Farmville Farmers Outnumber Real Farmers --- WHY? Angry Birds passes one billion download –- WHY? We don’t know! We don’t know why something go viral. We cannot prescribe a formula. BUT – We can be sure similar unexpected events will happen again … and … again … and … again. We live in a Hyper-Connected world. Hyper-Connectivity gives rise to an intelligence of it own where 2 + 2 may be 22! Hyper-Connectivity leads to unexpected events which changes our world view ... alters our business strategy ... alters our technology adoption cycle. Do traditional technology adoption model like "Technology Adoption Lifecycle" formulated by Everett Rogers & Geoffrey Moore or the "Hype-Cycle" formulated by Gartner reflect the current reality? In Gartner’s "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" - 2011: only 1 of the 7 technologies mentioned in "climbing the slope of enlightenment" ever went through the "peak of inflated expectation". 2007 to 2011: only 3 of the 15 technologies ever mentioned in "climbing the slope of enlightenment" ever went through the "peak of inflated expectation". Almost two-third of them originated in the consumer space. Success of Technologies are becoming unexpected and are driven my individual users. You notice it only when it succeeds. You are suddenly hit by the success like a "Stealth Bomber". Like a Stealth Bomber it hit you without notice! And you will find that your customers have already adopted the technology. But why should you care? You should care because in the Hyper-connected world … can you afford NOT to connect with you customer? As the world around us have changed ... so has the use of Information Technology. Over the years IT has gone through 3 phases: Phase I: Was about automating manual processes like payroll & accounting Phase II: Was about Information Systems … about providing the right information for decision making Phase III: Was about Information Technology being part of every Product and Service In Phase II - Business Strategy lead to Enterprise Architecture and Choice of Technology was secondary to EA. In Phase III - Technology Adoption around us modifies our Business Strategy! Question to all Enterprise Architect --- Are you ready for this change?

1. Udayan Banerjee
http://setandbma.wordpress.com/

2. Farmville Farmers Outnumber Real Farmers ---
WHY?

3. Angry Birds passes one billion download –-
WHY?

4. On 21st November, 2011, Kolaveri became the ‘most
searched video’ on YouTube ---
WHY?

5. After two and a half year of near hibernation our Yammer
usage suddenly took off without any internal promotion ---
WHY?

6. Answer – We don’t know!
We don’t know why something go viral
We cannot predict it
We cannot prescribe a formula
BUT –
We can be sure similar unexpected events will
happen again … and … again … and … again

7. Till the discovery of Black Swan in Australia in the 18th century everybody
thought swans are only white
Black Swan = Expect the Unexpected

8. Hyper-Connected World
Social Networking
Wireless Communication
Search
Hyperlinking
Personal Computing
Wired Communication

9. We live in a Hyper-Connected world
And
Hyper-connectivity leads to …

10. By the age of 5 our brain size reaches about 80% for the
adult size --- What happens after that?
We develop interconnections among the brain cells –
the learning, the intelligence is in the interconnection

11. In last 32,000 years our brain size has decreased --- Does it
make us less intelligent?
Our intelligence is in the interconnectivity –
Inside the brain, derived from social interaction

12. Hyper-Connectivity
Gives rise to an intelligence of it own
Where 2 + 2 may be 22!

13. Is there a predefined architecture?
Is there a flight plan?
Is there a search algorithm?

14. Hyper-Connectivity …
… leads to unexpected event …
… which changes our world view …
… which alters our business strategy …
… which alters our technology adoption cycle …

15. Peak of Inflated
Expectation
Gartner Hype Cycle and
Technology Adoption Lifecycle
Plotted together
Technology
Trigger Slope of
Enlightenment
Expectation
Plateau of
Productivity
Trough of
Disillusionment Do they work any more? Time
Adoption Rate
Everett Rogers & Geoffrey Moore

16. Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - 2011

17. Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - 2011
2011 2011 2007
2010 2010
Appeared directly in
2010 First appeared in
“Slope of Enlightenment”
“Trough of Disillusionment”

18. Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies – 2007-11
Technology Climbing the slope First Appeared in
Enterprise Instant Messaging
2007 “Sliding through the trough” on 2006
Basic Web Services 2008 Appeared directly
SOA
2008 “Sliding through the trough” on 2004
Tablet PC 2008 2003 or earlier
Corporate Blogging
2009 “Sliding through the trough” on 2008
Electronic Paper 2009 2003 or earlier
Wikis 2009 2004
Biometric Authentication Methods
2010 Appeared directly
Interactive TV
2010 “Sliding through the trough” on 2010
Internet Micropayment Systems
2010 Appeared directly
Predictive Analytics 2010 Appeared directly
Consumerization 2011 Appeared directly
Idea Management 2011 “Sliding through the trough” on 2007
Mobile Application Stores 2011 “Sliding through the trough” on 2010
QR/Color Code 2011 Appeared directly

19. Success of Technologies are becoming
unexpected and are driven my individual users
You notice it only when it succeeds
You are suddenly hit by the success like a …

20. Like a Stealth Bomber it
hit you without notice!
… and …

21. Consumers may adopt
them first!
… but why should you care?

22. In the Hyper-connected world …
… can you afford NOT to connect with your customer?

23. As the world around us have changed
So has the use of Information Technology

24. Phase I
Was about automating manual
processes like payroll & accounting
Phase II
Was about Information Systems …
about providing the right information
for decision making

25. Business
Strategy
Enterprise
Architecture
Technology
In Phase II
Technology was
Secondary

26. What about Phase III?
Information Technology is now part of every
Product and Service

27. TESCO’s virtual supermarket in a subway station
Triggered by the proliferation of
smartphones that can read QR Codes

28. In Phase III
Business
Strategy Technology adoption by the customer
can dictate our business strategy
Enterprise Technology
Architecture Adoption
Technology Business
Strategy
Enterprise
In Phase III Architecture
Technology may
become primary

29. Question to all Enterprise Architect
Are you ready for this change?