Real Miami Beach Keeping Current 2007 06

June 2007

Keeping You Current
Helping our clients understand this crazy
market

www.realmiamibeach.com

4/2007


Somewhat confusing data?
April –

New home sales up 16%
Existing home sales down 2.6%
Remember:
New home sales are reported on signing of the
contract. Existing sales are reported at closing. New
home sales are less than 15% of the total housing
market and are not adjusted for cancellations.


House Prices Slide as Property Glut Grows;
Buyers Gain Bargaining Power In Busy Spring Selling
Season
4/25/2007
“Tighter credit and a growing glut of properties are
depressing an already weak U.S. housing market, wrecking
the industry's hopes for an early rebound.
That leaves buyers in a strong position to negotiate for
bargains during the spring home-shopping season, the
busiest time of the year for housing sales.”


A Closer Look Regionally

Here's what happened across the region with home sales:
5/15/2007 Northeast: existing-home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annual
pace of 1.13 million units in the first quarter from the same
period a year ago. The biggest gain in the region was in New
Jersey, where sales rose 7.6 percent from the fourth quarter of
2006, followed by New York state, up 7.4 percent, and
Massachusetts with a 3.9 percent increase.

The median Northeastern resale single-family home price was
$268,900 in the first quarter, down 2.5 percent from the first quarter
of 2006.



5/15/2007 Midwest: total existing-home sales fell 6.1 percent to a 1.49
million-unit annual level in the first quarter compared with a
year earlier. The largest sales increase in the region was in
Iowa, where sales rose 8.2 percent from the fourth quarter of
2006, followed by North Dakota, which rose 4.7 percent from a
year ago, and Indiana, up 2.9 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was
$154,600, down 2.8 percent from the first quarter of 2006.



5/15/2007 South: total existing-home sales were at an annual rate of 2.51
million units in the first quarter, down 7.3 percent from the first
quarter of 2006. After the District of Columbia, the next
strongest increase in the South was in Arkansas, up 8.8
percent from a year ago, followed by Kentucky, which rose 3.9
percent, and Texas, up 2.7 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the South was
$177,800 in the first quarter, which is 0.6 percent below a year
earlier.



5/15/2007 West: the existing-home sales pace of 1.28 million units fell
11.9 percent from the first quarter of 2006. After Wyoming, the
best performance in the region was in Colorado where sales
rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier.
The median existing single-family home price in the West was
$336,200 in the first quarter, down 1.8 percent from a year ago.


Foreclosure continues to be a
serious concern for many U.S.
4/23/2007 home owners.
Indeed, according to a recent survey from
Yahoo Real Estate and Harris Interactive,
22 percent of home owners are at least
somewhat concerned about the
possibility of foreclosure due to their
inability to meet monthly mortgage
payments.


More than 430,000 U.S. foreclosure filings were
reported in the first three months of 2007.
RealtyTrac estimates that more than half of the
4/23/2007
first-quarter foreclosure activity was from
subprime loans. However, it’s not just low-end
homes that are affected, said James J. Saccacio,
CEO.
“We’re seeing a rising percentage of
foreclosures with an estimated market value
of more than $750,000.”

osed
recl
Fo


States with the most foreclosures
State
5/1/2007 1. California
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Michigan
5. Ohio
6. Georgia
7. Illinois
8. Colorado
9. New Jersey
10. New York


The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that
2.2 million American households have lost or will lose
5/15/2007 their homes as monthly payments rise on high-risk
mortgages in the next few years.


Housing Still a Drag on Economy
Through 2007
5/21/2007
A survey of 48 economists conducted by
the National Association for Business
Economics also concluded that housing
market troubles will last through the
end of the year.


Stocks vs. real estate
A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and
economics professor at Baruch College in New York
City, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared the
4/20/2007
annual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004
compared with those of stocks.
The results?

Investment Return
Housing 8.6%
Commercial Property 9.5%
The S&P 13.4%


5/2007

http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf
/pages/presentations_use

The supply of houses and
condominiums available for
sale continues to grow
5/15/2007 quickly in much of the U.S.,
reflecting weak sales. The
number of homes listed for
sale at the end of April was
up seven percent from
March, according to data
compiled by ZipRealty Inc.


The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22
years, home inventories nationwide have increased an
5/15/2007 average of 4.5 percent in April from March, according to
Credit Suisse Group. Spring is the busiest time of year for
home shopping, as families with children try to get settled
ahead of the next school year.


Most Overpriced Markets
San Diego
5/1/2007
Miami
Sacramento, Calif.
San Francisco
Washington, D.C.
Honolulu
New Jersey
Los Angeles
Boston
San Jose, Calif.


5/8/2007


4/25/2007


Falling...
Nassau/Suffolk, New York
May 2007

12-month forecast: - 6%
Median home price: $483,000
Five year price change: 76.3%
Worst one-year decline: 6.6%
Year of worst decline: '88-'89


Area Average SP % Depreciation

Fort Lauderdale $325,000 -5.5%
Phoenix $271,000 -5.5%
Nassau/Suffolk $483,000 -6.0%
Miami $335,000 -8.8%
Las Vegas $325,000 -8.8%

http://money.cnn.com/
2007/04/09/real_estate/
forecast.moneymag/index.htm


How do we differentiate ourselves?

“The agent who knows all
the numbers, and can
explain them, will be seen
as the professional.”

I hope July will bring better
news ! Happy 4th , Madeleine


Real Miami Beach Keeping Current 2007 06

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