2010 Getting Beyond The Turbulent time by SMITH-TRG, Richard D. Smith, The Need for U.S. Job Crowth and Wealth Creation Machines to drive to 3.6 net jobs per year (of 16 million required) and add $180 billion in first year to nations economy. Position the nation for FUTURE WORLD enterprise growth and sustainable job creation.
2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times By Richard D. Smith, Smith Trg
1. SMITH-TRG
2010
Getting Beyond Turbulent Times
‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’
By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRG
Executive Briefing, Washington, D. C.
January 5, 2010
2. Contents . . .
Some ‘Turbulent Times’ Facts
2010 Challenges You Face
Enterprise Path to Prosperity
WHY: Act Now?
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4. 57% of GDP is Publicly Held Federal Debt
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Peter Orszag, Director,
Office of Management & Budget (OMB)
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5. SMITH-TRG
U. S. Debt is $12.1 Trillion
Nearly $39,000 for Every U.S. Resident
a.k.a. the
DEBT BOMB!
legacy. . .
Deficit Growth: $162 Billion in 2007, $455 Billion 2008,
and $1.8 Billion by YE 2009 (was $1.4 Billion in Oct.)
6. WITHIN A
DECADE…
Average American
Household
(that pays income taxes)
Will Owe
the equivalent of
$155,000
In Federal Debt
(about $90,000 more than last year)
Source: FORTUNE June 22, 2009
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7. $39,446 is Average American’s Income
As of October 2009, the average American’s annual
income was up only 5.3% in inflation-adjusted terms
from the end of the 1980s. That's the slowest growth
registered in at least six decades.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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8. SMITH-TRG
26.5 Million or 17.3%
of Americans are Jobless or Underemployed
U.S. Population grew by 35 million from 1999 to 2009,
while the economy gained virtually no jobs. Employed
people: 1999 – 130,532,000 vs. 2009 – 130,996,000
9. 1 in 5 People. . .
are Either Unemployed, Involuntarily Working Part-Time
or “Marginally Attached“
The government's broadest measure of labor
underutilization (known as the U6) has more The number of people involuntarily
than doubled in the two years since the working part-time jobs has more
recession began to 17.5%, and it is up from than doubled to 9.3 million the highest
12% just a year ago. number on record.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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11. SMITH-TRG
19.1 % up from 10.7%
Construction Industry’s Unemployment Rate
The transportation and material-
moving sectors saw unemployment
rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the
same period.
12. SMITH-TRG
Projected 9.4 Million
Private-Sector Jobs Deficit by Year End 2009
13. Currently, 25 states have
run out of unemployment
money and have borrowed
$24 billion from the federal
government to cover the
gaps.
The nation's jobless toll is draining unemployment-
compensation funds so fast that, according to federal
projections, 40 state programs will go broke by 2011
and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing benefits.
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14. THE BIGGEST
LOSERS: States
Job losses are causing income losses, which in turn are
constraining private demand, reducing tax revenues
and causing higher deficits.
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16. SMITH-TRG
New Year Assessment
Data Source: Office of Management & Budget
I. Even with a strong recovery, annual deficits will
average about 5% of GDP over the next decade, and
total debt will climb to nearly 77% of GDP, its highest
level since 1952.
II. Persistent deficits of this size will put upward pressure
on long-term interest rates, crowding out investment
and stunting long-term growth. Interest payments on
the debt will be onerous - by 2019 they will exceed
defense spending.
III. Investor anxiety about the huge borrowing needs of
the U.S. government could trigger a sharp decline in the
dollar and another crisis in global financial markets.
18. 2010, Must
Be About Jobs . . .
WHY?
Every 1 Million New Jobs
Puts $50 Billion into
Nations Economic Gas Tank!
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19. SMITH-TRG
Economic Impact of Deferred Jobs Creation
Fill 10
Each month delay in creating and
Million
filling 1 million U.S. jobs defers Jobs
$50 Billion in annual national
economic benefit/value. Fill 5
Million $500 Billion Value
Jobs
Fill 2
Million $250 Billion Value
Jobs Employing 8 million of 16
million unemployed would
add $400 Billion to national
$100 Billion Value
economy.
20. Your Biggest “Even if the nation could add 2.15
million private-sector jobs per year
Challenge starting in January 2010, it would
need to maintain this pace for
more than 7 straight years (7.63
years), or until August 2017, to
eliminate the jobs deficit!”
- Advance & Rutgers Report, Sept. 09
By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca
Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning
& Public Policy
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21. Remember. . .
7 years (2010 to 2017)
just to recover 9.4 million
lost jobs (a.k.a. jobs deficit.)
+
Nation still needs to create
100,000 additional net new
jobs per month (1.2 Mil. Yr.,
2010 to 2017) to support
workforce growth.
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22. Need Jobs Beginning January 1st, 2010
(‘Net New’ Job Needs Per Month/Every Month)
200,000 new jobs monthly: to reduce ‘jobs deficit’
100,000 new jobs monthly: for ‘workforce’ growth
YE 2010 Total: 3,600,000 ‘Net New’ Jobs
$180 Billion – National Value
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23. Enterprise Path to Prosperity
(FUTURE-WORLD opportunities. . .)
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24. Position for FUTURE-WORLD Commerce
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Build 21ST Century Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines
C R E A T E ‘S U S T A I N A B L E’ U. S. J O B S!
25. BE TRANSFORMATIVE
“Now is the time for America to do
a business growth paradigm shift.
A transformative rethink of how it
designs, finances, builds and grows
market competitive U.S. based
businesses.”
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26. GLOBALIZATION
ACCEPT GLOBALIZATION
“A new world order is dawning – one
in which the West is no longer dominant,
capitalism (at least the American version)
is out of favor, and protectionism
is on the rise.”
- Roger Altman
Former Deputy Treasury Sec., Clinton Administration
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27. EMBRACE INNOVATION
BUSINESS MODEL “Innovation has become
INNOVATION
the new currency of global
PRODUCT/SERVICE competition as one country after
INNOVATION another races toward a new high
ground where the capacity for
PROCESS INNOVATION
innovation is viewed as a
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
hallmark of national success.”
- John Kao, quotes
Author, INNOVATION NATION, 2007
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28. ARTICULATE VISION
(photos of visionary CEO’s from across industry sectors)
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29. SMITH-TRG
F O C U S O N ‘FUTURE-WORLD’ N E E D S
Customer Centricity.
Performance Improvement.
Innovation.
Value Creation.
30. UNDERSTAND FANATICISM
“I think fanaticism is underrated.
I’m a fanatic about the engineering
groups. Steve (Jobs) is a fanatic
about the user experience and
the design.”
- Bill Gates, Microsoft
Advice for entrepreneurs, enterprise game changers
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31. B E E N T R EP R E N E U R I A L
(photos of entrepreneurs who drive change and create value in diverse market sectors)
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32. A S S E S S E ME R G I N G M A R K E T S
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33. 8 Emerging Market Opportunities
(in no particular order)
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1) Modular Kitchens:
Think college dorm rooms, worker
housing, disaster recovery
lodging, NYC apartments, etc…
34. 8 Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order)
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2 & 3) Flexible Screen
Technologies & Roll-up
Laptop (closed/open)
Digital-Media applications of
technology, lines-of-business
segments unlimited…
35. 8 Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order)
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4 & 5) Cyber Security & Intranets.
Gartner Research estimates that about 15 percent of
all small businesses suffered a hack attack in 2008.
NATO Chief of Cyber Defense:
“Cyber terrorism poses as great a threat to national
security as a missile attack. In 2008, the Department
of Defense suffered an estimated 80,000 network
attacks. On government networks alone, a new
software vulnerability is exploited every 82 minutes.”
The financial and economic impact of a one day
cyber sabotage effort that disrupts US credit and
debit card transactions is estimated at being about
$35 billion USD.
36. 8 Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order)
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6) Cyber Secure Digital-Media Cities,
Eco Future-World New & Upgraded
Multi-Purpose Population Centers
Capital intensive ($5 to $45 Bil.) strategic long-term
investments – energy efficient digital-enabled life.
37. 8 Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order)
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7) Health Care Solutions
Technology enabled health care treatment solutions
forecasted by some to be $2 Trillion U.S. market.
38. 8 Opportunities continued . . .
(in no particular order)
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8) Wireless Application Solutions
Think beyond Apple’s iPhone, Google
smartphones, Nokia, Samsung and others.
Think about Tablets, in-car systems, multi-
touch flex-screens – all part of digital media
future-world.
“The greatest value creation opportunity
will fall to those who give the end-user
consumer what they want…really, really
want. And that is: an integrated, easy to
use, video media experience, anytime,
anywhere, and on any platform.”
- Richard D. Smith, SMITH-TRG
Author, AD-MIRED, 2006, book quote
39. SMITH-TRG
Mobile APPs continued . . .
– 2008 - 1.19 Billion Mobile Phones “What you carry on your belt
Sold World-wide. 155 Million (13%)
were Smartphones
is now your MP3 player, will
be your plasma TV, is your
–
WHY MOBILE APPLICATIONS?
By 2013 20% or 280 Million (SP’s) social networking machine,
is your Internet terminal,
– Apple: 100,000 APP’s vs. RIM’s: 2,000Billion 2008 to $25 Billion 2014
Market Forecast: From $7
Sources: Juniper Research & IDC
APP’s your camera, your personal
navigation device.”
– Others: Google, Sprint’s Palm,
Motorola – 2 new devices, then - Jim Basillie
Nokia, Samsung, and host of new Co-CEO, Research-in-Motion
entrants. . .
41. SMITH-TRG
New Enterprise Associates (Large VC)
Just Closed 13th Fund
Raised nearly
$2.5 Billion
Core Investment Areas
Information Technology
Energy Technology
Health Care Art by: John Kuczala
42. K E E P: E Y E O N T H E P R I Z E
– Every morning in Africa, a
gazelle wakes up. It knows
that it must run faster than
the fastest lion, or IT WILL
BE KILLED.
– Every morning in Africa, a
lion wakes up. It knows that
it must outrun the slowest
gazelle, or IT WILL STARVE
TO DEATH.
– In Africa, it doesn’t matter
whether you’re a lion or a
gazelle. When the SUN
COMES UP, YOU’D BETTER
BE RUNNING!
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