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The Lean LaunchPad
Lecture 1: Business Models and
    Customer Development


              Steve Blank
              Jon Feiber
               Jon Burke

        http://i245.stanford.edu/
What’s A Company?
What’s A Company?

  A business organization which sells a
product or service in exchange for revenue
                 and profit
How Are Companies
   Organized?
How Are Companies
    Organized?
Companies are organized around
      Business Models
What’s a Business Model?
What’s a Business Model?

 A business model describes all the parts
of the company necessary to make money
What About My Technology?
What About My Technology?

Your technology is one of the many critical
  pieces necessary to build a company.
   It is part of the “Value Proposition”
What About My Technology?

Customers don’t care about your technology
     They are trying to solve a problem
What’s A Startup?
What’s A Startup?

A startup is a temporary organization
 designed to search for a repeatable
    and scalable business model
How to Build A Startup

             Idea
       Business Model
       Size Opportunity
    Customer Development
How to Build A Startup

         Business   Size of the   Customer    Customer
Idea     Model(s)   Opportunity   Discovery   Validation
How to Build A Startup

        Size of the
         Business     Size of the
                       Business     Customer    Customer
Idea    Opportunity
         Model(s)     Opportunity
                       Model(s)     Discovery   Validation




       Theory                        Practice
How to Build A Startup

        Size of the
         Business     Size of the
                       Business       Customer           Customer
Idea    Opportunity
         Model(s)     Opportunity
                       Model(s)       Discovery          Validation




                                    • Web startups get the product in
                                    front of customers earlier
How to Build A Startup

        Size of the
         Business     Size of the
                       Business     Customer    Customer
Idea    Opportunity
         Model(s)     Opportunity
                       Model(s)     Discovery   Validation
buzz
group
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
A business model describes all
the parts of the company
necessary to make money
what are those parts? what
parts is a business model
composed of?
22
?   ?
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Business
Model Canvas
to describe, challenge,
design, and invent
business models more
systematically
building
blocks
CUSTOMER SEGMENTS




                    images by JAM
VALUE PROPOSITIONS




                     images by JAM
CHANNELS




           images by JAM
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS




                     images by JAM
REVENUE STREAMS




                  images by JAM
KEY RESOURCES




                images by JAM
KEY ACTIVITIES




                 images by JAM
KEY PARTNERS




               images by JAM
COST STRUCTURE




                 images by JAM
key    value proposition       customer
            activities                           relationships




     key                                                     customer
partners                                                     segments




     cost                                                    revenue
structure         key                                        streams
            resources                        channels

                                                                 images by JAM
key    value proposition       customer
            activities                           relationships




     key                                                     customer
partners                                                     segments




     cost                                                    revenue
structure         key                                        streams
            resources                        channels

                                                                 images by JAM
images by JAM
CANVAS OVERLAY
KEY        KEY          OFFER         CUSTOMER      CUSTOMER
PARTNERS   ACTIVITIES                 RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS




           KEY                        CHANNELS
           RESOURCES




COST STRUCTURE                  REVENUE STREAMS




                                                       images by JAM
CANVAS OVERLAY
KEY        KEY          OFFER         CUSTOMER      CUSTOMER
PARTNERS   ACTIVITIES                 RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS




           KEY                        CHANNELS
           RESOURCES




COST STRUCTURE                  REVENUE STREAMS




                                                       images by JAM
Business Model Canvas
                    building
                    block                                            building
                                                                     block                 building
                                                                                           block
                          building
 building                 block
 block                                    building
                                          block

                   building
                   block                                  building
                                                          block

               building                                                    building
               block                                                       block




    building                   building              building                   building
    block                      block                 block                      block
illustration

               45
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
why should some of the
smartest scientists in the world
waste their time thinking about
a business model for coffee?
not just because most scientists
drink a lot of coffee. we can learn
a lot from innovative business
models across industries
how much did the cost of
home coffee consumption
change for Swiss households
over the last couple of years?
600%
to
800%
more
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Nespresso
changed the
   business
 (model) for
   espresso
RESULTS
one of the fastest-
growing businesses in
the Nestlé group
average growth of
30% p.a. since 2000
over 3 billion CHF annual
revenue with 1 product line
(3.2 bio USD)
buzz group

             57
Discuss and describe how you
would design a business model
around Nespresso’s invention
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
?       ?


             ?

         ?       ?



     ?               ?

60
Nespresso
                                                 club
              production
                                   Nespresso
                                   machines


                                   Nespresso
                                     pods
              distribution
                                                Nespresso
               channels
                                                  .com

                      production
     coffee
                       facilites


                                               1x
          B2C                                  machine
      distribution                             sales



61
but Nespresso almost failed in
1987 due to a nonperforming
business model
Nespresso
      system

                 joint venture
                      with
                 manufacturer




63
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
what is the most powerful about
using a shared language, such as
the Business Model Canvas?
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
buzz group
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
?       ?


             ?

         ?       ?



     ?               ?

71
possible
alternatives
radiation-free
     detection of     hospitals
     breast cancer




73
medicaldevicema
     proprietary IP
                      nufacturers




74
?       ?


             ?

         ?       ?



     ?               ?

75
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
But,
Realize They’re Hypotheses
9 Guesses


                            Guess
Guess    Guess
                                     Guess

                  Guess
        Guess               Guess



        Guess                Guess
How Does This Really Work?

Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class
  8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
I.I.T.Y.I.W.H.T.K.Y
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Key Opinion Leaders
      (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
•
•
•




•
•
•
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development
Customer Development
The founders
    ^
  Get Out of the Building and
 Search for the Business Model
The Customer Development Process



  Customer            Customer     Customer   Company
  Discovery           Validation   Creation   Building


              Pivot
The Minimum Viable Product (MVP)



  Customer            Customer     Customer    Company
  Discovery           Validation   Creation    Building


              Pivot




 •Smallest feature set that gets you the most …
      - orders, learning, feedback, failure…
A Pivot is the change of one or
more Business Model Canvas
Components
The Pivot



Customer            Customer     Customer   Company
Discovery           Validation   Creation   Building


            Pivot




•The heart of Customer Development
•Iteration without crisis
•Fast, agile and opportunistic
Pivot Cycle Time Matters



       Customer            Customer         Customer        Company
       Discovery           Validation       Creation        Building


                   Pivot




•Speed of cycle minimizes cash needs
•Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time
• Near instantaneous customer feedback drives feature set
The Customer Development Process
        Customer Discovery

   Customer        Customer          Customer         Company
   Discovery       Validation        Creation          Building




Bus Model        Extract                                          Pivot or
                                Test Problem    Test Solution
 Canvas        Hypotheses                                         Proceed
The Customer Development Process
       Customer Validation

 Customer          Customer               Customer          Company
 Discovery         Validation             Creation           Building




    Get Ready to                                                  Pivot or
                       Sell, Sell, Sell       Positioning
        Sell                                                      Proceed
Blog Your Progress
How?
• Customer Development
   – The Process
• Narrative
   –   Interviews
   –   Surveys
   –   Videos
   –   Prototypes
• Business Model Canvas
   – Scorekeeping
• Real-time Feedback
• Physical Reality Checks
   – Skype
   – Face-to-face
We Made Students
Blog Their Progress

It Changed Everything
Interview
Photos   Videos
Surveys
Interview
& Photos
Competitive
  Analysis
Key Findings
A/B Test
Results
Key Question
Strategy
Business Model Canvas as
      the Scorecard
Market Type

Four Types of Markets
Type of Market
               Changes Everything
Clone Market   Existing Market     Resegmented      New Market
                                      Market


• Market             • Sales               • Customers
   – Market Size         –   Sales Model     • Needs
   – Cost of Entry       –   Margins         • Adoption
   – Launch Type         –   Sales Cycle
   – Competitive         –   Chasm Width
     Barriers                              •Finance
                                              • Ongoing Capital
   – Positioning
                                              • Time to Profitability
Definitions: Four Types of Markets
  Clone Market   Existing Market     Resegmented   New Market
                                        Market

• Clone Market
   – Copy of a U.S. business model
• Existing Market
   – Faster/Better = High end
• Resegmented Market
   – Niche = marketing/branding driven
   – Cheaper = low end
• New Market
   – Cheaper/good enough, creates a new class of product/customer
   – Innovative/never existed before
Size of Opportunity
Market/Opportunity Analysis


How Big is It?: Market/Opportunity Analysis
  – Identify a Customer and Market Need
  – Size the Market
  – Competitors
  – Growth Potential
How Big is the Pie?
              Total Available Market



                       • How many people would want/need
                         the product?
                       • How large is the market be
                         (in $’s) if they all bought?

Total Available Market •   How many units would that be?

                       How Do I Find Out?
                       • Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester
                       • Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
How Big is My Slice?
                Served Available Market


                        • How many people need/can use product?
                        • How many people have the money to
                          buy the product
  Total                 • How large would the market be (in $’s)
Available    Served       if they all bought?
 Market
            Available   • How many units would that be?
             Market
                        How Do I Find Out?
                        • Talk to potential customers
How Much Can I Eat?
                            Target Market

                               • Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3?
                               • How many customers is that?
                               • How large is the market be
                                 (in $’s) if they all bought?
  Total    Served
                               • How many units would that be?
Available Available
 Market    Market
                       Target
                       Market How Do I Find Out?
                               • Talk to potential customers
                               • Identify and talk to channel partners
                               • Identify and talk to competitors
Market Size: Summary

• Market Size Questions:
  – How big can this market be?
  – How much of it can we get?
   – Market growth rate
   – Market structure (Mature or in flux?)
• Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales Channel
• Next important: Market size by competitive approximation
   – Wall Street analyst reports are great
• And : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner
Team Deliverable by Tomorrow

1.   Hypotheses for each part of business model
2.   Test for each of the hypotheses
          What constitutes a pass/fail signal for the test (e.g. at
          what point would you say your hypotheses
          wasn’t even close to correct?
3.   Plan to get out of the building to test the hypotheses

•    Summarized in a 5 Minute PowerPoint Presentation
     –   Business Model Canvas
     –   Market Size
     –   Getting out of the building plan


          Don’t Over Think Your Hypotheses
Sweet Sensors


Glucose Monitor:                                                                 We have developed a
                                                                                 novel technology to use
• Widely available                                                               any glucose monitor
• Cheap                                                                          without modifications to
• Quantitative                                                                   detect a wide range of
  information                                                                    non-glucose targets at
• $10 billion market                                                             very low concentrations
                                                                                 (such as diseases (e.g.,
However, it can detect                                                           TB), heavy metal ions
only one target: glucose                                                         (e.g., Pb, Hg), organic
and at very high                                                                 toxins, bacteria, viruses
concentrations                                                                   and cancers)



                           Yu Xiang and Yi Lu, Nature Chem. 3, 697-703 (2011).
Examples
Market size

  Total available
market = $1.2 billion           - 300 million patients worldwide

                                - Required HbA1C testing every
                                  60-90 days
    Serviceable Available
    Market = $600 million       - Available in-home HbA1C tests today
                                  are $100/10 tests

            Target market       - Assuming $1 per test, TAM = $1.2 billion
            = $120 million
                                - Assuming 50% people have the access
                                  to a HbA1c test, SAM = $600 million

                                - Assuming we can capture 20% of SAM
                                  (high-end diabetics and early
                                  adopters), Target market = $120 million
Market Size

                                 • Growing market
                                     – Aging population
                                     – Living Style & Diets
Total Available market
                                     – Chronic disease
  170M (US & EU5)
         $25B                    • Driving factors
                                     – Healthcare costs
                                     – Reimbursement
                                     – Healthcare labor shortage

           Target market
           3.5M (Resistant Hypertension)
           $500M
Business Model Canvas
                                                                                  Yi Lu, Tian Lan
                                         Sweet Sensors                            Neil Kane
                                                                                  Chris Sorensen




                        Conferences

                        Product R&D                                                       Diabetics
                                         At home               Product supports
Glucose monitor         QC                                                                Clinicians (in rural area)
                                         Convenient            Patient
    manufacturers
                        Marketing                              network/community          Triage nurses
                                         Less exposure to
Kit manufacturers                        infectious diseases                              Pre-diabetics
                                         in the hospital
Reagent suppliers
                                         Cheaper

                                         More frequent         Retailers (Walgreen)
                        IP

                        Personnel        Better indicator of   Online vendors (Amazon)
                                         health (diabetic
                                         management)           Direct sales


                    Reagents

                    Manufacture
                                                                       Disposable test kit (used repeatedly
                    Licensing                                          on a regular basis)
                    FDA certification?
Action Plan
                                                                                  Yi Lu, Tian Lan
                                         Sweet Sensors                            Neil Kane
                                                                                  Chris Sorensen




                        Conferences

                        Product R&D                                                       Diabetics
                                         At home               Product supports
Glucose monitor         QC                                                                Clinicians (in rural area)
                                         Convenient            Patient
    manufacturers
                        Marketing                              network/community          Triage nurses
                                         Less exposure to
Kit manufacturers                        infectious diseases                              Pre-diabetics
                                         in the hospital
Reagent suppliers
                                         Cheaper

                                         More frequent         Retailers (Walgreen)
                        IP

                        Personnel        Better indicator of   Online vendors (Amazon)
                                         health (diabetic
                                         management)           Direct sales


                    Reagents

                    Manufacture
                                                                       Disposable test kit (used repeatedly
                    Licensing                                          on a regular basis)
                    FDA certification?
The Business Model Canvas



                                                                            Technical Assistance
cGMP manufacturer       SOPs for precursors
                                                                            (Image Atlas)            Radiopharmacies
Radiopharmacies         and drugs                Accessibility (RCY)        FDA regulatory support
Nuclear Medicine and    Recruit clinical sites   Purity                                              Equipment producers
Radiology               In vivo animal studies   Speed
departments             Develop regulatory       PET/SPECT                                           Prescribing physicians
                        plan for pre IND         Multiplatform
                        meeting                                               Technical assistance
                                                 Sensitivity (nca)                                   Radiologist who
                        ID cGMP CRO              Specific compounds
  Pharmaceutical                                                                                     perform studies
                        Fund-raising
  development
  companies
                                                        General
                        IP                          methodology for
                        PoP data                                            Direct sales of            Drug developers
                                                   adding fluorine to
                                                                            precursor
                                                  lead compounds of
                         IP                             interest
                         PoP data                                           R&D and clinical
                                                                            studies presented in      Radiologists
                         Regulatory plan
                         Understanding of                                   journals and meetings
                         the regulatory
                         process



                                                               Sales of intermediates
    Contract cGMP precursor manufacture
    Salary, Rents
                                                               Technology license
    Clinical trials
                                                               Product license (royalty)
The Business Model Canvas



                                                                            Technical Assistance
cGMP manufacturer       SOPs for precursors
                                                                            (Image Atlas)             Radiopharmacies
Radiopharmacies         and drugs
                                                 Accessibility (RCY)        FDA regulatory support
Nuclear Medicine and    Recruit clinical sites
                                                 Purity                                               Equipment producers
Radiology               In vivo animal studies
                        Develop regulatory       Speed
departments                                      PET/SPECT                                            Prescribing physicians
                        plan for pre IND
                        meeting                  Multiplatform                Technical assistance
                                                 Sensitivity (nca)                                    Radiologist who
                        ID cGMP CRO
  Pharmaceutical                                 Specific compounds                                   perform studies
                        Fund-raising
  development
  companies
                                                         General            Direct sales of
                        IP                           methodology for        precursor
                        PoP data                    adding fluorine to                                  Drug developers
                                                   lead compounds of        R&D and clinical
                         IP                              interest           studies presented in
                         PoP data                                           journals and meetings      Radiologists
                         Regulatory plan
                         Understanding of                                   Sales of precursor
                         the regulatory                                     through global finished
                         process                                            pharmaceutical
                                                                            distributor


                                                               Sales of intermediates
    Contract cGMP precursor manufacture
    Salary, Rents
                                                               Technology license
    Clinical trials
                                                               Product license (royalty)
Critical Success Factors

• Validation of the need
  – By talking to diabetic patients, clinician and
    nurses
• Validation of the customer segmentation
  – By talking to glucose monitor and kit
    manufactures
• Evidence of market accessibility
  – By talking to glucose monitor and kit
    distributors
Backup
Customer Discovery



Bus Model     Extract                                   Pivot or
                         Test Problem   Test Solution
 Canvas     Hypotheses                                  Proceed
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model       Extract                                      Pivot or
                              Test Problem   Test Solution
 Canvas       Hypotheses                                     Proceed


            • TAM/SAM
            •Product MVP
            • Customers
            •Channel
            •Market Type
            • Customer Relationships: Get/Keep/Grow
            • Key Resources
            • Partners
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model        Extract                                        Pivot or
                                Test Problem    Test Solution
 Canvas        Hypotheses                                       Proceed


             • TAM/SAM
             •Low Fidelity MVP
             • Customers/Source
             • Channel
             •Market Type
             • Customer Relationships: Acquire/Activate
             •Traffic Partners
             • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model            Extract                                           Pivot or
                                        Test Problem   Test Solution
 Canvas            Hypotheses                                          Proceed


            •TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                  •Customer Contacts
            • Customers           •Problem Understanding
            • Channel
            •Market Type          • Customer Understanding
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                  •Market Knowledge
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model            Extract                                            Pivot or
                                        Test Problem    Test Solution
 Canvas            Hypotheses                                           Proceed


            •TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                  •Customer Engagement
            • Customers           •Test Low Fidelity MVP
            • Channel
            •Market Type          • Customer Understanding
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                  •Traffic & Competitive Analysis
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model          Extract                                           Pivot or
                                  Test Problem     Test Solution
 Canvas          Hypotheses                                          Proceed



            • TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                          •Update Bus Model
            • Customers                   •Create Prototype/Prod Presentation
            • Channel
            •Market Type                  •Test Solution with Customer
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                          • Update Business Model
            • Pricing                     • 1st Advisory Board Members
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model           Extract                                                                Pivot or
                                             Test Problem                Test Solution
 Canvas           Hypotheses                                                               Proceed



             • TAM/SAM             • Customer Engagement
             • Low Fidelity MVP    • Test Low Fidelity MVP
                                                                      • Update Bus Model
             • Customers           • Customer Understanding           •Test High Fidelity MVP
             • Channel             • Traffic & Competitive Analysis
             •Market Type                                             • Measure Customer Behavior
             •Cust Relationships
             • Traffic Partners
                                                                      • Update Business Model
             • Pricing                                                • 1st Advisory Board Members
Customer Discovery – Web/Physical



Bus Model          Extract                                                              Pivot or
                                            Test Problem             Test Solution
 Canvas          Hypotheses                                                             Proceed



            • TAM/SAM             • Customer Engagement
            • Low Fidelity MVP    • Test Low Fidelity MVP
                                                                           Verify the:
            • Customers           • Customer Understanding                •Value Prop
            • Channel             • Traffic & Competitive Analysis
            •Market Type                                                  •Cust Segment
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                                                          •Cust Relationships
            • Pricing                                                     • Channel
                                                                          • Revenue Model
                                                                          • Pivot or Proceed
Customer Validation - Web


Get Ready to                                            Pivot or
                       Sell, Sell, Sell   Positioning
    Sell                                                Proceed


               Pivot
Customer Validation - Physical


    Get Ready to                                     Pivot or
                    Sell, Sell, Sell   Positioning
        Sell                                         Proceed




•Craft Positioning
•Develop Sales Materials
•Hire “Sales Closer”
•Sales Channel Action Plan
• Refine the Sales Roadmap
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Web


    Get Ready to                                      Pivot or
                     Sell, Sell, Sell   Positioning
        Sell                                          Proceed




•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans and Tools
• Build High Fidelity MVP
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Physical


            Get Ready to                                           Pivot or
                                  Sell, Sell, Sell   Positioning
                Sell                                               Proceed



•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans
• Build High Fidelity MVP     •Find Earlyvangelists
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief
                              • Test Sell – Out of the Building
• Formalize advisory board    • Refine Sales Roadmap
                              • Test Sell Channel Partners
Customer Validation - Web


            Get Ready to                                              Pivot or
                                  Sell, Sell, Sell   Positioning
                Sell                                                  Proceed



•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans       •Prepare Optimization Plans & Tools
• Build High Fidelity MVP
• Build Metrics Toolset
                              • Out of the building Activation Test
• Hire data analytics chief   • Measure and Optimize Results
• Formalize advisory board
                              • Test Sell Traffic Partners
Customer Validation - Physical/Web


                 Get Ready to                                                            Pivot or
                                          Sell, Sell, Sell              Positioning
                     Sell                                                                Proceed



•Craft Positioning
• Acquire/Activate Plans        • Prepare Optimization Plans            • Company Positioning
• Build High Fidelity MVP       • Out of the building Activation Test
                                • Measure and Optimize Results
                                                                        • Product Positioning
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief     • Test Sell Traffic Partners            • Validate Positioning
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Physical/Web


                 Get Ready to                                                              Pivot or
                                          Sell, Sell, Sell              Positioning
                     Sell                                                                  Proceed



•Craft Positioning
• Acquire/Activate Plans        • Prepare Optimization Plans                   • Assemble Data
• Build High Fidelity MVP       • Out of the building Activation Test
                                • Measure and Optimize Results
                                                                               • Validate Business Model
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief     • Test Sell Traffic Partners                   • Validate Financial Model
• Formalize advisory board
                                                                               • Pivot or Proceed

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Lecture 1: Business Model & Customer Development

  • 1. The Lean LaunchPad Lecture 1: Business Models and Customer Development Steve Blank Jon Feiber Jon Burke http://i245.stanford.edu/
  • 3. What’s A Company? A business organization which sells a product or service in exchange for revenue and profit
  • 4. How Are Companies Organized?
  • 5. How Are Companies Organized? Companies are organized around Business Models
  • 7. What’s a Business Model? A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money
  • 8. What About My Technology?
  • 9. What About My Technology? Your technology is one of the many critical pieces necessary to build a company. It is part of the “Value Proposition”
  • 10. What About My Technology? Customers don’t care about your technology They are trying to solve a problem
  • 12. What’s A Startup? A startup is a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
  • 13. How to Build A Startup Idea Business Model Size Opportunity Customer Development
  • 14. How to Build A Startup Business Size of the Customer Customer Idea Model(s) Opportunity Discovery Validation
  • 15. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation Theory Practice
  • 16. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation • Web startups get the product in front of customers earlier
  • 17. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation
  • 20. A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money
  • 21. what are those parts? what parts is a business model composed of?
  • 22. 22
  • 23. ? ?
  • 28. to describe, challenge, design, and invent business models more systematically
  • 30. CUSTOMER SEGMENTS images by JAM
  • 31. VALUE PROPOSITIONS images by JAM
  • 32. CHANNELS images by JAM
  • 33. CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS images by JAM
  • 34. REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 35. KEY RESOURCES images by JAM
  • 36. KEY ACTIVITIES images by JAM
  • 37. KEY PARTNERS images by JAM
  • 38. COST STRUCTURE images by JAM
  • 39. key value proposition customer activities relationships key customer partners segments cost revenue structure key streams resources channels images by JAM
  • 40. key value proposition customer activities relationships key customer partners segments cost revenue structure key streams resources channels images by JAM
  • 42. CANVAS OVERLAY KEY KEY OFFER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER PARTNERS ACTIVITIES RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS KEY CHANNELS RESOURCES COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 43. CANVAS OVERLAY KEY KEY OFFER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER PARTNERS ACTIVITIES RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS KEY CHANNELS RESOURCES COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 44. Business Model Canvas building block building block building block building building block block building block building block building block building building block block building building building building block block block block
  • 47. why should some of the smartest scientists in the world waste their time thinking about a business model for coffee?
  • 48. not just because most scientists drink a lot of coffee. we can learn a lot from innovative business models across industries
  • 49. how much did the cost of home coffee consumption change for Swiss households over the last couple of years?
  • 52. Nespresso changed the business (model) for espresso
  • 54. one of the fastest- growing businesses in the Nestlé group
  • 55. average growth of 30% p.a. since 2000
  • 56. over 3 billion CHF annual revenue with 1 product line (3.2 bio USD)
  • 58. Discuss and describe how you would design a business model around Nespresso’s invention
  • 60. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 60
  • 61. Nespresso club production Nespresso machines Nespresso pods distribution Nespresso channels .com production coffee facilites 1x B2C machine distribution sales 61
  • 62. but Nespresso almost failed in 1987 due to a nonperforming business model
  • 63. Nespresso system joint venture with manufacturer 63
  • 65. what is the most powerful about using a shared language, such as the Business Model Canvas?
  • 71. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 71
  • 73. radiation-free detection of hospitals breast cancer 73
  • 74. medicaldevicema proprietary IP nufacturers 74
  • 75. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 75
  • 78. 9 Guesses Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess
  • 79. How Does This Really Work? Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class 8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
  • 146. Customer Development The founders ^ Get Out of the Building and Search for the Business Model
  • 147. The Customer Development Process Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot
  • 148. The Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •Smallest feature set that gets you the most … - orders, learning, feedback, failure…
  • 149. A Pivot is the change of one or more Business Model Canvas Components
  • 150. The Pivot Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •The heart of Customer Development •Iteration without crisis •Fast, agile and opportunistic
  • 151. Pivot Cycle Time Matters Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •Speed of cycle minimizes cash needs •Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time • Near instantaneous customer feedback drives feature set
  • 152. The Customer Development Process Customer Discovery Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed
  • 153. The Customer Development Process Customer Validation Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed
  • 155. How? • Customer Development – The Process • Narrative – Interviews – Surveys – Videos – Prototypes • Business Model Canvas – Scorekeeping • Real-time Feedback • Physical Reality Checks – Skype – Face-to-face
  • 156. We Made Students Blog Their Progress It Changed Everything
  • 158. Photos Videos
  • 166. Business Model Canvas as the Scorecard
  • 167. Market Type Four Types of Markets
  • 168. Type of Market Changes Everything Clone Market Existing Market Resegmented New Market Market • Market • Sales • Customers – Market Size – Sales Model • Needs – Cost of Entry – Margins • Adoption – Launch Type – Sales Cycle – Competitive – Chasm Width Barriers •Finance • Ongoing Capital – Positioning • Time to Profitability
  • 169. Definitions: Four Types of Markets Clone Market Existing Market Resegmented New Market Market • Clone Market – Copy of a U.S. business model • Existing Market – Faster/Better = High end • Resegmented Market – Niche = marketing/branding driven – Cheaper = low end • New Market – Cheaper/good enough, creates a new class of product/customer – Innovative/never existed before
  • 171. Market/Opportunity Analysis How Big is It?: Market/Opportunity Analysis – Identify a Customer and Market Need – Size the Market – Competitors – Growth Potential
  • 172. How Big is the Pie? Total Available Market • How many people would want/need the product? • How large is the market be (in $’s) if they all bought? Total Available Market • How many units would that be? How Do I Find Out? • Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester • Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
  • 173. How Big is My Slice? Served Available Market • How many people need/can use product? • How many people have the money to buy the product Total • How large would the market be (in $’s) Available Served if they all bought? Market Available • How many units would that be? Market How Do I Find Out? • Talk to potential customers
  • 174. How Much Can I Eat? Target Market • Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3? • How many customers is that? • How large is the market be (in $’s) if they all bought? Total Served • How many units would that be? Available Available Market Market Target Market How Do I Find Out? • Talk to potential customers • Identify and talk to channel partners • Identify and talk to competitors
  • 175. Market Size: Summary • Market Size Questions: – How big can this market be? – How much of it can we get? – Market growth rate – Market structure (Mature or in flux?) • Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales Channel • Next important: Market size by competitive approximation – Wall Street analyst reports are great • And : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner
  • 176. Team Deliverable by Tomorrow 1. Hypotheses for each part of business model 2. Test for each of the hypotheses What constitutes a pass/fail signal for the test (e.g. at what point would you say your hypotheses wasn’t even close to correct? 3. Plan to get out of the building to test the hypotheses • Summarized in a 5 Minute PowerPoint Presentation – Business Model Canvas – Market Size – Getting out of the building plan Don’t Over Think Your Hypotheses
  • 177. Sweet Sensors Glucose Monitor: We have developed a novel technology to use • Widely available any glucose monitor • Cheap without modifications to • Quantitative detect a wide range of information non-glucose targets at • $10 billion market very low concentrations (such as diseases (e.g., However, it can detect TB), heavy metal ions only one target: glucose (e.g., Pb, Hg), organic and at very high toxins, bacteria, viruses concentrations and cancers) Yu Xiang and Yi Lu, Nature Chem. 3, 697-703 (2011).
  • 179. Market size Total available market = $1.2 billion - 300 million patients worldwide - Required HbA1C testing every 60-90 days Serviceable Available Market = $600 million - Available in-home HbA1C tests today are $100/10 tests Target market - Assuming $1 per test, TAM = $1.2 billion = $120 million - Assuming 50% people have the access to a HbA1c test, SAM = $600 million - Assuming we can capture 20% of SAM (high-end diabetics and early adopters), Target market = $120 million
  • 180. Market Size • Growing market – Aging population – Living Style & Diets Total Available market – Chronic disease 170M (US & EU5) $25B • Driving factors – Healthcare costs – Reimbursement – Healthcare labor shortage Target market 3.5M (Resistant Hypertension) $500M
  • 181. Business Model Canvas Yi Lu, Tian Lan Sweet Sensors Neil Kane Chris Sorensen Conferences Product R&D Diabetics At home Product supports Glucose monitor QC Clinicians (in rural area) Convenient Patient manufacturers Marketing network/community Triage nurses Less exposure to Kit manufacturers infectious diseases Pre-diabetics in the hospital Reagent suppliers Cheaper More frequent Retailers (Walgreen) IP Personnel Better indicator of Online vendors (Amazon) health (diabetic management) Direct sales Reagents Manufacture Disposable test kit (used repeatedly Licensing on a regular basis) FDA certification?
  • 182. Action Plan Yi Lu, Tian Lan Sweet Sensors Neil Kane Chris Sorensen Conferences Product R&D Diabetics At home Product supports Glucose monitor QC Clinicians (in rural area) Convenient Patient manufacturers Marketing network/community Triage nurses Less exposure to Kit manufacturers infectious diseases Pre-diabetics in the hospital Reagent suppliers Cheaper More frequent Retailers (Walgreen) IP Personnel Better indicator of Online vendors (Amazon) health (diabetic management) Direct sales Reagents Manufacture Disposable test kit (used repeatedly Licensing on a regular basis) FDA certification?
  • 183. The Business Model Canvas Technical Assistance cGMP manufacturer SOPs for precursors (Image Atlas) Radiopharmacies Radiopharmacies and drugs Accessibility (RCY) FDA regulatory support Nuclear Medicine and Recruit clinical sites Purity Equipment producers Radiology In vivo animal studies Speed departments Develop regulatory PET/SPECT Prescribing physicians plan for pre IND Multiplatform meeting Technical assistance Sensitivity (nca) Radiologist who ID cGMP CRO Specific compounds Pharmaceutical perform studies Fund-raising development companies General IP methodology for PoP data Direct sales of Drug developers adding fluorine to precursor lead compounds of IP interest PoP data R&D and clinical studies presented in Radiologists Regulatory plan Understanding of journals and meetings the regulatory process Sales of intermediates Contract cGMP precursor manufacture Salary, Rents Technology license Clinical trials Product license (royalty)
  • 184. The Business Model Canvas Technical Assistance cGMP manufacturer SOPs for precursors (Image Atlas) Radiopharmacies Radiopharmacies and drugs Accessibility (RCY) FDA regulatory support Nuclear Medicine and Recruit clinical sites Purity Equipment producers Radiology In vivo animal studies Develop regulatory Speed departments PET/SPECT Prescribing physicians plan for pre IND meeting Multiplatform Technical assistance Sensitivity (nca) Radiologist who ID cGMP CRO Pharmaceutical Specific compounds perform studies Fund-raising development companies General Direct sales of IP methodology for precursor PoP data adding fluorine to Drug developers lead compounds of R&D and clinical IP interest studies presented in PoP data journals and meetings Radiologists Regulatory plan Understanding of Sales of precursor the regulatory through global finished process pharmaceutical distributor Sales of intermediates Contract cGMP precursor manufacture Salary, Rents Technology license Clinical trials Product license (royalty)
  • 185. Critical Success Factors • Validation of the need – By talking to diabetic patients, clinician and nurses • Validation of the customer segmentation – By talking to glucose monitor and kit manufactures • Evidence of market accessibility – By talking to glucose monitor and kit distributors
  • 186. Backup
  • 187. Customer Discovery Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed
  • 188. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed • TAM/SAM •Product MVP • Customers •Channel •Market Type • Customer Relationships: Get/Keep/Grow • Key Resources • Partners • Pricing
  • 189. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed • TAM/SAM •Low Fidelity MVP • Customers/Source • Channel •Market Type • Customer Relationships: Acquire/Activate •Traffic Partners • Pricing
  • 190. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed •TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Customer Contacts • Customers •Problem Understanding • Channel •Market Type • Customer Understanding •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Market Knowledge • Pricing
  • 191. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed •TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Customer Engagement • Customers •Test Low Fidelity MVP • Channel •Market Type • Customer Understanding •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Traffic & Competitive Analysis • Pricing
  • 192. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed • TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Update Bus Model • Customers •Create Prototype/Prod Presentation • Channel •Market Type •Test Solution with Customer •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners • Update Business Model • Pricing • 1st Advisory Board Members
  • 193. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed • TAM/SAM • Customer Engagement • Low Fidelity MVP • Test Low Fidelity MVP • Update Bus Model • Customers • Customer Understanding •Test High Fidelity MVP • Channel • Traffic & Competitive Analysis •Market Type • Measure Customer Behavior •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners • Update Business Model • Pricing • 1st Advisory Board Members
  • 194. Customer Discovery – Web/Physical Bus Model Extract Pivot or Test Problem Test Solution Canvas Hypotheses Proceed • TAM/SAM • Customer Engagement • Low Fidelity MVP • Test Low Fidelity MVP Verify the: • Customers • Customer Understanding •Value Prop • Channel • Traffic & Competitive Analysis •Market Type •Cust Segment •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Cust Relationships • Pricing • Channel • Revenue Model • Pivot or Proceed
  • 195. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed Pivot
  • 196. Customer Validation - Physical Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Develop Sales Materials •Hire “Sales Closer” •Sales Channel Action Plan • Refine the Sales Roadmap • Formalize advisory board
  • 197. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans and Tools • Build High Fidelity MVP • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board
  • 198. Customer Validation - Physical Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans • Build High Fidelity MVP •Find Earlyvangelists • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell – Out of the Building • Formalize advisory board • Refine Sales Roadmap • Test Sell Channel Partners
  • 199. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans •Prepare Optimization Plans & Tools • Build High Fidelity MVP • Build Metrics Toolset • Out of the building Activation Test • Hire data analytics chief • Measure and Optimize Results • Formalize advisory board • Test Sell Traffic Partners
  • 200. Customer Validation - Physical/Web Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning • Acquire/Activate Plans • Prepare Optimization Plans • Company Positioning • Build High Fidelity MVP • Out of the building Activation Test • Measure and Optimize Results • Product Positioning • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell Traffic Partners • Validate Positioning • Formalize advisory board
  • 201. Customer Validation - Physical/Web Get Ready to Pivot or Sell, Sell, Sell Positioning Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning • Acquire/Activate Plans • Prepare Optimization Plans • Assemble Data • Build High Fidelity MVP • Out of the building Activation Test • Measure and Optimize Results • Validate Business Model • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell Traffic Partners • Validate Financial Model • Formalize advisory board • Pivot or Proceed