2. Climate Change
• Human activity leads to emission of gases
– Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide
• Gases alter the climate system
• Global temperature is increasing
• Likely adverse effects on
– human health
– biodiversity
– ecological productivity
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3. Regulatory Issues
• Emissions unavoidable by-product of economic activity
• Still large stocks of fossil fuels remaining
• Atmosphere is a ‘global commons’
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4. Likely Impact on Ireland:
– Changes in rainfall patterns
– Warmer summers and winters
– Changes in growing season
– River flooding may increase
– Sea level rises
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5. Likely Resulting Costs
• Obvious impact on population centres
• Damage to infrastructure
• Impacts on farming?
• Increased need for irrigation
– balanced by new market opportunities?
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6. • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)
– Purpose: stabilize “greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level which would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system” (Article 2)
– Opened for signature at UNCED in 1992, in force 1994
• Kyoto Protocol (1997)
– US and Australia refused to ratify
– Europe coaxed Russia into ratifying in 2004
7. • Policies and measures to reduce emissions
• Aggregate emissions reduced
– by at least 5% below 1990 levels
– in the commitment period 2008 to 2012
8. Kyoto “Flexible Mechanisms”
– Emissions trading (cap-and-trade)
• No legal limit to amount purchased (Bonn)
– Joint implementation
• Projects shared between developed countries
– Clean Development Mechanism
• Projects in developing country but funded by developed
country
9. • MOP-1 in Montreal, November 2005
– Focus on dialogue for the future
• MOP-2 in Nairobi, November 2006
– Not very productive
• MOP-3 in Bali, December 2007
– Agreed “roadmap” to December 2009 for post-2012 regime
• MOP-4 in Poznan, 2008
– No significant breakthroughs
• MOP-5 in Copenhagen, 2009
• MOP-6 in Cancún, 2010
10. Preliminary work for Copenhagen Conference
• Two tracks (ad hoc working groups):
– Long-term Cooperative Action (AGW-LCA)
– Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)
• Collectively – “The Bali Roadmap”
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11. The “Copenhagen Accord”, 2009
• Emission reductions by Annex I countries
• Mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries
• “Copenhagen Green Climate Fund”
• To be assessed by 2015
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12. MOP-6, Cancún, Mexico (Nov-Dec 2010)
• Positive outcomes
– Approved “Accord”
– Established “Adaptation Framework”/“Committee”
– “Green Climate Fund” (with pledges)
• Shift from “top-down” to “bottom-up” approach?
• Procedural and substantive challenges:
– Unwieldy procedures
– North/South suspicions
– Ideological grandstanding
– Need for consensus
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13. US: Application of Clean Air Act
• Massachusetts v EPA
• National Fuel Efficiency Policy
• Tailoring Rule
• Regional voluntary cap-and-trade systems
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14. US: Legislative Proposals
• American Clean Energy and Security Bill (Waxman-Markey)
• Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Bill (Kerry-Boxer)
• No new legislation expected
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15. EU Response
• Negotiation of a ‘bubble’ for emissions
• Overall target: reduction of 8%
• Irish target: increase of 13%
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)
• “20/20/20” target:
– by 2020,
– 20% emissions reduction,
– 20% use of renewables
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16. • Directive 2003/87/EC
• Two periods: 2005-2007 & 2008-2012
• Cap-and-trade system
• Applies to some industrial activities (energy, ferrous metals,
mineral industry, etc.)
• Allowances granted by governments, based on National
Allocation Plan (NAP)
– 2005-2007: at least 95% free
– 2008-2012: at least 90% free
17. ETS Penalties
• 30 April each year:
– 2005-2007: €40/tonne
– 2008-2012: €100/tonne
• Linking Directive (2004/101/EC)
– Connected to JI/CDM
18. EU: Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Issues
• Over-allocation of allowances
• Carbon leakage?
• Lack of real impact?
• Security issues
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19. • Directive 1999/94/EC on consumer information on car
economy and CO2 emissions (under review)
• Decision 1753/00/EC on CO2 monitoring for new cars
• Regulation 443/2009/EC setting emission performance
standards for new passenger cars
• Directive 2001/77/EC on renewable energy sources
• Directive 2009/28 on renewable energy
• Directive 2003/30/EC on biofuels (to be replaced by Directive
2009/28)
20. • Directive 2008/101/EC to include aviation in the EU ETS
• Directive 2002/91/EC on the energy performance of buildings
• Directive 2003/96/EC on taxation of energy products
• Regulation 842/2006/EC on certain flourinated greenhouse
gases (and related technical regulations)
21. Other European Legislation
• Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage
• Changes to Fuel Quality Directive and Energy Performance of
Buildings Directive
• Effort Sharing Decision (406/2009/EC) – Irish target: -20%
reduction in emissions
22. • 2000: National Climate Change Strategy launched
• ‘Business as usual not an option’
• Key initiatives in NCCS:
– Carbon energy taxation
– Use of emissions trading
– Measures supportive of ending coal-firing at Moneypoint
– Fuel switching to low and zero carbon fuels
– Livestock reductions and lower fertiliser use
– Fuel efficiency, demand management and modal shift in transport
– Energy efficiency in construction
– Adjustment of the new house grant
23. • Excise relief for biofuels
• Domestic emissions trading linked with EU ETS
• Carbon tax abandoned September 2004
• Moneypoint still open, retrofit approved
• Back to ‘business-as-usual’?
24. • April 2007: National Climate Change Strategy
• Projected emissions: 80 MtCO2E
• Kyoto target: 63 MtCO2E
• Reduction of 17 MtCO2E required
25. • Energy: ETS, renewable energy
• Transport: Transport 21, car technology improvements,
support for biofuels
• Residential: Building Regulations amendments
• Industry: ETS, voluntary Large Industry Energy Network,
support for bioheat and CHP
• Agriculture and Forestry: CAP reform, afforestation
• Waste: diversion of biodegradable waste, landfill gas
capture
• Public Sector: CFL bulbs, energy savings by OPW, carbon
offsets for air travel, biomass heating in schools
26. • Flexible Mechanisms
– 3.6 MtCO2E purchase
– Anticipated annual cost of €54 million
• Climate Change Commission
• Annual Implementation Status Report (replaced by carbon
budgets)
• EPA to prepare emissions reports and projections
• New Climate Change Strategy to be prepared
27. • Environmental Protection Agency Act 1992
(as amended by Protection of the Environment
Act 1992)
• Sustainable Energy Act 2002
28. • European Communities (Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Trading) Regulations 2004 (SI
437/2004)
• Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms
Regulations 2006 (SI 244/2006)
• European Communities (Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Trading) (Amendment) Regulations
2005 (SI 706/2005)
29. • Building Regulations (Amendment)
Regulations 2005 (SI 873/2005)
• European Communities (Energy Performance
of Buildings) Regulations 2006 (SI 666/2006)
• Building Regulations (Amendment)
Regulations 2007 (SI 854/2007)
30. • Planning and Development Regulations 2007
(SI 83/2007)
• Planning and Development Regulations 2008
(SI 235/2008)
31. • Carbon Fund Act 2007
• Motor Vehicle (Duties and Licences) (No. 2) Act 2008
• Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2009
• Energy (Biofuel Obligation and Miscellaneous Provisions)
Act 2010
• Private Members Bills
32. Ireland: Carbon Budget 2010
• Carbon levy: €15 per tonne of carbon dioxide
• Framework for Climate Change Bill
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33. Government: Climate Change Bill
• Target: average 3% annual reduction on 1990 to 2020; 80%
by 2050
• National Climate Change Strategy: statutory basis
• Carbon Budget: also statutory basis
• Climate Change Committee: statutory, high level experts
• Change Change Adaptation: statutory, 8 year cycle
• Domestic Carbon Offsetting/Trading
• Monitoring, Reporting and Statutory Obligations
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34. Joint Committee: Climate Change Bill
• Target: 20% reduction on 2005 by 2020; 30% if successor to Kyoto
Protocol
• Office of Climate Change and Renewable Energy: part of Department of
An Taoiseach
• National Climate Change Strategy: annual, by Taoiseach
• Climate Change Commission: independent
• Climate Change Dividend Fund: revenue from auctions, taxes
• Offset schemes: including forest carbon offsets
• Risk assessment: every 5 years
• Climate change statements: from significant public authorities and bodies
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36. Influences on the Future
• Better understanding of sustainability issues
• Economic recession
• Smaller-scale agreements between groups of states
• Increasing media scrutiny and hostile public comment
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37. Possible Future Responses
• Voluntary industry schemes
• Public procurement criteria
• Expansion of ETS
• Public awareness campaigns
• Product labelling
• Financial instruments: carbon taxes & subsidies
• Individual carbon credits (‘carbon rationing’)
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38. The Future
• UNFCCC process in trouble?
• Bilateral and small-scale multilateral treaties?
• Climate Change Act 201x?
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