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The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2019.

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The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2019.

  1. 1. © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner’s prior written permission. It consists of the opinions of Gartner’s research organization, which should not be construed as statements of fact. While the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner research may address legal and financial issues, Gartner does not provide legal or investment advice and its research should not be construed or used as such. Your access and use of this publication are governed by Gartner’s Usage Policy. Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity. Its research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from any third party. For further information, see “Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.” David Cearley Distinguished VP & Gartner Fellow The Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2019 14 – 18 October 2018 / Orlando, FL
  2. 2. 1 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Intelligent Digital Mesh Technology Is an Inextricable Part of Our World
  3. 3. 2 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. “Welcome to the era of ContinuousNEXT where your organization can foster perpetual innovation, integration and delivery” Mike Harris Technologies Evolve and Interact to Create the Future
  4. 4. 3 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Autonomous Things By 2021 10% of new vehicles will have autonomous driving capability, compared with less than 1% in 2017. 1
  5. 5. 4 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. A Framework for Assessing Autonomous Things Types: Vehicles Drones AppliancesRobotics Agents Capability Coordination Intelligence With Varying Levels of: Applied Across All Environments: Sea Land Air Digital 1
  6. 6. 5 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Autonomous Things With Varying Levels Capability Coordination Intelligence  Human-Assisted  Partial Automation  Conditional Automation  High Automation  Full Autonomy  Isolated  Independent  Connected  Collaborative (Swarms)  Dumb and Static  Semismart and Dynamic  Individually Smart and Dynamic  Collectively Smart With Dynamic Hive Interaction 1
  7. 7. 6 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. 1
  8. 8. 7 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Augmented Analytics Through 2020, the number of citizen data scientists will grow five times faster than the number of expert data scientists. 2
  9. 9. 8 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Augmented Analytics Visual-Based Data Discovery Platforms Semantic Layer- Based Platforms The Future of Analytics Is ‘Augmented Analytics’ Low High Months Days/Hours Instant/Near Real-Time Time to Advanced Insight PervasivenessofAI 2
  10. 10. 9 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Automated Data Science to Assist Business Users Citizen Data Scientist AI Data Preparation:  Algorithms detect schemas, profile, catalog  Determine data lineage, metadata and recommend enrichment AI Insight Generation:  Natural language query  Algorithms find relevant patterns  Features and models autoselected  Code is autogenerated AI Human Assistance:  Natural language narrated insights  Autogenerated visualizations  Results embedded in apps 2
  11. 11. 10 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Finding Unknown Correlations for Crop Yield — in Seconds Source: SparkBeyond 2
  12. 12. 11 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Gartner 2018 AI-Driven Development By 2022 At least 40% of new application development projects will have artificial intelligence co-developers on their team. 3
  13. 13. 12 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Exploiting AI in the Development Process 3 AI Services* Vision and Image Speech & Language Knowledge Empathy Custom Models Conversation AI Platforms Amazon Machine Learning Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Google Cloud Machine Learning Engine IBM Watson AI Frameworks TensorFlow Torch Theano Apache MXNet Deeplearning4j scikit-learn AI Infrastructure AWS Lambda IBM Cloud Functions Google Cloud Platform Microsoft Azure AI *(Specific Vendor Services Vary)
  14. 14. 13 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Technical Knowledge Expertise/Autonomy Applying AI to the Development Process 3 Virtual Biz Analyst 2022+ Virtual Data Scientist 2018+ Virtual Architect 2023+ Virtual Software Engineer 2020+Virtual Intern 2018+ Virtual QA Tester 2019+ Virtual Solution Architect & Developer 2025+?
  15. 15. 14 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Gartner 2018 Digital Twin 24% of Enterprises Implementing IoT Projects Are Using Digital Twins  Asset Data  Operational Data  Context Data  Operational Data  Local Model  Control Models, Data, Monitor, Analysis, Simulation 4
  16. 16. 15 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Digital Twins Drive Digital Business Opportunities Maintenance and reliability* Business process/Asset optimization Monetization of data, models Research and development New business models *Maintenance and Reliability Ranked No. 1 and 2 Source: “Survey Analysis: Progressing to a Digital Business Future Through IT/OT Transformation,” (G00292443) 4
  17. 17. 16 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Beyond Digital Twins of Things Digital Twin of an organization is a dynamic software model of any organization that relies on operational and/or other data to understand its state, respond to changes, improve operations and add value. It includes a combination of … Metadata Situation Analytics Models Event Data 4
  18. 18. 17 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Digital Twins of People and Places + Process and Things 4
  19. 19. 18 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Empowered Edge Storage, computing and advanced AI and analytics capabilities will expand the capabilities of edge devices through 2028 5
  20. 20. 19 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Empowered Edge Data Center Enterprise Connected Edge Device Edge Svr. or Gateway Remote Local Edge Device Cloud Connected Central Cloud Cloud Architected Central Cloud Edge Cloud Distributed Cloud Edge Device Isolated 5
  21. 21. 20 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Intelligence and More at the Edge Typical Asset Life Asset Type Capabilities Extending Asset (Current Focus vs. Future Addition) Edge Computers  Mobile  Notebook*  PC  Printers  Scanners 1 to 5 years Local compute, storage moving to add specialized AI chips and more sensors Edge I/O  Speakers*  Screens  Cameras  Sensors  Light Bulbs 3 to 10 years Simple I/O focused “dumb” devices moving to add sensors and local compute and storage Complex Embedded Edge  Automobiles  Tractors, Cranes  Drones  Ships  Locomotives 3 to 20 years Complex devices with many existing computing elements adding functionality and creating a local “network” at the edge Simple Embedded Edge  Industrial equipment  Consumer electronics  Appliances 5 to 20 — consumer 10 to 40 — industrial Devices with sensors and actuators moving to add local compute and storage and more advanced sensors 5 The edge has many parts with different lifecycles creating complex and ongoing management and integration challenges
  22. 22. 21 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Connecting the Edge With 5G 5 Starts in 2019 and matures in 5 to 6 Years Faster Speed Lower Latency Greater Density
  23. 23. 22 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Immersive Experience By 2022 70% of enterprises will be experimenting with immersive technologies for consumer and enterprise use, and 25% will have deployed to production 6
  24. 24. 23 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Humans Learn and Adapt to Technology Technology Learns and Adapts to Humans Human System System Human Shifting the UI Flipping the Interaction Model 6 Complexity
  25. 25. 24 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. How We Perceive the Virtual World Is Changing Training & Simulation Sales & DemosMarketing Design Visualization WorkspaceField Service 6
  26. 26. 25 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. How We Interact With the Digital World Is Changing 25 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Voice 6
  27. 27. 26 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. How We Interact With the Digital World Is Changing 26 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Eye Tracking Position Tracking Many more… Voice Gesture Emotion 6
  28. 28. 27 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. MultimodalMultichannel Visual Auditory Smell Heat/ Humidity Location Taste Human Senses and Super Human Senses Touch And More People Will Demand Multiexperience 6
  29. 29. 28 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality  Perception and interaction with services  Starts with visual and tactile  Content-focused 2024 20292019 The Environment Around You Is the Computer Conversational Platform  Access and control services  Starts with language  Action-focused Targeted Solutions — Isolated UX as a Feature Immersive, Ambient User Experience  Contextual perception and interaction  Multiple sensory channels and device modes  Continuous, stateful across services and environments  Facilitates human and machine collaboration  Invisible, transparent and natural Mesh Solutions — Fluid UX Across Systems 6
  30. 30. 29 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Blockchain Blockchain Will Create $3.1T in Business Value by 2030 7
  31. 31. 30 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Optional Characteristics  Smart Contracts  Centralized Management  Controlled Access/Update  Alternative Consensus Mechanism The Blockchain Ledger  Shared, Tokenized, Digitized  Decentralized and Distributed  Immutable, Traceable Record  Consensus Mechanisms What Does Blockchain Offer? 7
  32. 32. 31 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Public BCPre-BC Public, Private, Hybrid, Consortia BC Programmable Economy Based on BC 2009 2012 2016 2020 2022 2025 BC Enabling BC Phase 2: Inspired BC Phase 3: Complete BC Phase 4: Enhanced BC Phase 1: Testing Blockchain Exists Across a Spectrum of Capabilities 2018 7
  33. 33. 32 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Example Blockchain Value Propositions Blockchain Disruptor Permissionless Marketplaces Efficiency Play TradeLens Shipping Record Keeper e-Health Record Digital Asset Market Digital Gold 7
  34. 34. 33 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Smart Spaces Smart spaces are physical or digital environments populated by humans and enabled by technology which are increasingly connected, intelligent and autonomous. 8
  35. 35. 34 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Smart Spaces Maturity Model  Open  Connected  Coordinated  Intelligent  Ecosystem Phase 4 Intelligent Environments 8  Open Externally  Connected  Coordinated  Semi-Intelligent  Organization Phase 3 Coordinated Systems  Open Internally  Connected  Integrated  Not Intelligent  Department Phase 2 Connected Systems  Closed  Not Connected  Not Coordinated  Not Intelligent  Team Phase 1 Isolated Systems Openness: Connectedness: Coordination: Intelligence: Scope:
  36. 36. 35 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Smart Spaces — The Connected Factory and Digital Supply Chains Vertical and Horizontal Integration Are Needed Process Granularity Performance Partner Partner Partner Partner Partner Partner Partner Partner Partner External IoT Production Plan Source Deliver Service 8
  37. 37. 36 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Smart Spaces — Smart Cities 8
  38. 38. 37 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Hype Cycle for Privacy, 2018 Digital Ethics and Privacy By 2021 organizations that bought compliance risk and are caught lacking in privacy protection will pay 100% more in compliance cost than best-practice-adhering competitors. 9
  39. 39. 38 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.  GPS  Cell Tracking  Licence Plate Readers  IP Address  Facial Recognition  Building Security  Search engines  Social Networks  Super Cookies  Smart Speaker  email (Section 702)  Facial Recognition  Voice Recognition  DNA  Iris  Fingerprint Billions of Endpoints Are Collecting Information  Activity  Heartrate  Respiration  Sleep  Blood Pressure  Blood Sugar  Driving Habits Where You Are What You ThinkWho You Are What You Do 9
  40. 40. The Evolving Patchwork of Privacy Laws Comprehensive Data Protection Law Enacted Pending Bill or Initiative to Enact Law No Initiatives or No InformationDavid Banisar January 2018 9
  41. 41. 40 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Move From Compliance-Driven to Ethics-Driven to Discern ‘Right’ From ‘Wrong’ and to Create Value  Values: Ultimately, there is only one question left: What do I believe myself is the right thing to do? “It may be possible, it may be allowed, but do we want it?”  Difference: Is digital ethics part of our value proposition? Can we make a difference?  Risk: Is there reputation risk, or are we harming others?  Compliance: Are we breaking any rules? Hierarchy of Intent Internally driven (achievement) Externally driven (avoidance) Mind compliance Mitigate risk Make a difference Follow your values 9
  42. 42. 41 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Quantum Computing By 2023 20% of organizations will be budgeting for quantum computing projects compared to less than 1% today. 10
  43. 43. 42 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. What Is Quantum Computing? Quantum computing is a type of nonclassical computing that is based on the quantum state of subatomic particles. The state of the particles represents information, expressed in single elements known as qubits. Key terms:  Qubits  Superposition  Entanglement  Decoherence 10
  44. 44. 43 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Quantum Computing — Key Use Cases Postquantum Cryptography 1 Optimization Problems 2 Material Science 3 Chemistry 4 Personalized Medicine 5 Biomimetics Key Applications* *In order of complexity 10
  45. 45. 44 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Qubit Timeline Estimates 2000+ 1000 50 LogicalQubits 2018 2023 2028 2038 Transient Quantum Supremacy Quantum Advantage Meaningful Work QML Impact to AI Greater Business Use Cases 500 Postquantum Cryptography Financial Services Begins to Leverage QC RSA/EC Not Used for PKI Crypto-Agility Becomes Important Decoherence Errors All Historical RSA Encryption Can Be Cracked? 300 100M+ MillionsofPhysicalQubits Note: Dates are speculative 10
  46. 46. 45 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. Intelligent Digital Mesh Augmented Analytics Empowered Edge Autonomous Things Digital Twin AI-Driven Development Immersive Experience Blockchain Smart Spaces Quantum Computing Privacy and Ethics

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