This document discusses techniques for basic risk identification: 1) Interviewing subject matter experts allows risks to be identified that may not be known to the project team. Brainstorming encourages identifying many risks but must be facilitated properly. The Delphi technique uses anonymous interviews to get expert opinions. 2) Nominal group technique combines individual and group work in a structured process. Crawford slips have individuals privately write risks for fast identification. Analogy identifies risks based on similarities to past projects. 3) Checklists and templates systematize the identification of risks based on historical data from other organizations.

1. Basic Risk Identification
Techniques
Ricardo Viana Vargas, MSc, IPMA-B, PMP
ricardo.vargas@macrosolutions.com.br
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2. Ricardo Viana Vargas, MSc, IPMA-B, PMP
Ricardo Viana Vargas is a project, portfolio and risk management specialist. During the past 15 years, he has been responsible
for over 80 major projects in various countries in the areas of petroleum, energy, infrastructure, telecommunications,
information technology and finances, comprising an investment portfolio of over 18 billion dollars.
He was the first Latin American volunteer to be elected Chairman of the Board for the Project Management Institute (PMI),
the largest project management organization in the world with close to 500,000 members and certified professionals in 175
countries.
Ricardo Vargas has written ten books on project management, published in Portuguese and English, which have sold over
200,000 copies throughout the world. In 2005 he received the PMI Distinguished Award for his contribution to the
development of project management and the PMI Professional Development Product of the Year award for the PMDome®
workshop, considered the best project management training solution in the world.
He is a project management professor for various MBA courses, and actively participates on editorial boards for specialized
journals in Brazil and the United States. Vargas is a recognized reviewer of the PMBOK Guide, the most important reference in
the world for project management, and also chaired the official translation of PMBOK into Portuguese.
He is a chemical engineer and holds a master’s degree in Industrial Engineering from UFMG (Federal University of Minas
Gerais). Ricardo Vargas also holds a Master Certificate in Project Management from George Washington University and is
certified both as a Project Management Professional (PMP) by PMI and as IPMA-B by the International Project Management
Association. He attended the Program on Negotiation for Executives at Harvard Law School.
Over an eleven year timeframe, which began in 1995, Ricardo, in conjunction with two partners, established one of the most
solid Brazilian businesses in the area of technology, project management and outsourcing, which had a staff of 4,000
collaborators and an annual income of 50 million dollars in 2006, when Ricardo Vargas sold his share of the company to
dedicate himself on a fulltime basis to the internationalization of his project management activities.
He is a member of the Association for Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), the American Management Association
(AMA), the International Project Management Association (IPMA), the Institute for Global Ethics and the Professional Risk
Management International Association (PRMIA).
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3. Risk Identification Techniques
Interview with Delphi
Brainstorming
SME’s Technique
Nominal Group
Technique Crawford Slip Analogy
(NGT)
Checklist,
Forms and
Templates
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4. Interview with SME’s (Subject Matter Experts)
Technique used to inquire issues related to
doubts and other technical characteristics,
normally not covered by the project
teamEntrevistados
• Experts external to the team and/or corporation
• Consultants
• Project team
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5. Interview with Experts - Process
Define the list
Define the Define the
of
scope Facilitator
interviewees
Receive Send questions
Develop the
answers from to
questions
interviewees interviewees
Fill up the list
Consolidate
of identified
Responses
risks
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6. Brainstorming
Identification of Team must be Highly creative
many risks available and synergetic
If not adequately
Encourages
executed, it can
teamwork
lead to “chaos”
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7. Brainstorming - Process
Define the Define the Define the List
Scope Facilitador of Participants
Fill up the List Conduct the
Consolidate the
with the Brainstorming
Responses
Identified Risks Session
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8. Delphi Technique
It’s a type of interview The interviews are
with SME’s anonymous
It’s used when there
may be conflicts or It’s used to get
comments from
confrontation, or when
“competitors”
brainstorming is not
recommended
Slow and hard-working
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9. Delphi Technique - Process
Define the Develop the Define the List of
Define the scope
Facilitator Questions Interviewees
n times
Redistribute the Consolidate the Receive the Distribute the
Questions Responses Answers Questions/Survey
Consolidate the Fill up the List with
Final Results Identified Risks
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10. Nominal Group Technique - NGT
It allows a certain
Individual
degree of
Brainstorming
prioritization
It’s a mix of
Fast and effective
individual and
group participation
It lessens the
“chaos” of
brainstorming
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11. Nominal Group Technique - Process
Define the List of
Define the Schedule the
Participants
Define the Scope
Facilitator Meeting
(between 6 and 8)
Facilitator writes Each Participant Start the meeting
Each Participant
down the First Risk creates his/her own and state the rules,
orders his/her Risks
of each Participant Risk List time and process
n times
Facilitator writes
Facilitator writes Fill up the List of
down the second Consolidate the
down n Risks from Identified Risks
Risk of each Final Results
each Participant (prioritized)
Participant
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12. Crawford Slip
It’s used to
It used a “slip” or
identify many risks
piece of paper like
in a short period
Post-It®
of time
Individual Group
Brainstorming consolidation
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13. Crawford Slip - Process
Define the List of
Define the Schedule the
Participants
Define the Scope
Facilitator meeting
(between 6 and 8)
Start the meeting
Distribute the List to Collect slips and Each Participant
stating the rules,
the Participants for consolidate the List writes down 1 Risk
time and number of
Final Comments of Identified Risks for Minute
risks
Consolidate the Fill up the List with
Final Results Identified Risks
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14. Analogy
Based on previous history
A reference is needed
The available information
must be adjusted to the
current scenario
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15. Analogy - Process
Define which
Consolidate the
previous Projects
Risks from previous
Define the Scope
can be used as
Projects
references
Adapt the List of
Distribute the List to Develop the Initial
Risks to the current
Team members List of Risks
Project
Team analyse the
Consolidate the Fill up the List of
Preliminary List of
Final Results Identified Risks
Risks
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16. Checklist, Surveys and Templates
When there are Based on the concept
historical that no new project has
data/studies/data from a complete new set of
other organizations risks
Uses Risk Breakdown
Used to refine your List
Structures to make risk
of Risks
identification easier
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17. Visit
www.ricardo-vargas.com
to access other presentations,
podcasts, videos and technical
content about project , risk and
portfolio management.
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