A presentation conducted by Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America. Presented on Tuesday the 1st of October 2013 Rapidly evolving vehicular technologies, including the advent of driverless and connected vehicles, are likely to have far-reaching implications on the design, development, provision, and financing of infrastructure in the future.  There is widespread interest in and debate on the possible impacts that autonomous vehicles will have on people’s activity travel patterns, location choices, vehicle ownership, and use of time. At the same time, ubiquitous mobile technologies and rapidly evolving communication systems have provided the ability to access information any time anywhere, and to obtain instantaneous feedback on the financial, temporal, energy, carbon, and health impacts of the full range of travel choices that may be exercised by users of the transport infrastructure. The gradual penetration of driverless and connected vehicles into households and business fleets over a period of time will necessitate the adaptation of existing infrastructure to deal with a mixed fleet of autonomous and manually controlled vehicles on the transition to a fully automated transportation system. This presentation focuses on the scenarios that may play out on the path to transport automation and the implications of the different scenarios on the design and provision of infrastructure. The presentation will draw a distinction among various emerging vehicular technologies, consider market penetration scenarios, identify the range of behavioral choices and outcomes that may result from the ownership of such vehicles, and assess the sustainability implications of emerging vehicles.  While driverless vehicles may ease the stress of driving, enhance safety, reliability, and capacity utilization, and allow travelers to use travel time productively, many of these benefits do not necessarily come without costs. The convenience afforded by such technologies may lead to dramatic shifts in work and home location choices that result in larger vehicle miles of travel – which will in turn have implications from energy, environmental, and infrastructure provision perspectives.  This presentation includes a discussion of the multitude of perspectives that must be considered in planning for a driverless transportation system of the future.This presentation is the result of a collaboration between Professor Pendyala and Professors Brad Allenby and Mikhal Chester

1. ENDORSING PARTNERS
Next generation
infrastructure implications of
autonomous vehicles and
www.isngi.org
transport automation
The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney:
•
•
Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank)
Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW)
Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue
Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy
Dialogue
Presented by: Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of
Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools
of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America
www.isngi.org

2. Next Generation Infrastructure
Implications of Autonomous Vehicles and
Transport Automation
Ram M. Pendyala
School of Sustainable Engineering & the Built Environment
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
October 1-4, 2013; Wollongong, Australia
International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure

3. Drivers of Travel Demand
Time
Growth in
• Income
• Knowledge
Specialization in
•
Employment
• Consumption
• Social relationships
• Time use
Growth in
• Person Travel
• Commerce
• Communication
Source: Polzin (2010)

4. I’m not going to
Disney. I’m going
to stay home and
watch the Disney
Channel on the Big
Screen
First thing
I’m going to
do is sell my
big pickup
truck and go
for a walk
Mobility
Aspirations
I can’t wait to
cancel my trip for
the family reunion
and move to a
small condo
downtown
Source: Polzin (2010)

5. Connected Vehicle Research
 Connected vehicle
research addresses a suite
of technologies and
applications that use
wireless communications
to provide connectivity:
 Among vehicles of all types
 Among vehicles and a
variety of roadway
infrastructures
 Among vehicles,
infrastructure, and wireless
consumer devices
An initiative of the USDOT
Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office

6. Connected Vehicle Research

7. A “Connected” Vehicle
Data Sent
from the
Vehicle
Real-time
location, speed,
acceleration,
emissions, fuel
consumption,
and vehicle
diagnostics data
Data Provided to
the Vehicle
Real-time traffic
information, safety
messages, traffic
signal messages,
eco-speed limits, ecoroutes, parking
information, etc.
Improved Powertrain
More fuel efficient powertain including; hybrids, electric
vehicles, and other alternative power sources
Source: USDOT

8. Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle
 Google cars have
successfully driven
500,000 miles
 Set 2018 as expected
release date for selfdriving car

9. Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle

10. Levels of Vehicle Automation
 Level 0: No automation
 Level 1: Function-specific Automation
 Automation of specific control functions, e.g., cruise control
 Level 2: Combined Function Automation
 Automation of multiple and integrated control functions, e.g.,
adaptive cruise control with lane centering
 Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation
 Drivers can cede safety-critical functions; not expected to
monitor roadway constantly
 Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation
 Vehicles perform all driving functions and can operate without
human presence or intervention

11. Government Recognition
 Several states in the US passed legislative initiatives to
allow self-driving cars to navigate roadways

California, Nevada, and Florida
 National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration
Policy Statement

Policy guidance on licensing, safety, testing
 Autopilot Systems Council in Japan
 Citymobil2 initiative in Europe

12. Motivation for Automated Driving
Source: Bartels, 2013

13. Infrastructure Provision
 Increasingly complex activity-travel patterns
 Growth in long distance travel demand
 Limited availability of land to dedicate to transport
infrastructure
 Budget/fiscal constraints
 Energy and environmental concerns
 Information and communication technologies (ICT) and
mobile platforms can be leveraged
 Autonomous vehicles leverage technology to greatly
increase flow without the need to expand capacity

14. Mobility Implications
 Infrastructure considerations tied to potential impacts
of transport automation on mobility (people and freight)
 Safety enhancement





Virtual elimination of driver error (primary factor in 80 percent
of crashes)
Enhanced vehicle control, positioning, spacing, and speed
harmonization
How about offsetting behavior on part of drivers? Need to
eliminate possibility of offsetting behavior…
No drowsy drivers, impaired drivers, stressed drivers, or
aggressive drivers
Reduced number of incidents and network disruptions

15. Mobility Implications
 Capacity enhancement



Vehicle platooning greatly increases density (reduced headways)
and improves flow at transitions
Vehicle positioning (lateral control) allows reduced lane widths
and utilization of shoulders; accurate mapping critical
Optimization of route choice, passage through intersections, and
navigation through and around work zones
 Energy and environmental benefits



Increased fuel efficiency and reduced pollutant emissions through
vehicle operation improvement
Clean-fuel vehicles
Car-sharing provides additional benefits

16. Per Capita VMT Trend in USA
p
p
10,500
3,000,000
10,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
9,500
VMT
VMT per capita
9,000
8,500
1,000,000
500,000
8,000
0
7,500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total VMT (000,000)
2,500,000
Per Capita Annual VMT
3,500,000

17. Location Choices
 Live and work farther away



Use travel time productively
Access more desirable and higher paying
job
Attend better school/college
 Visit destinations farther away

Access more desirable destinations for
various activities
 Increased demand for infrastructure

18. Activity-Travel Choices
 Undertake more Travel
activities (and
Disutility
trips) resulting in
induced travel
demand


Reduced disutility
of travel
Positive utility of
travel
 Increased demand
for infrastructure
0
C
A
B
D
Travel
Time

19. Mode Choice
 Driving personal vehicle more convenient and safe
 Finding parking space no longer onerous
 Traditional transit captive market segments now able to
use auto (e.g., elderly, disabled)
 Reduced reliance/usage of public transit
 However, autonomous vehicles may present an
opportunity for public transit



Reliable transit service
Lower cost of operation (driverless)
More personalized service - smaller vehicles providing demandresponsive transit service

20. Vehicle Ownership Choice
 Potential to redefine vehicle ownership

No longer own personal vehicles; move towards car sharing
enterprise where rental vehicles come to traveler
 More efficient vehicle ownership and sharing scheme
may reduce the need for additional infrastructure

Reduced demand for parking
 Desire to work and be productive in vehicle



Use personal vehicle for long distance travel
Desire large multi-purpose vehicle with amenities to work and
play in vehicle
Increased demand for infrastructure

21. Vehicle Ownership Choice

22. Commercial Vehicle Operations
 Enhanced efficiency of
commercial vehicle
operations
 Driverless vehicles
operating during off-peak
and night hours reducing
congestion
 Reduced need for
infrastructure

23. Mixed Vehicle Operations
 Uncertainty in pace of technology availability,
affordability, and adoption (market penetration rate)
 Need for mixed vehicle operations for considerable
amount of time
 Infrastructure that accommodates both manual and
automated vehicles
 Intelligent infrastructure with dedicated lanes for
driverless cars

Managed lanes offer opportunity to accommodate self-driving
vehicles (dedicated technology-equipped lanes)

24. Smarter Infrastructure
Source: http://www.foreveropenroad.eu/

25. Traveler Still Makes Choices
 Infrastructure use largely driven
by user (departure time choice,
origin-destination travel
patterns, trip chaining)
 Provide information to traveler
with incentives to bring about
behavioral modification
 Combine driverless car
technology with traveler
information to optimize
infrastructure utilization

26. Infrastructure Impacts
 Several opposing forces, making determination of net
impacts uncertain
 Collect data and conduct focus groups to understand
possible behavioral impacts with infrastructure implications
 Recognize inter-dependent infrastructure systems

Information and communications technology, power, transport
 Less need for centralized control

Vehicles serve as decentralized nerve centers communicating with
one another
 Implement new backup systems to safeguard against
failure/hacking

27. Thank You