Can social media Turn the tables in Indian Elections 2014? Find out more here. #election2014

1. SOCIAL
MEDIA
BUZZ
ANALYSIS
REPORT
December 2013

2. What to expect?
1. Top 10 Politicians
2. Top Political Parties
3. Can social media turn the tables in Indian elections 2014?
4. Uncover the key insights on Elections

3. Key Findings this December
2.6 Crore – total active reach of social media buzz in
December 2013
BJP wins big on social media; AAP catching up.
With the victory in Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal
made it to the No. 1 position among the politicians
Narendra Modi beaten by Kejriwal in December.
Modi slipped to the No. 2 position.
Arvind Kejriwal & AAP are clearly the gainer of buzz
after the Delhi election poll results were declared

4. TOP 10 POLITICIANS
DECEMBER
2013

5. TOP 10 POLITICIANS
Simplify360
Social Index (SSI)
70
73
1 Arvind Kejriwal
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
1,67,515
7,84,734
61
2 Narendra Modi 3 Rahul Gandhi
ARVIND KEJRIWAL
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
1,08,331
5,36,202
SINGH
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
24,559
40,104
Shashi Tharoor
7 HARSH VARDHAN
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
62,532
1,94,649
59
61
Sheila Dikshit
6 MANMOHAN
68
69
17,366
32,108
Ranking of politicians based on a politician’s overall score
4 Manmohan Singh 5 Sonia Gandhi
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
44,637
99,314
20,852
53,545
9 Rajnath Singh
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
30,450
78,008
56
58
8 Harsh JAITLEY
ARUN Vardhan
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
63
14,436
33,815
10 Subramanian Swamy
No. of unique
people talking
Total buzz in
the month
28,355
1,00,211

6. THOUSANDS
6 FOLD INCREASE IN BUZZ ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL POST DELHI ELECTION RESULTS
90
80
70
Be it the buzz on government formation in Delhi or Arvind Kejriwal to be CM or
people surprised on AAP surpassing the expectations - Arvind Kejriwal has
certainly become the rockstar on social media
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
01-12-2013
06-12-2013
11-12-2013
16-12-2013
21-12-2013
26-12-2013
Narendra Modi
Arvind Kejriwal
Rahul Gandhi
Sonia Gandhi
Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned politicians in December, 2013
Average mentions per
day on Arvind Kejriwal
Before the Delhi elections poll result
4,933
After the Delhi elections poll result
31,258
31-12-2013

7. ARVIND KEJRIWAL IS CLEARLY THE TOP GAINER OF BUZZ AFTER THE DELHI ELECTION POLL RESULT
Total mentions
31,258
Average Mentions per day Before Delhi Elections poll result
Average Mentions per day After Delhi Elections poll result
17,195 17,327
7,480
4,933
2,160
Arvind Kejriwal
Narendra Modi
Rahul
3,177 2,324
Sonia Gandhi
Delhi Poll result impact analysis: Comparison of number of mentions of a politician before and
after the declaration of poll result on Dec 8, 2013.
Mentions on Dec 8 onwards is considered as post poll mentions.

8. TOP TWEETS ON MODI
1
3
2
4

9. TOP TWEETS ON ARVIND KEJRIWAL
1
2
3

10. TOP TWEETS ON RAHUL GANDHI
1
3
2
4

11. Politicians by favorability score
Most loved
Least loved
81
17
1. LALU PRASAD YADAV
1. ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE
39
78
2. SYED SHAHNAWAZ HUSSAIN
2. ARUN JAITLEY
&
77
3. Y. S. JAGANMOHAN REDDY
46
3. MULAYAM SINGH YADAV & AKHILESH YADAV
Note: Analysis based on the top politicians whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month

12. TOP POLITICAL PARTIES
DECEMBER
2013
Parties

13. TOP POLITICAL PARTIES
Simplify360 Social Index (SSI)
79
Bharatiya Janata Party
1 BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
155,811
963,667
2
3
Aam Aadmi Party
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
102,948
470,223
46
48
4
63
71
5
NCP
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
10,183
18,688
Indian National Congress
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
127,270
435,449
39
6
CPI (M)
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
23,158
38,444
Bahujan Samaj Party
No. of unique people
talking
Total buzz in the month
8,145
13,729

14. THOUSANDS
BJP LEADS WITH A WIDE MARGIN; CONSISTENTLY
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
01-12-2013
06-12-2013
11-12-2013
16-12-2013
21-12-2013
26-12-2013
31-12-2013
-20
Indian National Congress
Bharatiya Janata Party
Aam Aadmi Party
Daily mentions of the top 4 most mentioned political parties in December, 2013
Communist Party of India (Marxist)

15. SOCIAL MEDIA SCORE OF MOST PROMINENT POLITICAL PARTIES
Following is the list of 9 most prominent national and regional parties with their performance stats on social
media. Total score is arrived by considering four broad parameters. Details of the methodology is given in
the appendix
Party Name
Bharatiya Janata Party
Aam Aadmi Party
Indian National Congress
Nationalist Congress Party
Communist Party of India (Marxist)
Bahujan Samaj Party
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Biju Janata Dal
Janata Dal (United)
Buzz Volume
Unique People
Talking
9,63,667
4,70,223
4,35,449
18,688
38,444
13,729
8,513
6,972
10,197
1,55,811
1,02,948
1,27,270
10,183
23,158
8,145
5,719
4,848
6,338
Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month
Simplify360
Social Index (SSI)
79
71
63
48
46
39
38
35
30

16. TOP TWEETS ON BJP
1
3
2
4

17. TOP TWEETS ON AAP
1
3
2
4

18. TOP TWEETS ON CONGRESS
1
3
2
4

19. Parties by favorability score
Most loved
Least loved
93
7
1. BHARATATIYA JANATA PARTY
1. JANATA DAL (UNITED)
8
79
2. COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA (MARXIST)
2. AAM AADMI PARTY
12
30
3. BIJU JANATA DAL
3. NATIONALIST CONGRESS PARTY
Note: Analysis based on the top parties whose buzz volume is greater than 5K during December month

20. Can social media
Turn the tables in
Indian Elections 2014?

21. TOP 4 REASONS ON WHY SOCIAL MEDIA IS IMPORTANT
1
2
Percentage of Indian voters on Social Media close to votes won by Congress in 2009
In 2009, Congress won Lok sabha election with a vote share of only 28.6% of all the votes casted. So the
presence of 24% of Indian voters on social media is really big to turn the tables in Indian Elections.
2.6 Crore Indians read tweets related to elections
2.6 Crore Indians have read Tweets on elections from their timeline over the past one month. There are
likely chances that this voting population can be influenced by social media discussions
31%
31% of Indian people who are on Twitter have read a Tweet on Indian Elections over the past one month
3
Peer recommendations on social media are very powerful
Most people trust their peer recommendations. This peer recommendations can influence a voter’s
decision on whether or not to support a party/politician
90%
90% of consumers trust peer recommendations on social media*
4
Discussions on elections is a hot topic on social media
Almost everyday, either a political party or a politician has trended on Twitter signifies how hot is the discussion on
elections in social media
Source: www.socialnomics.net

22. 24% OF ACTUAL VOTERS ARE ON SOCIAL MEDIA
Steps
Methodology
Calculation
Total population of India
Step 1:
Voting Population
Calculation of
‘People
actual Voting’ Voting Population with card and availability
People actual voting
Step 2:
Total Online Population
Calculation of
‘Percentage
% of Total population
of social
media users
Social media users in India
in online
population’
% of social media users in online population
Step3:
% Social Media Users w.r.t voting Population
Calculation of
% of actual
voters on
% of actual voters on Social Media
Social Media
Statistics
1,27,00,00,000
60%
70%*
70%*
76,20,00,000
53,34,00,000
37,33,80,000
12,30,00,000
Total Online Population/Total
population of India
10%
9,10,00,000
Source
WorldPopulationStat
istics.Com
BusinessStandard.com
Assumption
Assumption
Economictimes.India
times.com
Calculation
TimesofIndia.Indiati
mes.com
No.of social media users/total
Online Population
74%
Calculation
Social media users in
India/Voting Population
12%
Calculation
Social media users in
India/People actually voting
24%
Calculation

23. Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: Globally
1 7 2 0 4 4 0 4 6
,
,
,
Number of People who actually read a tweet on Politics: India
31% of Twitter users in
India have actually read a
tweet on Politics.
2 5 8 0 6 6 0 7
,
,
,
Total tweets on Elections: India
3 7 1 0 1 0 1
,
,
Total people talking about elections: India
8 7 8 1 2 7
,
,

24. Unique people talking: Week on Week basis
Delhi Elections have certainly
triggered many people to talk on
elections, whether it is the above
par performance of AAP or BJP,
social media has become a key
platform for people to raise their
voice
*Week starting from Monday
Week 49
2,10,510
Week 50
Week 51
Week 52
3,20,075
2,61,494
2,23,051

25. Top 3 States discussing on Indian Elections
As expected, Delhi elections have
fuelled the pace of people
talking on Elections making NCT
as the top region followed by
Maharashtra and Karnataka.
24.1%
23.6%
13.2%
%age mentions
from NCT
%age mentions
from Maharashtra
%age mentions
from Karnataka
Gender wise distribution
18% 82%
FEMALE MALE
Most of the discussions on
Politics were from Men

26. “
What could possibly
be more important
than what your
consumers [voters] say
about you?”
Mary O’Connell
Director of Global Digital
Marketing, Clorox Brands

27. BUZZ ON INDIAN ELECTIONS IS ON AN INCREASING TREND
Delhi elections (Polls) counting day
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
23-11-2013
28-11-2013
03-12-2013
08-12-2013
Count
13-12-2013
Linear (Count)
18-12-2013
23-12-2013
28-12-2013

28. BUZZ VOLUME AND NUMBER OF SEATS A PARTY WON HAS MODERATE CORRELATION
32
35
12,00,000
28
30
8,00,000
20
6,00,000
15
8
9,63,667
4,00,000
10
5
4,70,223
4,35,449
0
2,00,000
0
Indian National Congress
Bharatiya Janata Party
Buzz Volume
PARTY NAME
Bharatiya Janata Party
Aam Aadmi Party
Indian National Congress
Aam Aadmi Party
No.of seats won by a party
BUZZ VOLUME
9,63,667
4,70,223
4,35,449
NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON IN
DELHI ELECTIONS
32
28
8
Buzz Volume
No.of Seats
25
10,00,000

29. BUZZ OPINION DIRECTLY REFLECTS ON BALLOT
32
35
100
28
30
90
No.of Seats
25
70
20
60
50
93
15
79
8
10
5
40
30
20
24
10
0
0
Indian National Congress
Bharatiya Janata Party
Favorability Score
PARTY NAME
Favorability Score
(On a scale of 100)
Bharatiya Janata Party
Aam Aadmi Party
Indian National Congress
*Sample of data is used for sentiment analysis of parties
93
79
24
Aam Aadmi Party
No.of seats won
NO.OF SEATS A PARTY WON
IN DELHI ELECTIONS
32
28
8
Favorability Score
80

30. APPENDIX
About the Company and
Research Methodology

31. CAN WE RANK A POLITICIAN/PARTY
BASED ON PEOPLE’S OPINION
ON SOCIAL MEDIA?
Uncover the Simplify360
Social Index (SSI) for ranking a politician/Party
Reasons on why ranking is important?
1. Buzz alone cannot determine the
performance of a politician/party
2. Ranking helps in benchmarking a
politician/party with others
3. Few people generating more buzz
on a politician/party may not
indicate a politician/party has
performed well compared to others
on social media

32. Simplify360 Social Index (SSI)
A POLITICIAN/PARTY IS RANKED BASED ON FOUR BROAD PARAMETERS
AWARENESS
SPREAD
Total Twitter mentions and
unique people talking
about a party/politician
are considered for finding
the Awareness score
Volume of buzz
Weights
X%
Unique People
talking about
Y%
Measures the quality of
Twitter mentions spread
by considering Total
impressions, total buzz
and unique people talking
about
PROMINENCE
A measure of how
prominient a politician on
other social media
platforms, which is
measured through Twitter
by considering the links
shared, images and
videos
FAVORABILITY
Measures the extent of
Favourability a
politican/party. Considers
Sentiment in to account
for analyzing the
Favorability score
Quality of
Spread
Number of
images or
videos and links
Considers
Opinion of
people
Z%
P%
Q%
SCORES ARE NORMALIZED AT EACH SUB PARAMETER LEVEL AND AT BROAD PARAMETER LEVEL TO GET THE FINAL SCORE FOR A POLITICIAN/PARTY

33. About the Data:
Timeframe: December 01, 2013 – December 31, 2013
Geography: India
Data sources*:
All the tweet mentions on Indian elections,
parties & politicians were tracked from Twitter
using Simplify360 tool.
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