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Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts? Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global tempera- tures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future. Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earth’s climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects. They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates. This new paradigm of abrupt climate change has been well established over the last decade by research of ocean, earth The global ocean circulation system, often called the Ocean Conveyor, transports heat worldwide. White sections represent warm surface currents. Purple sections represent cold deep currents. and atmosphere scientists at many institutions worldwide. But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policy mak- ers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world leaders may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur.1 It is important to clarify that we are not contemplating a situation of either abrupt cooling or global warming. Rather, abrupt regional cooling and gradual global warming can un- fold simultaneously. Indeed, greenhouse warming is a desta- bilizing factor that makes abrupt climate change more prob- able. A 2002 report by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) said, “available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies.”2 The timing of any abrupt regional cooling in the future also has critical policy implications. An abrupt cooling that hap- pens within the next two decades would produce different climate effects than one that occurs after another century of continuing greenhouse warming.

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