1.
Intended Nationnally determined contributions -
Comprehensive analysis on the energy sector for the
Arab countries
Arab Forum for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
(AFREEE)
Kuwait City, Al Raya Hall (7th of May 2018)

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What is an INDC/NDC?
Conference of
Parties (CoP 21) -
Paris agreement in
December 2015
Intended Nationally
Determined
Contributions
(INDC)
Nationally
Determined
Contributions
(NDCs)

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How does the process work?
• INDCs pair National policy setting with a global framework under the
Paris Agreement
• INDCs create a constructive feedback loop between national and
international decision-making on climate change
• INDCs are the primary means for governments to communicate
internationally the steps they will take to address climate change in
their own countries

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INDCs/NDCs in the Arab Region
INDC
NDC
20 INDCs/NDC

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Comprehensive analysis on the energy sector
for the Arab countries - Methodology

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Comprehensive analysis on the energy sector
for the Arab countries - Methodology
Mitigation
Targets, Costs
Conditional / Unconditional Adaptation
Agriculture, water, tourism, health, etc…

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Comprehensive analysis on the energy sector
for the Arab countries - Methodology
Renewable Energy
Wind Solar Geothermal Etc…
Energy Efficiency
Sectors Technologies
WD & CCS

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Dataset overview (Mitigation and Adaptation)

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Dataset overview (RE & EE)

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General information – Timeline and base year
Base Year Country
1994 Oman
2000
KSA
Sudan
Yemen
2006 Jordan
2010
Djibouti
Mauritania
Morocco
Tunisia
2011
Iraq
Lebanon

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Main findings – Mitigation (Avoided emission)
Country Unconditional Conditional
Algeria 7% 15%
Djibouti 40% 20%
Iraq 1% 14%
Jordan 1.50% 12.50%
Lebanon 15% 15%
Mauritania 2.70% 19.60%
Morocco 17% 25%
Oman 0% 2%
Palestine 0%
Independence: 24.4%
Status quo: 12.8%
Tunisia 8.80% 29%
Union of Comoros 0% 84%
Yemen 1% 13%
Unconditional and conditional mitigation targets (Reduction % of the expected emissions)

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• Not all the 20 countries indicated the expected
costs in their INDCs/NDCs
• The total amount for the 8 countries who
mentioned their mitigation costs is more than
USD 109 billion, 71% of which is conditional
on international support
Main findings – Mitigation (Costs)
29%
71%
MITIGATION COSTS
Unconditional
Conditional
• The dependency on the international support ranges between 45% to 100% in some
countries such as Sudan and Palestine
• Some of the countries indicated the costs of the energy sector action’s costs from the
overall mitigation costs such as Morocco who estimated that 65.5% of mitigation
efforts are going to the energy sector

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Main findings – Adaptation
• Adaptation actions often costs less that mitigation actions in almost all
countries since it focuses on several sectors other than energy
• Countries like Morocco and Tunisia have mentioned in their plans that
all the reduction in CO2eq/GHG emissions is to come from the
mitigation actions rather than adaptation’s
• Unlike mitigation, countries did not specify adaptation costs in their
plans. However, Morocco and Palestine estimated in their NDCs that
the adaptation costs will be USD 35 billion and USD 3.5 billion
respectively

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Main findings – Renewable Energy

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Main findings – Energy Efficiency

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Main findings – Water desalination & CCS
• Mentioned in the study only due to their relation with RE and EE
sectors
• The study only mentions the plants that are operating using RES
• Yemen, Qatar, Djibouti, UAE and Tunisia mentioned the water
desalination using RES in their mitigation and/or adaptation plans
• Bahrain, KSA, UAE and Iraq considered Carbon capture and storage
in their plans

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Conclusion
• Not only the financial burdens, but also technology transfer and
capacity building should be considered
• Green Climate Fund (GCF) has been mentioned in several
INDCs/NDC
• The creation of more jobs coming from the energy sector is expected
• Ambitious plans for local manufacturing
• INDCs/NDC are only voluntarily documents, however, they should
become in the early future mandatory actions with regional targets for
the reduction of CO2eq/GHG emissions

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Thank you !
Rana El-Guindy
Senior Specialist – Energy Economist
Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
(RCREEE)
Hydro Power Building (7th Floor)
Block 11 - Piece 15, Melsa District
Ard El Golf, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt
Tel: +20 2 2415 4755 ext. (277)
Fax: +20 2 241 54661
Rana.elguindy@rcreee.org
www.rcreee.org