1. Expect gold to move up this spring: Microsec
Commerze
Published on Thu, Apr 01, 2010 at 17:42 | Updated at Thu, Apr 01, 2010 at 18:26 | Source : CNBC-TV18
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In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, Shamik Bhose, Microsec Commerze
Ltd, speaks about various commodities and gives his outlook going forward.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Shamik Bhose
on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: A quick trading strategy on crude and where do you see it headed from here post the
USD 83 per barrel mark?
A: I think considering the resistance for quite a few months, six-eight months, has been around
USD 83-84 per barrel, any kind of move or daily close above USD 83 per barrel sets up a real
break-out, a technical break-out above USD 84 per barrel. The possibility fear are quite sharp,
USD 90 per barrel first and then USD 94 per barrel.
This move by crude oil is quite strange because the fundamentals are not in favour of crude oil
going up; there are a lot of stocks, dollar is not weak. So if crude oil is defined by the dollar
strength is defined by fundamental stock build up and going up, then there is something going on
here which we do not know, most probably geo-political risk. So a close above USD 84 per barrel
will be very-very good for crude, but bad for us because it will be very-very inflationary kind of a
move.
Q: What about gold because it has come off its earlier highs though and there has been a
bit of a bargain hunting ahead of the Easter, what is the strategy there?
A: Gold has been ranged here. It has more or less been on a tight range between USD 1085 per
ounce and about USD 1127 per ounce. I think you have seen most of the moves around USD
1115 to 1100 per ounce. Unless the technical support and the resistance area at USD 1085 per
ounce or above USD 1127 per ounce break, you will not see a sharp move. So you will see
ranged move instead, but if crude oil gets stronger and if the dollar does not get stronger, these
two things will be very-very favourable for gold to move up and in an inflationary environment you
will see a lot of gold buying. I expect gold to move up this spring because silver is moving up
supported by gold and copper. I think if crude can move up to USD 90 per barrel, then gold will
move up because people will see inflation coming back.

2. Crude may test $90/bbl in short-term: Microsec
Commerze
Published on Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 13:22 | Updated at Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 16:12 | Source : CNBC-
TV18
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The Dollar Index fell below the 80-mark and consequently the Reuters CRB Index
also snapped six consecutive days of closing lower and actually gained 1%.
Shamik Bose of Microsec Commerze feels crude warrants a buy at current levels.
“The short-term target would be USD 83-84 per barrel.”
However, Bose says, a close above USD 84 per barrel might result in crude testing levels of USD
90 per barrel.
In case of gold, he sees congregation of short-term moving averages between USD 1,105-1,120
per ounce. “A close above these levels sets up USD 1,145 per ounce and USD 1,160 per ounce
in the short-term.”
For complete interview, watch video.
Gold has support at $1127-1118/oz: Microsec
Commerze
Published on Mon, Mar 08, 2010 at 17:56 | Updated at Tue, Mar 09, 2010 at 12:44 | Source : CNBC-
TV18
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In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, Shamik Bhose, Advisor Commodity
Markets, Microsec Commerze Ltd, speaks about various commodities and gives
his outlook going forward.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Shamik Bhose
on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: On the back of the kind of weakness that the dollar has seen the crude has spiked up a
whole lot, so what would your levels be on crude right now and what would your strategy
be from hereon?

3. A: I think crude seems to be on the second part of the range between USD 76- 84 per barrel and
it has been on these two ranges for a long time, USD 60-74 per barrel and USD 75-84 per barrel.
So we have been longish crude over here because the dollar has been slightly weak. We are
targeting USD 84 per barrel. If it fails to close above USD 84 we will sell it. But the fundamentals
for crude are a little weak because the inventory for crude and demand growth is not very good.
All of this suggests a bearish over tone, but the technical situation is very good on the chart. As
long as dollar continues to remain rangebound, crude has gone up surprisingly.
Q: Do you have a strategy on precious metal gold as well?
A: We were looking at a very tight range in the recent past. Looking at the close moving average,
we are looking at support at USD 1127 per ounce and at USD 1118 per ounce and targeting a
very tight range of USD 1142 per ounce on a day and perhaps USD 1162 per ounce on the week,
looking at dollar weakness and dollar index and dollar-euro moving around in this range.
Q: Considering the way the entire base metal pack has been fluctuating so much, do you
have any particular way you would like to trade copper now?
A: We were caught on that one. We thought base metals will correct here because if the
fundamentals were poor, but as you have seen copper has risen quite a bit in the recent past and
we have been friendly towards nickel technically and a little bearish on lead. Base metals have
been moving around quite a bit. They are volatile. The fundamentals are not in favour because
inventories are quite large as China has been tightening. That is why I think over here if it gets
overbought you could sell it.
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Gold to be weak over next two weeks: Microsec
Commerze
Published on Wed, Feb 17, 2010 Source : CNBC-TV18
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India gold demand remained slack for a third day on Wednesday as prices
continued to rise, but a stronger rupee, which makes the dollar-quoted asset
cheaper, aided sentiment, dealers said.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Shamik Bhose, Microsec Commerze gave his
perspective on gold, crude, base metals and the dollar index.

4. Here is a verbatim transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What you think will this counter-cyclical bear market rally may do going forward and
your view consequently for the industrials?
A: Over the last 4-5 weeks when the dollar got stronger, a lot of the carry trade unwound and
some of these things came down sharply whether it would be precious metals, base metals or
energy. Having come down very sharply, you are seeing a short covering bounce and a certain
amount of hedge buying.
What happens is this gives an opportunity for the hedges to go in and short the market again.
Secondly, basically it’s a technical move and having come down too much too fast. It found some
amount of technical support and I think unless the US dollar index closes below 77 or 78 on a
weekly basis this thing will reverse again and the dollar should get stronger again, especially as
55-57% of the US Dollar index is nominated in Euros.
The Euro weakness will percolate down to the dollar’s strength which will equal commodity
weakness going forward.
Q: If gains are capped at about the USD 80-81 dollar mark, are there any key breakout
levels on the dollar index on the upside you are looking at? Will that resume the crack in
industrials?
A: I would say the previous resistance would be the area 81 and I would reckon the support about
77 and 74 and as per the Euro is concerned we thought that if it breaks 1.35 decisively against
the dollar it will go at 1.28, a lot of talk was surrounding Greece.
But remember Greece is out of the woods, they have a lot of bond re-rolling to be done going into
April and that is why I personally think the Euro weakness will re-assert itself and therefore it
would be similar to commodity weaknesses going forward.
Q: So you wouldn’t be buying gold or silver from the precious metals space or copper or
nickel that has had good traction right now from the base?
A: Not right now because I expect to see gold at a weaker pace in the next couple of weeks. But I
think gold will delink from this because gold is seen as stone of value and the inflation and the
monetary asset but in terms of commodities or base metals or crude oil I am a seller at these
levels and these are good levels where you can resume selling once again and once the market
finds technical resistance you should resume selling.