Transition to E-mobility:Technology and innovation role in facilitating the transition towards New energy systems

1. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION ROLE IN FACILITATING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS NEW ENERGY SYSTEMS 4TH ARAB FORUM FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY 7TH MAY 2018 TRANSITION TO E-MOBILITY

2. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 Contents 1. Ecofys – a Navigant company 2. Transition to e-mobility 3. Flagship references

3. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED33 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED AT A GLANCE: ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY Global consulting company founded in 1984 with the mission to enable sustainable energy for everyone – since 2016, Ecofys has been part of Navigant’s global Energy practice We have over 600 experts skilled in energy, climate, environment, economy, communication, law, and psychology – in 2007, 11 of our experts supporting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Prize together with Al Gore More than 30 years of experience in developing and evaluating policies, sustainability strategies, and scenarios for companies and sectors provides us with deep knowledge of markets and consumer behaviour Our strength lies in our strategic understanding of complex energy and climate transition issues: Ecofys connects the dots within the triangle between governments, energy players, and energy-intensive end-users Ecofys has five offices in four countries: Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cologne & Berlin, Germany; Brussels, Belgium; London, United Kingdom – as part of Navigant, our experts are based in more than 20 offices in the US and Canada, Hong Kong, and the Middle East Copyrightinformation:Freeiconsprovidedbyicons8.comasCCBY-ND3.0

5. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5 Contents 1. Ecofys – A Navigant company 2. Transition to e-mobility 3. Flagship references

6. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED66 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED INTRODUCTION WHY E-MOBILITY? <50 kW AC charging at home DC charging  Electrification of road transport leads to noise reduction in cities and GHG reduction  Electrification of road transport has to be combined with transition to renewable energy sources 29 billion tons CO2

7. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED77 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED INTRODUCTION WHAT IS E-MOBILITY?  Plugin Electric vehicles (PEV) can be fueled at different rates of speed and at different locations  Typical battery capacity and charging modes:  PEV users have a preference to charge at home or at work, due to lower costs and price transparency  Public charging is needed for flexibility and to mitigate range anxiety  Set up of charging mode depends on grid connection and available capacity in kW at location <50 kWh AC charging at home 3.7 - 11 kW AC charging at work 11- 22 kW DC charging 22 kW – 50 kW Ultra DC charging > 50 kW

8. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED8 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED88 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED E-MOBILITY FRONTRUNNERS ON E-MOBILITY 2017 NOR NL UK DE F USA China PEV market share new registrations 39.2 % 2.2 % 1.9 % 1.56 % 1.75 % 1.2% 1.4 % PEV share of total stock 7.7 % 1.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.7 % Public AC charging points 8,292 32,120 11,497 10,878 14,407 36,883 52,779 Public DC charging points 2,058 755 2,759 566 1,904 5,128 88,476 Based on PEV share of total stock diffusion of innovation theory distinguishes between: 1. Early Majority – Only Norway is in that stage with more than 7 % PEV share of total stock 2. Early Adopters – This stage would require more than 2.5 % PEV share of total stock 3. Market Stage Innovators – Other frontrunners are still in this stage 4. Late Majority 5. Laggards

9. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED9 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED99 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED E-MOBILITY SOUND RATIO OF PEVS PER PUBLIC CHARGING POINT IS KEY Source: Own calculations based based on EAFO 2017, IEA 2017, US Department of Energy 2017, BDEW 2017 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of PEVs per charging point China France Germany Netherlands Norway UK USA  EU legislation recommends ideal ratio at 10 PEVs per public charging point  Higher ratio reduces accessibility of charging points, thereby limiting PEV uptake  Lower ratio reduces profitability of public charging point

10. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED10 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1010 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED E-MOBILITY TRANSITION TO E-MOBILITY IS CHALLENGING BUT DOABLE • Battery costs drive PEV price but these costs are decreasing (8% / year). We expect cost parity of PEVs and conventional vehicles by 2020 • Policy incentives are needed to support PEV market uptake (e.g. tax exemption in Norway) • Public investments in sufficient charging infrastructure are necessary to mitigate range anxiety • Charging points need to be registered in publicly accessible real-time database showing location and availability of charging points • Regional or international defined standards for plugs, communication and payment protocols will ensure that PEV drives can charge ad-hoc at every charging point without the need for a contract with specific charge point operator • Charging requires sufficient coverage of power supply • PEVs will have an impact on the grid, but smart and bi-directional (V2G) charging reduces the need for investments in the grid • Transition of power system to 100 % renewable energy sources is needed to maximize GHG emission reduction due to the electrification of road transport PEVs are expansive Range Anxiety Standardization Grid connection and power system Transition towards renewable energy

12. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1212 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED FLAGSHIP REFERENCES EXPERTS ON E-MOBILITY Assessment of challenges of EV charging infrastructure in the EU • Assessment status quo of charging infrastructure and respective policies • Analyzing the linkage between EV uptake and charging infrastructure • Identification of global business models for charging • Drafting of policy recommendation to promote resource efficient, productive, and resilient EU e-mobility policies AC 2030 scenarios for e-mobility and impact analysis • Compiled all e-mobility and other low or zero emission technologies and assessed them to demonstrate their potential for GHG emission cuts from road transport in 2030 • Development of scenarios in which 10%, 30% and 50% emission reductions are realized compared to the 2005 situation Long-term E-mobility vision • Forecast of market uptake of EVs and required charging infrastructure to fulfil demand • Scenario analysis for the optimal charging infrastructure rollout to facilitate the electric vehicle uptake scenarios

13. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED13 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1313 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED FLAGSHIP REFERENCES SUPPORTING GERMAN CLIMATE & ENERGY COOPERATION Support of the German Energy Partnership with the Gulf Countries • Focus: Supporting the German government in the establishment of energy relations with the Gulf countries incl. working papers, expert workshops and study trips on energy efficiency • Client: BMWi Support of the Climate & Energy Working Group of the German G20 presidency • Focus: Support of the German G20 presidency in its negotiations for the climate & energy working group incl. energy efficiency & in high-level workshops & conferences • Client: BMWi Support of German Climate Protection Communication • Focus: Support of „Climate Protection in Numbers“ flagship publication communicating German climate action • Client: BMUB

14. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED14 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1414 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED FLAGSHIP REFERENCES STRONG TECHNICAL AND REGIONAL EXPERTISE MED-ENEC I & II: Energy Efficiency in the Construction Sector in the Mediterranean area • Focus: improve overall conditions for the use of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in the building sector • Client: EU Commission (part I), GIZ for EU Commission (part II) Towards a low-carbon building sector in the MENA region • Focus: increase use of efficient and/or renewable energy-based heating and cooling systems • Client: BMUB Development of sectoral marginal abatement cost curves for Turkey • Focus: development of a sectoral GHG mitigation plan and climate mitigation strategy • Client: World Bank Group

16. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED16 https://ecofys.sharepoint.com/sites/visuals/ Visuals%20Database/01%20Images%20a nd%20photos/Barcelona-night- streetview(c)ECOFYS.jpg CONTACT ADDRESS Albrechtstraße 10c 10117 Berlin Germany T: +49 (0)30 297 735 79-0 OFFICES WORLDWIDE USA: Boulder, Colorado Chicago, Illinois San Francisco, California Washington, DC Europe: Brussels, Belgium Berlin, Cologne Germany, Copenhagen, Denmark London, UK Asia: Seoul, South Korea GENERAL INFORMATION info@ecofys.com WWW.ECOFYS.COM

Transition to E-mobility:Technology and innovation role in facilitating the transition towards New energy systems

Transition to E-mobility:Technology and innovation role in facilitating the transition towards New energy systems

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