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AT&T to Acquire Time Warner - Comment

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Telecom Service/Media: AT&T to acquire Time Warner
- US-based telco AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner will be an industry game changer
- Note growing investment in premium content (a growth driver for ICT ecosystem)
- Focus on CJ E&M’s efforts to improve original content and telcos’ media expansion

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AT&T to Acquire Time Warner - Comment

  1. 1. Implications of AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner Last weekend, AT&T announced it intends to buy Time Warner for US$85.4bn (W97tr; US$107.5/share), a 36% premium to Time Warner’s current share price. We believe the deal will be a game changer in the telecom service and media industry. 1) We believe the information and communications technology (ICT) ecosystem is entering a growth phase driven by content investment. In particular, vertical integration of infrastructure, platforms, and content is picking up speed. 2) Not just any content, but premium video content holds the key to success in the evolving ICT ecosystem. 3) Telcos are taking diverse approaches to media investment. Currently, telcos are focused on the IPTV (platform) business, while content investments have generally been confined to individual projects and small firms. However, AT&T’s acquisition of media giant Time Warner would signify a much deeper penetration into the content business by a telecom operator. Premium content to be a premium factor for stocks 1) Content industry: Companies providing premium content that can generate steady mobile video traffic are likely to receive a premium. 2) Telecom service industry: The mobile video business is anticipated to lift off. For telecom carriers, monetization of video traffic can be accomplished not just through data usage but also through advertising and subscription fees. In the past, telcos tended to languish after growing on network expansion. 3) AT&T: Purchasing Time Warner will enable AT&T to diversify revenue sources, save costs, and expand into the content business, which is less vulnerable to regulations. However, the company has to overcome disputes over the high acquisition price and financing burden. 4) Time Warner: The acquisition by AT&T will allow Time Warner to provide users with easier access to mobile content, diversify markets, and improve negotiating power. On the negative side, Time Warner could lose revenue-generating opportunities from other platforms due to overlapping interests. Figure 1. AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner from perspective of industry and each company Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Telecom Service/Media (Overweight/Maintain) AT&T to acquire Time Warner US-based telco AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner will be an industry game changer Note growing investment in premium content (a growth driver for ICT ecosystem) Focus on CJ E&M’s efforts to improve original content and telcos’ media expansion Issue Comment October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Telecom Service / Media] Jee-hyun Moon +822-768-3615 jeehyun.moon@miraeasset.com Nu-ri Ha +822-768-4130 nuri.ha@miraeasset.com
  2. 2. Telecom Service/Media 2 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research ICT/media ecosystem entering content investment phase The global media ecosystem is now entering a content investment-driven growth phase, after building the necessary infrastructure and achieving scale through platforms. The same can be said for the ICT ecosystem. Amid waning consumer enthusiasm for more advanced hardware, software and content have now become the key differentiators. AT&T, having completing its communication network infrastructure, has beefed up its platform business by expanding its IPTV service (U-Verse) and acquiring satellite-TV operator DirecTV last year. With its bid for Time Warner, the carrier is now setting its sights on the content business. Netflix, a major new media player, is also focusing on content. As an over-the-top (OTT) service, the company was able to bypass infrastructure spending, and has been focused on expanding its platform globally. It is now aiming to create the world’s most extensive original and UHD content lineup. China’s Wanda Group and Korea’s CJ Group have been following similar paths (infrastructure investment platform content), with both currently focusing on content. Figure 2. Investment pattern in media ecosystem: Infrastructure → platform → content Source: Respective companies’ data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Not just any content is king; Focus on premium video content The familiar adage that content is king may need a bit more nuanced reworking. In the mobile age, we believe those with premium video content—content that can create a spark in traffic and build customer loyalty—will win the battle for traffic. Video is the primary driver behind global mobile data traffic. Figure 3. Global mobile video traffic trend and forecast Source: Ericsson, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 10 20 30 40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F 21F (%)(EB/month) Mobilevideotraffic(L) Proportionof videointotal mobiledatatraffic(R)
  3. 3. Telecom Service/Media 3 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Telcos taking diverse approaches to media investments Telcos’ investments in media businesses are taking diverse forms. Many telcos have focused on the pay-TV market, including IPTV, as a platform in the media value chain. As for content, most telcos’ investments have been confined to individual projects and small firms. For example, Verizon, AT&T’s major competitor in the US telecom service market, has been focusing on internet platform and digital ad solutions, as evidenced by its acquisitions of AOL and Yahoo. For content, Verizon has tried to appeal to the millennial generation (born from 1981-1996) by investing in small firms, including multi-channel networks (third-party service providers that manage internet content creators’ copyrights) such as Awesomeness TV, Vice, and Millennial Media. Meanwhile, AT&T’s planned acquisition of Time Warner would signal a penetration into the traditional content market. We believe the company wants stable access to a massive reservoir of content, rather than just individual content supply contracts. Of note, we believe AT&T’s purpose in acquiring Time Warner was revealed in its statement that “the future of video is mobile and the future of mobile is video.” Among Korean telcos, KT appears similar to AT&T, given that AT&T is dominant in the fixed-line telecom market and owns a satellite broadcasting network. In the wireless telecom market, the company ranks second after Verizon. We think AT&T is betting on video content via Time Warner to achieve growth in the mobile era. Figure 4. AT&T’s approach to and status of media business investment: Infrastructure → platform → acquisition of largecontent company Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5. Verizon’s approach to and status of media business investment: Infrastructure → platform → digital ad solutions + content investments in relatively small firms Source: Verizon, mediareports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
  4. 4. Telecom Service/Media 4 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Merger to be a win-win The acquisition deal’s roots can be traced in the recent business trends of AT&T and Time Warner. At AT&T, the media business has been driving up earnings. Since the acquisition of DirecTV in 2H15, the company has been enjoying growth in both revenue and operating profit. We attribute the growth to the bolstering of platform businesses (satellite TV in addition to IPTV) based on the fixed-line unit’s expansive broadband internet coverage (infrastructure). Recently, the company established infrastructure for the mobile unit’s 4G LTE services. In an effort to enhance the added value of the mobile businesses, AT&T will likely shift its attention to digital video content. Time Warner’s 2015 revenue was broken down into broadcast (56%) and film (44%). The film unit posted sizable revenue despite the highly volatile nature of the business. In 1H16, however, film revenue contracted and the broadcast unit recorded only single-digit growth in revenue. The merger with AT&T should boost the company’s digital revenue via mobile distribution of its content and also push up overseas revenue thanks to DirecTV’s coverage of Latin America. Table 1. AT&T’s major businesses’ status and income statement: Simultaneous rise in revenue and OP after acquiring satellite broadcast service provider DirecTV in 2H15 (US$mn) 2014 2015 YoY 1H15 1H16 YoY Totalrevenue 132,447 146,801 11% 65,591 81,055 24% 1) Telecom service/B2B solutions 70,606 71,127 1% 35,221 35,188 0% Wireless 37,223 38,640 4% 18,957 19,364 2% Fixed-line 33,383 32,487 -3% 16,264 15,824 -3% 2) Entertainment/internet 22,233 35,294 59% 11,442 25,369 122% 3) B2C telecom service 36,744 35,066 -5% 17,533 16,514 -6% 4) International telecom service/video - 4,102 - 727 3,495 381% 5) Other 2,839 1,212 -57% 668 489 -27% OP 11,827 24,785 110% 11,330 13,691 21% Note:SatellitebroadcasterDirecTVhasbeenincorporatedintoconsolidatedbasissince2H15afteritwasacquired. Source:AT&T,Bloomberg,MiraeAssetDaewooResearch Table 2. Time Warner’s major businesses’ status and income statement: Film unit makes a sizable revenue contribution, but has been contracting recently; Broadcasting revenue displays low growth, with a low proportion of overseas revenue (US$mn) 2014 2015 YoY 1H15 1H16 YoY Totalrevenue 28,320 29,203 3% 14,475 14,260 -1% 1) Film: Warner Bros. 12,526 12,992 4% 6,497 5,767 -11% 1-1) Theater content 5,839 5,143 -12% 2,728 2,321 -15% Theater revenue 1,969 1,578 -20% 1,043 809 -22% DVD,VOD 1,913 1,717 -10% 830 542 -35% TVlicense fee 1,686 1,579 -6% 747 838 12% Merchandise and other 271 269 -1% 108 132 22% 1-2) TV content 5,099 5,635 11% 2,656 2,628 -1% 1-3) Game and other 1,588 2,214 39% 1,113 818 -27% 2)Broadcasting: Networks 15,794 16,211 3% 8,373 8,889 6% Subscription fee 9,841 10,054 2% 5,050 5,464 8% Advertising 4,568 4,637 2% 2,451 2,580 5% Content 1,183 1,315 11% 761 731 -4% 2-1) Turner Network 10,396 10,596 2% 5,537 5,916 7% Subscription fee 5,263 5,306 1% 2,690 2,975 11% Advertising 4,568 4,637 2% 2,451 2,580 5% Content 370 455 23% 289 251 -13% 2-2)HBO Network 5,398 5,615 4% 2,836 2,973 5% Subscription fee 4,578 4,748 4% 2,360 2,489 5% Content 813 860 6% 472 480 2% *Domestic revenuefrombroadcast subscriptionfee/advertising 12,336 12,789 4% 6,568 7,130 9% *Overseas revenue frombroadcast subscriptionfee/advertising 2,073 1,902 -8% 933 914 -2% Total OP 5,833 6,923 19% 3,676 3,772 3% 1) Film: WarnerBros. 1,248 1,435 15% 674 643 -5% 2) Broadcasting:Networks 4,896 5,988 22% 3,224 3,339 4% Removalofinternaltransaction and loss -311 -500 61% -222 -210 -5% Note: Excluding“other” revenue within broadcastingunit, due to its smallscale; Source: Time Warner, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
  5. 5. Telecom Service/Media 5 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Future outlook and main points Through the deal, AT&T is expected to further diversify its portfolio, reduce expenses, and expand into the content business, which is less vulnerable to regulations. The company is highly dependent on the slowing telecom business. Indeed, telecom services accounted for 68% of revenue in 1H16, with IPTV/satellite TV contributing 31%. The acquisition of Time Warner is anticipated to lessen the percentage of the telecom business in revenue by 10%p to 58%, with the contribution of media rising to 42% (IPTV/satellite TV 27%; content 15%). Risks include the high acquisition cost, financing burden, and uncertainties over the deal’s regulatory approval. As for Time Warner, the merger should improve users’ access to mobile content, diversify the company’s overseas markets, and enhance its bargaining power. Based on AT&T’s mobile service subscribers, the company should be able to boost digital revenue. Its overseas revenue is also likely to increase thanks to DirecTV’s coverage of the Latin American market. After acquiring DirecTV, AT&T introduced products bundled with satellite TV services to its existing subscribers. Time Warner should also be able to bundle its TV channels and mobile apps, including HBO NOW, with AT&T services. However, the deal might depress opportunities to increase revenue by expanding into other platforms, as being a subsidiary of AT&T might cause conflicts of interest. Figure 6. Expected change in AT&T’s revenue breakdown: Lower dependency on telecom service revenue, with contribution of media revenue rising to 42% Notes: Basedon sum of each company’s revenue in 1H16; ExpectingIPTV (entertainment andhigh-speedinternet) to include revenue from DirecTV andU-Verse; Mediarevenue includes IPTV/satellite andcontent Source: Respective companies’ data; Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 7. Traffic trends of major Korean for-pay mobile video apps: Apps provided by telcos ranked highly overall → App businesses to take off if AT&T acquires Time Warner Note: Basedon total amount of monthly usage time Source: KoreanClick, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 10/15 12/15 2/16 4/16 6/16 8/16 (mnminutes) oksusu(SKTelecom) pooq(pooq, terrestrial) LGU+LTEvideoportal KTOllehtvmobile Tving(CJE&M)
  6. 6. Telecom Service/Media 6 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research CJ E&M’s original content business and telcos’ media business expansion deserve attention The AT&T-Time Warner deal is anticipated to help boost the valuation premiums of companies that produce/distribute premium content capable of generating steady mobile video traffic. In Korea, CJ E&M is strengthening its presence in the premium content segment, splitting off its drama unit, Studio Dragon, to focus on drama production. Studio Dragon is planning an IPO to expand its business. We should also note telcos’ growing focus on the media business. Previously, a telco’s role in the mobile video business was limited to providing a telecom network. However, telcos are now taking better advantage of mobile video traffic, with the monetization model expanding from telecom networks to advertising and subscription fees. Indeed, all three major Korean telcos—SK Telecom (017670), KT (030200), and LG Uplus (032640)—have strengthened their mobile video services since the introduction of LTE. Looking ahead, we expect to see more investments in their media businesses, including M&As. Figure 8. CJ E&M split off its drama unit, Studio Dragon, to focus on original drama production; Studio Dragon is planning an IPO Source: Company data, mediareports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 3. Korean telcos’ media business status SK Telecom KT LG Uplus Service ∙ SK Btv,oksusu(mobile) ∙ 3.77mnIPTV subscribers (pay-TVmarket share: About 13%) ∙ KTOllehtv,Ollehtvmobile ∙ 6.81mnIPTV subscribers + 4.34mnSkylife subscribers (pay-TVmarket share: About 30%) ∙ U+tv G,LTEvideoportal ∙ 2.42mnIPTV subscribers (pay-TVmarket share: About 8%) Content ∙ B tvkidzone:Animation ∙ Allgenres,including movies/dramas, sports/leisure,documentaries,foreign content (real-timebroadcasting on around 80 channels) ∙ Channel-specific content (CJ E&M,JTBC, etc.) ∙ Broadcasting 60Disneyprograms ∙ Secured 4,000DreamWorks titles (including VOD) ∙ Broadest full HD channellineup 160,000VODs ∙ Children’s and educationalcontent ∙ Most free moviecontent ∙ Exclusive contract with Sony Pictures; Simultaneousbroadcasting ofUSdramas ∙ Uflixprovides around 22,000recentmovies and popularHBOdramas ∙ 20,000 animations, 12,000kids’programs, etc. ExclusivedistributorofDisneyand StarWars ∙ ExclusivedistributorofsevenmajorUS studios’ contentincluding NBC Universal contentinKorea (simultaneousbroadcast) ∙ Providing popularJapanese (inpartnership withFujiTelevision)and Chinesedramas Multi- channel network (MCN) ∙ Launching mobile MCNplatformHotzil ∙ Providing in-housecontentproduced in partnership withDIATV ∙ Launched PowerYouTuber service Virtual reality (VR) ∙ Providing 360-degreeVRservices Planning in-houseproductionofVRmovies ∙ Providing AR and VRintegrated content for production and TRealplatform ∙ Providing 360-degreeVRreal-time content for KTWizbaseballteam ∙ Planning toprovide 200piecesofVRmobile content thisyear ∙ Operating VRgamepromotion center ∙ Working toprovideVRVODs ∙ Planning toproduceVRcontentforadults Strategy ∙ Expanding subscribers ofB tv and oksusu ∙ Increasing originalcontentproduction ∙ Offeringpremium services (GIGAUHD) targeting high-end customers ∙ Increasing ARPUbylaunching videodata plans Note: Number of subscribers is basedon end-2Q16. Source: Respective companies’ data, mediareports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
  7. 7. Telecom Service/Media 7 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History Company(Code) Date Rating TargetPrice Company(Code) Date Rating TargetPrice CJE&M(130960) 08/11/2015 Buy 110,000 05/02/2016 Buy 37,000 07/26/2015 Buy 100,000 01/31/2016 Buy 35,000 05/11/2015 Buy 80,000 11/01/2015 Trading Buy 35,000 03/29/2015 Buy 70,000 08/02/2015 Buy 39,000 02/06/2015 Buy 51,000 01/20/2015 Buy 40,000 11/26/2014 Buy 48,000 10/01/2014 Buy 42,000 No Coverage LG Uplus(032640) 04/05/2016 Buy 14,000 SK Telecom(017670) 04/29/2016 Buy 280,000 02/01/2016 Buy 13,000 02/02/2016 Buy 300,000 07/31/2015 Buy 15,000 07/31/2015 Buy 350,000 04/28/2015 Buy 14,000 05/06/2015 Buy 360,000 01/25/2015 Buy 16,000 10/01/2014 Buy 380,000 10/01/2014 Buy 15,000 KT(030200) 06/03/2016 Buy 40,000 Equity Ratings Distribution Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell 69.27% 17.07% 13.66% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of September 30, 2016) Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates own 1% or more of KT`s shares outstanding. Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 (W) CJ E&M 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 (W) SK Telecom 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 (W) KT 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 (W) LG Uplus
  8. 8. Telecom Service/Media 8 October 27, 2016 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 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Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 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Telecom Service/Media: AT&T to acquire Time Warner - US-based telco AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner will be an industry game changer - Note growing investment in premium content (a growth driver for ICT ecosystem) - Focus on CJ E&M’s efforts to improve original content and telcos’ media expansion

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