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The Lean LaunchPad

Lecture 1: Business Models and
   Customer Development

             Steve Blank
             Jon Feiber
            Ann Miura-Ko
             John Burke
             Jerry Engel
            Jim Hornthal
             Oren Jacob
This Session

•   The teaching team
•   Course objective(s)
•   Teaching team philosophy
•   Our expectations of you
Teaching Team
Steve Blank,Jon Feiber, John Burke




                               •   BS CS/Astro Physics U of   •   Yale BS EE
8 startups in Silicon Valley       Colorado                   •   McKinsey and Co.
• Semiconductors               •   VP Networking SUN          •   Charles River Ventures
                               •   V.C. @ MDV since 1991      •   Stanford Ph.D MS&E
• Supercomputers                                              •   TA: E145, Mayfield
• Consumer electronics                                        •
                                                                  Fellows, MS&E 273
                                                                  V.C. @ Floodgate
• Video games
                                                              ann@floodgate.com
• Enterprise software                                         @annimaniac
• Military intelligence
   sblank@stanford.edu
        @sgblank
    www.steveblank.com
Steve Blank, Jon Feiber, John Burke




8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley
• Semiconductors
• Supercomputers
• Consumer electronics    • BS CS/Astro Physics U of Colorado • Yale BS EE Co.
                                                              • McKinsey and
• Video games
• Enterprise software     • 50 employee, VP Networking @ Sun • Charles River Ventures
                                     th
• Military intelligence                                       • Stanford Ph.D MS&E
                          • V.C. @ MDV since 1991             • V.C. @ Floodgate
Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia   jdf@mdv.com             ann@floodgate.com
Details at www.steveblank.com                                     @annimaniac
Steve Blank, Jon Feiber, John Burke




8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley
• Semiconductors
• Supercomputers
• Consumer electronics           • BS CS/Astro      •   BSMechEngineering U.C. Berkeley,
• Video games                        Physics U of
• Enterprise software                Colorado       •   BA Economics U.C. Santa Cruz,
• Military intelligence          • 50th employee,   •   MBA Harvard Business School
                                VP Networking
Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia
                                @ Su                •   Founder BMI Software
Details at www.steveblank.com                       •   VC at ABS Ventures
                             • V.C. @ MDV
                               since 1991
                                                    •   Co-founder True Ventures
                             • jdf@mdv.com                  jburke@trueventures.com
                                                                  @andemca
Alexander Osterwalder, Tina Seelig




• Ph.D. in Management Information
  Systems (MIS) University of Lausanne     Ph.D. Neuroscience Stanford Med School
• Founder, Business Model Foundry          • Mgmt consultant Booz, Allen, Hamilton
• Author Business Model Generation         • Multimedia producer at Compaq
                                           Computer
• Co-founder, The Constellation for AIDS   • Founder multimedia
  competence (NGO)                         companyBookBrowser.
                                           • Exec Director Stanford Technology
                                              Ventures Program (STVP), EpiCenter
                                                     • tseelig@stanford.edu
                                                           • @tseelig
Oren Jacob, Jim Hornthal




                                     •   CMEA Capital
                                     •   Triporati
• CEO, stealth startup
• EIR, August Capita
• lCTO, Pixar
• Director, Studio Tools, Pixar
• Technical Director, Finding Nemo
Oren Jacob, Jim Hornthal




•CTO Pixar



                            • CMEA Capital
                            • Chairman Triporati
Teaching Assistant




                                    Bhavik Joshi
                                  joshibhavik@gmail.com
                                http://about.me/bhavikjoshi
•Better Place (13th employee, first non-Israeli, non-Jewish, non ex-SAP, Asian employee)
• Berkeley/Columbia MBA class of 2008/09
• Co-founder: Berkeley Stanford Cleantech Conference Series (since 2007)
• 2000 – 2007 Enterprise Software
• 1998 – 2000 Tata Motors India




     •TA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
Alexander Osterwalder, Tina Seelig




8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley
• Semiconductors
• Supercomputers
• Consumer electronics                    • Ph.D. Neuroscience Stanford Med School
• Video games
• Enterprise software                     • Mgmt consultant Booz, Allen, Hamilton
• Military intelligence
                                          • Multimedia producer at Compaq Computer
Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia       • Founder multimedia companyBookBrowser.
Details at www.steveblank.com             • Exec Director Stanford Technology Ventures
                                            Program (STVP), EpiCenter
                                                      tseelig@stanford.edu
                                                             @tseelig
Course Assistant (CA’s)




    Thomas Haymore                           Stephanie Glass

•B.A. in Political Science              •MS MS&E 2010
• Stanford Law („06)
• J.D. Stanford Law („12)
thomas.haymore@gmail.com




    •CA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
Course Assistant (CA’s)




            Thomas Haymore                         Stephanie Glass

B.A. in Political Science
• Stanford Law („06)
                                              •MS MS&E 2012
• J.D. Stanford Law („12)


thomas.haymore@gmail.com                         srglass@stanford.edu




          •CA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
Mentors

• Mentors are people with real-world experience
• Mentors role is to:
  –   Help you “Get you out of the building”
  –   Share contacts
  –   Offer “Real-world” entrepreneurial advice
  –   Critical feedback
• You arrange your schedule for the mentors, not
  the other way around
Course Objective: Idea to a Business

• What does it take to go from idea to a business?
  – Business Model + Customer Development
  – Hypotheses testing of the business model(s)
  – Get “out of the building”
Course Objective: Simulate A Startup?

• Create the pressures, uncertainty, and challenges
  of a real startup
  – Our expectations are unreasonable, they require
    extraordinary effort
  – We expect failures, iterations and Pivots
  – Class is a “lab” - books/lectures are tools, not answers
  – Fail fast, learn quick, push you outside your comfort zone
Teaching team philosophy

• This class is taught using the “Startup Culture”
  – We‟re tough, direct, fair - you need to be the same
  – Startup culture has no hierarchy - in this class you are an
    entrepreneur - not a PI, lab mgr or center director
  – We‟re your biggest supporters – we want you to succeed
• Question us, challenge us, push us as hard as we
  push you
• We don‟t pretend to be domain experts, we know
  you are smarter than we are
Getting Out of The Building

• This class is not about our lectures
• The class is not about your attendance
• The class is about the work you do outside the
  building
• It‟s the difference between a vision and a
  hallucination
Our Expectations of You

• This is a full-contact, immersive class
   – All of you will be full participants – here and remotely
   – You will spend lots of time outside of your university
   – You all will do all the work assigned (and it is a lot
     more than you probably realize)
   – No “dine and dash”
• If you think you are not learning, or you all
  cannot commit the time, see your NSF program
  manager
Team Deliverables

• Each Week
  – Lessons Learned presentation 5 minutes
  – Updated Lean LaunchLab blog
  – Hours of “outside the building” learning


• December Presentation
  – 20 minute Lessons Learned Summary
What Will you Learn?

• Opportunity evaluation
• Search for a Business Model
• Customer Discovery and Validation
• Operating and decision making in chaos with
  insufficient data
• Ruthless pursuit of an objective by a team
The Course ‘By the Numbers’
•   4 Instructors, 1 TA, 15+ Mentors,
•   8 Lectures
•   8 10-minute presentations per class
•   1 Final 20 minute presentation
•   2 Textbooks

10-15 hours of work a week outside the classroom
This Class is Hard

• You can‟t pass by attending the lectures
• Your grade is determined by the work you do
  outside the class
• There‟s a lot of it
• You are dependent on group success –
  communication is critical
• You don‟t need to be friends you need to be
  partners
Class Logistics
Course Reading

• Business Model Generation
• Four Steps to the Epiphany
   • www.steveblank.com
Class Schedule
Eight (3 hour) Class Sessions:
•   1: Sept 1st - Introduction, Business Models, Customer Development
•   2: Sept 2nd – Value Proposition/Customer Segment
•   3: Sept 22nd – Channels
•   4: Sept 23rd - Demand Creation (Customer Relationships)
•   5: Oct 13th – Revenue Model
•   6: Oct 14th – Key Resources and Activities
•   7: Nov 11th - Cost Structure
•   8: Nov 12th – Fund Raising
9 & 10: Dec 1st / 2nd – Lessons Learned Presentations
Teams

• team size is 4 people
• You chose the roles (hint: no org chart)
• Present Weekly and for Final
  – Weekly lessons learned
  – Final is demo and summary
• Class is about discovery and fast iteration
Team Projects

• Any for-profit scalable startup
• If you are a domain expert, that’s your best bet
  (but not required)
• If you pick a web project, you have to build it
  (and there needs to be some novelty)
Team Deliverables - Presentation

• Each Week
  –   Lessons Learned presentation 10 minutes
  –   Updated business model canvas
  –   Update blog/wiki
  –   10‟s of hours of “outside the building” progress


• Final Presentation
  – 20 minute Lessons Learned Summary
Team Deliverables - Blog

• Each Week
  –   Business model canvas updates
  –   Interviews
  –   Photos/Videos
  –   A/B tests
  –   Strategy
Grading
     Individual - 15%                 Team - 85%
• Participation in class 15% • 40% out-of-the-building
                               progress as measured by
                               blog write-ups each week.

                            • 20% weekly team “lesson
                              learned” summaries

                            • 25% team final report


          Grade is on how much you learn
Grading
     Individual - 15%                 Team - 80%
• Participation in class 15% • 40% out-of-the-building
                               progress as measured by
                               blog write-ups each week.

                            • 20% weekly team “lesson
                              learned” summaries

                            • 25% team final report

You’re graded on how much learn, not how much you sell
Office Hours

•   With your team
•   Before and after class
•   Look at availability here
•   Get on the calendar
Intellectual Property - Suggestions
• Make sure your project is OK with your company
   – disclose to team what IP rights your company has to inventions
• You own what IP you brought to class with you
   – No team member has claim to anything you brought
• Your team jointly owns any IP developed for the class
   – If any of you decide to start a company based on the class, you
     own only what was developed and completed in the class
   – You have no claim for work done before or after the class quarter
   – If a subset of the team decides to start a company they do NOT
     “owe” anything to other team members for work done in and during
     the class
   – All team members are free to start the same company, without
     permission of the others
• You are agreeing to this unless the team decides in writing
  to do something different
Class Disclosure/NDA’s
• Successful startups are not about the original idea
   – It‟s about learning, discovery and execution
   – You will not be presenting your IP/technical details
• You get to see how previous teams solved problems by
  looking at their slides, notes and blogs
  Therefore:

• Your slides, notes and blogs will be public
• This is an open class. No non-disclosures
What’s A Company?
What’s A Company?

  A business organization which sells a
product or service in exchange for revenue
                 and profit
How Are Companies Organized?
How Are Companies Organized?

   Companies are organized around
         Business Models
What’s a Business Model?
What’s a Business Model?

 A business model describes all the parts
of the company necessary to make money
What About My Technology?
What About My Technology?

Your technology is one of the many
critical pieces necessary to build a
               company.
It is part of the “Value Proposition”
What About My Technology?

Customers don’t care about your technology
     They are trying to solve a problem
What’s A Startup?
What’s A Startup?

A startup is a temporary organization
 designed to search for a repeatable
    and scalable business model
How to Build A Startup

            Idea
      Business Model
      Size Opportunity
   Customer Development
How to Build A Startup

        Business   Size of the   Customer    Customer
Idea    Model(s)   Opportunity   Discovery   Validation
How to Build A Startup

        Size of the
         Business     Size of the
                       Business     Customer     Customer
Idea    Opportunity
         Model(s)     Opportunity
                       Model(s)     Discovery    Validation




       Theory                         Practice
How to Build A Startup

       Size of the
        Business     Size of the
                      Business      Customer          Customer
Idea   Opportunity
        Model(s)     Opportunity
                      Model(s)      Discovery         Validation




                                   • Web startups get the product
                                   in front of customers earlier
How to Build A Startup

       Size of the
        Business     Size of the
                      Business     Customer    Customer
Idea   Opportunity
        Model(s)     Opportunity
                      Model(s)     Discovery   Validation
buzz
group
A business model describes all
the parts of the company
necessary to make money
what are those parts? what
parts is a business model
composed of?
56
?   ?
Business
Model Canvas
to describe, challenge,
design, and invent
business models more
systematically
building
blocks
CUSTOMER SEGMENTS




                    images by JAM
VALUE PROPOSITIONS




                     images by JAM
CHANNELS




           images by JAM
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS




                     images by JAM
REVENUE STREAMS




                  images by JAM
KEY RESOURCES




                images by JAM
KEY ACTIVITIES




                 images by JAM
KEY PARTNERS




               images by JAM
COST STRUCTURE




                 images by JAM
key    value proposition       customer
            activities                           relationships




     key                                                     customer
partners                                                     segments




     cost                                                    revenue
structure         key                                        streams
            resources                        channels

                                                                 images by JAM
key    value proposition       customer
            activities                           relationships




     key                                                     customer
partners                                                     segments




     cost                                                    revenue
structure         key                                        streams
            resources                        channels

                                                                 images by JAM
images by JAM
CANVAS OVERLAY
KEY        KEY          OFFER         CUSTOMER      CUSTOMER
PARTNERS   ACTIVITIES                 RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS




           KEY                        CHANNELS
           RESOURCES




COST STRUCTURE                  REVENUE STREAMS




                                                       images by JAM
CANVAS OVERLAY
KEY        KEY          OFFER         CUSTOMER      CUSTOMER
PARTNERS   ACTIVITIES                 RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS




           KEY                        CHANNELS
           RESOURCES




COST STRUCTURE                  REVENUE STREAMS




                                                       images by JAM
Business Model Canvas
                    building
                    block                                            building
                                                                     block                 building
                                                                                           block
                          building
 building                 block
 block                                    building
                                          block

                   building
                   block                                  building
                                                          block

               building                                                    building
               block                                                       block




    building                   building              building                   building
    block                      block                 block                      block
illustration

               79
why should some of the
smartest scientists in the world
waste their time thinking about
a business model for coffee?
not just because most scientists
drink a lot of coffee. we can learn
a lot from innovative business
models across industries
how much did the cost of
home coffee consumption
change for Swiss households
over the last couple of years?
600%
to
800%
more
Nespresso
changed the
   business
 (model) for
   espresso
RESULTS
one of the fastest-
growing businesses in
the Nestlé group
average growth of
30% p.a. since 2000
over 3 billion CHF annual
revenue with 1 product line
(3.2 bio USD)
buzz group

             91
Discuss and describe how you
would design a business model
around Nespresso‟s invention
?       ?


        ?

    ?       ?



?               ?

                    94
Nespresso
                                            club
         production
                              Nespresso
                              machines


                              Nespresso
                                pods
         distribution
                                           Nespresso
          channels
                                             .com

                 production
coffee
                  facilites


                                          1x
     B2C                                  machine
 distribution                             sales


                                                       95
but Nespresso almost failed in
1987 due to a nonperforming
business model
Nespresso
 system

            joint venture
                 with
            manufacturer




                            97
what is the most powerful about
using a shared language, such as
the Business Model Canvas?
buzz group
?       ?


        ?

    ?       ?



?               ?

                    105
possible
alternatives
radiation-free
detection of     hospitals
breast cancer




                             107
medicaldevicem
proprietary IP
                 anufacturers




                           108
?       ?


        ?

    ?       ?



?               ?

                    109
But,
Realize They’re Hypotheses
9 Guesses


                            Guess
Guess    Guess
                                     Guess

                  Guess
        Guess               Guess



        Guess                Guess
How Does This Really Work?

Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class
  8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
I.I.T.Y.I.W.H.T.K.Y
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
  Leaders
  (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
Key Opinion
Leaders (KOLs)
•
•
•




•
•
•
Customer Development
The founders
     ^
Get Out of the Building and Search for
         the Business Model
The Customer Development Process



  Customer            Customer     Customer   Company
  Discovery           Validation   Creation   Building


              Pivot
The Minimum Viable Product (MVP)



  Customer            Customer     Customer    Company
  Discovery           Validation   Creation    Building


              Pivot




  •Smallest feature set that gets you the most …
      - orders, learning, feedback, failure…
A Pivot is the change of one or
more Business Model Canvas
Components
The Pivot



Customer            Customer     Customer   Company
Discovery           Validation   Creation   Building


            Pivot




•The heart of Customer Development
•Iteration without crisis
•Fast, agile and opportunistic
Pivot Cycle Time Matters



       Customer            Customer         Customer        Company
       Discovery           Validation       Creation        Building


                   Pivot




•Speed of cycle minimizes cash needs
•Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time
• Near instantaneous customer feedback drives feature set
186
Source: http://giffconstable.com/
The Customer Development Process
       Customer Discovery

  Customer        Customer       Customer      Company
  Discovery       Validation     Creation      Building




Bus Model       Extract          Test        Test         Pivot or
 Canvas       Hypotheses       Problem      Solution      Proceed
The Customer Development Process
       Customer Validation

 Customer        Customer           Customer         Company
 Discovery       Validation         Creation         Building




     Get Ready        Sell, Sell,                        Pivot or
                                       Positioning
      to Sell           Sell                             Proceed
Blog Your Progress
How?
• Customer Development
   – The Process
• Narrative
   –   Interviews
   –   Surveys
   –   Videos
   –   Prototypes
• Business Model Canvas
   – Scorekeeping
• Real-time Feedback
• Physical Reality Checks
   – Skype
   – Face-to-face
We Made Students
Blog Their Progress

It Changed Everything
Interview
Photos   Videos
Surveys
Interview
& Photos
Competitive
 Analysis
Key Findings
A/B Test
Results
Key Question
Strategy
Business Model Canvas
   as the Scorecard
Market Type

Four Types of Markets
Type of Market
               Changes Everything
Clone Market   Existing Market     Resegmented      New Market
                                      Market


• Market             • Sales               • Customers
   – Market Size         –   Sales Model     • Needs
   – Cost of Entry       –   Margins         • Adoption
   – Launch Type         –   Sales Cycle
   – Competitive         –   Chasm Width
     Barriers                              •Finance
                                              • Ongoing Capital
   – Positioning
                                              • Time to Profitability
Definitions: Four Types of Markets
  Clone Market   Existing Market     Resegmented   New Market
                                        Market

• Clone Market
   – Copy of a U.S. business model
• Existing Market
   – Faster/Better = High end
• Resegmented Market
   – Niche = marketing/branding driven
   – Cheaper = low end
• New Market
   – Cheaper/good enough, creates a new class of product/customer
   – Innovative/never existed before
Size of Opportunity
Market/Opportunity Analysis


How Big is It?: Market/Opportunity Analysis
  –   Identify a Customer and Market Need
  –   Size the Market
  –   Competitors
  –   Growth Potential
How Big is the Pie?
              Total Available Market



                       • How many people would want/need
                         the product?
                       • How large is the market be
                         (in $‟s) if they all bought?

Total Available Market •   How many units would that be?

                       How Do I Find Out?
                       • Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester
                       • Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
How Big is My Slice?
                Served Available Market


                         • How many people need/can use product?
                         • How many people have the money to
                           buy the product
  Total                  • How large would the market be (in $‟s)
Available    Served        if they all bought?
 Market
            Available    • How many units would that be?
             Market
                         How Do I Find Out?
                         • Talk to potential customers
How Much Can I Eat?
                          Target Market

                              • Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3?
                              • How many customers is that?
                              • How large is the market be
                                (in $‟s) if they all bought?
  Total    Served
                              • How many units would that be?
Available Available
 Market    Market
                      Target
                      Market How Do I Find Out?
                              • Talk to potential customers
                              • Identify and talk to channel partners
                              • Identify and talk to competitors
Market Size: Summary

• Market Size Questions:
  – How big can this market be?
  – How much of it can we get?
   – Market growth rate
   – Market structure (Mature or in flux?)
• Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales Channel
• Next important: Market size by competitive approximation
   – Wall Street analyst reports are great
• And : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner
Team Deliverable by Tomorrow

1.   Hypotheses for each part of business model
2.   Test for each of the hypotheses
          What constitutes a pass/fail signal for the test (e.g. at
          what point would you say your hypotheses
          wasn‟t even close to correct?
3.   Plan to get out of the building to test the hypotheses

•    Summarized in a 5 Minute PowerPoint Presentation
     –   Business Model Canvas
     –   Market Size
     –   Getting out of the building plan


                 Don’t Over Think Your
                      Hypotheses
Sweet Sensors


Glucose Monitor:                                                               We have developed a
                                                                               novel technology to use
• Widely available                                                             any glucose monitor
• Cheap                                                                        without modifications to
• Quantitative                                                                 detect a wide range of
  information                                                                  non-glucose targets at
• $10 billion market                                                           very low concentrations
                                                                               (such as diseases
However, it can detect                                                         (e.g., TB), heavy metal
only one target:                                                               ions
glucose                                                                        (e.g., Pb, Hg), organic
and at very high                                                               toxins, bacteria, viruses
concentrations                                                                 and cancers)


                         Yu Xiang and Yi Lu, Nature Chem. 3, 697-703 (2011).
Examples
Market size

  Total available
market = $1.2 billion           - 300 million patients worldwide

                                - Required HbA1C testing every
                                  60-90 days
    Serviceable Available
    Market = $600 million       - Available in-home HbA1C tests today
                                  are $100/10 tests

            Target market       - Assuming $1 per test, TAM = $1.2 billion
            = $120 million
                                - Assuming 50% people have the access
                                  to a HbA1c test, SAM = $600 million

                                - Assuming we can capture 20% of SAM
                                  (high-end diabetics and early adopters),
                                  Target market = $120 million
Market Size

                              • Growing market
                                  – Aging population
                                  – Living Style & Diets
Total Available market            – Chronic disease
  170M (US & EU5)
        $25B                  • Driving factors
                                  – Healthcare costs
                                  – Reimbursement
                                  – Healthcare labor shortage

           Target market
           3.5M (Resistant Hypertension)
           $500M
Business Model Canvas
                                                                                  Yi Lu, Tian Lan
                                         Sweet Sensors                            Neil Kane
                                                                                  Chris Sorensen




                        Conferences

                        Product R&D                                                       Diabetics
                                         At home               Product supports
Glucose monitor         QC                                                                Clinicians (in rural area)
                                         Convenient            Patient
    manufacturers
                        Marketing                              network/community          Triage nurses
                                         Less exposure to
Kit manufacturers                        infectious diseases                              Pre-diabetics
                                         in the hospital
Reagent suppliers
                                         Cheaper

                                         More frequent         Retailers (Walgreen)
                        IP

                        Personnel        Better indicator of   Online vendors (Amazon)
                                         health (diabetic
                                         management)           Direct sales


                    Reagents

                    Manufacture
                                                                       Disposable test kit (used repeatedly
                    Licensing                                          on a regular basis)
                    FDA certification?
Action Plan
                                                                                  Yi Lu, Tian Lan
                                         Sweet Sensors                            Neil Kane
                                                                                  Chris Sorensen




                        Conferences

                        Product R&D                                                       Diabetics
                                         At home               Product supports
Glucose monitor         QC                                                                Clinicians (in rural area)
                                         Convenient            Patient
    manufacturers
                        Marketing                              network/community          Triage nurses
                                         Less exposure to
Kit manufacturers                        infectious diseases                              Pre-diabetics
                                         in the hospital
Reagent suppliers
                                         Cheaper

                                         More frequent         Retailers (Walgreen)
                        IP

                        Personnel        Better indicator of   Online vendors (Amazon)
                                         health (diabetic
                                         management)           Direct sales


                    Reagents

                    Manufacture
                                                                       Disposable test kit (used repeatedly
                    Licensing                                          on a regular basis)
                    FDA certification?
The Business Model Canvas



                                                                           Technical Assistance
cGMP manufacturer       SOPs for precursors
                                                                           (Image Atlas)            Radiopharmacies
Radiopharmacies         and drugs                Accessibility (RCY)       FDA regulatory support
Nuclear Medicine and    Recruit clinical sites   Purity                                             Equipment producers
Radiology               In vivo animal studies   Speed
departments             Develop regulatory       PET/SPECT                                          Prescribing physicians
                        plan for pre IND         Multiplatform
                        meeting                                              Technical assistance
                                                 Sensitivity (nca)                                  Radiologist who
                        ID cGMP CRO              Specific compounds
  Pharmaceutical                                                                                    perform studies
                        Fund-raising
  development
  companies
                                                       General
                        IP                         methodology for
                        PoP data                                           Direct sales of            Drug developers
                                                  adding fluorine to
                                                                           precursor
                                                 lead compounds of
                         IP                            interest
                         PoP data                                          R&D and clinical
                                                                           studies presented in      Radiologists
                         Regulatory plan
                         Understanding of                                  journals and meetings
                         the regulatory
                         process



                                                              Sales of intermediates
    Contract cGMP precursor manufacture
    Salary, Rents
                                                              Technology license
    Clinical trials
                                                              Product license (royalty)
The Business Model Canvas



                                                                           Technical Assistance
cGMP manufacturer       SOPs for precursors
                                                                           (Image Atlas)             Radiopharmacies
Radiopharmacies         and drugs
                                                 Accessibility (RCY)       FDA regulatory support
Nuclear Medicine and    Recruit clinical sites
                                                 Purity                                              Equipment producers
Radiology               In vivo animal studies
                        Develop regulatory       Speed
departments                                      PET/SPECT                                           Prescribing physicians
                        plan for pre IND
                        meeting                  Multiplatform               Technical assistance
                                                 Sensitivity (nca)                                   Radiologist who
                        ID cGMP CRO
  Pharmaceutical                                 Specific compounds                                  perform studies
                        Fund-raising
  development
  companies
                                                        General            Direct sales of
                        IP                          methodology for        precursor
                        PoP data                   adding fluorine to                                  Drug developers
                                                  lead compounds of        R&D and clinical
                         IP                             interest           studies presented in
                         PoP data                                          journals and meetings      Radiologists
                         Regulatory plan
                         Understanding of                                  Sales of precursor
                         the regulatory                                    through global finished
                         process                                           pharmaceutical
                                                                           distributor


                                                              Sales of intermediates
    Contract cGMP precursor manufacture
    Salary, Rents
                                                              Technology license
    Clinical trials
                                                              Product license (royalty)
Critical Success Factors

• Validation of the need
  – By talking to diabetic patients, clinician and nurses
• Validation of the customer segmentation
  – By talking to glucose monitor and kit manufactures
• Evidence of market accessibility
  – By talking to glucose monitor and kit distributors
Backup
Customer Discovery



Bus Model     Extract      Test     Test      Pivot or
 Canvas     Hypotheses   Problem   Solution   Proceed
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model       Extract          Test          Test      Pivot or
 Canvas       Hypotheses       Problem        Solution   Proceed


            • TAM/SAM
            •Product MVP
            • Customers
            •Channel
            •Market Type
            • Customer Relationships: Get/Keep/Grow
            • Key Resources
            • Partners
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model        Extract           Test           Test      Pivot or
 Canvas        Hypotheses        Problem         Solution   Proceed


             • TAM/SAM
             •Low Fidelity MVP
             • Customers/Source
             • Channel
             •Market Type
             • Customer Relationships: Acquire/Activate
             •Traffic Partners
             • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model           Extract                Test          Test      Pivot or
 Canvas           Hypotheses             Problem        Solution   Proceed


            •TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                  •Customer Contacts
            • Customers           •Problem Understanding
            • Channel
            •Market Type          • Customer Understanding
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                  •Market Knowledge
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model           Extract                Test            Test      Pivot or
 Canvas           Hypotheses             Problem          Solution   Proceed


            •TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                  •Customer Engagement
            • Customers           •Test Low Fidelity MVP
            • Channel
            •Market Type          • Customer Understanding
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                  •Traffic & Competitive Analysis
            • Pricing
Customer Discovery - Physical



Bus Model         Extract           Test          Test           Pivot or
 Canvas         Hypotheses        Problem        Solution        Proceed



            • TAM/SAM
            • Low Fidelity MVP
                                       •Update Bus Model
            • Customers                •Create Prototype/Prod Presentation
            • Channel
            •Market Type               •Test Solution with Customer
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                       • Update Business Model
            • Pricing                  • 1st Advisory Board Members
Customer Discovery - Web



Bus Model          Extract                       Test                  Test          Pivot or
 Canvas          Hypotheses                    Problem                Solution       Proceed



             • TAM/SAM             • Customer Engagement
             • Low Fidelity MVP    • Test Low Fidelity MVP
                                                                 • Update Bus Model
             • Customers           • Customer Understanding      •Test High Fidelity MVP
             • Channel             • Traffic & Competitive Analysis
             •Market Type                                        • Measure Customer Behavior
             •Cust Relationships
             • Traffic Partners
                                                                 • Update Business Model
             • Pricing                                           • 1st Advisory Board Members
Customer Discovery – Web/Physical



Bus Model         Extract                       Test                  Test           Pivot or
 Canvas         Hypotheses                    Problem                Solution        Proceed



            • TAM/SAM             • Customer Engagement
            • Low Fidelity MVP    • Test Low Fidelity MVP
                                                                         Verify the:
            • Customers           • Customer Understanding              •Value Prop
            • Channel             • Traffic & Competitive Analysis
            •Market Type                                                •Cust Segment
            •Cust Relationships
            • Traffic Partners
                                                                        •Cust Relationships
            • Pricing                                                   • Channel
                                                                        • Revenue Model
                                                                        • Pivot or Proceed
Customer Validation - Web


Get Ready           Sell, Sell,                 Pivot or
                                  Positioning
 to Sell              Sell                      Proceed


            Pivot
Customer Validation - Physical


     Get Ready      Sell, Sell, S                 Pivot or
                                    Positioning
      to Sell            ell                      Proceed




•Craft Positioning
•Develop Sales Materials
•Hire “Sales Closer”
•Sales Channel Action Plan
• Refine the Sales Roadmap
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Web


    Get Ready         Sell, Sell,                 Pivot or
                                    Positioning
     to Sell            Sell                      Proceed




•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans and Tools
• Build High Fidelity MVP
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Physical


           Get Ready               Sell, Sell,                    Pivot or
                                                    Positioning
            to Sell                  Sell                         Proceed



•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans
• Build High Fidelity MVP     •Find Earlyvangelists
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief
                              • Test Sell – Out of the Building
• Formalize advisory board    • Refine Sales Roadmap
                              • Test Sell Channel Partners
Customer Validation - Web


           Get Ready              Sell, Sell, S                       Pivot or
                                                   Positioning
            to Sell                    ell                            Proceed



•Craft Positioning
•Acquire/Activate Plans       •Prepare Optimization Plans & Tools
• Build High Fidelity MVP
• Build Metrics Toolset
                              • Out of the building Activation Test
• Hire data analytics chief   • Measure and Optimize Results
• Formalize advisory board
                              • Test Sell Traffic Partners
Customer Validation - Physical/Web


                Get Ready                Sell, Sell,                                  Pivot or
                                                                      Positioning
                 to Sell                   Sell                                       Proceed



•Craft Positioning
• Acquire/Activate Plans      • Prepare Optimization Plans            • Company Positioning
• Build High Fidelity MVP     • Out of the building Activation Test
                              • Measure and Optimize Results
                                                                      • Product Positioning
• Build Metrics Toolset
• Hire data analytics chief   • Test Sell Traffic Partners            • Validate Positioning
• Formalize advisory board
Customer Validation - Physical/Web


                Get Ready              Sell, Sell, S                                    Pivot or
                                                                      Positioning
                 to Sell                    ell                                         Proceed



•Craft Positioning
• Acquire/Activate Plans      • Prepare Optimization Plans                   • Assemble Data
• Build High Fidelity MVP     • Out of the building Activation Test          • Validate Business Model
• Build Metrics Toolset       • Measure and Optimize Results
• Hire data analytics chief   • Test Sell Traffic Partners                   • Validate Financial Model
• Formalize advisory board
                                                                             • Pivot or Proceed

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Lecture 1 intro bus model cust dev 120411

  • 1. The Lean LaunchPad Lecture 1: Business Models and Customer Development Steve Blank Jon Feiber Ann Miura-Ko John Burke Jerry Engel Jim Hornthal Oren Jacob
  • 2. This Session • The teaching team • Course objective(s) • Teaching team philosophy • Our expectations of you
  • 4. Steve Blank,Jon Feiber, John Burke • BS CS/Astro Physics U of • Yale BS EE 8 startups in Silicon Valley Colorado • McKinsey and Co. • Semiconductors • VP Networking SUN • Charles River Ventures • V.C. @ MDV since 1991 • Stanford Ph.D MS&E • Supercomputers • TA: E145, Mayfield • Consumer electronics • Fellows, MS&E 273 V.C. @ Floodgate • Video games ann@floodgate.com • Enterprise software @annimaniac • Military intelligence sblank@stanford.edu @sgblank www.steveblank.com
  • 5. Steve Blank, Jon Feiber, John Burke 8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley • Semiconductors • Supercomputers • Consumer electronics • BS CS/Astro Physics U of Colorado • Yale BS EE Co. • McKinsey and • Video games • Enterprise software • 50 employee, VP Networking @ Sun • Charles River Ventures th • Military intelligence • Stanford Ph.D MS&E • V.C. @ MDV since 1991 • V.C. @ Floodgate Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia jdf@mdv.com ann@floodgate.com Details at www.steveblank.com @annimaniac
  • 6. Steve Blank, Jon Feiber, John Burke 8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley • Semiconductors • Supercomputers • Consumer electronics • BS CS/Astro • BSMechEngineering U.C. Berkeley, • Video games Physics U of • Enterprise software Colorado • BA Economics U.C. Santa Cruz, • Military intelligence • 50th employee, • MBA Harvard Business School VP Networking Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia @ Su • Founder BMI Software Details at www.steveblank.com • VC at ABS Ventures • V.C. @ MDV since 1991 • Co-founder True Ventures • jdf@mdv.com jburke@trueventures.com @andemca
  • 7. Alexander Osterwalder, Tina Seelig • Ph.D. in Management Information Systems (MIS) University of Lausanne Ph.D. Neuroscience Stanford Med School • Founder, Business Model Foundry • Mgmt consultant Booz, Allen, Hamilton • Author Business Model Generation • Multimedia producer at Compaq Computer • Co-founder, The Constellation for AIDS • Founder multimedia competence (NGO) companyBookBrowser. • Exec Director Stanford Technology Ventures Program (STVP), EpiCenter • tseelig@stanford.edu • @tseelig
  • 8. Oren Jacob, Jim Hornthal • CMEA Capital • Triporati • CEO, stealth startup • EIR, August Capita • lCTO, Pixar • Director, Studio Tools, Pixar • Technical Director, Finding Nemo
  • 9. Oren Jacob, Jim Hornthal •CTO Pixar • CMEA Capital • Chairman Triporati
  • 10. Teaching Assistant Bhavik Joshi joshibhavik@gmail.com http://about.me/bhavikjoshi •Better Place (13th employee, first non-Israeli, non-Jewish, non ex-SAP, Asian employee) • Berkeley/Columbia MBA class of 2008/09 • Co-founder: Berkeley Stanford Cleantech Conference Series (since 2007) • 2000 – 2007 Enterprise Software • 1998 – 2000 Tata Motors India •TA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
  • 11. Alexander Osterwalder, Tina Seelig 8 startups - 32 years in Silicon Valley • Semiconductors • Supercomputers • Consumer electronics • Ph.D. Neuroscience Stanford Med School • Video games • Enterprise software • Mgmt consultant Booz, Allen, Hamilton • Military intelligence • Multimedia producer at Compaq Computer Teach: Stanford, Berkeley, Columbia • Founder multimedia companyBookBrowser. Details at www.steveblank.com • Exec Director Stanford Technology Ventures Program (STVP), EpiCenter tseelig@stanford.edu @tseelig
  • 12. Course Assistant (CA’s) Thomas Haymore Stephanie Glass •B.A. in Political Science •MS MS&E 2010 • Stanford Law („06) • J.D. Stanford Law („12) thomas.haymore@gmail.com •CA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
  • 13. Course Assistant (CA’s) Thomas Haymore Stephanie Glass B.A. in Political Science • Stanford Law („06) •MS MS&E 2012 • J.D. Stanford Law („12) thomas.haymore@gmail.com srglass@stanford.edu •CA’s role: Class/lecture questions, Grading and attendance
  • 14. Mentors • Mentors are people with real-world experience • Mentors role is to: – Help you “Get you out of the building” – Share contacts – Offer “Real-world” entrepreneurial advice – Critical feedback • You arrange your schedule for the mentors, not the other way around
  • 15. Course Objective: Idea to a Business • What does it take to go from idea to a business? – Business Model + Customer Development – Hypotheses testing of the business model(s) – Get “out of the building”
  • 16. Course Objective: Simulate A Startup? • Create the pressures, uncertainty, and challenges of a real startup – Our expectations are unreasonable, they require extraordinary effort – We expect failures, iterations and Pivots – Class is a “lab” - books/lectures are tools, not answers – Fail fast, learn quick, push you outside your comfort zone
  • 17. Teaching team philosophy • This class is taught using the “Startup Culture” – We‟re tough, direct, fair - you need to be the same – Startup culture has no hierarchy - in this class you are an entrepreneur - not a PI, lab mgr or center director – We‟re your biggest supporters – we want you to succeed • Question us, challenge us, push us as hard as we push you • We don‟t pretend to be domain experts, we know you are smarter than we are
  • 18. Getting Out of The Building • This class is not about our lectures • The class is not about your attendance • The class is about the work you do outside the building • It‟s the difference between a vision and a hallucination
  • 19. Our Expectations of You • This is a full-contact, immersive class – All of you will be full participants – here and remotely – You will spend lots of time outside of your university – You all will do all the work assigned (and it is a lot more than you probably realize) – No “dine and dash” • If you think you are not learning, or you all cannot commit the time, see your NSF program manager
  • 20. Team Deliverables • Each Week – Lessons Learned presentation 5 minutes – Updated Lean LaunchLab blog – Hours of “outside the building” learning • December Presentation – 20 minute Lessons Learned Summary
  • 21. What Will you Learn? • Opportunity evaluation • Search for a Business Model • Customer Discovery and Validation • Operating and decision making in chaos with insufficient data • Ruthless pursuit of an objective by a team
  • 22. The Course ‘By the Numbers’ • 4 Instructors, 1 TA, 15+ Mentors, • 8 Lectures • 8 10-minute presentations per class • 1 Final 20 minute presentation • 2 Textbooks 10-15 hours of work a week outside the classroom
  • 23. This Class is Hard • You can‟t pass by attending the lectures • Your grade is determined by the work you do outside the class • There‟s a lot of it • You are dependent on group success – communication is critical • You don‟t need to be friends you need to be partners
  • 25. Course Reading • Business Model Generation • Four Steps to the Epiphany • www.steveblank.com
  • 26. Class Schedule Eight (3 hour) Class Sessions: • 1: Sept 1st - Introduction, Business Models, Customer Development • 2: Sept 2nd – Value Proposition/Customer Segment • 3: Sept 22nd – Channels • 4: Sept 23rd - Demand Creation (Customer Relationships) • 5: Oct 13th – Revenue Model • 6: Oct 14th – Key Resources and Activities • 7: Nov 11th - Cost Structure • 8: Nov 12th – Fund Raising 9 & 10: Dec 1st / 2nd – Lessons Learned Presentations
  • 27. Teams • team size is 4 people • You chose the roles (hint: no org chart) • Present Weekly and for Final – Weekly lessons learned – Final is demo and summary • Class is about discovery and fast iteration
  • 28. Team Projects • Any for-profit scalable startup • If you are a domain expert, that’s your best bet (but not required) • If you pick a web project, you have to build it (and there needs to be some novelty)
  • 29. Team Deliverables - Presentation • Each Week – Lessons Learned presentation 10 minutes – Updated business model canvas – Update blog/wiki – 10‟s of hours of “outside the building” progress • Final Presentation – 20 minute Lessons Learned Summary
  • 30. Team Deliverables - Blog • Each Week – Business model canvas updates – Interviews – Photos/Videos – A/B tests – Strategy
  • 31. Grading Individual - 15% Team - 85% • Participation in class 15% • 40% out-of-the-building progress as measured by blog write-ups each week. • 20% weekly team “lesson learned” summaries • 25% team final report Grade is on how much you learn
  • 32. Grading Individual - 15% Team - 80% • Participation in class 15% • 40% out-of-the-building progress as measured by blog write-ups each week. • 20% weekly team “lesson learned” summaries • 25% team final report You’re graded on how much learn, not how much you sell
  • 33. Office Hours • With your team • Before and after class • Look at availability here • Get on the calendar
  • 34. Intellectual Property - Suggestions • Make sure your project is OK with your company – disclose to team what IP rights your company has to inventions • You own what IP you brought to class with you – No team member has claim to anything you brought • Your team jointly owns any IP developed for the class – If any of you decide to start a company based on the class, you own only what was developed and completed in the class – You have no claim for work done before or after the class quarter – If a subset of the team decides to start a company they do NOT “owe” anything to other team members for work done in and during the class – All team members are free to start the same company, without permission of the others • You are agreeing to this unless the team decides in writing to do something different
  • 35. Class Disclosure/NDA’s • Successful startups are not about the original idea – It‟s about learning, discovery and execution – You will not be presenting your IP/technical details • You get to see how previous teams solved problems by looking at their slides, notes and blogs Therefore: • Your slides, notes and blogs will be public • This is an open class. No non-disclosures
  • 37. What’s A Company? A business organization which sells a product or service in exchange for revenue and profit
  • 38. How Are Companies Organized?
  • 39. How Are Companies Organized? Companies are organized around Business Models
  • 41. What’s a Business Model? A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money
  • 42. What About My Technology?
  • 43. What About My Technology? Your technology is one of the many critical pieces necessary to build a company. It is part of the “Value Proposition”
  • 44. What About My Technology? Customers don’t care about your technology They are trying to solve a problem
  • 46. What’s A Startup? A startup is a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
  • 47. How to Build A Startup Idea Business Model Size Opportunity Customer Development
  • 48. How to Build A Startup Business Size of the Customer Customer Idea Model(s) Opportunity Discovery Validation
  • 49. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation Theory Practice
  • 50. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation • Web startups get the product in front of customers earlier
  • 51. How to Build A Startup Size of the Business Size of the Business Customer Customer Idea Opportunity Model(s) Opportunity Model(s) Discovery Validation
  • 53.
  • 54. A business model describes all the parts of the company necessary to make money
  • 55. what are those parts? what parts is a business model composed of?
  • 56. 56
  • 57. ? ?
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 62. to describe, challenge, design, and invent business models more systematically
  • 64. CUSTOMER SEGMENTS images by JAM
  • 65. VALUE PROPOSITIONS images by JAM
  • 66. CHANNELS images by JAM
  • 67. CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS images by JAM
  • 68. REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 69. KEY RESOURCES images by JAM
  • 70. KEY ACTIVITIES images by JAM
  • 71. KEY PARTNERS images by JAM
  • 72. COST STRUCTURE images by JAM
  • 73. key value proposition customer activities relationships key customer partners segments cost revenue structure key streams resources channels images by JAM
  • 74. key value proposition customer activities relationships key customer partners segments cost revenue structure key streams resources channels images by JAM
  • 76. CANVAS OVERLAY KEY KEY OFFER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER PARTNERS ACTIVITIES RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS KEY CHANNELS RESOURCES COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 77. CANVAS OVERLAY KEY KEY OFFER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER PARTNERS ACTIVITIES RELATIONSHIPS SEGMENTS KEY CHANNELS RESOURCES COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS images by JAM
  • 78. Business Model Canvas building block building block building block building building block block building block building block building block building building block block building building building building block block block block
  • 80.
  • 81. why should some of the smartest scientists in the world waste their time thinking about a business model for coffee?
  • 82. not just because most scientists drink a lot of coffee. we can learn a lot from innovative business models across industries
  • 83. how much did the cost of home coffee consumption change for Swiss households over the last couple of years?
  • 85.
  • 86. Nespresso changed the business (model) for espresso
  • 88. one of the fastest- growing businesses in the Nestlé group
  • 89. average growth of 30% p.a. since 2000
  • 90. over 3 billion CHF annual revenue with 1 product line (3.2 bio USD)
  • 92. Discuss and describe how you would design a business model around Nespresso‟s invention
  • 93.
  • 94. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 94
  • 95. Nespresso club production Nespresso machines Nespresso pods distribution Nespresso channels .com production coffee facilites 1x B2C machine distribution sales 95
  • 96. but Nespresso almost failed in 1987 due to a nonperforming business model
  • 97. Nespresso system joint venture with manufacturer 97
  • 98.
  • 99. what is the most powerful about using a shared language, such as the Business Model Canvas?
  • 100.
  • 101.
  • 102.
  • 104.
  • 105. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 105
  • 107. radiation-free detection of hospitals breast cancer 107
  • 108. medicaldevicem proprietary IP anufacturers 108
  • 109. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 109
  • 110.
  • 112. 9 Guesses Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess Guess
  • 113. How Does This Really Work? Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class 8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
  • 114.
  • 115.
  • 117.
  • 118.
  • 119.
  • 120.
  • 121.
  • 122.
  • 123.
  • 124.
  • 125.
  • 126.
  • 127.
  • 128.
  • 129.
  • 131. Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs)
  • 137.
  • 138.
  • 139.
  • 140.
  • 141.
  • 142.
  • 143.
  • 144.
  • 145.
  • 146.
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  • 170.
  • 171.
  • 172.
  • 173.
  • 174.
  • 175.
  • 176.
  • 177.
  • 178.
  • 179.
  • 180. Customer Development The founders ^ Get Out of the Building and Search for the Business Model
  • 181. The Customer Development Process Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot
  • 182. The Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •Smallest feature set that gets you the most … - orders, learning, feedback, failure…
  • 183. A Pivot is the change of one or more Business Model Canvas Components
  • 184. The Pivot Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •The heart of Customer Development •Iteration without crisis •Fast, agile and opportunistic
  • 185. Pivot Cycle Time Matters Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Pivot •Speed of cycle minimizes cash needs •Minimum feature set speeds up cycle time • Near instantaneous customer feedback drives feature set
  • 187. The Customer Development Process Customer Discovery Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed
  • 188. The Customer Development Process Customer Validation Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Get Ready Sell, Sell, Pivot or Positioning to Sell Sell Proceed
  • 190. How? • Customer Development – The Process • Narrative – Interviews – Surveys – Videos – Prototypes • Business Model Canvas – Scorekeeping • Real-time Feedback • Physical Reality Checks – Skype – Face-to-face
  • 191. We Made Students Blog Their Progress It Changed Everything
  • 193. Photos Videos
  • 201. Business Model Canvas as the Scorecard
  • 202. Market Type Four Types of Markets
  • 203. Type of Market Changes Everything Clone Market Existing Market Resegmented New Market Market • Market • Sales • Customers – Market Size – Sales Model • Needs – Cost of Entry – Margins • Adoption – Launch Type – Sales Cycle – Competitive – Chasm Width Barriers •Finance • Ongoing Capital – Positioning • Time to Profitability
  • 204. Definitions: Four Types of Markets Clone Market Existing Market Resegmented New Market Market • Clone Market – Copy of a U.S. business model • Existing Market – Faster/Better = High end • Resegmented Market – Niche = marketing/branding driven – Cheaper = low end • New Market – Cheaper/good enough, creates a new class of product/customer – Innovative/never existed before
  • 206. Market/Opportunity Analysis How Big is It?: Market/Opportunity Analysis – Identify a Customer and Market Need – Size the Market – Competitors – Growth Potential
  • 207. How Big is the Pie? Total Available Market • How many people would want/need the product? • How large is the market be (in $‟s) if they all bought? Total Available Market • How many units would that be? How Do I Find Out? • Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester • Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
  • 208. How Big is My Slice? Served Available Market • How many people need/can use product? • How many people have the money to buy the product Total • How large would the market be (in $‟s) Available Served if they all bought? Market Available • How many units would that be? Market How Do I Find Out? • Talk to potential customers
  • 209. How Much Can I Eat? Target Market • Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3? • How many customers is that? • How large is the market be (in $‟s) if they all bought? Total Served • How many units would that be? Available Available Market Market Target Market How Do I Find Out? • Talk to potential customers • Identify and talk to channel partners • Identify and talk to competitors
  • 210. Market Size: Summary • Market Size Questions: – How big can this market be? – How much of it can we get? – Market growth rate – Market structure (Mature or in flux?) • Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales Channel • Next important: Market size by competitive approximation – Wall Street analyst reports are great • And : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner
  • 211. Team Deliverable by Tomorrow 1. Hypotheses for each part of business model 2. Test for each of the hypotheses What constitutes a pass/fail signal for the test (e.g. at what point would you say your hypotheses wasn‟t even close to correct? 3. Plan to get out of the building to test the hypotheses • Summarized in a 5 Minute PowerPoint Presentation – Business Model Canvas – Market Size – Getting out of the building plan Don’t Over Think Your Hypotheses
  • 212. Sweet Sensors Glucose Monitor: We have developed a novel technology to use • Widely available any glucose monitor • Cheap without modifications to • Quantitative detect a wide range of information non-glucose targets at • $10 billion market very low concentrations (such as diseases However, it can detect (e.g., TB), heavy metal only one target: ions glucose (e.g., Pb, Hg), organic and at very high toxins, bacteria, viruses concentrations and cancers) Yu Xiang and Yi Lu, Nature Chem. 3, 697-703 (2011).
  • 214. Market size Total available market = $1.2 billion - 300 million patients worldwide - Required HbA1C testing every 60-90 days Serviceable Available Market = $600 million - Available in-home HbA1C tests today are $100/10 tests Target market - Assuming $1 per test, TAM = $1.2 billion = $120 million - Assuming 50% people have the access to a HbA1c test, SAM = $600 million - Assuming we can capture 20% of SAM (high-end diabetics and early adopters), Target market = $120 million
  • 215. Market Size • Growing market – Aging population – Living Style & Diets Total Available market – Chronic disease 170M (US & EU5) $25B • Driving factors – Healthcare costs – Reimbursement – Healthcare labor shortage Target market 3.5M (Resistant Hypertension) $500M
  • 216. Business Model Canvas Yi Lu, Tian Lan Sweet Sensors Neil Kane Chris Sorensen Conferences Product R&D Diabetics At home Product supports Glucose monitor QC Clinicians (in rural area) Convenient Patient manufacturers Marketing network/community Triage nurses Less exposure to Kit manufacturers infectious diseases Pre-diabetics in the hospital Reagent suppliers Cheaper More frequent Retailers (Walgreen) IP Personnel Better indicator of Online vendors (Amazon) health (diabetic management) Direct sales Reagents Manufacture Disposable test kit (used repeatedly Licensing on a regular basis) FDA certification?
  • 217. Action Plan Yi Lu, Tian Lan Sweet Sensors Neil Kane Chris Sorensen Conferences Product R&D Diabetics At home Product supports Glucose monitor QC Clinicians (in rural area) Convenient Patient manufacturers Marketing network/community Triage nurses Less exposure to Kit manufacturers infectious diseases Pre-diabetics in the hospital Reagent suppliers Cheaper More frequent Retailers (Walgreen) IP Personnel Better indicator of Online vendors (Amazon) health (diabetic management) Direct sales Reagents Manufacture Disposable test kit (used repeatedly Licensing on a regular basis) FDA certification?
  • 218. The Business Model Canvas Technical Assistance cGMP manufacturer SOPs for precursors (Image Atlas) Radiopharmacies Radiopharmacies and drugs Accessibility (RCY) FDA regulatory support Nuclear Medicine and Recruit clinical sites Purity Equipment producers Radiology In vivo animal studies Speed departments Develop regulatory PET/SPECT Prescribing physicians plan for pre IND Multiplatform meeting Technical assistance Sensitivity (nca) Radiologist who ID cGMP CRO Specific compounds Pharmaceutical perform studies Fund-raising development companies General IP methodology for PoP data Direct sales of Drug developers adding fluorine to precursor lead compounds of IP interest PoP data R&D and clinical studies presented in Radiologists Regulatory plan Understanding of journals and meetings the regulatory process Sales of intermediates Contract cGMP precursor manufacture Salary, Rents Technology license Clinical trials Product license (royalty)
  • 219. The Business Model Canvas Technical Assistance cGMP manufacturer SOPs for precursors (Image Atlas) Radiopharmacies Radiopharmacies and drugs Accessibility (RCY) FDA regulatory support Nuclear Medicine and Recruit clinical sites Purity Equipment producers Radiology In vivo animal studies Develop regulatory Speed departments PET/SPECT Prescribing physicians plan for pre IND meeting Multiplatform Technical assistance Sensitivity (nca) Radiologist who ID cGMP CRO Pharmaceutical Specific compounds perform studies Fund-raising development companies General Direct sales of IP methodology for precursor PoP data adding fluorine to Drug developers lead compounds of R&D and clinical IP interest studies presented in PoP data journals and meetings Radiologists Regulatory plan Understanding of Sales of precursor the regulatory through global finished process pharmaceutical distributor Sales of intermediates Contract cGMP precursor manufacture Salary, Rents Technology license Clinical trials Product license (royalty)
  • 220. Critical Success Factors • Validation of the need – By talking to diabetic patients, clinician and nurses • Validation of the customer segmentation – By talking to glucose monitor and kit manufactures • Evidence of market accessibility – By talking to glucose monitor and kit distributors
  • 221. Backup
  • 222. Customer Discovery Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed
  • 223. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed • TAM/SAM •Product MVP • Customers •Channel •Market Type • Customer Relationships: Get/Keep/Grow • Key Resources • Partners • Pricing
  • 224. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed • TAM/SAM •Low Fidelity MVP • Customers/Source • Channel •Market Type • Customer Relationships: Acquire/Activate •Traffic Partners • Pricing
  • 225. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed •TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Customer Contacts • Customers •Problem Understanding • Channel •Market Type • Customer Understanding •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Market Knowledge • Pricing
  • 226. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed •TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Customer Engagement • Customers •Test Low Fidelity MVP • Channel •Market Type • Customer Understanding •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Traffic & Competitive Analysis • Pricing
  • 227. Customer Discovery - Physical Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed • TAM/SAM • Low Fidelity MVP •Update Bus Model • Customers •Create Prototype/Prod Presentation • Channel •Market Type •Test Solution with Customer •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners • Update Business Model • Pricing • 1st Advisory Board Members
  • 228. Customer Discovery - Web Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed • TAM/SAM • Customer Engagement • Low Fidelity MVP • Test Low Fidelity MVP • Update Bus Model • Customers • Customer Understanding •Test High Fidelity MVP • Channel • Traffic & Competitive Analysis •Market Type • Measure Customer Behavior •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners • Update Business Model • Pricing • 1st Advisory Board Members
  • 229. Customer Discovery – Web/Physical Bus Model Extract Test Test Pivot or Canvas Hypotheses Problem Solution Proceed • TAM/SAM • Customer Engagement • Low Fidelity MVP • Test Low Fidelity MVP Verify the: • Customers • Customer Understanding •Value Prop • Channel • Traffic & Competitive Analysis •Market Type •Cust Segment •Cust Relationships • Traffic Partners •Cust Relationships • Pricing • Channel • Revenue Model • Pivot or Proceed
  • 230. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready Sell, Sell, Pivot or Positioning to Sell Sell Proceed Pivot
  • 231. Customer Validation - Physical Get Ready Sell, Sell, S Pivot or Positioning to Sell ell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Develop Sales Materials •Hire “Sales Closer” •Sales Channel Action Plan • Refine the Sales Roadmap • Formalize advisory board
  • 232. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready Sell, Sell, Pivot or Positioning to Sell Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans and Tools • Build High Fidelity MVP • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Formalize advisory board
  • 233. Customer Validation - Physical Get Ready Sell, Sell, Pivot or Positioning to Sell Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans • Build High Fidelity MVP •Find Earlyvangelists • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell – Out of the Building • Formalize advisory board • Refine Sales Roadmap • Test Sell Channel Partners
  • 234. Customer Validation - Web Get Ready Sell, Sell, S Pivot or Positioning to Sell ell Proceed •Craft Positioning •Acquire/Activate Plans •Prepare Optimization Plans & Tools • Build High Fidelity MVP • Build Metrics Toolset • Out of the building Activation Test • Hire data analytics chief • Measure and Optimize Results • Formalize advisory board • Test Sell Traffic Partners
  • 235. Customer Validation - Physical/Web Get Ready Sell, Sell, Pivot or Positioning to Sell Sell Proceed •Craft Positioning • Acquire/Activate Plans • Prepare Optimization Plans • Company Positioning • Build High Fidelity MVP • Out of the building Activation Test • Measure and Optimize Results • Product Positioning • Build Metrics Toolset • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell Traffic Partners • Validate Positioning • Formalize advisory board
  • 236. Customer Validation - Physical/Web Get Ready Sell, Sell, S Pivot or Positioning to Sell ell Proceed •Craft Positioning • Acquire/Activate Plans • Prepare Optimization Plans • Assemble Data • Build High Fidelity MVP • Out of the building Activation Test • Validate Business Model • Build Metrics Toolset • Measure and Optimize Results • Hire data analytics chief • Test Sell Traffic Partners • Validate Financial Model • Formalize advisory board • Pivot or Proceed

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. 1. One person at a timeFocus groups are a group-think, distraction-filled mess. Avoid them and only talk to one person at a time. If desired, you can bring someone with you to take notes — some UX designers like this approach. Personally, I tend to do one-on-one interviews because I think people loosen up and thus open up a bit more.2. Know your goals and questions ahead of timeHave your assumptions and thus learning goals prioritized ahead of time. Decide who you want to talk to (age, gender, location, profession/industry, affluence, etc), and target interviewees accordingly. Prep your basic flow and list of questions. You might veer off the plan to follow your nose, which is great, but go in prepared.3. Separate behavior and feedback in discussionDecide up front if your focus is going to be on learning a user’s behavior and mindset, and/or getting direct feedback or usability insights on a product or mockup. Do not mix the two in the discussion flow or things will get distorted.Put “behavior and mindset” first in your discussion flow. During this part, don’t let the interviewee go too deep in terms of suggesting features (some people can’t help it), but keep them focused on if they have a problem, how they think about the problem space, and if and how they have tried to solve it in past. Getting people to discuss their actual actions, not just opinions, is very useful.4. Get psyched to hear things you don’t want to hearIf you don’t do this, you might find yourself selling or convincing, or even hearing what you want to hear. Remember, the goal in this early stage is learning and validation/invalidation, not a sale.Unless, of course, you have set a sale or LOI as a goal. You might want to shoot for a commitment from the interviewee as a way to measure true demand. If so, keep it entirely out of the behavior/mindset portion of the discussion.5. Disarm “politeness” trainingPeople are trained not to call your baby ugly. You need to make them feel safe to do this. My approach was to explain that the worst thing that could happen to me was building something people didn’t care about, so the best way they could help me was absolute, brutal honesty.6. Ask open ended questionsDo not ask too many yes/no questions. For example, minimize such questions as “do you like Groupon?” Instead ask “what kinds of deals do you look for, if any?” “What motivates you to hunt for deals?” “How do you discover deals?” “Do you get frustrated with the deal sites out there?”7. Listen, don’t talkTry to shut up as much as possible, and try to keep your questions short and unbiased (i.e. don’t embed the answer you want to hear into the question). Don’t rush to fill the “space” when the customer pauses, because they might be thinking or have more to say.Make sure you are learning, not selling! (at least not until that part of the conversation, if relevant)8. Encourage but don’t influenceIf you stay *too* quiet, some folks might start getting uncomfortable, thinking that they are boring you or you are judging them. You can keep things rolling with little motions of encouragement, such as nods, “I see”, “interesting”, etc. But do not say things that might steer or influence the interviewee.9. Follow your nose and drill downAnytime something tweaks your antenna, drill down with follow up questions. Don’t be afraid to ask for clarifications and the “why” behind the “what”. You can even try drilling into multiple layers of “why” (see “Five Whys”), as long as the interviewee doesn’t start getting annoyed.10. Parrot back or misrepresent to confirmFor important topics, try repeating back what the person said. You can occasionally get one of two interesting results through this. In the first, they correct you because you’ve misinterpreted what they said. In the second, by hearing their own thoughts, they’ll actually realize that their true opinion is slightly different, and they will give you a second, more sophisticated answer.Another approach is to purposefully misrepresent what they just said when you parrot it back, and then see if they correct you. But use this technique sparingly, if at all.11. Ask for introductionsAt the end of every interview, see if you can get leads to another 1 to 3 people to talk to.12. Write up your notes as quickly as possibleThe details behind a conversation fade fast, so if you haven’t recorded the session, write up your notes and color commentary as soon as you can. I brain-dump into a shared Google Doc so the rest of the team can see it. (Note: I typically have not recorded sessions for fear of making interviewees more self-conscious or careful, but other entrepreneurs have said to me that, while it takes some rapport-building at the start, pretty soon people forget about a recorder.)Afterwards: Look for patterns and apply judgementCustomer development interviews will not give you statistically significant data, but they will give you insights based on patterns. They can be very tricky to interpret, because what people say is not always what they do.You need to use your judgement to read between the lines, to read body language, to try to understand context and agendas, and to filter out biases based on the types of people in your pool of interviewees. But it is exactly the ability to use human judgement based on human connections that make interviews so much more useful than surveys.Ultimately, you are better off moving fast and making decisions from credible patterns than dithering about in analysis paralysis.