SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  20
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Team Catena
Akshay Malhotra
PhD Financial Economics
BS Economics & CS
Bill Benesi
MS Management
BS Strategic Studies
Katie Meyer
BS International
Relations
Theo Strauss
BS Progress
Studies
30 Interviews
China’s cryptocurrency ban presents the U.S. with
an opportunity to strongly influence blockchain
development, attract technical talent, and leverage
digital asset technology. We plan to identify
opportunities for innovation and mechanisms to
capitalize on this space.
Where we started
The CCP’s economic coercion makes countries
such as Australia dependent on China's economy
and vulnerable to the party’s will. To eliminate
China's leverage, the U.S. must analyze which key
Australian industries are most threatened and
determine viable alternative trading partners.
Where we are now
Initially, it seemed that China’s cryptocurrency efforts were
a threat to American economic influence
The CCP’s work on a central bank digital currency seemed like it could disrupt:
1. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
2. American influence in the global financial system.
3. Our allies’ economic independence.
BLOOMBERG
“China’s Digital Currency
Could Challenge Bitcoin
And Even The Dollar”
FORBES
“China Will Use Its Digital
Currency To Compete
With The USD”
“China Wants To
Weaponize Its Currency. A
Digital Version Could Help.”
CNN WSJ
“China Rolls Out Pilot
Test of Digital
Currency.”
However, early interviews showed that crypto innovation
was not as urgent an issue from a competitive perspective
1. The CCP hindered its domestic crypto innovation with a ban on all
non-sanctioned crypto in China
2. Many nations have started researching and launching their own digital
currencies
3. The legal and regulatory frameworks in the U.S. for encouraging crypto
innovation do not exist yet and will not be solidified for some time
Experts expressed that sensible laws governing crypto in the U.S. are needed before
the government can take advantage of the technology.
KEY LEARNING
Experts alerted us to China’s use of coercive diplomacy that
exposes our allies to major political and economic risk
The CCP’s unique style of economic coercion through arbitrarily imposed measures
without an official acknowledgement of the link between their interests and the
actions gives China high leverage and our allies a major source of risk.
“A more direct and relevant problem in the space of Chinese economic tools may be
economic coercion & coercive diplomacy.”
KEY QUOTE – KEITH HENNESSEY, STANFORD
Australia is an ideal case study of Chinese coercive
diplomacy...
1. Recent target of Chinese coercion campaign
2. Second hottest region in terms of Chinese targets for economic coercion
3. Key American ally in China’s neighborhood
4. English-speaking country
5. Middle power: not too big, not too small
How can the U.S. help Australia in responding to and
eventually deterring China’s coercive tactics?
Pivotal Interview: Dr. Derek Scissors, Senior Fellow at AEI
“They could, but they don’t.”
Is it because China doesn’t want to seriously hurt
Australia, or because China needs the iron ore?
“The safe case: 90% - 90%.
The danger case: 90 - 5%.”
Can we turn 90% - 5% into 90% - 50%?
We were asking the wrong question. It wasn’t which
political triggers but which industries were in danger.
KEY LEARNING
A solution: an index of which Australian industries are most
threatened by economic coercion by China
By using Australia as a case study, we can develop a playbook to better anticipate
and counter Cinese economic aggression:
1. Identify asymmetries within key industries on both sides of the Australia-China
trade relationship
2. Determine dependence measures for each key industry
3. Identify alternative trading partners and diversification plans for each key
industry
Trade
Volume
(Billions,
USD)
Threat Index Value
Finding: Australian exports are not as vulnerable as assumed
Trade
Volume
(Billions,
USD)
Threat Index Value
Finding: Australian imports, however, are very vulnerable
Trade
Volume
(Billions,
USD)
Broadcasting Equipment: U.S. & Vietnam
Refined Petroleum: South Korea & Singapore
Threat Index Value
What are alternative trading partners for vulnerable imports?
KEY QUOTE – TARUN CHHABRA, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
Feedback on the Threat Index and Diversification Playbook
was positive
“A playbook to counter Chinese economic coercion is desperately needed and
welcome.”
“Having a playbook from the past instances of coercive measures used by China on
both nations and private industries [would be useful] to understand how to best
counter each instance.”
KEY QUOTE – MATT TURPIN, HOOVER INSTITUTION
KEY QUOTE – CONDOLEEZZA RICE, HOOVER INSTITUTION
“Telecommunications [broadcasting] equipment is the most important item of
import from China to Australia.” Secretary Rice’s intuition validated our threat index.
“The efficacy of their economic policies would make a bell-shaped curve if you plot
it, and we’re on the way down right now.”
But some experts were not convinced about the problem or
the solution
“How do you diversify? Are you going to tell companies not to take a 100 million
dollar Chinese contract? Easy for strategic analysts to say you should sell it to
someone else, but you can’t direct a private business not to sell something to
China.”
KEY QUOTE – DAVID BREWSTER, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE
KEY QUOTE – THOMAS FINGAR, FREEMAN SPOGLI INSTITUTE
What are potential next steps?
1. There is a bipartisan bill that proposes a joint interagency taskforce to
understand and counter Chinese economic coercion. Our solution can nest into
the proposed taskforce.
2. Analysis of our solution relied on interviews with experts with mostly positive
feedback.
3. A logical next step would be to analyze other potentially more exposed
countries to construct threat analyses and prepare diversification solutions,
potentially even automating the entire process.
Questions?
Appendix A1 – Interviewees
Keith Hennessey John Cogan Aubrey Strobel David Lawant Julianne Brands
David Sacks David Becker Carl Thayer Morgan O’Brien Ketian Zhang
Larry Diamond Martjin Rasser Thomas Fingar Gloria Xiong Vivek Viswanathan
Appendix A2 – Interviewees
Glenn Tiffert Matt Turpin
Derek Scissors
Patrick Johnson Matthew Goodman Jean Oi
Alex McCauley Amy Zegart
Andrew Chubb David Brewster
Condoleezza Rice
Iron Ore 66.40% 16.30% 4.23% 2.22% 1.55% 90.70%
Petroleum Gas 24.70% 16.30% 15.90% 5.38% 4.35% 66.63%
Gold 23.10% 19.80% 19.50% 14.80% 12.00% 89.20%
Coal Briquettes 49.40% 16.30% 15.80% 11.40% 3.42% 96.32%
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70%
Diversification Index
Iron Ore 0.234 0.000 0.010 0.010 0.007 2.605
Petroleum
Gas
0.004 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.124
Gold 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.083
Coal
Briquettes
0.099 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 1.033
Dependence Index
Iron Ore 9.486
Petroleum Gas 3.529
Gold 3.300
Coal Briquettes 7.057
Appendix B1 – Australia’s Exports to China (China’s Perspective)
Iron Ore 81.70% 7.69% 6.43% 2.04% 0.71% 98.57%
Petroleum Gas 43.00% 34.70% 9.79% 5.41% 2.26% 95.16%
Gold 37.70% 32.90% 13.10% 5.27% 4.39% 93.36%
Coal Briquettes 24.60% 23.50% 18.20% 9.88% 6.91% 83.09%
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70%
Diversification Index
Iron Ore 0.406 0.007 0.006 0.010 0.009 4.370
Petroleum
Gas
0.063 0.035 0.002 0.004 0.006 1.096
Gold 0.039 0.029 0.000 0.005 0.003 0.751
Coal
Briquettes
0.004 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.131
Dependence Index
Iron Ore 11.671
Petroleum Gas 4.957
Gold 5.386
Coal Briquettes 2.600
Threat Index (0-15)
Iron Ore 5.22
Petroleum Gas 6.43
Gold 7.09
Coal Briquettes 0.54
Note: Non-linear scale, 5 is
average, not much threat,
above 6 should be
considered a reasonable
threat and above 8 is not
good.
Appendix B2 – Australia’s Exports to China (Australia’s Perspective)
Broadcasting Equipment 24.30% 18.10% 5.59% 4.24% 3.56% 55.79%
Computers 29.50% 9.48% 7.39% 7.17% 6.18% 59.72%
Refined Petroleum 22.70% 18.40% 9.34% 6.74% 4.33% 61.51%
Semiconductor Devices 23.00% 7.00% 6.30% 5.67% 5.24% 47.21%
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70%
Diversification Index
Broadcasting Equipment 0.004 0.000 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.217
Computers 0.013 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.256
Refined Petroleum 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.109
Semiconductor Devices 0.003 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.228
Dependence Index
Broadcasting Equipment 0.000
Computers 0.000
Refined Petroleum 0.619
Semiconductor Devices 0.000
Appendix B3 – Australia’s Imports from China (China’s Perspective)
Appendix B4 – Australia’s Imports from China (Australia’s Perspective)
Broadcasting Equipment 60.30% 14.30% 9.64% 2.88% 2.30% 89.42%
Computers 70.70% 7.41% 7.11% 3.85% 1.86% 90.93%
Refined Petroleum 27.60% 18.20% 17.80% 13.90% 7.54% 85.04%
Semiconductor Devices 86.20% 4.69% 1.80% 1.37% 1.02% 95.08%
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70%
Diversification Index
Broadcasting Equipment 0.179 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.006 1.954
Computers 0.278 0.007 0.005 0.007 0.007 3.031
Refined Petroleum 0.009 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.121
Semiconductor Devices 0.465 0.013 0.015 0.011 0.008 5.122
Dependence Index
Broadcasting Equipment 8.614
Computers 1.059
Refined Petroleum 3.943
Semiconductor Devices 0.257
Threat Index (0-15)
Broadcasting Equipment 13.61
Computers 6.06
Refined Petroleum 8.32
Semiconductor Devices 5.26
Note: Non-linear scale, 5 is
average, not much threat,
above 6 should be
considered a reasonable
threat and above 8 is not
good.

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedNeurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Cyber
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - CyberLecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Cyber
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - CyberStanford University
 
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Space
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceLecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Space
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceStanford University
 
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21Stanford University
 
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedAngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Technology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfareTechnology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfareandeedalal
 
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료sciencepeople
 
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료sciencepeople
 
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료sciencepeople
 
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdfsciencepeople
 
Inglorious Basterds
Inglorious Basterds Inglorious Basterds
Inglorious Basterds Rahman Hillol
 
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategyLawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Beijing consensus narrates
Beijing consensus narratesBeijing consensus narrates
Beijing consensus narratesHeather Lawson
 
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedSilknet H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료sciencepeople
 

Tendances (20)

Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedNeurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Neurosmart H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
 
Project Agrippa TIGPC
Project Agrippa TIGPCProject Agrippa TIGPC
Project Agrippa TIGPC
 
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Cyber
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - CyberLecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Cyber
Lecture 8 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Cyber
 
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Space
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceLecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Space
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Space
 
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21
DIU Presentation to Stanford TIGPC Class 10.19.21
 
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedAngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
AngelComms H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
 
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 3 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
 
Technology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfareTechnology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfare
 
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료
뉴스 앤 올디스 10월호 자료
 
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료
별헤는 사람들 9월호 홍승수 박사 자료
 
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in DeterrenceSpace and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
 
Cross Domain Deterrence
Cross Domain DeterrenceCross Domain Deterrence
Cross Domain Deterrence
 
DG2 Neo-Neo Debate
DG2 Neo-Neo DebateDG2 Neo-Neo Debate
DG2 Neo-Neo Debate
 
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 10월호 전명원 교수 자료
 
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf
과학하고앉아있네_블랙홀.pdf
 
Inglorious Basterds
Inglorious Basterds Inglorious Basterds
Inglorious Basterds
 
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
 
Beijing consensus narrates
Beijing consensus narratesBeijing consensus narrates
Beijing consensus narrates
 
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons LearnedSilknet H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
Silknet H4D 2021 Lessons Learned
 
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료
별헤는 사람들 2023년 12월호 전명원 교수 자료
 

Similaire à Team Catena - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition

Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...
Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...
Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...Keith Krach
 
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_roy
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_royPrinciple centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_roy
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_royMohammed Farahna
 
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word) Temp. Online assignment writing service.
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word)  Temp. Online assignment writing service.30 Questionnaire Templates (Word)  Temp. Online assignment writing service.
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word) Temp. Online assignment writing service.Susan White
 
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term Matters
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term MattersRoyal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term Matters
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term MattersDr Raj Thamotheram
 
LSE-PKU Summer School Review
LSE-PKU Summer School ReviewLSE-PKU Summer School Review
LSE-PKU Summer School ReviewQuinn Campbell
 
Global Economy Essay
Global Economy EssayGlobal Economy Essay
Global Economy EssayLisa Martinez
 
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - AcademSara Perez
 
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequences
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequencesRights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequences
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequencesBambang Muliyadi
 
Nursing Application Essay Samples
Nursing Application Essay SamplesNursing Application Essay Samples
Nursing Application Essay SamplesCrystal Wright
 
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith Krach
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith KrachThe China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith Krach
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith KrachKeith Krach
 
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdf
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdfPersuasive Speech Essays.pdf
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdfAshley Ito
 
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"Global Utmaning
 
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and PolicyEnhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and PolicyIlya Klabukov
 
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docxjeremylockett77
 
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful Argu
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful ArguEasy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful Argu
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful ArguSherri Cost
 

Similaire à Team Catena - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition (20)

Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...
Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...
Congressional China Task Force: Executing a Clean Capital Markets Strategy; K...
 
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 2 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
 
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_roy
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_royPrinciple centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_roy
Principle centered leadership-eccssa_conference_march_2013-dipak_roy
 
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
 
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word) Temp. Online assignment writing service.
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word)  Temp. Online assignment writing service.30 Questionnaire Templates (Word)  Temp. Online assignment writing service.
30 Questionnaire Templates (Word) Temp. Online assignment writing service.
 
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term Matters
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term MattersRoyal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term Matters
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term Matters
 
LSE-PKU Summer School Review
LSE-PKU Summer School ReviewLSE-PKU Summer School Review
LSE-PKU Summer School Review
 
Global Economy Essay
Global Economy EssayGlobal Economy Essay
Global Economy Essay
 
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ
(DOC) MUN Position Paper Mohamad Nimer - Academ
 
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequences
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequencesRights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequences
Rights, Wrongs & Returns 2018 year-of choices & consequences
 
Nursing Application Essay Samples
Nursing Application Essay SamplesNursing Application Essay Samples
Nursing Application Essay Samples
 
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith Krach
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith KrachThe China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith Krach
The China Challenge: Senate Commerce Committee, Keith Krach
 
Managerial Economics Question Paper
Managerial Economics Question PaperManagerial Economics Question Paper
Managerial Economics Question Paper
 
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdf
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdfPersuasive Speech Essays.pdf
Persuasive Speech Essays.pdf
 
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"
Stefano Pagliano: "A Global Financial Governance?"
 
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and PolicyEnhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy
Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy
 
Tfr innovation strategy
Tfr innovation strategyTfr innovation strategy
Tfr innovation strategy
 
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx
1. Provide your position on what theorist is most relatable to you.docx
 
Lsi 09.2
Lsi 09.2Lsi 09.2
Lsi 09.2
 
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful Argu
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful ArguEasy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful Argu
Easy Essay Structure. How To Create A Powerful Argu
 

Plus de Stanford University

Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Team LiOn Batteries - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team LiOn Batteries  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam LiOn Batteries  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team LiOn Batteries - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Team Quantum - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Quantum  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Quantum  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Quantum - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Team Acquistion - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Acquistion  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Team Acquistion  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Acquistion - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Stanford University
 
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Stanford University
 
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedAltuna Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedInvisa Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learnedānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedStanford University
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Stanford University
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Stanford University
 
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...Stanford University
 
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...Stanford University
 
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...Stanford University
 
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
 

Plus de Stanford University (17)

Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team LiOn Batteries - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team LiOn Batteries  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam LiOn Batteries  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team LiOn Batteries - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team Quantum - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Quantum  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Quantum  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Quantum - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team Acquistion - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Acquistion  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Team Acquistion  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Acquistion - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Climate Change - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedAltuna Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Altuna Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
 
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons LearnedInvisa Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
Invisa Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
 
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learnedānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
ānanda Engr245 2022 Lessons Learned
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
 
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Drone - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Aurora - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
 
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...
Lecture 6 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Autonomy and...
 
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...
Lecture 6- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - Unmanned Syst...
 
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
 
Semiconductor Industry Tutorial
Semiconductor Industry TutorialSemiconductor Industry Tutorial
Semiconductor Industry Tutorial
 

Dernier

5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...
5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...
5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...CaraSkikne1
 
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxheathfieldcps1
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxDr. Asif Anas
 
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxPISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxEduSkills OECD
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxAditiChauhan701637
 
The Singapore Teaching Practice document
The Singapore Teaching Practice documentThe Singapore Teaching Practice document
The Singapore Teaching Practice documentXsasf Sfdfasd
 
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRADUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRATanmoy Mishra
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17Celine George
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17Celine George
 
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptx
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptxAUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptx
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptxiammrhaywood
 
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesHow to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesCeline George
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxMYDA ANGELICA SUAN
 
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17Celine George
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxraviapr7
 
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17Celine George
 
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education  and Educational PhilosophyPhilosophy of Education  and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education and Educational PhilosophyShuvankar Madhu
 
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxPractical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxKatherine Villaluna
 

Dernier (20)

5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...
5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...
5 charts on South Africa as a source country for international student recrui...
 
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
 
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptxPISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
PISA-VET launch_El Iza Mohamedou_19 March 2024.pptx
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
 
The Singapore Teaching Practice document
The Singapore Teaching Practice documentThe Singapore Teaching Practice document
The Singapore Teaching Practice document
 
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRADUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
 
Prelims of Kant get Marx 2.0: a general politics quiz
Prelims of Kant get Marx 2.0: a general politics quizPrelims of Kant get Marx 2.0: a general politics quiz
Prelims of Kant get Marx 2.0: a general politics quiz
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
 
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quizFinals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
 
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptx
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptxAUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptx
AUDIENCE THEORY -- FANDOM -- JENKINS.pptx
 
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesHow to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
 
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
 
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
 
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education  and Educational PhilosophyPhilosophy of Education  and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
 
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdfPersonal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
 
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptxPractical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
Practical Research 1 Lesson 9 Scope and delimitation.pptx
 

Team Catena - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition

  • 1. Team Catena Akshay Malhotra PhD Financial Economics BS Economics & CS Bill Benesi MS Management BS Strategic Studies Katie Meyer BS International Relations Theo Strauss BS Progress Studies 30 Interviews China’s cryptocurrency ban presents the U.S. with an opportunity to strongly influence blockchain development, attract technical talent, and leverage digital asset technology. We plan to identify opportunities for innovation and mechanisms to capitalize on this space. Where we started The CCP’s economic coercion makes countries such as Australia dependent on China's economy and vulnerable to the party’s will. To eliminate China's leverage, the U.S. must analyze which key Australian industries are most threatened and determine viable alternative trading partners. Where we are now
  • 2. Initially, it seemed that China’s cryptocurrency efforts were a threat to American economic influence The CCP’s work on a central bank digital currency seemed like it could disrupt: 1. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. 2. American influence in the global financial system. 3. Our allies’ economic independence. BLOOMBERG “China’s Digital Currency Could Challenge Bitcoin And Even The Dollar” FORBES “China Will Use Its Digital Currency To Compete With The USD” “China Wants To Weaponize Its Currency. A Digital Version Could Help.” CNN WSJ “China Rolls Out Pilot Test of Digital Currency.”
  • 3. However, early interviews showed that crypto innovation was not as urgent an issue from a competitive perspective 1. The CCP hindered its domestic crypto innovation with a ban on all non-sanctioned crypto in China 2. Many nations have started researching and launching their own digital currencies 3. The legal and regulatory frameworks in the U.S. for encouraging crypto innovation do not exist yet and will not be solidified for some time Experts expressed that sensible laws governing crypto in the U.S. are needed before the government can take advantage of the technology. KEY LEARNING
  • 4. Experts alerted us to China’s use of coercive diplomacy that exposes our allies to major political and economic risk The CCP’s unique style of economic coercion through arbitrarily imposed measures without an official acknowledgement of the link between their interests and the actions gives China high leverage and our allies a major source of risk. “A more direct and relevant problem in the space of Chinese economic tools may be economic coercion & coercive diplomacy.” KEY QUOTE – KEITH HENNESSEY, STANFORD
  • 5. Australia is an ideal case study of Chinese coercive diplomacy... 1. Recent target of Chinese coercion campaign 2. Second hottest region in terms of Chinese targets for economic coercion 3. Key American ally in China’s neighborhood 4. English-speaking country 5. Middle power: not too big, not too small How can the U.S. help Australia in responding to and eventually deterring China’s coercive tactics?
  • 6. Pivotal Interview: Dr. Derek Scissors, Senior Fellow at AEI “They could, but they don’t.” Is it because China doesn’t want to seriously hurt Australia, or because China needs the iron ore? “The safe case: 90% - 90%. The danger case: 90 - 5%.” Can we turn 90% - 5% into 90% - 50%? We were asking the wrong question. It wasn’t which political triggers but which industries were in danger. KEY LEARNING
  • 7. A solution: an index of which Australian industries are most threatened by economic coercion by China By using Australia as a case study, we can develop a playbook to better anticipate and counter Cinese economic aggression: 1. Identify asymmetries within key industries on both sides of the Australia-China trade relationship 2. Determine dependence measures for each key industry 3. Identify alternative trading partners and diversification plans for each key industry
  • 8. Trade Volume (Billions, USD) Threat Index Value Finding: Australian exports are not as vulnerable as assumed
  • 9. Trade Volume (Billions, USD) Threat Index Value Finding: Australian imports, however, are very vulnerable
  • 10. Trade Volume (Billions, USD) Broadcasting Equipment: U.S. & Vietnam Refined Petroleum: South Korea & Singapore Threat Index Value What are alternative trading partners for vulnerable imports?
  • 11. KEY QUOTE – TARUN CHHABRA, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL Feedback on the Threat Index and Diversification Playbook was positive “A playbook to counter Chinese economic coercion is desperately needed and welcome.” “Having a playbook from the past instances of coercive measures used by China on both nations and private industries [would be useful] to understand how to best counter each instance.” KEY QUOTE – MATT TURPIN, HOOVER INSTITUTION KEY QUOTE – CONDOLEEZZA RICE, HOOVER INSTITUTION “Telecommunications [broadcasting] equipment is the most important item of import from China to Australia.” Secretary Rice’s intuition validated our threat index.
  • 12. “The efficacy of their economic policies would make a bell-shaped curve if you plot it, and we’re on the way down right now.” But some experts were not convinced about the problem or the solution “How do you diversify? Are you going to tell companies not to take a 100 million dollar Chinese contract? Easy for strategic analysts to say you should sell it to someone else, but you can’t direct a private business not to sell something to China.” KEY QUOTE – DAVID BREWSTER, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE KEY QUOTE – THOMAS FINGAR, FREEMAN SPOGLI INSTITUTE
  • 13. What are potential next steps? 1. There is a bipartisan bill that proposes a joint interagency taskforce to understand and counter Chinese economic coercion. Our solution can nest into the proposed taskforce. 2. Analysis of our solution relied on interviews with experts with mostly positive feedback. 3. A logical next step would be to analyze other potentially more exposed countries to construct threat analyses and prepare diversification solutions, potentially even automating the entire process.
  • 15. Appendix A1 – Interviewees Keith Hennessey John Cogan Aubrey Strobel David Lawant Julianne Brands David Sacks David Becker Carl Thayer Morgan O’Brien Ketian Zhang Larry Diamond Martjin Rasser Thomas Fingar Gloria Xiong Vivek Viswanathan
  • 16. Appendix A2 – Interviewees Glenn Tiffert Matt Turpin Derek Scissors Patrick Johnson Matthew Goodman Jean Oi Alex McCauley Amy Zegart Andrew Chubb David Brewster Condoleezza Rice
  • 17. Iron Ore 66.40% 16.30% 4.23% 2.22% 1.55% 90.70% Petroleum Gas 24.70% 16.30% 15.90% 5.38% 4.35% 66.63% Gold 23.10% 19.80% 19.50% 14.80% 12.00% 89.20% Coal Briquettes 49.40% 16.30% 15.80% 11.40% 3.42% 96.32% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70% Diversification Index Iron Ore 0.234 0.000 0.010 0.010 0.007 2.605 Petroleum Gas 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.003 0.124 Gold 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.083 Coal Briquettes 0.099 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 1.033 Dependence Index Iron Ore 9.486 Petroleum Gas 3.529 Gold 3.300 Coal Briquettes 7.057 Appendix B1 – Australia’s Exports to China (China’s Perspective)
  • 18. Iron Ore 81.70% 7.69% 6.43% 2.04% 0.71% 98.57% Petroleum Gas 43.00% 34.70% 9.79% 5.41% 2.26% 95.16% Gold 37.70% 32.90% 13.10% 5.27% 4.39% 93.36% Coal Briquettes 24.60% 23.50% 18.20% 9.88% 6.91% 83.09% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70% Diversification Index Iron Ore 0.406 0.007 0.006 0.010 0.009 4.370 Petroleum Gas 0.063 0.035 0.002 0.004 0.006 1.096 Gold 0.039 0.029 0.000 0.005 0.003 0.751 Coal Briquettes 0.004 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.131 Dependence Index Iron Ore 11.671 Petroleum Gas 4.957 Gold 5.386 Coal Briquettes 2.600 Threat Index (0-15) Iron Ore 5.22 Petroleum Gas 6.43 Gold 7.09 Coal Briquettes 0.54 Note: Non-linear scale, 5 is average, not much threat, above 6 should be considered a reasonable threat and above 8 is not good. Appendix B2 – Australia’s Exports to China (Australia’s Perspective)
  • 19. Broadcasting Equipment 24.30% 18.10% 5.59% 4.24% 3.56% 55.79% Computers 29.50% 9.48% 7.39% 7.17% 6.18% 59.72% Refined Petroleum 22.70% 18.40% 9.34% 6.74% 4.33% 61.51% Semiconductor Devices 23.00% 7.00% 6.30% 5.67% 5.24% 47.21% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70% Diversification Index Broadcasting Equipment 0.004 0.000 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.217 Computers 0.013 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.256 Refined Petroleum 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.109 Semiconductor Devices 0.003 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.228 Dependence Index Broadcasting Equipment 0.000 Computers 0.000 Refined Petroleum 0.619 Semiconductor Devices 0.000 Appendix B3 – Australia’s Imports from China (China’s Perspective)
  • 20. Appendix B4 – Australia’s Imports from China (Australia’s Perspective) Broadcasting Equipment 60.30% 14.30% 9.64% 2.88% 2.30% 89.42% Computers 70.70% 7.41% 7.11% 3.85% 1.86% 90.93% Refined Petroleum 27.60% 18.20% 17.80% 13.90% 7.54% 85.04% Semiconductor Devices 86.20% 4.69% 1.80% 1.37% 1.02% 95.08% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 70% Diversification Index Broadcasting Equipment 0.179 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.006 1.954 Computers 0.278 0.007 0.005 0.007 0.007 3.031 Refined Petroleum 0.009 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.121 Semiconductor Devices 0.465 0.013 0.015 0.011 0.008 5.122 Dependence Index Broadcasting Equipment 8.614 Computers 1.059 Refined Petroleum 3.943 Semiconductor Devices 0.257 Threat Index (0-15) Broadcasting Equipment 13.61 Computers 6.06 Refined Petroleum 8.32 Semiconductor Devices 5.26 Note: Non-linear scale, 5 is average, not much threat, above 6 should be considered a reasonable threat and above 8 is not good.