Calamander\'s global economic outlook Q1 2011

1. Snow White
Money, Oil & Politics
Global Economic Outlook Q1, 2011
Roman Scott
Managing Director, Calamander Capital
Economic Spokesman
British Chamber of Commerce Singapore
Sponsored by
20th January 2011
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Theatre, Tanglin Club

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3. The Canary in the Coal Mine
Advanced Economies GDP Growth Singapore GDP Growth
(% change y-o-y) (% change y-o-y)
5 16
4 14
12
3 2.4%
10
2
8
1
6
0
4
4.0%
-1
2
-2
0
-3 -2
-4 -4
2010F
2011F
1991
1998
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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4. The Canary in the Coal Mine
% (y-o-y) Investment Spend % (y-o-y) Industrial Production
20 80
16
60
12
8 40
4 20
0 0
-4 -20
-8 -40
-12
Jan-09
Mar-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Sep-10
May-09
May-10
Nov-10
Nov-08
Nov-09
Jul-09
Jul-10
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
% (y-o-y) Exports % (y-o-y)
Financial Services
24
18 22
12 18
14
6 10
0 6
2
-6 -2
-6
-12 -10
2006
2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2010
1Q-09
4Q-09
1Q-08
2Q-08
3Q-08
4Q-08
2Q-09
3Q-09
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5. Global Economy
World GDP FY 2011 Forecast
Annual change (%) 4.22% (IMF)
6 3.3% (World Bank & HSBC)
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1990
1991
2001
2002
2003
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2011F
Source: IMF
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6. OECD Leading Economic Indicators
Global leading indicators
12-month rate of change of the trend restored Composite Leading Indicators
30
25
20
15
11.5%
10
5 2.7%
0 1.3%
-0.6%
-5
-3.6%
-10
-15
Nov-06
Nov-00
Nov-01
Nov-02
Nov-03
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
UK US China Euro area OECD Total
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7. 6
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8. US KPIs
+0.6%
(m-o-m)
+2.6% +0.5%
-3.3% (q-o-q) (m-o-m)
Dec’10 -0.4%
(m-o-m) to for Q3’10
+3.9% Dec10 led to +6.9% (m-o-m)
Dec’10
(q-o-q) (y-o-y), largest
(Conference to 9.4%
Q3’10
Board Index) since 1999 (Dec’10) 0.25%
Consumer Price
GDP Fed Fund Rate
Index
Consumer Consumer Unemployment
Retail Sales
Expenditure Confidence Rate
+0.7% +3.2% to
(m-o-m) +26% to +0.7% to 57pts USD 127.2 Bn
Nov’10 for USD 1.64 Tn (m-o-m) in +4.9% +0.2% +1.5% or -3.4%
manufacturing (y-o-y) Dec’10 (m-o-m) (m-o-m) (m-o-m) in of GDP 2010
orders in Q3’10 (ISM PMI) Oct’10 Nov’10 Dec10 Q3’10
Business Corporate Business Leading Current Account
Manufacturing Inventories
Spending Earnings Confidence Economic Index Deficit
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9. Retail Sales
+15% +5.4% +3.2%
+11.8 % (m-o-m) (y-o-y)
(y-o-y) (y-o-y) Dec’10 Dec’10
Dec’10 Dec’10
+10.4 %
+8.4 % +5 %
(y-o-y)
(y-o-y)
+1.5 %
Dec’10 (m-o-m) (y-o-y)
Dec’10 Dec’10 Dec’10
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10. Tech
Profit Growth in Q4’10
+71%
(y-o-y) to
USD 6 Bn
+48%
(y-o-y) to
USD 3.4 Bn
+9%
(y-o-y) to
USD 5.3 Bn
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11. Manufacturing – Sales Growth
574 planes sold after cancellation
7.5% (y-o-y) worth of USD 74 Bn in 2010
to 224,185 units
in Dec’10
510 deliveries
USD 39.9 Bn of total revenue
6.7% (y-o-y)
to 190,976 units
530 planes sold after cancellations
worth of USD 49 Bn.
in Dec’10
462 deliveries
16% (y-o-y)
to 100,702 units 61 orders worth of GBP 3.2 Bn
in Dec’10 of its Trent 900 engines
with British Airways
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12. Exports
Export Volume Growth
% change (y-o-y)
30 29
25
24
20 18
16
15
12
9 11
10 8
9 6
5
4 5 6
0 5
1
-9
-5 -3
-10
-10
-11
-15
-20 -18
2010F
2011F
2009
2007
2008
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13. 12
% of Disposable Income
80
90
100
110
130
120
Source: US BEA
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
US Household Debt
1999
2000
2001
2002
US Household Debt
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
118%
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2010
% of Disposable Income
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
US Personal Savings Rate
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
6%
2010

14. Auto Industry Signals the ‘The New Normal’
No. of new car sales (in mil)
No. of new car sales (in mil)
20 18 mil
19
16
17
12
15
13 11.6 mil 8
4
11
9 0
2010
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2000
2005
2010
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
No. of new car sales (in mil) No. of new car sales (in mil)
4 3.0
3.8
3.6 2.5
3.4
3.2 2.0
3 2.9 mil 2 mil
2.8 1.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2002
2009
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
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15. Monthly Number of Housing Units
14
(in thousands)
100
150
200
250
0
50
Nov-63
Housing
Nov-64
Nov-65
Nov-66
Nov-67
Nov-68
Nov-69
Nov-70
Nov-71
Nov-72
Nov-73
Nov-74
Nov-75
Nov-76
Nov-77
Nov-78
Nov-79
Housing Sales
Nov-80
Nov-81
Nov-82
Nov-83
Nov-84
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Nov-85
Nov-86
Nov-87
Nov-88
Nov-89
Nov-90
Housing Starts
Nov-91
Nov-92
Nov-93
Nov-94
Nov-95
Nov-96
Nov-97
Nov-98
Nov-99
Nov-00
Nov-01
Nov-02
Nov-03
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Building Permits
Nov-09
Nov-10
Avg: 119
Avg: 126
Avg: 57
41
21
40
Nov-10

16. US politics
15
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17. EU KPIs
1.9% (Q3’10) -0.3% (Q4’09) 3.9% (Q3’10) 1.1% (Q3’10) 0.2% (Q3’10)
GDP:
1.0% 0.64% 0.64% 0.72% 0.5%
I:
2.2% (Dec’10) 1.6% (Mar’10) 5.2% (Oct’10) 1.9% (Dec’10) 2.3% (Nov’10)
CPI:
-1.9% (Oct’10) 7.5% (Dec’10) -3.5% (Oct’10) -4.6% (Oct’10)
C/A balance (% of GDP): -0.5% (Oct’10)
9.8% (Nov’10) 10.1% (Feb’10) 6.7% (Oct’10) 8.6% (Oct’10) 20.6% (Nov’10)
Unemployment:
+3.3% to
+0.3% -0.5% +6.9% +1.4% +0.1% -15% to -0.8 % 10.1%
57.1pts
(q-o-q) (m-o-m) (y-o-y) (m-o-m) (q-o-q) -11 pts (m-o-m) (m-o-m)
(m-o-m)
Q3’10 Nov’10 Oct’10 Nov’10 Q3’10 Dec’10 Nov’10 Oct’10
Dec’10
Un-
Investment Corporate Industrial Manufacturi Business Consumer Consumer
Retail Sales employment
Spending Earnings Production ng Confidence Expenditure Confidence
Rate
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18. PIGS
10-year Government Bonds Spread Over Bunds
Basis points
1040
940
840
831
740
640
582
540
440
384
340
240
228
140
40
May-09
May-10
Nov-09
Nov-10
Jul-09
Jul-10
Sep-09
Sep-10
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jan-11
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19. UK KPIs
+3.7% (y-o-y)
0.7% (Q4’10) or 1.0% (m-o-m)
lower than Dec’10
+18% +0.1%
-0.4% +0.7% 0.8% (Q3’10)
to 53 pts (q-o-q)
(q-o-q) (m-o-m) to 7.9%
(m-o-m)
Q4’10 Dec’10 Dec’10
Dec’10 0.5%
Consumer Price Key Policy
GDP
Index Interest Rate
Consumer Consumer Unemployment
Retail Sales
Expenditure Confidence Rate
+85%
to GBP 9.6 Bn
+11.9% +11.6% +1.4% to -15.7% +19.7% -2.6% of
(q-o-q) 58.3pts (q-o-q) + GBP 0.3 Bn (m-o-m) in GDP 2010
(y-o-y)
Q2’10 (m-o-m) 3Q’10 Q4’10 Dec10 (Q3’10)
Q3’10
Dec’10
Business Corporate Business Leading Current Account
Manufacturing Inventories
Spending Earnings Confidence Economic Index Deficit
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20. UK Austerity
UK Total GDP 2010 Government Real Spending
Annual Growth
Health % change (y-o-y)
8% 9 8.7
Pensions 8.2
8% 7.8
8 8.2 8
7 6.8
Welfare
6.3
7% 6 6.4
5.9
Education 5
Private
Spending 6%
4
55%
3.4
Remainder 3 3.1 3.1
3
16%
2
1.6
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
TOTAL UK GDP 2010
USD 2,352 Bn
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21. Emerging Markets Asia
China/India AGEs Canarys Asean-3 References
Population
10% 6%
1.7%
7%
6.1% GDP GDP
2010 62 Mil 2010
235 Mil
1,341 Bn GDP GDP GDP 6.8%
2010 49 Mil 2010 7 Mil 2010
14.8% GDP
88 Mil 2010
9.6% 8%
9.5%
7%
GDP GDP GDP
1,216 Bn GDP GDP
20 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 68 Mil 2010 20 Mil 2010
2010 23 Mil 2010 5 Mil 2010

22. My worry - Asian inflation…the watchlist
% change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y)
6 5.9 12 11 10.2
6.5%
5
2.75% 11
10.9
11.8 10
4 4.8 (lending 5.81%) 9
3.3 10
8
3 9
6.4 7 6.4
2 8
8.3 6
1 -0.7 7 5% 5
4.8
0 5.1
6 4
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2010F
2007
2008
2009
-1
2007
2008
2009
2010F
% change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y)
26 6 5.5
23 7 6.6
22 5 2.25% 6
18
4 5 0.44%
14 8.3
9% 3 2.2 3.3
4
2.1 2.8
3
9.9 2
2 0.6
10 1
7.1 1
-0.8
6 9 0 0
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2010F
2011F
2007
2008
2009
-1
2007
2008
2009
2010F
Inflation
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Policy rate

23. 22
20
40
50
60
70
80
30
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07 USD per barrel
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
Inflation part 2……Oil
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Oil Price
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
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Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
20 Jan 2011
Oil Price:
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
100 USD/Barrel
Nov-10
Dec-10
USD 72 Bn
USD 70 Bn
USD 27 Bn
USD 790 Bn
34 Other Rich Countries
Increase in Imported Bill in 2010

24. Bonds: Hasta La Vista, Baby!
Government Securities’ Yield Curves
Yield (%) Yield (%) Yield (%)
5 5 5
4 4 4
3 3 3
2 2 2
1 1 1
0 0 0
5y
3m
6m
2y
3y
7y
12m
10y
30y
3y
3m
6m
2y
5y
7y
12m
10y
30y
12m
10y
30y
3y
3m
6m
2y
5y
7y
Dec'09
Maturity Maturity
Jan'11 Maturity
Period Period Period
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25. Equities: performance for 2010
World
(MSCI) (DJIA) (FTSE Euro (CAC 40) (SMI) (BOVESPA) (BSE) (KOSPI) (SET) (JSX) (CSEALL)
100)
World
Bond
(Citigroup) (SPTSX) (FTSE (DAX) (NIKKEI (RTS) (SSEA) (STI) (KLSE) (TAIEX) (All Ord.)
100) 225)
YTD (%)
From 31 Dec 2009 to 12-Jan-11
60
52
50 46
40 38
29 30
30
22 22 20
20 15
11 13 11
9 8 9 10
10 8 6
3
0
U .S.
UK
China (SSEA)
Rus s ia
Sri Lanka
France
Japan
Braz il
Euro
Taiwan
W orld Bond
G ermany
Swis s
Korea (Kos pi)
Malays ia (FTSE)
W orld (MSCI)
Thailand
India
Indones ia
Canada
Singapore
Aus tralia
-10
-9
-12 -11
-20
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24

26. USD
USD Against Major Currencies
Weighted Average of the Foreign Exchange Values of the
(Mar 1973 = 100) Calamander’s 1st warning
150 of USD decrease at
BritCham Sep’02
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Jan-76
Jan-86
Jan-93
Jan-00
Jan-10
Jan-73
Jan-74
Jan-75
Jan-77
Jan-78
Jan-79
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
Note: Nominal Major Currencies Index of USD against a basket of EUR, CAD, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, and SKR.
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27. Commodities 2010
Index
+74%
(Dec09 = 100)
220
Palladium
200 +80%
Iron Ore
180
+69% +66%
160
Rubber Silver
+38% +36%
140
Coal Uranium
120 +24%
Copper
100
+18%
80
Platinum
Jan-10
May-10
Dec-09
Feb-10
Dec-10
Aug-10
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
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