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Buy, Sell, Hold? The Market for Patents and What It Can Tell Us

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Richardson Oliver Insights produces an annual report on the patent market. Their database covers more than 150k patent assets across more than 700k deals. Kent will be presenting on the secondary patent market for patents, how big is it, who is buying, who is selling, what is pricing and what are the changes of winning with bought patents.

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Buy, Sell, Hold? The Market for Patents and What It Can Tell Us

  1. 1. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Buy, Sell, Hold? The Market for Patents and What It Can Tell Us Kent Richardson, CEO March 13, 2019 (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 1
  2. 2. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Look back Market dynamics Predictions Agenda (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 2
  3. 3. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Kent Richardson CEO of Richardson Oliver Insights More than $100M in patent purchases/sales Proprietary database with over 150,000 patent assets for sale Recognized as top worldwide IP strategists for 10+ years (IAM300) Advisor and analyst for defensive strategies against Intellectual Ventures and large corporate patent asserters Patent attorney for 25 years. General counsel of public company. Formerly Rambus, Numerical Technologies, Sezmi, Thinkfire, and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati Email: kent@roipatents.com Brief Introduction (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 3
  4. 4. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS What’s the Secondary Patent Market? Seller Buyer (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 4
  5. 5. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS What Is in a Brokered Patent Package? °Typical package °List of patents for sale, applicable market, infringement analysis (claim chart), background on the seller °Asking price, bid dates, special circumstances (license back, specific encumbrances) °Example package from Patent Profit (Will Plut) °Confluence Patent Portfolio °Single family (15 US Patents and 7 open applications) relating to social network data aggregation. 2006 priority date °Received July 2013. Sold October 2014 °Asking prices: “7 figures” °Multiple claim charts presented for ° Apple, Google, Facebook °Purchased by an operating company °Fingerprint Cards AB (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 5
  6. 6. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS 2011 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 #ofAssets Portfolio Growth by Priority Year Organic Portfolio Projected Organic Portfolio 2016 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 #Assets Total Portfolio by Priority Year Acquired Portfolio Organic Portfolio LinkedIn – What You Can Do Over Four Years For more information on the LinkedIn patent strategy, see “How and Why LinkedIn Learned to Love Patents.” Harrington et. al. IAM Magazine Issue 82 (March 2017), available for download here (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 6
  7. 7. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Where Is the Patent Market Today? (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 7
  8. 8. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Nine Years Make a Difference 2010 2019 Sources Transactions Pricing Capabilities Private ROI IAM Market Bloomberg Only WSJ published deals Quarterly public data Skewed and opaque Intellectual Ventures plus select companies 7 Years of ROI annual reports Private analysis of >$500M closed deals Multiple ways to buy SMEs buying (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 8
  9. 9. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Look back Market dynamics Predictions Agenda (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 9
  10. 10. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Deal Flow Sellers Buyers Direct Sales >1000 deals per year hit the market (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 10
  11. 11. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS ROI Patent Market Report $XB in spending 8000 offerings 150K patent assets 7th annual report “ROI’s brokered patent market report continues to be one of the year’s most read and anticipated pieces amongst IAM’s subscriber base of global IP executives and professionals” - Joff Wild, Editor in Chief of IAM 2018 report in a nutshell “The patent market has fully stabilized and prices are rational,” said no one ever. The ROI Patent Market Report (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 11
  12. 12. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Cumulative sum of asking prices ($B) - brokered and private market Cum Sum Asking Price (Entire Market) Cum Sum Total Asking Price (Sold) Predicted Cum Sum Asking Price (Entire Market) Predicted Cum Sum Total Asking Price (Sold) $17B in Patents Offered on the Secondary Market Unsold Sold Billions of dollars of unsold patents on the market. Litigation risks continue to increase $B (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 12
  13. 13. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS What’s the Asking Price of a Patent? $176,000 30% drop from 2017but it’s complicated (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 13
  14. 14. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS More assets Lower per asset price Where Did the 2018 Price Drop Originate? -56% single asset deals (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 14
  15. 15. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Caveats – Sure There Are a Few (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 15
  16. 16. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Asking Prices Reported Quarterly Source: Google Makes First Sale in U.S. Brokered Patent Market. (2019). Bnanews.bna.com.2019, from https://bnanews.bna.com/ip- law/google-makes-first-sale-in-us-brokered-patent-market (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 16
  17. 17. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Asking Prices Are Stabilizing’ish $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $K Listing Year Average Asking Prices ($K) USMean AssetMean (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 17
  18. 18. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS What’s Hot in the Patent Market Today (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 18
  19. 19. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Alice impacted Versus not Alice impacted What is targeted in Alice impacted packages? (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 19
  20. 20. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% <1 <2 <3 <4 <5 Cummulative%sold Time from package listing date to sale date (years) 2014 2015 2016 Predicted 2017 Sales Rates Dropping or Shifting? (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 20
  21. 21. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Some Brokers Are More Effective Than Others Better (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 21
  22. 22. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Sequencing Diligence is Critical (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 22
  23. 23. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Distribution of Sellers 66% sellers are corporations time to join? (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 23
  24. 24. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Distribution of Buyers 42% buyers are NPEs time to join anybody?! (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 24
  25. 25. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Sellers Aaron Emigh Alcatel Lucent Allied Security Trust (AST) ATT Bell & Howell, LLC Clifford Sweatte Concert Technology Foxsemicon Integrated Technology, Inc. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPe) Hewlett Packard Inc (HP inc) IBM Intel Corporation Intellectual Ventures IP Cube Partners (ICP) Co., Ltd KT Corporation Mirai Ventures LLC MITRE Corporation Nokia Communications Company Panasonic Corporation Pendrell Technologies Seiko Epson Corporation Sony Corporation Xerox Buyers Akoloutheo, Llc Allied Security Trust (AST) Blackbird Tech Llc Brunoco, Inc. Cria Inc. Didi (Hk) Science And Technology Limited Etsy Inc. Fiver, Llc Fluence Automation Llc Google Inc. Innobrilliance, Llc Insight Interfaces Llc Intellectual Ventures Jlp United States Patent Solutions, Llc Knapp Investment Company Nokia Communications Company Open Invention Network, Llc Pathunt Ip Management Limited Prosper Technology, Llc Provenance Red Dragon Innovations, Llc RPX Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Scenera Technologies, Llc Servicenow, Inc. Spectrum Patents, Inc. Uber Technologies, Inc. Uniloc Luxembourg S.A. Wi-Fi One, Llc WSOU Investments LLC Multiple Sellers and Buyers 2017 - 2018 (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 25
  26. 26. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Litigation Analysis: You Can Model Your Risk Litigations (2012-2018 market year packages) Inter partes reviews (2014-2018 market year packages) Package Type Before listing date After listing date Ever Before listing date After listing date Ever Sold packages 6.6% 16.3% 21.1% 0.8% 6.0% 6.8% Unsold packages 3.9% 3.9% 7.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% All packages 4.6% 7.0% 10.4% 0.5% 2.2% 2.7% 16.3% of sold packages are litigated – time to update models? 6% of sold packages are IPRed after listing – very few before they are listed Both sold and unsold packages are litigated post listing Defensive aggregator value may be greater than anticipated (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 26
  27. 27. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS What Happens when You Litigate Bought Patents? °Operating companies are successful °33% self-generated vs. °23% bought °Conclusion: bought patents work, and factor the spread into your models Source: “Patent Purchases and Litigation Outcomes.” Lemley et. al. 2016 Patently-O Patent L.J. 15 (December 2016) (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 27
  28. 28. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Look back Market dynamics Predictions Agenda (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 28
  29. 29. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Where Is the Market Going? (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 29
  30. 30. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Trends and Predictions More international sales Prices – stabilize’ish Sales rates – remain low Faster and simpler transactions expand market NPEs continue to buy – fewer buyers drive this part of the market More and varied patent sales (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 30
  31. 31. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Challenges in Analyzing °Data °Data cleaning °Clean data °Data clean yet °Assignees… °Pricing °Sales information °Correlation, causation °Machine learning opportunities Analysis challenges and Presenting (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 31
  32. 32. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Presenting – Clarify and Captivate Dark Horse Analytics an example of pushing analytics and visualizations https://www.darkhorseanalytics.com/ (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 32
  33. 33. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS Learning More – Further Resources °Richardson Oliver Insights °New data-business, increasing patent market transparency °Home page has updated market data °roipatents.com °Hosts reports and analysis on the market °“The 2018 Brokered Patent Market” Richardson et. al. IAM Magazine (January 2019) °“An Empirical Look at the ‘Brokered’ Market for Patents.” Love et. al. SSRN (October 2017) °“Patent Purchases and Litigation Outcomes.” Lemley et. al. 2016 Patently-O Patent L.J. 15 (December 2016) °roipatents.com/publications/ (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 33
  34. 34. PATENT MARKET DATA ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS (C) 2019 Richardson Oliver Insights LLC 34

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