this presentation discuss that the energy mix policy should be based on the needs of a nation to the best interest of the people. the competitiveness of domestic primary energy, affordability to the people, infrastructure and priority of a state. that's the essence of energy independence and sovereignty

1. Reassess Energy
Transition in Indonesia
Sampe L. Purba
Universitas Pertahanan - Ph.D Cand., Global Energy
Professional
Presented in Webinar Interactive Discussion Energy Academy Indonesia
Wednesday , 3 June 2020
Jun-20 1

2. Agenda Question to discuss
1. How realistic is the concept and
implementation of Renewable
Energy that expecting
affordability, reliability and
sustainability
2. Is this realistic to expect
reaching the target RE of 23%
by 2025 when the historical
economy projection below
expectation
3. What is the appropriate system
and stimulant scheme
Jun-20 2

3. Renewable Energy at Affordable Price,
Reliable and Sustainable. Is this realistic ?
✓ Trilemma Energy ➔ Priority and optimum point
Affordable, Reliable, Sustainable
➢ Cost Structure : Fixed Capex, Fixed Opex, Variable Opex.
→contract terms, duration, volume
➢ Reliability : Base load, follower, intermittent, dual sources, power
storage, sensitivity to weather (wind, solar, current), grid integration
➢Sustainability : Feedstock (Biomass and Waste)
Output ( CO2 reduction)
Off taker and Consumers
Jun-20 3
1
Live is an option : You cannot have all things at the same time

4. Cost structure of several power generation primary –
energy-related-source
• Different cost structure,
drives commerciality
- PPA Terms
- Model Financing
- Off taker
- Take or Pay
- Volume
Source : Levelized Cost of Electricity Indonesia, IESR 2019
Jun-20 4
Cost Electricity
Cent/ KwH

5. Reliability -1 (access
and availability)
Jun-20 5Source : Levelized Cost of Electricity Indonesia, IESR 2019
- Value Chain
Infrastructures
- Efficiency
- Sites required
- Start up - Power
losses
UpFront
Investment cost

6. Reliability Issues -2
- Baseload, back up or
intermittent
- Battery Storage
- Grid integration
- Power losses
Jun-20 6
Source : IEA 2017, Getting Wind and Sun on to the grid
Technology do
matters

7. Sustainability Issues
Jun-20 7
✓ Feedstock continuity
-planted
-seasonal
✓Output
- Biomass → O2 vs CO2
- Fossil Based → carbon
capture technology
✓Off taker/ Consumers
- Energy issues or
Environment (PLTSa –City
Waste) –Tipping fee
- Economy Price or Subsidy
called for ?

8. How Realistic is our Energy Mix Target
✓Based Assumption on Renewable Energy Formulation
➢ Economy Growth (size, structure and strength)
➢ Demand for electricity growth
➢ Regulatory framework (National Energy Policy, Govt Reg, Pres Order etc)
✓Ends – Ways – Means
➢ Ends : Sufficient available energy at affordable price
➢ Ways : Electricity Infrastructures, Primary Energy to utilize
➢ Means : Regulatory, Fiscal, Security and Better Bureaucratic Services
✓Competitiveness of Fossil Based Energy is a reality
➢ Availability of Primary energy
➢ Existing Power Generator
➢ Price of Energy per KwH
Jun-20 8
2

9. Potrait of Our Energy Mix
• Existing Electricity System
Power Generation
• Geographically wide spread
• Imbalances of
Infrastructures – Primary
Energy – Demand for energy
Jun-20 9

10. Pattern and Trend of Global Primary Energy Across the region
• Fossil (Coal, Gas, Oil) dominate
across the region
• Trend and pattern grows steadily
• Asia : Dominant using Coal, Oil
and Gas (Competitiveness,
Availability, Multiplier effect)
• Europe balance (Nuclear,
Renewables dan Hydro) → Energy
transition is technology matter.
Affordability and availability no
more issues
• US, Canada maintaining a balance
combination of Fossil and and
Renewable Energy → Realistic
Jun-20 10Source : BP Statistical Review, 2019

11. Ends – Ways - Means
• A sound energy mix
policy has to take into
account :
✓ Existing Power
Generation, Technical and
Economical age
✓Utilization of domestics
Primary Energy
✓Gradual Shifting to
increase proportion of RE
Jun-20 11
ENDS : An affordable energy price, accessible and Reliable.
Sustainability to RE adjusted as necessary
Irwandi Arif, 2019

12. Is Fiscal Stimulant for RE an urgency ?
✓Priority Nation Economy to handle – in new normal covid related matters
- Projection of tough economy recovery
- Limited Source of Revenue and Fiscal Instruments
- social safety net, healthcare and people rural and urban economy
✓Electricity Supply And Demand
- Grid connectivity
- Available Primary Energy Source
- Demand for electricity at present state
✓Refocussing of RE Program
- In line and adjusted with the local community needs
- Development of RE in remote Off grid maritime economy cluster
- Market Protection for infant industry and maintain level playing field
Jun-20 12
3

13. Price - The Things that Matter
✓Fossil Energy (Coal, Gas)
- Indonesia can play a role
in global energy
- Competitive Price
- High multiplier effect
(employment, State and
Regional Revenue, Services
industry and feedstock)
✓Renewable Energy
- A responsible global
society
- Source diversificationSource : Levelized Cost of Electricity Indonesia, IESR 2019
Jun-20 13

14. Our Electricity
• Demand For Electricity
highly correlates with
Economy Growth
• Gov’t Assignment Scheme
only yield outcome when
in line with urgency and
relevant needs
• A Proper Subsidy Policy:
(Corporation/ IPP, Tariff,
Consumer)
• PT PLN Corp better to
focus on expanding
transmission network to
create market, and
enhance its reliability.
Jun-20 14

15. Energy Mix:
Refocus and Prioritize Quality
✓RE to develop in line with
available local energy, electricity
infrastructures and demographic
spread
✓To integrate with economy
cluster.
✓Inter Ministerial and Corporation
collaboration to enhance
✓To Regulate the Market and
Players→ Economy of scale and
fair competition among the same
level playing field
Jun-20 15

16. Concluding Remarks
✓ The Energy Policy should be based on urgency and priority of the
nation by taking into account our primary energy competitiveness,
availability of access and People Affordability
✓Limiting access to market and financing for the sake of sustainability
by Developing Countries should not dictate us in formulating and
implementing the best thing for our people
✓The CoVid 19 effect has reduced the financing resources and fiscal
instruments. The Government will act and optimize the best
combination of policy and measures
✓The Government has been on the right track by prioritizing and
refocusing Renewable Energy programs based on quality and benefit
to the people over quantity
Jun-20 16

17. Thank You
Namaste
Horas
• Energy Professional : Finance, Legal and
Commercial
• Brief Description : Sampe L. Purba, has been experiencing
30 years of assignment within private, semi and
Government Institution. He held several positions such as
Senior Advisor Expert to Minister, high managerial level in
BPMIGAS/ SKK Migas, and Government Auditor.
• As professional, he once also served as Committee for
Investment and Risk Management in Public listed
corporation. With international institution he had an
experience as Short Term Consultant to The World Bank.
• Currently he serves as Senior Advisor to Minister of Energy
and Mineral Resources, RI
• His formal education background is Accounting, Finance
and Law. He is an alumni of Lemhannas – A National
Leadership and Policy Course. Currently he pursues his
Doctoral study in Energy Policy Management in Indonesia
Defense University.
• Mr. Purba is holder of License certificates in the field of
Legal Attorney, Audit, Accounting and Taxation Services.
Sampe L. Purba
Instagram.com/sampe.purba
linkedin.com/in/sampepurba
Twitter.com/sampepurba
Independent.academia.e
du/SampePurba
Jun-20 17

18. Back UP
Jun-20 18

19. 22,1%
3,2%
2,2%
2,1%
14,1%
3,0%
1,3%12,7%
21,4%
8,3%
2,2%
7,3%
US
Germany
Kazakhstan
Poland
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Middle East & Africa
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Others
Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 :
Indonesia’s coal reserve accounts for 2.2% of world’s
coal reserve
RESOURCES 128.06 Billion Tonnes (41 Bt U/G)
RESERVES 28.45 Billion Tonnes
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
Source: Geological Agency of Indonesia 2016
Indonesia
Indonesia Coal Resources and Reserves
Jun-20 19

20. Batubara
• Rencana Produksi Batubara
Indonesia di atas target KEN
• Sebagian terbesar dari produksi
untuk tujuan ekspor
• China dan India adalah importir
Utama Batubara Indonesia
Point to note :
✓ Penggunaan Batubara mendapatkan penentangan dari
berbagai negara atas nama climate change
✓ Batubara masih merupakan sumber energi primer
andalan murah dan utama dalam kelistrikan Indonesia
✓ Penggunaan batu bara sebagai sumber energi primer
dan devisa di Indonesia masih merupakan keniscayaan
Jun-20 20

21. Indonesia Energy Mix & Electricity Mix
Energy Mix 2015-2050 Electricity Mix 2018-2025
2018 2025
Source: General Planning for National
Energy (RUEN) 2015-2050
Source: Electricity Supply Business Plan
(RUPTL PLN) 2018-2025
62%
1%
7%
5%
0%
14%
7% 4%
54%
0%
10%
12%
2%
9%
13% 0%
Coal impor Water Geothermal Other EBT Gas LNG Oil
Jun-20 21

22. Potret Ekonomi Makro Era Covid 19
Jun-20 22

23. Cost Structure of Generation Cost
Jun-20 23

24. Glossary
Jun-20 24wikipedia

25. Power Plant
Jun-20 25wikipedia