2.
Introduction Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>This presentation represents an attempt to travel through time and see the future. The future will consist of many things – we’re interested in seeing how Information Technology will evolve over the next ten years or so. </li></ul><ul><li>There are no guarantees with prediction and often times predictions become self-fulfilling – if we want something bad enough we might make it happen sooner (and the opposite may apply as well). </li></ul><ul><li>The main reason we predict the future is because it represents the only effective mechanism to help prepare for it. </li></ul>

3.
Key developments often occur at Nexus points – where trends merge together or when a critical realization is made…

4.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Predicting The Future

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Predicting is not Visioning Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Making accurate predictions is an art form; one must assess the realm of the possible and extrapolate the realm of the probable from it. </li></ul><ul><li>There is also a difference between visioning the future and predicting near-term achievable and / or likely developments. </li></ul><ul><li>Visioning tends to seem more accurate because it extends across decades and is less specific. Predictions tend to be more precise because of the near-term specific expectations that are identified. </li></ul>

6.
Prediction Categories Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>This presentation will separate our predictions across three key categories: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prediction of Major IT Trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prediction of Future IT Practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prediction of IT Impacts on Everyday Life </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Trends category will attempt to capture key overarching developments or directions for IT. </li></ul><ul><li>With ‘Practices’ we will examine what tomorrow’s IT workers will be doing. </li></ul><ul><li>And lastly, we’ll examine impacts on everyday life. </li></ul>

7.
What is Information Technology Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>One of the trends we’ve already begun witnessing is the growing convergence between what was viewed as a separate discipline with those practices it supports. </li></ul><ul><li>Information Technology (IT) no longer stands as its own domain – it has become irrevocably integrated with nearly every other activity in modern life. </li></ul><ul><li>IT is more than hardware, more than software, more than design, more than data, more than digital communications – it is the new lingua franca of modern civilization. </li></ul>

8.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Whether we like it or not, we’ve become a generation of IT Geeks – Internet Gaming, Facebook, Digital HD Television, Internet Telephony, iPads, Smartphones… Even imagining a lifestyle without IT is now becoming difficult.

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Our Predictions for IT Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Our methodology for this exercise is based upon two primary elements: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A survey of existing & emerging technology in 2011. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A analysis of the key business problems associated with IT practice over the past 20 years. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Our predictions represent an analysis of what likely technologies will be used in 2021 and how they will be exploited. We will also try to explain why we believe this will be the case. </li></ul>

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Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Predictions: IT Trends

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Sometimes the destination is obvious – the result of a logical progression; other times we take unexpected turns. Prediction must account for ‘ the human factor .’

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Trends & Hype Cycles Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>When analyzing or predicting trends it is important not to confuse Trends and Hype Cycles. </li></ul><ul><li>While Trends & Hype Cycles are often concurrent, they are not always the same. A Hype Cycle is a deliberate industry marketing effort – A trend on the other hand represents more of an informal consensus or direction that drives the market. </li></ul><ul><li>For example, right now “Cloud Computing” is a Hype Cycle – yet it combines elements of multiple trends including Virtualization & Infrastructure Consolidation and web services standards. </li></ul>

13.
Crosscutting Trend Dynamism Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Realization – Hard coding all aspects of both infrastructure and application / data capability is costly. It is even more complicated when translated across dozens or hundreds of systems or services. </li></ul><ul><li>Impact – with increasing data, expanding application inventories and more complex requirements, IT providers will need to find more efficient ways of managing their portfolios. </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic IT – This is the cross-cutter. IT departments will adopt a variety of Dynamic technologies & techniques – moving away from static, hard-coded solutions. Evolution becomes continuous rather than transformational. </li></ul>

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Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Everything in Nature which appears to be solid & static is in fact flexible and dynamic…

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Infrastructure Consolidation Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>This is perhaps our easiest prediction because this trend has already been underway for more than five years. </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure Consolidation includes process integration, regional data center consolidation, application & data management consolidation, security coordination and facility management elements. </li></ul><ul><li>Centralization & Redistribution comes in cycles though. 2021 will represent the end of the current consolidation trend and the beginning of the next de-centralization trend . Decentralization will return as data, applications & hardware become more dynamic and less complex to manage. </li></ul>

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Capability Consolidation Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>This is another trend that has been underway for the past decade (through such solution approaches as ERP). </li></ul><ul><li>Capability Consolidation will reach its zenith around 2021. Combined software / service (SAAS) will become more successful, less costly to implement. </li></ul><ul><li>This will mark the beginning of a new round of differentiating capability. Now that some of the basics have been mastered – new capabilities will begin to enter mainstream IT. </li></ul>

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Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Consolidation & Standardization occurred with modern industrialization before the advent of IT – since then it continues to be reinvented on a regular basis.

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Rapid Hardware Evolution Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Hardware has been evolving rapidly over past decade. This trend will accelerate substantially. </li></ul><ul><li>Hardware will become more versatile, there will be more overlap between business and consumer hardware and hardware will become about 100x more efficient (speed, memory, features) by 2021. </li></ul><ul><li>New advances in variable state memory (quantum computing) exploitation of new understanding of static electricity and trends for energy efficiency will leave all current H/W obsolete very quickly. Hardware costs will not lower much beyond current price ranges. Cost differences between new products (introduction) and older product lines will narrow… </li></ul>

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Crosscutting Trend Intelligence <ul><li>Realization – The main reason Artificial Intelligence failed to realize its potential over the past 20 years was due to misplaced expectations. The application of intelligence does not require machines to think for themselves, but merely to aid our thinking… </li></ul><ul><li>Impact – This trend will redefine the nature of analytics but will not unleash the machine apocalypse. Machines will not become sentient, but we will be empowered to do much more cross domain examination and problem solving. This should lead to an explosion in innovation. </li></ul><ul><li>Intelligent IT – Intelligence is viewed as Cognitive Enhancement rather than replacement. IT Intelligence and end users will be viewed as symbiotic partners. </li></ul>

20.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Why worry about evil supercomputers when there are so many unpleasant people we could worry about instead ?

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Semantic Intelligence Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Many people have heard of the Semantic Web, many others saw a computer defeat Jeopardy’s all time champions this year – there is a connection. </li></ul><ul><li>While Watson, the IBM supercomputer who made headlines on Jeopardy wasn’t built entirely around Semantic Web standards, it was built around the premise that Semantic Reasoning is perhaps the most important tool we have in helping to sift through massive amounts of data rapidly. </li></ul><ul><li>Semantic Intelligence represents the systematic exploitation of both semantic standards as well as core semantic computing principles / techniques. </li></ul>

22.
Semantics is the Alpha & Omega Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Collaborative Intelligence Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>The second most valuable tool we will have is each other. We are at the brink of what will eventually come to be known as Collaborative Intelligence or Cognition. </li></ul><ul><li>In some ways we are already experiencing this in a delayed sense through open source software and collective commons. </li></ul><ul><li>The real power though of Collaborative Cognition will be the power to harness expertise and thought across communities of practice in near-real time and eventually real-time. </li></ul>

24.
Collaboration Makes Sense … Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Predictions: IT Practice

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What is IT Practice ? Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>IT Practice is similar to other practices (like Accounting or Law or Medicine) in that it involves a similar set of activities built atop a core foundation of skills, knowledge and capabilities. </li></ul><ul><li>IT Practice is different though in that there is a built in expectation for dynamic change at the fundamental level. </li></ul><ul><li>While Doctors, Lawyers and Accountants are fundamentally the same as they were 100 years ago – IT experts didn’t exist yet. Since then the field has redefined itself many times… </li></ul>

27.
IT Practice will always have new goals, targets and approaches. The key is solving today’s challenges so we can move to tomorrow’s…

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What is an IT Practice ? <ul><li>Just as within Law or Medicine there are specialized sub-disciplines so to in IT are focused practice areas. </li></ul><ul><li>Today those practices include; Enterprise Resource Planning Consulting, Management Consulting, Data Modeling & Development, Application Development, Infrastructure Deployment, Business Intelligence / Analytics and so on. </li></ul><ul><li>There are more than a dozen practice areas with dozens of industry variations. </li></ul>

29.
Example of Integrated IT Practices

30.
Prediction: Enterprise in a Box <ul><li>The consolidation trends will lead to a new IT practice which might also be referred to as “Turn-Key Transformation.” </li></ul><ul><li>The idea behind this would be that within one engagement the provider would take care of all H/W (whether onsite or Cloud), all process engineering, all software, all data transformation, all application logic transformation and all related support requirements all at the same time. </li></ul><ul><li>This makes sense as a logical progression of current trends & there will always need to be some level of customization . It is the end of a trend though… </li></ul>

31.
The Science of Cyber Attack

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Prediction: Holistic Cyber Security <ul><li>As Steve Martin used to say, Cyber Security ain’t pretty. Well, maybe he didn’t say that but he should have. The practice of Cyber Security right now is fractured into a number of loosely related disciplines. </li></ul><ul><li>The problem is there’s one enterprise to secure and no uniform approach for securing it. This places most enterprises at risk and is making Cyber attack more profitable for criminals and more attractive for terrorists. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2021, Holistic Cyber Security will be the most important of all IT practices. This will happen because it has to happen in order for us to survive… </li></ul>

33.
The Power to Learn

34.
Prediction: Dynamic Learning <ul><li>In the late 1990’s, Many people thought e-learning would be the Internet’s killer application… </li></ul><ul><li>12 years later, that hasn’t happened yet. Why, because pedagogy & technology couldn’t agree on what learning really is and what it can become. </li></ul><ul><li>These questions are in the process of resolving themselves right now and will result in a new approach to education – Dynamic Learning – by 2021. </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic Learning will leverage Collaborative Cognition, Semantic Intelligence and dynamic system capabilities like curriculum mapping and on the fly content creation or harvesting… </li></ul>

35.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. Predictions: Everyday Impacts

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Consumer Device Consolidation Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Most people now have a myriad of devices to manage – cell phones, televisions, desktop computers, laptops, ipads, MP3 players, cameras, ebook readers, videogames – and the list goes on. </li></ul><ul><li>What we will see in the next ten years is more pragmatism. The number of devices will shrink and their feature sets will encompass what were multiple devices before. </li></ul><ul><li>This is an extension of a current trend. In 2021 we will have 1 device which does everything with multiple projection capabilities and a detachable handheld unit. The handheld unit will be pluggable into cars and other computing platforms outside the home. </li></ul>

37.
Technology & Democracy Knowledge is made up of many building blocks , over the next 10 years an ever-growing portion of the human race will be contributing new blocks…

38.
Knowledge Democratization <ul><li>This is another example of an existing trend which will reach something close to its full potential by 2021. </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge Democratization is the notion that development, interpretation and dissemination of Knowledge will be managed by an ever growing number of people (mainly through collaborative toolsets and later using Semantic and Collaborative Intelligence). </li></ul><ul><li>Anyone can be an expert if they apply themselves to a subject – this “Knowledge Democracy” will foster creativity, fairness and innovation. </li></ul>

39.
Conclusion <ul><li>In many ways 2021 will seem a lot like today. </li></ul><ul><li>For IT practitioners many of the technologies or approaches currently being used will still be around – many will have evolved and a few will disappear. </li></ul><ul><li>The real difference ten years from now will be the ease with which we begin to manage large data sets and to combine applications, processes and data from different areas to solve tasks in a more unified fashion. This will come not because we design all possible variations into systems, but because we begin designing more adaptive systems. </li></ul>

40.
Semantech Inc. is InnovationWorx <ul><li>Semantech Inc. is a solutions provider founded in 2007. Our company is located in the Dayton, Ohio metro area. Since our inception we have supported clients in a more than half a dozen industries nationwide. </li></ul><ul><li>Our company represents a unique approach – we’re not offering just IT or Management Consulting. We specialize in facilitating complex organizational Transformations. This is why Innovation Worx was created. Semantech was founded to facilitate change… </li></ul>

41.
Defining Reality Reality is a shared conceptual perspective of the world around us. As we contribute new ideas to that perspective – reality changes …

42.
The Future Begins… with an idea Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous – there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. <ul><li>Innovation represents the deliberate attempt to change current reality. </li></ul><ul><li>Those who believe that things can be better or can be done better have the motivation to pursue change – Innovation is the roadmap or blueprint for that change. </li></ul><ul><li>The Future consists of thousands of such blueprints coming together to build a new reality – Innovation Worx is dedicated to providing consistent and actionable Innovation for you… </li></ul>