From a 5 days intensive futures course I created for BA students at London College of Communication

1. Futures
Rakhi Rajani
rakhi@humaneditions.com
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

2. I am a
Chartered Psychologist
working in
Design
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

3. I
Study Human Behaviour
and
Identify Global Trends
to
Design Solutions
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

4. 5 Day Intensive
Day 1
- Predicting the future?
Day 2
- Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future
Day 3
- Developing a scenario
Day 4
- Presenting your ideas
Day 5
- Final presentations & Feedback
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

5. Assignment
Develop a future scenario for
2032
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

6. Deliverables
• 30 min GROUP presentation on Day 5
• Hand this in as a hard copy and on CD
• This should include referenced research,
statistics, quotes etc.
• Each INDIVIDUAL person to hand in
500 words on the relevance (including
advantages and pitfalls) of Futures/
Forecasting in Design.
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

7. Resource Files
http://db.tt/tvB3Z8S2
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

8. Day 1
Predicting the Future?
Lecture on
1030 - 1145 Forecasting, Trends &
STEEP Analysis
1145 - 1200 Break
1200 - 1300 Assignment Briefing
1300 - 1400 Lunch
1400 - 1600 Group Work
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

9. When you think
‘future’, what comes to
mind?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

10. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

11. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

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13. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

14. We all have very similar
ideas about the future.
It involves clever
technology, digital
interfaces, robots, etc
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

15. It’s all very ‘sci fi’
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

16. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

17. But what else
influences the future?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

18. Drivers of Change...
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

19. Why Forecast?
• As designers, our vision of the future affects
society because we build the interactions that
people will have.
• We influence trends and define directions in the
visual fields of fashion, music, youth culture,
interiors
• We build social futures and influence
demographic change through technological
innovation
• We influence markets
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

20. Forecasting allows us to
explore possibilities
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

21. Arthur C. Clarke 1964 (Part1)
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

22. Arthur C. Clarke 1964 (Part2)
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

23. But it can take a while
for these possibilities to
be built
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

24. Apple Knowledge Navigator 1987
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

25. Driverless Cars
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

26. Predicting vs
Forecasting
Prediction = Making a statement about
what will happen with some certainty. This
can be a hunch or superstition, or...
Forecasting = How hidden currents in the
present might signal change for society,
companies, the world etc in the future. There
is logic and evidence in good forecasts.
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

27. The trouble with
predictions
Alan Sugar believed the iPod faced imminent
doom when interviewed in the Daily
Telegraph in February 2005, declaring it
would be "dead, finished, gone" by the
following Christmas.
The ten worst IT predictions of all time, PC Pro magazine, 26 Sept 2006
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

28. Your Assignment
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

29. In 2032...
What is the future of:
• Group 1 - Travelling abroad
• Group 2 - Home entertainment
• Group 3 - Personal communication
• Group 4 - University education
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

30. Research
• Primary/Social - go out and find out about the
context
• ask people
• get a history
• Secondary/Stats - on how industries are changing
• Economist, FT, Wired etc
• World Economic Forum

31. Read/Review
1. For ethics, watch Google Baby: http://
www.channel4.com/programmes/google-baby/
2. For examples of what exists now, watch Home of the
Future: http://www.homeofthefuture.tv
3. Read/Review at 3 of the articles/videos/books in the
resources document
4. Look at the BT technology timeline: http://
www.btplc.com/innovation/news/timeline/
5. Read: http://newspaper.li/the-future/
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

32. For Wednesday...
1. Bring in magazines with people, objects, spaces etc in
them. We will need them for the workshop
2. Give a 10 minute presentation on what major STEEP
drivers you have identified that you believe will
affect the future of your area in the next 20 years
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

33. The best way to predict the
future, is to invent it
- Alan Kay
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

34. Day 2
Creating Worlds & Persona’s
+ Projecting these into the future
Lecture on Persona &
1000 - 1130
World Development
1130 - 1145 Break
Progress
1145 - 1300
Presentations
1300 - 1400 Lunch
1400 - 1600 Workshop
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

35. First Step to
Building a Scenario
• Define the world as it is now
• Define people as they are now
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

36. The world
• How does the world work now?
• How do people interact in this world?
• What are the elements, tools, methods?
• What are the characteristics?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

37. Persona
• Fictional character that represents a group
of people
• A ‘typical’ participant in your world
• eg, if drivers say that 80% of the population will be over 70, is your persona in this age range or
the other?
• Helps you tell your story
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

38. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://marketing.yell.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Persona-example-1.jpg

39. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://www.azinno.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/persona-01.png

40. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012 http://robertgirvin.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/bUserInterfaceIgigiUserPersona.jpg

41. Projecting into
the future
• Take the world as it is now and apply the drivers of change
• Take the persona as it is now and apply the drivers of change
• Decide how the drivers of change affect the world and the
people and then redefine them
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

42. Give your future
world a name
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

43. Describe your
future world
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

44. For Friday...
1. Finish defining your persona and world
2. Give a 10 minute presentation on where your world
and persona are now & initial thoughts on your
scenario
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

45. Day 3
Developing a scenario
1000 - 1130 Lecture on Scenarios
1130 - 1145 Break
1145 - 1300 Progress
Presentations
1300 - 1400 Lunch
1400 - 1600 Workshop
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

46. What is a Scenario
• Story
• Discourse
• Commentary
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

47. Story
• WHAT is told
• Sequence of events that happen in a likely order, duration and
frequency
• Characters
• Engaging
• Unfolds over time and in place(s)
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

48. Touch points
Character(s)
Character(s)
Character(s)
Character(s)
Character(s)
Character(s)
TIME
Character Object Service Service Object Nature
EPISODE
CONTEXT
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

49. Structure, Suspense, Laughter
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

50. Discourse
• HOW a story is told
• The choice and arrangement of events and plots, the language and
perspective of the narrator
• Narrative techniques (expression, vocabulary, style of
communication)contribute to completely different representations
of the same story
• There are many discourses on any particular subject
• Discourse Analysis is attributed to the French philosopher Michel
Foucault (1926-1984)
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

51. Commentary
• A point of view
• Your take on the meaning of something
• The expression of opinion or explanation of events,
situations etc
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

52. Futures Scenario
=
Raw Materials (Story)
+
Shape of Story (Discourse)
to
Create a Point of View on the Future (Commentary)
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

53. Memorable Stories
The best story you ever heard? - meaning
The story you remember? - emotion
The story you want to remember? - feeling
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

54. Pick the appropriate
medium
Video
Book
Animation
Storyboard
...
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

55. Future Scenarios Tech
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

56. Future Scenarios Sixth Sense
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

57. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

58. The Future That
Never Happened
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_future_ferrell/all/1
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

59. The world of ???
from what it is
to what it will be
Travelling Abroad 2012 Drivers 2032
Home Entertainment 2012 Drivers 2032
Personal Communications
2012 Drivers 2032
University Education
2012 Drivers 2032
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

60. Scenario
How will the world work?
What objects, services, people etc...
The Scenario
Describe the experience of being in this world
What will the world look like?
Is it dark, sunny, derelict, polished etc...
What is the story?
How does it unfold over time?
What are the touch-points with objects, products,
services and other people?
What will people do?
What will people feel, think etc...
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

61. Think About
Travelling Abroad
• Travelling Abroad • What happens if
• What restrictions
they get stopped
will be in place?
• What will travel at a border?
be?
• Will there be • How will you eat
when you travel?
• Who will travel? borders?
• Why? • Who will be • How fast or slow
will the means of
regulating travel?
travel be?
• By what medium?
• Will there be
• ...
• For how long? travel retail?
• How will people • What luggage if • ...
cross borders? any?
• ...
• What will the • Who will people
• ...
vehicle look like? travel with?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

62. Think About
•
Home Entertainment
Home
Entertainment
• Is it more digital
• What is
or analogue? • How are people
social? How does
entertainment?
• What devices if home
entertainment
any?
• What is home converge with the
entertainment?
• Is it family physical world
outside of the
entertainment or
• What do people
individual? home?
do in their homes?
• How do • ...
• What is the
entertainment
relationship
between
mediums • ...
converge?
entertainment and
work? • ...
• What happens
• What modes of
when you are not • ...
being entertained?
entertainment
exist?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

63. Think About
Personal Comms
• Personal
Communications • What mediums? • How will everyone
from kids to adults
• What is • How will identify communicate?
communicating people?
• If we are robots,
• What is personal • Will we need to what will we need
to convey?
communication? identify people?
• Who will need to • How will • ...
communicate? communications
differ locally or • ...
• What will we globally?
communicate • ...
about? • Will it be in the
form of voice, • ...
• How often will we visuals, gestures,
need to
communicate?
something else? • ...
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

64. Think About
University Education
• University • What will it cost?
Education
• Who will teach? • What materials
• What is the point will people use?
of education? • How will they
teach? • What degree’s will
• Who will be universities offer?
educated? • What will people
learn? • Will they be local
• Why will people or global?
be educated? • Where will people
go? • ...
• How long will
university • What will a • ...
education last? campus look like?
• ...
• What will you • What will a
‘earn’ from lecture/seminar/ • ...
university studio room look
education? like?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

65. Day 4
Presenting your ideas
1000 - 1030 Presenting Ideas
1030 - 1300 Group Work
1300 - 1400 Lunch
Progress
1400 - 1430
Presentations
1430 - 1600 Group Work
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

66. Day 5 Presentations
• How did you get to your scenario?
• Research
• Drivers
• Persona’s in 2012/2032
• Story world in 2012/2032
• Scenario of the future
• The repercussions of your future
• What will happen as a result?
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

67. Presenting your ideas
• Tell a story about your story!
• Present items in a logical manner
• We should be able to see the
progression and it should make sense
• The step before should influence the
step after
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

68. Steve Jobs Presentations

69. Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

70. Day 5
Final presentations & Feedback
All groups MUST be present at all presentations
Group 1
1100 - 1200
Travelling Abroad
Group 2
1200 - 1300
Home Entertainment
1300 - 1400 Lunch
Group 3
1400 - 1500
Personal Comms
Group 4
1500 - 1600
University Education
Rakhi Rajani :: LCC Futures Module :: 5 Day Intensive :: February 2012

71. LCC Futures Course Brief & Resources
Rakhi Rajani
rakhi@humaneditions.com
5 Day Intensive
Day 1 - Predicting the future?
Day 2 - Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future
Day 3 - Developing a scenario
Day 4 - Presenting your ideas
Day 5 - Final presentations & Feedback
Assignment
Develop a future scenario for 2032. What is the future of:
Group 1 - Travelling abroad
Group 2 - Home entertainment
Group 3 - Personal communication
Group 4 - University education
Deliverables
1. Hand in your future scenario as a hard copy and on CD. This should include referenced
research, statistics, quotes etc
2. 30 min GROUP presentation on Day 5
3. Each INDIVIDUAL person to hand in 500 words on the relevance
(including advantages and pitfalls) of Futures/ Forecasting in Design on Day 5

72. Day 1 Predicting the Future?
1030 - 1145 : Lecture on Forecasting, Trends & STEEP Analysis
1145 - 1200: Break
1200 - 1300: Assignment Briefing
1300 - 1400: Lunch
1400 - 1600: Group Work
Day 2 Creating Worlds & Persona’s + Projecting these into the future
1000 - 1130 : Lecture on Persona & World Development
1130 - 1145 : Break
1145 - 1300 : Progress Presentations
1300 - 1400 : Lunch
1400 - 1600 : Workshop
Day 3 Developing a scenario
1000 - 1130 : Lecture on Scenarios
1130 - 1145 : Break
1145 - 1300 : Progress
1300 - 1400 : Lunch
1400 - 1600 : Workshop
Day 4 Presenting your ideas
1000 - 1030 : Lecture on Presenting Ideas
1030 - 1300 : Group Work
1300 - 1400 : Lunch
1400 - 1430 : Progress Presentations
1430 - 1600 : Group Work
Day 5 Final presentations & Feedback
All groups MUST be present at all presentations
1100 - 1200 : Group 1 Travelling Abroad
1200 - 1300 : Group 2 Home Entertainment
1300 - 1400 : Lunch
1400 - 1500 : Group 3 Personal Comms
1500 - 1600 : Group 4 University Education

73. Resources
VIDEO
2012 Top 10 Forecasts, World Future Society
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEINbXDG9h4
Networked Society 'On the Brink'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7cuatm_bqw
Future Technology: Arthur C Clarke Predicting the future in 1964
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxYgdX2PxyQ
Life in 2050
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y87n7xBAOik&feature=related
Future in 2050
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jU9KzsU0zo&feature=related
Microsoft 2020 technology future vision
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxPn4Eo0PRk&feature=related
World in 2021
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4bJEqoCAuI&feature=related
Life In The Future from 2050 to year 5000 HQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9YV46PZ548&feature=related
650 Million Years in under 2 minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYbTNFN3NBo&feature=related
Dubai 1991-2005
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhqsJYvvykA&feature=related
Minority Report Trailer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2bmImPNKbM
ARTICLES
How to predict the future
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15483792
Predicting The Future
http://www.ecotopia.com/webpress/futures.htm
The computer that predicts the future
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/11/charliue-brooker-computer-predicts-
future
How to Predict the Future of Technology
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-future-is-for-fools
Predicting the future: it's becoming a science

74. http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/672
Some Patterns in World History and How they can be Used to Predict the Future
http://www.worldhistorysite.com/prediction.html
Can science fiction still predict the future?
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/culturelab/2011/05/can-science-fiction-still-predict-the-
future.html
The news forecast: Can you predict the future by mining millions of web pages for data?
http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2011/12/features/the-news-forecast?page=all
Future of Facebook - STEEP Analysis
http://ericaglasier.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/1-FutureOfFacebook.jpg
Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1618523
BOOKS
Predicting the future: an introduction to the theory of forecasting
http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Predicting_the_future.html?id=B2jpp4tA7MsC
Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Foresight-Art-Science-Anticipating-Future/dp/0415398150/
ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1328988373&sr=1-2
Never In A Million Years: A History of Hopeless Predictions
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Never-Million-Years-Hopeless-Predictions/dp/1409140229/
ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1328988398&sr=1-5
Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change. Profile Books.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurewise
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X
Future Files: A Brief History of the Next 50 Years
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Files-Brief-History-Years/dp/1857885341/ref=pd_sim_b_2
The End Game: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
http://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Game-SuperCycle-Changes-Everything/dp/1118004574/
ref=pd_sim_b_5
LCC - Futures Unit
Rakhi Rajani
rakhi@humaneditions.com