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Counterfeit Components - Mitigating Risk 2014

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Counterfeit Components - Mitigating Risk 2014

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Counterfeit and fraudulent components in the supply chain pose a significant threat to the reliability, performance, and safety of electronics products and their end-users. This presentation shares counterfeit trends and insights, including potential similarities in supply chain impacts of counterfeit regulations with other regulatory issues RoHS, REACH, and Conflict Minerals.

Counterfeit and fraudulent components in the supply chain pose a significant threat to the reliability, performance, and safety of electronics products and their end-users. This presentation shares counterfeit trends and insights, including potential similarities in supply chain impacts of counterfeit regulations with other regulatory issues RoHS, REACH, and Conflict Minerals.

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Counterfeit Components - Mitigating Risk 2014

  1. 1. OCTOBER 2014 COUNTERFEITCOMPONENTS Mitigating the Risk RoryKing DirectorThought Leadership IHS, Inc. Rory.King@IHS.com
  2. 2. WHATWEDO IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a global information and analytics companywith world-class experts in pivotal areas shaping today’s business landscape. Organizations around the world depend on our insights to help themmake decisions about everything fromday-to-day operations to long-term investments. We employ over 8,000 people inmore than 31 countries around the world. INFORMATION © 2014 IHS 02 © 2014 IHS ABOUTIHS ANALYTICS EXPERTISE
  3. 3. © 2014 IHS Worldwide Electronic Equipment Revenue by Market 5.50% 16.90% 21.30% 24.80% 25.90% 5.60% Automotive Electronics Consumer Electronics Data Processing Industrial Electronics Wired Communications Wireless Communications Welcome 3 Source: IHS Technology, Electronics Equipment and Semiconductor Market Forecast Tool, 2014 Worldwide OEM Factory Revenue will be $2.045 Trillion in 2014 CAGR of 3.7% from 2013 - 2018 You are here
  4. 4. Counterfeit components © 2014 IHS 4 Top Impacts of Counterfeits Source: IHS Technology, 2009
  5. 5. Counterfeit components © 2014 IHS 5 Top Impacts of Counterfeits Source: IHS Technology, 2009 Experiences of Engineering, Procurement, and Supply Chain Professionals In 2009, a study was conducted among electronics supply chain professionals, asking what the impacts of counterfeits were. These are written testimonials of those participating professionals.
  6. 6. Increased counterfeiting © 2014 IHS Counterfeit Incidents by Component, 2003 - 2013 Analog IC , 19.0% Memory IC , 14.6% Microprocessor IC , 13.7% Programmable logic IC, 10.2% Other, components, 42.4% Source: IHS Technology, Parts 2014
  7. 7. Analog IC – the most counterfeited © 2014 IHS 2014 Analog IC Market (Total Shipment Revenue US$M*) Automotive $8.5 billion (15.7%) 7 Wireless Market $18.9 billion (34.8%) Data Processing $6.0 billion (11%) Consumer Electronics $9.0 billion (16.6%) Industrial Electronics $8.9 billion (16.5%) Wired Communications $2.9 billion (5.4%) Source: IHS * rounded to 1 decimal place Technology, Parts 2014
  8. 8. Top four counterfeited could impact $281.5B worth of semi markets Component Application Market by Percentage and Total Shipment Revenue (US$M), 2014 © 2014 IHS 8 Application Market Memory IC Microprocessor IC Programmable Logic IC Analog IC Data Processing 40.30% 60.10% 23.60% 10.80% Wired Communications 2.40% 4.00% 10.50% 6.30% Wireless Communications 43.80% 5.60% 42.50% 34.40% Consumer Electronics 8.70% 9.60% 15.50% 16.90% Automotive Electronics 1.70% 11.00% 2.90% 17.40% Industrial Electronics 2.90% 9.70% 5.00% 14.30% MCP 0.10% - - - Total (Percentage) 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Total (US$M) 59,704 69,133 98,555 54,161 The Top Counterfeited Components Over three quarters of all incidents are for integrated circuits. More than half of reported counterfeit incidents are for analog integrated circuits, memory devices, microprocessors, and programmable logic.
  9. 9. Focus on defense supply chain © 2014 IHS 9 Excerpts from US SASC Hearing, November 8, 2011 Timeline of Events November 29, 2011, the US Senate unanimously approved an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 and President Obama signed the NDAA on December 31, 2011.
  10. 10. Not just obsolete defense parts Passive, 2.9% Other, 3.3% Integrated circuits, 76.8% © 2014 IHS Counterfeit Incident Statistics, 2003-2013 Electro-mechanical, 0.4% EOL/Lifebuy Transferred Active Discontinued Military Part Commercial Part Notable Highlights Discrete, 16.6% 52.8% 32.2% 14.6% 81.5% 18.5% Source: IHS Technology, Parts Management 2014 0.4% Over three quarters of all incidents were IC’s. While the majority of incidents are for discontinued components, nearly one third were for active devices. Over eight in ten were commercial parts.
  11. 11. Military/aero is only 1% of market 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 © 2014 IHS Military & Civil Aerospace vs. Total Semiconductor Market (Revenue Shipment US$M) Source: IHS Technology, Application Market Forecast Tool, 2014 11 0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Military & Civil Aerospace Rest of Market Military & Civil Aerospace is 1% of Worldwide Semiconductor Market
  12. 12. Regulations are perceived to be specific but have a global impact • EU ROHS (2003) • EU REACH (2007) • US Conflict Minerals (Dodd-Frank 2010) • US NDAA FY12 818 (2011) © 2014 IHS 12 ▲Cost ▲EOL ▼ Supply ▼ Competition
  13. 13. But what do these really call for? authenticity, traceability, reliability • EU ROHS (2003) • EU REACH (2007) • US Conflict Minerals (Dodd-Frank 2010) • US NDAA FY12 818 (2011) © 2014 IHS 13 The average component manufacturer has 50+ authorized sources of product
  14. 14. Mitigate risk • Counterfeit risk is real and growing • It’s not exclusive to defense / obsolete parts • Safety and reliability threaten all end markets • Regulations are not localized  global impact • Authorized, “trusted” component sources © 2014 IHS
  15. 15. About Rory King © 2014 IHS Rory King, Director, Thought Leadership, IHS Rory King is Director, Thought Leadership at IHS Inc. In this role, he has primary oversight for the identification and cultivation of original expertise and insights associated with the most significant global megatrends, business drivers, market drivers, and strategic themes shaping four connected, capital-intensive worldwide sectors with common supply chains: energy, chemicals, technology, and transportation. This includes coverage of the most critical and significant issues associated with advanced analytics, economics, operational excellence, risk management, innovation, product design, and supply management underpinning these convergent industries. For over 15 years, Mr. King's collaboration and leadership have led to over 20 awards for excellence in individual performance, process improvement and original insight in areas of innovation, product lifecycle management, supply chain management, risk management, and sustainability. As an industry thought leader, his unique research, analyses, and evangelism on topics such as conflict minerals, semiconductor technology, environmental regulations, counterfeit electronics, and supply chain risk, have been featured by global news and information services including CNN, The Wall Street Journal, BBC News, Fox News, Compliance Week, The Federal Times, and IHS Quarterly, in addition to numerous industry research, media, and trade publications.

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