Data Con LA 2019 - Box Office Strategy: Do Release Dates Matter? by Preet Singh

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In 2018, Disney released the much-awaited spinoff in the Star Wars universe: Solo: A Star Wars Story, based on the character made iconic by Harrison Ford. Despite a blockbuster production and marketing budget, the film went on to severely underperform at the box office. Trade pundits had their favorite theories why this happened, but perhaps the most telling explanation came from Ron Howard, the movie's director. In an interview with Josh Horowitz, the very first reason he attributed the failure to was it's Memorial Day release date. Strategy for theatrical releases of movies encompass several factors, but perhaps none so deliberated upon as the release date. Will the movie clash with a feature in a similar genre? Will a summer release date bode better than a December release? Are all long weekends equal? Hollywood has an abundance of stories where a movie's poor performance is attributed to an ill-chosen release date. In this talk, I try to find the answers by examining patterns in release-date strategy. As we shall see, the results don't always align with conventional wisdom, and that differing factors can make an otherwise excellent choice, an extremely poor one.

Technology

BOX OFFICE STRATEGY: DO
RELEASE DATES MATTER? PREET SINGH

THE DATASET
‣ TMDB + GROUP LENS ON KAGGLE
‣ 45,462 ROWS X 26 COLUMNS
‣ I ONLY NEEDED RELEASE DATE,
BUDGET, REVENUE.

IS MEMORIAL DAY A BAD RELEASE DATE?
JAN DATES
FEB DATES
:
:
DECEMBER DATES
CHRISTMAS DATES
Absolute?
Relative?

THINGS I EXPECTED
‣ MAJORITY OF MOVIES RELEASE ON FRIDAYS.
‣ HOLIDAY WEEKENDS MEAN STRICTLY THE FRIDAY PRIOR.

NUMBER OF MOVIES BY RELEASE DAY
THINGS I LEARNT:

THINGS I EXPECTED ADJUSTED
‣ MAJORITY OF MOVIES RELEASE ON FRIDAYS.
‣ HOLIDAY WEEKENDS MEAN STRICTLY THE
FRIDAY PRIOR.
‣ NO RESTRICTIONS ON WHEN MOVIES ARE
RELEASED - STAR WARS ’77 —>
‣ SEEMINGLY ARBITRARY DECISION
‣ ADJUSTED MY MODEL: MONTHS.

MEAN REVENUE BY MONTH
Mean = 11.25 million

MEAN REVENUE BY MONTH + # MOVIES BY MONTH
LET’S BREAK IT DOWN :

WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
‣ MAY 3RD BEST PERFORMANCE
‣ ONLY WORSE THAN JUNE AND DECEMBER
‣ DEC > MAY? I DON’T BUY IT.
‣ PERFORMANCE GAP TOO SMALL
‣ RISK TOO LARGE
‣ MAY IS NOT ABSOLUTELY WORSE.
‣ MAY IS NOT RELATIVELY WORSE (WRT DEC).
‣ DID RON MEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER STAR WARS MOVIES?

STAR WARS UNIVERSE (ONLY THE IMPORTANT ONES)

STAR WARS UNIVERSE : REVENUE AND BUDGET (ADJUSTED)

ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE VS REVENUERevenue(inUS$millions)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Rotten Tomatoes score
50 62.5 75 87.5 100

SO WHY DID SOLO FAIL?
‣ BACKLASH AGAINST THE LAST JEDI?
‣ TOO SMALL A GAP BETWEEN STAR WARS MOVIES?
‣ LUKEWARM CRITICS REVIEWS?
‣ CINEMATOGRAPHY?
‣ CASTING: ALDEN EHRENREICH WRONG FOR SOLO?
‣ …………………………………….

Title Box Ofﬁce
Release
Date
May 25-28
May 25 -
July 1
Avengers :
Inﬁnity War
$2.048 B
April 27,
2018
$22.45M $67M
Deadpool
2
$785 M
May 18,
2018
$53.8M $145M
Total $76.25M $212M
ONE LAST METRIC

Title Box Ofﬁce Release Date
Aquaman $1.148B Dec 21, 2018
Mary Poppins
Return
$349.5M Dec 19, 2018
Bumblebee $468M Dec 21, 2018
Spiderman: Into
the Spider-Verse
$375M Dec 14, 2018
OK, THIS ONE’S THE LAST METRIC : HOW WOULD CHRISTMAS LOOK?

STAY IN TOUCH!
PREET SINGH
preet@enginelitix.ai

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Effective data discovery is crucial for maintaining compliance and mitigating risks in today's rapidly evolving privacy landscape. However, traditional manual approaches often struggle to keep pace with the growing volume and complexity of data. Join us for an insightful webinar where industry leaders from TrustArc and Privya will share their expertise on leveraging AI-powered solutions to revolutionize data discovery. You'll learn how to: - Effortlessly maintain a comprehensive, up-to-date data inventory - Harness code scanning insights to gain complete visibility into data flows leveraging the advantages of code scanning over DB scanning - Simplify compliance by leveraging Privya's integration with TrustArc - Implement proven strategies to mitigate third-party risks Our panel of experts will discuss real-world case studies and share practical strategies for overcoming common data discovery challenges. They'll also explore the latest trends and innovations in AI-driven data management, and how these technologies can help organizations stay ahead of the curve in an ever-changing privacy landscape.

TrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data Discovery

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Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/why-teams-call-analytics-is-critical-to-your-entire-business Nothing is as frustrating and noticeable as being in an important call and being unable to see or hear the other person. Not surprising then, that issues with Teams calls are among the most common problems users call their helpdesk for. Having in depth insight into everything relevant going on at the user’s device, local network, ISP and Microsoft itself during the call is crucial for good Microsoft Teams Call quality support. To ensure a quick and adequate solution and to ensure your users get the most out of their Microsoft 365. But did you know that ‘bad calls’ are also an excellent indicator of other problems arising? Precisely because it is so noticeable!? Like the canary in the mine, bad calls can be early indicators of problems. Problems that might otherwise not have been noticed for a while but can have a big impact on productivity and satisfaction. Join this session by Christoph Adler to learn how true Microsoft Teams call quality analytics helped other organizations troubleshoot bad calls and identify and fix problems that impacted Teams calls or the use of Microsoft365 in general. See what it can do to keep your users happy and productive! In this session we will cover - Why CQD data alone is not enough to troubleshoot call problems - The importance of attributing call problems to the right call participant - What call quality analytics can do to help you quickly find, fix-, and prevent problems - Why having retrospective detailed insights matters - Real life examples of how others have used Microsoft Teams call quality monitoring to problem shoot problems with their ISP, network, device health and more.

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Data Con LA 2019 - Box Office Strategy: Do Release Dates Matter? by Preet Singh

1. BOX OFFICE STRATEGY: DO RELEASE DATES MATTER? PREET SINGH

2. WHERE IT STARTED

3. THE DATASET ‣ TMDB + GROUP LENS ON KAGGLE ‣ 45,462 ROWS X 26 COLUMNS ‣ I ONLY NEEDED RELEASE DATE, BUDGET, REVENUE.

4. IS MEMORIAL DAY A BAD RELEASE DATE? JAN DATES FEB DATES : : DECEMBER DATES CHRISTMAS DATES Absolute? Relative?

5. THINGS I EXPECTED ‣ MAJORITY OF MOVIES RELEASE ON FRIDAYS. ‣ HOLIDAY WEEKENDS MEAN STRICTLY THE FRIDAY PRIOR.

6. NUMBER OF MOVIES BY RELEASE DAY THINGS I LEARNT:

7. THINGS I EXPECTED ADJUSTED ‣ MAJORITY OF MOVIES RELEASE ON FRIDAYS. ‣ HOLIDAY WEEKENDS MEAN STRICTLY THE FRIDAY PRIOR. ‣ NO RESTRICTIONS ON WHEN MOVIES ARE RELEASED - STAR WARS ’77 —> ‣ SEEMINGLY ARBITRARY DECISION ‣ ADJUSTED MY MODEL: MONTHS.

8. TOTAL REVENUE BY MONTH

9. MEAN REVENUE BY MONTH Mean = 11.25 million

10. MEAN REVENUE BY MONTH + # MOVIES BY MONTH LET’S BREAK IT DOWN :

11. JANUARY EXPLAINED.

12. WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR ‣ MAY 3RD BEST PERFORMANCE ‣ ONLY WORSE THAN JUNE AND DECEMBER ‣ DEC > MAY? I DON’T BUY IT. ‣ PERFORMANCE GAP TOO SMALL ‣ RISK TOO LARGE ‣ MAY IS NOT ABSOLUTELY WORSE. ‣ MAY IS NOT RELATIVELY WORSE (WRT DEC). ‣ DID RON MEAN RELATIVE TO OTHER STAR WARS MOVIES?

13. STAR WARS UNIVERSE (ONLY THE IMPORTANT ONES)

14. I’VE LEFT OUT SOME MOVIES…

15. STAR WARS UNIVERSE : REVENUE AND BUDGET (ADJUSTED)

16. ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE VS REVENUERevenue(inUS$millions) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Rotten Tomatoes score 50 62.5 75 87.5 100

17. SO WHY DID SOLO FAIL? ‣ BACKLASH AGAINST THE LAST JEDI? ‣ TOO SMALL A GAP BETWEEN STAR WARS MOVIES? ‣ LUKEWARM CRITICS REVIEWS? ‣ CINEMATOGRAPHY? ‣ CASTING: ALDEN EHRENREICH WRONG FOR SOLO? ‣ …………………………………….

18. SO WHY DID SOLO FAIL? MY 2 BITS

19. Title Box Ofﬁce Release Date May 25-28 May 25 - July 1 Avengers : Inﬁnity War $2.048 B April 27, 2018 $22.45M $67M Deadpool 2 $785 M May 18, 2018 $53.8M $145M Total $76.25M $212M ONE LAST METRIC

20. Title Box Ofﬁce Release Date Aquaman $1.148B Dec 21, 2018 Mary Poppins Return $349.5M Dec 19, 2018 Bumblebee $468M Dec 21, 2018 Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse $375M Dec 14, 2018 OK, THIS ONE’S THE LAST METRIC : HOW WOULD CHRISTMAS LOOK?

21. STAY IN TOUCH! PREET SINGH preet@enginelitix.ai

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