2. This playbook was written
in 2020 during the global
COVID-19 pandemic. At
the time of this writing, we
know two things for certain.
One, throughout history, from the Plague of
Athens in 430 BCE to the Spanish flu in
1918, infectious diseases have swept
through the human population, caused
massive disruption, and then have subsided
or have been controlled. COVID-19 will be
no different. The pandemic will end, and the
world’s economies will return to some
semblance of a new normal.
Two, the pandemic has already disrupted how many
organizations and economies operate, and some of
these changes will be permanent. This has happened
before. For example, the Black Death that struck
Europe in 1348 is credited with dismantling the
medieval economic system of feudalism and paving
the way for the Renaissance.
From an economic standpoint, relative to other
disruptive events in the past century such as the
Great Depression and the Great Recession, the
hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic is the swiftness
with which it attacked the human population and
forced industrialized nations into the Great
Lockdown.
Key negative metrics including the number of
government-ordered business shutdowns and the
resulting rate of unemployment skyrocketed
immediately, leaving organizations with little time to
adjust to the realities of slashed sales and curtailed
production, or even the total cessation of all
operations.
Introduction
It is difficult to find a similar moment in human
history where every aspect of industry and
commerce, in every region of the
industrialized world, and in every consumer
segment, has faced such an abrupt and
deliberate shutdown as during the COVID-19
global pandemic.
The following is an analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic
wreaked massive disruption on individual components of the
global economy—and what leaders can expect in the post-
pandemic new normal.
Richie Etwaru
Chief Executive Officer
Shaleen Gupta
President & Chief
Operating Officer
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3. First, let’s define the four periods of time characterizing the
COVID-19 pandemic from beginning to end.
The Great Lockdown
New Normal
Defined as the period where
COVID-19 has become as
manageable as any other
infectious disease such as
HIV/AIDS or influenza.
Businesses will be consciously
working at thriving in the new
norm, where all the old
assumptions are being
challenged and new realities are
gaining strength.
Peak-Pandemic
Defined as the period beginning in mid-March 2020
and extending through the active phase of the
pandemic. Most industrialized nations instituted
rigorous pandemic control measures designed to
curtail human interaction, and therefore the ability
of many organizations to conduct business. Human
society experienced economic contraction,
stagnation, strain, uncertainty, increased remote
working, decreased numbers of customers,
widespread financial collapse, mass deaths,
layoffs, furloughs, government bailouts, and a high
reliance on digital networks, connectivity, and video
calls.
1
Pre-Pandemic
In 2019, most industrialized
nations, including the United
States, were concerned with
everyday issues and not
preparing to confront a new
global infectious disease. In
the US, the stock market was
riding a 12-year bull market
and unemployment was at
historic lows. In January 2020,
US GDP growth was 2.3
percent.
Recovery
Defined as the period during which new
infections and deaths have been steadily
declining for a period of two weeks, and
with some regions loosening government
restrictions on economic activity. This
period is not characterized by a “grand-re-
opening” on a particular date. It’s slow
and gradual and is expected to last many
months or even years. Re-opening takes
time; for example, the 2020 Summer
Olympics in Tokyo, Japan have been
rescheduled to take place in 2021.
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5. Pre-Pandemic
Underneath the rosy
exterior were some dormant
structural weaknesses.
The American healthcare system was built on a
combination of private insurers, employer-
provided coverage, and Medicare for retirees. It
was universally regarded as too expensive and
focused too much on diagnosis and treatment
rather than health and wellness. The idea of a
single-payer nationalized healthcare system,
similar to the UK’s National Health Service
(NHS), which has been in place since 1948, was
promoted by politicians such as Senator Bernie
Sanders. The concept was anathema to
conservatives, who were motivated to repeal
and replace the Affordable Care Act, which had
represented a modest step toward providing
private/public healthcare.
The gap between rich and poor was wide and
getting wider. Over the previous 50 years, the
highest-earning 20% of US households had
captured an increasingly larger share of the
nation’s total income. According to Census
Bureau data, in 2018, households in the top fifth
of earners netted 52% of all U.S. income, more
than the lower four-fifths combined.
The gap wasn’t just in income; it was in family
wealth. In 2016, the Brookings Foundation found
that at $171,000, the net worth of a typical white
family was nearly ten times greater than that of
a black family ($17,150). Black household net
worth had actually declined since its peak in
2001.
The middle class was shrinking. Pew Research
reported that in the nearly 20 years from 1991 to
2010, the portion of US adults living in middle-
class households fell from 62% to 59%. While in
the following decade the numbers of families
considered middle class remained stable, their
share of the income pie continued to fall.
The median income of middle-class households in
2016 was about the same as in 2000, a reflection of
the lingering effects of the Great Recession and the
recession of 2001. During the same period, low-
income households saw a drop in income, while the
incomes of upper-income households increased.
Many US families had low cash reserves. The
Federal Reserve repeatedly found that a significant
share of households would struggle to meet an
unexpected expense of $400. The Pew Charitable
Trusts found that many families lacked funds to
cover a $2,000 expense. The AARP reported that
more than half of American households (53 percent)
had no emergency savings account.
The national debt had risen to more than $24 trillion.
It had increased by $1 trillion each year since 2007,
and was by far the largest in the world. Opinions
varied greatly on the significance of this.
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6. Pre-Pandemic
These various dormant weaknesses are
notable because each one of them was
exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It
made each one of them worse.
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7. Peak-Pandemic
Over 3 million people
around the world had
become infected with
COVID-19, with more
than 200,000 deaths.
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8. Peak-Pandemic
Over 3 million people
around the world had
become infected with
COVID-19, with more than
200,000 deaths.
In just four weeks, 22 million Americans were
laid off and filed for unemployment benefits. A
third of the U.S. economy was shut down, and
real unemployment hit 25 percent. The US
Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief,
and Economic Security Act (CARES) providing
an estimated $2 trillion stimulus package, with
more expected.
With the COVID-19 virus forcing people to stay
at home, many enterprises had to quickly shift to
a remote workforce. Paul Estes, editor in chief of
Staffing.com, told Forbes, “An estimated 58% of
knowledge workers now work remotely. The
feeling that work couldn’t be done remotely is
largely debunked.” Chris Dwyer, VP of R&D for
Ardent Partners, said, “Some business leaders
call this the greatest remote work experiment in
history.”
Manufacturing companies struggled to balance
worker safety and production. On April 15, 2020,
the Smithfield Foods meat processing plant in
Sioux Falls, SD, closed after being called the
number one hotspot in the US, with a cluster of
644 diagnosed infections. In the Midwest, many
other meat processing plants were soon
shuttered, reducing supplies for grocery stores
and increasing pressure for farmers.
604B
500B
377B
339B
179B
Individuals
Large
Corporations
Small
Businesses
State & Local
Governments
Public Services
30%
25%
19%
17%
9%
U.S. CARES Act 2 Trillion
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9. Peak-Pandemic
In just four weeks, 22 million Americans were
laid off and filed for unemployment benefits. A
third of the U.S. economy was shut down, and
real unemployment hit 25 percent.
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10. Recovery
This period is not
characterized by a
“grand-re-opening”. It’s
slow & gradual, and
expected to last months
or even years.
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11. Recovery
Defined as the period during
which new infections and
deaths have been steadily
declining for a period of two
weeks, and with some
regions loosening
government restrictions on
economic activity.
This period is not characterized by a “grand-re-
opening” on a particular date. It’s slow and
gradual, and is expected to last many months or
even years. As of late April 2020, the US
Federal Government had abdicated
responsibility for re-opening the
US economy to the governors of the fifty states.
Each state was directed to act independently to
determine its own metrics for re-opening (rate of
new infection, rate of hospitalization, rate of
death, etc.). Most states had shuttered schools
until the new school year in September.
However, the federal government did publish the
“Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience,” which
specified four phases to re-opening the
economy. Phases 1, 2, and 3 were designed to
take effect in areas experiencing recovery.
Phase 4, which corresponded to the beginning
of the new normal, called for all workers to
return to offices and all schools to re-open.
In three key ways, the business challenge to this
state-by-state, localized approach to recovery
and achieving the new normal will prove to be
significant for both regional and interstate
companies.
Opportunity inequality
Regional companies—restaurants, retail stores,
gyms—may discover that while their state is still in
lockdown, a neighboring state, or even county, is
open for business. This could lead to massive
opportunity inequality and unfair competition.
Operational roadblocks and inefficiency
Companies have long interstate and international
supply chains. A manufacturer may discover that
while its home state is open for business, another
state is still closed—along with its critical supplier.
So the plant must remain idle for lack of parts.
Marketing inequality
Companies in “open” states that sell large
products, such as manufacturers of motor vehicles
and other goods which can’t be delivered by a
package service, may be unable to sell into states
that are still closed.
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12. Recovery
In April, Oregon Governor Kate Brown,
Washington Governor Jay Inslee, & California
Governor Gavin Newsom announced a regional
framework for reopening their economies.
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13. New Normal
The period where COVID-
19 has become as
manageable as any other
infectious disease such as
HIV/AIDS or influenza.
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14. New Normal
The following sections provide
analysis of key business
operating areas in the post
pandemic, new normal period.
The New Employee
The New Healthcare
The New Finance
The New Human Resources
The New Supply Chains
The New Consumer
The New Privacy
The New Agility
The New Board of Directors
To thrive and not just survive in the new
normal, we will be required to go back and
look at the organization as it was initially
envisioned: a stack of capabilities
strategically designed to organize humans
in a manner that increases the
effectiveness of our collective productivity.
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15. New Normal / The New Employee
A hallmark of the COVID-19 business and
civic lockdown, which affected any
operation that involved more than a few
people gathering together in one place at a
time to complete a task, was the heavy
reliance on, and strengthening of, digital
communication and production.
Companies that provided digital products—
broadcasters, music streaming services,
news organizations—used remote workers
to deliver their products directly to
consumers. Companies that had internal
digital communications relied on them to
carry on operations.
Internally, companies that were forced to
accelerate remote work and found it to be
effective will be inclined to re-examine whether
some or all of the remote work structure should
be retained. In the post-pandemic era, issues that
need to be addressed include:
IT departments need to determine if their
company’s system has the capacity to handle
a high number of remote employees, and to
increase capacity as necessary.
With more workers working from their own
remote workstations, malicious hacking will
become easier. Network security measures
will become more complex and require more
resources.
Companies will need to mandate that
employees who are working remotely keep
track of their time, and document what they
are doing while they are working from home
or elsewhere outside the office.
Remote employees may resist this, and
demand to be judged purely on their
delivered work product.
HR will need to monitor the psychological
effects of long-term remote work on
employees. How does isolation from co-
workers affect employee engagement? Are
at-home workers able to stay focused
outside of the “you-are-now-at-work” vibe of
an office?
Every knowledge worker will
be part remote worker. The
ability of someone’s home to
accommodate remote work
will be an input to HR hiring
decisions.
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16. New Normal
The New Employee
Pre-pandemic
employee
engagement best
practices may no
longer be effective.
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17. New Normal / The New Healthcare
“The federal government says ‘States, you need
to go find your supply chain,’ and then the
federal government ends up buying from that
supply chain.” Forbes called it “a form of federal
and private industry price gouging in a time
when cooperation is paramount.”
The result of this lack of coherence—which likely
cost lives—will be that the idea of a single-payer
nationalized healthcare system will come roaring
to the forefront. Particularly if Democrats gain
control of the White House and even the
Senate, nationalized healthcare, which most
other industrialized nations have, will be front
and center in the national debate.
What would this mean for employers? In a
rational world, employers should be glad to get
out of the business of paying for their
employees’ health insurance. As Mark Dudzic,
National Coordinator of the Labor Campaign for
Single Payer wrote, “Public
employers should be a natural supporter of
single payer. They don’t have the profit-driven
reasons to maintain support for a system of
private insurance. They could save trillions if
they were relieved of obligations to provide
continuing private insurance coverage for retired
and active employees.”
It’s likely that in the post-pandemic phase, the
healthcare system previously in place in the
United States—a combination of private insurers,
employer-provided coverage, and Medicare for
retirees—will have been found lacking.
In the middle of the pandemic, it became
somewhat clear that the absence of a federal
effort to formulate and execute the nation’s
response led to a wider and deeper penetration of
COVID-19 than was necessary.
For example, governors of states found
themselves bidding against other states and even
the federal government for badly needed supplies.
Kentucky governor Andy Beshear reported that
his state bid to get protective equipment, only to
lose out to the Federal Emergency Management
Agency. “It is a challenge,” he said.
Pre-Pandemic, half of employed
Americans made job decisions
such as whether to switch jobs
or retain a position based
largely on their health insurance
options.
2019, TransAmerica Center for Health Studies.
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18. New Normal
The New Healthcare
Healthcare coverage
informs job decisions
for 50% of Americans.
2019, TransAmerica Center for Health Studies.
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19. New Normal / The New Finance
and with loss reserves totaling about $556 billion.
Analysts estimated that pandemic claims could
drain this industry surplus, leaving few funds left
to pay other claims—particularly during hurricane
season, which runs from June 1 through
November 30,
and which typically features as many as
four named, severe storms hitting the
United States.
How about the one thing every borrower wants to
know about—interest rates? After the onset of the
coronavirus pandemic, US Treasury yields
dropped to new all-time lows, reflecting a flight
toward safety by investors, massive purchases of
Treasuries by the Federal Reserve, and the
prospect of a very deep recession. How durable
will this environment of super-low interest rates
be?
Some analysts assert that post-pandemic record-
setting fiscal deficits, concerns about debt
sustainability, and higher inflation will push
nominal and real interest rates back up to, and
perhaps even above, pre-pandemic
levels. Others say that long after the pandemic
has passed, the combination of a large private
sector saving glut and nominal yield curve control
by central banks will keep interest rates low.
The COVID-19 pandemic hit nearly every
business sector hard. The Small Business
Administration lists approximately 30 million
small businesses operating within the United
States, collectively employing almost 59 million
people. Analysts predict that up to half of them
may go bankrupt as a result of the pandemic.
Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah
Weinswig predicted there could be more than
15,000 retail store closures announced by
retailers in 2020. The apparel sector is expected
to be hit especially hard. Businesses without a
strong digital presence or alternative ways of
operating will be the most endangered.
Going into the pandemic, property & casualty
insurers (P&C) had robust balance sheets with
capital and surplus totaling an estimated $860
billion at year-end 2019
The alternative is for governments
to use their budgets, but the
difference between the current
crisis and past ones is the
enormous scale of financing
needed to roll over working capital
loans for an extended period.
International Monetary Fund
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20. New Normal
The New Finance
The levels of global
risk and uncertainty
will force more capital
to run for cover.
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21. New Normal / The New Human Resources
Enforce sensible social distancing protocols.
Carefully weigh non-essential business travel.
Use video conferencing whenever possible.
HR leaders must remain abreast of regulations by
the EEOC and other agencies. ADA-covered
employers may ask employees if they are
experiencing symptoms of the pandemic virus.
Employers have the right to non-invasively take the
temperature of each employee as they arrive for
work, and/or request a physician’s statement that the
employee is free from COVID-19.
For employees who have recovered from COVID-19,
employers can delay returning them to work until
they have passed a 14-day self-quarantine period
without exhibiting symptoms. Employers may require
a doctor’s release or a documented negative COVID-
19 test.
As we look toward life in the new normal, best
practices in human resources will evolve. This
includes assessing business operations with
existing manpower, bringing employees back to
work, replacing deceased employees, and
ensuring a safe workplace.
The coronavirus will not disappear when the
pandemic ends. It will always be with us, and until
an effective vaccine is developed and deployed,
the risk of infection and illness remain.
Therefore all businesses in which human contact is
essential will need to adapt to new guidelines.
Continue to encourage remote work and
telework whenever possible and feasible with
business operations.
Continue to close common areas where
personnel are likely to congregate and
interact.
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Human Resources will be forced to
be both more human and
resourceful. Hiring managers will
be forced to answer questions
about the social distancing
infrastructure of an office, and “sick
leave” may have to be completely
redesigned.
Employers must maintain all information about
employee illness as a confidential medical
record in compliance with the ADA.
22. New Normal / The New Supply Chain
Companies will be acknowledging that reliance on
any single country or source is unwise, particularly
one that is geographically distant.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, told The Financial
Times, “I do believe there’s going to be a review
of supply chains at every company in the world.”
Consumer purchasing behavior may carry over
past the pandemic.
April 21st, 2020, New York Times covers patterns
left over from other crises.
Mr. Bozovic, the Sarajevo survivor, recalled, as a
metaphor for deeper changes, a street near his
home that was often targeted by snipers. He
avoided it during the war — and, to his surprise,
well after.
“I don’t think I walked that street for months,” he
said. “That lingers, that stays. And I’m sure it’s
going to be the same now.”
During the pre-pandemic period, industrial
corporations had become accustomed to just-in-
time supply chains that often had their source in a
foreign country—frequently China. The COVID-19
pandemic revealed the fragility of this system,
particularly with mission-critical or scarce
resources.
For example, as NationalInterest.org reported,
before the pandemic, China produced 40 percent
of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients
(API)—the key ingredients for many common
medicines such as antibiotics and painkillers.
Factory shutdowns in China triggered a drop in
API exports to India, the world’s largest
manufacturer of generic drugs. India then
restricted exports of API and medication to
Europe and the United States.
While deeper shifts are difficult to predict, he
added, one seemed obvious: “I think it will
profoundly change how we interact physically
with other people.”
Many of the behaviors in a crisis
(war or disease) have a lasting
effect months and in some cases
years past the end of a crisis. With
a resurgence of COVID-19
possible, consumers may continue
to purchase in bulk.
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23. New Normal
The New Supply Chain
Consumers may only
purchase in two
modalities: in bulk or
eager for immediate
delivery.
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24. New Normal / The New Consumer
stores. Retailers will invest in virtual salespeople
who can engage with shoppers, or virtual
experiences like in-store demonstrations that can
be viewed online.
During the pandemic, many consumers became
accustomed to stocking up on essentials that they
normally would have bought just in time. Over
time, these consumers may either continue with
their new habit of stockpiling, or become
exuberantly extravagant. Retailers need to
prepare for both.
contact tracing saved lives will lead to a shift to a
greater acceptance of less personal privacy. Consumers
who championed contact tracing as a powerful tool for
good will feel vindicated, while those who chafed at any
suggestion that their movements were anybody’s
business but their own may be more tolerant of
government surveillance.
Of course, a minority will have an equal and opposite
reaction. They will regard the entire pandemic as a
government plot to deprive them of their rights, and will
resist with even more vigor the intrusions of Big Data
into their lives.
The new normal, with its expansion of personal data
collection, will heighten the importance of consumer
data rights and ownership. It will provide a powerful
argument for the idea of the 31st Human Right, which
asserts that a consumer’s human data is their personal
property. “Human data” means any data that is created
by a person’s existence (genetic and health data) and
their activities (where they live, what they buy).
As the American Marketing Association pointed
out, in the retail space, online experiences are
becoming ubiquitous. In 2020, ecommerce was
already 15% of total retail and was expected to
climb to 30% by 2025. With consumers having
ecommerce as one of their only options for retail
shopping for many months, we should expect
that 30% mark to be hit much earlier.
Grocery delivery platforms such as Instacart,
Walmart Grocery and Shipt saw dramatic spikes
in sales, driven primarily by new housebound
customers who tried online grocery shopping for
the first time.
Analysts believe that while consumers will return
to stores, malls, and social gathering places, the
crisis will have made retailers look for more
powerful ways to deliver virtual experiences, and
to interact with shoppers online, rather than
focusing primarily on attracting bodies into their
The New Privacy
As we have seen in the human resources
section, employees in the age of COVID-19—
which will be with us for years to come—will be
accustomed to having their personal health
come under the scrutiny of their employer.
There can be no doubt that for most Americans,
the recognition that
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25. New Normal
The New Privacy
Privacy may die
completely or be
completely
transformed.
Whatever we had is
no longer here.
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26. New Normal / The New Agility
tracing that was both fast and accurate. As
McKinsey reported, to achieve this goal the
government partnered with private companies to
launch a COVID-19 data platform with a digital
surveillance system that consolidated
information from 27 public and private
organizations. The system reduced contact-
tracing time from 24 hours in early February to
less than ten minutes by late March.
The new system produced robust information,
which the government acted upon. This type of
agility demonstrated by governments will be
expected from corporations as well.
The pandemic of 2020 proved that organizations
that could quickly adapt to the pandemic and the
new normal that followed were the ones that
survived and even thrived. In contrast, those
organizations that were stuck with one rigid
business model and were unwilling or unable to
change quickly succumbed.
The pandemic also proved that in times of
crisis—which for any company could be anytime
in a fast-moving economy—an organization’s
leadership and its team
need to get it right the first time. Winners make
fast decisions and hit the bull’s eye every time.
Losers dither and accept mediocre results.
In the new normal, never before has the need
for accurate and timely data been greater. For
example, as the pandemic swept across the
globe, the government of South Korea knew it
needed to do contact
The New Board/Directors
their tables. During “normal” times, it might have seemed
sufficient to have a pliable, detached board that listened
politely to the CEO’s presentation, asked a few
inoffensive questions, and then voted approval. The
COVID-19 pandemic has shown that massive disruption
can occur without warning, from a source that no one
expected. Nothing can be taken for granted. The board of
any organization has the solemn responsibility to be
rigorous and meticulous in its oversight of the chief
executive, and to steer the organization towards both
long-term goals and short-term results.
If the fundamental way a company does business must
be altered to meet a crisis, the board members, both
consumedly and collectively, need to act with heightened
responsibility and accuracy. This requires board
members who can do this when called upon. It’s a tricky
balance—no board needs “bomb throwers” who
themselves are disruptive, while at the other extreme no
board needs “seat warmers” who just show up because it
looks good on their resume. Every board needs people
who are alert, engaged, willing to question the status
quo, and willing to “move fast but don’t break things.”
As business enters the new normal, one of the
takeaways will be that organizational agility—
which means survival during massive
disruption—must extend to the boardroom.
CEOs and board chairs need to carefully
consider the consumers seated at
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27. New Normal
The New Board of Directors
You can now expect
reputational egg on
your face if a
company you direct
fails.
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28. The Great Pivots
Because of COVID-19, almost half of the
companies in the world would have pivoted at
least once in 2020.
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29. The Great Pivots
There is a web of fault lines
that are concurrently under
sudden duress ranging from
consumer behavior, to
supply chains and to board
composition.
drastically from one economic period to another.
For example, during the agricultural age, the family
was the organizing principle of the organizational
unit, children were assets, and parenting had a
referent power that anchored the economic
fortitude of the family.
Organizations change and require that we look at
them differently to both predict and steer the
change, particularly during concurrent macro-
economic and macro-social reform. Today, the
concurrency of changes in disciplines such as
employment, healthcare, finance, human
resources, consumer behavior, board leadership
and agility signal a macro-economic macro-social
reform ahead. What makes this time different is the
number of organizational disciplines that are under
both transformation and duress across most
industries and geographies in such a sharply
accelerated timeframe.
We must look at the organizational stack from a
new lens, there is just too much concurrent
change, most of which we have never seen.
To thrive and not just survive, we are required to
go back to basics and look at the organization as
a set of principles that organize humans in a
manner that increases the effectiveness of our
collective productivity. In startups, we call this a
pivot.
In examining the roots of human incorporation,
we see that we organized in groups to increase
our independence from kin as well as to augment
the effectiveness of our productivity. The
organizing principles that defined our
organizations changed
In the wake of the pandemic, capitalism, commerce,
and consumerism will not go away; they will evolve.
Executives leading organizations seeking to thrive in
the new normal will benefit from a critical
examination of the pre-pandemic, peak pandemic,
recovery, and post-pandemic versions of
organizations through a new lens. The framework
below describes a new lens of the “organizational
stack” and enables us to compare the delta in the
priorities and realities of organizations between the
four pandemic-driven periods of organizational
transformation mentioned above.
This lens highlights how organizations are structured
into layers. It is neither perfect nor complete, but it is
an effective way to look at the layers of an
organization, derive how they interact to create
value, and decide where one should focus.
The following lens for looking at the organizational
stack lists the 30 essential components and
operational areas of an organization.
The Organizational Stack
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30. The Organizational Stack
The definition of
the layers of an
organization are more
important that the existence
or placement of the layer in
the stack.
The Great Pivots
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31. Vision Your statements about the future you are seeking to bring to life for you community.01
Mission
The reason investors and employees choose to invest capital and their careers into your
company over any other.02
Values
The strength of the collective organization to engage or avoid something that prioritizes
values over value.03
Brand
The time and place when and where you are the first organization a customer or partner
thinks about when they have a specific need.04
Trust
The leap of faith customers and partners are willing take for you in the absence of
enough evidence to take said leap of faith.05
Marketing
The statements about your products, services, or other customer experiences made in
order to attract non-organic customers.06
Transparency
The ability to share key information about your organization with others to demonstrate
that you are keeping true to the values you espouse.07
Servicing
The ability to keep the promises of your product or service after sales, delivery and the
receipt of payments are over.10
Quality
The capability to meet the expectations of the customer set by sales and marketing, or
by the norms of your industry or market segment.11
Cash flow
The ability to balance the flow of finances of the organization for optimal use of capital to
generate shareholder return with the need for sustainability.12
Experience
A layer of polish on top of a product or services that either compensates for a
gap/weakness or creates a differentiation with story.08
Engagement
Capability to capture customers and partners attention outside of core moments such as
sales, marketing, delivery, and servicing.09
Partners
Other organizations who you trade value, products and services with, in various markets
and customer segments, in a formation of reflective credibility.13
Delivery
The ability to get your products and services to customers within boundaries set during
purchasing, or by the norms of your industry or market segment.14
Pricing
Tiers of value assigned to various configurations of products or services across different
customer segments and geographies.15
Sales
The capability to engage customers and partners into a process that culminates in the
exchange of different forms of value for a profit.16
Storage Capacity to store physical, intellectual and digital assets.22
Network Connectivity to transact, communicate, and operate.23
Operations
Ability to use human capital to fill in gaps that cannot be automated, or to handle
exceptions that are too complex or nuanced for automation.20
Information
Technology
Ability to process and manage information about a business, customers, and partner
ecosystem with quality of information as the highest requirement.21
Scalability
Ability to increase or decrease supply and demand to optimize cashflow and supply
chains of physical and digital assets.18
Business
Support
Ancillary functions that serve as both the lubrication and glue to the core functions within
an organization or a partner ecosystem.19
Products
The capability that you deliver to customers and partners in exchange for revenue or
other forms of value.17
Security Protection of physical, intellectual and digital assets.24
Real Estate Physical places to congregate, operate and sell or trade.25
Leadership Executive team for execution and board of directors for governance.26
Talent Ability to attract, improve and retain talent networks.27
Legal
Legal framework to operate with multiple entities in multiple regions and the guidance
needed to operate within the boundaries of a regulatory jurisdiction.28
Credit Ability to leverage assets to underwrite borrowed capital.29
Capital Cash investments, or cash reserves.30
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32. The Great Pivots
The Pivots in CEO Focus from
One Period to Another
This data has been gleaned from our conversations with leaders
globally, with a strong skew towards American businesses.
The Likert scale shows the four possible responses to each
question about the functional layer of an organization. Each answer
indicates a level of priority the leader gave to that functional layer at
that time of writing of this playbook.
The shifts in color make it easy to spot the shifts in priorities.
0 Zero priority – these are on autopilot
1 Low priority – these I track that they are done
2 Mid-priority – these I focus on being done well
3 High priority – these I obsess about
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Pre-pandemic
Focus Areas
Peak-pandemic
Pivot Areas
Recovery
Pivot Areas
New Normal
Pivot Areas
33. The Great Pivots
Pre-Pandemic Focus
As the pandemic tightened its grip on the
economy, you can see a clear shift to “survival
mode.” The areas of critical importance
become these five: cash flow, network,
leadership, credit, and capital. They demand
attention and action. Areas of least concern—
those placed on autopilot—included vision,
mission, values, brand, transparency, quality,
partners, pricing, and real estate.
In the pre-pandemic period, the areas of highest
priority (green) were marketing, engagement,
experience, and servicing. These are all areas
that you would expect to be important during a
healthy economy. The areas of least importance
(red) were vision, values, network, and security.
These areas were on “autopilot” and not
considered vulnerable to disruption.
As the pandemic subsides—but companies are still not out of the
woods—the focus of attention stays on cash flow. But as the market
returns, new areas that demand action include delivery, sales,
products, scalability, and operations. These are activities that
generate sales and therefore revenues.
We see no areas left on autopilot (red). While we see some areas
that are less urgent—values, quality, security, legal, IT, and
storage—every aspect of the organization’s operations deserves
scrutiny. Nothing is taken for granted.
Peak-Pandemic Pivot Recovery Pivot
I was a digital Chief
Executive Officer
I’m now a wartime
Chief Executive
Officer
I’m now a transformational
Chief Executive
Officer
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34. The New Organizational Stack
From small business to
Fortune 500, most
CEOs are racing to
become
transformational CEOs.
The Great Pivots
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35. The Great Pivots
New Normal Pivot
In the post-pandemic new normal, organizations take a hard look at
their core business models. We see the areas of focus shift to
vision, values, trust, transparency, delivery, and capital. Other
related areas that demand attention include mission, brand,
experience, and leadership. The only area on autopilot will be real
estate.
This means that companies are stepping back and asking, “Is the
new normal substantially different from the last normal? Do we
need to question our business model? Has there been permanent
disruption to which we need to adjust?”
A massive disruption such as the COVID-19 pandemic is painful for
everyone. People lose their jobs, their livelihoods, and even their
lives. It’s not a happy time, and to get through it requires sacrifice
and teamwork. But on the other side, life will go on. Many
companies will succumb, while others may emerge stronger than
ever. Many organizations across most geographies pivoting
concurrently to focus on vision, values, trust, and transparency may
be one of the greatest macro-structural changes in the
organizational stack of all time.
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Pre-pandemic
Focus Areas
Peak-pandemic
Pivot Areas
Recovery
Pivot Areas
New Normal
Pivot Areas
37. The Greatest Restart
There will be an abrupt
concurrent “re-founding” of
businesses globally.
With the high concurrency of macro-economic
and macro-social elements changing across
most industries and geographies in such an
unprecedentedly short time, companies are
forced to rethink every layer of the
organizational stack.
Focus on layers such as trust, transparency and
values in the post-pandemic new normal signal
a collective re-founding. In some ways, every
company is now part startup-company, and
every CEO is now part startup-CEO.
To thrive in the new normal and not just survive,
CEOs are asking themselves, “How can we be
different?” During the pre-pandemic period most
companies already had mature information
technology, many companies were already on a
meaningful
digital journey and some companies had already
made intentional investments into cognitive
capabilities. Will companies continue to
differentiate with information technology, digital
and/or cognitive? Or, will there be something
new? We see a nuance that suggests that there
will be varying amounts of differentiation to
come in the new normal, from more investments
in information technology, digital or cognitive,
with cognitive investments presenting the most
opportunity to help an organization differentiate.
companies would have metaphorically refueled, installed
new tires, and made a few mechanical adjustments
during recovery. As the recovery concludes with the
green flag flying and the pace car slows down and exits
the racetrack, could a company win with more
investments in information technology, digital or cognitive
capabilities?
With information technology, the competitive well is dry as
every company is already an information technology
company, and hence every CEO has already graduated
at being an information technology CEO. With digital, the
competitive edge is dull as every company is already on
the journey to becoming a digital company, with this
journey having been accelerated by the demands of the
lockdown, and every CEO needing to be a digital CEO is
already on that path.
What is left is cognitive, that is, artificial intelligence.
Market dynamics suggest that CEOs will need to re-found
their companies by leveraging areas where there is a
green field of differentiation left to cover. The manority of
the green field of opportunities left to differentiate and win
are in artificial intelligence.
The Pace Car Effect
As a metaphor, the COVID-19 lockdown is
similar to an economic racetrack, with the pace
car out in front of all of the competitors, and the
caution flag flying. Countries, markets and
organizations will restart out of the great
lockdown “bumper to bumper.” The distance
between competitors would be minimal, and
most
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38. The Greatest Restart
The Cognitive Engine
In the new normal, every company will race to
become a cognitive company - the cognitive
enterprise, as IBM describes it.
Thriving in cognitive requires data. Data is the
fuel for all artificial intelligence (AI), whether it is
simple AI such as Apple’s Siri, or semi-
sophisticated AI such as Microsoft’s Cortana.
Data fuels artificial
intelligence, and the
effectiveness of the fueling
relies on the quality of the
data as well as associated
data processing rights.
Artificial intelligence is only as valuable as the
quality of the data at its core. Just as high
performing race cars require premium fuel,
artificial intelligence requires premium quality
data.
The purpose of cognitive computing is to
provide analytics that drive decision making
across the organizational stack. In order for
decision makers to trust the analytics, they
must be able to trust the quality of the data
upon which it is based.
Factors contributing to the level of quality
include the original source of the data, as well
as how and by whom it has been processed,
brokered and traded across a data supply
chain.
Data rights are the legal permissions, that a data
processing company has, to process data for certain
permitted uses, restricted uses and exceptions in certain
jurisdictions for certain durations. Data rights can vary in
nature based on the entities that generate, transact, and
process the data.
For example, if a fitness device collects consumer data,
the consumer and the fitness device are both data
generating entities.
The company that builds the fitness device and manages
the companion mobile App for the fitness device (Device
Company A) is the data collector. If Device Company A
sells the consumer’s fitness tracking data to Data Broker
B, both Device Company A and Data Broker B are
transacting entities. And, if Data Broker B were to sell the
consumer’s fitness data to Healthcare Company C, the
healthcare company is a consuming entity.
Data Quality Data Rights
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39. The Greatest Restart
Data Rights (cont’d)
The opportunities that can help an
organization power artificial intelligence are
in improving the “data rights ratio” – that is,
the percentage of 1st party data versus 2nd
and 3rd.
1st party data is data you collected yourself,
while 2nd and 3rd party data is procured
from Data Collectors and/or Data Brokers.
For example, if Healthcare Company C
collects data from consumers directly, that
data is likely governed under 1st party data
processing rights. Data with 1st party data
processing rights powers artificial
intelligence more effectively than data with
2nd or 3rd party data processing rights
because 1st party data is usually better
quality, and the range and extent of allowed
processing activities under 1st party data
processing rights are wider and deeper.
If Healthcare Company C purchases data from
Device Company A to power artificial intelligence,
that data would come with 2nd party data
processing rights. The data quality is likely lower
than 1st party data, and the processing rights
likely narrower and shallower.
Alternatively, and this was predominantly the
case in the pre-pandemic period, Healthcare
Company C purchases data from Data Broker B
with 3rd party data processing rights attached,
and Data Broker B purchases data from Device
Company A with 2nd party data rights. As you
would imagine, the 3rd party data quality is lower
than the 2nd party and 1st party data quality, and
the data processing rights are significantly
narrower and shallower, generating the potential
for significant liability in the data processing
activities related to data privacy regulations such
as GDPR and CCPA.
The Data Rights Supply Chain
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40. The Data-Driven CEO
Every CEO must
differentiate by
preparing to
restart after multiple
pivots, as a data-
driven CEO.
The Greatest Restart
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41. The Greatest Restart
The Data-Driven CEO
The false signal is that for every
company to become a cognitive
company to differentiate in the
new normal, every CEO must
become a cognitive CEO.
Yes, and no.
The nuance we see is that every CEO must
become a data CEO, and every company must
become a data company.
More specifically, every company must move to
become more of a 1st party data company, and
less of a 3rd party data company. The winning
companies in the new normal that seek to
differentiate enough to thrive will have to
become cognitive companies that power
artificial
intelligence with a higher 1st party to 3rd party data
processing rights ratio. Every company will race to
become a 1st party data company.
How does one do that? How does one convince
consumers to give an organization 1st party data
processing rights, to fuel powerful artificial
intelligence?
Leaders believe this can be done with trust,
transparency, and an alignment of values.
Consumers must trust an organization enough to
agree to share their personal data. To maintain the
trust, consumers must be given transparency as to
what will be done with their data, where, by whom,
for what reason and for how long. Most critically,
the organization’s values must align with the values
of the consumers with whom they seek to cultivate
trust and transparency to engage in a 1st party
data processing relationship.
While most CEOs and executives involved
in the shaping of our point of view now recognize this
competitive green field to become a 1st party data
processing company, many had also recognized the
green field before COVID-19.
What is new now, is that the heightened requirement in
the post-pandemic new normal to differentiate
significantly from the pack as everyone restarts the
economic race virtually bumper to bumper, is that the
only way out is more 1st party data and less 3rd party
data fueling investments in cognitive capabilities such
as artificial intelligence. Improve the 1st party to 3rd
party data rights ratio, and win.
That is the play.
It was on our 2025 plans anyway.
We just need it in 2021 now.
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42. The Greatest Restart
Cultivate the trust & transparency with
consumers required to improve your 1st party
to 3rd party data processing rights ratio. That
is the play.
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‘‘
43. About The Authors
Richie Etwaru
Mr. Etwaru has operated in multiple industries and geographies. He invented and
launched three product categories over the last two decades. These include
reputational identity monitoring in the transportation industry as Chief Information
Officer at License Monitor, dynamically generated reports in financial services as
Vice President at Barclays, and orchestrated customer engagement in
healthcare as Chief Digital Officer of IQVIA.
As founder and Chief Executive Officer of Hu-manity.co, Mr. Etwaru is known for
introducing the 31st Human Right - “everyone has the right to legal ownership of
their inherent human data as property.” He is driven to reshape the world by
creating a new data economy that thrives on a fair-trade data rights between
consumers and organizations.
Mr. Etwaru has been featured in NPR, The Wall Street Journal, The New York
Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, Computer World, Forbes,
VentureBeat, WIRED, and has appeared on television stations globally. He has
delivered three TEDx talks, authored three books, holds international patents,
and currently lives in Sparta, New Jersey in the United States of America.
Shaleen (Sheli) Gupta
Mr. Gupta’s most successful venture exit to date is Software Associates
International (SAI), which he co-founded in 1994 as a 2-person
basement-based consulting firm. SAI grew to a highly successful, 180
person sales and marketing software company servicing the US
pharmaceutical industry, including major clients such as Johnson &
Johnson, Roche, Abbott Labs, and Eli Lilly.
Other venture exits include Semantelli, a social media monitoring
company that used proprietary healthcare focused software, which was
acquired by a global healthcare company.
Mr. Gupta was born in Nairobi, Kenya and has travelled extensively as a
result of his passion for travel and exploring new cultures. He enjoys
golf, is fluent in English & Punjabi, and a little rusty in French, Spanish &
Swahili. He completed his secondary education as a boarding student at
Kimbolton School, Cambridgeshire UK, followed by his B.Sc. in
Computer & Electronic Engineering at King’s College, University of
London. He is now based in Kimbolton, England.
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44. Hu-manity.co
About Us
Hu-manity.co’s software, powered by artificial
intelligence, discovers, understands, and compares
data processing rights that govern the capture and
trade of data between multiple parties in a data
supply chain. Organizations use Hu-manity.co’s
software to cultivate the trust and transparency
required to process consumer data with more 1st
party data processing rights than their competition.
The company acquired BetterPath, a Natural
Language Understanding company, in Q2 2019,
and Digital Factory, a company processing the
cookie consent data rights for for over 1 million
websites globally, in Q1 2020.
WE’VE GOT
DATA RIGHTS
COVERED
Mission & Vision
We see a world where trust, transparency and
authenticity in data rights management are core
values in the post-digital and post-COVID-19
version of commerce between individuals and
institutions.
We are on a mission to use technological
inventions, and leading distribution channel
partners, to bring this vision to life.
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