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Mobile Trends 2020

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mobile trends for the next 10
a collaborative outlook

Publié dans : Technologie, Business
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Mobile Trends 2020

  1. mobile trends for the next 10 a collaborative outlook compliled by Rudy De Waele / m-trends.org
  2. contributors Douglas Rushkoff 4 Kevin C. Tofel 33 Katrin Verclas 5 Jonathan MacDonald 34 Willem Boijens 6 David Wood 36 Timo Arnall 7 Michael Breidenbruecker 37 Gerd Leonhard 9 Henri Moissinac 38 Fabien Girardin 10 Andreas Constantinou 39 Alan Moore 11 C. Enrique Ortiz 40 Martin Duval 12 Raj Singh 42 Tony Fish 13 Marc Davis 43 Ilja Laurs 14 David Harper 44 Yuri van Geest 15 Loic Le Meur 45 Nicolas Nova 17 Ajit Jaokar 47 Raimo van der Klein 18 Inma Martinez 48 Russell Buckley 19 Carlos Domingo 49 Tomi Ahonen 20 Kelly Goto 50 Stefan Constantinescu 21 Felix Petersen 51 Rich Wong 23 Matthaus Krzykowski 53 Marshall Kirkpatrick 24 Tom Hume 54 Andy Abramson 25 Atau Tanaka 55 Marek Pawlowski 26 Robert Rice 56 Russ McGuire 27 You! (if you like) 58 Carlo Longino 28 Howard Rheingold 30 Steve O'Hear 31 enjoy! Ted Morgan 32
  3. At the turn of a decade it's always worthwhile looking back to ones initial dreams. In my case it was all about being at the forefront of innovation in the mobile space. From viewing my first mobile video in Helsinki to the first mobile augmented reality demo in Amsterdam. I had the chance to participate in and witness many interesting projects in mobile from the 1st row: as an entrepreneur, a strategist, a conference organizer, a blogger, a speaker and a networker with a mission to inspire others, to help them in the process of building new great things. To this end I have been writing down my predictions in mobile & wireless for a couple of years now. This year I thought it was the time to move on and do something different, so I asked some of my personal heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends for the coming decade. All of them have been of great inspiration to me during this decade: for their ideas, visions, talent, the capabilities to adapt and the perseverance to succeed whatever the situation. While I didn't know any one of these great people 10 years ago, I'm glad to have met most of them and proud that some I can call them real friends. I am in awe and grateful when I look at the wisdom and insight that these busy people were so happy to share with the world. It is exactly in this spirit that I myself want to move on into the next decade. Convinced that more openness, knowledge sharing and collaboration is key to facing our global challenges, in 2009, I co-founded dotopen.com. A space at the fuzzy edges of innovation, dotopen.com will hopefully help many entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up, exchange, collaborate, create and inspire. I hope to meet you all there! Rudy De Waele co-founder dotopen.com, blogger, speaker @mtrends m-trends.org BY NC ND
  4. 1. ESP sensors. Probably based on brainwave activity. Not so hard. 2. Driving locks. 3. Implanted bluetooth ear and microphone. 4. Verizon abandons CDMA. 5. Radiation and brain damage documented. Douglas Rushkoff Author of Life Inc. @rushkoff rushkoff.com BY NC ND 4
  5. Katrin Verclas Co-founder & editor of MobileActive.org @KatrinSkaya mobileactive.org 1. Mobiles in social development will truly become an integral part of development projects and programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech as part of their programmes. UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard. 2. Africa will see the first truly mobile political campaign. It'll be likely in Nigeria in 2010. 3. Mobile payments will be widespread - for social benefit payments by governments, for remittances across borders, and for tax and other payments by citizens. This will make financial governance every so slightly more accountable in developing countries, and will begin to make a positive economic impact at the bottom of the economic pyramid. 4. Health care delivery, especially in developing countries, will see some true breakthroughs with more telemedicine projects like mobile ultrasound and other diagnostics. New business models involving medical expertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between healthcare between rich and poor areas will flatten. 5. Elections and other forms of political expression by citizens, government oversight will be radically different than they are today by way of mobile voting, mobiles for reporting and government accountability. 6. Environmental monitoring in the form of smart sensing devices will be part of everyday life with new forms of scientific environmental discovery and mitigation possible. BY NC ND 5
  6. 1. We're all value creators: value creation & exchange, collaboration, cocreation in real-time, the next billion internet users 2. LifeFlow: wellbeing, productivity, efficiency, sustainability 3. Sense: natural interfaces, projection display, Large Quantity Information Display (LQID), ambient vs single task driven UIs 4. Swarming: dynamic grids, ad-hoc & meshed networks, spatial data, adaptive architecture, smart mobility & energy services 5. Morph: identities, shapes & materials, wearables, disposables, digestables Willem Boijens Marketing innovation & design executive/ Principal manager at Vodafone Group Marketing @willemjhboijens vodafone.com BY NC ND 6
  7. 1. Things and services: The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal, social, visual and manipulable representations. With all of these personal activities that can be measured or 'counted' (Nike+, Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical) there is potential for a broad range of personal and public services. 2. Physical diversification: There will be an enormous physical diversification of connected devices. In many cases a connected object are no longer just 'mobile' but e-readers, cameras, music players, and household appliances all the way up to cars, public spaces and buildings (where there is a good reason to do so). 3. Daily data: As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our online 'data shadows' that are created out of this data (cf. Mike Kuniavsky), this will have significant effects on everyday life and on our sense of value in personal information. The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily life that try to influence the 'things that can be counted'. 4. Pervasive privacy: Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities, places, relationships, finances, health, etc. the issues around privacy will really come to a head. Not just the 'big brother' privacy issues that will be tested through the legal system, but really sticky, complex social and personal privacy issues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve (cf. Everyware). 5. Always-on backlash: In reaction to increased, pervasive connectivity, there must be an 'always- on backlash' en masse. There will not just be niche communities choosing to 'opt-out', but it will become culturally, socially necessary and desirable to be offline. The ability to gracefully disconnect and go 'dark' must become a USP for many products and services. Timo Arnall Design Researcher at Oslo School of Architecture and Design @TimoArnall elasticspace.com BY NC ND 7
  8. [to gracefully disconnect]
  9. 1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising - and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile, location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video. 2. Tablet devices will become the way many of us will 'read' magazines, books, newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts, conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base. 3. Many makers of simple smart phones - probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available for free - but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs. 4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without SIM cards. The likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi / WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the provision of 'experiences' 5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and flat-rates - many of them Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of consuming, and interacting with content. First music, then books, new and magazines, then film & TV. Gerd Leonhard Author & Blogger, Keynote Speaker & Strategist @gleonhard mediafuturist.com BY NC ND 9
  10. 1. Web of things: an average networked pet will have a voice, generating more data traffic than the average human 2. Digital syllogomania: digital garbage collection becomes a (very) lucrative business 3. Networked urbanism: mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on the ability to regulate urban dynamics with data and intelligent algorithms 4. Seamful design: opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing dense data clouds, their scattered intelligent services and their occasional hail of contextual information. 5. The messiness and unpredictability of the world continue to seriously challenge any technophilic dreams and their strategies of bordering Fabien Girardin Researcher at Lift lab @fabiengirardin liftlab.com/ BY NC ND 10
  11. 1. Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon, with much misinformed digital ink spilt 2. The penny starts to drop with companies that Social Marketing Intelligence is the black gold of the 21st Century 3. Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are constantly updated to deliver better enabling services begins to transform the media industry – for example creating highly accurate 3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database 4. Convergence enables the blending of reality from online and off so there is no distinction 5. The communications revolution accelerates destroying businesses that refuse to think the unthinkable Alan Moore Author, blogger, entrepreneur @alansmlxl smlxtralarge.com BY NC ND 11
  12. 1. Still to come ‘Easy Back Up & Storage’ of Address Book, mobile content and now Apps in case phone is lost, stolen or changed 2. Emotions and social network recommendation based mobile search 3. Mobile payment and transfer (in Europe) 4. SMS based Health & Wellness monitoring and coaching 5. ‘Green Tech’ phones and in emerging countries, self-repairable ones 6. Mobile battery performance and charging solutions Martin Duval CEO bluenove @bluenove bluenove.com BY NC ND 12
  13. 1. Connection managers. They will become critical for differentiation as devices will be able to handle massive data speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds for hours; from any available network. 2. User Interface. Mashup interfaces across voice, touch and movement will create new experiences for getting data into and controlling mobile devices. Open (environments) will change the game. 3. Sensors. Mobile devices will have sensors added which will enable the capture local data from temperature to noise and from location to who else is in the room. 4. Business model. Based on game changes 2 and 3, brands realize that more value is created from the analysis of sensor data taken off the mobile devices than from user voice or data usage analysis. Combining the two, sensor and user data, it will be possible to generate new business models and shareholder value. 5. Ownership of your data footprint. Every brand wants to own you and your data. Users will become discriminating about brands who deliver value to them and these will be different from those who are in the mobile retail value chain today. Trust and privacy will be at the forefront of the user decision. www.mydigitalfootprint.com Tony Fish Entrepreneur & strategic thinker AMF Ventures @TonyFish tonyfish.com BY NC ND 13
  14. 1. It's all about phones. 50% hardware, 50% software and services (UI, widgets, integrated services, etc.). Apps and app stores are important (just as platforms are), but the consumer will see a leapfrog in devices, equivalent to BW (representing today's featurephones) to colour (representing todays' smartphones) devices shift. 2011, with smartphone being the mainstream device, to the contrary, will be much less about devices and much more about apps and services, call the "second wave of apps". 2. iPhone is into linear growth, Android still very slow next year, generally status quo compared to 2009. 2011 iPhone stabilizing and very fragmented Android rapidly taking off. 3. Strong movement, lead primarily by developers (not consumers), to open the ecosystem. 4. We will see several app successes ($10m/yr businesses built on apps) in 2010, but massive app successes will come in 2011/12, the industry will see $100m/yr businesses built on apps 5. Certainly 2010 is the year of app stores "opening". Unfortunately there's no definition of what is "open" (every app store calls itself open, still some reject voice/navigation, etc. apps based on their competing business model and not on the user experience, quality or other objective measures. But even taking to quality and other objective measures, open for GJ means that it is the consumer decides what quality is acceptable). 2010 will certainly see all appstores being more open than in 2009, still in general there will still be a lot of questions. Ilja Laurs Founder and CEO of GetJar @getjar getjar.com BY NC ND 14
  15. 1. Mobile DNA: anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper targeted DNA-based services (dating, finance, education, medicine, food, sports) 2. Mobile Neurotech: using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses, thoughts, emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurology 3. mHealth: using mobile sensors, bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research 4. Internet of Things: multimedia sensors in animals, objects, buildings and places that allow being present of everything if needed, filtering will be biggest theme in this respect 5. Mobile Learning and Science: mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized learning (a.o. DNA based) and discovery of important changes in the environment Yuri van Geest Co-Founder Mobile Monday Amsterdam, Co-Organizer TEDx Amsterdam, Futurist @vangeest mobilemonday.nl BY NC ND 15
  16. [open up]
  17. 1. VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer 2. The return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the “through of disillusionment” 3. Some (rich) people will pay to be disconnected 4. Non-humans (objects, animals, places) will generate more data than humans 5. Data Structure Service: services that allow to maintain/sort/ structure all these data will gain even more weight Nicolas Nova researcher @nicolasnova liftlab.com BY NC ND 17
  18. 1. Augmented Reality: placing digital content literally in physical context. 2. Indoor Smartness: indoor positioning, smart environments. 3. Vendor Relationship Management: customers in control, people send out RFQ's, includes barcode scanning, couponing, etc. 4. Contextual Information Provision: Provision of information based on LIVE information gathered through sensory input from all elements in your context. Don’t 5. Personal Area Networks: many hardware mutants and spinoffs. order eggs! Raimo van der Klein CEO Layar Jean Paul @rhymo Sartre layar.com sat here reserved buy tickets now! BY NC ND 18
  19. 1. All urban areas offer free (or funded by tax payer) Wimax connectivity, meaning that most people don’t bother with an operator relationship any more. Landlines are gone. 2. Mobile overtakes the PC as the largest marketing channel, offering the best results and tracking in the history of marketing. 3. Current handheld form factors disappear, with interfaces being via glasses or contact lenses, a microscopic ear piece and a device which we can envision as a ring for the finger. Three options of viewing will be available, Real World, Digital World and a combination of the two ie Augmented Reality. In this Post PC Era, laptops will be quaintly old-fashioned and unsupported commercially. 4. Mobile product and service innovation will be greatly influenced in the next 10 years by emerging markets, who already live in the Post PC Era today. Education is the first vertical to be hugely impacted. 5. People still won’t pay for Digital Content. Russell Buckley VP Global Alliances AdMob & Chairman Emeritus Mobile Marketing Association @russellbuckley mobhappy.com BY NC ND 19
  20. 1. Shrinking superphone reaches 10 dollar cost; better than iPhone of today. Moore's Law brings us ever cheaper phones so cheap 'Africa' phones and kids' phones in 2020 are better than modern top end phones of 2010, like Nokia N900, Google Nexus and Apple iPhone 3GS. Better phones will be used at work and play, top end 'smartphones' will be embedded within humans enhancing our vision, hearing, memory etc. 2. Mobile advertising becomes biggest ad platform. Mobile advertising grows to become biggest ad platform exceeding TV and internet by reach and by ad revenues. Mobile ads mature beyond banner ads and SMS spam, become ever more compelling and 'engaging'. Will not kill off other older media like TV, print and internet, as each will adjust to the newest medium. 3. Half of total economy in many countries transits mobile phone payments. The rapid growth of mobile banking and credit will change the payments systems of all countries. Combined with interactive ads, mobile money will shift phone to mobile wallet with our keys and loyalty points and identity cards. In all countries normal to get paycheck paid to phone, in many leading m-banking countries, where traditional banking institutions are weak like in Africa, more than half of total economy will pass through mobile phones. 4. "Star Trek Universal Translator' is commonplace. The early translator utilities of today will evolve and by end of decade, all standard phone feature near-real time 'accurate' translators in voice-to-voice and text-to-text (and across voice/text/voice). You point the phone at speaker in foreign language, your earpiece hears the simultaneous translation as if UN professional translator stood next to you. 5. Our phone becomes magical servant as concierge. The early mobile concierge services like from Japan today evolve. As our payments and media and calendar info is integrated, the concierge avatar on the phone adds 'secretary', 'butler', 'accountant' and 'lawyer' functions to assist us, like Amazon today anticipates and 'reads our minds' of what book to recommend, the phone servant avatar in 2020 will run our lives, answer our calls, send messages on behalf of us, order goods and services, and give us reminders. Tomi Ahonen Author @tomiahonen tomiahonen.com BY NC ND 20
  21. 1. A device as powerful as the iPhone 3GS is today will cost less than 100 EUR by 2016 thereby enabling a whole new economic strata rich mobile access to the internet. 2. NFC will drastically take off and similar to how today it's impossible to buy a mobile phone without a camera, that point will be reached with NFC by the tail end of the next decade. 3. Rich nations will start seeing the number of hours people spend in front of screens decline for the first time and the masses will limit or stop use a certain technology or service to reconnect with the joys of overcoming an obstacle. 4. People will pay for content again, especially mobile content since mobile advertising takes up valuable screen real estate, because operator billing will finally replace the piece of plastic in your wallet. 5. Thanks to Bluetooth and wireless display technology the mobile phone will literally be the only computer people own. Stefan Constantinescu Editor, Intomobile @GJCAG intomobile.com BY NC ND 21
  22. [emotional recommendations]
  23. 1. Over 50% of the world’s households carry a mobile device – 3B+ (think about that, how cool is that, what will it mean for societal integration) 2. Mobile internet surpasses the wireline internet in global REACH (more people with IP connections in mobile than PCs) 3. Mobile advertising becomes mainstream (imagine a Brand Manager without a URL today) 4. Augmented reality and advanced LBS services become broadscale (finally) 5. Smart Agents 2.0 (Thank you Patty Maes) become real; the ability to deduce/impute context from blend of usage and location data (privacy issues need to be handled of course) Rich Wong Partner at Accel Partners @rich_wong facebook.com/accel BY NC ND 23
  24. 1. Mobile content recommendation 2. Lifestream integration with mobile contacts lists 3. Mobile data portability and data portability via mobile 4. Mobile commerce 5. Location-based social networking Marshall Kirkpatrick VP of Content Development & Lead Blogger ReadWriteWeb @marshallK readwriteweb.com BY NC ND 24
  25. 1. Cheaper Data plans, more Pay As You Go Data with Global Roaming- with LTE and WiMax bundles and buckets become like minutes. Watch the rates start to fall as the operators need more customers to support new capex spending and as they begin to leverage already established networks. 2. The Network Becomes Paramount as Devices all become Smarter – With WiMax, Mobile WiMax and WiFi-this means faster, better and cheaper data, video and voice. Newer smart devices both diverged and converged all proliferate, and will all compliment the 3G expansion plans and 4G (LTE) roll outs. Connectivity becomes ubiquitous and the idea of always on, becomes commonplace. Without a well run network, none of this grows. 3. Mobile PBX/Nomadic Mobile Enterprise Offerings-the largest customer market is the enterprise for mobile, yet we can’t transfer a call after almost 30 years of calling. A mobile PBX will change all that 4. The rise of new device brands-Nokia, Ericsson and others had a cozy ride for years with the mobile operators. Now the rising tigers from Asia (Asus, Garmin/Acer, Huawei, ZTE will start to encroach with better priced, more feature rich handsets, mostly built on Android and with data at the core. Motorola rises like a Phoenix, INQ becomes an emerging force and HTC becomes a bigger part of the game with more operators. Unlocked handsets become a bigger part of mix in countries where it never was a factor. 5. Google will be a trend changer doing for mobile what Yahoo never could achieve. Andy Abramson CEO, Comunicano, blog author of VoIPWatch & Working Anywhere @andyabramson andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch BY NC ND 25
  26. Keyboard dimensions and screen size cease to be the primary limiting factors in handset design as new input and display technologies free designers to radically change the form factor of personal communication devices. Services and content are purchased once and accessible across all devices (PC, mobile, TV etc...) as business models start to reflect the reality of consumer value perception. The mobile browser becomes the main applications platform. Smarter middleware becomes essential to mediate between rapid growth in cloud- based media storage, inherently unreliable wireless networks and a proliferation in access devices employed by the user. The most successful network operators will narrow their focus to the '3 Cs': customer service, coverage and capacity, stepping away from large-scale portal, application and media development efforts. Marek Pawlowski Founder, MEX Mobile User Experience Conference @marekpawlowski pmn.co.uk/mex/ BY NC ND 26
  27. 1. Just as microprocessors have been built into virtually every product that has a power source, over the next ten years, it will become expected that wireless connectivity will be built into virtually every product that has a microprocessor. 2. Businesses will redefine virtually every internal process and virtually every service they offer customers to leverage wireless access to information and contextual data to create new value for customers, to grow their addressable markets, and to reduce their operating costs. 3. Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs of the market, resulting in increasing data cord cutting as individuals, families, and businesses appreciate the value of mobility more than the value of excess bandwidth. 4. By the end of the decade, mobile devices will be thought of first for the applications they run rather than for their ability to make voice calls. 5. In the U.S., the Obama administration will stimulate significant expansion of the mobile market through regulatory policies (e.g. reduced backhaul costs) and direct and indirect stimulus investments (e.g. wireless broadband, smart grid). Russ McGuire VP, Strategy, Sprint Nextel @mcguireslaw mcguireslaw.com/ BY NC ND 27
  28. 1. The #1 trend for me for the next decade will be ubiquity: everybody will have mobile data access. People in developing nations will get online on mobiles before they do on PCs; and in developed nations, mobile data use will become the norm for all users. 2. Tools that help people manage their constant connectivity will be in great demand. 3. The mobile phone will evolve into an enabler device, carrying users' digital identities, preferences and possessions around with them. 4. Advanced mobile phone technology will become a commodity, and form will take precedence over function. 5. Privacy and protection of identity will create huge conflicts in many societies. Carlo Longino Blogger at Mobhappy @caaarlo mobhappy.com BY NC ND 28
  29. [watch your data shadow]
  30. 1. Distribution of sms-equipped and then increasingly smart phones in the developing world. 2. The use of environmental and biomedical sensors in conjunction with mobile communication media. 3. Augmented reality. 4. Mobile Social Software. Howard Rheingold Author of Smart Mobs @hrheingold rheingold.com BY NC ND 30
  31. 1. As phones get smarter, pipes get dumber. In the era of app stores and handset makers launching their own Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, mobile carriers will continue to struggle with the issue of who 'owns' the customer. Terrified of becoming a dumb pipe reduced to selling commodity voice and data services, some will try to innovate with their own SaaS products, most of which will fail, while the smartest players will partner and invest in innovate startups. That said, as the pipes get increasingly clogged up carrying all of this data, and with the advent of 4G, networks will start to focus on and highlight their competitiveness based on infrastructure and capacity alone. 2. Your phone will become your doctor. Mobile phones are already the ubiquitous mobile device and, increasingly, provide a ubiquitous Internet connection. Just like the best camera is the one that you have with you, more and more hardware functionality, such as innovative input devices and sensors, combined with software and a data connection will piggyback the mobile phone, rather than try to compete as a separate device. Health care will be a major benefactor. 3. Money transfer beyond mobile banking. The mobile phone will replace your wallet. Not only will you be able to manage your money via your mobile phone and use it to pay for products in authorized retail outlets both online and offline, but mobile money transfer will extend to peer-to-peer. Everyone will become a walking 'cash' register. 4. Battery technology will finally catch up. The combination of new types of battery technology and less power hungry chips will lead to mobile phones, even under the strain of all of this new hardware, software and data functionality, being able to stay powered up for more than a day. Perhaps days. Evidenced by the recent Netbook phenomenon, with 7+ hours becoming the norm for a low cost 10inch laptop. 5. People will share more and more personal information. Both explicit e.g. photo and video uploads or status updates, and implicit data. Location sharing via GPS (in the background) is one current example of implicit information that can be shared, but others include various sensory data captured automatically via the mobile phone e.g. weather, traffic and air quality conditions, health and fitness-related data, spending habits etc. Some of this information will be shared privately and one-to-one, some anonymously and in aggregate, and some increasingly made public or shared with a user's wider social graph. Companies will provide incentives, both at the service level or financially, in exchange for users sharing various personal data. Steve O'Hear Editor, last100 / Contributing Editor, TechCrunch Europe | @sohear | last100.com BY NC ND 31
  32. 1. Device makers will continue to drive the mobile industry and operators will become more traditional service providers competing on cost and network quality. 2. Brands will use apps to drive hundreds of millions of dollars in sales. Apps will become a core revenue generator for businesses. 3. Location will become THE core technology to mobile devices. It will become more ubiquitous on the device than any other feature. nearly every user interaction with mobile devices will become location aware. 4. Location based advertising will explode. The classic starbucks example will be forgotten. That starbucks example is driven by a mindset stuck in the web - pop-up ads, banner ads. Apps and the mobile web will be location aware, and most mobile advertising will be informed and targeted by location. 5. Venture capitalists will begin to make major strategic investments in mobile app companies in 2010 (like the 2009 investments in Shazam, Smule, etc). Big brands will acquire small apps that enhance their product offering (eg Amazon & SnapTell) Ted Morgan CEO Skyhook Wireless @tedmorgan skyhookwireless.com BY NC ND 32
  33. 1. Cellular voice dies -- it truly becomes another form of data on next generation data networks 2. Location awareness -- devices truly leverage location and tie together our tasks with our current location 3. Voice recognition -- moves from niche usage to a mainstream input option 4. Connectivity lines blur -- devices and apps will seamlessly function offline nearly as well as online 5. Handhelds -- fewer laptops will be carried as more capable handheld devices will mature Kevin C. Tofel Managing Editor at jkOnTheRun, a GigaOM network site covering mobile technology @KevinCTofel jkOnTheRun.com BY NC ND 33
  34. 1. Convergence of virtual and physical payments: mobile payments will significantly replace physical currency. Within this trend I predict the replication of financial services from the past, onto cloud- based systems that can be managed by mobile devices, be they loans, savings, payments and transfers. 2. Convergence of mobile network and data services: IP technology will replace the need for cell towers. Within this trend I predict that ISP and web based services (including Google) will inherit the current subscribers of many mobile networks of today. 3. Convergence of utility payment: our payment for services will move away from separate contracts from service providers, to combined solutions placing data alongside gas, electricity and water. I predict single subscriptions to data services from commodity suppliers, supplemented with personalisation tools that suit our precise requirements at any given moment. 4. Convergence of mobile and online platforms: the emergence of personal, unified cloud- based platforms that are accessible from any machine and screen. 5. Convergence of physical, augmented and virtual reality: augmented and virtual reality will become an increasingly standard method for search, discovery, gaming, eyesight, healthcare, retail, entertainment and most other experiences in life. Location and other contextual functions will grow so our 2D mobile experiences become 3D and 'real'. To such an extent that the prefixes 'augmented' and 'virtual' will eventually become redundant. Jonathan MacDonald Founder, JME @jmacdonald jme.net BY NC ND 34
  35. [mobile social development]
  36. 1. Mobiles manifesting AI - fulfilling, at last, the vision of "personal digital assistants" 2. Powerful, easily wearable head-mounted accessories: audio, visual, and more 3. Mobiles as gateways into vivid virtual reality - present-day AR is just the beginning 4. Mobiles monitoring personal health - the second brains of our personal networks 5. Mobiles as universal remote controls for life - a conductor's baton as much as a viewing portal David Wood Principal at Delta Wisdom @dw2 dw2blog.com/ BY NC ND 36
  37. 01:23:51 finish line 01:23:49 Mobile Networks: Imagine mobile networks without voice services. The switch from 3g standards into all IP network infrastructure (4g) will turn mobile operators to broadband providers, decrease the revenues of cable companies, increase profits of voip services and spawn a new range of mobile services, mobile apps and even mobile devices. Mobile Internet: Internet usage through mobile devices will overtake desktop/pc usage based on massive adaptation of mobile internet in the developing world. Mobile Payment: the mobile is the credit card. Mobile Entertainment: Games, Music and Movies will find new formats on mobile devices especially through the rise of augmented reality technology. A handful of startups in this sector will manage to attract significant audiences. Mobile Hub: Laptop schlepping will be over cause your phone will fulfill your computing needs. Smartphones will become as powerful as laptops and take over the laptop and notebook market. With an increasing number of peripherals from keyboards to displays to 3d glasses the mobile will become the power processor of your life. Don't loose it! Michael Breidenbruecker ceo RjDj @byzo BY NC ND rjdj.me 37
  38. 1. Use cases: Phones are the primary computer and tool for connecting and sharing with friends (= more email or messages initiated from mobile phones to friends (not work) than from computer or netbooks) 2. Network: Wifi deployed widely (everywhere: at home, in restaurants, in the street, etc.) 3. Platforms: consolidation of platforms, may be only 2 or 3 gather 80% of units shipped 4. Hardware: significant advance in batteries Henri Moissinac head of mobile, Facebook @moissinac facebook.com BY NC ND 38
  39. 1. The Operator Dichotomy: Mobile operators will clearly separate into service companies (service pipes) and access companies (bit pipes). Very few multi-nationals will control assets to both services and access. 2. OEMs as the service inventory brokers: Handset OEMs will move to exploit one of their few unique strengths; service distribution inventory on-device and therefore monetise from retailing and managing services at point-of-purchase and during in-life use. 3. Application Mega-retailing: Retailing and merchandising of mobile apps will evolve in terms of segmentation, regionalisation and sophistication, and far more so than mobile phone retailing. A large chunk of the money in apps will go towards distribution and retailing, much like the book business is today. 4. Service Analytics: The Most Underhyped opportunity. Comprehensive analytics on devices, services, networks and users will create major new revenue streams; from monetising competitive intelligence to spawning new revenue models such as OEMs being paid based on device performance. 5. Open Source Economics Mastered: Multi-billion firms will realise that 'influence is power' in the world of open source and will either acquire the small 10-strong professional services firms or re- orient their business culture towards upstream tribes, rather than downstream troops. Andreas Constantinou Ph.D., Research Director, VisionMobile @andreascon visionmobile.com/blog BY NC ND 39
  40. 1. The mobile lifestyle truly goes beyond "carrying a mobile handset all the time". The next decade will see the first true always-on/connected generation - "99% messaging, media and entertainment, 1% voice"-kind of mobile users. Mobile usage drivers are as follows: 1) (people-to-people) messaging, very media and social in nature including text, MMS, real-time web and social networks, 2) media – photos, video and music, gaming, 3) info/search or queries, 4) voice. Voice usage will be very minimal when compared to messaging, and messaging and media go hand-in-hand with media usage driven by personal messaging. 2. Control totally shifts from the MNO and into the ecosystem. MNOs become a positive member of and contributor to the ecosystem and the developer community. The MNO extends and offers their mobile/wireless infrastructure as services on the Internet (Infrastructure as a Services). 3. Wireless networks reaches sufficient speeds and efficiencies that minimizes and almost eliminate most of the connection latencies that currently degrades the mobile web usage experience, resulting in an increased positive perception of mobile web and allowing for mobile web applications that complement and/or rival local/native mobile apps. HSPA+ becomes the predominant type of wireless network during the first half of the decade with LTE on the later part. Data plans go from unlimited pricing, to handset- specific (attempt to maximize revenue) pricing and tiered-pricing (to force users to use less data), back to unlimited (once networks become more efficient). 4. Distribution is 80% Smart-phones and 20% Feature-phones, worldwide. Feature-phones have 80% of Smart-phone characteristics. Even in emerging regions such as Africa the business models is figured out to allow for "data" to take off; but it will take to the end of the decade for this. Most device manufacturers trying to copy Apple introduce their own OSes only to fail and instead go with Android due to economics - by leveraging Google's R&D and BOM, are able to deliver a complete platform from OS, developer and ecosystem support in the most cost-effective way. Fragmentation problem continues from apps to web but reduced to a small number of platforms. Java ME focuses on Feature-phones. HTML and scripting with the browser/web-runtimes and handset APIs evolve and get standardized allowing for web applications that when combined with fast networks truly rival and/or complement local/ native applications. App Stores offer both local/native and mobile web apps. There are many App Stores which are easily discovered and selected by users – which app store to use becomes a user-preference/choice. 5. Messaging becomes the top application. Search/queries and apps in general benefit from the digital and physical worlds merging together, thanks to the mobile handset; awareness of our surroundings via proximity and other sensors such as geo-location allows for high-definition user-context. Super-imposition of information on top of real word imagery (Augmented Reality) and interactions with physical objects via the handset (to learn more about such objects) becomes a common tool and exercise. AR becomes standardized and absorbed into the web browser as a View, similar to today's "street vs. map view". We start to see the initial phase of the 5th screen, "visors" that work together with the mobile handset extending digital augmentation from the handset screen (the 4th screen) onto "eye-glasses" (the 5th screen). The handset is the personal gateway, between personal sensors and services and applications and to the Internet. The hybrid application (80% local driving richness and experience and 20% generic/related web-based information) becomes the standard mobile app design pattern. C. Enrique Ortiz Mobile Technologist, blogger | @eortiz | cenriqueortiz.com BY NC ND 40
  41. [hackable devices]
  42. 1. 5x more sensors in everyday life; combination of wearable sensors, remote sensors and sensors in your phone 2. Operators build and market their own mobile devices competing with OEMs 3. Wireless charging becomes the standard and is available everywhere 4. Your super-modular mobile phone will be powered by a cloud based OS 5. You will travel to go to a no-airwaves National Park; the first cellular reserve Raj Singh Mobile Enthusiast @raazzzin rajansingh.com BY NC ND 42
  43. 1. Web4 Metadata for All Data: Mobile transforms the Web into Web4: billions of mobile devices as sensors in a sensor network connect the Web to real people (Who), places (Where), objects (What), and times (When), analyzable into vectors of attention, interests, activities, and events. The masses of global data are no longer abstract bits in databases, but are made intelligible with real world metadata about the contexts in which they are produced, shared, consumed, and transformed. 2. MyWorld/OurWorld/TheirWorld: Web4 transforms our relationship to the world, each other, and ourselves. As every physical entity (person, place, object) becomes connected and programmable, and every digital entity is contextualized and can communicate with the real world, the now visible and permanent accretions of human attention and activity transform how we communicate with each other and understand the world around us. We see the datasphere mapped onto the world, and the world as it exists in the Web, from our own personalized point of view, from that of our friends and those we follow, and from the vantage point of others we do not know, and at scales from personal, to social, to global. The mobile phone is a prosthetic connecting us to our collective embodied intelligence in real time and across time and space: large scale information filtering, summarization, discovery, and recommendation become basic modes of engagement with ourselves, each other, and the world. 3. Mobile Transforms Global Business: Commerce is transformed as every place, object, person, and process is embedded in Web4. Mobile commerce becomes long tail, real time, and real world on a global scale. Location-awareness, mobile social networks, mobile transactions, and the Internet of Things bring about a new industrial revolution. Business processes are reengineered as mobile sensing, communication, and processing make supply and the organization of labor and markets real time, contextual, and adaptive. Human, computational, and physical resources can be assembled and integrated in real time to solve problems and create value: context-aware mobile sensors/effectors, crowdsourcing, smart mobs, and chains social networks are seen as the new drivers of value production. 4. The World Sees and Hears Itself: The Web and we get eyes and ears at global scale: billions of mobile phones with sensors and HD and 3D imaging, audio, and video combined with large scale real time filtering, communication, and recommendation technology transform news, entertainment, communication, education, work, and play. We create and use collective maps of human attention, interest, and activity in real time mapped to an ever-evolving 4 dimensional model of the world: “the Web of the World”. Billions of mobile media datastreams indexed and correlated with Web4 metadata show us and connect us to what is happening, has happened, and may happen all over the world. 5. User Data Banking: If user data is the currency of the information economy, then where are the banks? By 2020, mobile data and transactions connected to Web4 metadata create massive new value by radically transforming our ability to understand where and when who is interested in what. Given regulatory and societal pressures, the ownership and control of user data is placed in our hands. We gain control of what we make and do online and in the world. New legal and technical structures change the terms of service for the mobile ecosystem bringing about a range of new value creation and services based on the ownership, control, aggregation, and exchange of personal data (e.g., searches, interests, location, communications, social media, transactions, health data, etc.) by users and trusted intermediaries. Marc Davis Chief Scientist and Co-Founder, Invention Arts | @marcedavis | inventionarts.com BY NC ND 43
  44. 1. Unofficial currencies gain power. 2. Login will replace SIM cards. 3. Some nations will grant its people the right to a cellphone. 4. Appearance of a massively destructive synchronized mobile virus. 5. North Korea will join the Web. David Harper Co-founder & CEO, PercentMobile @davidharper percentmobile.com BY NC ND 44
  45. 1. mobile web traffic surpasses desktop web traffic 2. mobile apps revenue surpasses desktop apps revenue 3. augmented reality becomes standard 4. no more mobile screen it becomes contact lenses, embedded in reading/ sunglasses or projected on walls and objects 5. we finally solve the battery life issue and mobiles can stay up for a week of intense use Loic Le Meur Founder & CEO of Seesmic / Founder of LeWeb.net conference / blogger @loic seesmic.com BY NC ND 45
  46. [no airwaves]
  47. 1. Smart grids 2. Tradeoff of mobile information vs privacy vs services 3. Innovation from emerging markets 4. 3D content driven by movies like avatar 5. 'open' including net neutrality Ajit Jaokar founder futuretext @AjitJaokar futuretext.com BY NC ND 47
  48. 1. Mobiles and Netbooks begin their world domination path as browser- driven apparatuses 2. Home apps like tv programming and other wired appliances are operated from mobiles in big scale 3. Android takes over iPhone as its cloud features embrace social web better than apple 4. Mobile advertising revenues dent internet ad revenues by end of year. It is a business very much rolling out. 5. U.S. mobile startups attempt conquering mother mobile homeland, europe. Inma Martinez entrepreneur, investor, strategist @inma_martinez stradbrokeadvisors.com BY NC ND 48
  49. 1. Ubiquity of mobile broadband will lead to an explosion of connected devices (à la Kindle, not just phones) and M2M services (machines to machine services, without a human behind the device). In 10 year, more devices/machines connected to the mobile network than humans 2. Truly context aware mobile computing, where the context is far richer than just location and personalization and recommendations are ubiquitous 3. Convergence of desktop and mobile web into one web, everything moving to the cloud and the end of native mobile applications and applications stores 4. Explosion of mobile video applications including mobile video communications 5. Augmented reality and mixed reality services/applications: pervasive services that seamlessly combine the physical and digital World Carlos Domingo Director of Internet and Multimedia & Director of the Barcelona R&D center at Telefonica @carlosdomingo unpocodetodo.com BY NC ND 49
  50. Micro Manage. Micro-payments and proximity-based bartering replace traditional revenue streams. Beyond Barcoding. RFID and embedded personal tagging bring big brother home. Observe, Conserve. Devices track and manage energy and consumption using home automation and personal tracking. A Mass-ing Data: Personal devices sense and report real-time services from emotion to temperature, shopping and more. i Synch, therefore I am: Human synching to self allows any device within proximity to automatically personalize. Objective: Object-oriented "personal packets" of data become the norm as identity and privacy are the #1 focus. Kelly Goto Principal Gotomedia @go2girl gotomedia.com BY NC ND 50
  51. 1. A Web OS based hackable phone will give you access to everything using Web Tech - The Palm Pre has been the Grandfather. Look for the release of the OVI Apps SDK to be released this year. 2. 3D Displays - It´s SciFi, it´s happening and you won´t look like an idiot wearing your 3D glasses watching Avatar. 3. The Cloud moves to the edge. Not every media item that is produced on the phone can and will be pushed back to the cloud but instead stays on your or somebody else's phone´s Terabyte HDD. 4. Mobile Payment. It´s coming and it´s coming hard. Think mobile2mobile payment. Paypal for your mobile phone. 5. Connected phones packed with sensors and crunching power will disrupt all kinds of sensor-based business models - Think Weather Prediction, Traffic probing, Pollution sensing, etc. pp. Felix Petersen Head of Social Activities PM at Nokia / Founder at Plazes.com @fiahless plazes.com BY NC ND 51
  52. [pervasive privacy]
  53. 1. App Stores will start to support applications for Embedded Devices - In 2010 we will see the emergence of applications for set-top boxes, netbooks, refrigerators, car navigation systems etc. Selected app stores will support these applications. 2. Decline of Native App Store Development - By 2011 native application development for app stores will start losing importance. 3. Carriers & Data - By 2013 the market of consumers willing to pay "more" for mobile internet data plans will reach saturation. 4. Mobile & Gaming - By 2014 browser-based gaming on embedded devices - including mobile - will have displaced much of the current console market in the Western World. 5. Mobile & TV/Home Entertainment - By 2016 browser-based entertainment/TV devices - relying on search - will have displaced television as the focal living room device in most of the Western World. Matthaus Krzykowski Editor, VentureBeat @matthausk BY NC ND venturebeat.com 53
  54. More fluid use of input mechanisms beyond the keyboard. We're seeing this right now with Google Goggles, Voice Search, AR (which is about location+bearing+camera), but what about proximity, use of ambient sound, time-of-day, etc? Mobile as prime means of access online. Mind you I said this 10 years ago. Improved power distribution: boring but necessary, battery technology needs to get much better to support more capable devices, or we'll start to see new ways to power handsets. Bandwidth gets higher; who knows what we'll do with it, but it'll happen. Lots of second-order effects of mobile on society. No-one predicted the loosening of time and space that Mimi Ito has noted. Similarly, what happens to our social arrangements when every photo can be face-recognised, geolocated and individuals tracked? What happens to shops when every price can be compared? What happens to conversation when it's all recorded, or any fact is a 5-second voice-search away from being checked? Tom Hume Managing Director of Future Platforms @twhume tomhume.org/ BY NC ND 54
  55. 1. Visual search - point your mobile phone camera and retrieve contextual information anywhere of anything 2. New sonic experiences - Augmented reality, 3D sound, will create new mobile audio formats and end user experiences 3. Mobile social networks - social media designed specifically for mobile use 4. Mobile reception in airplanes will allow not just voice but will be the in-flight Internet access solution 5. Convergence and integration - ISP's, fixed line providers, and mobile operators offering convergence packages, integrated pricing structures, and reformed roaming fee regimes Atau Tanaka Director of Culture Lab @atautanaka ataut.net BY NC ND 55
  56. 1. Mobile Augmented Reality (via wearable displays) 2. Ubiquitous Computing (everything wired) 3. Artificial Life + Intelligent Agents (holographic personalities) 4. Personal Biometric Sensors (cyborg 101) 5. Patent, Privacy, and Property Wars (system breakdown) Robert Rice CEO Neogence Enterprises @robertrice curiousraven.com BY NC ND 56
  57. Wow - time to take a deep breath - and get involved!
  58. Take a look at some of the concepts we found striking... ...is this where we want to go? join the conversation: #m2020 BY NC ND 58
  59. take a look yourself! 3D connected objects health monitoring mobile social development real-time cocreation 3D content connection managers HSPA+ / LTE mobile social networks rise of new device brands context aware mobile computing indoor smartness mobile social software 3D displays sense networks contextual information provision in-flight internet access 3D sound mobile wallet service analytics contvertising (content infrastructure a as Services advanced batteries advertising) more mobile IP than PC service bundling innovation in developing all IP network infrastructure convergence of mobile network morph service pipes countries and data services ambient intelligence multiple dynamic data smart agents 2.0 convergence of utility payment intelligent agents android rules nano smart grids cross-platform services internet of things app convergence networked urbanism smart phones everywhere data footprint ownership lifeflow application mega-retailing location based advertising new business models smart pipes data shadows data structure services location-aware objects new input & display technologies apps smarter middleware Decline of Native App Store location-awareness tasks next 3 billion apps & services social marketing intelligence Development location-based social networking nomadic enterprises apps everywhere software-as-a-service (SaaS) digital syllogomania mainstream mobile advertising non-human data apps for embedded devices swarm disconnectivity mashup interfaces oneweb artificial intelligence documented radiation & brain messaging rules tablet devices damage open ecosystem artificial life mixed reality terabyte HDD driving locks open source business models augmented reality mobile advertising goes truely connected users embedded devices (TV/gaming patent, privacy, and property mainstream back-up & storage consoles) wars (system breakdown) tv apps (remote control) bluetooth implants emotional recommendations mobile browser rules ubiquitous connectivity personal area networks enabling new economy mobile commerce browser-based entertainment personal biometric sensors universal remote control browser-based gaming environmental monitoring mobile contacts lifestream vendor relationship management pervasive computing integration explosion of mobile video apps business disruption pervasive privacy visual search free devices mobile content recommendation bye bye CDMA platform consolidation voice recognition free networks mobile data portability challenging technophilic dreams premium content voip google mobile elections cheaper data green phones mobile information tradeoff primary computer wifi deployment complex data sharing hackable devices mobile political campaign privacy & protection conflicts
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  62. this work is licensed under a Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This work and its contents are licensed under a Creative Commons Licence. The copyright statement we require you to include when you use our material is: © Copyright 2010 Rudy De Waele / m-trends.org & Steffen Becker / dotopen.com You are free: • to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: • Attribution — You must attribute the work to Rudy De Waele at http://m-trends.org • Noncommercial — You may not use this work for commercial purposes. • No Derivative Works — You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. special thanks to steffen becker for the visualisation thanks to all who contributed to this document, may your wisdom spread as fast as light!