Innovating Past Global Crisis
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Slides from Ramez Naam's Keynote at the World Future Society 2013 conference in Chicago: Innovating Past Global Crisis. The world is up against the largest natural resource challenges it has ever faced. At the same time, we must make room to life billions out of poverty. Between this rock and hard place, there is only one way out - innovation. We must innovate in science and technology. AND we must innovate in the market systems that have thus far failed to recognize the full value of the natural resources we depend on. Called the best talk at World Future Society, this presentation doesn't dodge the hard reality of the challenges facing us, but leaves you with a sense of hope and motivation about our ability to tackle them. This talk is based on the book, The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet: http://amzn.to/15bToAJ
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Innovating Past Global Crisis
- 1. Innovating Past Global Crisis Ramez Naam @ramez
- 2. RAMEZ NAAM mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez Buy at Amazon
- 3. NASA It was the best of times, It was the worst of times
- 5. INFANT MORTALITY Egypt 1973: 15% Egypt 1940s: 25% US 1900: 25% Egypt Today: 2% US Today: 0.7% Lamia Hassan
- 6. LONGER LIVES Rich Nations World Average Years of Life Wikimedia Commons
- 7. Percent of World Living on $1 / Day PovertyImages
- 8. Addicted to Growth Aivaris Zukis
- 12. Dhy
- 13. Sam Beebe
- 14. NASA
- 15. NASA
- 18. Bruno de Giusti
- 19. Temperature Change since 1880 (degrees F) Linfield College
- 25. Xinhua
- 26. UPI
- 27. Andrey Smirnov
- 28. Larry W. Smith
- 34. Footprint NASA
- 35. Addicted to Growth Aivaris Zukis
- 36. Footprint 2 NASA
- 39. Wayne Osborn
- 41. Star of the Republic Museum
- 45. PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE VAST
- 46. 10,000 x
- 47. 10 Seconds of Sunlight
- 48. = 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
- 49. 1 Hour of Sunlight
- 50. = 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
- 54. 0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030.
- 56. Fresh Water
- 58. Not Resource Limits Innovation Limits
- 59. Innovations Multiply Resource Access
- 60. Moore’s Law for Solar PV AMD
- 61. Cost of Solar Power CROSSOVER: TODAY - 2025 Michael Dawes
- 67. IF WE CAN CRACK ENERGY…
- 71. Bern@tUSDA
- 72. Bern@tUSDA
- 73. Innovations Reduce Resource Use
- 74. Multiplier / Reducer: Agriculture
- 75. LESS ENERGY PER CALORIE GROWN
- 76. Boeing
- 77. Not Just Land: Less Oil Use 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected) BarrelsofOilPerPersonPerYear Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year Colfert
- 83. Knowledge is a Replicator
- 84. PROBLEM SOLVED?
- 85. NO: A RACE
- 87. WINNING THE RACE
- 88. R&D
- 89. EDUCATION
- 92. FIX THE MARKET
- 94. Terry Luns
- 95. Marvin Greene
- 98. Commons
- 100. Brent Durken
- 101. Decoupled Growth From Pollution
- 102. Rules Not Resources
- 103. NASA
- 104. NASA CFC Release (thousands of tons)
- 105. Bob Baer
- 106. THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE (A WIDER VARIETY THAN TODAY) EXTERNALITY THINGS WE CARE ABOUT THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE (THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, S ELLERS)
- 107. (Improving the Market Algorithm)
- 109. Tax the Bad, Not the Good (Improve the Tax Algorithm)
- 110. Income Tax Carbon Tax
- 111. David Suzuki
- 112. Pollution NOT an inevitable outcome of Growth
- 114. Brent Durken
- 115. NASA
- 116. NASA
- 117. Not Limits Policy Design of our Economy Pace of Innovation
- 118. What Can We Do?
- 119. 1. Communicate 2. Participate 3. Innovate 4. Keep Hope
- 120. Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
- 121. RAMEZ NAAM mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez Buy at Amazon
Notes de l'éditeur
- Image source: NASA
- Lamia Hassan: http://avoicefromcairo.wordpress.com/
- Wikimedia commons
- Image: povertyimages.com
- AivarisZukishttp://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.--- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation.goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
- Two thirds of the planet was once covered in forest.Laitche: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Forest_Osaka_Japan.jpg
- Only half of that forest area now remains. The rest destroyed primarily to grow and graze food.Image: Geraldine Garcon Juncas
- Image: DHYAverage American uses 1600 cubic meters of water per year.A cube 40’ on a side.
- Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons, Sam Beebe, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crop_circles_along_the_Columbia,_Washington,_USA.jpg70% OF WORLDWIDE WATER USE FOR AGRICULTURE
- Image: NASAAral Sea spans Uzbekistan and Kazakstan: 1989-2003Image: Wikimedia Commons
- Image: NASAAral Sea, 2009. Source: National Geographic
- Ogallala Aquifer.Provides water for farming across 8 states in the high plains. Fossil water, filled for more than 10,000 yearsSince 1960, we’ve used up HALF of the water in this aquifer. In areas of Texas, the flow from pumps is now a quarter of what it was. By 2050, at current rates, this resource that took more than 10,000 years to fill up will be gone.Image source: Kansas University: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/Bulletins/162/03_strat.html
- Image: Bruno de Giusti: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Moofushi_Kandu_fish.jpgPlenty of fish in the sea.
- Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
- Bear GlacierSource: Globalwarmingart.com
- Pederson GlacierGlobalwarming art
- Pederson GlacierSource: globalwarmingart.com
- Photo: European Pressphoto AgencyEuropean heat wave of 2003. Potato farmer in Russia.In August of 2003, Europe was hit with the hottest summer on record since at least 1540. More than 70,000 people died. France lost 20% of its wheat harvest. Fires destroyed 10% of the forests of Portugal. Melting glaciers brought on avalanches and flash floods in Switzerland. Ukraine lost a whopping 75% of its wheat harvest.2003 European Heat Wave, Wikipedia, accessed 8/16/11, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_waveEUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2003. HOTTEST SUMMER SINCE 1540. 70,000 DEATHS. 10% OF PORTUGAL’S FORESTS DESTROYED BY FIRE. 75% OF UKRAINE WHEAT CROP LOST.
- Image: xinhuarChina drought – farmer in Yunnan province. Two “hundred year” droughts in two years.CHINA 2009 AND 2010: TWO ‘WORST IN 100 YEARS’ DROUGHTS IN 2 YEARS. 20 M PEOPLE AFFECTED. WELLS ACTIVE FOR 500 YEARS RUNNING DRY.
- Image: UPIFlooding in Pakistan. Twice the area of Texas was under water. UNPRECEDENTED PAKISTANI FLOODS. FLOODED AREA LARGER THAN FRANCE OR GERMANY.
- Photo: Andrey SmirnovRussian heat wave of 2010. 55EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2010, CENTERED ON RUSSIA. 55,000 DEATHS. 11,000 DEATHS IN MOSCOW ALONE. RUSSIAN WHEAT CROP DECIMATED.,000 people killed. 11,000 people in Moscow alone.
- Larry W. Smith / EPA http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/05/7618690-dramatic-images-of-wildfire-near-austin-texasTexas wildfires. Hottest summer in US in history. Drying summer in Texas in history. TEXAS WILDFIRES – DRIEST 9 MONTHS IN RECORDED HISTORY. WHEAT CROP DOWN BY >60%
- Credit: dictionnaire-environnementhttp://216654.aceboard.fr/216654-2230-5368-0-Permafrost.htmTUNDRA AND PERMAFROST MELTING IN ALASKA, CANADA, SIBERIA.
- NASASummed across all of our consumption, We’re using resources faster than Nature can replenish them. We’re using one and a half Earth’s worth of natural resources. ----And if everyone on this planet lived like an American, we’d be using 5 planets worth of natural resources. We don’t have five Planet Earths.
- AivarisZukishttp://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.--- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation.goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
- And if everyone on this planet lived like an American, we’d be using 5 planets worth of natural resources. We don’t have five Planet Earths. ----So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.
- Photo credit: Wayne Osborn http://thewhalediaries.blogspot.com/
- Source: Wikimedia Commons
- Star of the Republic Museum: http://www.txindependence.org/sources.php?action=view&id=266&type=subject&title=Lighting&&typeId=16&ru=c291cmNlcy5waHA/YWN0aW9uPWJ5VHlwZSZ0eXBlPXN1YmplY3QmdHlwZUlkPTE2
- Historical Society of CanadaGesner created kerosene.No evidence that he really cared about the whales.Motivated by profit. High price for clean lighting.But that motivation led him to create this substitute.
- Image source: ???
- http://solarenergyfactsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/solar-energy-to-power-world.jpgLooks accurate at about 20%.
- Fresh water is an energy problem. We use a tiny tiny fraction of all water on the planet. Saltwater + energy, can be fresh water.Desalination = 0.77 kwh per cubic meter.Americans use 1600 cubic meters per capita per year.For 9 B people, would be 11 Trillion Kw Hours3 KilaMega9 Giga12 Tera15 Peta= 1.1 * 10^16 watt hoursSun delivers 350,000,000 * 10^12 = 3.5 * 10^20Current Energy Usage = 150,000 Twhours / year = 1.5 x 10^17
- Image Source: AMDIn 1954, solar cells cost $1,000 per Watt of power. Today, these cells, manufactured like microchips, cost around $2 per Watt. ----If we keep innovating, in 10 years, solar will be cheaper than coal. In 20 years, it could be half the price, providing us clean, abundant, cheap energy to power our future.
- Javier Gil
- Wheat: Bern@thttp://www.flickr.com/photos/93252788@N00Corn: USDA
- Wheat: Bern@thttp://www.flickr.com/photos/93252788@N00Corn: USDA
- We’ve don’t it with agriculture.We’ve gone from needing 6,000 acres to feed one person, to using less than half an acre per person today. Innovation has reduced the need for land.
- NightThree
- Air travel uses only 1/3 as much fuel per passenger mile as it did in the 1960s.Image credit: Boeing
- Colfert: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/2106602
- Photo: Michael O’DonnelWe’ve done it with computers.At the efficiency of the 1940s, an iPhone would have to be larger than the city of Chicago, and draw more power than the entire state of California. ----We’ve even done it with oil and water. The average american now uses a third less of each than in 1970, even as the size of our economy has doubled.That’s not enough, not yet. But it’s a start. Images: Wikimedia
- One more trait makes knowledge unique among resources. Ideas are viral. They replicate. They spread to other people without loss to the original holder.----And so the solar technology developed in the US has spread to these women in the tiny village of Tinginaput, in India. They’ve been trained by their government to install and repair solar cells in their village, and in others nearby.
- Image:terryluns
- Marvin Greene: http://csudigitalhumanities.org/exhibits/items/show/1909
- Businesses polluted the river, because they had no incentive not to. In fact, it was cheaper for them to dump waste and oil into the river then it was for them to deal with disposing it properly. In other words, the river was a commons. And it was being hit with the tragedy of the commons – the overuse or destruction of a resource that everyone shares, an that no one owns. Those businesses are able to privatize gains, while socializing the losses. They reap the profits of selling products made in a dirty way, and they make the rest of the community – and those down stream – pay for the damage. And that’s a classic market failure. The market actually encourages businesses to exploit the commons. Because if they don’t, a competitor will, and will gain an advantage over them.Cleveland State University: Cleveland Press, “Oil Slick on the Cuyahoga,” Teaching & Learning Cleveland , accessed March 6, 2012, http://csudigitalhumanities.org/
- Cleveland State UniversityIn this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
- Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed.Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons.The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon.Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.htmlReagan: Wikimedia commons
- Image: Bob Baer: http://www.pbase.com/bob_baer/image/115760976/original
- Image: Environmental Defense Fund. http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/files/2012/01/polluted-sunset1.jpgMost important pollutants today are CO2 and other greenhouse gases.If we pick up the best practice of putting a price on pollution, we can limit it. Either via cap and trade OR a carbon tax. Either of those puts a price on greenhouse gas pollution..But there’s a further innovation in economics that we should employ as well. And that’s to make a carbon price Revenue Neutral. Which is to say, to return all the money collected back to the taxpayers.
- http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-solutions/carbon-tax-or-cap-and-trade/The point is to tip the scales. If green energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, people will switch. That funds R&D in clean energy, which helps reduce the price further.Now, does this work?
- Cleveland State UniversityIn this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
- Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed.Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons.The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon.Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html
- NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.htmlReagan: Wikimedia commons
- Most important resource we have is new ideas. It’s our ability to innovate.If we continue to innovate both in technology and in how we manage our resources, then we can have our cake and eat it to. There is no limit to the wealth and well being we can aspire to, on a healthy, living planet, if we make the right choices.