File ini hanya merupakan hasil latihan membuat prakiraan (forecast) curah hujan dan hari hujan Mei, Juni, Juli 2013.

1. PRAKIRAAN CH DAN HH
MEI, JUNI, JULI
DI PD BETUNG
Siska Chrisvenny Rajagukguk
13.11.2522
Klimatologi

2. Langkah-Langkah
Korelasi data
Korelasi tertinggi/ terendah
Forecast

3. 2013 526.8 224.8 102.1 336.9
4 bln terakhir 3 bln terakhir (A+2B)/3
0.47 0.91 0.76 0.95
-0.49 0.17 -0.05 0.94
-0.55 0.24 -0.02 0.90
0.65 -0.89 -0.37 0.89
0.15 -0.13 -0.04 0.85
TAHUN JAN FEB MAR APR
1980 248.9 264 140.5 202.3
1981 519 174 239 234
1982 403 179 165 180
1983 245 161 238 232
1984 303 284 396 198
NEXT

4. JAN FEB MAR APR
1980
26 19 17 10
1981
27 18 17 13
1982
25 18 16 16
1983
20 15 14 13
1984
24 17 21 22
2013 23 18 12 19
4 bln terakhir 3 Bln terakhir (A+2B)/3
0.42 -0.43 -0.14 0.97
0.57 -0.45 -0.11 0.94
0.77 0.38 0.51 0.90
0.68 -0.13 0.14 0.88
0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.87
NEXT

5. 0.95
0.94
0.90
0.89
0.85
0.20
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.02
-0.04
-0.09
-0.12
-0.21
-0.36
NEXT
2013
FORECAST HH MEI JUNI JULI
13.8 8 5.6

6. 0.97
0.94
0.90
0.88
0.87
0.25
0.14
0.03
0.01
0.00
-0.10
-0.10
-0.11
-0.14
-0.16
NEXT

7. KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI
(HUJAN)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
2012 0.95 430.7 258.1 133.3 277.4 199.1 89.1 7.3
2011 0.94 170.8 132 64 186.2 122.6 75.5 71.8
1982 0.90 403 179 165 180 103 70 109
1986 0.89 278 227 223 273 232 126 113
1997 0.85 327.5 186.1 189.1 316.7 275.5 16.6 2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
AxisTitle
KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI
2012
2011
1982
1986
1997
NEXT

8. NEXT
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
2002 0.20 737.6 425.2 289 268.9 114.3 72.3 156.3
2007 0.11 140.6 831.4 83.6 266 180.3 70.4 0.7
1990 0.08 560.5 251.7 151.9 110.1 319.5 141.2 153
1983 0.05 245 161 238 232 261 113 0
2008 0.02 240.3 592.5 174.5 206.6 113.7 99.9 9.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
AxisTitle
KORELASI (+) TERENDAH
2002
2007
1990
1983
2008

9. KORELASI (-) TERTINGGI
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
1996 -0.04 298.2 482.9 278.2 281.4 68.6 55.8 36
1999 -0.09 279.9 262 151.5 90.8 281.8 173.8 111.5
1987 -0.12 482 250 331 290 162 149 82
1988 -0.21 325 234 185 109 324 96 84
2004 -0.36 385.8 317 334.1 182.8 290.4 26.8 228.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
AxisTitle
KORELASI (-) TERTINGGI
1996
1999
1987
1988
2004+Sheet1!$E$77:$K$77
NEXT

10. korelasi
(+)
tertinggi (HH)
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
2006 0.97 28 26 14 21 8 6 3
2000 0.94 23 18 15 21 22 13 6
2002 0.90 30 28 16 24 11 12 15
2012 0.88 28 18 15 17 20 3 1
1991 0.87 28 26 14 21 8 6 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
Korelasi (+) Tertinggi
2006
2000
2002
2012
1991
NEXT

11. korelasi
(+)
terendah
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
1989 0.25 19 26 19 19 31 15 12
1983 0.14 20 15 14 13 17 7 0
1998 0.03 12 24 22 22 21 20 20
2008 0.01 16 27 20 18 13 9 1
1984 0.00 24 17 21 22 13 7 8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
Korelasi Positif Terendah
1989
1983
1998
2008
1984
NEXT

12. korelasi (-)
tertinggi
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
2004 -0.10 23 21 19 15 20 8 9
1993 -0.10 25 21 23 23 15 14 8
1981 -0.11 27 18 17 13 11 12 14
1980 -0.14 26 19 17 10 9 6 8
2011 -0.16 21 17 16 12 19 6 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul
Korelasi Negatif Tertinggi
2004
1993
1981
1980
2011
NEXT

13. NEXT
FORECAST
2013
MAY JUN JUL
KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI 186.44 75.44 60.72
KORELASI (+) TERENDAH 1099.72 75.44 60.72
KORELASI (-) 1099.72 75.44 60.72

14. NEXT
FORECAST
2013
MAY JUN JUL
KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI 13.8 8 5.6
KORELASI (+) TERENDAH 19 16 8
KORELASI (-) 15 9 9.6