Rand's presentation from Brighton SEO, Fall 2018 focusing on the shifts in Google's behavior toward the SERP and away from referring outlinking traffic.

1. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
On-SERP SEO
The Infuriating Reality
of Search’s Future

2. We Had a Deal!

3. Google gets to:
Crawl our sites for free
Use our hosting bandwidth free
Scrape our content w/o trademark consequence
Rely on us to optimize to their standards
in exchange…

4. Those who solve searchers’ problems
earn clicks with their content

5. But Google’s been changing the deal…

6. This deal’s getting worse all the time…

7. Google’s Free Traffic
Was a Trojan Horse…

8. With 3-4 Serious Competitors, Google Couldn’t
Afford to Piss Off Content Creators

9. But, Once
They Got 90%
Market
Share…
Via Rand’s Blog
Core Google
Search
61.6%
Google Images
22.6%
YouTube
4.3%
Yahoo, 2.4%
Amazon, 2.3%
Bing, 2.2%
Facebook, 1.4% Google Maps, 1.3%
Pinterest, 0.5%
Twitter
0.4%

10. And even better results
wouldn’t make folks
switch…
Via AdAge

11. Google was free to wallow in its crappy treatment of
websites & content creators

12. How Bad Is It?

13. Via Rand’s Blog
In 2017, for every paid ad click on Google,
there were ~20 clicks to an organic result.

14. In Q3/4 2017, there were (seasonally) fewer clicks available for SEO
for perhaps the first time ever.
Via Rand’s Blog

15. Google’s Desktop CTRs
February 2018:
Paid: 3.82%
Organic: 65.72%
No Click Searches:
34.28%
*Note:Sumsare greaterthan100%assearcherscan
clickmultipleresultsperquery

16. Google’s Mobile CTRs
February 2018:
Paid: 3.12%
*Note:Sumsare greaterthan100%assearcherscan
clickmultipleresultsperquery

17. Google’s Mobile CTRs
February 2018:
*Note:Sumsare greaterthan100%assearcherscan
clickmultipleresultsperquery
Paid: 3.12%
Organic: 38.97%
No Click Searches:
61.03%

18. The Scary Part:
Organic Paid No Clicks
Mobile
Desktop
February 2016 February 2018
Organic Paid No Clicks
65.56% 2.50% 34.44%
58.43% 1.83% 41.57%
65.72% 3.82% 34.28%
38.97% 3.12% 61.03%
20% drop in mobile, organic CTR. 20%
increase in mobile “no click” searches.

19. Across All Google’s Search Queries…
Organic CTR: 52.96%
Paid CTR:
No Click Searches:
3.49%
47.04%
~15 organic clicks for
every paid click.
Down from ~20 a year
ago.
For every 10 organic
clicks, 8.8 searches
with 0 clicks.

20. Where Are These Changes Happening?
More heavily on mobile
than desktop
More on popular queries
than long tail
Near-equally on
informational &
transactional queries

21. Google Maps/Local

22. Video
Oh really?

23. Weather

24. Flights

25. Flights

26. Sports

27. Hotels

28. Hotels

29. Famous & Notable People
The NLP tech
used to extract
these snippets
should scare the
$#^% out of every
publisher

30. Brands + Companies

31. Dictionary & Thesaurus

32. Film & Television

36. Jobs

37. Concerts & Events

38. Best (fill in the blank)…

39. Best (fill in the blank)…

40. Best (fill in the blank)…

41. Best (fill in the blank)…

42. Best (fill in the blank)…

43. Almost Every Fat Head-Chunky Middle Consumer Product

44. Almost Every Fat Head-Chunky Middle Consumer Product

45. And many, many more…

46. And It’s Not Just Google…

47. Facebook Killed Organic Reach
Via AdGo

48. Then They Killed Referral Traffic
Via Nieman Lab

49. Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking

50. Twitter & LinkedIn Now Bias to On-Site Content
Via MarginallyCoherent

51. Reddit Wants to Keep You on Reddit
Via Reddit

52. YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making
Links Visible in the Default View

53. And, of course, Amazon

54. The Next Generation of Voice Devices
Will Only Make This More Painful
Via Pew Research

55. Two Conflicting Truths For
Modern Marketers:

56. #1
It’s Never Been Harder to Earn
Organic Traffic From the Web’s
Major Players

57. #2
It’s Never Been More Important to Make
Your Website (& Email List) the Center of
Your Campaigns

58. How Can We Respond?

59. Leverage Every Scrap of Traffic Google
(and others) Still Send

60. Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research
This metric uses clicksteam data to
estimate the % of searchers who’ll
click on the standard, non-paid,
organic SERPs

61. Shift Content Marketing to KWs
Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize

62. Double Down on Branded Demand Creation

63. Invest in Organic Now, So You’re Stronger
As More Traffic Goes Paid-Only (or Google-Only)

64. Invest in On-SERP SEO

65. #1: Control What Appears For Your Brand
ID sites that rank in
your space, & build
profiles on them
Claim Your Panels
Leverage the Rich
Snippets Google
Offers

66. #2: If Google Biases to YouTube, Images, G News,
Maps, etc… Create Content For Those Platforms

67. #3: When KWs Show
Aggregated Answers, Influence
the Publishers Below to Get
Listed
To Get Into These…
Get Mentioned + Listed In These

68. #4: If You’re Using Featured Snippets,
Entice the Click!
Some accents are
better than others? I
have to know where
mine ranks!

69. #5: If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t, Use
Barnacle SEO
Every one of these
sites enables user or
guest editorial
contributions

70. All That Said…
I’m a Short-Term Pessimist, But
a Long-Term Optimist

71. Organic Marketing Opportunities
Will Always Exist

72. And They’ll Always Give Outsized Benefit to Those
Who Invest Wisely
Via SparkToro

73. SEO Will Be a Crucial Skill For At Least Another 10
Years (Probably More)

74. Especially in Emerging Markets &
Mid-Long Tail of KW Demand

75. The Harder a Tactic Becomes…
The More of a Competitive Advantage It Is

76. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Thank You!