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Ian Nockolds - 11th September 2018
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Planning for new communities
1.
Planning for new communities Ian
Nockolds 11th September 2018
2.
Housing “Crisis” © Cognisant
Research 2
3.
Government response © Cognisant
Research 3 the The government has promised 300,000 more new houses a year will be built.
4.
BUT what about community
infrastructure? © Cognisant Research 4
5.
BUT what about community
infrastructure? © Cognisant Research 5 the School places Travel & transport Community buildings Libraries Doctors surgeries Needs of our aging population
6.
…and when things
go wrong © Cognisant Research 6
7.
Research has a
vital role to play © Cognisant Research 7
8.
Population Ratios © Cognisant
Research 8 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed 0 -19 0.00 0.49 0.89 1.03 20 - 30 0.77 0.74 0.58 0.31 31 - 50 0.15 0.37 0.88 1.08 51 - 64 0.08 0.21 0.23 0.41 65 - 74 0.08 0.12 0.11 0.18 75+ 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.04
9.
Vehicle Ownership © Cognisant
Research 9
10.
Pupil Product Ratios ©
Cognisant Research 10 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed Pre School Children 0.09 0.32 0.33 0.34 Primary School Children 0.02 0.19 0.35 0.41 Secondary School Children 0.00 0.05 0.20 0.25 Post 16 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.08
11.
Community Infrastructure © Cognisant
Research 11
12.
Our Starting Point ©
Cognisant Research 12
13.
Child Product Ratios 0
-19 years old by dwelling size House Size CPR 1-Bed 0.11 2-Bed 0.60 3-Bed 0.97 4+ Bed 1.12 Overall 0.86 © Cognisant Research 13
14.
Good quality research It’s
about solving a problem What are child yields used for? - Developer negotiations i.e. Section 106/CIL - Pupil Place Planning Identifying trends - Affordable Housing - Urban & Rural Developments Can new developments sustain provision? - Predicting population change © Cognisant Research 14
15.
How we do
it… Step 1: Sampling Step 2: Household Survey (Sample or Census) Step 3: Data Processing © Cognisant Research 15
16.
What we are
finding: The realities of Population Forecasting © Cognisant Research 16
17.
Securing the housebuilding
data Councils can’t access basic data on how many houses have been built © Cognisant Research 17
18.
Anticipating error How
many bedrooms are there in your property? © Cognisant Research 18
19.
Anticipating error When
is a Primary School pupil not a Primary School pupil? © Cognisant Research 19
20.
Anticipating error When
they go to a Middle School! © Cognisant Research 20
21.
Anticipating error How
often do you go to your local library? - Perceived v Actual usage - Cross Border usage © Cognisant Research 21 Visit Frequency Overall 1 2 3 4 Daily 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 Weekly 0.49 1.00 0.33 0.28 0.74 Monthly 0.66 0.00 0.49 0.69 0.74 Annually 0.33 0.00 0.20 0.34 0.40 Never 1.13 1.00 0.96 1.07 1.24
22.
What we are
finding: In terms of actual data © Cognisant Research 22
23.
Pupil Product Ratios ©
Cognisant Research 23 Education Level Per Dwelling Pre School Children 0.32 Primary School Children 0.30 Secondary School Children 0.16 Post 16 0.05 Other 0.03
24.
Pupil Product Ratios ©
Cognisant Research 24 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed Pre School Children 0.09 0.32 0.33 0.34 Primary School Children 0.02 0.19 0.35 0.41 Secondary School Children 0.00 0.05 0.20 0.25 Post 16 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.08
25.
© Cognisant Research
25
26.
27.
28.
29.
Primary Yields from 1000
Dwellings © Cognisant Research 29
30.
Top Level Age Profile ©
Cognisant Research 30 Age in years Numberofchildren 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 New Build Census Yields based on 1000 dwellings
31.
Top Level Age Profile ©
Cognisant Research 31 Age in years Numberofchildren 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 New Build Census Yields based on 1000 dwellings New dwellings generate approx. 300 more children than the Census would suggest
32.
The Future © Cognisant
Research 32
33.
Local Government Resources ©
Cognisant Research 33
34.
Research can play
a pivotal role in planning infrastructure © Cognisant Research 34 Research Data 300,000 Homes Infrastructure
35.
What is the
best approach? © Cognisant Research 35
36.
Going forward… What
do we know about future development? - What can we learn from existing development? Scenario planning Single Forecasting Model? If “new developments” are different, how long until they normalise? © Cognisant Research 36
37.
Cognisant Research Your questions
answered
Editor's Notes
Other includes Home School, Uni, Not in Education and Special School. Data based on 4565 interviews across 4 Counties.
People infographics
Is this based on SEE
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