Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, semiconductors, china, applied materials

1. Technology, Innovation, and Great
Power Competition
INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296
Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah
Lecture #4: Semiconductors
12 October 2021

2. Agenda
• Logistics
• Part 1 (GPC) Recap
• Part 2 Preview (GPC Technologies and Domains)
• 4th Industrial Revolution
• Semiconductors
• Group Project
• Next Week

3. Logistics
• Group Project Office Hours
• Sign ups will be live after class today
• Reminder to please arrive with slides to show the following:
• Current problem statement [“what did you think”]
• 3 key takeaways from your research and interviews [“what did you learn”]
• Your next steps [“what will you do”]
• Slides are not being graded for style—we just care about content
• Great work with on the reflections!

4. Great Power Competition

5. The Fourth Industrial Revolution

6. History of Innovation: From Industry 1.0 to 4.0

7. The 4th Industrial Revolution

8. The Secret History of Silicon Valley
YouTube Link

9. A Changing Innovation Landscape

10. A Changing Innovation Landscape

11. Implications for U.S. Defense
• Innovation now comes from commercial sector - not
the government
• Reflected in R&D spending, but also more dual-use tech

12. • Is the system compatible with Industry 4.0?
The Defense Acquisition System

13. The Semiconductor Challenge

14. ● Lecturer in Finance, GSB
● Former Managing Partner, Bowman Capital
Management
● Expert on semiconductors and supply
chains
● Former Member, President's Intelligence
Advisory Board
● Former Captain, U.S. Army
● Member of Board of Trustees, AEI
John Hurley
Managing Partner and CIO,
Cavalry Asset Management

15. The Semiconductor Challenge

16. TSMC Case Study

17. Discussion Questions

18. 1) Put yourself in Mark Liu's shoes: Do you view China as more of a
competitor or customer - and why?
1) Now imagine you are the NSC Senior Director with responsibility for
technology strategy. What's the first thing the US Gov't should do
regarding Semiconductors?

19. Problem Scoping
• What problem do we want to solve?
• PRC access to U.S. tech?
• PRC embedding advanced tech into dual-use systems?
• How do we select / narrow a problem?
• Value added for identified stakeholders
• Access to info / experts
• Personal passion / interest

20. Solution Development
• What are potential solution ideas?
• Export controls?
• Stronger CFIUS regulations?
• How do you select a solution?
• Stakeholder feedback
• Deployment strategy

21. • Provide a 1-page memo to POTUS proposing solution
Implementation - Midterm Memo
Matt Pottinger NSC Memo

22. Implementation - Midterm Memo
• Make every word count
Policy Memo Writing Guide
Memo Structure

23. Reach out to teaching team with questions!
Midterm Memo - Key Details
• Due Monday, November 1 @ 23:59 PST
• No more than 2,000 words
• Prompt Guidance
• Select one technology (i.e. semiconductors)
• Describe how one U.S. competitor is using it to counter U.S.
interests
• Propose how the U.S. should respond

24. Group Projects

25. Group Project
• Problem Statement Review and Feedback
• 5 minutes per group
• Blunt and direct feedback
• “Socratic method with a stick” - Steve Blank
• We give feedback this way because it will help you move faster.
Indirect feedback takes too long for the course

26. The gap between U.S. and Chinese military innovation is
rapidly closing and poses a threat to U.S. military
dominance in the Indo-Pacific Region. In order to
maintain our capability gap, the U.S. needs to reevaluate
and improve its public venture capital and funding
strategies regarding private companies that have potential
for dual-use technologies, which can play a vital role in
catalyzing U.S. military innovation.
Team 1: Team Army Venture Capital Initiative

27. Team 2: Team Conflicted Capital
Chinese investment in US start-ups poses a threat to US
military capabilities across critical technologies. The open
nature and lack of transparency in venture capital
threaten the US government’s ability to track these
threats. Additionally, companies may desire to function as
national security capability providers but find themselves
unable to partner with government agencies due to a
compromised investment history.

28. Team 3: Project Aurora
How can the United States employ its cyber capabilities to
provide the populace of Hong Kong with unrestricted
Internet access? How can it use this access to bolster the
resiliency of Hong Kong’s civil society in the face of CCP
crackdowns, in order to pressure the PRC regime, spread
American liberal values, and uphold United States
freedom of action in the information domain?

29. Team 4: Team ShortCircuit
How should the United States improve its ability to design
and produce semiconductors and develop and retain
relevant talent within the U.S. territory and other directly
securable regions to protect the viability of American
industries and military in case of disruptions in the global
supply chain of semiconductors?

30. Team 5: Team Drones
Group 5 analyzes the PRC’s joint service (联合作战样式)
operational concept for the future of drone swarm support
to amphibious warfare (两栖登陆作战), as well as
current thinking in the US and Taiwan about the future of
drone swarm defense in order to protect against
asymmetric People’s Republic of China (PRC) swarm
technologies in a potential Taiwan Strait crisis.

31. Team 6: Apollo
The US Space Force needs innovative mechanisms to
incorporate emerging technologies to successfully lead in
space and defend American interests. In order to deter
adversaries in space, the USSF must leverage commercial
innovation and establish a trained, experienced acquisition
workforce that can effectively balance commercial and
government-only capabilities that will deliver acquisition
and innovation impact that the Space Force requires. Further
aligning commercial and military interests and operations in
space will best protect American interests in Space.

32. Team 7: Catena
China’s recent cryptocurrency ban has presented the
United States with an unparalleled opportunity to
leverage blockchain and digital asset technology toward
countering foreign cyber attacks on public institutions
and achieving a long-term strategic advantage. We plan to
identify opportunities for our government to promote and
capitalize on technological opportunities in this space
through carefully constructed regulation.

33. Questions?
We are here to support!

34. Next Week
• Class 5 Topic: Artificial
Intelligence / Machine Learning
• Updated readings will be
on Canvas shortly
• TA Team will post Week 5
Reading Reflection prompt
once readings are updated
• Updated problem statements
and interview trackers due
Mondays @ 11:59 PM PST

35. Technology, Innovation, and Great
Power Competition
INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296
Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah
Lecture #4: Semiconductors
12 October 2021