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New Rules for the New Bubble,[object Object],Steve Blank,[object Object],Stanford - School of Engineering,[object Object],U.C. Berkeley - Haas School Of  Business,[object Object],www.steveblank.com,[object Object],Twitter: sgblank,[object Object]
I Write a Blog  ,[object Object],www.steveblank.com,[object Object]
I Drew This,[object Object],CustomerDiscovery,[object Object],Company ,[object Object], Building,[object Object],CustomerValidation,[object Object],Customer Creation,[object Object],Pivot,[object Object]
I Called It:Customer Development,[object Object],CustomerDiscovery,[object Object],Company ,[object Object], Building,[object Object],CustomerValidation,[object Object],Customer Creation,[object Object],Pivot,[object Object]
I Wrote This,[object Object]
A Few People Read It,[object Object]
This Talk is Based On,[object Object],Business Model Generation,[object Object],Four Steps to the Epiphany,[object Object],Lean Startup,[object Object]
Premise,[object Object],Beginning of another tech bubble,[object Object],Rules are different in a bubble,[object Object],What are they?,[object Object],How do they differ from what you did before?,[object Object]
A Few Short Stories,[object Object]
How Did We Get Here?,[object Object]
Paths to Startup Liquidity,[object Object],1970 – 1995 	build a business (revenue),[object Object],1995 – 2000	flip the business (concept IPO),[object Object],2001 – 2010	build a business (M&A),[object Object],2011 – 2014	flip a built business (M&A / IPO),[object Object]
1970 – 1995Building a BusinessStartups Are Small Versions of A Large Company,[object Object]
1970 - 1995 Building a Startup the Hard Way,[object Object],$Millions’sto start(Proprietary hdwr/sftwr),[object Object],Long product dev cycle           (Waterfall),[object Object],Thousands customers            (Businesses),[object Object],Liquidity = IPO                        (5 qtrsrevenue/profit),[object Object],No repeatable methodology(Smaller big company),[object Object]
1970 - 1995Making Money the Hard Way,[object Object],Goal was long term company success,[object Object],VC’s/Founders  were company builders,[object Object],Exits were IPO’s,[object Object],Founders and VC success ≤ $10 million,[object Object]
1970 – 1995  Playbook,[object Object]
Product Introduction Model,[object Object],Concept/Seed Round,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object]
Product Introduction Model,[object Object],The Leading Cause of Startup Death,[object Object],Concept/Seed Round,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object]
Product Introduction Model:Two Implicit Assumptions,[object Object],Customer Problem: known,[object Object],Concept/Seed Round,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object],	Product Features: known,[object Object]
Tradition – Hire Marketing,[object Object],Concept/Seed Round,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object],- Create Demand,[object Object],- Launch Event,[object Object],- “Branding”,[object Object],- Hire PR Agency,[object Object],- Early Buzz,[object Object],[object Object],  Materials,[object Object],- Create Positioning,[object Object],Marketing,[object Object]
Tradition – Hire Sales,[object Object],Concept/Seed Round,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object],- Create Demand,[object Object],- Launch Event,[object Object],- “Branding”,[object Object],- Hire PR Agency,[object Object],- Early Buzz,[object Object],[object Object],  Materials,[object Object],- Create Positioning,[object Object],Marketing,[object Object],[object Object]
 Hire Sales VP
 Hire 1st  Sales StaffSales,[object Object]
Tradition – Hire Bus Development,[object Object],Concept,[object Object],Product Dev.,[object Object],Alpha/Beta Test,[object Object],Launch/,[object Object],1st Ship,[object Object],- Create Demand,[object Object],- Launch Event,[object Object],- “Branding”,[object Object],- Hire PR Agency,[object Object],- Early Buzz,[object Object],[object Object],  Materials,[object Object],- Create Positioning,[object Object],Marketing,[object Object],[object Object]
 Hire Sales VP
 Pick distribution   ChannelSales,[object Object],Business ,[object Object],Development,[object Object],[object Object]
 Do deals for FCS,[object Object]
 Hire Sales VP
 Pick distribution   ChannelSales,[object Object],Business ,[object Object],Development,[object Object],[object Object]
 Do deals for FCSEngineering,[object Object],[object Object]
 Waterfall
 Q/A
Tech Pubs,[object Object]
1995 – 2000Flipping A BusinessThe Dot.comBubble ,[object Object]
1995 - 2000The Dot-com Bubble,[object Object],10’s $millions to start(get big fast, create a brand),[object Object],Long product dev cycle(ship beta, 1st mover adv),[object Object],Millions customers(1st consumer internet wave),[object Object],Liquidity – IPO(Little/no revenue, no profits),[object Object],Repeatable methodology   (brand, hype, flip or IPO),[object Object]
1995 - 2000The Dot-com Bubble – Making Money,[object Object],Goal = short term exit,[object Object],VC’s engineering financial transactions,[object Object],Founders hyped their company,[object Object],“Musical Chairs” – last one standing looked dumb,[object Object],Everyone else got absurdly rich,[object Object]
1995 – 2000 Playbook,[object Object],Netscape,[object Object]
2001 – 2010Why Startups Are Not Small Versions of A Large Company,[object Object]
2001 - 2010The Lean Startup,[object Object],≤ $½ million to start(open source, commodity hdwr),[object Object],Short product dev cycle(Agile Development),[object Object],100’s millions Customers(Social networks, consumer),[object Object],Liquidity -M&A(revenue & network of users),[object Object],Repeatable methodology   (Agile + Cust Dev),[object Object]
Scalable,[object Object],Startup,[object Object],Large Company,[object Object],[object Object]
 i.e. Product/Market fit- Repeatable sales model,[object Object],- Managers hired,[object Object],What’s A Startup?,[object Object],Search ,[object Object],Execute,[object Object],A Startup is a temporary organization used to search for a repeatable and scalable business model ,[object Object]
What VC’s Don’t Tell You:The Transition – Founders Leave,[object Object],Scalable,[object Object],Startup,[object Object],Transition,[object Object],Large Company,[object Object],Build,[object Object],[object Object]
 Professional Mgmt
 Process
 Beginning of scale,[object Object]
Startups Search, Companies Execute,[object Object],The Execution of the Business Model,[object Object],The Search for the Business Model,[object Object],Scalable,[object Object],Startup,[object Object],Transition,[object Object],Large Company,[object Object],- Cash-flow breakeven,[object Object],- Profitable,[object Object],- Rapid scale,[object Object],- New Senior Mgmt,[object Object],~ 150 people,[object Object],[object Object]
 Product/Market fit- Repeatable sales model,[object Object],- Managers hired,[object Object]
Metrics Versus Accounting,[object Object],The Execution of the Business Model,[object Object],Scalable,[object Object],Startup,[object Object],Transition,[object Object],Large,[object Object],Company,[object Object],Traditional Accounting,[object Object],[object Object]
 Cash Flow Statement
 Income Statement,[object Object]
 Viral coefficient
 Customer Lifetime Value
 Average Selling Price/Order Size
 Monthly burn rate
 etc.  Traditional Accounting,[object Object],[object Object]
 Cash Flow Statement
 Income Statement,[object Object]
 Scalable
 Price List/Data Sheets
 Revenue Plan,[object Object]
 Pricing/Feature unstable
 Not yet repeatable
“One-off’s”Sales,[object Object],[object Object]
 Scalable
 Price List/Data Sheets
 Revenue Plan,[object Object]
 Waterfall Development
 QA
 Tech Pubs,[object Object]
 Waterfall Development
 QA
 Tech PubsAgile Development,[object Object],[object Object]
 Continuous Learning
 Self Organizing Teams
 Minimum Feature Set
 Pivots,[object Object]
 features
 customers/markets
 business model,[object Object]
 describes “unknowns”
customer needs
 feature set
 business model
 found by iteration
Plan describes “knowns”
 Known features for line extensions
 Known customers/markets
 Known business model,[object Object]
2001 - 2010 Playbook,[object Object],Four Steps to the Epiphany,[object Object],Many Agile Texts,[object Object]
But We Were Still Using This,[object Object]
No Business Plan survives first contact with customers,[object Object]
So Search for a Business Model,[object Object]
The Business Model:,[object Object],Any company can be described in 9 building blocks,[object Object]
CUSTOMER SEGMENTS,[object Object],which customers and users are you serving? ,[object Object],which jobs do they really want to get done?,[object Object]
VALUE PROPOSITIONS,[object Object],what are you offering them? what is that ,[object Object],getting done for them? do they care?,[object Object]
CHANNELS,[object Object],how does each customer segment want to be reached? through which interaction points?,[object Object]
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS,[object Object],what relationships are you establishing with each segment? personal? automated? acquisitive? retentive?,[object Object]
REVENUE STREAMS,[object Object],what are customers really willing to pay for? how? ,[object Object],are you generating transactional or recurring revenues?,[object Object]
KEY RESOURCES,[object Object],which resources underpin your business model? which assets are essential?,[object Object]
KEY ACTIVITIES,[object Object],which activities do you need to perform well in your business model? what is crucial?,[object Object],54,[object Object]
KEY PARTNERS,[object Object],which partners and suppliers leverage your model? ,[object Object],who do you need to rely on?,[object Object]
COST STRUCTURE,[object Object],what is the resulting cost structure? ,[object Object],which key elements drive your costs?,[object Object]
value proposition,[object Object],customer relationships,[object Object],key activities,[object Object],customer segments,[object Object],key partners,[object Object],cost structure,[object Object],revenue streams,[object Object],key ,[object Object],resources,[object Object],channels,[object Object],57,[object Object],images by JAM,[object Object]
How Do Startups Search For A Business Model?,[object Object],[object Object]
The Implementation is Agile Development
The Sum is the Lean Startup,[object Object]
Customer Development,[object Object],The founders,[object Object],^,[object Object],Get Out of the Building,[object Object]
Customer DevelopmentThe Search For the Business Model,[object Object],Company,[object Object],Building,[object Object],CustomerDiscovery,[object Object],CustomerValidation,[object Object],Customer Creation,[object Object],Pivot,[object Object]
Customer Discovery,[object Object],CustomerDiscovery,[object Object],CustomerValidation,[object Object],Company,[object Object],Building,[object Object],CustomerCreation,[object Object],Stop selling, start listening,[object Object],Test your hypotheses,[object Object],Continuous Discovery,[object Object],Done by founders,[object Object]
Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Market Type
 CompetitionTurning Hypotheses to Facts,[object Object]
Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Customer
 User
 Payer,[object Object],[object Object]
 Customer
 User
 PayerTest Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Market Type
 CompetitiveTest Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 (Customer)
 (Problem)Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Validate Business Model,[object Object]
 Customer
 User
 PayerAgile Development,[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Market Type
 CompetitiveTest Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 (Customer)
 (Problem)Customer Development Team,[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object],Test Hypotheses:,[object Object],[object Object]
 Validate Business Model,[object Object]
MVP + Customer are the first two you need to nail
 MVP is just 1 of the 9 parts of your model,[object Object]
Iteration without crisis
Fast, agile and opportunistic,[object Object]
Pivot ExampleOn-line Social Buying Platform,[object Object],Talked to 250 Customers in 8 weeks,[object Object]
OURCRAVE is an online social shopping platform where customers can make their own deals on products or services of their choosing with sellers who can offer them in bulk at a discounted price.,[object Object]
Business Canvas #1,[object Object],Seller: - Access to large online customer pool,[object Object],- Bulk sales with reduced commission,[object Object],Buyer: - Better discounts,[object Object],- Maintainingonline buyer/seller communities and credibilityof transactions- Promotionof website and brand ,[object Object],- Powerful sellers,[object Object],- Server providers,[object Object],- Automated services- Communities of buyers and sellers- Co-creation of value through customer feedback ,[object Object],Multi-sided platformSeller:,[object Object],Pro-sellers in Amazon and eBay who sell electronicsBuyer:,[object Object],Online shoppers,[object Object],[object Object],-Online social networks,[object Object],- Physical resources (IT infrastructure)- Existing social networks -Buyer and seller communities,- Brand awareness,[object Object],Seller side:- transaction fees ,[object Object],Buyer side:- targeted ads,[object Object],- Variable costs: server and traffic maintenance costs- Fixed Cost: rent, salaries ,[object Object]
Seller Side Test with a fake E-MAIL,[object Object],Give me a quote,[object Object],for a bulk sale!,[object Object],Electronics Sellers on Amazon/Ebay,[object Object],FAKE CEO,[object Object],(Steve Feiberg),[object Object],57%,[object Object],showed interest,[object Object],90%,[object Object],sell products ,[object Object],on Amazon,[object Object],[object Object]
22% paid 5~10% transaction fee
78% agreed it was too much
33% actually provided discount proportional to group size,[object Object]
User Side,[object Object],: Online User Survey,[object Object],Power to choose products,[object Object],Discount on products,[object Object],Buyer community feedback,[object Object]
Business Canvas #2,[object Object],Seller: - More customer traffic,[object Object],- Bulk sales with reduced commission,[object Object],Buyer: - Better discounts,[object Object],- Power to choose product deal,[object Object],- Buyer community feedback on products and sellers,[object Object],- Maintainingonline buyer/seller communities and credibilityof transactions- Promotionof website and brand ,[object Object],[object Object]
 Sellers who need more traffic- Server providers,[object Object],- Automated services- Communities of buyers and sellers- Co-creation of value through customer feedback ,[object Object],Multi-sided platformSeller:,[object Object],Trustworthy online sellers  with verifiable websitesBuyer:,[object Object],Online shoppers who are willing to wait to get significant discounts on products,[object Object],[object Object],-Online social networks,[object Object],- Physical resources (IT infrastructure)- Existing social networks -Buyer and seller communities,- Brand awareness,[object Object],Seller side:- transaction fees ,[object Object],Buyer side:- targeted ads,[object Object],- Variable costs: server and traffic maintenance costs- Fixed Cost: rent, salaries ,[object Object]
Key Question for Business Canvas #2,[object Object],HOW CAN WE ATTRACT BUYERS?,[object Object],CUSTOMER ACQUISION COST?,[object Object]
Buyer Demand Test,[object Object],Best Marketing Channel for having buyers is Facebook Wall,[object Object],: 144 Unique Visits, 10 e-mail subscriptions for 3 days,[object Object],Facebook Wall,[object Object],Google Adwords,[object Object],Facebook Ads,[object Object],5%,[object Object],0.08%,[object Object],0.005%,[object Object],(CTR),[object Object],$7.52,[object Object],$4.88,[object Object],$0,[object Object],(COST),[object Object]
Business Canvas #3,[object Object],Seller: - More customer traffic,[object Object],- Bulk sales with reduced commission,[object Object],Buyer: - Better discounts,[object Object],- Power to choose product deal,[object Object],- Buyer community feedback on products and sellers,[object Object],- Maintainingonline buyer/seller communities and credibilityof transactions- Promotionof website and brand ,[object Object],[object Object]
Server providersEstablished services- Online Marketing : Google/Facebook,[object Object],- Automated services- Communities of buyers and sellers- Co-creation of value through customer feedback ,[object Object],Multi-sided platformSeller:,[object Object],Trustworthy online sellers  with verifiable websitesBuyer:,[object Object],Online shoppers who are willing to wait to get significant discounts on products,[object Object],[object Object]
 Online social networks
 Online advertising- Physical resources (IT infrastructure)- Existing social networks -Buyer and seller communities,- Brand awareness,[object Object],Seller side:- transaction fees ,[object Object],Buyer side:- targeted ads,[object Object],[object Object],- Online ad campaigns,[object Object]
Key Question for Business Canvass #3,[object Object],HOW CAN WE ATTRACT SELLERS?,[object Object],COOPERATION WITH SELLERS?,[object Object]
Seller Contact,[object Object],Deal with sellers failed because no group pricing or discount too low.,[object Object],Organize Real Group Deal,[object Object],[object Object]
3 products: HD camera, protein drink, videogame
Videogame was for pre-orderResult,[object Object],[object Object]
Discounts offered < 10%
With shipping and tax still >= Amazon price
David vs. Goliath problem,[object Object]
Seller problem intractable?
Teaching staff: Pivot or else…Beaten, but not defeated,[object Object],[object Object]
Only contacted larger sellers
Sellers need more value
Show them a real websiteFilter advice and stay determined!,[object Object],No Pivot Yet,[object Object]
Solution 1 : Rapid Implementation,[object Object],Implement seller & buyer side features to give sellers  fuller experience. ,[object Object],Site Upgrade Frenzy,[object Object],[object Object]
Buyer facebook login
Online social networking integration
Seller login and registration
Seller bidding
Seller group deal creation page,[object Object]
Solution 1 : Rapid Implementation,[object Object],The Real Deal ,[object Object]
Solution 1 : Rapid Implementation,[object Object],Main page,[object Object],Facebook connect,[object Object],Deal creation by sellers,[object Object],Bidding dialog,[object Object]
Solution 2 : More seller value & spamming,[object Object],Add value for sellers based on mentor and industry expert interviews,[object Object],Add Seller Value,[object Object],[object Object]
Customer contact information
Cross-selling products
Ad banners
Power to create group dealThe Art of Spam,[object Object],[object Object]
Stanford takes notice and issues warning (oops)
Enumerate value propositions
Show live website
Hand out registration codes,[object Object]

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Sxsw New Rules for the New Bubble 031211

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Mike
  2. Stevia
  3. (gray out non bolded items)Talk about highlightsSingle Family Homeowners: Target customer are single family homeownerPayback period: We offer a renewable electricity generation device that has a much faster payback period than competitors. Manufacturing: We can offer this because our product is cheaper than competitors, due to our unique manufacturing process, without compromising performance and aesthetics. Direct Sales: We will sell our product directly to the customer to maximize savings to the customer. Partners: In order simplify the installation of our product, we will need to partner with local permitting officials to facilitate the permitting process. The idea is once the planning department is comfortable with our product, then there no longer needs to be a lengthy review for each installation.
  4. Due to many limitations with residential market for wind turbine applications – decided not right market
  5. Week 6 – ChannelsWhat we learnedNew customer segment -&gt; cities instead of home-ownersRetrofit streetlights with VAWT, with faster payback period than alternatives and competitorsDecrease customer acquisition costChange relationship with City Council – need to get their approvalHOA not as powerful
  6. Interviewed city staff members and utility commissioner to understand if they are interested in product (Assistant Director of Utilities,Purchasing Admin,Project Manager LED-Retrofit,Former City Council Member and Mayor)Came to understand city and its processes to see how to sell to city.City has long review process for project. Large projects need to fit under cities budget plan, which are planned out 2-5 years in advanceSaboteurs can include staff members or city residents who don’t want changeCity’s typically not interested in owning large amount of electrical generation assets, In CA, utilities also typically do not own their own generation units b/c of decoupling industry?Wind developer would own assets, potentially funded through investment bank or nontraditional sourcesDo we want to be manufacturer or wind developer?We will need to initially be the developer for initial pilot projects to prove concept works, before getting large amounts of investments to scale-up businessHigh liability to be developer b/c wind potential difficult to predictBusiness model that relies on cities to own asset is problem They don’t have the budgetConstantly evaluate your value prop
  7. Week 1-2
  8. Week 3 – Value Prop
  9. Week 4 - Customers
  10. Week 5 – Customer Acquisition
  11. Week 6 – Channels
  12. Week 7 – Revenue Model
  13. Week 8 - Partners