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Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation

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By John Ulimwengu

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Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation

  1. 1. Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and Implementation John Ulimwengu, Africa-wide ReSAKSS Coordinator Senior Research Fellow, Africa Region, IFPRI, USA
  2. 2. TRACKING CAADP INDICATORS • Track progress on CAADP indicators • CAADP RF, +40 indicators • Including CAADP expenditure & growth targets • Interactive website www.resakss.org • Publish flagship Annual Trends & Outlook Reports (ATORs) • Africawide ATOR is the official CAADP M&E Report • In-depth analysis of a feature topic • Next ATORs on Social Protection (2018) & Gender (2019) • Chapter on CAADP RF
  3. 3. SHARE OF GOVERNMENT AGRICULTURE EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE (%), 2008–2014 AND 2014– 2018 • Annual average growth in Africa’s government agricultural expenditure has significantly declined in recent years. • It grew at 0.5 percent in 2008–2014 and at 0.9 percent in 2014–2018 compared with 7.2 percent in 2003–2008 and 10.5 percent in 1995–2003. • share of agricultural expenditure increased on average 3.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, but then decelerated to only grow at 3.2 percent between 2014 and 2018 Malawi SierraLeone Mali Senegal Niger Rwanda Cameroon CaboVerde Zimbabwe Gambia Uganda Mozambique Cent.Af.Rep. Guinea Nigeria Guinea-Bissau Burundi Seychelles Botswana Congo,Rep. Sudan Comoros EquatorialGuinea Percent Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2018) CAADP 10% target
  4. 4. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION INDEX NUMBER (2004-2006 = 100) (INT. $) • During the review period, API increased consistently for Africa • For Africa as a whole, it grew by 2.8 percent in 1995–2003, 3.2 percent in 2003–2008, and 3.6 percent in 2014– 2016. 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2016)
  5. 5. AGRICULTURE VALUE ADDED ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH (%), 2014-2018 • Only 15 countries either met or surpassed the 6 percent target in 2014–2018 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Annual avg. change (2014-2018) CAADP 6% Target
  6. 6. AGRICULTURE VALUE ADDED PER WORKER (CONSTANT 2010 USS) • Agriculture labor productivity for Africa as a whole, measured by agriculture value added per agricultural worker, decelerated from an annual average growth of 2.2 percent in the period 1995– 2003 to 1.5 percent in 2008–2014 before increasing to a 2.0 percent growth rate over the 2014–2018 period -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. change (1995-2003) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2018)
  7. 7. AGRICULTURE VALUE ADDED PER HECTARE OF AGRICULTURAL LAND (CONSTANT 2010 USS) • For Africa as a whole, annual average growth in land productivity, measured by agricultural value added per hectare of arable land, declined from 3.3 percent in 1995– 2003 to 1.7 percent in 2008–2014 and rose to 6.2 percent in 2014–2018 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. change (1995-2003) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2018)
  8. 8. CAADP STATUS MATTERS Note: • CL1=group of countries that have signed a CAADP compact; • CL2=group of countries that have signed a compact and formulated a NAIP; • CL3=group of countries that have signed a compact, formulated a NAIP, and secured one external funding sources; • CL4=group of countries that have signed a compact, formulated a NAIP, and secured more than one external funding source. 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 CAADP Level 1 CAADP Level 2 CAADP Level 3 CAADP Level 4 AgVAperworker Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2018) 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 CAADP Level 1 CAADP Level 2 CAADP Level 3 CAADP Level 4 AgVAperha Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2018) Labor productivity Land productivity
  9. 9. INTRA-AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL TRADE, EXPORTS (CONSTANT 2010 US$, MILLION) • Growth in intra-African agricultural exports has been particularly strong, with Africa’s intra-African agricultural exports more than quadrupling between 2003–2008 and 2014–2018. • The progressive elimination of tariff and nontariff barriers as envisioned under the African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to significantly improve Africa’s trade performance. 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2018)
  10. 10. UNDERNOURISHMENT • For Africa as a whole, the prevalence of undernourishment declined slowly; • from an annual average of 20.6 percent in 2003–2008 to 18.2 percent in 2008–2014 and remained at 18.2 percent in the more recent period of 2014– 2016, the latest period for which data are available 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2016)
  11. 11. PREVALENCE OF UNDERWEIGHT, WEIGHT FOR AGE (% OF CHILDREN UNDER 5) • Throughout the review period (1995–2018), Africa as a whole and most countries have consistently experienced a decline in the prevalence of child malnutrition— that is, stunting (low height-for- age), underweight (low weight-for- age), and wasting (low weight-for- height)—among children under the age of five years. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. level (1995-2003) Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2018)
  12. 12. POVERTY REDUCTION • Africa has managed to consistently reduce poverty over the past two decades. • The proportion of Africa’s population living below the poverty line (US$1.90 a day), measured by the poverty headcount ratio, declined by 6 percentage points from 41.8 percent in 2003–2008 to 35.6 percent in 2014–2018 -16.00 -14.00 -12.00 -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 Africa SSA Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Annual avg. change (1995-2003) Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2018)
  13. 13. CONCLUDING REMARKS • Progress in CAADP implementation is commendable and most CAADP indicators have trended in the expected direction since 2003. • However, significant deceleration in the reduction of inequality, poverty, and undernourishment, and child malnutrition still relatively high. • Location matters and should be properly accounted for when designing interventions. • Need to accelerate efforts to transform Africa’s agriculture sector by substantially raising agricultural productivity growth.
  14. 14. THANK YOU

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