business model, business model canvas, mission model, mission model canvas, customer development, hacking for defense, H4D, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, startup, steve blank, pete newell, bmnt, entrepreneurship, I-Corps

1. 1
Team PredictiMx
“Marine Aviation maintenance
control chiefs need tools to
aggregate disparate data
sources and manpower
capacity in order to
maximize readiness levels” 135
(300+ contacted)
Interviews
“Marine Aviation squadrons
do not analyze manpower
trends in real-time and lose
maintenance man hours to
poor human capital
management.”
Original problem statement: Updated problem statement:
4
Site Visits

2. 2
MS Management Science
& Engineering
Steph
Flamen
MA Public Policy
Diba
Massihpour
Chris
Satterthwaite
MS Management Science
& Engineering
Andrew
Zhao
The PredictiMx Team
Project Sponsor
Lt. Col Rich
Lawson
Entrepreneurial Mentor
Rafi
Holtzman
Military Liaison
Lt. Col Todd
Mahar
Teaching Assistant
Nate
Simon
Supported by
MBA

3. 3
Our journey: The beginning
Trip to Yuma /
Miramar
Week
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4. 4
During our visit, we identified
tool control as a real problem
Maintainers spent ~20% of their time checking
and re-checking tools manually.

5. 5
We showed our first MVP to real users
“Killer” feedbackTool Control MVP (#1)

6. 6
“We already have a pilot
program for this in place”
Engineer @ NAVAIR
“Killer” feedback
We showed our first MVP to real users
Tool Control MVP (#1)

7. 7
“We already have a pilot
program for this in place”
Engineer @ NAVAIR
“This will not move the needle
on readiness”
Everyone
“Killer” feedback
We showed our first MVP to real users
Tool Control MVP (#1)

8. 8
“We already have a pilot
program for this in place”
Engineer @ NAVAIR
“This will not move the needle
on readiness”
Everyone
“What the hell is this?!?!”
“Killer” feedback
Project sponsor (paraphrased, but only slightly)
We showed our first MVP to real users
Tool Control MVP (#1)

9. 9
Our journey: Pivot - our focus was too narrow
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
Week
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10. 10
Our journey: Observe commercial best practices
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
Visit to SFO
(Pegasus /
JetBlue)
Week
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11. 11
At SFO, we learned scheduling
maintenance is challenging
This was
consistent with
our observations
with the Marines
Marines aircraft tracker &
work prioritization board
Daily Marine Mx
scheduling meeting
Observations from Yuma & Miramar visits

12. 12
Our journey: We’re on to something!
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
Scheduling is an
opportunity
Week
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13. 13
Finally, an MVP to address a real Marine
needScheduling MVP (#2)
● Dynamic real-time
scheduling
● Forecasts based on
historical variations
● Alerts and proposed
actions when disruptions
occur

14. 14
Finally, an MVP to address a real Marine
needScheduling MVP (#2) Feedback
A work replanning tool
cannot address the art
component of
maintenance scheduling.
“Scheduling is 60% art ...
Murphy’s law get a vote
in how things go for us.”
Maintenance Scheduling Officer, VMX-1
Maintenance Material Control Officer
(paraphrased)

15. 15
Key Learning: Scheduling challenges are a symptom
Parts
People Training
Scheduling challenges are a
byproduct of constraints; in
order to schedule effectively
we need to understand
these constraints
Scheduling

16. 16
Our journey: Pivot - we were tackling a symptom
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Week
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17. 17
Our journey: Another SFO visit, this time to United
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
United
SFO visit
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Week
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18. United VP, Maintenance
“We don’t have
unscheduled maintenance”
United
@ SFO

19. 19
Key learning: Commercial utilization of maintenance
data is more advanced than the Marines
“We looked at all our historical
data with Palantir to be more
predictive around
unscheduled work”
United VP, Maintenance

20. 20
Key learning: Commercial utilization of maintenance
data is more advanced than the Marines
“We looked at all our historical
data with Palantir to be more
predictive around
unscheduled work”
United VP, Maintenance
● Monthly retroactive maintenance
reports
● Limited real-time data analysis
“Trend analysis is not being done
where the rubber meets the road”
Operations Research Systems Analyst

21. 21
Our journey: Analysis of maintenance data as opportunity
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
United
SFO visit
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Data
analysis!
Week
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Let’s bring
commercial best
practices to the
Marines

22. 22
We finally got some positive feedback from users!
Trend Analysis MVP (#3)
Trend analysis of historical
maintenance data for key
drivers of complexity:
● People
● Parts
● Training

23. 23
We finally got some positive feedback from users!
Trend Analysis MVP (#3) Feedback
“Trend analysis is critical,
we need to order parts
in advance”
3rd Marine Air Wing,
Aviation Logistics Detachment
“This is great, that’s
what we need”
Marine Aviation Logistics Squadron

24. 24
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:

25. 25
“Astro, we think we’ve got a great idea. Which of the
maintenance people should we talk to for a contract?”
Team PredictiMx
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:

26. 26
“Astro, we think we’ve got a great idea. Which of the
maintenance people should we talk to for a contract?”
Team PredictiMx
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:
“You need to go talk to the guys at SPAWAR”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson

27. 27
“Astro, we think we’ve got a great idea. Which of the
maintenance people should we talk to for a contract?”
Team PredictiMx
“Is that like a super special group of maintainers?”
Team PredictiMx
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:
“You need to go talk to the guys at SPAWAR”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson

28. 28
“Astro, we think we’ve got a great idea. Which of the
maintenance people should we talk to for a contract?”
Team PredictiMx
“You need to go talk to the guys at SPAWAR”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson
“Is that like a super special group of maintainers?”
Team PredictiMx
“Not even close, you guys have a lot to learn ...”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:

29. 29
“Astro, we think we’ve got a great idea. Which of the
maintenance people should we talk to for a contract?”
Team PredictiMx
“Oh no, you need to go talk to the guys at SPAWAR”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson
“Is that like a super special group of maintainers?”
Team PredictiMx
“Not even close, you guys have a lot to learn ...”
Lt. Col Rich “Astro” Lawson
Transcript of conversation with our sponsor:

30. 30
BUY-IN & SUPPORT
-Contracting from
SPAWAR to implement
identified needs (or
connect us to contractors)
-Marine Air Groups to
validate user needs we
identified
Updated our MMC to reflect new buy-in & support
SPAWAR = Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command
Changes to Mission Model Canvas in red

31. 31
Our journey: Now let’s go talk to the buyers
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
United
SFO visit
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
San Diego
SPAWAR
visit
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Data
analysis!
Week
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SPAWAR = Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command

32. 32
Visit to Contracting
Program Office

33. 33
“The next generation Naval Aviation maintenance
system will absolutely incorporate trend analysis ...”

34. 34
“But we already awarded contracts,
go talk to the contractors”

35. 35
Our journey: Validate MVP with Prime contractors
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
United
SFO visit
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
San Diego
SPAWAR
visit
Discussions w/
Prime
contractors
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Data
analysis!
Week
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36. 36
Final Minimum Viable Product
Human Capital
Management MVP (#4)
Optimize human capital
resource utilization:
● Automatically adjust training
requirements and
purchasing privileges
● Dynamic resource allocation

37. 37
Final Minimum Viable Product
Human Capital
Management MVP (#4)
Optimize human capital resource utilization:
● Automatically adjust training requirements
and purchasing privileges
● Dynamic resource allocation
Major General, Aviation Command and Control
WBB Consulting, Marine Corps Projects
Marine Corps Aviation
“would be silly to say no
to something like this.”
“I would be willing to
champion your solution
before the Deputy
Commandant for Aviation.” LtCol, Acquisitions Officer
Secretary of Defense Executive Fellow
“This is a start towards
enterprise-wide data analytics
that the Marine Corps needs.”
National Security Technology Accelerator
(paraphrased)
Let’s incorporate your
learnings into the NAMS
contract.
Marine Aviation Logistics, Executive Officer
“It would be helpful to see
trend analysis as we only
do reporting on a monthly
basis.” Master Gunnery Sergeant
Marine Air Wing Mx Administration Specialist
“Showing manpower
usage on a more regular
basis would be helpful.”

38. 38
Our journey: Huge learnings, and ...
Trip to Yuma
/ Miramar
Tool control
is a real
problem
Tool control
is not viable
United
SFO visit
Visit to SFO
(JetBlue /
Pegasus)
San Diego
SPAWAR
visit
Discussions w/
Prime contractors
Scheduling is
an opportunity
Scheduling is
a symptom
Data
analysis!
Week
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39. 39
… a great experience!!!

40. 40
Next (and final) steps for the team
Wrap-up
discussions with
contractors
● Lockheed Martin
● Contracting
authorities:
○ TReX
○ NSTXL / DIU

41. 41
Next (and final) steps for the team
Prep handover
materials
Document learnings for:
● VMX-1 (Astro)
● SPAWAR
● Dep. Commandant
for Aviation
● Naval Postgrad
School
Wrap-up
discussions with
contractors

42. 42
Next (and final) steps for the team
Start new
jobs / internships
● Steph: Alpine Investors
● Diba: Morgan Stanley
● Chris: Verdad Capital
● Andrew: US Navy
Wrap-up
discussions with
contractors
Prep handover
materials

43. 43
Next (and final) steps for the team
Margaritas!!
… much needed
Wrap-up
discussions with
contractors
Prep handover
materials
Start new jobs /
internships

44. 44
THANK YOU!

45. 45
Appendix

46. 46
Procurement and deployment diagram flow
Collect and design
requirements from
users and specify
them to SPAWAR
HQMC
Aviation
Identify flaws or
opportunities for
improvement in
existing system and
report them
Marines
Take requirements,
design RFI/RFP and
solicit and review
bids from
contractors
SPAWAR /
PMW-150
Vehicles to manage
contracting process.
Contractors build,
refine, and test
prototypes
OTAs /
Contractors
Tests demo of
contractor
prototypes and
gives feedback and
input for fleet
Evaluation
squadron
Phased deployment
of system with
iterative feedback
and improvements
Fleetwide
deployment
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
Timeline
Years Months / Years
Months Months / Years
Years