THE DISRUPTED
FUTURE OF BANKING
RAMEZ NAAM
@ramez
[TEXT HAS BEEN ADDED TO SLIDES TO
MAKE THEM USEFUL WITHOUT A SPEAKER]
DON’T USE TEXT IN PRESENTATIONS
WHO AM I?
SCIENCE FICTION AUTHOR
14 YEARS IN TECH
HELPED LEAD INTERNAL STARTUP
DOING HIGH SCALE,
DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS,
MACHINE LEARNING,
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL
LEARNING FROM A
DISRUPTIVE ADVERSARY
NOW TEACHING IMPACTS OF
EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
SCIENCE FICTION IS HERE
1 MILLION MILES DRIVEN ZERO ACCIDENTS
SEES THINGS YOU CAN’T SEE
REACTS FASTER THAN YOU CAN
DRIVES BETTER THAN YOU EVER WILL
30,000 US ROAD FATALITIES / YEAR
1 MILLION /YEAR GLOBALLY
50 BILLION DRIVING HOURS / YR IN US
~8% OF GDP LOST TO DRIVING T...
“DRIVING” WILL GO AWAY
HUGE INDUSTRIES DISRUPTED
YOUR LIFE CHANGED
IBM’S WATSON
TROUNCED TWO BEST HUMANS
TASK RECENTLY CONSIDERED IMPOSSIBLE
IBM’S TARGET MARKET: MEDICINE
16% OF US GDP
A BETTER DOCTOR, BETTER DIAGNOSIS
MEDICINE A LARGE TARGET
X-PRIZE TRICORDER PRIZE
MOBISANTE ULTRASOUND
$35K DEDICATED ULTRASOUND -> $500 ANDROID
+ TELEMEDICINE AND ALGORITHMIC MEDICINE
Mobisante mobile ultrasound
SENSORS EVERYWHERE
EVERY APPLIANCE, VEHICLE, DEVICE,
CONNECTED
SENSORS FOR THE BODY
THE INTERNET OF US
iPhone vs. ENIAC
Michael
O’Donnell
$10 TRILLION
TO BUILD IPHONE 5 WITH 1940s TECH
COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO
{AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION,
DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
WINNERS AND LOSERS
PHOTOGRAPHY AT AN ALL TIME HIGH
KODAK CRUSHED
$18 Billion
$10 Billion
$9.5 Billion
$18 Billion
$23 Billion
AIRBNB HAS NEVER BUILT A HOTEL…
BUT HAS A HIGHER MARKET CAP
THAN HYATT
AND LIKELY TO PASS HILTON < 3
YEARS
AIRBNB vs. HOTEL CHAINS
(MARKET CAPS)
• AIRBNB: $10b
• HYATT: $9.5b
• STARWOOD: $15B (LIKELY PASSED IN 2015)
• MARRIOTT: 1...
WANT TO BE A WINNER?
OR A LOSER?
DISRUPTION STARTS AT THE EDGES
THEN HITS THE CORE
PAYMENTS ARE THE EDGE
20%
BANKS EARN UP TO 20% OF REVENUE FROM NON-INTEREST
SOURCES:
ATM FEES, CREDIT CARD FEES, ACCOUNT FEES, ETC..
3%
CREDIT CARDS TAKE 2-3% OF EACH TRANSACTION
SQUARE WOULD LOVE TO REPLACE
VISA AND MASTERCARD
BUT DOES THE WORLD EVEN
NEED SQUARE?
MOBILE PHONES PER 100 PEOPLE
Cellulari
UBIQUITOUS SMART PHONES WILL ENABLE
PAYMENTS WITHOUT ADDED HARDWARE
$1.6 TRILLION
CHINA
$1.6 TRILLION IN MOBILE PAYMENTS
IN 2013
317% GROWTH FROM 2012
VISA AND MASTERCARD WANT TO
OWN THIS SPACE TOO
BUT 3% SKIM CREATES AMPLE INCENTIVES
FOR MERCHANTS & RIVALS
ANALOGY: MOBILE SOCIAL & MOBILE
MESSAGING
UBIQUITOUS HARDWARE LOWERED BARRIERS
TO ENTRY
ALLOWED MULTIPLE NETWORKS TO SOAR
...
MONEY WIRING ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
DEVELOPING WORLD MAJOR GROWTH AREA
DRIVEN BY ‘REMITTANCES’ FROM EMIGREES
$500 B Transfers
$528 BILLION IN REMITTANCES IN 2013
8% YOY GROWTH
>10% OF GDP IN 20 COUNTRIES
$50B IN MONEY TRANSFER FEES
10%
FEES AVERAGE 10%. CAN BE 12% OR HIGHER.
$200  KENYA = $24 IN FEES. OUTRAGEOUS.
0%?
BITCOIN AS A TRANSFER PROTCOL
INHERENTLY GLOBAL AND INSTANT
80%
THE REAL MONEY FOR BANKS IS LOAN INTEREST
80% OF REVENUE: LOANS & SECURITIES
BANKS DEPEND UPON DEMAND
FOR THEIR LOANS
US INDUSTRY IS LESS AND LESS CAPITAL
INTENSIVE.
A LONG TERM NEGATIVE TREND FOR LENDING.
RECENT EXAMPLES
$280 million funding
$22 BILLION exit
$800 million funding
$10 BILLION value
AIRBNB NEVER BUILT ONE OF THESE
BUT AGAIN:
NOT JUST RECENT.
A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS INCREASED
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY OF PROFITS
PROBLEM 2: COMPETITION IN LENDING
PEER TO PEER LENDING
“AIRBNB FOR LOANS”
CONNECTS BORROWERS TO
LENDERS
DISINTERMEDIATES BANKS
LENDERS GET HIGHER RATES THAN BONDS
BORROWERS GET LOWER RATES THAN CREDIT CARDS
LOANS OFTEN PAY DOWN CC DEBT
LENDERS BUILD PORTFOLIOS
TYPICALLY COVER ONLY FRACTION OF A BORROWER
SPREAD & SHARE RISK
188% YOY GROWTH
P2P LENDING STILL TINY VS $1.8T US LOAN MKT
BUT DOUBLING EVERY 9 MONTHS
2/3 NEW LOANS FROM INST. INVESTORS
DEFAULT INSURAN...
GOOGLE LEAD $125M LendingClub ROUND
OTHER COMPETITORS BEYOND P2P
PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS 
$70+ BILLION IN LENDING IN 2013
UP FROM $50B IN 2012
SHIPYARDS, HEAVY INDUSTRY, ETC..
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO:
LARGE ASSET HOLDERS MOVE INTO LENDING
ASSISTED BY ALGORITHMS THAT VET LENDERS
& NETWORKS THAT DISINTER...
TRILLIONS IN AVAILABLE ASSETS
?
WHAT SHOULD BANKS DO?
1. MOVE FAST IN A FAST CHANGING WORLD
2. KEEP YOUR CUSTOMERS HAPPY!
3. UNDERSTAND YOU’RE NOT THE ONL...
THE DISRUPTED
FUTURE OF BANKING
RAMEZ NAAM
@ramez
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance
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The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance

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Digital technology is disrupting industry after industry. The price of computing, data storage, communication, and coordination continues to plummet. Artificial Intelligence, sharing networks, crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, and digitization of old analogue processes are revolutionizing huge swaths of the economy. It's these trends that are radically changing the needs and behaviors of banking customers AND it's these trends that are now forcing the banking industry to revolutionize.

Banks must disrupt themselves or be disrupted.

Publié dans : Économie & finance, Business

The Disrupted Future of Banking - How Tech Will Disrupt, Destroy, or Reinvent Banking, Payments, and Finance

  1. THE DISRUPTED FUTURE OF BANKING RAMEZ NAAM @ramez
  2. [TEXT HAS BEEN ADDED TO SLIDES TO MAKE THEM USEFUL WITHOUT A SPEAKER] DON’T USE TEXT IN PRESENTATIONS
  3. WHO AM I?
  4. SCIENCE FICTION AUTHOR
  5. 14 YEARS IN TECH
  6. HELPED LEAD INTERNAL STARTUP DOING HIGH SCALE, DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS, MACHINE LEARNING, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL
  7. LEARNING FROM A DISRUPTIVE ADVERSARY
  8. NOW TEACHING IMPACTS OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
  9. SCIENCE FICTION IS HERE
  10. 1 MILLION MILES DRIVEN ZERO ACCIDENTS
  11. SEES THINGS YOU CAN’T SEE REACTS FASTER THAN YOU CAN DRIVES BETTER THAN YOU EVER WILL
  12. 30,000 US ROAD FATALITIES / YEAR 1 MILLION /YEAR GLOBALLY 50 BILLION DRIVING HOURS / YR IN US ~8% OF GDP LOST TO DRIVING TIME
  13. “DRIVING” WILL GO AWAY HUGE INDUSTRIES DISRUPTED YOUR LIFE CHANGED
  14. IBM’S WATSON
  15. TROUNCED TWO BEST HUMANS TASK RECENTLY CONSIDERED IMPOSSIBLE
  16. IBM’S TARGET MARKET: MEDICINE 16% OF US GDP A BETTER DOCTOR, BETTER DIAGNOSIS
  17. MEDICINE A LARGE TARGET X-PRIZE TRICORDER PRIZE MOBISANTE ULTRASOUND
  18. $35K DEDICATED ULTRASOUND -> $500 ANDROID + TELEMEDICINE AND ALGORITHMIC MEDICINE Mobisante mobile ultrasound
  19. SENSORS EVERYWHERE EVERY APPLIANCE, VEHICLE, DEVICE, CONNECTED
  20. SENSORS FOR THE BODY THE INTERNET OF US
  21. iPhone vs. ENIAC Michael O’Donnell $10 TRILLION TO BUILD IPHONE 5 WITH 1940s TECH
  22. COST OF COMPUTING GOES TO ZERO {AND OF STORAGE, BANDWIDTH, COORDINATION, DISINTERMEDIATION, ETC..}
  23. WINNERS AND LOSERS
  24. PHOTOGRAPHY AT AN ALL TIME HIGH KODAK CRUSHED
  25. $18 Billion
  26. $10 Billion
  27. $9.5 Billion
  28. $18 Billion
  29. $23 Billion
  30. AIRBNB HAS NEVER BUILT A HOTEL… BUT HAS A HIGHER MARKET CAP THAN HYATT AND LIKELY TO PASS HILTON < 3 YEARS
  31. AIRBNB vs. HOTEL CHAINS (MARKET CAPS) • AIRBNB: $10b • HYATT: $9.5b • STARWOOD: $15B (LIKELY PASSED IN 2015) • MARRIOTT: 18B (LIKELY PASSED BY 2016) • HILTON: $23b (LIKELY PASSED BY 2017)
  32. WANT TO BE A WINNER? OR A LOSER?
  33. DISRUPTION STARTS AT THE EDGES THEN HITS THE CORE PAYMENTS ARE THE EDGE
  34. 20% BANKS EARN UP TO 20% OF REVENUE FROM NON-INTEREST SOURCES: ATM FEES, CREDIT CARD FEES, ACCOUNT FEES, ETC..
  35. 3% CREDIT CARDS TAKE 2-3% OF EACH TRANSACTION
  36. SQUARE WOULD LOVE TO REPLACE VISA AND MASTERCARD
  37. BUT DOES THE WORLD EVEN NEED SQUARE?
  38. MOBILE PHONES PER 100 PEOPLE Cellulari
  39. UBIQUITOUS SMART PHONES WILL ENABLE PAYMENTS WITHOUT ADDED HARDWARE
  40. $1.6 TRILLION
  41. CHINA $1.6 TRILLION IN MOBILE PAYMENTS IN 2013 317% GROWTH FROM 2012
  42. VISA AND MASTERCARD WANT TO OWN THIS SPACE TOO
  43. BUT 3% SKIM CREATES AMPLE INCENTIVES FOR MERCHANTS & RIVALS
  44. ANALOGY: MOBILE SOCIAL & MOBILE MESSAGING UBIQUITOUS HARDWARE LOWERED BARRIERS TO ENTRY ALLOWED MULTIPLE NETWORKS TO SOAR RAPIDLY TO HIGH SCALE
  45. MONEY WIRING ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
  46. DEVELOPING WORLD MAJOR GROWTH AREA DRIVEN BY ‘REMITTANCES’ FROM EMIGREES
  47. $500 B Transfers
  48. $528 BILLION IN REMITTANCES IN 2013 8% YOY GROWTH >10% OF GDP IN 20 COUNTRIES $50B IN MONEY TRANSFER FEES
  49. 10% FEES AVERAGE 10%. CAN BE 12% OR HIGHER. $200  KENYA = $24 IN FEES. OUTRAGEOUS.
  50. 0%? BITCOIN AS A TRANSFER PROTCOL INHERENTLY GLOBAL AND INSTANT
  51. 80% THE REAL MONEY FOR BANKS IS LOAN INTEREST 80% OF REVENUE: LOANS & SECURITIES
  52. BANKS DEPEND UPON DEMAND FOR THEIR LOANS
  53. US INDUSTRY IS LESS AND LESS CAPITAL INTENSIVE. A LONG TERM NEGATIVE TREND FOR LENDING.
  54. RECENT EXAMPLES
  55. $280 million funding $22 BILLION exit
  56. $800 million funding $10 BILLION value
  57. AIRBNB NEVER BUILT ONE OF THESE
  58. BUT AGAIN: NOT JUST RECENT. A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS INCREASED CAPITAL EFFICIENCY OF PROFITS
  59. PROBLEM 2: COMPETITION IN LENDING
  60. PEER TO PEER LENDING
  61. “AIRBNB FOR LOANS” CONNECTS BORROWERS TO LENDERS DISINTERMEDIATES BANKS
  62. LENDERS GET HIGHER RATES THAN BONDS BORROWERS GET LOWER RATES THAN CREDIT CARDS LOANS OFTEN PAY DOWN CC DEBT
  63. LENDERS BUILD PORTFOLIOS TYPICALLY COVER ONLY FRACTION OF A BORROWER SPREAD & SHARE RISK
  64. 188% YOY GROWTH
  65. P2P LENDING STILL TINY VS $1.8T US LOAN MKT BUT DOUBLING EVERY 9 MONTHS 2/3 NEW LOANS FROM INST. INVESTORS DEFAULT INSURANCE NOW AN OPTION
  66. GOOGLE LEAD $125M LendingClub ROUND
  67. OTHER COMPETITORS BEYOND P2P PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS 
  68. $70+ BILLION IN LENDING IN 2013 UP FROM $50B IN 2012 SHIPYARDS, HEAVY INDUSTRY, ETC..
  69. NIGHTMARE SCENARIO: LARGE ASSET HOLDERS MOVE INTO LENDING ASSISTED BY ALGORITHMS THAT VET LENDERS & NETWORKS THAT DISINTERMEDIATE BANKS
  70. TRILLIONS IN AVAILABLE ASSETS
  71. ?
  72. WHAT SHOULD BANKS DO? 1. MOVE FAST IN A FAST CHANGING WORLD 2. KEEP YOUR CUSTOMERS HAPPY! 3. UNDERSTAND YOU’RE NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN 4. KNOW YOUR ADVANTAGES: – FDIC, PERCEIVED STABILITY, CONVENIENCE, RELATIONSHIPS 5. DISRUPT YOURSELF BEFORE SOMEONE ELSE DOES
  73. THE DISRUPTED FUTURE OF BANKING RAMEZ NAAM @ramez

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