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Silicon Valley:  Past, Present, and Future Steve Blank www.steveblank.com Twitter: sgblank
The Popular View of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Innovation Networks 1930 1940 1950 1920 Steve Jobs   Moore/Noyce   Marc Andreessen   Hewlett & Packard   Fruit Orchards Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet Fruit Orchards Fruit Orchards
The Real Story  of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Innovation Networks 1930 1940 1950 1920 Microwaves / Defense Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet Test Equipment Vacuum Tubes
Eight Short Stories
Story 1: WWII  The First Electronic War
Dec 7 th  1941: America Enters WWII ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Strategic Bombing of Germany   March 1943:   The Combined Bomber Offensive ,[object Object]
Strategic Bombing of Germany  The Combined Bomber Offensive ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
British/American Air War in Western Europe 28,000 Active Combat Planes 40,000  Allied  planes lost  or damaged beyond repair:  18,000 American and 22,000 British ( 46 000 planes lost by the USSR in the East) 79,265  Americans and  79,281  British killed,  wounded or captured
 
The German Air Defense System The Kammhuber Line ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wasserman Early Warning Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Jagdschloss Early Warning Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Freya   Early Warning Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Himmelbett  Air Battle Traffic Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Flak - Radar Controlled  Anti Aircraft Guns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],105 mm flak Flak: an abbreviation for Fliegerabwehrkanonen, german for anti-aircraft guns
Wurzburg Anti-Aircraft Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Operation Biting  -  Raid on Bruneval ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What’s this?
Giant Wurzburg Ground Control Intercept Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
German Night-Fighters  On-board Radar ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Math Challenge For every 100 bombers on a mission  4 - 20% would not return Crews had to fly 25 mission to go home
Story 2: The Electronic Shield - Electronic Warfare
Harvard Radio Research Lab  (RRL)  Signals Intelligence and Electronic Warfare ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Window/Chaff   Jam Wurzburg AAA & GCI Radar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Electronically Blind German Radar   Jam the Radars with Noise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],MANDREL Jammer DINA Jammer
Who Ran this Secret Lab and became the Father of Electronic Warfare? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fredrick Terman   “the Father of Silicon Valley” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Story 3: Stanford And The Cold War
WWII Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Terman’s Postwar   Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problem: Jammers Need:  More Power and Frequency Agility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solution: Electronically Tunable Microwave Power Tubes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problem: ELINT Receivers Need  Higher Bandwidth & Frequency Agility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solution: Electronically Tunable Wideband Amplifiers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stanford Spinouts Build  Microwave Valley ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Cold War and the  Black  Valley ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stanford Joins the “Black” World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problem: Understand the Soviet Radar Order of Battle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problem: Find All the “Tall Kings” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Radio Dishes Get Funded ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stanford Spinouts Build Military Systems  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Terman Changes the Startup/University Rules Silicon Valley as We Know it Starts Here ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Terman and the Cold War  Silicon Valley’s 1st Engine of Entrepreneurship Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information Entrepreneurs Military Finance Crisis Profit Motivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities
Story 4:  1956  - The Year It All Changes Lockheed
Lockheed Comes to Town ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lockheed – Corona and Agena  Spy Satellites and Space Bus  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The End of Classified Work at Stanford April 9, 1969  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Story 5:  1956   Why It’s  Silicon  Valley   Shockley
Meanwhile, on the Other Side of Town… The Head of Radar Bombing training for Air Force  starts a Company
William Shockley   “ The Other Father of Silicon Valley” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Semiconductor Genealogy: 1955 - 1976
Shockley’s Legacy ,[object Object]
William Shockley   “ Great Researcher, Awesome Talent Spotter, Horrible Manager” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Story 6:  Startups Versus Large Companies or  Why Accountants Don’t Run Startups
Inventor of the  Modern Corporation Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
Inventor  of the Modern Corporation Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Alfred P.  Sloan
Alfred P.  Sloan Scalable Startup Large Company Transition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Founder  of General Motors Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
Founder  of General Motors Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Billy  Durant
Billy  Durant Scalable Startup Large Company Transition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*  GM Net sales in 1921 $304.5M = $3.6 Billion today
Durant  Versus  Sloan Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
Durant Versus  Sloan ,[object Object]
Durant  Versus Sloan ,[object Object]
Durant Versus Sloan Accountant
Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Entrepreneur
Story 7:  Why We All Don’t Work for the Government The Rise of  Ad venture   Capital
The Valley Attracts Financial Attention The 1st West Coast IPO’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Rise of Risk Capital Family Money  1940’s - 1960’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Rise of Risk Capital   East Coast VC Experiments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Rise of Risk Capital   “The Group” 1950’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reid Dennis Remembers ,[object Object],[object Object]
Soviet Union Launches  Sputnik and  the  U.S. Venture Capital  Industry ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Rise of Risk Capital   SBIC Act of  1958 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Defense R&D Budget   Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D
Defense R&D Budget California   Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D
Defense R&D Budget Silicon Valley   Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D
Defense R&D Budget Versus Venture Capital   Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D Silicon Valley Venture
Defense R&D Budget Versus Venture Capital   Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D Silicon Valley Venture
The Rise of Risk Capital   The Limited Partnership ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Rise of Risk Capital   1978/1979  - A  Watershed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Venture Capital  Silicon Valley’s 2nd Engine of Entrepreneurship Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information Crisis Profit Motivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities Entrepreneurs Venture Finance
Story 8: Boom and Bust The  Lost  Decade
Over 2000 IPO’s - The  1990’s
The Lost Decade The Last 10 Years –  The Lost Decade
Innovation in Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where Next? 下一步在哪裡?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Read the Blog www.steveblank.com Read the Backstory http://bit.ly/SecretStories

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Silicon valley past, present, future always on july28 2010

  • 1. Silicon Valley: Past, Present, and Future Steve Blank www.steveblank.com Twitter: sgblank
  • 2. The Popular View of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Innovation Networks 1930 1940 1950 1920 Steve Jobs Moore/Noyce Marc Andreessen Hewlett & Packard Fruit Orchards Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet Fruit Orchards Fruit Orchards
  • 3. The Real Story of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Innovation Networks 1930 1940 1950 1920 Microwaves / Defense Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet Test Equipment Vacuum Tubes
  • 5. Story 1: WWII The First Electronic War
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. British/American Air War in Western Europe 28,000 Active Combat Planes 40,000 Allied planes lost or damaged beyond repair: 18,000 American and 22,000 British ( 46 000 planes lost by the USSR in the East) 79,265 Americans and 79,281 British killed, wounded or captured
  • 10.  
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.  
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.  
  • 23.  
  • 24. Math Challenge For every 100 bombers on a mission 4 - 20% would not return Crews had to fly 25 mission to go home
  • 25. Story 2: The Electronic Shield - Electronic Warfare
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. Story 3: Stanford And The Cold War
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Terman and the Cold War Silicon Valley’s 1st Engine of Entrepreneurship Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information Entrepreneurs Military Finance Crisis Profit Motivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities
  • 47. Story 4: 1956 - The Year It All Changes Lockheed
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Story 5: 1956 Why It’s Silicon Valley Shockley
  • 52. Meanwhile, on the Other Side of Town… The Head of Radar Bombing training for Air Force starts a Company
  • 53.
  • 54.  
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58. Story 6: Startups Versus Large Companies or Why Accountants Don’t Run Startups
  • 59. Inventor of the Modern Corporation Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
  • 60. Inventor of the Modern Corporation Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Alfred P. Sloan
  • 61.
  • 62. Founder of General Motors Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
  • 63. Founder of General Motors Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Billy Durant
  • 64.
  • 65. Durant Versus Sloan Scalable Startup Large Company Transition
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68. Durant Versus Sloan Accountant
  • 69. Scalable Startup Large Company Transition Entrepreneur
  • 70. Story 7: Why We All Don’t Work for the Government The Rise of Ad venture Capital
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78. Defense R&D Budget Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D
  • 79. Defense R&D Budget California Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D
  • 80. Defense R&D Budget Silicon Valley Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D
  • 81. Defense R&D Budget Versus Venture Capital Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D Silicon Valley Venture
  • 82. Defense R&D Budget Versus Venture Capital Sources: United States National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, 2006, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/append/c4/at04-03.pdf; United States Governemnt, Budgetfor FY 05, Historical Tables, 2004, Table 9.7, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/-usbudget/fy05/hist.html $ Billions Defense R&D California Defense R&D Silicon Valley Defense R&D Silicon Valley Venture
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85. Venture Capital Silicon Valley’s 2nd Engine of Entrepreneurship Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information Crisis Profit Motivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities Entrepreneurs Venture Finance
  • 86. Story 8: Boom and Bust The Lost Decade
  • 87. Over 2000 IPO’s - The 1990’s
  • 88. The Lost Decade The Last 10 Years – The Lost Decade
  • 89.
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 93. Read the Blog www.steveblank.com Read the Backstory http://bit.ly/SecretStories

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Silicon Valley has gone through several waves of innovation. Each wave of technology helped shape the next one. All are well understood except for one - Silicon Valley’s role in the defense industry. I’m going to tell you that story as I understand it.
  2. Silicon Valley has gone through several waves of innovation. Each wave of technology helped shape the next one. All are well understood except for one - Silicon Valley’s role in the defense industry. I’m going to tell you that story as I understand it.
  3. So five short stories -
  4. The surprise for me is that every war movie you ever saw about WWII was simply wrong. The directors and screenwriters did not know- even today - what I’m about to tell you - WWII was the first electronic war.
  5. Just a bit of history. By 1940 Germany had overrun Europe. Britain stood alone until the U.S. entered the war Dec 7th 1941. Beginning in 1942 the goal of the US and Britain was to destroy the German industrial infrastructure by bombing Germany and occupied Europe from bases in Britain and to destroy: Transportation, petroleum, aircraft manufacturer, and euphemistically to “dehouse” the population.
  6. Just a bit of history. By 1940 Germany had overrun Europe. Britain stood alone until the U.S. entered the war Dec 7th 1941. Beginning in 1942 the goal of the US and Britain was to destroy the German industrial infrastructure by bombing Germany and occupied Europe from bases in Britain and to destroy: Transportation, petroleum, aircraft manufacturer, and euphemistically to “dehouse” the population.
  7. 46 000 planes lost by the USSR in this war. German planes lost in war with USA/Britain: 23 895 German planes lost in war with USSR: 52 850 ꀾ
  8. Allied Air War in Western Europe Strategic Bombing Campaign 28,000 Active Allied Combat Planes 40,000 planes lost/destroyed: 18,000 American and 22,000 British 80,000 Americans and 80,000 British killed
  9. By 1941 the Germans had built a formidable electronic screen.
  10. Here’s a Freya on the right and a Freya with a Wurzburg on the left
  11. resembled a movie theater with bleacher seats map of the battle area
  12. About 40% of the bomber losses were from flak.
  13. About 60% of the bomber losses were from fighters.
  14. These antennas are the first airborne radars on fighters. By the end of the war all the German night fighters had them.
  15. ‪ The wizards of Langley: inside the CIA's Directorate of Science and Technology ‬ By Jeffrey T. Richelson page 87-89
  16. 1961 - Arthur Rock (former investment banker at Hayden, Stone & Co. (arranged financing for Fairchild Semiconductor in 1957), Thomas J. Davis, Jr. (former VP of Kern County Land Company responsible for investing land trust's royalties) formed Davis & Rock in San Francisco, CA as partnership (not SBIC or publicly-held); raised $5 million (capital gains split 80/20 between limited partners/general partners); 1968 - partnership dissolved (generated $90 million in capital gains, 54% compound growth rate; Teledyne, Scientific Data Systems biggest hits); first venture capitalist on the West Coast; July 16, 1968 - launched Intel with Bob Noyce (group vice president of Fairchild Semiconductor), Gordon Moore (head of Fairchild Semiconductor's R&D division).
  17. 1961 - Arthur Rock (former investment banker at Hayden, Stone & Co. (arranged financing for Fairchild Semiconductor in 1957), Thomas J. Davis, Jr. (former VP of Kern County Land Company responsible for investing land trust's royalties) formed Davis & Rock in San Francisco, CA as partnership (not SBIC or publicly-held); raised $5 million (capital gains split 80/20 between limited partners/general partners); 1968 - partnership dissolved (generated $90 million in capital gains, 54% compound growth rate; Teledyne, Scientific Data Systems biggest hits); first venture capitalist on the West Coast; July 16, 1968 - launched Intel with Bob Noyce (group vice president of Fairchild Semiconductor), Gordon Moore (head of Fairchild Semiconductor's R&D division).