- Bitcoin is currently in the "slope of enlightenment" phase of the hype cycle, as its technology is becoming better understood after initial hype and disillusionment. - Investment in Bitcoin companies has surged, with $226M invested in the first quarter of 2015 alone, which will fuel further innovation. - Startups are addressing areas like payments, wallets, mining, financial services, exchanges to make Bitcoin more useful and easy to use for mainstream audiences.

1. hi =)
@simondingle

2. A quick introduction: I host a technology radio show on 5FM, some podcasts, advise 22seven, and look after
product design at BitX.
BitX runs Bitcoin exchanges in South Africa, Malaysia and Kenya. We also have offices in Singapore, Indonesia
and the USA. Our Bitcoin wallet and storage services are available globally.

3. ?
It’s interesting chatting to people who’ve just found out about Bitcoin. I’m interested in the first words that jump
into their mind when thinking about it. What are the words you think of?

4. volatile
A word I often hear when I speak to people trying to understand Bitcoin is “volatility”. That’s because the price
of Bitcoin jumps up and down in relation to other currencies. You could flip that around, however, and suggest
that currencies like the Dollar are volatile - their price against Bitcoin is all over the place =)
I believe Bitcoin’s ‘volatility’ will go away in not too long. Let’s not confuse Bitcoin’s short-term volatility with
it’s long-term awesomeness.

5. complicated
Another word I often hear when talking about Bitcoin is ‘complicated’. That’s because Bitcoin is new and, from a
technical perspective, is pretty advanced.
However, Bitcoin doesn’t need to be complicated in terms of what it can do for you. Bitcoin is money for the
internet. You can buy stuff with it, send it to friends or receive it as payment. Simple.
The internet is also complicated in terms of how it works, but simple in terms of what you do with it. We need to
start talking about Bitcoin the same way.

6. decentralised
This is my favourite word associated with Bitcoin. It doesn’t rely on a central authority. You can be your own
bank with Bitcoin. This decentralised nature is its most exciting quality.

7. I tend to see all problems as design problems, so when I think about Bitcoin changing the world, I try to imagine
its adoption as a design challenge. The technology is elegant, but the experience of using it is still clumsy for
most people. If Bitcoin is going mainstream, we have to design experiences of using it that are friendlier for non-
technical users.
We need to make Bitcoin as attractive on the outside as it is internally.

8. Diffusion of innovations
It’s interesting to consider Bitcoin in terms of traditional product lifecycle management. Let’s think of Bitcoin as a
product and look at it through the lens of two product theories, beginning with the diffusion of innovations.

9. This is the ‘diffusion of innovations’ graph that tracks a product throughout its adoption.

10. Innovators
Adoption of any new technology begins with the innovators themselves. These are the people that created it
and are its de facto first users. In the case of Bitcoin, this was the pseudonymous character of Satoshi
Nakamoto and the first computer scientists that contributed to its development, including Mike Hearn and Gavin
Andresen.
If Justin Bieber was a product, this would’ve been when he was first discovered by the people who write his
music.

11. Innovators Early adopters
Next come the early-adopters. This is an exciting phase for any new product, because early adopters are
awesome. They give you heaps of feedback and don’t mind putting up with the technical complexities of new
products. They will actually sacrifice their own time to make things work and think of themselves as co-creators
more than mere users.
The young teens that first started listening to Justin Bieber were the early-adopters, key to his success in the
mainstream.

12. Innovators Early adopters Early majority
If a product survives the early adopter phase, it goes on to the early majority. This is when a product can first
be considered “mainstream”. The cool kids are using it and telling their friends about it. People are posting
about it on Facebook and your mother has heard about it.
For Justin Bieber, this was when he got play on big radio stations and his fan base started looking more diverse
than just screaming teenagers.

13. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority
The late majority stage is when mainstream adoption begins to hit saturation points. This is when ‘everyone’ is
using the product.
Like when your mother started listening to Justin Bieber.

14. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
Finally come the ‘laggards’. This is where Justin Bieber is right now. Still killing it, but not opening up new
market segments. And probably about to disappear.

15. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
The curve of adoption in terms of market saturation looks like this orange line. It tips past 50% as a product
moves from early majority to late majority.

16. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
“Thechasm”
In-between early adopters and the early majority market, however, looms ‘The Chasm’. This was a term coined
by author Geoffrey A. Moore who identified the chasm as the most challenging period for any innovation as it
moves between two fundamentally different markets. Many products die because they can’t “cross the chasm”
and make the necessary changes to appeal to mainstream customers.

17. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
“Thechasm”
That’s where Bitcoin is headed in the short-term. It’s still being used and loved by early-adopters, but it must
cross the chasm and become more appealing and less confusing to everyone else if it’s going to make the leap
into the mainstream.

18. So how will Bitcoin cross the chasm?

19. State of Bitcoin Q1 2015
The guys over at CoinDesk recently put out their latest report on the Bitcoin status quo. It gives us a great
overview of the Bitcoin landscape and I’d like to pick out a few points in terms of discussing Bitcoin’s leap into
the mainstream.

20. Q1 2015: The biggest yet for Bitcoin investment
US$226m, of a projected US$676m for the year
CoinDesk - State of Bitcoin Q1 2015
Firstly, CoinDesk points out that the first quarter of 2015 was massive for investment in Bitcoin companies.

21. “Improved regulatory clarity … building confidence and attracting Wall Street.”
CoinDesk - State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

22. $250m
$349m
1995
Internet
$916m
$638m
$3b
2015
Bitcoin (projected)
1996
Internet
2015
Fintech (projected)
2014
Bitcoin
It’s interesting to compare investment in Bitcoin with that of the early internet. Money is pouring into the
ecosystem, which will spark innovation and bring us ways of making Bitcoin work for mainstream users.

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Payment
Processing
Wallets
Mining
Financial
Services
Exchanges
Bitcoin Startup Ecosystem: 2015
CoinDesk - State of Bitcoin Q1 2015
The startup ecosystem is thriving thanks to the investment mentioned in the previous slides. These are the most
prominent companies that CoinDesk currently lists as shaping the Bitcoin landscape across six key areas. They
are the companies that will help carry Bitcoin across the chasm.

24. “Factoring in remittance fees makes Sub-Saharan Africa the most fertile market for Bitcoin … “
CoinDesk - State of Bitcoin Q1 2015
Africa remains of particular interest for mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, along with South-East Asia and other
developing markets that tend to leapfrog the “first world” in terms of innovation.

25. Good design will also be key. Of course =)
CoinDesk - State of Bitcoin Q1 2015

26. The Hype Cycle
Another interesting theory is Gartner’s ‘Hype Cycle’ that looks at the visibility of new technologies and products
over time…
Time
Visibility

27. Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
These are the different phases of the Hype Cycle, as described by Gartner. They’re pretty self-explanatory and
it’s fun to think of our favourite products in terms of where they are in the cycle now. Smartphones, for example,
are on the ‘plateau of productivity’. They are well understood and make a meaningful contribution to society.

28. Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
Bitcoin is over here, from my perspective. It has moved through the cycle relatively quickly, compared to other
new technologies, and is now approaching the slope of enlightenment, although there is still a lot of
disillusionment related to perceptions in the market.

29. Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
It’s also interesting to compare the price of Bitcoin, which hit a high of over $1200 at the end of 2013, with its
position in the Hype Cycle…

30. ?
So with massive investment, smart startups working to make it more appealing, and a growing base of
mainstream users, the future looks bright for Bitcoin as it approaches the ‘slope of enlightenment’. But where is
it going in the immediate future?

31. In a word? Everywhere. Regulation is needed for Bitcoin to really change the world of money, but we’re
confident that this will come soon. Increasingly, however, people are just going ahead and using Bitcoin
because of the massive opportunities it holds. It’s the quickest and easiest way to start receiving money from
online customers, for example.

32. Mobile will also be key to taking Bitcoin mainstream. I think of the smartphone like Pacman, chomping up all the
other things in its environment. It consumed your bedside alarm-clock, your walkman, your GPS and your
notebook. It’ll soon replace your wallet too, and products like Apple Pay have helped educate the market about
how awesome mobile money can be.
Bitcoin is the best kind of money we’ve ever had. It and your phone are a match made in heaven =)

33. thank you
@simondingle