1. ELNIÑO
STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
(AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS
FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)
SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE

2. 3,432
wind energy (MW)
2,246
1,770
1,460
684
444
322
198 236
137
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association

4. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
“ add[s] significantly to the
uncertainty in predicating the
energy output of a wind farm at
a particular location during its
projected lifetime. ”

5. INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
“ not well understood ”

6. Uncorrected wind speed records contain discontinuities caused by non-climatic effects
Source: Wan et al., Journal of Climate, 2010

8. Wan, H. Wang, X.L. and Swail, V.R. (2010).
Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian
near-surface winds. Journal of Climate 23, 1209-1225.

9. mean annual wind speed
@ 10 m

10. Wind farms on the Canadian Prairies produce nearly one gigawatt of electricity
photo: Andy van der Raadt

11. mean annual wind speed
@ 10 m

12. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

13. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

14. Mean winter wind speed, southern Canadian Prairies
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

15. Low-wind winters (1954 to 2006)
1969 • 1978 • 1983
1993 • 1995 • 1998
legend not to scale

16. wind anomalies during the 1998 winter
legend not to scale

17. SST and geopotential height anomalies during low-wind winters

18. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

19. Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

21. scalar wind anomalies
@ 250 millibars

22. scalar wind anomalies
@ 250 millibars

23. “ [The next strong El Niño] ... may also test the ability of
Prairie wind farms to maintain expected energy outputs
during a prolonged interval of unusually weak winds.
”
Geophysical Research Letters
December 2009

24. Sea-surface temperature anomalies during the 2009-2010 winter

25. Scalar wind anomalies @ 250 mb during the 2009-2010 winter

26. “ ...our wind resources in the quarter were down
approximately 30 percent, compared to what we
would see in a normal year. As a result, expected
production from our wind facilities was lower by
”
roughly 200 gigawatt hours.
Stephen Snyder
President and Chief Executive Officer
April 27, 2010

27. ELNIÑO
STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
(AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS
FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)
SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE