SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  31
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Combinatorial
Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson
Economics, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
“Prediction Markets”                  Market


   Search       Spot        Speculative        Matching


    Future       Currency      Bet        Stock      Bond


    Insurance      Hedging       Decision       Gambling


                       Context              Direct
To Evaluate Institutions

                 Institution A


When They Use                    Compare Quality
Similar Inputs                     Of Outputs

                 Institution B
Collective Forecasting
                         Forecasts
                       On Requested
                          Topics
   User
Contributions          User Scores

                       Engagement
Issues
Input: Contributions             Output: Forecasts, Scores
  What info can express?           What questions can ask?
  How account for costs?           How account for value?
  Who let in where?                Use or validate system?
  Enough Incentives                Should adjust outputs?
     T-shirts enough?              Who let see outputs?
     Zero-sum scoring?
                                   Sabotage & manipulation
  Limit Costs                      Legal, P.R. risks?
     Awkward Interface
     Wait for offer accept
     Retribution
Collective Forecasting Questions

                    Consensus
What exactly is                 What exactly are
my influence?                   my incentives?


      My Forecast               My Score
How exactly do
 I express my        Truth
    opinion?
Editing Interface Is Transparent
                           If my edit increases
 I directly
                          the consensus chance
              Consensus
change the
                           of true state, I win.
consensus
                           If decreases, I lose.


  My Edits                 My Score


               Truth
Issues
Input: Contributions             Output: Forecasts, Scores
  What info can express?           What questions can ask?
  How account for costs?           How account for value?
  Who let in where?                Use or validate system?
  Enough Incentives                Should adjust outputs?
     T-shirts enough?              Who let see outputs?
     Zero-sum scoring?
                                   Sabotage & manipulation
  Limit Costs                      Legal, P.R. risks?
     Awkward Interface
     Wait for offer accept
     Retribution
Factors Might Influence Sales
                                E[Sales|Factor]
   Economy recovers fast?          P[Factor]

   Competitors introduce new version?
   We do big promotion?
   We lower prices? They lower prices?
   We add distribution channel?
   We add feature F? They add feature F?
   Our defect rate very low?
Combo Betting
  Win    Place   Show

  Not    Not      Not




   Win
      Place
                 Show

        All outcomes    Yoopick Facebook Application
Sport Finals Tickets
UEFA       Austria   Croatia     Czech     Germany    Poland   Portugal   Switzerl.   Turkey
EURO
2008
France

                     Greece v.
Greece                                   Ticket if Greece in Finals
                      Croatia
Italy

Netherl.

Romania

Russia

                                             Actual
Spain
                                             Game
Sweden
Politimetrics.com


US President Decision Markets
PAM Scenario                                                               Trade
                                              Return to Focus                                          ?
                                                                                              Update

                                                               Payoffs: If SAum3 03105-125&      Ave. pay
                                                      Select New Price IQcs4 03 <85 IQcs4 03 >85 <85 65%
                                                      Max Up       95.13% +$34.74 -$85.18       -$19.72




                                               Buy
        Saudi Arabian                                 10% Up       68.72%   +$2.74  -$3.28       -$1.07
        Economic Health
                                                      You Pick      65 %    +1.43   -2.04        +0.34
      125
                15 30
                      70 65                           No Trade     62.47%    $0.00   $0.00        $0.00
            100 40 35
         94
      100
                                                      10% Dn       56.79%   -$2.61 +$2.74        -$1.12
                    35 25




                                               Sell
                          30 35                       Exit Issue   48.54% -$15.34 +$26.02        -$6.31
                    10 10
       75
                                                      Max Dn       22.98% -$120.74 +$96.61      -$22.22
            1   2   3    412
            03 03 03 03 04 04




                                                                                                       ?
            Return to Form                  Execute a Trade
            If US military involvement in Saudi Arabia in 3rd Quarter 2003 is not
            between 105 and 125, this trade is null and void. Otherwise, if
            Iraq civil stability in 4th Quarter 2003 is below 85, then I will receive
            $1.43, but if it is not below 85, I will pay $2.04.
                        Abort trade if price has changed?                       Execute
Imagine A Dashboard                              Ave. Worth:
                                                  $12,459

                             Us        Them A    Them B
 Base Price                  $240      $187      $320
 Ship Date                   May ’09   Mar ’09   July ’09
 Features     Autozoop       38%       69%       15%
              Fizzywoo       59%       8%        43%
 Unit Sales   Total          120K      148K      97K
              Base model     82K       65K       88K
              Via internet   43K       12K       73K
 Promotion    Magazine       $30K      $50K      $3K
              Circulars      $45       $34K      $39K
Ask For Detail                                        Ave.Worth:
                                                       $12,459

                           Us           Them A        Them B
 Base Price                $240         $187          $320
 Ship Date                 May ’09      Mar ’09       July ’09
 Features     Autozoop     38%          69%           15%
              Fizzywoo Ship Date
                            59%         8%            43%
                Them B
 Unit Sales   Total        120K         148K          97K
                 2009                          2010
              Base model     82K         65K          88K
              Via internetM A43K J J A S O N D
                     JF       M          12K          73K
 Promotion    Magazine     $30K         $50K          $3K
              Circulars    $45          $34K          $39K
Make An Edit                                        Ave. Worth:
                                                     $12,459

                             Us        Them A       Them B
 Base Price                  $240      $187         $320
 Ship Date                   May ’09   Mar ’09      July ’09
 Features     Autozoop       40%       69%          15%
              Fizzywoo       59%       8%             43%
                                        If We Have Autozoop,
 Unit Sales   Total          120K      148K you gain $53
                                                      97K
              Base model     82K       65K if We Don’t88K It
                                        But            Have
                                          You lose $78. OK?
              Via internet   43K       12K            73K
 Promotion    Magazine       $30K      $50K         $3K
              Circulars      $45       $34K         $39K
Make an Assumption                       Scenario:   Ave. Worth:
                                           15%        $10,724

                             Us        Them A        Them B
 Base Price                  $240      $187          $253
                                                     Assume Mar
 Ship Date                   Apr ’09   Mar ’09
 Features     Autozoop       38%       69%           4%
              Fizzywoo       59%       8%            13%
 Unit Sales   Total          120K      148K          107K
              Base model     82K       65K           94K
              Via internet   43K       12K           84K
 Promotion    Magazine       $30K      $50K          $17K
              Circulars      $45       $34K          $49K
Add 2nd Assumption                         Scenario:   Ave. Worth:
                                             2.3%       $10,982

                             Us          Them A        Them B
 Base Price                  $240        $187          $253
                                                       Assume Mar
 Ship Date                   Apr ’09     Mar ’09
 Features     Autozoop       38%         69%           4%
              Fizzywoo       59%         8%            13%
 Unit Sales   Total          185K        148K          107K
              Base model     97K         65K           94K
              Via internet   78K         12K           84K
                             Assume $40K $50K
 Promotion    Magazine                                 $17K
              Circulars      $45         $34K          $49K
Edit As Before                             Scenario:   Ave. Worth:
                                             2.3%       $10,724

                             Us          Them A        Them B
 Base Price                  $240        $187          $253
                                                       Assume Mar
 Ship Date                   Apr ’09     Mar ’09
 Features     Autozoop       42%         69%           4%
              Fizzywoo       59%         8%             13%
                                          If we have Autozoop,
 Unit Sales   Total          185K        148K you gain $53
                                                        107K
              Base model     97K         65K if we don’t94K it
                                          But            have
                                            You lose $78. OK?
              Via internet   78K         12K            84K
                             Assume $40K $50K
 Promotion    Magazine                                 $17K
              Circulars      $45         $34K          $49K
Combo Market Maker Best of 5 Mechs
                      3 subjects, 7 prices, 5 minutes                         6 subjects, 256 prices, 5 minutes
                                                                                     8 Variables = 256 States
                            3 Variables = 8 States
                                                                      1.600
              0.300
              0.250                                                   1.400
              0.200
KL Distance




                                                        KL Distance
                                                                      1.200
              0.150
                                                                      1.000
              0.100
                                                                      0.800
              0.050
              0.000                                                   0.600
                                     al




                                                                                             al
                                   on


                                  lue




                                                                                          lue
                                   er
                                    ol




                                                                                           on




                                                                                           er
                                                                                            ol
                                 id u




                                                                                         id u
                               Po




                                                                                       Po
                               ak




                                                                                       ak
                               cti




                                                                                       cti
                              Va




                                                                                      Va
                             div




                                                                                     div
                            tM
                            Au




                                                                                    tM
                                                                                    Au
                           ion




                                                                                   ion
                            d
                           In




                                                                                    d
                                                                                   In
                        ine


                         ke




                                                                                ine


                                                                                 ke
                         le
                       pin




                                                                                 le
                                                                               pin
                     ub




                                                                             ub
                      ar




                                                                              ar
                    mb




                                                                            mb
                   gO




                                                                           gO
                    M




                                                                            M
                  Do




                                                                          Do
                 Co




                                                                         Co
                Lo




                                                                        Lo
MSR Info vs. Time – 7 Prices
                        1
                        1




% Info Agg. =
                      0.5



1- KL(prices,group)
   KL(uniform,group)

                      0 0
                             0         5   10    15




                      -0.5
                             0         5   10   15
                                 Minutes
                  -1   -1
MSR Info vs. Time – 255 prices
                       11




% Info Agg. =
                       0.5


1- KL(prices,group)
   KL(uniform,group)

                      0 0
                             0         5   10    15




                      -0.5
                             0         5   10   15
                                 Minutes
                  -1    -1
Issues
Input: Contributions             Output: Forecasts, Scores
  What info can express?           What questions can ask?
  How account for costs?           How account for value?
  Who let in where?                Use or validate system?
  Enough Incentives                Should adjust outputs?
     T-shirts enough?              Sabotage & manipulation
     Zero-sum scoring?
                                   Can keep results secret?
  Limit Costs                      Legal, P.R. risks?
     Awkward Interface
     Wait for offer accept
     Retribution
A Simple Implementation
                         f1>1            f2<1

                                                            States
   Prices




                                                      + q1 $1 if A&B
                 +
                 -                                    - q2 $1 if B
   User Assets




                                        B
                 A
                     LISP: http://hanson.gmu.edu/mktscore-prototype.html
A Simple Implementation

                              States
   Prices
   User Assets




                 A&B   AA&B
Environments: Goals, Training
                                              (Actually:   X   Z    Y)
   Want in Environment:                            Case    A   B    C
                                                    1      1   -    1
     Many variables, few directly related           2      1   -    0
                                                    3      1   -    0
     Few people, each not see all variables         4      1   -    0
                                                    5      1   -    0
     Can compute rational group estimates           6      1   -    1
                                                    7      1   -    1
     Explainable, fast, neutral                     8      1   -    0

   Training Environment:
                                                    9      1   -    0
                                                   10      0   -    0

     3 binary variables X,Y,Z, 23 = 8 combos       Sum:    9   -    3

     P(X=0) = .3, P(X=Y) = .2, P(Z=1)= .5          Same A       B    C
                                                    A   --     --    4
     3 people, see 10 cases of: AB, BC, AC          B   --     --   --
     Random map XYZ to ABC                          C   --     --   --
Experiment Environment
                             (Really: W V      X   S    U    Z    Y    T)
  8 binary vars: STUVWXYZ      Case   A   B    C   D    E    F    G    H
                                1     0   1    0   1    -    -    -    -
  28 = 256 combinations         2     1   0    0   1    -    -    -    -
                                3     0   0    1   1    -    -    -    -
  20% = P(S=0) = P(S=T)         4     1   0    1   1    -    -    -    -
                                5     0   1    1   1    -    -    -    -
        = P(T=U) = P(U=V)       6     1   0    0   1    -    -    -    -
                                7     0   1    1   1    -    -    -    -
  =…      = P(X=Y) =            8     1   0    0   1    -    -    -    -
                                9     1   0    0   1    -    -    -    -
  P(Y=Z)                       10     1   0    0   1    -    -    -    -

  6 people, each see 10        Sum 6      3    4   10   -    -    -    -

  cases: ABCD, EFGH, ABEF,     Same A      B    CD       E    F    G    H

   CDGH, ACEG, BDFH             A --       1    26      --   --   --   --
                                B --      --    73      --   --   --   --
                                C --      --   --  4    --   --   --   --
  random map STUVWXYZ           D --      --   -- --    --   --   --   --

  to ABCDEFGH
                               …
Ad Agency Decision Markets
                                          $ Revenue if
  $1           $1 if Switch                  Switch
              P(S)
                               E(R | S)
            E(R)                               Compare!
$ Revenue                      E(R | not S)

                                          $ Revenue if
                   $1 if not
                                           not Switch
                    Switch
Corporate Applications
  E[   Revenue | Switch ad agency? ]
  E[   Revenue | Raise price 10%? ]
  E[   Project done date | Drop feature? ]
  E[   Project done date | Add personnel? ]
  E[   Stock price | Fire CEO? ]
  E[   Stock price | Acquire firm X? ]
Decision Market Requirements
   Legal permission       Public credibility
   Outcome                Traders
     Measured               Enough informed
     Aggregate-enough       Decision-insiders
     Linear-enough          Enough incentives
     Conditional-enough     Anonymity
   Decision               Prices
     Distinct options       Intermediate-enough
     Important enough       Can show enough
     Enough influence
Robin Hanson PM Summit NYC 2009

Contenu connexe

En vedette (7)

Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009
Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009
Robin Hanson PM Summit SFO 2009
 
Scott Bird PM Cluster SFO 2009
Scott Bird PM Cluster SFO 2009Scott Bird PM Cluster SFO 2009
Scott Bird PM Cluster SFO 2009
 
Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009
Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009
Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009
 
Brad Wilson PM Summit NYC 2009
Brad Wilson PM Summit NYC 2009Brad Wilson PM Summit NYC 2009
Brad Wilson PM Summit NYC 2009
 
George Neumann PM Summit NYC 2009
George Neumann PM Summit NYC 2009George Neumann PM Summit NYC 2009
George Neumann PM Summit NYC 2009
 
Health Prediction System - an Artificial Intelligence Project 2015
Health Prediction System - an Artificial Intelligence Project 2015Health Prediction System - an Artificial Intelligence Project 2015
Health Prediction System - an Artificial Intelligence Project 2015
 
Data mining seminar report
Data mining seminar reportData mining seminar report
Data mining seminar report
 

Similaire à Robin Hanson PM Summit NYC 2009

Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordy
Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordyMix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordy
Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordybkitts
 
Convertible Arbitrage
Convertible ArbitrageConvertible Arbitrage
Convertible ArbitrageKaran Shah
 
Thomas paulson amazon and retail
Thomas paulson amazon and retailThomas paulson amazon and retail
Thomas paulson amazon and retailthomas paulson
 
Search Economy and Trends
Search Economy and TrendsSearch Economy and Trends
Search Economy and Trendsabcd82
 
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of Insurance
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of InsuranceSales Metrics- The Moneyball of Insurance
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of InsuranceTodd Ewing
 
RR - Technicals 1.pdf
RR - Technicals 1.pdfRR - Technicals 1.pdf
RR - Technicals 1.pdfmerag76668
 
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016semrush_webinars
 
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to Succeed
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to SucceedOpticon 2017 Hooked: How to Succeed
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to SucceedOptimizely
 
MUIBC - Round 2 interview
MUIBC - Round 2 interviewMUIBC - Round 2 interview
MUIBC - Round 2 interviewNhat Pham
 
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1Pricing strategies boot camp session 1
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1Jenny Spring
 
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecasting
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecastingLsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecasting
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecastingPeter LePiane
 
Learn, Engage, Automate, Listen
Learn, Engage, Automate, ListenLearn, Engage, Automate, Listen
Learn, Engage, Automate, Listenmchyba
 
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015Mary Martino
 
Zynga ppt -wei
Zynga ppt -weiZynga ppt -wei
Zynga ppt -weiWang Wei
 

Similaire à Robin Hanson PM Summit NYC 2009 (20)

Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordy
Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordyMix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordy
Mix adjustment bkitts_presentation_wordy
 
Convertible Arbitrage
Convertible ArbitrageConvertible Arbitrage
Convertible Arbitrage
 
Thomas paulson amazon and retail
Thomas paulson amazon and retailThomas paulson amazon and retail
Thomas paulson amazon and retail
 
Search Economy and Trends
Search Economy and TrendsSearch Economy and Trends
Search Economy and Trends
 
July meeting
July meetingJuly meeting
July meeting
 
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of Insurance
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of InsuranceSales Metrics- The Moneyball of Insurance
Sales Metrics- The Moneyball of Insurance
 
RR - Technicals 1.pdf
RR - Technicals 1.pdfRR - Technicals 1.pdf
RR - Technicals 1.pdf
 
Side By Side 1.1
Side By Side 1.1Side By Side 1.1
Side By Side 1.1
 
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016
Test this Now! 10 Critical Tests To Double Leads & Sales in 2016
 
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to Succeed
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to SucceedOpticon 2017 Hooked: How to Succeed
Opticon 2017 Hooked: How to Succeed
 
MUIBC - Round 2 interview
MUIBC - Round 2 interviewMUIBC - Round 2 interview
MUIBC - Round 2 interview
 
Oberon statement nevosoft.feb 2014.
Oberon statement nevosoft.feb 2014.Oberon statement nevosoft.feb 2014.
Oberon statement nevosoft.feb 2014.
 
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1Pricing strategies boot camp session 1
Pricing strategies boot camp session 1
 
Todays 3 Percent Down Mortgage Options 2019
Todays 3 Percent Down Mortgage Options 2019Todays 3 Percent Down Mortgage Options 2019
Todays 3 Percent Down Mortgage Options 2019
 
June Meeting
June MeetingJune Meeting
June Meeting
 
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecasting
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecastingLsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecasting
Lsmto lean canvas ranking by profit forecasting
 
Capstone.pptx
Capstone.pptxCapstone.pptx
Capstone.pptx
 
Learn, Engage, Automate, Listen
Learn, Engage, Automate, ListenLearn, Engage, Automate, Listen
Learn, Engage, Automate, Listen
 
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015
Team Litt Stocktrak Winners 2015
 
Zynga ppt -wei
Zynga ppt -weiZynga ppt -wei
Zynga ppt -wei
 

Dernier

Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the company
Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the companyAmazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the company
Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the companyfashionfound007
 
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptx
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptxChapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptx
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptxesiyasmengesha
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsIntellect Design Arena Ltd
 
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarNathanielSchmuck
 
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024Stephan Koning
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...Khaled Al Awadi
 
To Create Your Own Wig Online To Create Your Own Wig Online
To Create Your Own Wig Online  To Create Your Own Wig OnlineTo Create Your Own Wig Online  To Create Your Own Wig Online
To Create Your Own Wig Online To Create Your Own Wig Onlinelng ths
 
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agency
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agencyAnyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agency
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agencyHanna Klim
 
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessQ2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessAPCO
 
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizations
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizationsEntrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizations
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizationsP&CO
 
Trauma Training Service for First Responders
Trauma Training Service for First RespondersTrauma Training Service for First Responders
Trauma Training Service for First RespondersBPOQe
 
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...ISONIKELtd
 
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptx
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptxCracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptx
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
 
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003believeminhh
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsWristbands Ireland
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.ukaroemirsr
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Reportamberjiles31
 

Dernier (20)

Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the company
Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the companyAmazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the company
Amazon ppt.pptx Amazon about the company
 
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdfWAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
 
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptx
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptxChapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptx
Chapter_Five_The_Rural_Development_Policies_and_Strategy_of_Ethiopia.pptx
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
 
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
 
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
 
To Create Your Own Wig Online To Create Your Own Wig Online
To Create Your Own Wig Online  To Create Your Own Wig OnlineTo Create Your Own Wig Online  To Create Your Own Wig Online
To Create Your Own Wig Online To Create Your Own Wig Online
 
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agency
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agencyAnyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agency
Anyhr.io | Presentation HR&Recruiting agency
 
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessQ2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for Business
 
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizations
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizationsEntrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizations
Entrepreneurship & organisations: influences and organizations
 
Trauma Training Service for First Responders
Trauma Training Service for First RespondersTrauma Training Service for First Responders
Trauma Training Service for First Responders
 
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...
ISONIKE Ltd Accreditation for the Conformity Assessment and Certification of ...
 
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptx
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptxCracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptx
Cracking the ‘Business Process Outsourcing’ Code Main.pptx
 
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003
The Vietnam Believer Newsletter_MARCH 25, 2024_EN_Vol. 003
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
 

Robin Hanson PM Summit NYC 2009

  • 1. Combinatorial Prediction Markets Robin Hanson Economics, George Mason University Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
  • 2. “Prediction Markets” Market Search Spot Speculative Matching Future Currency Bet Stock Bond Insurance Hedging Decision Gambling Context Direct
  • 3. To Evaluate Institutions Institution A When They Use Compare Quality Similar Inputs Of Outputs Institution B
  • 4. Collective Forecasting Forecasts On Requested Topics User Contributions User Scores Engagement
  • 5. Issues Input: Contributions Output: Forecasts, Scores What info can express? What questions can ask? How account for costs? How account for value? Who let in where? Use or validate system? Enough Incentives Should adjust outputs? T-shirts enough? Who let see outputs? Zero-sum scoring? Sabotage & manipulation Limit Costs Legal, P.R. risks? Awkward Interface Wait for offer accept Retribution
  • 6. Collective Forecasting Questions Consensus What exactly is What exactly are my influence? my incentives? My Forecast My Score How exactly do I express my Truth opinion?
  • 7. Editing Interface Is Transparent If my edit increases I directly the consensus chance Consensus change the of true state, I win. consensus If decreases, I lose. My Edits My Score Truth
  • 8. Issues Input: Contributions Output: Forecasts, Scores What info can express? What questions can ask? How account for costs? How account for value? Who let in where? Use or validate system? Enough Incentives Should adjust outputs? T-shirts enough? Who let see outputs? Zero-sum scoring? Sabotage & manipulation Limit Costs Legal, P.R. risks? Awkward Interface Wait for offer accept Retribution
  • 9. Factors Might Influence Sales E[Sales|Factor] Economy recovers fast? P[Factor] Competitors introduce new version? We do big promotion? We lower prices? They lower prices? We add distribution channel? We add feature F? They add feature F? Our defect rate very low?
  • 10. Combo Betting Win Place Show Not Not Not Win Place Show All outcomes Yoopick Facebook Application
  • 11. Sport Finals Tickets UEFA Austria Croatia Czech Germany Poland Portugal Switzerl. Turkey EURO 2008 France Greece v. Greece Ticket if Greece in Finals Croatia Italy Netherl. Romania Russia Actual Spain Game Sweden
  • 13. PAM Scenario Trade Return to Focus ? Update Payoffs: If SAum3 03105-125& Ave. pay Select New Price IQcs4 03 <85 IQcs4 03 >85 <85 65% Max Up 95.13% +$34.74 -$85.18 -$19.72 Buy Saudi Arabian 10% Up 68.72% +$2.74 -$3.28 -$1.07 Economic Health You Pick 65 % +1.43 -2.04 +0.34 125 15 30 70 65 No Trade 62.47% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 100 40 35 94 100 10% Dn 56.79% -$2.61 +$2.74 -$1.12 35 25 Sell 30 35 Exit Issue 48.54% -$15.34 +$26.02 -$6.31 10 10 75 Max Dn 22.98% -$120.74 +$96.61 -$22.22 1 2 3 412 03 03 03 03 04 04 ? Return to Form Execute a Trade If US military involvement in Saudi Arabia in 3rd Quarter 2003 is not between 105 and 125, this trade is null and void. Otherwise, if Iraq civil stability in 4th Quarter 2003 is below 85, then I will receive $1.43, but if it is not below 85, I will pay $2.04. Abort trade if price has changed? Execute
  • 14. Imagine A Dashboard Ave. Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 15% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 43% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 97K Base model 82K 65K 88K Via internet 43K 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K
  • 15. Ask For Detail Ave.Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 15% Fizzywoo Ship Date 59% 8% 43% Them B Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 97K 2009 2010 Base model 82K 65K 88K Via internetM A43K J J A S O N D JF M 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K
  • 16. Make An Edit Ave. Worth: $12,459 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $320 Ship Date May ’09 Mar ’09 July ’09 Features Autozoop 40% 69% 15% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 43% If We Have Autozoop, Unit Sales Total 120K 148K you gain $53 97K Base model 82K 65K if We Don’t88K It But Have You lose $78. OK? Via internet 43K 12K 73K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $3K Circulars $45 $34K $39K
  • 17. Make an Assumption Scenario: Ave. Worth: 15% $10,724 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Assume Mar Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% Unit Sales Total 120K 148K 107K Base model 82K 65K 94K Via internet 43K 12K 84K Promotion Magazine $30K $50K $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K
  • 18. Add 2nd Assumption Scenario: Ave. Worth: 2.3% $10,982 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Assume Mar Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Features Autozoop 38% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% Unit Sales Total 185K 148K 107K Base model 97K 65K 94K Via internet 78K 12K 84K Assume $40K $50K Promotion Magazine $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K
  • 19. Edit As Before Scenario: Ave. Worth: 2.3% $10,724 Us Them A Them B Base Price $240 $187 $253 Assume Mar Ship Date Apr ’09 Mar ’09 Features Autozoop 42% 69% 4% Fizzywoo 59% 8% 13% If we have Autozoop, Unit Sales Total 185K 148K you gain $53 107K Base model 97K 65K if we don’t94K it But have You lose $78. OK? Via internet 78K 12K 84K Assume $40K $50K Promotion Magazine $17K Circulars $45 $34K $49K
  • 20. Combo Market Maker Best of 5 Mechs 3 subjects, 7 prices, 5 minutes 6 subjects, 256 prices, 5 minutes 8 Variables = 256 States 3 Variables = 8 States 1.600 0.300 0.250 1.400 0.200 KL Distance KL Distance 1.200 0.150 1.000 0.100 0.800 0.050 0.000 0.600 al al on lue lue er ol on er ol id u id u Po Po ak ak cti cti Va Va div div tM Au tM Au ion ion d In d In ine ke ine ke le pin le pin ub ub ar ar mb mb gO gO M M Do Do Co Co Lo Lo
  • 21. MSR Info vs. Time – 7 Prices 1 1 % Info Agg. = 0.5 1- KL(prices,group) KL(uniform,group) 0 0 0 5 10 15 -0.5 0 5 10 15 Minutes -1 -1
  • 22. MSR Info vs. Time – 255 prices 11 % Info Agg. = 0.5 1- KL(prices,group) KL(uniform,group) 0 0 0 5 10 15 -0.5 0 5 10 15 Minutes -1 -1
  • 23. Issues Input: Contributions Output: Forecasts, Scores What info can express? What questions can ask? How account for costs? How account for value? Who let in where? Use or validate system? Enough Incentives Should adjust outputs? T-shirts enough? Sabotage & manipulation Zero-sum scoring? Can keep results secret? Limit Costs Legal, P.R. risks? Awkward Interface Wait for offer accept Retribution
  • 24. A Simple Implementation f1>1 f2<1 States Prices + q1 $1 if A&B + - - q2 $1 if B User Assets B A LISP: http://hanson.gmu.edu/mktscore-prototype.html
  • 25. A Simple Implementation States Prices User Assets A&B AA&B
  • 26. Environments: Goals, Training (Actually: X Z Y) Want in Environment: Case A B C 1 1 - 1 Many variables, few directly related 2 1 - 0 3 1 - 0 Few people, each not see all variables 4 1 - 0 5 1 - 0 Can compute rational group estimates 6 1 - 1 7 1 - 1 Explainable, fast, neutral 8 1 - 0 Training Environment: 9 1 - 0 10 0 - 0 3 binary variables X,Y,Z, 23 = 8 combos Sum: 9 - 3 P(X=0) = .3, P(X=Y) = .2, P(Z=1)= .5 Same A B C A -- -- 4 3 people, see 10 cases of: AB, BC, AC B -- -- -- Random map XYZ to ABC C -- -- --
  • 27. Experiment Environment (Really: W V X S U Z Y T) 8 binary vars: STUVWXYZ Case A B C D E F G H 1 0 1 0 1 - - - - 28 = 256 combinations 2 1 0 0 1 - - - - 3 0 0 1 1 - - - - 20% = P(S=0) = P(S=T) 4 1 0 1 1 - - - - 5 0 1 1 1 - - - - = P(T=U) = P(U=V) 6 1 0 0 1 - - - - 7 0 1 1 1 - - - - =… = P(X=Y) = 8 1 0 0 1 - - - - 9 1 0 0 1 - - - - P(Y=Z) 10 1 0 0 1 - - - - 6 people, each see 10 Sum 6 3 4 10 - - - - cases: ABCD, EFGH, ABEF, Same A B CD E F G H CDGH, ACEG, BDFH A -- 1 26 -- -- -- -- B -- -- 73 -- -- -- -- C -- -- -- 4 -- -- -- -- random map STUVWXYZ D -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- to ABCDEFGH …
  • 28. Ad Agency Decision Markets $ Revenue if $1 $1 if Switch Switch P(S) E(R | S) E(R) Compare! $ Revenue E(R | not S) $ Revenue if $1 if not not Switch Switch
  • 29. Corporate Applications E[ Revenue | Switch ad agency? ] E[ Revenue | Raise price 10%? ] E[ Project done date | Drop feature? ] E[ Project done date | Add personnel? ] E[ Stock price | Fire CEO? ] E[ Stock price | Acquire firm X? ]
  • 30. Decision Market Requirements Legal permission Public credibility Outcome Traders Measured Enough informed Aggregate-enough Decision-insiders Linear-enough Enough incentives Conditional-enough Anonymity Decision Prices Distinct options Intermediate-enough Important enough Can show enough Enough influence

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. <number>
  2. First want to be like a standard economics experiment, whose standards have evolved over the decades to allow them to best be comparable to theory and to each other. Explainable = we take people “off the street” and have to explain everything to them in a few minutes before they start an experiment. Fast = want it to be over within a few minutes, so we can run many periods to get enough data to make significant comparisonsNeutral = emotionally neutral, is standard econ practice, since emotional salience creates lots of variation in outcomes that is hard to model and control for. Expect real situation to have many related variables, but most relations are not direct – experts must look at data to guess if correlation see is just coincidence, or real. Most experts specialize in certain kinds of data, do not study all dataFew people = want to explore thin market limit, where there are more markets than people. We want to be able to compare results to an ideal benchmark of people sharing all info and inferring all they can from it. Of course people rarely get close to this benchmark, and we don’t expect our markets to. Since take people “off the street”, so need a “training” situation to introduce them to the basic concepts.The “test” situation is more challenging, and we expect a better indication of how these mechanisms will work in the field test. 3 binary variables gives 8 combinations of variable values. We randomly pick X first, then pick Y based on X, then pick Z.Since only one of the three pairs of variables is related, only 1/3 of pairs are related. Three people for 8 markets, are in the thin markets regime.They see the same 10 cases drawn as described, but each person not see one variable. And they see the cases in terms of labels A,B,C, not knowhing which is which re X,Y,Z. See sample data to right. People have to look at the correlations and frequencies of the variables they see to try to guess which are X,Y,Z.The one that comes up 1 the most often is most likely X, and the pair that are the least similar are most likely X,Y.Here this subject happens to see the two variables that are actually related, A and C. <number>
  3. The test situation has 8 binary variables, and so 256 combinations of variable values. With only six people trading in 256 markets, this is way into the thin market problem. Here we create a chain of related variables. Since there are 28 variable pairs, and 7 pairs directly related, only