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The New Information Economy:  The Changing Landscape Victor Camlek Director, Market Intelligence Thomson Scientific 26 February 2008
Shifting Economic Power ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  Accenture,  The Rise of the Multi-Polar World , 2007
Global Implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  Accenture,  The Rise of the Multi-Polar World , 2007
Definitions of Emerging Economies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Emerging Economies: One View of the Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],First Wave-BRIC Source :  Goldman Sachs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Emerging Economies: The BRIC Nations Brazil Russia India China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Economist, Country Briefings ,[object Object]
BRIC: The Goldman Sachs 50-Year View ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :   Goldman Sachs ,  Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 , D. Wilson & R. Purushothaman, 1 st  Oct. 2003, Global Economics Paper No: 99 *G6= France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US
The Largest Economies in 2050? ( 2003 US$ in billions ) Source :  Goldman Sachs, 2003 China US India Japan Brazil Russia UK Germany France Italy
Emerging Economies: On the Horizon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Accenture,  Rise of the Emerging Market Multinational , 2008 The Next Wave Still to Come ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP Source :  CIA World Fact Book  2007 (online) GDP =  Gross Domestic Product or the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year
There are Multiple Ways to View GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources :  CIA World Fact Book  2007 (online); D&B
Comparative Economic Indicators: The G6 + BRIC * GDP (purchasing power parity)  ** At Official Exchange Rates  See notes for definitions Source :  CIA World Fact Book  2007 (online) 1.7%  $1.86 trillion  $1.8 trillion  58,147,733  Italy 4.1%  $2.47 trillion  $1.84 trillion  190,010,647  Brazil 1.5%  $2.24 trillion  $2.07 trillion  63,718,187  France 11.9% $1.25 trillion  $2.08 trillion  141,377,752  Russia 2.4%  $1.27 trillion  $2.15 trillion  60,776,238  UK 2.0%  $3.02 trillion  $2.83 trillion  82,400,996  Germany 5.9% $894.1 billion  $2.96 trillion  1,129,866,154 India 2.0% $5.10 trillion $4.31 trillion 127,443,494 Japan 6.2% $2.53 trillion  $7.04 trillion 1,321,851,888 China 2.7%  $13.75 trillion  $13.86 trillion  301,139,947 US Inflation GDP** GDP PPP* Population  
Real GDP Growth Source :  D&B Country Profiles Growth Pct.
Nominal GDP  Source :  D&B Country Profiles  US$ in Trillions Unadjusted for inflation
ADDITIONAL DRIVERS
Global R&D Spending by Region Asia 36.9% 40.8% 2006 2008E Europe 25.2% 23.9% Americas 35.7% 33.1% Europe Americas Asia Source:  R&D Magazine , September 2007 RoW 2.1% RoW 2.2% “ R&D Magazine, forecasts that global R&D spending will reach $1,210bn in 2008, 7.6% higher than in 2007. Much of this growth continues to be fueled by a rapid expansion of R&D in China, whose spending is expected to grow by nearly 24% in 2008 to $216.8bn — about 18% of global spending, up from 14% just two years ago.”
Global R&D Spending by Country China 13.5% 17.9% 2006 2008E ROW 45.3% US 32.7% 33.1% RoW 3.7% US India 50.1% India 3.7% Source:  R&D Magazine , September 2007 China Although the US still represents 1/3 of R&D spending, China continues to gain share
Source:  National Science Foundation:  Asia's Rising Science & Technology Strength: Comparative Indicators for Asia, the EU, and the US   http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07319/figures/figure5.xls ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Doctoral Degrees Awarded in Asia
Source:  National Science Foundation:  Asia's Rising Science &Technology Strength: Comparative Indicators for Asia, the EU, and the US ; TSMI Estimates, ww.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07319/figures/figure5.xls # Chinese Doctorates Expected to Grow Dramatically ,[object Object],[object Object]
So What? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CHINA & INDIA
China: Recent Economic Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  IMF, Gartner,  Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies in China , 2007 China's Inflation Hits 11-Year High , http://money.cnn.com, Feb 19, 2008
China Educational Reform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  National Science Foundation,  Science & Engineering Indicators  2006, Chapter 2
India: Recent Economic Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : IMF; Economist,  Backgrounder: India’s Economy , 31 Dec 2007; RTT News, 15 Feb 2008; Deutsche Bank,  Global Economic Outlook , 14 Feb 2008
India Educational Reform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Indian PM Describes Plan to Create 40 New Universities, Chronicle.com, 17 Aug. 2007
PUBLISHER BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
Recent Publisher Momentum Towards Asia Pacific  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Economics Demographics Opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Publishers Respond to Growth in Asia Pacific Source:  Simba,   Global STM Publishing 2007-2008 ,  Scientific & Technical Publishing, 2007 “ The demand for scientific and technical materials in any particular market is linked directly to the level of research and development spending. The commitment to R&D is long established in the U.S. and Europe. Now R&D spending is on the rise in places like China and India, so publishers have increased their presence in those markets.” –  Simba
Publishing in Asia Pacific ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Datamonitor,  Industry Profile, Publishing in Asia-Pacific ,  2007 Market Share by AP Country S. Korea 14% Japan 50.4% China 20% Rest of AP 10.5% India 4.9% Growth in Publishing in Asia Pacific Together, Japan and China account for 70.4% of the AP market
Internet Market in Asia Pacific Source :  Datamonitor,  Industry Profile: Internet Access in India , 2007 Together, Japan and China account for almost 2/3 (66%) of the AP internet market Total AP revenue in 2007: $122.7B India 5.5% Japan 35.5% China 30.5% S. Korea 16.6% Rest of AP  12.4%
Publishing in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources :  Datamonitor, 2007;  China STM: China’s STM Publishing and Scientific Press , Xiang Anquan, Editor-in-Chief, Science Press
Internet Industry Growth in China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:   Datamonitor,  Industry Profile: Internet Access in China , 2007 Internet Access: Market Value Forecast 2006-2011 $USB Internet Access: Market Volume Forecast 2006-2011 Mn Users
Publishing In India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Datamonitor,  Media in India; Gobi International , 2007; Speech by Shri Keshav Desiraju, Jt. Sec’y, Ministry of Hum. Res. Dev., Gov’ t of India, Delivered at the Frankfurt Book Fair, 2006
Internet Industry Growth in India  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Datamonitor,  Industry Profile: Internet Access in India , 2007 Internet Access: Market Value Forecast 2006-2011 $USM Internet Access: Market Volume Forecast 2006-2011 Mn Users
Global Publisher Momentum Towards Asia Pacific ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Selected Publisher Initiatives Publishers with Regional Facilities
Spotlight on Global Publisher Activity ,[object Object],Wiley ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Thomson Scientific ,[object Object],[object Object],Nature Publishing Group (NPG) ,[object Object],Springer ,[object Object],Wolters Kluwer ,[object Object],AAAS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Elsevier ,[object Object],Royal Society of Chemistry ,[object Object],Oxford University Press Initiatives Focused on Asia Publisher
OFFSHORING
Key Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Offshoring in China and India: A Shifting Landscape ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Marketing Charts, IDC:  China to Overtake India in Offshore Delivery in 2011 ;   CapGemini,  Offshoring Evolution: Changing Trends in India and China Across Industries , 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Offshoring: China ,[object Object],Outsourcing Activities in Three to Five Years Compared to Today Source : CapGemini,  Offshoring Evolution: Changing Trends in India and China Across Industries , 2007
Offshoring Trends Among Publishers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Offshoring in the Publishing Vertical : An update ©ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd “ While STM/Academic and educational publishing have been the front-runners in offshoring, the legal segment is catching up quickly.”
Types of Services Performed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :  Offshoring in the Publishing Vertical : An update ©ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you for attending my presentation Victor Camlek Victor Camlek Director, Market Intelligence Thomson Scientific [email_address]

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Nfais Presentation20080226 F

  • 1. The New Information Economy: The Changing Landscape Victor Camlek Director, Market Intelligence Thomson Scientific 26 February 2008
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  • 8. The Largest Economies in 2050? ( 2003 US$ in billions ) Source : Goldman Sachs, 2003 China US India Japan Brazil Russia UK Germany France Italy
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  • 10. GDP Source : CIA World Fact Book 2007 (online) GDP = Gross Domestic Product or the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year
  • 11.
  • 12. Comparative Economic Indicators: The G6 + BRIC * GDP (purchasing power parity) ** At Official Exchange Rates See notes for definitions Source : CIA World Fact Book 2007 (online) 1.7% $1.86 trillion $1.8 trillion 58,147,733 Italy 4.1% $2.47 trillion $1.84 trillion 190,010,647 Brazil 1.5% $2.24 trillion $2.07 trillion 63,718,187 France 11.9% $1.25 trillion $2.08 trillion 141,377,752 Russia 2.4% $1.27 trillion $2.15 trillion 60,776,238 UK 2.0% $3.02 trillion $2.83 trillion 82,400,996 Germany 5.9% $894.1 billion $2.96 trillion 1,129,866,154 India 2.0% $5.10 trillion $4.31 trillion 127,443,494 Japan 6.2% $2.53 trillion $7.04 trillion 1,321,851,888 China 2.7% $13.75 trillion $13.86 trillion 301,139,947 US Inflation GDP** GDP PPP* Population  
  • 13. Real GDP Growth Source : D&B Country Profiles Growth Pct.
  • 14. Nominal GDP Source : D&B Country Profiles US$ in Trillions Unadjusted for inflation
  • 16. Global R&D Spending by Region Asia 36.9% 40.8% 2006 2008E Europe 25.2% 23.9% Americas 35.7% 33.1% Europe Americas Asia Source: R&D Magazine , September 2007 RoW 2.1% RoW 2.2% “ R&D Magazine, forecasts that global R&D spending will reach $1,210bn in 2008, 7.6% higher than in 2007. Much of this growth continues to be fueled by a rapid expansion of R&D in China, whose spending is expected to grow by nearly 24% in 2008 to $216.8bn — about 18% of global spending, up from 14% just two years ago.”
  • 17. Global R&D Spending by Country China 13.5% 17.9% 2006 2008E ROW 45.3% US 32.7% 33.1% RoW 3.7% US India 50.1% India 3.7% Source: R&D Magazine , September 2007 China Although the US still represents 1/3 of R&D spending, China continues to gain share
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  • 28. Publishers Respond to Growth in Asia Pacific Source: Simba, Global STM Publishing 2007-2008 , Scientific & Technical Publishing, 2007 “ The demand for scientific and technical materials in any particular market is linked directly to the level of research and development spending. The commitment to R&D is long established in the U.S. and Europe. Now R&D spending is on the rise in places like China and India, so publishers have increased their presence in those markets.” – Simba
  • 29.
  • 30. Internet Market in Asia Pacific Source : Datamonitor, Industry Profile: Internet Access in India , 2007 Together, Japan and China account for almost 2/3 (66%) of the AP internet market Total AP revenue in 2007: $122.7B India 5.5% Japan 35.5% China 30.5% S. Korea 16.6% Rest of AP 12.4%
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  • 44. Thank you for attending my presentation Victor Camlek Victor Camlek Director, Market Intelligence Thomson Scientific [email_address]