SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  23
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Challenges in Pedestrian Flow Modelling 
Macroscopic Modeling of Crowds capturing Self-Organisation 
Serge Hoogendoorn, Winnie Daamen, Femke van Wageningen-Kessels, and others…
Societal Urgency 
Examples showing increasing importance of crowd modeling & management 
Religious or social gathersings, events, (re-)urbanisaiton, increase use of transit and rail… 
• Situations where large crowds gather are 
frequent (sports events, religious events, 
festivals, etc.); occurrence of 
‘spontaneous events’ due to social media 
• Transit (in particular train) is becoming 
more important leading to overcrowding 
of train stations under normal and 
exceptional situations (e.g. renovation of 
Utrecht Central Station) 
• Walking (and cycling) are becoming 
more important due to (re-)urbanisation 
(strong reduction car-mobility in Dutch 
cities) 
• When things go wrong, societal impacts 
are huge!
How can models be used to 
support planning, organisation, 
design, and control? 
• Testing (new) designs of stations, 
buildings, stadions, etc. 
• Testing evacuation plans for buildings 
• Testing crowd management and 
control measures and strategies 
• Training of crowd managers 
• On-line crowd management systems 
as part of state estimation and 
prediction 
Development of valid models 
requires good data!!! 
Courtesy of Prof. H. Mahmassani 
Engineering challenges 
Societal urgencies leads to demand for engineering solutions 
Importance of Theory and Models for Pedestrian and Crowd Dynamics
Understanding Pedestrian Flows 
Field observations, controlled experiments, virtual laboratories 
Data collection remains a challenge, but many new opportunities arise!
Empirical characteristics and relations 
• Experimental research capacity values: 
• Strong influence of composition of flow 
• Importance of geometric factors 
Fundamental diagram pedestrian flows 
• Relation between density and flow / speed 
• Big influence of context! 
• Example shows regular FD and FD 
determined from Jamarat Bridge 
Traffic flow characteristics for pedestrians… 
Capacity, fundamental diagram, and influence of context
Phenomena in pedestrian flow operations 
Fascinating world of pedestrian flow dynamics! 
Examples self-organisation 
• Self-organisation of dynamic lanes in 
bi-directional flow 
• Formation of diagonal stripes in 
crossing flows 
• Viscous fingering in multi-directional 
flows 
Characteristics: 
• Self-organisation yields moderate 
reduction of flow efficiency 
• Chaotic features, e.g. multiple 
‘stable’ patterns may result 
• Limits of self-organisation
Limits to efficient self-organisation 
Overloading causes phase transitions 
Examples failing self-organisation 
• When conditions become too crowded 
efficient self-organisation ‘breaks 
down’ 
• Flow performance (effective 
capacity) decreases substantially, 
causing cascade effect as demand 
stays at same level 
• New phases make occur: start-stop 
waves, turbulence 
Network level characteristics 
• Generalised network fundamental 
diagram can be sensibly defined for 
pedestrian flows!
The Modelling Challenge 
Reproducing key phenomena in pedestrian dynamics 
Towards useful pedestrian flow models… 
Challenge is to come up with a model that 
can reproduce or predict pedestrian flow 
dynamics under a variety of circumstances 
and conditions 
Inductive approach: when designing a model, 
consider the following: 
• Which are the key phenomena / characteristics 
you need to represent? 
• Which theories could be used to represent these 
phenomena? 
• Which mathematical constructs are applicable 
and useful? 
• Which representation levels are appropriate 
• How to tackle calibration and validation?
Pedestrian modelling approaches 
Representation and behaviour roles 
Examples of micro, meso, and macroscopic pedestrian modelling approaches 
Representation: 
Behavioural rules: 
Individual particles Continuum 
Individual behaviour 
(predictive) 
Microscopic simulation 
models (social forces, 
CA, NOMAD, etc.) 
Gas-kinetic models 
(Hoogendoorn, Helbing) 
Aggregate behaviour 
(descriptive) 
Particle discretisation 
models (SimPed) 
Macroscopic continuum 
models (Hughes, 
Columbo, Hoogendoorn) 
Research emphasis on microscopic simulation models and on walking behaviour
1. Introduction 
Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model 
Interaction modelling by using differential game theory 
Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… 
This memo aims at connecting the microscopic modelling principles underlying the 
social-forces model to identify a macroscopic flow model capturing interactions amongst 
pedestrians. To this end, we use the anisotropic version of the social-forces model pre-sented 
by Helbing to derive equilibrium relations for the speed and the direction, given 
the desired walking speed and direction, and the speed and direction changes due to 
interactions. 
Application of differential game theory: 
• Pedestrians minimise predicted walking cost, due 
to straying from intended path, being too close to 
others / obstacles and effort, yielding ai(t): 
Level of anisotropy 
reflected by this 
parameter 
2. Microscopic foundations 
We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of 
pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: 
(1) ~ai = 
~v0 
i ~vi 
⌧i  Ai 
X 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
• Simplified model is similar to Social Forces model of Helbing 
Face validity? 
• Model results in reasonable fundamental diagrams 
• What about self-organisation? 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
◆ 
where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing 
from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion 
of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, ~vi 
that ~ai 
will 
be introduced later. 
~xi 
In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction 
for which this occurs is given by: 
(2) ~vi = ~v0 
i  ⌧iAi 
X 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
~v0 
i 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
◆ 
~nij 
~xj 
Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x)
Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model 
Interaction modelling by using differential game theory 
Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… 
Example shows lane formation process for 
homogeneous groups... 
NOMAD model (like social forces model) captures lane formation 
• 
Heterogeneity yields 
less efficient lane formation (freezing by heating)
Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model 
Interaction modelling by using differential game theory 
Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… 
Is NOMAD able to reproduce breakdown in case of oversaturation? 
• Testing NOMAD / Social Forces model using different demand patterns to 
investigate if and under which conditions breakdown occurs 
• Large impact of population heterogeneity (‘freezing by heating’) + reaction time 
Heterogeneity yields 
less efficient lane formation (freezing by heating) 
*) Work by Xiaoxia Yang, Winnie Daamen, Serge Paul Hoogendoorn, Yao Chen, Hairong Dong 
•M ic ro s c o p ic m o de l s h ave b e e n 
re l a t i v e l y s uc c e s s f u l , a l t h o u g h 
s e ve r a l is s ue s a re s t i l l t o be 
t ac k l e d 
• Ca l i b ra t i o n a n d v a l i d a t i o n a re 
c r i t ic a l i s s ue s t o t a c k le 
• I n c l us io n o f c u l t u ra l 
d i f fe re n c e s, i m p ac t s o f 
wa l k i ng p u r p o s e 
•R o u te c h o ic e i n ge ne r a l 
re q u i re s m o re at te n t io n !
60 
40 
20 
48 
28 
44 48 
0 20 40 60 80 
x1-axis (m) 
0 
x2-axis (m) 
16 
20 
24 
28 
28 28 
32 
32 
32 
36 
40 
40 
44 
48 
52 
52 
52 
56 
56 
60 
64 
72 
Dynamic programming 
• NOMAD route choice: 
• Let W(t,x) denote minimum 
expected cost (travel time) 
from (t,x) to destination(s) 
• W(t,x) satisfies HJB equation: 
− 
∂W 
∂t 
= L(t, 
! 
x, 
! 
v0 )+ 
! 
vi 
0 = 
!γ 
! 
v0∇W + 
0 ⋅V0 
σ 2 
2 
ΔW 
where 
!γ 
0 = −∇W/ ||∇W || 
!γ 
0 
• Optimal direction 
perpendicular to iso-cost curves 
• Efficient numerical solution 
approaches available… 
Completing the Model 
Route choice modelling by Stochastic Optimal Control 
Optimal routing in continuous time and space…
Continuum modelling 
Dynamic assignment in continuous time and space 
Macroscopic traffic flow modelling… 
Multi-class macroscopic model of Hoogendoorn and Bovy (2004) 
• Kinematic wave model for pedestrian flow for each destination d 
∂ρd 
∂t 
+∇⋅ 
! 
qd = 
! 
qd = r − s with 
d !γ 
!γ 
d ⋅ρd ⋅V(ρ1,...,ρD ) 
d ⋅V(ρ1,...,ρD ) 
• Here V is the (multi-class) equilibrium speed; the optimal direction: 
!γ 
d (t, 
! 
x) = − 
∇Wd (t, 
! 
x) 
||∇Wd (t, 
! 
x) || 
• Stems from minimum cost Wd(t,x) for each (set of) destination(s) d 
• Is this a reasonable model? 
• No, since there is only pre-determined (global) route choice, the model will have 
unrealistic features
Ω 
Continuum modelling 
Dynamic assignment in continuous time and space 
Macroscopic traffic flow modelling… 
Fig. 1. Considered walking area ⌦ 
Fig. 2. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. 
Solution? Include a term describing local route / direction choice…
social-forces model to identify a macroscopic flow model capturing interactions amongst 
pedestrians. To this end, we 2. use Microscopic the anisotropic foundations 
version of the social-forces model pre-sented 
We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of 
Continuum modelling - part 2 
Computationally efficient modelling 
Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… 
by Helbing to derive equilibrium relations for the speed and the direction, given 
pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: 
We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of 
X 
 
 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
◆ 
the desired walking ~v0 
i ~speed vi 
and direction, and the speed and direction changes due to 
interactions. 
Rij 
Bi 
pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: 
⌧i  Ai 
j 
exp 
2. Microscopic foundations 
(1) ~ai = 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing 
from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion 
of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will 
be introduced later. 
We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of 
• NOMAD / Social-forces model as starting point: 
pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: 
In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction 
(1) ~ai = 
~v0 
i ~vi 
⌧i  Ai 
X 
for which this occurs is given by: 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
X 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
• Equilibrium relation stemming from model (ai = 0): 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
◆ 
1 + cos $ij 
◆ 
where (2) Rij denotes ~vi = ~v0 
the  ⌧distance iAi 
exp 
between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing 
from pedestrian i to i j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction 2 
of i and the postion 
j 
of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will 
be Let introduced us now later. 
make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) 
denote the density, to be interpreted as the probability that a pedestrian is present on 
location ~x at time instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all 
pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: 
(3) 
~v = ~v0(~x)  ⌧A 
In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction 
• Interpret density as the ‘probability’ of a pedestrian being present, which gives a 
for macroscopic which this occurs equilibrium is given relation by: 
(expected velocity), which equals: 
ZZ 
(2) ~vi = ~v0 
✓ 
||~y  ~x|| 
i  ⌧iAi 
X 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
1 + cos $ij 
◆ 
~y  ~x 
||~y  ~x|| 
2 
◆ 
exp 
B 
◆✓ 
# + (1  #) 
1 + cos $xy(~v) 
2 
⇢(t, ~y)d~y 
Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) 
~y2⌦(~x) 
denote Here, ⌦(~the x) density, denotes to the be area interpreted around the as considered the probability point that ~x for a which pedestrian we determine is present the 
on 
location interactions. ~x at Note time that: 
instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all 
pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: 
((3) 
4) cos $xy(~v) = 
• Combine with conservation of pedestrian equation yields complete model, but 
numerical integration is computationally very intensive 
ZZ 
~v 
||~v|| · 
~y  ~x 
||~y  ~x|| ✓ 
◆✓ 
◆ 
(1) ~ai = 
~v0 
i ~vi 
⌧i  Ai 
X 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
◆ 
where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing 
from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion 
of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will 
be introduced later. 
In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction 
for which this occurs is given by: 
(2) ~vi = ~v0 
i  ⌧iAi 
X 
j 
exp 
 
 
Rij 
Bi 
# 
· ~nij · 
✓ 
#i + (1  #i) 
1 + cos $ij 
2 
◆ 
Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) 
denote the density, to be interpreted as the probability that a pedestrian is present on 
location ~x at time instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all 
pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: 
(3) 
ZZ 
~v = ~v0(~x)  ⌧A 
~y2⌦(~x) 
exp 
✓ 
||~y  ~x|| 
B 
◆✓ 
# + (1  #) 
1 + cos $xy(~v) 
2 
◆ 
~y  ~x 
||~y  ~x|| 
⇢(t, ~y)d~y 
Here, ⌦(~x) denotes the area around the considered point ~x for which we determine the 
interactions. Note that:
Continuum modelling - part 2 
Computationally efficient modelling 
Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… 
SERGE P. HOOGENDOORN 
FROM MICROSCOPIC TO MACROSCOPIC INTERACTION MODELING Furthermore, we see that for ~↵, we find: 
From this expression, we can find both the equilibrium speed and the equilibrium direc-tion, 
FROM MICROSCOPIC TO MACROSCOPIC INTERACTION MODELING Furthermore, we see that for ~↵, we find: 
which in turn can be used in the macroscopic model. 
We can think of approximating this expression, by using the following linear approx-imation 
properties 
• of Taylor the (10) series density approximation: 
around ~x: 
~v 
~↵(~v) = ↵~↵(~· 
v) ~v 
= ↵0 0 · 
expressions (14) and ⇢((t, 15) ~y) describing = ⇢(t, ~x) + the (~y equilibrium 
− ~x) · r⇢(||~t, v|| 
~x) + O(||~||~v|| 
y − ~x||2) 
(Can we determine this directly from the integrals?) 
Using that we determine yields the this direction expression a From closed-this Eq. does form directly into (not 6), 4.1. expression Eq. with depend Analysis from (~v 3) = yields: 
for on ~e the of ↵the V 0, model integrals?) 
we which 
equilibrium can properties 
derive: 
velocity , which is 
From Eq. given (6), by the with equilibrium ~v = ~e · V speed we can and · derive: 
direction: 
the density (itself 11) has no ~v e↵= ect, ~v0(~x) and − that ~↵(~v)⇢(only V t, = ~x) ||~the 
v0 − − $(~#v)t, ~x) 
0 · r⇢(r⇢|| − ↵0⇢ 
influence the and 
direction. We will now discuss some 
Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. 290 Let us first take a look at expressions (14) and (15) describing V = ||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| − ↵0⇢ 
speed and direction. Notice first that the direction does not depend implies that the magnitude of the density itself has no e↵ect, gradient of the density does influence the direction. We will other properties, first by considering a homogeneous flow (r⇢ 295 ↵(~v) and $(~v) defined respectively by: 
considering a homogeneous flow (r⇢ = ~0), and then 
(12) ~e = 
~↵(~v) = ⌧A 
ZZ 
($ = 1) and an anisotropic flow ($ = 0). 
~y2⌦(~x) 
exp 
✓ 
−||~y − ~x|| 
~v0 − #0 · r⇢ 
V + ↵0⇢ 
~v0 B 
− #0 · r⇢ 
V + ↵0⇢ 
◆✓ 
= 
 + (1 − ) 
~v0 − #0 · r⇢ 
||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| 
1 + cos 'xy(~v) 
~v0 − #0 · r⇢ 
2 
||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| 
◆ 
~y − ~x 
||~y − ~x|| 
d~y 
~e = 
= 
Note that the direction does not depend on ↵0, which implies that the magnitude the density itself has no e↵ect on the direction, while the gradient of the density influence the direction. 
α =πτ AB2 (1−λ ) and β= 2πτ AB3(1+λ ) 
0 0 ||~v0|| − 0 − • with: 
• Check behaviour of model by looking at isotropic flow ( ) and homogeneous 
flow conditions ( ) 
• Multi-class generalisation + Godunov scheme numerical approximation 
conditions 
that the direction does not depend on ↵0, which implies that the magnitude density $(~v) itself = ⌧A 
has no e↵ect on the direction, while the gradient of the density influence the direction. 
ZZ 
by considering an isotropic flow ($ = 1) and an anisotropic flow 4.1.1. Homogeneous flow conditions 
homogeneous conditions, i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. (14) simplifies 
2.1. Homogeneous flow conditions. Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, 
~y2⌦(~x) 
i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. (11) simplifies to 
exp 
✓ 
−||~y − ~x|| 
B 
◆✓ 
 + (1 − ) 
1 + cos 'xy(~v) 
2 
◆ 
||~y − ~x||d~y 
To investigate the behaviour of these integrals, we have numerically approximated 
Homogeneous flow conditions. Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, 
v0|| − ↵0⇢ = V 0 − ↵0⇢ (16) 
! 
v = ! 
e ⋅V
~qd = ~#d(⇢1, ..., ⇢D, r⇢1, ..., r⇢D) · ⇢d · U(⇢1, ..., ⇢D) 5.1. Introducing the base model and the scenarios 
Our base model is defined by using a simple linear speed-density relation U(⇢) = v0 ·(1⇢/⇢jam) = 1.34·(1We will use ! = ⌘ = 1 for  = d and ! = ⌘ = 4 otherwise, meaning that the impact of the densities of groups are substantially higher. Finally, in the base model we will only consider the impact of the crowdedness i.e. ↵d = 0. 
To test the base model, and the di↵erent variants on it, we will use three scenarios: 
1. Unidirectional flow scenario, mostly used to show flow dispersion compared to the example presented in 3.2. In this scenario, pedestrians enter on the left side of the forty by forty meter area and walk towards 2. Continuum modelling - part 2 
Computationally efficient modelling 
Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… 
Crossing flow scenario, where the first group of pedestrians is generated on the left, and walks to the right, the second group is generated at the bottom of the area, and moves up. 
3. Bi-directional flow scenario, where two groups of pedestrians are generated at respectively the left and side of the forty by forty meter area. 
In all scenarios, pedestrians are generated on the edges of the area between -5 and 5. 
5.2. Impact of local route choice of flow dispersion 
Let us first revisit the example presented in section 3.2, shown in Fig. 1. The example considered a uni-directional 
pedestrian flow with fixed (global) route choice. The resulting flow operations showed no lateral dispersion which appears not realistic since it caused big di↵erences in speeds and travel times for pedestrians spatially very close. 
Including the local choice term 'd causes dispersion in a lateral sense: since pedestrians avoid high density densities will disperse and smooth over the area, see Fig. 3. The resulting flow conditions appear much more that the situation that occurred in case the local route choice model was not included. 
• Uni-directional flow situation 
• Picture shows differences 
between situation without 
and with local route choice 
for two time instances 
• Model introduces ‘lateral 
diffusion’ since pedestrians 
will look for lower density 
areas actively 
• Diffusion can be controlled by 
choosing parameters 
differently 
• Model shows plausible 
behaviour 
Ω 
y 
y′ 
Fig. 1. Considered walking area ⌦ 
Fig. 2. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. 
To remedy these issues, in this paper we put forward a dynamic route choice model, that takes care of the the global route choice behaviour is determined pre-trip and does not include the impact of changing flow conditions 
that may result in additional costs. To this end, we introduce a local route choice component that reflects additional 
local cost 'd (e.g. extra delays, discomfort) caused by the prevailing flow conditions. We assume that these dependent on the (spatial changes in the) class-specific densities. 
In the remainder, we will assume that the local route cost function 'd can be expressed as a function of the densities and density gradients. By di↵erentiating between the classes, we can distinguish between local costs incurred by interacting with pedestrians in the same class (walking into the same direction), and between interactions. As a result, we have for the flow vector the following expression: 
Fig. 3. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. For the simulations, we linear fundamental diagram U(⇢) = v0  ↵0⇢. The simulations where performed using a newly developed Godunov scheme for two dimensional
Continuum modelling - part 2 
Computationally efficient modelling 
Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… 
• Simulation results 
also show formation 
of diagonal stripes… 
• Patterns which are 
formed depend on 
parameters of models 
• In particular, non-equal 
impact of own 
class and other 
classes on diversion 
behaviour appears 
important
demand is very small. The reason is that we considered the average outflow for the entire the start-up period where (0.1 P/m/the s), no outflow self-organised is patterns still zero. 
occur: the resulting densities are suciently low implying that there Continuum modelling room to simply pass trough the other flow without the need to form structures to increase ecient interaction. 
The figure shows clearly For higher how demands, self-- we organisation part see self-organised 2 
and patterns. the failing thereof impacts Until a demand of say 0.18 P/m/the s, we efficiency see diagonal moment Computationally that the demand formation. efficient exceeds However, modelling 
0.18 if the P/demand m/s, becomes the outflow too large, / the demand neat self-organisation ratio decreases seen at lower strongly demand seems to fail. We still see forms of self-organisation, where pedestrians walking into a certain direction Also note that between in homogeneous 0.22 P/m/groups s ad that 0.38 move as P/a m/block s, though the demand the other classes. - outflow If the demand relation increases appears further, Connecting microscopic stagnates to macroscopic completely and a full models… 
still some self-organised patterns occur that gridlock sometimes results. 
leads to (temporary) reasonable 0.38 P/m/s onward, the outflow completely stagnates and a grid-lock situation occurs. 
• Whether self-organisation 
occurs depends on 
demand level 
• Low demand levels, no 
self-organisation 
• Self-organisation fails for 
high demands and results 
in complete grid-lock (no 
outflow) 
• Macroscopic model 
appears able to 
qualitatively reproduce 
crowd characteristics! 
Demand = 0.15 P/m/s 
Demand = 0.10 P/m/s 
1 
0.8 
0.6 
0.4 
Demand = 0.18 P/m/s Demand = 0.25 P/m/s 
0.2 
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 
Fig. 6. Density contour plot (left) and scaled outflow rate (right). 
0 
demand 
outflow / demand 
left to right 
down to up 
Failing self-organisation 
Grid-lock 
Fig. 7. Density contour plot (left) and scaled outflow rate (right).
Continuum modelling - part 2 
Computationally efficient modelling 
Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… 
• Model seems to reproduce self-organised patterns (e.g. example below shows 
lane formation for bi-directional flows)
Applications? 
Use of macroscopic flow model in optimisation 
• Work presented at TRB 2013 proposes optimisation technique to minimise 
evacuation times 
• Bi-level approach combining optimal routing (HJB equation) and continuum flow 
model (presented here) 
• Preliminary results are very promising 
No redistribution of 5 
queues (initial iteration) 
x−axis (m) 
50 
45 
40 
35 
30 
y−axis (m) 
Densities at t = 25.1 s 
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 
50 
45 
40 
35 
30 
25 
25 
20 
20 
15 
15 
10 
10 
5 
5 
4.5 
4.5 
4 
3.5 
4 
3.5 
3 
3 
2.5 
2.5 
2 
2 
1.5 
1.5 
1 
1 
0.5 
0.5 
0 
x−axis (m) 
y−axis (m) 
Densities at t = 125.1 s 
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 
50 
45 
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
5 
4.5 
4 
3.5 
3 
2.5 
2 
1.5 
1 
0.5 
0 
45 50 
5 
4.5 
4 
3.5 
3 
2.5 
2 
1.5 
1 
0.5 
0 
x−axis (m) 
y−axis (m) 
Densities at t = 125.1 s 
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 
5 
0 
Distribution of queues 
considering reduced speeds
Want to know more? Stay in touch! 
• Validation and calibration is a major challenge: need 
methodologies, data and information extraction methods 
• Specialised models may be needed e.g. for train stations, for 
evacuations and for areas where pedestrians interact with vehicles 
• Differences between cultures, genders, ages, climates should be 
considered 
• Route choice models are even less developed than flow models 
and therefore also need more attention 
• Operations are strongly context dependent as so should the 
models! No ‘one size fits all’! 
• Professionals should also be considered in our efforts and be 
educated n how to use our tools and models and what they can 
expect from them and what not

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

O & d survey
O & d survey O & d survey
O & d survey
 
Transportation management
Transportation managementTransportation management
Transportation management
 
Traffic simulation
Traffic simulationTraffic simulation
Traffic simulation
 
Microscopic traffic stream model
Microscopic traffic stream modelMicroscopic traffic stream model
Microscopic traffic stream model
 
Transportation
TransportationTransportation
Transportation
 
Final power point pedestrian safety presentation se rl
Final power point pedestrian safety presentation se rlFinal power point pedestrian safety presentation se rl
Final power point pedestrian safety presentation se rl
 
Trip generation
Trip generationTrip generation
Trip generation
 
Highway And traffic Engineering
Highway And traffic EngineeringHighway And traffic Engineering
Highway And traffic Engineering
 
Intelligent Transportation System
Intelligent Transportation SystemIntelligent Transportation System
Intelligent Transportation System
 
Fire risk assessment
Fire risk assessmentFire risk assessment
Fire risk assessment
 
HIGHWAY ppt BY SHASHI SHEKHAR DBGI
HIGHWAY  ppt BY SHASHI SHEKHAR DBGIHIGHWAY  ppt BY SHASHI SHEKHAR DBGI
HIGHWAY ppt BY SHASHI SHEKHAR DBGI
 
10 traffic calming
10 traffic calming10 traffic calming
10 traffic calming
 
Volume study (group 5)
Volume study (group  5)Volume study (group  5)
Volume study (group 5)
 
Transportation planning
Transportation planningTransportation planning
Transportation planning
 
Transportation modeling and planning ( The Four-Step Model )
Transportation modeling and planning ( The Four-Step Model )Transportation modeling and planning ( The Four-Step Model )
Transportation modeling and planning ( The Four-Step Model )
 
FHWA roundabout presentation
FHWA roundabout presentationFHWA roundabout presentation
FHWA roundabout presentation
 
TRANSPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRANSPORT SUPPLY AND DEMANDTRANSPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRANSPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
 
Traffic engineering
Traffic engineeringTraffic engineering
Traffic engineering
 
Road Safety Engineering
Road Safety EngineeringRoad Safety Engineering
Road Safety Engineering
 
Crowd Dynamics and Networks
Crowd Dynamics and NetworksCrowd Dynamics and Networks
Crowd Dynamics and Networks
 

En vedette

Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals Project
Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals ProjectModeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals Project
Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals ProjectGiuseppe Vizzari
 
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...Giuseppe Vizzari
 
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow Modelling
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow ModellingDifferential game theory for Traffic Flow Modelling
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow ModellingSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Delivering our transport future now
Delivering our transport future nowDelivering our transport future now
Delivering our transport future nowJumpingJaq
 
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...JumpingJaq
 
Managing models in the age of Open Data
Managing models in the age of Open DataManaging models in the age of Open Data
Managing models in the age of Open DataJumpingJaq
 
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And C...
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability   Lessons And C...Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability   Lessons And C...
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And C...Richard Di Bona
 
Mobility information from mobile phone data
Mobility information from mobile phone dataMobility information from mobile phone data
Mobility information from mobile phone dataLuis Willumsen
 
Floating Car Data and Traffic Management
Floating Car Data and Traffic ManagementFloating Car Data and Traffic Management
Floating Car Data and Traffic ManagementSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Unraveling urban traffic flows
Unraveling urban traffic flowsUnraveling urban traffic flows
Unraveling urban traffic flowsSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)Giuseppe Vizzari
 
Cohesiveness and group dynamics
Cohesiveness and group dynamicsCohesiveness and group dynamics
Cohesiveness and group dynamicsvincent konadu
 
Transport problems in urban india
Transport problems in urban indiaTransport problems in urban india
Transport problems in urban indiaNeha Budhiraja
 
Transport Problems And Solutions!
Transport  Problems And  Solutions!Transport  Problems And  Solutions!
Transport Problems And Solutions!adtastic2001
 
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig Ontruimen
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig OntruimenAanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig Ontruimen
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig OntruimenSerge Hoogendoorn
 
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperforming
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperformingA modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperforming
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperformingJumpingJaq
 
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data Building trip matrices from mobile phone data
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data JumpingJaq
 

En vedette (20)

Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals Project
Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals ProjectModeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals Project
Modeling Pedestrian and Crowd Behaviour: the case of the Crystals Project
 
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...
Adaptive pedestrian behaviour for the preservation of group cohesion: observa...
 
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow Modelling
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow ModellingDifferential game theory for Traffic Flow Modelling
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow Modelling
 
Alan Robinson
Alan RobinsonAlan Robinson
Alan Robinson
 
Delivering our transport future now
Delivering our transport future nowDelivering our transport future now
Delivering our transport future now
 
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...
Beyond Level of Service – Towards a relative measurement of congestion in pla...
 
Managing models in the age of Open Data
Managing models in the age of Open DataManaging models in the age of Open Data
Managing models in the age of Open Data
 
Benjamin Pool
Benjamin PoolBenjamin Pool
Benjamin Pool
 
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And C...
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability   Lessons And C...Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability   Lessons And C...
Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And C...
 
Mobility information from mobile phone data
Mobility information from mobile phone dataMobility information from mobile phone data
Mobility information from mobile phone data
 
Floating Car Data and Traffic Management
Floating Car Data and Traffic ManagementFloating Car Data and Traffic Management
Floating Car Data and Traffic Management
 
Unraveling urban traffic flows
Unraveling urban traffic flowsUnraveling urban traffic flows
Unraveling urban traffic flows
 
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)
Simulation of complex systems: the case of crowds (Phd course - lesson 1/7)
 
Cohesiveness and group dynamics
Cohesiveness and group dynamicsCohesiveness and group dynamics
Cohesiveness and group dynamics
 
Transport problems in urban india
Transport problems in urban indiaTransport problems in urban india
Transport problems in urban india
 
Transport Problems And Solutions!
Transport  Problems And  Solutions!Transport  Problems And  Solutions!
Transport Problems And Solutions!
 
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig Ontruimen
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig OntruimenAanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig Ontruimen
Aanzet onderzoeksprogramma Wetenschappelijke Raad Veilig Ontruimen
 
How can modelling help resolve transport challenges?
How can modelling help resolve transport challenges?How can modelling help resolve transport challenges?
How can modelling help resolve transport challenges?
 
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperforming
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperformingA modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperforming
A modeller’s dilemma: overfitting or underperforming
 
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data Building trip matrices from mobile phone data
Building trip matrices from mobile phone data
 

Similaire à Pedestrian modelling

IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach Us
IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach UsIEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach Us
IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach UsSerge Hoogendoorn
 
TFT 2016 summer meeting Sydney
TFT 2016 summer meeting SydneyTFT 2016 summer meeting Sydney
TFT 2016 summer meeting SydneySerge Hoogendoorn
 
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modelling
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modellingMT-ITS keynote on active mode modelling
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modellingSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...Paris Pavlos Giakoumakis
 
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models 20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models Luuk Brederode
 
MobiCom CHANTS
MobiCom CHANTSMobiCom CHANTS
MobiCom CHANTSgsthakur
 
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdf
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdfMateri 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdf
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdfMahesaRioAditya
 
Modeling business management systems transportation
Modeling business management systems transportationModeling business management systems transportation
Modeling business management systems transportationSherin El-Rashied
 
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale  Pedestrian EvacuationA Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale  Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian EvacuationScientific Review SR
 
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian EvacuationA Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian EvacuationScientific Review
 
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data Streams
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data StreamsMarkovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data Streams
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data StreamsVahid Moosavi
 
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban WorldUrban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban WorldRegional Science Academy
 
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_project
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_projectSimulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_project
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_projectAlexandru Gutu
 

Similaire à Pedestrian modelling (20)

ITS for Crowds
ITS for CrowdsITS for Crowds
ITS for Crowds
 
IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach Us
IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach UsIEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach Us
IEEE-ITSC 2023 Keynote - What Crowds can Teach Us
 
TFT 2016 summer meeting Sydney
TFT 2016 summer meeting SydneyTFT 2016 summer meeting Sydney
TFT 2016 summer meeting Sydney
 
The Physics of Active Modes
The Physics of Active ModesThe Physics of Active Modes
The Physics of Active Modes
 
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modelling
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modellingMT-ITS keynote on active mode modelling
MT-ITS keynote on active mode modelling
 
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...
Study And Modeling of Pedestrian Walk With Regard to The Improvement of Stabi...
 
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models 20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models
20151216 convergence of quasi dynamic assignment models
 
VU talk May 2020
VU talk May 2020VU talk May 2020
VU talk May 2020
 
Optimal combination of operators in Genetic Algorithmsfor VRP problems
Optimal combination of operators in Genetic Algorithmsfor VRP problemsOptimal combination of operators in Genetic Algorithmsfor VRP problems
Optimal combination of operators in Genetic Algorithmsfor VRP problems
 
MobiCom CHANTS
MobiCom CHANTSMobiCom CHANTS
MobiCom CHANTS
 
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdf
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdfMateri 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdf
Materi 10 - Penelitian Pemodelan Komputer.pdf
 
Vtc9252019
Vtc9252019Vtc9252019
Vtc9252019
 
4_serge_ITS for drones.pdf
4_serge_ITS for drones.pdf4_serge_ITS for drones.pdf
4_serge_ITS for drones.pdf
 
Modeling business management systems transportation
Modeling business management systems transportationModeling business management systems transportation
Modeling business management systems transportation
 
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale  Pedestrian EvacuationA Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale  Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
 
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian EvacuationA Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
A Dynamic Cellular Automaton Model for Large-Scale Pedestrian Evacuation
 
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data Streams
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data StreamsMarkovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data Streams
Markovian Modeling of Urban Traffic Flows in Coexistence With Urban Data Streams
 
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban WorldUrban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World
Urban Empires – Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World
 
Traffic simulation and modelling
Traffic simulation and modellingTraffic simulation and modelling
Traffic simulation and modelling
 
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_project
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_projectSimulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_project
Simulation analysis Halmstad University 2013_project
 

Plus de Serge Hoogendoorn

16 juni opening fietspad.pdf
16 juni opening fietspad.pdf16 juni opening fietspad.pdf
16 juni opening fietspad.pdfSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Bataafsch genootschap lezing Hoogendoorn
Bataafsch genootschap lezing HoogendoornBataafsch genootschap lezing Hoogendoorn
Bataafsch genootschap lezing HoogendoornSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinar
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinarShort talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinar
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinarSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO project
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO projectActive modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO project
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO projectSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMS
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMSSmart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMS
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMSSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkracht
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkrachtMasterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkracht
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkrachtSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)Serge Hoogendoorn
 
Ams we make the city resilient
Ams we make the city resilientAms we make the city resilient
Ams we make the city resilientSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Introduction to transport resilience
Introduction to transport resilienceIntroduction to transport resilience
Introduction to transport resilienceSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Future of Traffic Management and ITS
Future of Traffic Management and ITSFuture of Traffic Management and ITS
Future of Traffic Management and ITSSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoek
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoekPraktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoek
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoekSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Active transport workshop hoogendoorn
Active transport workshop hoogendoornActive transport workshop hoogendoorn
Active transport workshop hoogendoornSerge Hoogendoorn
 
Smart and Seamless Urban Mobility
Smart and Seamless Urban MobilitySmart and Seamless Urban Mobility
Smart and Seamless Urban MobilitySerge Hoogendoorn
 
Emergency response behaviour data collection issue
Emergency response behaviour data collection issueEmergency response behaviour data collection issue
Emergency response behaviour data collection issueSerge Hoogendoorn
 
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support Systems
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support SystemsIPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support Systems
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support SystemsSerge Hoogendoorn
 

Plus de Serge Hoogendoorn (18)

Crowd management pitch
Crowd management pitchCrowd management pitch
Crowd management pitch
 
16 juni opening fietspad.pdf
16 juni opening fietspad.pdf16 juni opening fietspad.pdf
16 juni opening fietspad.pdf
 
Bataafsch genootschap lezing Hoogendoorn
Bataafsch genootschap lezing HoogendoornBataafsch genootschap lezing Hoogendoorn
Bataafsch genootschap lezing Hoogendoorn
 
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinar
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinarShort talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinar
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinar
 
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO project
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO projectActive modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO project
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO project
 
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMS
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMSSmart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMS
Smart Urban Mobility - 5 years of AMS
 
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkracht
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkrachtMasterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkracht
Masterclass stresstesten - verkeerskundige aspecten veerkracht
 
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)
Engineering Urban Mobility (in Dutch)
 
Ams we make the city resilient
Ams we make the city resilientAms we make the city resilient
Ams we make the city resilient
 
Introduction to transport resilience
Introduction to transport resilienceIntroduction to transport resilience
Introduction to transport resilience
 
Future of Traffic Management and ITS
Future of Traffic Management and ITSFuture of Traffic Management and ITS
Future of Traffic Management and ITS
 
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoek
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoekPraktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoek
Praktijkrelevantie TRAIL PhD onderzoek
 
RIOH / RWS workshop
RIOH / RWS workshopRIOH / RWS workshop
RIOH / RWS workshop
 
Active transport workshop hoogendoorn
Active transport workshop hoogendoornActive transport workshop hoogendoorn
Active transport workshop hoogendoorn
 
Smart and Seamless Urban Mobility
Smart and Seamless Urban MobilitySmart and Seamless Urban Mobility
Smart and Seamless Urban Mobility
 
Emergency response behaviour data collection issue
Emergency response behaviour data collection issueEmergency response behaviour data collection issue
Emergency response behaviour data collection issue
 
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support Systems
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support SystemsIPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support Systems
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support Systems
 
Ditcm 30 maart
Ditcm 30 maartDitcm 30 maart
Ditcm 30 maart
 

Dernier

GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES Chemical Tests Glycosides
GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES  Chemical Tests GlycosidesGLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES  Chemical Tests Glycosides
GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES Chemical Tests GlycosidesNandakishor Bhaurao Deshmukh
 
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by Petrovic
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by PetrovicServosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by Petrovic
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by PetrovicAditi Jain
 
Biological classification of plants with detail
Biological classification of plants with detailBiological classification of plants with detail
Biological classification of plants with detailhaiderbaloch3
 
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdf
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdfPests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdf
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdfPirithiRaju
 
Organic farming with special reference to vermiculture
Organic farming with special reference to vermicultureOrganic farming with special reference to vermiculture
Organic farming with special reference to vermicultureTakeleZike1
 
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and Functions
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and FunctionsQuarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and Functions
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and FunctionsCharlene Llagas
 
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubai
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In DubaiDubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubai
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubaikojalkojal131
 
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...D. B. S. College Kanpur
 
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentation
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms PresentationHarmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentation
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentationtahreemzahra82
 
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)Columbia Weather Systems
 
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptx
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptxGENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptx
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptxRitchAndruAgustin
 
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptx
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptxThe dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptx
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptxEran Akiva Sinbar
 
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensor
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial BiosensorEnvironmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensor
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensorsonawaneprad
 
CHROMATOGRAPHY PALLAVI RAWAT.pptx
CHROMATOGRAPHY  PALLAVI RAWAT.pptxCHROMATOGRAPHY  PALLAVI RAWAT.pptx
CHROMATOGRAPHY PALLAVI RAWAT.pptxpallavirawat456
 
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024innovationoecd
 
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptx
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptxMicrophone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptx
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptxpriyankatabhane
 
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and Vertical
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and VerticalPROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and Vertical
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and VerticalMAESTRELLAMesa2
 
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical Engineering
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical EngineeringMicroteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical Engineering
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical EngineeringPrajakta Shinde
 
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptx
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptxThermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptx
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptxuniversity
 

Dernier (20)

GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES Chemical Tests Glycosides
GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES  Chemical Tests GlycosidesGLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES  Chemical Tests Glycosides
GLYCOSIDES Classification Of GLYCOSIDES Chemical Tests Glycosides
 
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by Petrovic
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by PetrovicServosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by Petrovic
Servosystem Theory / Cybernetic Theory by Petrovic
 
Biological classification of plants with detail
Biological classification of plants with detailBiological classification of plants with detail
Biological classification of plants with detail
 
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdf
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdfPests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdf
Pests of jatropha_Bionomics_identification_Dr.UPR.pdf
 
Organic farming with special reference to vermiculture
Organic farming with special reference to vermicultureOrganic farming with special reference to vermiculture
Organic farming with special reference to vermiculture
 
AZOTOBACTER AS BIOFERILIZER.PPTX
AZOTOBACTER AS BIOFERILIZER.PPTXAZOTOBACTER AS BIOFERILIZER.PPTX
AZOTOBACTER AS BIOFERILIZER.PPTX
 
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and Functions
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and FunctionsQuarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and Functions
Quarter 4_Grade 8_Digestive System Structure and Functions
 
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubai
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In DubaiDubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubai
Dubai Calls Girl Lisa O525547819 Lexi Call Girls In Dubai
 
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...
Fertilization: Sperm and the egg—collectively called the gametes—fuse togethe...
 
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentation
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms PresentationHarmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentation
Harmful and Useful Microorganisms Presentation
 
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)
User Guide: Pulsar™ Weather Station (Columbia Weather Systems)
 
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptx
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptxGENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptx
GENERAL PHYSICS 2 REFRACTION OF LIGHT SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL GENPHYS2.pptx
 
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptx
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptxThe dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptx
The dark energy paradox leads to a new structure of spacetime.pptx
 
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensor
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial BiosensorEnvironmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensor
Environmental Biotechnology Topic:- Microbial Biosensor
 
CHROMATOGRAPHY PALLAVI RAWAT.pptx
CHROMATOGRAPHY  PALLAVI RAWAT.pptxCHROMATOGRAPHY  PALLAVI RAWAT.pptx
CHROMATOGRAPHY PALLAVI RAWAT.pptx
 
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024
OECD bibliometric indicators: Selected highlights, April 2024
 
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptx
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptxMicrophone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptx
Microphone- characteristics,carbon microphone, dynamic microphone.pptx
 
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and Vertical
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and VerticalPROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and Vertical
PROJECTILE MOTION-Horizontal and Vertical
 
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical Engineering
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical EngineeringMicroteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical Engineering
Microteaching on terms used in filtration .Pharmaceutical Engineering
 
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptx
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptxThermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptx
Thermodynamics ,types of system,formulae ,gibbs free energy .pptx
 

Pedestrian modelling

  • 1. Challenges in Pedestrian Flow Modelling Macroscopic Modeling of Crowds capturing Self-Organisation Serge Hoogendoorn, Winnie Daamen, Femke van Wageningen-Kessels, and others…
  • 2. Societal Urgency Examples showing increasing importance of crowd modeling & management Religious or social gathersings, events, (re-)urbanisaiton, increase use of transit and rail… • Situations where large crowds gather are frequent (sports events, religious events, festivals, etc.); occurrence of ‘spontaneous events’ due to social media • Transit (in particular train) is becoming more important leading to overcrowding of train stations under normal and exceptional situations (e.g. renovation of Utrecht Central Station) • Walking (and cycling) are becoming more important due to (re-)urbanisation (strong reduction car-mobility in Dutch cities) • When things go wrong, societal impacts are huge!
  • 3. How can models be used to support planning, organisation, design, and control? • Testing (new) designs of stations, buildings, stadions, etc. • Testing evacuation plans for buildings • Testing crowd management and control measures and strategies • Training of crowd managers • On-line crowd management systems as part of state estimation and prediction Development of valid models requires good data!!! Courtesy of Prof. H. Mahmassani Engineering challenges Societal urgencies leads to demand for engineering solutions Importance of Theory and Models for Pedestrian and Crowd Dynamics
  • 4. Understanding Pedestrian Flows Field observations, controlled experiments, virtual laboratories Data collection remains a challenge, but many new opportunities arise!
  • 5. Empirical characteristics and relations • Experimental research capacity values: • Strong influence of composition of flow • Importance of geometric factors Fundamental diagram pedestrian flows • Relation between density and flow / speed • Big influence of context! • Example shows regular FD and FD determined from Jamarat Bridge Traffic flow characteristics for pedestrians… Capacity, fundamental diagram, and influence of context
  • 6. Phenomena in pedestrian flow operations Fascinating world of pedestrian flow dynamics! Examples self-organisation • Self-organisation of dynamic lanes in bi-directional flow • Formation of diagonal stripes in crossing flows • Viscous fingering in multi-directional flows Characteristics: • Self-organisation yields moderate reduction of flow efficiency • Chaotic features, e.g. multiple ‘stable’ patterns may result • Limits of self-organisation
  • 7. Limits to efficient self-organisation Overloading causes phase transitions Examples failing self-organisation • When conditions become too crowded efficient self-organisation ‘breaks down’ • Flow performance (effective capacity) decreases substantially, causing cascade effect as demand stays at same level • New phases make occur: start-stop waves, turbulence Network level characteristics • Generalised network fundamental diagram can be sensibly defined for pedestrian flows!
  • 8. The Modelling Challenge Reproducing key phenomena in pedestrian dynamics Towards useful pedestrian flow models… Challenge is to come up with a model that can reproduce or predict pedestrian flow dynamics under a variety of circumstances and conditions Inductive approach: when designing a model, consider the following: • Which are the key phenomena / characteristics you need to represent? • Which theories could be used to represent these phenomena? • Which mathematical constructs are applicable and useful? • Which representation levels are appropriate • How to tackle calibration and validation?
  • 9. Pedestrian modelling approaches Representation and behaviour roles Examples of micro, meso, and macroscopic pedestrian modelling approaches Representation: Behavioural rules: Individual particles Continuum Individual behaviour (predictive) Microscopic simulation models (social forces, CA, NOMAD, etc.) Gas-kinetic models (Hoogendoorn, Helbing) Aggregate behaviour (descriptive) Particle discretisation models (SimPed) Macroscopic continuum models (Hughes, Columbo, Hoogendoorn) Research emphasis on microscopic simulation models and on walking behaviour
  • 10. 1. Introduction Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model Interaction modelling by using differential game theory Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… This memo aims at connecting the microscopic modelling principles underlying the social-forces model to identify a macroscopic flow model capturing interactions amongst pedestrians. To this end, we use the anisotropic version of the social-forces model pre-sented by Helbing to derive equilibrium relations for the speed and the direction, given the desired walking speed and direction, and the speed and direction changes due to interactions. Application of differential game theory: • Pedestrians minimise predicted walking cost, due to straying from intended path, being too close to others / obstacles and effort, yielding ai(t): Level of anisotropy reflected by this parameter 2. Microscopic foundations We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: (1) ~ai = ~v0 i ~vi ⌧i Ai X j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) • Simplified model is similar to Social Forces model of Helbing Face validity? • Model results in reasonable fundamental diagrams • What about self-organisation? 1 + cos $ij 2 ◆ where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, ~vi that ~ai will be introduced later. ~xi In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction for which this occurs is given by: (2) ~vi = ~v0 i ⌧iAi X j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) ~v0 i 1 + cos $ij 2 ◆ ~nij ~xj Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x)
  • 11. Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model Interaction modelling by using differential game theory Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… Example shows lane formation process for homogeneous groups... NOMAD model (like social forces model) captures lane formation • Heterogeneity yields less efficient lane formation (freezing by heating)
  • 12. Example: NOMAD Game Theoretical Model Interaction modelling by using differential game theory Or: Pedestrian Economicus as main theoretical assumption… Is NOMAD able to reproduce breakdown in case of oversaturation? • Testing NOMAD / Social Forces model using different demand patterns to investigate if and under which conditions breakdown occurs • Large impact of population heterogeneity (‘freezing by heating’) + reaction time Heterogeneity yields less efficient lane formation (freezing by heating) *) Work by Xiaoxia Yang, Winnie Daamen, Serge Paul Hoogendoorn, Yao Chen, Hairong Dong •M ic ro s c o p ic m o de l s h ave b e e n re l a t i v e l y s uc c e s s f u l , a l t h o u g h s e ve r a l is s ue s a re s t i l l t o be t ac k l e d • Ca l i b ra t i o n a n d v a l i d a t i o n a re c r i t ic a l i s s ue s t o t a c k le • I n c l us io n o f c u l t u ra l d i f fe re n c e s, i m p ac t s o f wa l k i ng p u r p o s e •R o u te c h o ic e i n ge ne r a l re q u i re s m o re at te n t io n !
  • 13. 60 40 20 48 28 44 48 0 20 40 60 80 x1-axis (m) 0 x2-axis (m) 16 20 24 28 28 28 32 32 32 36 40 40 44 48 52 52 52 56 56 60 64 72 Dynamic programming • NOMAD route choice: • Let W(t,x) denote minimum expected cost (travel time) from (t,x) to destination(s) • W(t,x) satisfies HJB equation: − ∂W ∂t = L(t, ! x, ! v0 )+ ! vi 0 = !γ ! v0∇W + 0 ⋅V0 σ 2 2 ΔW where !γ 0 = −∇W/ ||∇W || !γ 0 • Optimal direction perpendicular to iso-cost curves • Efficient numerical solution approaches available… Completing the Model Route choice modelling by Stochastic Optimal Control Optimal routing in continuous time and space…
  • 14. Continuum modelling Dynamic assignment in continuous time and space Macroscopic traffic flow modelling… Multi-class macroscopic model of Hoogendoorn and Bovy (2004) • Kinematic wave model for pedestrian flow for each destination d ∂ρd ∂t +∇⋅ ! qd = ! qd = r − s with d !γ !γ d ⋅ρd ⋅V(ρ1,...,ρD ) d ⋅V(ρ1,...,ρD ) • Here V is the (multi-class) equilibrium speed; the optimal direction: !γ d (t, ! x) = − ∇Wd (t, ! x) ||∇Wd (t, ! x) || • Stems from minimum cost Wd(t,x) for each (set of) destination(s) d • Is this a reasonable model? • No, since there is only pre-determined (global) route choice, the model will have unrealistic features
  • 15. Ω Continuum modelling Dynamic assignment in continuous time and space Macroscopic traffic flow modelling… Fig. 1. Considered walking area ⌦ Fig. 2. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. Solution? Include a term describing local route / direction choice…
  • 16. social-forces model to identify a macroscopic flow model capturing interactions amongst pedestrians. To this end, we 2. use Microscopic the anisotropic foundations version of the social-forces model pre-sented We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of Continuum modelling - part 2 Computationally efficient modelling Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… by Helbing to derive equilibrium relations for the speed and the direction, given pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of X  # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) ◆ the desired walking ~v0 i ~speed vi and direction, and the speed and direction changes due to interactions. Rij Bi pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: ⌧i Ai j exp 2. Microscopic foundations (1) ~ai = 1 + cos $ij 2 where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will be introduced later. We start with the anisotropic model of Helbing that describes the acceleration of • NOMAD / Social-forces model as starting point: pedestrian i as influence by opponents j: In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction (1) ~ai = ~v0 i ~vi ⌧i Ai X for which this occurs is given by: j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) X  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) • Equilibrium relation stemming from model (ai = 0): 1 + cos $ij 2 ◆ 1 + cos $ij ◆ where (2) Rij denotes ~vi = ~v0 the ⌧distance iAi exp between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing from pedestrian i to i j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction 2 of i and the postion j of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will be Let introduced us now later. make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) denote the density, to be interpreted as the probability that a pedestrian is present on location ~x at time instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: (3) ~v = ~v0(~x) ⌧A In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction • Interpret density as the ‘probability’ of a pedestrian being present, which gives a for macroscopic which this occurs equilibrium is given relation by: (expected velocity), which equals: ZZ (2) ~vi = ~v0 ✓ ||~y ~x|| i ⌧iAi X j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) 1 + cos $ij ◆ ~y ~x ||~y ~x|| 2 ◆ exp B ◆✓ # + (1 #) 1 + cos $xy(~v) 2 ⇢(t, ~y)d~y Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) ~y2⌦(~x) denote Here, ⌦(~the x) density, denotes to the be area interpreted around the as considered the probability point that ~x for a which pedestrian we determine is present the on location interactions. ~x at Note time that: instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: ((3) 4) cos $xy(~v) = • Combine with conservation of pedestrian equation yields complete model, but numerical integration is computationally very intensive ZZ ~v ||~v|| · ~y ~x ||~y ~x|| ✓ ◆✓ ◆ (1) ~ai = ~v0 i ~vi ⌧i Ai X j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) 1 + cos $ij 2 ◆ where Rij denotes the distance between pedestrians i and j, ~nij the unit vector pointing from pedestrian i to j; $ij denotes the angle between the direction of i and the postion of j; ~vi denotes the velocity. The other terms are all parameters of the model, that will be introduced later. In assuming equilibrium conditions, we generally have ~ai = 0. The speed / direction for which this occurs is given by: (2) ~vi = ~v0 i ⌧iAi X j exp  Rij Bi # · ~nij · ✓ #i + (1 #i) 1 + cos $ij 2 ◆ Let us now make the transition to macroscopic interaction modelling. Let ⇢(t, ~x) denote the density, to be interpreted as the probability that a pedestrian is present on location ~x at time instant t. Let us assume that all parameters are the same for all pedestrian in the flow, e.g. ⌧i = ⌧ . We then get: (3) ZZ ~v = ~v0(~x) ⌧A ~y2⌦(~x) exp ✓ ||~y ~x|| B ◆✓ # + (1 #) 1 + cos $xy(~v) 2 ◆ ~y ~x ||~y ~x|| ⇢(t, ~y)d~y Here, ⌦(~x) denotes the area around the considered point ~x for which we determine the interactions. Note that:
  • 17. Continuum modelling - part 2 Computationally efficient modelling Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… SERGE P. HOOGENDOORN FROM MICROSCOPIC TO MACROSCOPIC INTERACTION MODELING Furthermore, we see that for ~↵, we find: From this expression, we can find both the equilibrium speed and the equilibrium direc-tion, FROM MICROSCOPIC TO MACROSCOPIC INTERACTION MODELING Furthermore, we see that for ~↵, we find: which in turn can be used in the macroscopic model. We can think of approximating this expression, by using the following linear approx-imation properties • of Taylor the (10) series density approximation: around ~x: ~v ~↵(~v) = ↵~↵(~· v) ~v = ↵0 0 · expressions (14) and ⇢((t, 15) ~y) describing = ⇢(t, ~x) + the (~y equilibrium − ~x) · r⇢(||~t, v|| ~x) + O(||~||~v|| y − ~x||2) (Can we determine this directly from the integrals?) Using that we determine yields the this direction expression a From closed-this Eq. does form directly into (not 6), 4.1. expression Eq. with depend Analysis from (~v 3) = yields: for on ~e the of ↵the V 0, model integrals?) we which equilibrium can properties derive: velocity , which is From Eq. given (6), by the with equilibrium ~v = ~e · V speed we can and · derive: direction: the density (itself 11) has no ~v e↵= ect, ~v0(~x) and − that ~↵(~v)⇢(only V t, = ~x) ||~the v0 − − $(~#v)t, ~x) 0 · r⇢(r⇢|| − ↵0⇢ influence the and direction. We will now discuss some Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. 290 Let us first take a look at expressions (14) and (15) describing V = ||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| − ↵0⇢ speed and direction. Notice first that the direction does not depend implies that the magnitude of the density itself has no e↵ect, gradient of the density does influence the direction. We will other properties, first by considering a homogeneous flow (r⇢ 295 ↵(~v) and $(~v) defined respectively by: considering a homogeneous flow (r⇢ = ~0), and then (12) ~e = ~↵(~v) = ⌧A ZZ ($ = 1) and an anisotropic flow ($ = 0). ~y2⌦(~x) exp ✓ −||~y − ~x|| ~v0 − #0 · r⇢ V + ↵0⇢ ~v0 B − #0 · r⇢ V + ↵0⇢ ◆✓ = + (1 − ) ~v0 − #0 · r⇢ ||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| 1 + cos 'xy(~v) ~v0 − #0 · r⇢ 2 ||~v0 − #0 · r⇢|| ◆ ~y − ~x ||~y − ~x|| d~y ~e = = Note that the direction does not depend on ↵0, which implies that the magnitude the density itself has no e↵ect on the direction, while the gradient of the density influence the direction. α =πτ AB2 (1−λ ) and β= 2πτ AB3(1+λ ) 0 0 ||~v0|| − 0 − • with: • Check behaviour of model by looking at isotropic flow ( ) and homogeneous flow conditions ( ) • Multi-class generalisation + Godunov scheme numerical approximation conditions that the direction does not depend on ↵0, which implies that the magnitude density $(~v) itself = ⌧A has no e↵ect on the direction, while the gradient of the density influence the direction. ZZ by considering an isotropic flow ($ = 1) and an anisotropic flow 4.1.1. Homogeneous flow conditions homogeneous conditions, i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. (14) simplifies 2.1. Homogeneous flow conditions. Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, ~y2⌦(~x) i.e. r⇢ = ~0, Eq. (11) simplifies to exp ✓ −||~y − ~x|| B ◆✓ + (1 − ) 1 + cos 'xy(~v) 2 ◆ ||~y − ~x||d~y To investigate the behaviour of these integrals, we have numerically approximated Homogeneous flow conditions. Note that in case of homogeneous conditions, v0|| − ↵0⇢ = V 0 − ↵0⇢ (16) ! v = ! e ⋅V
  • 18. ~qd = ~#d(⇢1, ..., ⇢D, r⇢1, ..., r⇢D) · ⇢d · U(⇢1, ..., ⇢D) 5.1. Introducing the base model and the scenarios Our base model is defined by using a simple linear speed-density relation U(⇢) = v0 ·(1⇢/⇢jam) = 1.34·(1We will use ! = ⌘ = 1 for = d and ! = ⌘ = 4 otherwise, meaning that the impact of the densities of groups are substantially higher. Finally, in the base model we will only consider the impact of the crowdedness i.e. ↵d = 0. To test the base model, and the di↵erent variants on it, we will use three scenarios: 1. Unidirectional flow scenario, mostly used to show flow dispersion compared to the example presented in 3.2. In this scenario, pedestrians enter on the left side of the forty by forty meter area and walk towards 2. Continuum modelling - part 2 Computationally efficient modelling Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… Crossing flow scenario, where the first group of pedestrians is generated on the left, and walks to the right, the second group is generated at the bottom of the area, and moves up. 3. Bi-directional flow scenario, where two groups of pedestrians are generated at respectively the left and side of the forty by forty meter area. In all scenarios, pedestrians are generated on the edges of the area between -5 and 5. 5.2. Impact of local route choice of flow dispersion Let us first revisit the example presented in section 3.2, shown in Fig. 1. The example considered a uni-directional pedestrian flow with fixed (global) route choice. The resulting flow operations showed no lateral dispersion which appears not realistic since it caused big di↵erences in speeds and travel times for pedestrians spatially very close. Including the local choice term 'd causes dispersion in a lateral sense: since pedestrians avoid high density densities will disperse and smooth over the area, see Fig. 3. The resulting flow conditions appear much more that the situation that occurred in case the local route choice model was not included. • Uni-directional flow situation • Picture shows differences between situation without and with local route choice for two time instances • Model introduces ‘lateral diffusion’ since pedestrians will look for lower density areas actively • Diffusion can be controlled by choosing parameters differently • Model shows plausible behaviour Ω y y′ Fig. 1. Considered walking area ⌦ Fig. 2. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. To remedy these issues, in this paper we put forward a dynamic route choice model, that takes care of the the global route choice behaviour is determined pre-trip and does not include the impact of changing flow conditions that may result in additional costs. To this end, we introduce a local route choice component that reflects additional local cost 'd (e.g. extra delays, discomfort) caused by the prevailing flow conditions. We assume that these dependent on the (spatial changes in the) class-specific densities. In the remainder, we will assume that the local route cost function 'd can be expressed as a function of the densities and density gradients. By di↵erentiating between the classes, we can distinguish between local costs incurred by interacting with pedestrians in the same class (walking into the same direction), and between interactions. As a result, we have for the flow vector the following expression: Fig. 3. Numerical experiment showing the impact of only considering global route choice on flow conditions. For the simulations, we linear fundamental diagram U(⇢) = v0 ↵0⇢. The simulations where performed using a newly developed Godunov scheme for two dimensional
  • 19. Continuum modelling - part 2 Computationally efficient modelling Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… • Simulation results also show formation of diagonal stripes… • Patterns which are formed depend on parameters of models • In particular, non-equal impact of own class and other classes on diversion behaviour appears important
  • 20. demand is very small. The reason is that we considered the average outflow for the entire the start-up period where (0.1 P/m/the s), no outflow self-organised is patterns still zero. occur: the resulting densities are suciently low implying that there Continuum modelling room to simply pass trough the other flow without the need to form structures to increase ecient interaction. The figure shows clearly For higher how demands, self-- we organisation part see self-organised 2 and patterns. the failing thereof impacts Until a demand of say 0.18 P/m/the s, we efficiency see diagonal moment Computationally that the demand formation. efficient exceeds However, modelling 0.18 if the P/demand m/s, becomes the outflow too large, / the demand neat self-organisation ratio decreases seen at lower strongly demand seems to fail. We still see forms of self-organisation, where pedestrians walking into a certain direction Also note that between in homogeneous 0.22 P/m/groups s ad that 0.38 move as P/a m/block s, though the demand the other classes. - outflow If the demand relation increases appears further, Connecting microscopic stagnates to macroscopic completely and a full models… still some self-organised patterns occur that gridlock sometimes results. leads to (temporary) reasonable 0.38 P/m/s onward, the outflow completely stagnates and a grid-lock situation occurs. • Whether self-organisation occurs depends on demand level • Low demand levels, no self-organisation • Self-organisation fails for high demands and results in complete grid-lock (no outflow) • Macroscopic model appears able to qualitatively reproduce crowd characteristics! Demand = 0.15 P/m/s Demand = 0.10 P/m/s 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Demand = 0.18 P/m/s Demand = 0.25 P/m/s 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Fig. 6. Density contour plot (left) and scaled outflow rate (right). 0 demand outflow / demand left to right down to up Failing self-organisation Grid-lock Fig. 7. Density contour plot (left) and scaled outflow rate (right).
  • 21. Continuum modelling - part 2 Computationally efficient modelling Connecting microscopic to macroscopic models… • Model seems to reproduce self-organised patterns (e.g. example below shows lane formation for bi-directional flows)
  • 22. Applications? Use of macroscopic flow model in optimisation • Work presented at TRB 2013 proposes optimisation technique to minimise evacuation times • Bi-level approach combining optimal routing (HJB equation) and continuum flow model (presented here) • Preliminary results are very promising No redistribution of 5 queues (initial iteration) x−axis (m) 50 45 40 35 30 y−axis (m) Densities at t = 25.1 s 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 50 45 40 35 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 4.5 4.5 4 3.5 4 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 x−axis (m) y−axis (m) Densities at t = 125.1 s 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 45 50 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 x−axis (m) y−axis (m) Densities at t = 125.1 s 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 0 Distribution of queues considering reduced speeds
  • 23. Want to know more? Stay in touch! • Validation and calibration is a major challenge: need methodologies, data and information extraction methods • Specialised models may be needed e.g. for train stations, for evacuations and for areas where pedestrians interact with vehicles • Differences between cultures, genders, ages, climates should be considered • Route choice models are even less developed than flow models and therefore also need more attention • Operations are strongly context dependent as so should the models! No ‘one size fits all’! • Professionals should also be considered in our efforts and be educated n how to use our tools and models and what they can expect from them and what not