EmbargoNK H4D Stanford 2019
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EmbargoNK H4D Stanford 2019
- 1. Team Embargo.NK Lessons Learned Refined Problem: “Curtail the advantage generated by theft of cryptocurrencies to exercise maximum pressure on North Korea.” Original Problem: “Use the assets at DoD disposal to disincentivize private actors from aiding North Korea.” 101 Interviews David Cornell Francesca Ginexi John Preis Antoni Rytel Sponsor Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)
- 2. We interviewed over 100 stakeholders
- 3. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward NK Negotiation Team NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem
- 4. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward NK Negotiation Team NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem US Negotiation Team DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy Team Maritime AssetsIntelligence Assets Flag and Port State Enforcement International Partners State Department White House Policy Team UNSC
- 5. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward US Negotiation Team NK Negotiation Team DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy Team Maritime AssetsIntelligence Assets Flag and Port State Enforcement NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers International Partners State Department White House Policy Team UNSC Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors Where value is created OSD Focus
- 6. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We thought Ship-to-Ship transfers was the main issue
- 7. Mapping the interdiction approval process Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Interdicting Ship Notices Suspect Vessel Ship Captain Reports Vessel to PACOM seeking permission to interdict PACOM contacts OSD for permission OSD contacts State Dept OPS State OPSFlag State Desk Flag State Post Flag State “A 24 hour delay can make all the difference” CAPT Tim Brown USCG
- 8. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Our MVPs “Negotiator needs information on what works” Amb. Chris Hill “You need to empower the negotiator, give a menu of options” Amb. Kathleen Stephens
- 9. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Predictive Modeling was not the solution Predictive modeling MVP could be useful but would be limited in effect Enough attention on the physical space from elsewhere ~Former Intelligence Community Expert
- 10. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We realized that we got it wrong
- 11. “Nothing on the sea matters if China opens up a pipeline.” - Sponsor, Office of the Secretary of Defense Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We solved the wrong problem
- 12. NSA / Deputy SECDEF SECTREAS SECSTATE OSD OFAC Negotiators NK State Desk Assigned P8 Assigned Vessels PACFLEET Intelligence ? ? We searched for the missing piece
- 13. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Former Intelligence Community Expert “If you are my private think tank, I want you to figure out a way to stop NK from making money using cyber tools.” How we found a new course of action
- 14. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Former Intelligence Community Expert “If you are my private think tank, I want you to figure out a way to stop NK from making money using cyber tools.” “The government is slow to catch up on these things” Former Treasury Official How we found a new course of action
- 15. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward “Nobody’s working on this” Difficulty Value 5 “Our main focus for the last few decades” $750,000 $7,000,000 Our next direction seemed clear
- 16. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
- 17. Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
- 18. TumblerStolen BitCoin Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Exchange back to BitCoin Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
- 19. TumblerStolen BitCoin Unsecured Exchange Move through Monero Wallets Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Exchange to Monero Move through Monero Wallets Exchange back to BitCoin Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
- 20. ~H. R. McMaster “It could be the major gamechanger” “You shouldn’t know that!” Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
- 21. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Addressing North Korean Cryptocurrency
- 22. Getting the word out Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
- 23. Sponsor: Andrea Yaffe, OSD Military Mentor: Col. Matt Kent, USMC Industry Mentor: Kevin Ray Teaching Assistant: Mackenzie Burnett Thank You Teaching Team: Steve Blank Pete Newell Steve Weinstein Tom Bedecarré Jeff Decker Email: team_embargonk@lists.stanford.edu