Jeff Pesta became frustrated with investment professionals who offered market predictions that often turned out to be wrong. This led him to research active investment management strategies. He believes third-party active managers are best suited to implement sophisticated portfolio allocation and trading models. Pesta conducts rigorous due diligence on managers to evaluate their methodology and ability to implement their strategies. He selects managers focused on risk management to protect retiree clients from large drawdowns and volatility. Pesta believes active management performs best in clearly defined trending markets and can significantly outperform passive strategies in poor market years.
1. March 19, 2015 | Volume 5 | Issue 11
Active investment management’s weekly magazine
Dollar strength has
uncertain implications
Is it time
to retire your
strategy?
Converting positive feedback
into new business
The Anchored Momentum
Indicator in security analysis
Jeff Pesta
Lesson learned
Risk
management
comes first
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3. Advisor perspectives on active investment management
- A custodian that makes your life as an RIA simpler.
Real numbers
tell the real story
I will typically say to a client, let’s look at your returns
over three years, over five years, over ten years, and
even from inception. What’s the average return on
what you have been doing and what has the volatility
been? And then I review the historical performance
of some of our active managers and I say, okay, look
at what happened here in 2008. And look at what
happened to your fund in 2008. And those are real
numbers, apples to apples, not hypotheticals. So, if
that were to happen again, how would you want your
portfolio managed? 99.9% of the time the answer is
the actively managed approach.
LOUD & CLEAR
Michael Pennica • Colorado Springs, CO
Pennica Financial Group • J.W. Cole Advisors Inc.
3March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com
LOUD & CLEAR
5. here is so much to keep track of these
days. There is the crash in oil prices.
Terror attacks in Europe. Political
drama in Greece. Unexpected decline
in interest rates. Inflation expectations.
The QE program in Europe. The Fed’s next
move. China’s new stock market. The global
economy. And, of course, the latest earnings
season and expectations for the next one.
I want to take a moment to step back
from the news flow and the blinking screens
to talk about investing strategy. More specifi-
cally, I’d like to talk about the idea of investor
expectations.
Many investors (and their advisors) recently
assessed how their portfolios performed in 2014
and tried to decide if any adjustments were
needed for the new calendar year. But here’s the
problem. The vast majority of investors and a
great many investment professionals go about
this task the wrong way.
What’s your number?
Ask yourself, how do you review the
performance of your investments? Is there a
certain number you are looking for each year?
If so, have you done your homework and do
you know if that number is achievable on a
long-term basis? Have you studied up on the
historical returns of stocks, bonds, gold, real
estate, etc.?
Or do you compare your returns to the
popular indexes such as the S&P 500, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average, or the Russell 2000?
And if you do, should you be? For example, if
you have a diversified portfolio, is it really ap-
propriate to compare your holdings in stocks,
bonds, commodities, emerging markets, etc. to
a single index?
So, if you have a diversified portfolio, do you
create a blended benchmark for the portfolio that
represents the target allocations within your actual
holdings?Ifnot,youmaywanttoconsiderdoingso.
Let’s talk stock market returns
The point is that there is more to analyzing
a portfolio’s return than simply looking at the
S&P 500. For folks investing specifically in the
stock market, comparing results to the S&P
500 is a good place to start. However, it is most
definitely not the end-all, be-all number.
For example, if you hold mutual funds, do
you know the specific goal/strategy of the fund?
Do you know where the fund fits within the
“style box” universe? And perhaps, more im-
portantly, do you know how the benchmark for
that specific style box performed last year? To
be fair in your assessment of performance, you
really ought to know the style and the objective
of the fund/ETF/strategy you are using and
then compare accordingly.
Last year was a good example of this point.
The S&P 500 wound up with a gain of 11.39%
(and over 13% in total return). As such, most
investors believe it was a strong year for the
overall stock market. However, this was defi-
nitely not the case. While the S&P 500 put
up a double-digit return, the “generals” of the
market—represented by the DJIA—gained just
7.52%. And then the small caps, where so many
growth-oriented investors are focused, returned
3.69% (4.9% total return). So, as you can see,
not all stocks were created equal in 2014.
And this dichotomy got worse the further
away from a passive S&P strategy one strayed.
A difficult environment for some
By now you’ve probably seen the headlines that
2014 was not a good year for active managers. For
example, hedge funds had one of their weakest
yearsonrecord.TheHFREquityHedgeIndexsaw
a return of 2.26% last year. And the HFR Global
Hedge Fund Index was down 0.6% in 2014.
continue on pg. 11
T
2014 return performance for various asset classes and sectors
S&P 500 Total Return USD (SPY) 13.7%
Russell 2000 Total Return (IWM) 4.9%
High Yield Bonds (BofA HY Index) 2.5%
Fixed Income (Barclays U.S. Agg. Bond Index) 6.0%
S&P Utilities Index (UTIL) 29.0%
S&P Energy Index (ENRS) -7.8%
Emerging Market Index (MSCI EM) -1.8%
International Developed Index (MSCI EAFE) -4.5%
HFR Global Hedge Fund Index -0.6%
Cash (U.S. 3-mo T-Bill) 0.0%
Source: BlackRock, Yahoo! Finance, novelinvestor.com
March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 5
6.
7. Dollar strength
has uncertain
implications
he major market story of the past
few weeks has undoubtedly been the
acceleration in the strength of the U.S.
dollar, and the accompanying rapid
plunge in the euro.
The long-term implications are far from
clear, with a split camp of analysts coming at the
story from a variety of angles. However, as the
accompanying chart (through 3/14) illustrates,
while the dollar’s move higher has been swift, it is
not breaking historic new ground on an absolute
basis. A fair amount of market angst has been
created by the rapid nature of the ascent—lead-
ing to institutional traders being caught “out
of position,” which tends to accompany such
exaggerated moves.
Bespoke Investment Group says of the com-
plexity surrounding the dollar’s push higher, “The
bottom line: a strong dollar carries both risks
and opportunities, and is neither 100% good or
100% bad for the financial markets or the global
economy. That said, the shift will require adjust-
ment and risk management as global markets
once again become acclimated to ‘King Dollar’.”
Others are not quite so balanced in their
assessment.
“We are in a midst of an ugly contest to
see whether the Eurozone, Japan or Canada
can depreciate the most against the U.S. dollar,
T
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
and China is probably next,” writes Campbell
Harvey, finance professor at Duke University.
“U.S. exporters are being punished by these
competitive depreciations, and this will lead to
lower profits and less employment.”
On the other hand, financial news com-
mentator Larry Kudlow, who once served in
the Reagan administration, has long touted the
benefits of the dollar once again solidifying its
rightful position as “the world’s reserve currency.”
According to the WSJ, a stronger dollar hurts
the profit outlook for U.S.-based multinational
companies, in part by making their goods more
expensive and thus less competitive overseas. In
addition, as foreign currencies fall against the
dollar, the value of profits earned abroad is re-
duced. The direct impact on large-cap U.S. stocks
was seen last week, with the S&P 500 dropping
0.9%, while the small caps of the Russell 2000—
far less dependent on sales abroad—gained 1.2%.
Research firm FactSet has downgraded its
outlook for the upcoming Q1 2015 earnings
season, in part due to dollar strength, now saying
profits for S&P 500 companies will fall 4.9%,
versus an earlier call in December for profit
growth of 3.8%.
The final word, though, comes from technical
expert Tom McClellan who says, “If you think
you know the one true relationship between the
dollar and the stock market, you will be wrong
half the time.” According to Mr. McClellan, the
relationship historically flips from positive to in-
verse correlation, with the fundamental rationale
quite “elusive.”
USD INDEX (DXY): 1971-PRESENT
7March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com
TOPPING THE CHARTS
8. Lesson learned: Risk management comes first
Relying on market “predictions” can lead to undisciplined decision-making. Applying algorithmic
strategies—designed for asset protection—can smooth out long-term volatility and returns.
By David Wismer
Photography by Jay Watson
8 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | March 19, 2015
9. Jeff Pesta entered the financial services industry 22
years ago with one goal: Helping people better under-
stand and navigate the world of personal finance. With
a vision to build his firm based on trust and respect, Mr.
Pesta firmly believes he has far exceeded that objec-
tive.Mr.Pesta took over the tax practice his parents first
established in the 1970s and has expanded the firm to
offer a wide range of financial and investment services
through LPL Financial.
Mr. Pesta earned a bachelor’s degree from San Jose
State University with an emphasis in finance and eco-
nomics. He holds Series 7 and 66 registrations and is
a licensed agent for several insurance companies. Mr.
Pesta has extensive experience advising individuals,
families, and corporations and feels his specialty is
breaking down complex issues with a concise approach
to address financial concerns and opportunities.
“Putting my clients ahead of everything else has been
the foundation for my business,” Mr. Pesta says.“It has
enabled me and my firm to enjoy many years of suc-
cess in this community.”
Mr. Pesta and his wife Lisa reside in Gilroy, California.
They have twin boys, aged 18, a son, 22, and a daugh-
ter, 23, all of whom are “hard at work” with college or
graduate studies in California.
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF
San Jose, CA
Broker-dealer: LPL Financial
Licenses: 7, 66, L&H
Estimated AUM: $33M
Recognitions: Life Underwriter Training
Council Fellow
Proactive Advisor Magazine: Jeff, what
initially prompted your interest in active
investment management?
Jeff Pesta: In the late 1990s and early 2000s
I became very frustrated after hearing from
economists, mutual fund managers, and as-
sorted other investment professionals who were
offering expert opinion and advice at seminars
and conferences. They were sincere and well-in-
tentioned, but their messages were often off the
mark in terms of what was really happening
with the economy or the markets.
In my opinion, more often than not, what
they were positioning as ways to help clients make
investment decisions turned out to be the exact
opposite of what ultimately was the right direc-
tion. My frustration was hearing what seemed to
be a great story, explanation, or rationale and then
going back to try to manage investments based
on that—and not having success, left feeling very
foolish in front of my clients.
In the market declines surrounding 9/11 and
the dot-com bust, supposedly non-correlated
assets appeared to be correlated. Everything
basically went down hard, though some asset
classes or sectors were far worse than others.
I did my best to help manage clients’ investments
through that difficult period, but it was very
unwieldy and inefficient making multiple moves
across asset classes and alternatives for my clients.
I decided fairly quickly there had to be a
better way to manage investments than to count
on market “predictions” or to think a standard
diversified, asset-allocation approach would
afford the portfolio protection that is needed.
Where did that lead your
investment thinking?
I put a lot of time into doing my own
research on investment theory, technical
analysis, and portfolio allocations. In effect,
I became an “active manager” to the best of my
ability on behalf of my clients.
I became very knowledgeable and fairly
adept at money management, but it goes
back to efficiency and my own time manage-
ment. Managing investments across diverse
client needs, risk profiles, and objectives is a
full-time responsibility best put in the hands
of the real experts. I have become a strong
advocate of third-party active investment
management.
I conduct my own due diligence of
managers, in addition to that performed by LPL
Financial, and look for those managers who I
think are best-in-class. Based on everything I
know about sound investing in today’s markets,
these managers have the ability to put together
the portfolio allocations and trading implemen-
tation with the software, algorithms, staff, and
models to manage money the way I think it
should be managed across my client base. Yes,
there are fees involved, but I think you get what
you pay for and it is well worth it.
How do you go about selecting
third-party managers?
The overall criteria are pretty simple in
concept, but the investigation is not. I need
answers to two basic questions: 1) is their meth-
odology well-developed and their strategies in
sync with the objectives I want for my clients,
and 2) can they implement the way they say
they will. As part of this, I tend to drive the
process in terms of researching and interview-
ing potential managers. I also want to speak to
their staff—the people actually developing the
portfolio models and trading strategies. It is a
very rigorous process.
What is the benefit to your clients?
Most of my clients are planning for re-
tirement or already retired. The number-one
benefit is the risk management element of
active management—how does the manager’s
approach perform during down markets? My
clients cannot afford, literally and emotionally,
to sustain 30, 40, or 50% drawdowns to their
portfolios. In my opinion they also are not
well-served by a buy-and-hold approach that
essentially went nowhere.
I explain to clients that active manage-
ment performs best when there is a clearly
continue on pg. 10
“There is a better way
to manage investments
than counting on market
predictions or a standard
asset-allocation approach.”
9March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com
10. Jeff Pesta is a Registered Representative with and Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal.
No strategy ensures success or protects against a loss. Pesta & Pesta Tax Preparation is a separate unaffiliated entity from LPL Financial.
defined trending market—either a bull trend
or a bear trend. The strategies we use will not
catch the totality of every move in either type
of market, but they are formulated to help
in better managing volatility. The difference
in performance can be especially magnified
in very poor market years, where the return
spread between an active approach and a pas-
sive approach has been very significant. Over
the long term, we should see those factors
play out in the bottom line growth of clients’
portfolios.
Do you use active money management
for most of your clients?
I do not want to generalize too much, as
all of my clients have their own unique needs
and objectives. I think one of my strengths is
drilling down and understanding those needs
and building a plan that seeks to increase the
probability of success. That plan can have
some different elements, including things like
annuities for an income stream.
But one of the benefits of using third-party
managers is that they can accommodate both
very conservative and more aggressive inves-
tors, blending combinations of strategies and
asset classes. Using various tools provided by
our managers can help clients understand an
expected range of performance over a relative-
ly extended time period.
Giving clients the knowledge that we are
trying to put probabilities in their favor is
a very effective and reassuring message for
my practice.
continued from pg. 9
Jeff Pesta
10 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | March 19, 2015
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In addition, some very big names in the active space got spanked
last year. One firm, which manages in excess of $5 billion, saw their
flagship strategy fall more than 20.5% during the 2014 calendar
year.
Next, according to a report from Bank of America Merrill
Lynch, a measurement of the alpha (the risk-adjusted return above
the overall stock market’s return) in the market hit the lowest level
in more than 30 years last year.
The point here is that the S&P 500’s return didn’t really tell the
story of how the year went for those active managers attempting to
manage risk and create some alpha.
What’s an investor to do?
So, what do you do if your portfolio underperformed the S&P
500? Fire the manager? Quit the strategy? Move into a different
fund/ETF? Write a nasty note telling the manager how disappointed
you are?
The next point might be tough to take for some. You see, there
is no such thing as a silver bullet in this business. Sorry, but there
is not a “Holy Grail” fund/manager/ETF/strategy that wins year in
and year out, without ever letting you down.
And yet, this is what a lot of investors think they should be
receiving from their funds/advisors.
continued from pg. 5
continue on pg. 13
Time to retire?
This too shall pass
Behavioral finance reminds us that ignoring daily
volatility roiling the markets is wise—avoiding
the overreaction that Nobel laureate Daniel
Kahneman warns against.
The global stock-bond
disconnect
What are the implications stemming from the
great disconnect of global equity highs and record
low real interest rates?
Black Swans posing the
biggest market threats
Economists at Société Générale attempt to identify
a few scenarios that could blindside markets around
the world.
L NKS WEEK
March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 11
12. The Anchored Momentum Indicator
Ron Rowland is the founder of All Star Investor, an online investment advisory service, and serves as its executive editor. He is also Chief Investment Officer of Capital
Cities Asset Management. Quoted widely in the financial press, Mr. Rowland is an industry expert for sector rotation insight and actively managed ETF strategies.
www.allstarinvestor.com
hen I started developing a mutual
fund selection and trading system
in the mid-1980s, I wanted to
own the funds that were going up
and avoid the ones going down.
Therefore, I quickly gravitated toward price
momentum as an indicator and selection tool.
One of the first things I noticed was that typical
momentum indicators are very noisy. A 21-day
momentum measurement is determined from
just two data points—the current price and
the price 21 days ago. For example, if Fund A
had a $20.00 price 21 days ago and it is $21.00
today, then its 21-day price momentum is 5.0%
(percentage change of price over 21 days).
Problems arise when the two price points
used in the calculation move in different di-
rections the following day. Suppose that after
one additional day of market action the current
price goes up a nickel to $21.05 and the look-
back price drops to $19.00. Even though Fund
A is still on the same trend and has the same
momentum as the day before, its 21-day price
momentum calculation has now more than
doubled to 10.8%. This becomes especially
troublesome when using the calculation as a
ranking and selection mechanism across multi-
ple fund choices. The daily noise in Fund A may
be in the opposite direction of Fund B, leading
to inaccurate comparisons and unnecessary
trading.
One way to reduce such rapid variations is to
use a moving average of the 21-day momentum
reading. While this will indeed make the indica-
tor less volatile, it also introduces an undesirable
lag. Instead of applying a moving average to
the 21-day percentage price difference, my ap-
proach is to calculate the momentum between
the current price and its moving average. This
allows the most recent data (today’s price) to
be used without any lag while smoothing out
the historical data and in turn smoothing the
momentum calculation. Applying this to the
previous example above, instead of using the
W
price from 21 days ago as the reference point,
I would use a 42-day moving average as the ref-
erence point. Since the 42-day moving average
is probably not going to move more than five
cents per day in this example, our following day
momentum calculation will still be very close to
5.0%.
I was using this momentum approach for
about a dozen years to choose sector funds and
typically just referred to it as my selection meth-
odology. Then I came across a 1998 article in
Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities by
Rudy Stefenel. He described an “anchored mo-
mentum” indicator that used a moving average
as the reference for deriving momentum, there-
by anchoring it to that moving average rather
than a single day’s closing price. I liked the name
and description and have been referring to this
as “anchored momentum” ever since.
Anchored momentum can be used with any
data interval (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) and a
wide range of periods (20, 50, 200, etc). I used
the 21-day and 42-day example above purely for
discussion, and many people would consider
them relatively short-term in nature. Long-term
traders might want to use 50-week or 200-day
anchored momentum, and intermediate-term
traders are more likely to be successful with
other values.
The included chart shows the SPDA S&P
500 ETF (SPY) over a recent six-month period.
On January 16, the traditional Lookback
Momentum Indicator in red registered an
interim peak. This is clearly a false indication
of a short-term peak in momentum, because
the SPY was actually establishing a short-term
low at that time. The Anchored Momentum
Indicator in blue does a much better job of
handling this volatility and accurately reflecting
the changing market conditions. This is why I
always prefer using anchored momentum in my
security analysis.
Proactive Advisor Magazine presents weekly commentary provided by well-known market analysts, financial authors, investment newsletter publishers, and economists. The opinions expressed
each week represent their personal perspectives and not necessarily those of the magazine.
Source: AllStarInvestor.com
proactiveadvisormagazine.com | March 19, 201512
HOW I SEE IT
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continued from pg. 11
There is a price for admission …
Here’s the really big point: If you are imple-
menting a strategy that attempts to do much
of anything other than buy-and-hold the S&P
500 (for example, trying to avoid the nastiness
that occurs in bear market environments AND
outperform the S&P over time) you need to
understand that there will be times when you
have to pay the price of admission for such
aspirations.
There will be times when things just don’t
go your way. There will be times when you are
frustrated or disappointed. If you want to have
your cake and eat it too in this game, you need
to understand that there will be bumps in the
road. And this is what I deem the real secret
to long-term investing success—understanding
the game and having the proper expectations.
The bottom line is that ALL investment ap-
proaches/strategies/styles underperform from
time to time—even those of Warren Buffett,
the man perceived as the greatest investor of his
generation.
With that said, does it still make sense to
compare everything to the S&P 500 or to that
number in your head? Wouldn’t it make more
sense to actually compare apples to apples—to
compare what you are trying to accomplish to
an appropriate benchmark?
So, before you send that scathing email to
your financial advisor for underperforming the
S&P 500 last year, you may want to do some
homework. Be sure to first identify what your
overall objective was. And then determine how
other strategies similar to yours performed.
If your portfolio lost 20% when most others
in the class produced returns within a couple
percent of breakeven, then by all means, fire
that manager or quit that strategy.
However, if you were planning to fire the
manager/fund/ETF/strategy because it failed
to outperform the S&P 500 last year—while
the return was within the norm of returns for
the style utilized—you may want to give that
decision a second thought.
Time to retire?
Dave Moenning is the founder of StateoftheMarkets.com. In addition to
providing free and subscription-based portfolios on “State,” Dave is a
full-time money manager and the president and Chief Investment Strategist
of the Chicago-based RIA firm, Heritage Capital Management.
What do you
do if your portfolio
underperformed
the S&P 500?
Editor’s note:
This article was first published at StateoftheMarkets.com, January 13, 2015.
13March 19, 2015 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com