1. Seite 1
Assessing economic impacts of
the energy transition –
energy-economy modelling
Arab Forum for Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency
Anita Richter
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
GmbH
Kuwait, May 6th 2018

2. Seite 2
RE and EE change the energy future – but how?
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Global trends and national decisions shape the long-term development of
energy systems
 Fast technological change (RE, EE, digitalisation)
 Uncertain development of energy prices
 Climate change and global climate protection policy e.g. carbon pricing
 New mix of energy sources
 New demand and supply structures
 New market players and market designs
 New infrastructures (electricity grid, data gateways)
 Investment decisions of today shape energy infrastructures for long time
horizons
 Infrastructure decisions are interlinked (ports, electricity grid etc.)
Uncertainties make energy policy and planning more complex

3. Seite 3
The energy – economy link
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Decision makers in energy sector confronted with broader economic
questions if they want to go beyond business as usual
 Technical aspects: optimisation of the future energy mix and
infrastructure etc.
 Macro-economic aspects: costs, growth, export balance, energy
subsidies, tax revenues etc.
 Social aspects: employment, distributional effects on different income
groups and sectors
 Additional aspects of interest : synergies with other sectors (e.g. water
desalination), electricity exports and international grid interconnections

4. Seite 4
Imagining alternative futures – scenario modelling
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Scenario modelling can help to optimise energy and
economy policy
 Comprehensive cost comparison, defining opportunities
and constraints
Easy comparison of different options
 Comparing different scenarios allows to identify major
influencing factors and robust trends
 Identification of necessary „trade offs“
Tailor-made modelling
 Decision makers can influence the design of the scenarios
Time horizons: 2030, 2050, 2100 Source: Gregor Schwerhoff and
Mouhamadou Sy (2018):
Developing Africa’s energy mix,
Climate Policy

5. Seite 5
Advanced modelling tools are available
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Example: Regional Model of Investments and Development (Remind), Potsdam-Institut für
Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

6. Seite 6
Integrate scenario modelling into policy making
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
 Economic impact assessment as integrated part of the policy process
(e.g. EU Energy & Climate Strategy 2030, German Climate Action
Plan)
 Quality of the dialogue between policymakers and modelers defines
quality of results
 Willingness to give access to data
 Development of local capacities for energy-economy modelling needed
 German Federal Ministry for the Environmemt, Nature Protection
and Nuclear Safety supports economic impact modelling in MAR,
TUN, ALG
 GIZ plans to establish regional network of think tanks on energy –
economy modelling

7. Seite 7
Example: Impact assessment of EU Energy &
Climate 2030 Strategy - Jobs
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Job motor
energy
efficiency
Net
employment
effects of 40%
emission
reduction
scenarios until
2030

8. Seite 8
Example: Impact assessment of EU Energy &
Climate 2030 Strategy - GDP
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
Effects of
different
designs of
carbon pricing
on GDP

9. Seite 9
Example: Coal Phase Out in Germany
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018
 Difference between “early phase out” and “business as usual” scenario
 Analysis of economic variables like output (left) and of social variables
like employment (right) in one comprehensive analysis
Source: Heidi Heinrichs and others (2017): Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany. Energy

10. Seite 10
Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Anita Richter
Project Leader
„DIAPOL-CE Policy dialogue and knowledge management on low
emissions development strategies in the MENA region”
Commissioned by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Köthener Straße 2
10963 Berlin
T +49 30 33 84 24 - 280
F +49 30 33 84 24 - 22280
E anita.richter@giz.de
I www.giz.de
DIAPOL-CE (BMUB)

11. Seite 11
Impact assessment of EU Energy & Climate 2030
Strategy
Präsentationstitel hier eintragen19.05.2018