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H ow mark ets b eyond
metros h ave transf ormed
March 2017
India’ s growth
paradigm
C ontents
F orew ord .........................................................................................0 4
Executive h ig h l ig h ts ..........................................................0 6
1 . U rb aniz ation........................................................................1 0
2 . Time to re- strateg iz e: 5 0 not 8 .....................1 2
J aip ur and S urat.......................................................................... 1 4
Th e 1 1 th
- 2 0 th
h ig h - p otential mark ets............................. 1 6
G row th op p ortunities in 3 0 additional cities............ 1 8
M ark et- w ise rank ing s............................................................... 2 0
3 . U ntap p ed p otential ..................................................... 2 2
F M C G .................................................................................................. 2 4
R etail , f ash ion and durab l es................................................ 2 6
Auto .................................................................................................... 2 8
Tel ecom and D TH ........................................................................ 3 0
E- commerce ................................................................................... 3 2
Education ......................................................................................... 3 4
B F S I ..................................................................................................... 3 6
R eal estate ...................................................................................... 3 7
4 . O p timiz ing reach ............................................................3 8
TV ......................................................................................................... 4 0
P rint .................................................................................................... 4 1
D ig ital .................................................................................................. 4 2
R adio .................................................................................................. 4 3
O ut of h ome................................................................................... 4 4
G l ossary ...........................................................................................4 6
Farokh Balsara
Media & Entertainment Leader,
EY India
Bharat Rajamani
Solution Leader, Marketing and
Advertising Risk Services (MARS),
EY India
Ashish Pherwani
Media & Entertainment,
Advisory Leader, EY India
Nripendra Singh
Director, Media and Entertainment,
EY India
India is forging ahead as the world’s
fastest growing major economy. Urban
clusters are driving this growth, and more
consumers and more purchasing power is
emerging beyond the metros, particularly
in Tier II/III cities. Media consumption
has also matured in these markets, and
penetration of mediums like print, DTH
and radio can even be higher than in
metros. As the country’s economic and
media landscape continues to flatten,
sizable opportunities have arisen in this
new set of cities.
However, many companies today
continue to define their market,
marketing and investment plans through
a narrow lens focused on just the top
handful of cities. But to fully realize its
growth potential, India Inc. would be
well-served to evaluate these emerging
markets. Through our report, we aim to
understand this opportunity across India’s
fifty largest consumption hubs, and map
how companies today are approaching
individual hotspots.
We hope you find this report helpful in
exploring the opportunities this new wave
of high-potential urban markets has in
store for businesses, marketers and the
industry at large.
Foreword
* Largest 50 cities as per cumulative household income, excluding cities bordering metros and in Jammu & Kashmir
** A further 41mn lived in surrounding areas as part of the wider urban agglomeration-areas that do not fall under the definition of a ‘city’ per the government Census
Executive highlights
People will reside in Indian
cities in 2020, up from
420mn in 2015
>470mn
Real GDP growth of urban India
2015-20 4% higher than rural
India
8.8%
Of national GDP will be generated
by urban areas by 2020, up from
65% in 2015
>70%
Urban areas are the engines driving India’s growth
Of household income was concentrated
in such markets in 2015
INR 26.4trn
People lived in these cities in 2015**
123mn
The 50 largest cities* have transformed into major consumption hubs
A “new wave” of metros and mini-metros has emerged
Metros which possess household
income of at least INR 800bn
8
Additional markets-Jaipur and
Surat-will cross this INR 800bn
threshold before 2020
2
Cities’ household income will
exceed INR 400bn in 2020-up
from 18 such cities in 2015
26
*** Adjusted from urban area-level to city-level
Addition to the population
base of 42 new wave markets
from 2015-20- these cities’
population recently surpassed
that of metros and the gap will
continue to widen
6.9mn
Share of household income in
2020 for new wave markets
relative to metros-up from 58% in
2010
Fastest growing cities in terms
of 2015-20 annual GDP growth
are new wave markets
Top-1161%
42 new wave markets are catching up to India’s 8 metros
42 new wave markets’ total population is similar to that of 8 metros today, but they have…
as many TV households
as many DTH households
.88x
1.26x times a large print circulation***
1.06x
as many active Facebook users
0.63x
as many operational radio frequencies
2.17x
Media penetration in these new wave markets is rising and has
even passed that of metros in certain mediums
Markets with the greatest gap between demand-side consumption
and supply-side penetration belong to this new wave of non-metros
Markets that are the most
under-tapped by companies
today are all new wave cities
Top-23 These 23 markets represent 19% of metros’ household
income-but only 12% of retail outlets 15% of telecom
centres and 17% of malls
Mumbai
Ahmedabad
Jodhpur
Rajkot
Surat
Vadodara
Kota
Jaipur
Ludhiana
Amritsar
Jalandhar
Chandigarh
Bhubaneswar
Nashik
Jamshedpur
Varanasi Patna
Allahabad
Aurangabad
Nagpur
Bhopal
Gwalior
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Warangal
Vizag
Vijayawada
Hubli-Dharwad
Mysore
Coimbatore
Madurai
Trichy
Kochi
Trivandrum
Kozhikode
Dehradun
Jabalpur
Pune
Bangalore
Chennai
Kolkata
Delhi
Agra
Lucknow
Meerut
Ranchi
Dhanbad
Raipur
Guwahati
42New wave cities
Agra AGRA
Allahabad ALLH
Amritsar AMRT
Aurangabad AURA
Bhubaneswar BHUB
Coimbatore COIMB
Dehradun DHRD
Dhanbad DHNB
Guwahati GUW
Gwalior GWAL
Hubli-Dharwad HUBL
Jalandhar JALN
Jamshedpur JMSH
Jodhpur JODH
Kochi KOCH
Kota KOTA
Kozhikode KOZH
Ludhiana LUDH
Madurai MADU
Meerut MRUT
Mysore MYS
Nashik NASH
Raipur RAIP
Rajkot RAJK
Ranchi RNCH
Trichy TRCH
Trivandrum TRV
Varanasi VARAN
Vijayawada VIJY
Warangal WRNG
2 Fresh metros
10 Next set of
high-potential cities
30 Additional emerging markets
Bhopal BHOP
Chandigarh CHND
Indore INDR
Jabalpur JBLP
Kanpur KANP
Lucknow LUCK
Nagpur NAGP
Patna PATN
Vadodara VAD
Vizag VIZ
Jaipur JPR
Surat SURT
Ahmedabad AHM
Bangalore BNG
Chennai CHEN
Delhi DEL
Hyderabad HYD
Kolkata KOLK
Mumbai MUM
Pune PUNE
8metros
Traditional
Urbanization
1
5 5
61
67
5 5
62
69
5 0
5 5
60
65
70
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0
Citypopulation(mn)4,5,6
8 metros
203
272
371
117
15 8
217
0
100
200
300
4 00
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0
Percapitaincome(INR000s)4,6
4 2 new wave cities
2015 -20 CAGR%
of real GDP6
8 .3 %
8 .9 %
Due to lower growth in rural areas, both metros and new wave cities are expected to exceed national-level growth projections
till 2020 for population ( 1.1% 7
) and GDP ( 7.6% 8
) . But growth in new wave cities has edged out even metros in recent years, and
there are a few important factors at play. First, new wave cities’ younger demographics and higher fertility rates have helped
their population bases surpass that of metros. Second, as India Inc. began shifting its focus to these markets and modern
tec no o ies and practices fi tered t ro sinesses ere a e to capt re o - an in efficienc ains e res tin p-tick
in employment prospects helped make these cities attractive destinations for migrants, further boosting population levels. As a
result, new wave cities registered faster GDP growth in recent years and this is projected to continue till 2020.
India’ s growth paradigm | 11
Faster gains in population and per capita income will allow new wave cities’ G D P growth to outpace that of metros
India is evolving. In its seventh decade of independence, over
US$ 1trn has been added to national GDP, lifting tens of millions
into the middle class.
This growth has primarily come from cities, and the population
of urban areas has expanded from 34 0mn in 2006 to 4 30mn
in 20161
. Indeed, this 9 0mn addition alone would rank as the
sixteenth largest country in the world today. Given that urban
areas are projected to grow their share of national GDP from
65 % in 2015 to over 70% by 20202
, the dynamism of these
clusters will continue to hold the key to growth.
A new wave of consumption hubs
e entra a ommissions c assification of metros on t e
basis of population originally included just four cities-Delhi,
m ai o kata and ennai3
er time t is ist as e panded
to Bangalore and H yderabad in 2007, and Ahmedabad and
ne in takin t e tota n m er of defined metros to
eight3
. These markets are major consumption centres, each
containing household incomes of at least INR 800bn4
, and
the opportunity they present to companies has been well-
established.
H owever, there is a new emerging class of cities, with millions
of aspirational consumers who are vying for attention on the
national stage. These are India’ s “ new wave” consumption
s-defined ere as t e ne t cities c m ati e o se o d
income4
. Taken together, these 5 0 cities represent the key urban
markets for businesses, marketers and investors to target.
or d ities eport Ur ani ation and e e opment United ations
2. “ Assembling the Building Blocks” , Barclays EM Research, 2014 ; “ A tale of two economies- Rural and Urban” , Goldman Sachs Research, 2016; “ H ome is Where the Growth Is” ,
t ook ities as n ines of nc si e e e opment ndian nstit te for man ett ements na sis
and ities assification inistr of inance orta
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ities orderin metros and in ere not considered
ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs
6. EY Analysis
7. “ World Population Prospects” , United Nations, 2015 Revision
or d conomic t ook nternationa onetar nd an o a conomic rospects or d ank an
Millions more middle class
Time to
re-strategize:
50 not 8
2
The economic landscape of India is changing. It therefore
becomes a priority to identify high potential hotspots and
then accordingly sharpen strategies, resource allocation and
expansion plans.
ro t is report e aim to nderstand fift of ndia s ar est
cons mption markets t ro fo r ke parameters
I. A ddressable market size: H ow large is the potential
audience.
II. G rowth prospects i cons mption ro in t e s ort to
medium-term.
III. U ntapped potential o sat rated is t e market toda
IV . Media depth o easi can messa in reac identified
audiences.
Using these four parameters, we have developed a market
potential value for each metro and new wave city. These new
wave cities have been clubbed into the groups below and
each segment’ s potential and value drivers are outlined in the
following sections.
Total household income ( 2015 constant prices in INR trn) W idth: 2mn population H eight: INR 25 ,000 per capita income ( 2015 constant prices)
8 metros
India' s 2020 city sky line9
30 additional
new wave markets
11th
-20th
high potential
markets
Jaipur
Surat
24 . 7 2. 2 5. 8 7. 1
The focus of companies today and the majority of ad
spends are still concentrated in the top handful of cities.
t as ndia mat res si nificant cons mption and ad
spend growth is coming from aspirational smaller towns.
e are seein ma or c ients in ind stries ike and
Auto getting strong feedback from Tier II/III cities and re-
focusing on the same, though such shifts are generally
cate or and c ient-specific or instance e-commerce
players have so far concentrated on big cities as the
space is strongly driven by distribution.
In terms of media consumption, the lion’ s share of the
market still belongs to TV and print, although digital will
grow. Partly as a result of its high levels of competition,
TV is often the cheaper medium, and is used as the
lowest common denominator to reach mass. In contrast,
print is primarily localized. As media options in non-
metros are often more limited, there are fewer avenues
by which audiences are segmented. Advertisers must
t s caref e a ate t e efficac and time spent on
localized mediums in such cities.
Shashi Sinha
IPG Mediabrands
India’ s growth paradigm | 13
The top 5 0 markets
9 . EY Analysis
India’ s eight traditional metros have long been the primary
focus for India Inc., and these are the only cities that hold at
least INR 800bn in household income today. But this is set to
change, as J aipur and Surat join this group.
n t e ack of ro st pop ation ro t in estment acti it
and various government initiatives, J aipur and Surat are
projected to record real GDP growth of 8.7% and 10.3%
respectively from 2015 -20, relative to metros’ 8.3% 10
. As a
result, J aipur and Surat will cross this INR 800bn threshold
within one to two years, and total consumption levels will reach
75 % -80% of metros like Pune and Ahmedabad10
.
e risin si e and af ence of t ese markets is si nificant for
businesses and marketers alike, who should move from a top-8
city strategy to one centered around the country’ s ten major
consumption hubs.
Favourable demographics11
A key characteristic of J aipur and Surat is their favourable
demographics. While Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore dwarf
India’ s other markets with over 10mn people each, J aipur and
Surat have now grown to population levels exceeding smaller
metros like Pune.
op ation ro t as een dri en mi rant in o s and i
birth rates, resulting in the two cities collectively adding over
1.7mn to their population base between 2010-15 . J aipur and
Surat also have a distinct advantage in terms of their young
working-age cohort, with 22% of their population between 15 -24
years, relative to other metros’ 20% . This is set to pay dividends
on growth, as young, educated workers enter the labour force and
become new consumers that marketers can target.
Rising investment activity
J aipur and Surat are becoming major investment hubs, and
ere ranked o a in estors as t e first and fift most
attractive investment destinations after the metros, in EY’ s 2015
Attractiveness Survey12
. Several developments across both public
and private spheres are driving investment.
14 | India’ s growth paradigm
10. EY Analysis
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis
12. “ Ready, Set, Grow” , EY Attractiveness Survey, 2015
J aipur and Surat
have transformed
into India’ s 9 th
and
10th
metros
6. 2 5. 1
Total household income ( 2015 constant prices,
in INR trn)
Mumbai
Bangalore
India’ s growth paradigm | 15
• J aipur and Surat have both been selected to be developed
nder t e entra o ernment s mart ities ission
Developmental projects of ~ INR 25 bn are planned for each
cit nder t is pro ram inc din si nificant initiati es re ated
to water management, solar power and IT automation13
.
• Various infrastructure projects are underway, and are boosting
connectivity. Work on Surat’ s airport extension is due to
be completed in 2017, while J aipur’ s airport has grown to
re ister mont passen er traffic of ro a f
of Pune’ s14 ,15
) . Meanwhile, J aipur opened India’ s sixth metro-
rail system in 2015 , and further route extensions are already
under construction16
.
• Private investment has picked up, with Surat registering 21%
y-o-y nominal bank credit growth from 2012-16- higher than
any other metro or new wave city17
.
• e m ti- i ion do ar e i- m ai nd stria orridor
pro ect is a so in pro ress and ot cities i enefit from
being part of this manufacturing and investment backbone.
Increased consumption
H igh levels of individual consumption are also responsible for
these two cities’ status as the country’ s 9 th
and 10th
metros.
J aipur’ s 2015 annual per capita income of INR 0.20mn was
amongst the highest in the country and approaching that of
Kolkata; while Surat’ s INR 0.13mn per capita income was lower,
but still comparable to Ahmedabad18
.
Meanwhile, high levels of media consumption are providing
si nificant opport nities for marketers
• T V : J aipur and Surat have a cumulative 1.5 mn TV homes- as
many as Pune and Kolkata combined11
.
• P rint: J aipur and Surat-based publications have continued to
grow both circulation and ad volume since 2012- a feat not
achieved by any metro print market19
.
This suggests the scope for advertisers to re-calibrate media plans
towards these two markets.
W idth: 1mn population H eight: INR 5 0,000 per capita income ( 2015 constant prices)
India' s 2020 metro sky line10
4 . 4 3. 1 1. 9 1. 4 1. 4 1. 3 1. 2 1. 0
Surat
J aipur
Kolkata
Ahmedabad
PuneDelhi H yderabad
Chennai
it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of Ur an e e opment orta
14 . “ Airport runway extension to be completed” , Times of India, Apr.2016
raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta
ro ect tat s aip r etro ai orporation orta
arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s eser e ank of ndia - na sis
18. “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis
d o me of eported ications de - irc ation of eported ications dit rea of irc ation - na sis
20. “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics,
ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs
EY Analysis
it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of
Urban Development Portal, 2016
raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta
2016
arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s
Reserve Bank of India, 2012-16; EY Analysis
24 . “ Ready, Set, Grow” , EY Attractiveness Survey, 2015
25 . “ Ad Volume of Reported Publications” , TAM Adex, FY13-16
irc ation of eported ications dit rea of
irc ation -
27. EY Analysis
16 | India’ s growth paradigm
The 11th
-20th
high-potential cities
have become major
consumption hubs
in their own right-
cumulatively
equivalent to four
metros today
e af ence and si e of ndia s top- cities make t em markets
t at simp cannot e i nored firms ookin to ro top- ines
But tapping the next ten high-potential new wave markets can
de i er an incrementa reac e i a ent to ennai o kata ne
and Ahmedabad combined.
Sizable economies20
When population and per capita incomes are considered together,
the purchasing power of these ten cities is nearly INR 4 trn which
is on par with four metros.
• ities ike ckno anp r a p r ndore and opa a e
crossed 2mn in population, and present sizable opportunities
to grow volumes.
• t t e ot er end of t e spectr m cons mers in andi ar
i a and adodara are amon st t e most af ent in t e
country, with per capita incomes over INR 0.2mn.
G rowth clusters
There are a few common factors driving GDP growth in these
cities- projected to be a robust 8.9 % annually from 2015 -20.
• All cities ( except Patna) have already won funding from the
mart ities ission t n- n eac t e p anned
pro ects of andi ar ndore and a a p r are partic ar
notable and are set to boost development21
.
• Leaps in connectivity are taking place, and air passenger
traffic in t ese cities as mped from - re ati e
to metros’ 35 % 22
.
• Investment activity is strong and Patna, Vizag, J abalpur and
Bhopal each registered over 15 % y-o-y growth of nominal
bank credit during 2012-16- higher than every metro except
Ahmedabad23
.
• These cities have also become attractive destinations for FDI.
adodara andi ar i a and a p r ere a ranked
amongst the top eight non-metro investment destinations by
global investors in EY’ s 2015 Attractiveness Survey24
.
Media depth
The media markets of these ten new wave cities are different to
that of metros, in that they skew more towards print and radio
re ati e to is means marketers cannot take a one-si e-fits-
all approach and must select appropriate media vehicles to target
audiences.
or instance andi ar despite a in a pop ation of st
over 1mn, serves as a major print hub in the North and has the
country’ s seventh largest print ad volume25
. Meanwhile, markets
like Lucknow and Patna have seen rising print penetration,
recording over 8% annual circulation growth in recent years26
.
Not coincidentally, these three literate, print-centric markets
are also amongst the top-ranked non-metros in terms of digital
consumption.27
28. Ministry of Information & Broadcasting; EY Analysis
India’ s growth paradigm | 17
B h op al , C h andig arh , I ndore,
J ab al p ur, K anp ur,
L uck now , N ag p ur, P atna,
V adodara, V iz ag
2015 population + 2015 -20 addition 20
Ah medab ad, C h ennai,
K ol k ata, P une
2015 household income + 2015 -20 addition 20
Planned Smart City investment ( value) 20
2016 TV homes 20
2015 -16 Print ad volume 25
2016 Radio frequencies 28
2015 FMCG spend 20
2016 car households 20
20.4 mn
+ 1.9 mn
18.9 mn
+ 1.2mn
INR 4 .0trn
+ INR 2.0trn
INR 3.8trn
+ INR 2.0trn
INR 267bn INR 76bn
0.60mn 0.71mn
INR 189 bn INR 224 bn
3.3mn 3.6mn
185 mn sq. cm. 14 2mn sq. cm.
33 26
While the next thirty new wave cities by market value are
typically smaller in size, they tend to also have the highest
growth potential. To evaluate this potential, two elements have
been assessed for each city- its GDP growth in the medium-
term, and its untapped potential today ( i.e. gap between
demand-side consumption and supply-side penetration) .
ities i i ted in t e top-ri t adrant of t e c art
represent markets with the highest growth potential. Nearly
all highlighted cities ( Allahabad, Dehradun, Gwalior, J odhpur,
Kota, Raipur, Rajkot, Ranchi, Vijayawada and Warangal) belong
to this group of thirty additional new wave markets.
E conomic growth
The economic outlook in these ten cities is bright.
• Five cities have already secured funding from the Smart
ities ission it t e a e of p anned pro ects in aip r
and aran a partic ar si nificant at n and n
respectively29
.
• onnecti it pro ects are a so nder a and are oostin
economic linkages, with new airports in Allahabad and
Dehradun becoming operationalized in recent years30
.
• ese markets a so a e fa o ra e demo rap ics er
a fift of eac cit is made p of - ear o ds it
Allahabad, Gwalior and Kota leading the way at ~ 23% 31
.
The entry of this large youth demographic into the
workforce promises a growing consumer base and further
opportunities for businesses and marketers.
U ntapped potential
These ten markets are also under-saturated, and there appear
to be large gaps between local demand and supply across a
range of sectors.
For instance, the high growth and potential of state capitals like
Raipur, Ranchi and Dehradun have been singled out by industry
experts in the BFSI and Education sectors. In addition, when
compared to t e o era ni erse of fift cities in t ese
ten markets e d
• of e pendit re on t on of retai
outlets31,32
• 7.8% of expenditure on fashion & durables, but 6.1% of
malls31,32
• 6.4 % of total expenditure, but only 5 .6% of telecom
centres31,32
ese aps s est si nificant scope for ndia nc to reac
consumers that have been heretofore untapped.
18 | India’ s growth paradigm
The greatest
opportunities for
marginal revenue
growth lie in the
30 additional new
wave cities
it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of Ur an e e opment orta
raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis
it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia
33. EY Analysis
DEL
BNG
MUM
H YD
CH EN
KOLK
J PRPUNE
SURT
AH M
VIZ
LUCK
CH ND
VAD
KANP
INDR
NAGP
PATN
BH OP
TRV
J BLP
VIJ Y
KOTA
RAIP
AMRT
LUDH
RAJ K
RNCH
J ODH
NASH
KOCH ALLH
GWAL
DH RD
MYS
J MSH
J ALN
AGRA
BH UB
GUW
AURA
COIMB
VARAN
TRCHMRUT
DH NB
KOZ H
MADU
H UBL
WRNG
6 .5 %
7 .5 %
8 .5 %
9 .5 %
1 0 .5 %
1 1 .5 %
5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0
ProjectedrealannualGDPgrowth(percentage,2015-2020)
U ntapped market potential (index , 2016)
Marginal growth opportunities33
Size of bubble denotes
total 2015 population
H igher-growth markets,
that are under-tapped
Median
Median
India’ s growth paradigm | 19
We have evaluated each market across four dimensions-size, future growth prospects, level of untapped potential and media
depth. The market values are presented here.
Overall ranking34
Market potential value of 5 0 Indian cities
P arameter W eight
Addressable market size ( 5 0% )
Growth prospects ( 20% )
Untapped potential ( 20% )
Media depth ( 10% )
11th
-20th
high
potentialmarkets30additionalnewwavemarketsTop-10markets
5
3
2
8
8
7
8
6
6
9
8
10
7
5
13
8
8
5
8
7
12
11
8
9
8
11
12
10
9
13
15
11
17
19
18
20
16
14
21
21
27
24
25
30
28
33
39
4 4
4 6
5 0
11
14
12
12
12
11
11
13
11
12
12
14
11
17
10
19
13
16
15
16
13
13
15
14
15
14
12
16
18
14
15
18
14
12
17
12
12
20
12
14
15
14
18
10
14
11
15
14
14
11
12
14
17
13
13
17
15
15
17
14
14
15
20
17
15
11
17
17
14
17
16
17
17
18
19
18
19
20
18
19
16
19
16
18
13
15
17
18
17
18
12
16
15
17
15
15
16
12
15
14
5
4
6
5
7
4
6
6
6
6
7
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
9
5
6
6
6
6
6
5
8
6
6
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
10
6
7
5
5
8
4
6
8
7
7
8
8
9
33
35
38
39
39
39
4 0
4 0
4 1
4 1
4 1
4 3
4 3
4 3
4 4
4 4
4 5
4 5
4 5
4 6
4 6
4 6
4 6
4 8
4 8
4 8
5 1
5 1
5 1
5 1
5 2
5 3
5 3
5 3
5 4
5 4
5 5
5 7
5 7
5 8
60
62
62
62
65
65
76
78
83
83
MADU
H UBL
KOZ H
GUW
COIMB
DH NB
MRUT
VARAN
TRCH
AURA
J ALN
AGRA
J MSH
WRNG
LUDH
BH UB
MYS
DH RD
KOCH
GWAL
NASH
AMRT
ALLH
J ODH
RNCH
RAJ K
TRV
KOTA
RAIP
VIJ Y
BH OP
J BLP
VAD
KANP
INDR
NAGP
CH ND
PATN
LUCK
VIZ
AH M
J PR
SURT
KOLK
PUNE
CH EN
H YD
DEL
BNG
MUM
20 | India’ s growth paradigm
34 . EY Analysis
Note: Values are on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being the highest
Rankings by growth prospects34
Rankings by untapped potential34
India’ s growth paradigm | 21
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
20
20
BH UB
DEL
MADU
AH M
COIMB
INDR
GUW
AURA
MUM
KOCH
H UBL
J ALN
BNG
AGRA
CH EN
VARAN
MRUT
LUDH
PUNE
SURT
NAGP
NASH
BH OP
H YD
J PR
VAD
KOLK
CH ND
AMRT
WRNG
LUCK
DH NB
MYS
DH RD
GWAL
KOZ H
TRCH
ALLH
PATN
RAIP
KANP
RAJ K
VIZ
J ODH
VIJ Y
J BLP
RNCH
TRV
KOTA
J MSH
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
17
17
18
18
18
19
20
KOLK
LUDH
MUM
DH NB
MADU
CH EN
J MSH
MRUT
TRCH
TRV
COIMB
AURA
J ALN
CH ND
KANP
GUW
LUCK
KOZ H
NAGP
VARAN
AMRT
NASH
MYS
DEL
H UBL
AGRA
VAD
J PR
J ODH
RAJ K
BNG
PUNE
VIJ Y
VIZ
RNCH
H YD
BH OP
KOCH
AH M
ALLH
KOTA
DH RD
GWAL
INDR
WRNG
SURT
J BLP
RAIP
BH UB
PATN
Note: Values are on a 1-20 scale, with 20 being the highest Note: Values are on a 1-20 scale, with 20 being the highest
Untapped
potential
3
As India Inc. deepens its
reach into a new set of urban
markets, it becomes crucial
to understand which under-
saturated hotspots can drive
future growth. To identify
these untapped markets, we
have evaluated whether each
city’ s supply-side market
penetration e per capita
penetration of retail outlets,
malls, banks, telecom centres
etc.) is proportional to its level
of demand-side consumption
e per capita spend on
c ot in ed cation etc
Major advertiser segments have
been assessed in this way.
e find t at t e reatest aps
between consumption and
supply-side penetration lie in
smaller new wave cities, and
these disparities highlight the
opportunities for businesses
to expand beyond the major
centres and plug this gap.
India’ s growth paradigm | 23
Retail, fashion
and durables
andi ar Kota
Dehradun Kozhikode
J abalpur Trivandrum
J amshedpur Vijayawada
Kolkata Vizag
Allahabad J amshedpur
andi ar J odhpur
Dehradun Lucknow
Guwahati Patna
J aipur Ranchi
J aipur Raipur
J amshedpur Trivandrum
Kota Vadodara
Mysore Vijayawada
Nagpur Vizag
Bhopal Lucknow
Bhubaneswar Patna
Indore Trivandrum
J alandhar Vijayawada
Kanpur Vizag
Indore Pune
J odhpur Raipur
Kanpur Vijayawada
Kota Vizag
Mysore Warangal
Agra J odhpur
Bhopal Kota
Dhanbad Lucknow
Indore Raipur
J aipur Ranchi
Agra Rajkot
Ahmedabad Ranchi
Allahabad Surat
Kozhikode Vijayawada
Nashik Warangal
B FSI and
Real E state
T elecom
and D T H
E -commerce
E ducation
T op-10 untapped markets36
2016e A d spend (INR bn)35
FMC G
14 6
4 9
4 0
56
4 4
24
24 + 22
A uto
35 . EY industry discussions and analysis on media spends
36. EY analysis
MUM
DEL
BNG
H YD
AH MSURT
CH EN
J PR
PUNE
KOLK
VIZ
VIJ Y
KOTA
J BLP
CH ND
TRV
J MSH
DH RD
KOZ H
Size of bubble denotes
total 2015 population
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80
AnnualexpenditurepercapitaonFMCG(INR000s,2015)
P enetration of retail outlets (index , 2016)
Market trends: FMC G 39
Under-tapped
markets
2016e A d spend: FMC G
74 %
19 %
1%
6%
INR 14 6bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Untapped potential
The steady rise of modern trade channels and disposable incomes
pro ide a stron p atform for ndia s ind str pro ected to
grow 6% -8% annually till 202037
. While consumption has been
sluggish in recent years, particularly in rural areas, a normal
monsoon in 2016 is expected to increase demand37
. Meanwhile,
the continuing strength of urban clusters has seen brands focus
on new products/variants in urban-centric categories, and as these
consumers move up the economic ladder, there is a burgeoning
demand for premium products38
. Given these consumption trends,
and amid a fierce competiti e marketp ace it ecomes imperati e
for companies to tap under-saturated markets.
T op-10 untapped markets: andi ar e rad n a a p r
J amshedpur, Kolkata, Kota, Kozhikode, Trivandrum, Vijayawada, Vizag
37. EY Analysis
ector er ie ndia rand it o ndation an s ro t stor taperin siness tandard an nticipate it na tics e
t re of ie sen o ind str disc ssions
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia
na sis enetration defined as per capita per s km densit of retai o t ets
24 | India’ s growth paradigm
a es of ater oft rinks on- ar onated rinks ie sen ata ase
“ The growing consumption power of urban India has led to
two key trends in the industry-eating out and healthy foods.
These have driven growth for us in categories like branded
Basmati rice. Similarly, brown rice was unheard of 10 years
ago, but as consumers became more health conscious,
sales for this premium product rose ten-fold in just a few
years. As consumers keep moving up the value chain and
experimenting, alternative and higher-end categories will
continue to drive growth.
While consumption patterns are similar across metros and
Tier II/III markets, there is a stark gap on the supply-side.
Given the strong footprint of modern retail in metros, and
with new entrants typically focused on these cities, Tier II/
III markets are under-saturated. With scope to expand, the
share of shops covered by LT Foods’ distribution network
in ier cities rose - times o er t e past fi e ears
Given these trends, 4 2 Tier II/III markets’ share of our sales
rose from to o er a fi e- ear period- it markets
registering 3% higher annual growth relative to metros.”
ario s companies findin metros and mini-metros
saturated, have targeted rural areas at the bottom of the
pyramid. In the process, many Tier II/III markets have been
under-tapped. In fact, a recent study conducted by us
showed continuing Tier II/III outlets had 10% higher growth
y-o-y relative to metros. These cities are brimming with
aspirational consumers, and the marketing of products
centres aro nd rand a areness and cons mer-p
re ati e to t e prod ct-p s approac in metros
simi ar market ap as emer ed in distri tion r ani ed
retail, which only contributes ~ 10% of the market, has faced
issues with throughput, costly real estate and distribution
for thousands of SKUs. This reality is not likely to change in
the short to medium-term. H owever, there are opportunities
to expand in smaller stores with monthly sales of INR 5 -10
lakh. But this requires a shift in mindset-to move from
the traditional focus on distribution costs to a focus on
t ro p t and o era profit and oss
V ivek C h andra
o a rands siness
Ab h inav J ain
Founder and Director
L T F oods L td. B eacon Anal ytics
C oca- C ol a L td.
P rash ant P aramesw aran
Director, Marketing Strategy and Insights
India
“ With millions of consumers yet to be tapped in Tier II/
III markets, brands are expanding distribution networks
and micro-targeting consumption pockets. As a result,
while the industry experienced a slowdown in major
metros in the past few years, less saturated untapped
Tier II/III cities have shown faster growth. Today, the
share of our business from urban cities beyond the top-
8 metros has grown to ~ 30% , relative to ~ 25 % from the
top-8 markets.
While organized retail has faced challenges beyond the
top 15 -20 cities, these are often related to mindsets,
more than any logistical hurdle. As a result, amid
growing competition from regional players, expansion into
Tier II/III cities is set to continue. These markets will continue
evolving, with trends like premiumisation driving growth in
categories like juices and milk-based products.”
8 metros
5 8 tier
II/III cities
Industry sales value of non-alcoholic beverages
(select cities, INR bn)4 0
60.6% 60.4 % 5 9 .9 %
39 .4 % 39 .6% 4 0.1%
FY14 FY15 FY16
5 0.7bn 5 4 .0bn5 1.2bn
Untapped potential
India’ s retail sector is set to continue its double-digit growth on
the back of rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization and
the growth of organized and internet retailing. Fashion ( apparel
and footwear) is the largest segment in Indian organized retail
and t is market is pro ected to ro at a ea t of
during 2015 -2020 from ~ INR 4 trn in 2015 4 1
. While organized
retail’ s share of the national market is projected to rise from
~ 10% today to ~ 16% by 2020, many new wave cities remain
nder-penetrated and rid of ine on ine distri tion mode s
are becoming increasingly popular4 1,4 2
. Given the millions of
aspirational consumers in these markets and their appetite for
rands t e ntapped opport nit is si nificant
T op-10 untapped markets: J aipur, J amshedpur, Kota, Mysore,
Nagpur, Raipur, Trivandrum, Vadodara, Vijayawada, Vizag
Under-tapped
markets MUM
DEL
BNG
H YD AH M
SURT
CH EN
KOLK
PUNE
J PR
NAGP
VIZ
VAD
VIJ YRAIP
KOTA
MYS
TRV
J MSH
-
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80
Size of bubble denotes
total 2015 population
Annualexpenditurepercapitaonclothing,footwearand
appliances(INR000s,2015)
P enetration of malls (index , 2016)
Market trends: Retail, fashion and durables4 3
4 1. EY Analysis
etai etrospect ein ent e rite etai ers ssociation of ndia e ear at ndia s e ai nno nced ts rri a ec nopak
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia
na sis enetration defined as per capita per s km densit of ma s
2016e Ad spend: Retail, fashion and durables
31%
5 0%
4 %
15 %
INR 56bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Retail, fashion and durables
26 | India’ s growth paradigm
“ The Indian smartphone segment has grown nearly ten-
fold over the last 5 years, with 103.6mn shipments in
2015 . While metros have provided the initial growth, the
next wave of growth will come from Tier II/III consumers
migrating from feature phones.
Affordability is set to drive growth, with the average
selling price of a smartphone nearly halving in the last
fi e ears to U in ea in estment of
telecom operators into new infrastructure will also boost
demand, with 4 G models already comprising over 60%
of smartphone shipments in Q 2’ 16. Lastly, given that
smartphone penetration in India remains below 30% -
t ere is a si nificant market et to e tapped
“ While we have a strong presence in metropolitan cities,
we are increasingly extending our signature bridge-to-
luxury experience to Tier II/III cities as well. This strategy
is emblematic of the aspirations and concomitant buying
power which exists in such markets.
f co rse ier markets come it a certain set of
challenges too. For instance, such markets are often
heavily reliant on their local high-streets and are not very
accustomed to the department store experience and/
or o r rand e it n s c cases e make si nificant
investments in building the brand and establishing a local
connect with the community. To further connect with our
customers, we aim to have staff conversant in both English
and vernacular, as older Tier II/III customers in particular
have a preference for local languages.”
G ovind S h rik h ande
Managing Director
N avk endar S ing h
H ead Mobile Devices Research
India and South Asia
H y brid distribution strategies in T ier II/ III cities
n ine c anne s compe in a e proposition in terms
of price, convenience and product range has led to 29 %
of smartphones being shipped online today. H owever,
with vendors looking to make deeper inroads into
smaller towns, online exclusive models are being made
a ai a e of ine too
I nternational D ata C orp orationS h op p ers S top L td.
Tier
II/III cities
metros and
surrounding
cities
Number of Shoppers Stop stores4 4
28
4 6
11
35
Mar 2011 J un 2016
20 tier
II/III cities
8 metros
Smartphone shipment breakup (select cities, mn)4 5
73% 71% 70%
27% 29 % 30%
11.8mn 9 .8mn 10.8mn
Q 4 ' 15 Q 1 ' 16 Q 2 ' 16
4 4 . “ Q uarterly Performance Update” , Shoppers Stop, 2011-16
ont it - e e martp one racker -
Untapped potential
The Indian auto industry has immense growth potential owing to its
unique demographic dividend and low penetration levels ( India’ s car
penetration of ~ 32 per 1000 people is just 4 % -6% of most European
markets as well as the US) . As a result, domestic passenger vehicle
sales in India are expected to grow robustly at 9 % -11% annually
from 2015 -20 to reach 4 .0-4 .5 mn units by 2020. Growth will be
nearly as strong in the two-wheeler segment, which will grow at
8% – 10% annually from 2015 -2020 to reach ~ 25 mn units by 2020.
With auto makers looking to tap into these growth opportunities,
several new wave cities are particularly under penetrated.
T op-10 untapped markets: Indore, J odhpur, Kanpur, Kota,
Mysore, Pune, Raipur, Vijayawada, Vizag, Warangal
MUM
BNG
DEL
H YD
CH EN
AH M
SURT
KOLK
J PR
PUNE
VIZ
KANP
INDR
VIJ Y
RAIP
KOTA
J ODH
MYS
WRNG
Size of bubble denotes total households
with an annual income > INR 0.5 mn
Autodemandpotential(index,2013-16composite)
% of households with a car (percentage, 2015)
Market trends: Au to (4 -wheelers)4 7
Under-tapped markets for first-time car
buyers. Given current income levels,
road density and ( un) availibility of
metro-rails, these markets' car
ownership rates have not yet reached
expected industry levels.
25
35
4 5
5 5
65
75
85
9 5
4 % 8% 12% 16% 20% 24 %
4 6. “ Domestic Sales Trends” , Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, 2016; “ Road Transport Yearbook” , Ministry of Road Transport & H ighways, 2014 ; EY Analysis
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia
Government metro rail portals, 2016; EY Analysis. ( Demand potential combines % of population with an annual income > INR 0.5 mn, motorable roads per sq. km.,
availability of metro rails) .
2016e A d spend: A uto
34 %
5 1%
3%
13%
INR 4 9bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Auto4 6
28 | India’ s growth paradigm
4 8. “ Luxury car sales to double by 2020- IH S Automotive” , Business Standard, Feb.2016; “ Audi targets Tier II/III cities to spur growth” , ET, J un.2016; “ Luxury carmakers
drive down new retail ways” , Business Standard, Aug.2016; EY industry discussions
4 9 . “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis
L eading 2 - w h eel er manuf acturer
ons mer e pectations of prod cts as e as t e
price points do not vary by the tier of city. H owever, the
nature of demand for 2-wheelers in metros tends towards
rep acement ereas t ere are more first-time ers
in Tier II/III cities. This lower saturation in Tier II/III cities
relative to metros results in 3-4 % higher sales growth.
Another difference is that with lower real estate costs in
Tier II/III markets, showrooms are often larger, and can be
put in more prime locations as attractions.”
N ational S trateg y H ead
Indian 2-wheeler manufacturer
“ Tier II/III cities are showing great potential, with
mobility often the primary use case of smartphones in
such markets. Rising smartphone penetration and 4 G
connectivity are driving this growth, and cities like J aipur,
andi ar and atna are emer in as t e metros of
tomorrow. As Tier II/III cities typically have less ready
supply chain elements relative to metros, supply creation
becomes more crucial than supply aggregation. To ensure
s staina i it as t erefore ooked to de e op a oca
ecosystem in these cities by hosting driver meets, helping
drivers procure commercial licenses, as well as having a
oca office in eac market
O L A
K ey initiatives to reach T ier II/ III consumers
• panded o -cost a ternati e icro to cities in
2016-achieved the same number of rides in a month as
took ears to do
• Expanded the app to 9 vernacular languages
• Launched lite-version of the app, which functions using
fewer data points
Anand S ub ramanian
enior irector arketin omm nications
Market trends: L ux ury cars4 8,4 9
India’ s luxury car segment grew to an estimated 35 ,300
units in 2015 -more than double of 2010 volumes. Much of
the growth has come from new wave cities, whose share of
t e market as no reac ed - n t e ack of more
product introductions at the entry-level and a ramp-up of
dealer networks across Tier II/III cities, sales are expected to
double again by 2020.
Mobile showrooms have
been initiated by Audi
and BMW, with tours
across cities including
Patna, Kota and Agra
New wave markets’
share of total sales
in India’ s luxury cars
segment
~ 33%
New wave cities annual
sales growth of luxury
cars ( roughly triple that
of metros)
~ 25 %
Split between new wave
cities and metros for
~ 1.5 mn households with
annual incomes over INR
5 mn
38%
Untapped potential
India has grown to the world’ s second largest telecom market,
with 624 mn urban subscribers alone. As the cost of smartphones
and data fall rapidly and given that voice services have already
achieved deep penetration, the next wave of growth is expected
to come from data services. By 2020, wireless data is expected to
comprise nearly 4 6% of the sector’ s gross revenue, while video’ s
s are of mo i e traffic i rise to s operators ro -o t
infrastructure in an aggressive pursuit for subscribers and a
piece of t is ro t reac in af ent nderpenetrated markets
becomes key.
T op-10 untapped markets: a a ad andi ar e rad n
Guwahati, J aipur, J amshedpur, J odhpur, Lucknow, Patna, Ranchi
MUM
DEL
BNG
H YD
AH M
SURT
CH EN
KOLK
PUNE
J PR
LUCK
PATN
ALLHRNCH
J ODH
GUW
CH ND
J MSH
DH RD
-
Size of bubble denotes total
2015 population
Annualexpenditurepercapitaandinternetusage
(index,composite2011-16)
P enetration of telecom service centres and 4 G availibility (index , 2016)
Market trends: T elecom5 1
Under-tapped markets
10
20
30
4 0
5 0
60
70
80
9 0
10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 9 0
5 0. “ Q uarterly Indicators” , Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Sep.2016; EY Analysis
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia
r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e ace ook d atform te ecom operator p ic porta s na sis enetration defined as per capita
per s km densit of te ecom centres a ai a i it of top- operators considered as of ct
2016e Ad spend: T elecom and D T H
5 5 %
14 %
2%
29 %
INR 4 4 bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Telecom and DTH
5 0
30 | India’ s growth paradigm
“ Within the same circle, Tier II/III subscriber bases are
growing roughly 1.6x as fast as in metros.“
T ier II/ III telecom user traits vs metro users
• Similar voice usage
• Lower data consumption overall, but higher on
mo i e as fi ed ser ices not readi a ai a e
• More time spent on utility/messaging apps and less
on entertainment/videos
• ompara e mont rec ar e a e t o er
average ticket size
• Spend in smaller sachets not lump-sums, and favor
pre-paid connections
• Prefer physical stores for recharges/inquiries
L eading Tel ecom O p erator
N ational P roduct H ead
ndian e ecom perator
“ We see revenues growing faster in Tier II/III cities as
penetration rises, and there are interesting variations
in consumer behaviour across metros and Tier II/III
markets. While voice usage is rising in both sets of cities,
it is data growth which will require us to understand
consumers even more intimately. For instance, we have
seen that data usage leans towards utility in Tier II/III
markets, whereas metro users consume more videos/
entertainment. Given the rise of vernacular content and
improving smartphone penetration, the next frontier
of growth will come from players who can demonstrate
compelling use cases for Internet.”
V odaf one L td.
S iddh arth B anerj ee
SVP-Marketing and H ead of Brand,
Insights, Activation and Digital
India
“ The growth of H D penetration and consumption is the big
story in today’ s broadcasting industry. While H D penetration
it respect to t e nationa ase is at it is
within the paid DTH base. As technology and hardware
costs fall, we can expect a greater number of H D channel
launches and a higher contribution to viewership.
n terms of ier markets t ese cities era e e en e
Per User has grown 7% y-o-y, 1-2% higher than in metros.
The other key difference is the preference towards DTH ,
with penetration among TV households at 4 4 % relative
to 35 % in metros. The attractive seasonal offers by DTH
players, strategic consumer lock-in periods and intelligent
channel packaging have further driven DTH growth in Tier
II/III cities. With the lowering of base pack prices across all
pro iders is fi tin ead on it di ita ca e in
terms of price points too. “
C h rome D M
P ank aj K rish na
Founder
Market T rends: D T H 5 2
DTH penetration in new wave cities has risen from 29 % in
2014 to 4 5 % in 2016, and markets like Varanasi, Allahabad
and J amshedpur remain under-tapped.
9 4 %
69 %
63%
62%
61%
60%
5 9 %
5 6%
5 2%
5 2%
4 9 %
4 6%
4 6%
4 5 %
4 5 %
37%
26%
10%
DH RD
DH NB
GUW
RAIP
VIJ Y
MADU
TRV
WRNG
AVG
KOZ H
TRCH
J ALN
KOTA
H UBL
GWAL
BH UB
KOCH
J MSH
% T V homes with D T H :
D A S ph-III cities
76%
70%
66%
64 %
61%
5 9 %
5 4 %
5 3%
5 2%
4 7%
4 7%
4 7%
4 7%
4 5 %
4 2%
34 %
32%
30%
28%
28%
26%
21%
18%
16%
14 %
5 %
AURA
J BLP
NASH
J PR
INDR
NAGP
BH OP
RNCH
AMRT
J ODH
RAJ K
SURT
VAD
LUDH
AVG
MRUT
PATN
CH ND
AGRA
LUCK
COIMB
MYS
KANP
VIZ
ALLH
VARAN
% T V homes with D T H :
D A S ph-II cities
ome racker rome na sis
Untapped potential
India’ s e-commerce industry, estimated to have reached INR
2100bn by end-2016, is projected to continue its rapid growth
and quadruple in size by 20205 3
. Roughly 65 % of e-commerce
sales today are being transacted through mobile devices, and
this share is expected to increase to over 70% by 20205 4
. While
rising middle-class incomes, smartphone adoption and developing
3G/4 G infrastructure will drive growth in this industry, some
challenges with last-mile delivery remain. As the industry expands
supply-chain networks beyond metros, identifying large viable
markets with high purchasing power and internet usage becomes
a priority.
T op-10 untapped markets: Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Indore,
J alandhar, Kanpur, Lucknow, Patna, Trivandrum, Vijayawada,
Vizag
AH M
BNG
CH EN
DEL
H YD
J PR
KOLK
MUM
PUNE
SURT
AMRT
CH ND
DH RD
LUDH
MYS
NAGP
VAD
COIMB
KOZ H
BH OP
BH UB
INDR
J ALN
J MSH
KOCH
LUCK
PATN
TRV
VIJ Y
VIZ
80
100
120
14 0
160
180
200
220
24 0
20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 9 0
Size of bubble denotes total
2015 population 20-39 y
Annualexpenditurepercapita(INR000s,2015)
Internet usage (index , 2011-16 composite)
Market trends: E -commerce5 5
H ighlighted markets have the highest
e-demand potential after the top-10
cities, but e-commerce supply-chains
can be limited in these areas
i ita ommerce eport n o a - ommerce itepaper - orrester a na sis
t re of nternet in ndia - kamai
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e
Facebook Ad Platform, 2016; EY Analysis
2016e Ad spend: E -commerce
24 %
3%
39 % INR 4 0bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
34 %
E-commerce
32 | India’ s growth paradigm
“ E-commerce solves the big problem of access and
a ai a i it for peop e in non-metro areas er of
order volumes on Snapdeal, come from Tier II/III cities.
This indicates an evolution in consumer behaviour
and expectations, leading to the growing adoption of
e-commerce as a habit in these regions.”
Initiatives taken to target T ier II/ III consumers
• napdea as e panded to f fi ment centres
across 25 cities-its fast delivery service SD+ now
makes up 80% of orders, up from 7% in early-2015 .
This has allowed it to shorten delivery times in Tier
II/III cities to ~ 6 days
• nap ite a mo i e-centric ersion t at is i ter
in terms of bandwidth, providing a faster web
experience in areas with slower network connectivity
• Snapdeal launched a multilingual platform in 11
regional languages in December 2015
T ier II/ III E -commerce consumer traits
• Very aspirational but have limited access to brands
and products
• re-dominant mo i e traffic app t sers
can experience limited data connectivity
• Prefer platforms in native languages
• refer o as an pa ment option t rapid adoption
of digital wallets
• North-East ( including Guwahati) makes up for 6% of
sales, and 12% in fashion
ons mption patterns of o r ier c stomers differ
to those in metros. They tend to favour the mobile
channel, and due to a leisure-skew ( vs. corporate) , have
longer stays, more passengers per booking and more
advance bookings. This results in Tier II/III users having
higher transaction values vs metros.”
S nap deal C l eartrip
J ayant S ood
ief stomer perience fficer
Aditya Ag arw al
ead orporate trate
“ The ( INR 780bn5 7
) used-goods segment is driven by used
mobiles, electronics, furniture, cars and 2-wheelers, and
other household items. The share of listings from Tier II/III
cities for many of these categories has increased from 35 %
three years ago to almost 5 0% today. While consumption
patterns and popular categories are more or less similar
for Tier II/III and metro users, the growth of mobile as a
category has been exceptional in Tier II/III markets as a
result of growing consumer aspirations, and the availability
of reasonably priced and good quality mobile phones on
ome of t e ot er pcomin cate ories from ier
cities on are tractors catt e and a ric t ra
equipment.”
O L X
Amarj it S ing h B atra
ndia
H igh potential T ier II/ III used-good marketplaces
• J aipur
• Surat
• Lucknow
• Kochi
• Aurangabad
• oim atore
• Trivandrum
• Vadodara
eartrip -
r st r e ndians stock s cr ort
unused goods” , Business Standard, Aug.2016
Metros
Tier
II/III cities
% of C leartrip volumes56
5 3% 4 5 %
4 7% 5 5 % 65 % 71%
Air H otel
35 % 29 %
FY11 FY16 FY11 FY16
Untapped potential
India’ s education sector comprises more than 1.4 mn schools
( enrolling more than 227mn students) , 36,000 higher education
institutes and 18,000 vocational training centres5 8
. Demand
in this sector will be robust, with India set to have the world’ s
largest tertiary-age population and second-largest graduate
talent pipeline by 20205 9
. Foreign investment is also expected
to pick up in this space, given the lack of FDI caps and a recent
draft education policy that looks to encourage collaborations
with the world’ s top 200 universities. While educational bodies
are largely local in nature, identifying large growth hotspots
can help education service providers tap into higher-potential
opportunities.
T op-10 untapped markets: Agra, Bhopal, Dhanbad, Indore,
J aipur, J odhpur, Kota, Lucknow, Raipur, Ranchi
DEL
MUM
BNG
H YD
AH M
SURT
CH EN
J PR
KOLK
PUNE
LUCK
INDR
AGRA
BH OP AURA
DH NB
RNCH
RAIP
ALLH
KOTA
J ODH
Size of bubble denotes total
2015 population < 20y
%ofexistingschoolsestablishedsince
2001(percentage,2001-15)
% of population < 20y (percentage, 2015)
Market trends: E ducation60
The fastest growing education ecosystems
have naturally occurred in the youngest
cities- and these markets will continue to
present opportunities for growth
5 %
10%
15 %
20%
25 %
30%
35 %
4 0%
4 5 %
5 0%
25 % 30% 35 % 4 0% 4 5 %
5 8. “ Industry and sectors – Education,” Ministry of External Affairs website, Government of India
5 9 . EY Analysis
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs c oo s esta is ed since istrict nformation
System for Education, 2015 ; EY Analysis
2016e A d spend: E ducation
11%
78%
3% 9 %
INR 24 bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Education
34 | India’ s growth paradigm
“ Much of our traditional business continues to come from
Tier II/III markets, and we are seeing more distributors
setting up in these cities. There is greater saturation of
schools in metros, with the unavailability of land becoming
a particular challenge on the cost-side. As a result, the
industry is seeing 5 -8% higher growth in many Tier II/III
markets relative to metros.”
S .C h and G roup
Saurabh Mittal
Chief Finance Officer
D ifferences in T ier II/ III markets vs metros
• ons mption does not ar m c cit -tier as
curriculum, subjects, prescribed books etc. are similar,
but higher growth markets include J aipur, Ranchi, Agra
• Trend of Tier II/III schools/students moving from state
exams in vernacular to central examinations in English
• Tier II/III distribution is often more dependent on dealer
networks, whereas metros require more direct tie-ups
• Due to higher fees per student, metros face greater
government regulation of price hikes, while Tier II/III
areas have greater capacity to absorb such increases
“ The aspiration of parents and students are the major driver
for education services, more so than paying capacity. The
focus of parents, whether in cosmopolitan metros or in Tier
II/III cities, is on the quality of the best available schooling
right from an early age. The awareness and exposure to
major prestigious examinations has been on the rise across
Tier II/III markets. As a result, enrolments in Tier II/III
markets are substantial, and comprise 60-65 % of our total
enrolments.”
F I I TJ EE L td.
R. L . T rikha
D irector
H igh growth markets include:
Market T rends: E ducation Spends61
Unlike expenditures on most other goods, a household’ s
spend on education is not closely tied to overall paying
capacity. While households in the top-8 metros typically
a ocate of tota e pendit re to ed cation t e fi re
is 3-4 % for the new wave cities below. Apart from being
younger, higher-growth markets in the future, such
cities already present sizable opportunities for education
service providers today.
T op-20 cities: An nual ex penditure on
education per household (INR 000s' s, 2015)
30.8
27.5
25 .6
25 .3
22.2
19 .9
19 .6
19 .3
18.9
18.5
18.1
17.8
17.7
17.5
17.4
16.7
16.7
16.1
15 .9
15 .6
CH ND
VIZ
LUCK
INDR
J PR
MRUT
H YD
DH RD
TRV
BNG
KOTA
CH EN
J ODH
BH OP
DEL
MUM
KANP
PATN
KOLK
RAIP
Metros
New wave
cities
• J aipur
• Lucknow
• Vijayawada
• Ranchi
• Kota
• Bhopal
• Bihar
• dis a
• H aryana
61.“ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis
Untapped potential
The value of deposits and credits in India’ s Scheduled
ommercia ank ranc es s as tre ed since 62
.
i en demoneti ation t e ro t of forma financia c anne s
particularly digital services and mobile wallets, is set to continue.
While the quantum of activity is driven by the top metros, various
other high-growth hotspots have emerged.
T op-10 untapped markets: Agra, Ahmedabad, Allahabad,
Kozhikode, Nashik, Rajkot, Ranchi, Surat, Vijayawada, Warangal
MUM
DEL
BNG
H YD
CH EN
PUNE
KOLK
J PR
AH M
SURT
RNCH
RAJ K
AGRA
VIJ Y
NASH
ALLH
KOZ H
WRNG
Size of bubble denotes total Q 4
2016 SCB deposits and credits
5yCAGR%ofnominalvalueofSCBdeposits+credits
(percentage,FY12-16)
5y C A G R % of total SC B branches (percentage, FY 12-16)
Market trends: B FSI62
Under-tapped markets
6%
8%
10%
12%
14 %
16%
18%
2% 3% 4 % 5 % 6% 7% 8% 9 % 10%
“ Kotak’ s share of branches in the top-8 metros has reduced
to toda from fi e ears a o it t e ne t
Tier II/III cities making up 16% -18% . H igh potential cities
include state capitals Ranchi and Raipur, as well as cities
like Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot. While Kotak’ s services
remain similar across markets, we have seen differences
in consumer patterns. Tier II/III customers still prefer
physical branches with ~ 35 % of customers using online
services vs ~ 5 5 % in metros. But Tier II/III is showing faster
digital adoption, especially on mobiles. As Tier II/III cities
move from savings to investment, we are also seeing sales
of mutual funds and insurance products catch up with
traditiona prod cts ike fi ed deposits
V irat D iw anj i
Executive Vice President and H ead
Branch Banking
K otak M ah indra B ankBFSI
36 | India’ s growth paradigm
arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s eser e ank of ndia - na sis
2016e A d spend: B FSI
31%
6%
36%
INR 24 bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
27%
Untapped potential
31% 33% 34 % 34 % 34 % 37% 39 % 4 0% 4 0% 4 1% 4 1% 4 1% 4 2% 4 6% 5 0% 5 1% 5 2% 5 4 % 5 5 % 5 8%
T op-20 new wave cities: Share of households without home ownership (percentage, 2011-13)65
C hange in residential housing prices (index 2007 = 100, 2007-15)67
88 9 7 102 115 14 5 160 163 163 168 168 169 173 179 187 188 19 0 19 0 19 5 200 212 215 238 239 25 1
364
Metros
New wave
cities
Market T rends: Real E state
The real estate markets in new wave cities are maturing, as consumers move up the value chain from rentals to ownership.
ota t e fi e markets it t e o est rates of o ners ip are in ami ad and nd ra rades -and ma present ntapped
opport nities for ome finance
Apart from demand, prices are also driven by a lack of supply/execution delays, as reported in high-growth Bhopal and Lucknow66
- markets where there is scope for local developers to further expand footprints.
Indian real estate markets are on a healthy long-run growth path,
and will grow at 6-7% annually till 202063
. Government initiatives
ike mart ities and U are e pected to oost p ic f ndin
for housing, reforms to REITs will accelerate private investment
and the home-buyer protection bill RERA is expected to raise
cons mer confidence e stron ro t of credit faci ities i
also continue to drive demand. In the short-term however, de-
monetization is expected to have an impact and some markets
may fall up to 30% in 201764
. Amid this volatility, some macro
trends and longer-run movements are outlined for various cities.
63. “ India Real Estate Report 2016,” BMI Research, 2016; EY Analysis
64 . “ H ousing Prices to Drop” , ET, Nov.2016
ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e na sis
op ndian ities to n est n ct
an e in re ate esidentia o sin rices ationa o sin ank eside -
e ke dri ers for rea estate and o sin finance is
the creation of jobs, while infrastructure like transport
networks and power also play a major role. Supply-side
follows demand-the shift from renting to ownership primarily
occurs with rising disposable incomes created by better job
opportunities.
Today, the top-8 metros account for roughly 70% of home
loans, but there is increasing traction coming from Tier II/
III cities. H igh potential markets include state capitals Raipur
and Dehradun, along with cities in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil
ad ike i a a ada and oim atore
C onrad D ’ S ouz a
Member of Executive Management
H D F C L td.- H ousing F inanceReal estate
India’ s growth paradigm | 37
2016e A d spend: Real estate
27%
4 7%
8%
18%
INR 22bn
TV
Print
Radio
Other
Optimizing
reach
4
India’ s media industry is thriving. TV digitization, rising vernacular
print circulation, smartphone adoption, FM radio auctions and
expansion of multiplexes are all boosting media consumption,
and have made India the world’ s fastest growing large advertising
market68, 69 , 70
. Buoyed by these drivers, the domestic ad industry
is expected to have reached INR 5 33bn in 2016, entering
t e or d s top- ad markets for t e first time68, 69
. While
demonetization is expected to have a short-term impact-roughly
INR ~ 15 bn of ad spends were deferred in 2016 following the
demonetization, the industry is expected to bounce back by Q 2
201771
. Backed by a robust economy and ongoing advertiser
efforts to reach untapped cities beyond metros, growth will
continue apace, and India is set to become the 6th
largest global
ad market by 202070
.
Indian advertising market (INR bn)69
131
218 24 2
187
200
137
21
19
12
2.6
75
28
21
5 .0
9 6
30
23
5 .8
322
533
597
2012 2016e 2017p
2017p G rowth
10.7% TV
7.3% Print
13.3% Radio
16.0% Cinema
28.6% Digital
8.2% OOH
13.4 %
CAGR%
12.0%
CAGR%
“ The Indian ad market is evolving, and we are seeing growth
of smaller cities, as well as new clients in regional markets.
Small town ad spend across all key mediums has grown at
a of more t an in t e ast ears re ati e to t e
nationa a era e is i et f rt er acce erated
with more small screens in the country than big screens and
digital leading the way, offering marketers more avenues to
reach audiences at scale.”
G roup M
T ushar V y as
ief trate fficer
South Asia
“ The media markets in Tier II/III cities are showing faster
growth relative to those in metros. The expansion of
meas rement into sma er to ns as e ped s ift
TV spends, while rapidly improving online connectivity is
broadening the digital marketplace in these cities.”
M /S I X
Raj it D esai
Principal Partner
arat or d d pend orecast ents - e is et ork n d pendit re orecast enit ptimedia ec
69 . EY industry discussions and analysis on media spends
70. “ World Media Spend Forecast” , IPG MagnaGlobal, J un.2016
i demonetisation impact on ad ertisin e s ort-term i emint ec itc adison d ertisin eport itc adison e
India’ s growth paradigm | 39
4 0 | India’ s growth paradigm
“ While TV has traditionally been a mass medium, various
trends are increasin makin it a oca one
• Market selection: atforms ike o rs are for t e first
time i in ad ertisers t e option to tar et specific
locales. These geo-targeting solutions have seen
si nificant ptake not on from nationa rands it
diverse customer bases, but regional SMEs/brands
looking to foray into TV ads.
• Niche content: Digitization is reducing analog
constraints, and broadcasters are leveraging this
by launching more niche channels and creating
pro rammin for specific se ments
• L anguage: metros and Tier II/III markets are largely
homogenous in terms of content preferences, but
differences are more pronounced at a regional level.
Vernacular content is strongest in the South, with
over 9 0% of viewership on regional channels. Marathi
and Bengali also have sizable audiences, garnering
30-5 0% of local viewership. After this there is a drop-
off, and other vernacular content has less than 10%
share of local markets.
When advertisers segment audiences like this-selecting
the right markets, right programming and right
languages for their messaging-they are often able to
realize a 2-3% rise in market share.”
Amag i M edia L ab s
B askar Subramanian
o- o nder
ome racker rome
enre- ise ie ers ip roadcast dience esearc o nci eek - eek
As digitization continues to roll out across India’ s 175 mn TV
households, the process has been largely completed in metros
and new wave cities ( barring a few markets in Tamil Nadu like
oim atore ric and ad rai 72
. This has bolstered both the
quantum of content ( as more channels and packages become
available) as well as its quality, with the rising proliferation of
H D channels. This digital conversion is also allowing marketers the
opportunity to break up a national TV audience into smaller target
a diences for t e first time s eo-tar etin p atforms emer e it
is no ecomin possi e to de i er messa es tai ored to specific
audiences at a regional, state and even city-level.
TV
“ In terms of audience segmentation, India’ s 6 mega-cities
and large urban clusters show similar viewership habits
with respect to genre preferences and time spent. Instead,
disparities are observed at the regional level. South Indian
markets are heavier on TV consumption, with viewers in
such states spending more time watching TV than the H SM
market. The other key difference is in preference for genres,
ere o t ndia s stron fi m c t re is re ected in i er
ie ers ip of fi ms o er seria s
B roadcast Audience R esearch C ouncil
P artho D asgupta
G enre-wise T V viewership73
FilmSerials News Other
4 7%
61%
5 6%
5 2%
21%
14 %
16%
17%
11%
8%
9 %
12%
21%
17%
19 %
19 %
5 south Indian
states
H indi-speaking
markets
' Big cities'
( 1mn-7.5 mn
population)
6 Metros
While TV consumption varies little across city-tiers, print skews towards
new wave cities. These markets in recent years recorded higher rates
of readership, circulation and circulation growth relative to metros.
o e er t is ske as not et een re ected in media p ans and -o-
growth of ad volumes has been ~ 2% for both sets of cities.
This trend of new wave markets achieving stronger circulation growth
relative to their ad volume is shown below at a city-level. For instance,
i e pro imate cities an a ore- sore e i- eer t and ennai-
oim atore re istered compara e o me ro t to one anot er t e
ne a e markets recorded si nificant i er ro t in readers
A similar growth differential can be seen when comparing large
markets such as J aipur, Lucknow and Patna to metros like Pune and
Kolkata. Given new wave markets’ higher circulation growth, as well as
economic growth prospects and untapped potential, there is scope for
media plans to be re-calibrated towards such cities.
Print
DEL
KOLK BNG
H YD
CH EN
PUNE
MUM
CH ND
VIZ
J BLP
NAGP
MADU
AH M
TRCH
VIJ Y
LUDH
J ALN
AMRT
H UBL DH NB
J PR
KANP
LUCK
VARAN
COIMB
KOCH
MRUT
TRV
RAIP
PATN
ALLH
KOTA
RNCH
J ODH
AGRA
GUW
J MSH
BH UB
GWAL
INDR
MYS
SURT
Size of bubble denotes
total 2015 circulation of
sample publications
AdvolumeCAGR%ofcontinuingpublications
(percentage,FY13-16)
C irculation C AG R% of continuing publications (percentage, 2012-15)
Market-wise print trends76, 77, 78
-5 %
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5 %
7%
9 %
11%
-8% -6% -4 % -2% 0% 2% 4 % 6% 8% 10% 12%
Positive circulation growth
61mn 62mn
8 Metros
4 2 new
wave cities
2015 city population74
37% 4 1%
2013 readership of
any publication75
7.5 mn 8.0mn 2015 circulation76
-2.5 % 2.9 %
2.0% 2.1%
2012-15 circulation
CAGR% ( of continuing
publications) 76, 78
2013-16 ad volume
CAGR% ( of continuing
publications) 77, 78
arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis
75 . “ Survey Results” , Indian Readership Survey, 2013; EY Analysis
irc ation of eported ications dit rea of irc ation -
77. “ Ad Volume of Reported Publications” , TAM Adex, FY13-16
78. Editions were only considered if both adex and circulation data was available-sample had a total circulation of 15 .3mn in 2015
India’ s growth paradigm | 4 1
Manish V ij
o nder and
SVG Media
The easy availability of sub-US$ 15 0 smartphones and rapidly
improving 3G/4 G infrastructure has allowed India’ s internet user
base to balloon to nearly 5 00mn today79 ,80
. The key trends in
this space include a heavy skew towards mobile, a surge in video
content and under-tapped content ecosystems for women and
vernacular languages.
Digital
“ The rapid rise of low-cost smartphones is allowing Tier II/
III and regional consumers to skip the traditional digital
evolution, and close the loop on mobile itself. It has resulted
in all digital mediums and cities to grow, particularly J aipur,
rat andi ar adodara ri andr m oc i ckno
satellite cities as well as state capitals, which tend to have
better digital infrastructure.”
S V G M edia
Initiatives taken to target T ier II/ III consumers
• Multi-lingual ads work especially well
• Emphasized messaging clarity, especially in non-H D
formats
• ser ed con ersion rates of - on media partners
that offer alternative mobile ecosystems ( browsers,
app stores, launchers) These native ecosystems play
a prominent role in user trust to download apps and
various forms of content
• Tier II/III users are keen to cut steps, and typically
close transactions faster on mobile ( i.e. more
tap-to-touch buyers)
Share of Indian internet users on mobile
in 2016, up from ~ 60% in 20138080%
ideos s are of cons mer nternet traffic
in 2020, up from 5 3% in 2015 8176%
Global share of online content that is
in Indian languages82< 0. 1%
Share of women internet users in 2020,
up from 25 % in 2013834 5%
70%
Share of users consuming vernacular
content in 2020, up from 4 5 % in 201383
23%
Share of Indian Facebook users that are
women, amongst the lowest rates in the
world83,84
nternet rends n
80. “ Mobile Internet in India” , Internet and Mobile Association of India, Feb.2016; EY Analysis
nn a is a et orkin nde isco
82. “ Proliferation of Indian Languages on Internet” , Internet and Mobile Association of India, Feb.2016
83. EY Analysis
84 . Facebook Ad Platform 2016
4 2 | India’ s growth paradigm
Manish V ij
o nder and
0 20 4 0 60 80 100 120 14 0 160 180 200
11th
- 20th
high
potential cities
50newwavecities
3 3 1 1
Jaipur and Surat 9 2
Other cities 7 9 4 9 5 7
30 additional
markets
7 1 1 9 8
2050
700
1650
2950
11150 8 metros 5 2 1 0 1
Number of FM radio frequencies85
Operational at end 2015
Sold in Ph- III auctions
( 1st
batch, Aug. 2015 )
Sold in Ph-III auctions
( 2nd
batch, Dec. 2016)
2015 radio market
size (INR mn)83
85 . “ Auction Results” , Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, 2015 /16; EY Analysis
FM radio continues to hold a unique niche in the Indian media
landscape. It is an effective reminder medium that can be
customized at a city-level, provides free experiences for less
af ent cons mers and a so reac es ro ps it o er iterac
levels.
Recognizing the medium’ s ability to reinforce messaging and
reach additional audiences, print conglomerates have expanded
their radio presence and looked to form bouquets with their
p ications is as occ rred at ot t e nationa e e e
Radio Mirchi-The Times Group, Red FM-Sun Group, Big FM-RBNL/
ee edia orp - orp adio it - a ran rakas an
e er - edia and re iona e e e e o - a ar
ications adio an o- a a a a anorama o - e
Mathrubhumi Group) . Such synergies, coupled with higher entry
barriers relative to mediums like print and digital, resulted in
~ 80% of frequencies and ~ 9 0% of industry revenues to be held
by the top-10 networks in FY 201683
. H aving served as the key
players in radio’ s Phase-III auctions, these major networks are set
to continue leading the industry’ s growth.
Radio phase-III auctions
India’ s radio market today is top-heavy, with the ten largest cities
making up nearly two-thirds of total industry revenues. But the
andscape is attenin it t e recent conc ded ase-
frequency auctions, in which more than 14 0 frequencies were
sold beyond the top-10 cities85
. As radio networks continue to
operationalize these channels, the medium’ s reach in new wave
cities and ot er sma er to ns is set to deepen si nificant
Radio
India’ s growth paradigm | 4 3
Indian FM radio landscape
R ail w ays
Mr Ranj an T hakur Executive Director,
Non-Fare Revenue, Ministry of
Railways, Government of India.
n t e ack of a ar e increase in orkin -a e pop ation
infrastr ct re de e opment and di ita si na e ndia s
industry has recorded double-digit growth in recent years. While
demonetization impacted this sector in 2016-17, new wave
markets will help growth return to longer-term norms. Various
o tdoor infrastr ct re initiati es are dri in and transit
media opport nities in t ese cities inc din
• perationa i ation of ne airports from - t e
Airport Authority of India86
• Development of new metro rail systems in markets like J aipur,
Kochi, Lucknow, Ludhiana and Nagpur87
• Road and highway construction through national industrial
corridors e e i- m ai m ai- an a ore an a ore-
ennai ennai- i a and mritsar- e i- o kata
corridors) 88
While the industry is currently concentrated in the top
metros ( over a third of revenues accrue to Delhi, Mumbai and
Bangalore89
) - such infrastructure initiatives will cause this mix to
c an e as more opport nities arise in ne a e cities
ser es as a ea t and effecti e reminder medi m to
and print ad ertisements and t is efficac is impro in f rt er
it t e rise of di ita arketers are ein dra n to t is
medium as it allows them to interact with consumers in real-time,
target users at a granular area-level and also receive superior
meas rement feed ack s a res t a t o di ita on
comprises ~ 10% of the industry today, the segment is expected
to grow ~ 25 % annually from 2016-19 9 0
.
t of ome
t of ome ad ertisin pro ides ast mi e connecti it
with the consumer, creating a strong chance of top-of-mind
reca t adds si nificant a e to t e media p an as it acts
as a reminder medium that has low cost per contact and
high visibility.
As India’ s metros and major urban cities near saturation
levels, especially in terms of economic growth, companies
across a range of sectors are moving towards Tier II/
III cities. Indeed, this next tier of cities has already been
delivering successful economic growth for the past decade.
In terms of transit media, this medium focuses on
marketing to consumers when they are “ on-the-go” in
p ic p aces in transit in specific commercia ocations
or waiting ( such as in a railway waiting room) . As brands
better understand transit media’ s reach in smaller towns
and the innovation techniques possible in this medium,
they will be able to more effectively target consumers in
Tier II/III cities.”
M inistry of R ail w ays, G overnment of I ndia
Ranj an T hakur
Executive Director,
Non-fare Revenue
4 4 | India’ s growth paradigm4 4 | India’ s growth paradigm
86. “ Airports Authority of India to revive 5 0 airports” , ET, Nov.2015
87. Government Metro Rail Portals, 2016
ake n ndia o ernment orta ndi id a nd stria orridor orta s
89 . “ Pitch Madison Advertising Report” , Pitch Madison, Feb.2017
i ita i take t e ind str storm esearc o t tdoor n
Glossary
India’ s growth paradigm | 4 7
T erm Definition
Bn Billion
ompo nd nn a ro t ate
it e consider cities to on comprise t eir distinct r an areas per t e ens s of ndia-
this does not include adjoining outgrowths/suburbs that make up the wider urban
agglomeration
De-monetization The Government of India' s initiatives around reforming money supply since November
2016, including the removal of existing INR 5 00 and INR 1000 banknotes from
circulation
DTH Direct-to-H ome
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GDP Gross Domestic Product
H ousehold income Value of combined gross income of a household
INR Indian rupee
etros ndian cities c assified as s c t e entra a ommission- c m ati e
household income, these are the top-ranked cities in India
Mn Million
New wave cities 4 2 Indian cities with the greatest cumulative household income, after the 8 metros
ea ross omestic rod ct ad sted for in ation
Tier II/III cities A generic term used by featured industry professionals in referring to the next set of
30-5 0 cities after the metros
Trn Trillion
di iti ation con ersion on ersion of ana o ca e ser ices into i ita ddressa e stems
Untapped potential A calculated index measuring the gap between consumer demand and business
supply
USD US Dollar
Y-o-Y Year-on-Year
otes
4 8 | India’ s growth paradigm
otes
India’ s growth paradigm | 4 9
5 0 | India’ s growth paradigm
EY India has a dedicated marketing and advertising practice of more than 35 0 professionals across 15 key segments of the industry. We
provide services to the top global brands including the largest advertisers, aggregating over 4 0% of total Indian advertising spends. We
identify potential areas of savings by analyzing and recommending strategic, process driven and compliance related gaps/ practices which
can e p c ient ac ie e o era efficienc and effecti eness in t eir marketin initiati es e are a so t e eadin pro ider of e ent risk
management solutions in India since 19 9 9 . EY has been the process advisor to more than 300 awards.
r arketin and d ertisin ractice
Farokh T . B alsara
Media & Entertainment Leader,
EY India
Through his 30 year career, Farokh
has served clients in the media and
entertainment industries and has
assisted them in identifying process
related risks and in developing controls
to mitigate risks and in improving the
efficienc and effecti eness of ke
business processes.
E : farokh.balsara@in.ey.com
N rip endra S ing h , Director
R adh ik a P radh an, Senior Manager
Aditya L ah iri, Senior Consultant
H arl een C h aw l a, Consultant
N andini R ag h avendra
A cknowledgements:
For further information, please contact
K arandeep Singh
Manager, EY India
Karandeep has over 9 years of experience
in the media and marketing industry. H e has
led multiple engagements in India and other
SEA countries.
E : karandeep.singh@in.ey.com
B harat Raj amani
Solution Leader, Marketing and Advertising Risk
Services (MARS), EY India
Bharat has over 20 years of work experience in EY
specialising in MARS reviews for over 16 years. H e
has conducted media plan optimization reviews,
marketing spend reviews/agency compensation
and performance reviews, below the line spend
reviews, and digital media assessments for leading
advertisers in India and Pan Asia cutting across
ario s ind stries oi and as te ecom
consumer durables, services, etc.
E : bharat.rajamani@in.ey.com
A miy a Swarup
Director, Event Risk Management
Amiya has been involved in conceptualisation,
design and implementation of over 300
awards, contests, game shows and events
across India
E : amiya.swarup@in.ey.com
For any comments or queries, please contact:
R adh ik a P radh an
T : 0 2 2 6 1 9 2 3 3 8 6 ; E : radh ik a.p radh an@ in.ey.com
C reative T eam: Yash asw ita G aw ade, K ush al L el e, V inith a N air
r offices
A hmedabad
2 nd
floor, Shivalik Ishaan
N ear C .N . V idh yal aya
Amb aw adi
Ah medab ad- 3 8 0 0 1 5
Tel : + 9 1 7 9 6 6 0 8 3 8 0 0
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“ U B C ity” , C anb erra B l ock
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D ivyasree C h amb ers
# 1 1 , O ’ S h aug h nessy R oad
L ang f ord G ardens
B eng al uru- 5 6 0 0 2 5
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C h andig arh - 1 6 0 0 0 9
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C hennai
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Taramani, C h ennai- 6 0 0 1 1 3
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G ol f V iew C orp orate Tow er B
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& 6 th
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I G I Airp ort H osp ital ity D istrict
Aerocity, N ew D el h i- 1 1 0 0 3 7
Tel : + 9 1 1 1 6 6 7 1 8 0 0 0
F ax + 9 1 1 1 6 6 7 1 9 9 9 9
4 th
& 5 th
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Tow er 2 , S ector 1 2 6
N O I D A- 2 0 1 3 0 4
G autam B udh N ag ar, U .P .
Tel : + 9 1 1 2 0 6 7 1 7 0 0 0
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H y derabad
Oval Office, 18, iLabs Centre
H itech C ity, M adh ap ur
H yderab ad- 5 0 0 0 8 1
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H ol ding N o. 1 , S B S h op Area
B istup ur, J amsh edp ur – 8 3 1 0 0 1
Tel : + 9 1 6 5 7 6 6 3 1 0 0 0
B S N L : + 9 1 6 5 7 2 2 3 0 4 4 1
K ochi
9 th
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N H - 4 9 , M aradu P O
K och i- 6 8 2 3 0 4
Tel : + 9 1 4 8 4 3 0 4 4 0 0 0
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K olkata
2 2 C amac S treet
3 rd
F l oor, B l ock ‘ C ’
K ol k ata- 7 0 0 0 1 6
Tel : + 9 1 3 3 6 6 1 5 3 4 0 0
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Mumbai
1 4 th
F l oor, Th e R ub y
2 9 S enap ati B ap at M arg
D adar ( W ) , M umb ai- 4 0 0 0 2 8
Tel : + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 0 0 0 0
F ax: + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 1 0 0 0
5 th
F l oor, B l ock B - 2
N irl on K now l edg e P ark
O f f . W estern Exp ress H ig h w ay
G oreg aon ( E)
M umb ai- 4 0 0 0 6 3
Tel : + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 0 0 0 0
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P une
C - 4 0 1 , 4 th
floor
P anch sh il Tech P ark
Yerw ada
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P une- 4 1 1 0 0 6
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About EY
EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and
advisory services. The insights and quality services we
deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital
markets and in economies the world over. We develop
outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our
promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play
a critical role in building a better working world for our
people, for our clients and for our communities.
EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to
one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young
Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity.
Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited
by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For
more information about our organization, please visit
ey.com.
Ernst & Young LLP is one of the Indian client serving
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Ernst & Young LLP is a Limited Liability Partnership,
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© 2017 Ernst & Young LLP. Published in India.
All Rights Reserved.
EYIN1703-020
ED None
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VN
Ernst & Young LLP
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Ey indias-growth-paradigm

  • 1. H ow mark ets b eyond metros h ave transf ormed March 2017 India’ s growth paradigm
  • 2.
  • 3. C ontents F orew ord .........................................................................................0 4 Executive h ig h l ig h ts ..........................................................0 6 1 . U rb aniz ation........................................................................1 0 2 . Time to re- strateg iz e: 5 0 not 8 .....................1 2 J aip ur and S urat.......................................................................... 1 4 Th e 1 1 th - 2 0 th h ig h - p otential mark ets............................. 1 6 G row th op p ortunities in 3 0 additional cities............ 1 8 M ark et- w ise rank ing s............................................................... 2 0 3 . U ntap p ed p otential ..................................................... 2 2 F M C G .................................................................................................. 2 4 R etail , f ash ion and durab l es................................................ 2 6 Auto .................................................................................................... 2 8 Tel ecom and D TH ........................................................................ 3 0 E- commerce ................................................................................... 3 2 Education ......................................................................................... 3 4 B F S I ..................................................................................................... 3 6 R eal estate ...................................................................................... 3 7 4 . O p timiz ing reach ............................................................3 8 TV ......................................................................................................... 4 0 P rint .................................................................................................... 4 1 D ig ital .................................................................................................. 4 2 R adio .................................................................................................. 4 3 O ut of h ome................................................................................... 4 4 G l ossary ...........................................................................................4 6
  • 4. Farokh Balsara Media & Entertainment Leader, EY India Bharat Rajamani Solution Leader, Marketing and Advertising Risk Services (MARS), EY India Ashish Pherwani Media & Entertainment, Advisory Leader, EY India Nripendra Singh Director, Media and Entertainment, EY India
  • 5. India is forging ahead as the world’s fastest growing major economy. Urban clusters are driving this growth, and more consumers and more purchasing power is emerging beyond the metros, particularly in Tier II/III cities. Media consumption has also matured in these markets, and penetration of mediums like print, DTH and radio can even be higher than in metros. As the country’s economic and media landscape continues to flatten, sizable opportunities have arisen in this new set of cities. However, many companies today continue to define their market, marketing and investment plans through a narrow lens focused on just the top handful of cities. But to fully realize its growth potential, India Inc. would be well-served to evaluate these emerging markets. Through our report, we aim to understand this opportunity across India’s fifty largest consumption hubs, and map how companies today are approaching individual hotspots. We hope you find this report helpful in exploring the opportunities this new wave of high-potential urban markets has in store for businesses, marketers and the industry at large. Foreword
  • 6. * Largest 50 cities as per cumulative household income, excluding cities bordering metros and in Jammu & Kashmir ** A further 41mn lived in surrounding areas as part of the wider urban agglomeration-areas that do not fall under the definition of a ‘city’ per the government Census Executive highlights People will reside in Indian cities in 2020, up from 420mn in 2015 >470mn Real GDP growth of urban India 2015-20 4% higher than rural India 8.8% Of national GDP will be generated by urban areas by 2020, up from 65% in 2015 >70% Urban areas are the engines driving India’s growth Of household income was concentrated in such markets in 2015 INR 26.4trn People lived in these cities in 2015** 123mn The 50 largest cities* have transformed into major consumption hubs A “new wave” of metros and mini-metros has emerged Metros which possess household income of at least INR 800bn 8 Additional markets-Jaipur and Surat-will cross this INR 800bn threshold before 2020 2 Cities’ household income will exceed INR 400bn in 2020-up from 18 such cities in 2015 26
  • 7. *** Adjusted from urban area-level to city-level Addition to the population base of 42 new wave markets from 2015-20- these cities’ population recently surpassed that of metros and the gap will continue to widen 6.9mn Share of household income in 2020 for new wave markets relative to metros-up from 58% in 2010 Fastest growing cities in terms of 2015-20 annual GDP growth are new wave markets Top-1161% 42 new wave markets are catching up to India’s 8 metros 42 new wave markets’ total population is similar to that of 8 metros today, but they have… as many TV households as many DTH households .88x 1.26x times a large print circulation*** 1.06x as many active Facebook users 0.63x as many operational radio frequencies 2.17x Media penetration in these new wave markets is rising and has even passed that of metros in certain mediums Markets with the greatest gap between demand-side consumption and supply-side penetration belong to this new wave of non-metros Markets that are the most under-tapped by companies today are all new wave cities Top-23 These 23 markets represent 19% of metros’ household income-but only 12% of retail outlets 15% of telecom centres and 17% of malls
  • 9. Guwahati 42New wave cities Agra AGRA Allahabad ALLH Amritsar AMRT Aurangabad AURA Bhubaneswar BHUB Coimbatore COIMB Dehradun DHRD Dhanbad DHNB Guwahati GUW Gwalior GWAL Hubli-Dharwad HUBL Jalandhar JALN Jamshedpur JMSH Jodhpur JODH Kochi KOCH Kota KOTA Kozhikode KOZH Ludhiana LUDH Madurai MADU Meerut MRUT Mysore MYS Nashik NASH Raipur RAIP Rajkot RAJK Ranchi RNCH Trichy TRCH Trivandrum TRV Varanasi VARAN Vijayawada VIJY Warangal WRNG 2 Fresh metros 10 Next set of high-potential cities 30 Additional emerging markets Bhopal BHOP Chandigarh CHND Indore INDR Jabalpur JBLP Kanpur KANP Lucknow LUCK Nagpur NAGP Patna PATN Vadodara VAD Vizag VIZ Jaipur JPR Surat SURT Ahmedabad AHM Bangalore BNG Chennai CHEN Delhi DEL Hyderabad HYD Kolkata KOLK Mumbai MUM Pune PUNE 8metros Traditional
  • 11. 5 5 61 67 5 5 62 69 5 0 5 5 60 65 70 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 Citypopulation(mn)4,5,6 8 metros 203 272 371 117 15 8 217 0 100 200 300 4 00 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 Percapitaincome(INR000s)4,6 4 2 new wave cities 2015 -20 CAGR% of real GDP6 8 .3 % 8 .9 % Due to lower growth in rural areas, both metros and new wave cities are expected to exceed national-level growth projections till 2020 for population ( 1.1% 7 ) and GDP ( 7.6% 8 ) . But growth in new wave cities has edged out even metros in recent years, and there are a few important factors at play. First, new wave cities’ younger demographics and higher fertility rates have helped their population bases surpass that of metros. Second, as India Inc. began shifting its focus to these markets and modern tec no o ies and practices fi tered t ro sinesses ere a e to capt re o - an in efficienc ains e res tin p-tick in employment prospects helped make these cities attractive destinations for migrants, further boosting population levels. As a result, new wave cities registered faster GDP growth in recent years and this is projected to continue till 2020. India’ s growth paradigm | 11 Faster gains in population and per capita income will allow new wave cities’ G D P growth to outpace that of metros India is evolving. In its seventh decade of independence, over US$ 1trn has been added to national GDP, lifting tens of millions into the middle class. This growth has primarily come from cities, and the population of urban areas has expanded from 34 0mn in 2006 to 4 30mn in 20161 . Indeed, this 9 0mn addition alone would rank as the sixteenth largest country in the world today. Given that urban areas are projected to grow their share of national GDP from 65 % in 2015 to over 70% by 20202 , the dynamism of these clusters will continue to hold the key to growth. A new wave of consumption hubs e entra a ommissions c assification of metros on t e basis of population originally included just four cities-Delhi, m ai o kata and ennai3 er time t is ist as e panded to Bangalore and H yderabad in 2007, and Ahmedabad and ne in takin t e tota n m er of defined metros to eight3 . These markets are major consumption centres, each containing household incomes of at least INR 800bn4 , and the opportunity they present to companies has been well- established. H owever, there is a new emerging class of cities, with millions of aspirational consumers who are vying for attention on the national stage. These are India’ s “ new wave” consumption s-defined ere as t e ne t cities c m ati e o se o d income4 . Taken together, these 5 0 cities represent the key urban markets for businesses, marketers and investors to target. or d ities eport Ur ani ation and e e opment United ations 2. “ Assembling the Building Blocks” , Barclays EM Research, 2014 ; “ A tale of two economies- Rural and Urban” , Goldman Sachs Research, 2016; “ H ome is Where the Growth Is” , t ook ities as n ines of nc si e e e opment ndian nstit te for man ett ements na sis and ities assification inistr of inance orta arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ities orderin metros and in ere not considered ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs 6. EY Analysis 7. “ World Population Prospects” , United Nations, 2015 Revision or d conomic t ook nternationa onetar nd an o a conomic rospects or d ank an Millions more middle class
  • 13. The economic landscape of India is changing. It therefore becomes a priority to identify high potential hotspots and then accordingly sharpen strategies, resource allocation and expansion plans. ro t is report e aim to nderstand fift of ndia s ar est cons mption markets t ro fo r ke parameters I. A ddressable market size: H ow large is the potential audience. II. G rowth prospects i cons mption ro in t e s ort to medium-term. III. U ntapped potential o sat rated is t e market toda IV . Media depth o easi can messa in reac identified audiences. Using these four parameters, we have developed a market potential value for each metro and new wave city. These new wave cities have been clubbed into the groups below and each segment’ s potential and value drivers are outlined in the following sections. Total household income ( 2015 constant prices in INR trn) W idth: 2mn population H eight: INR 25 ,000 per capita income ( 2015 constant prices) 8 metros India' s 2020 city sky line9 30 additional new wave markets 11th -20th high potential markets Jaipur Surat 24 . 7 2. 2 5. 8 7. 1 The focus of companies today and the majority of ad spends are still concentrated in the top handful of cities. t as ndia mat res si nificant cons mption and ad spend growth is coming from aspirational smaller towns. e are seein ma or c ients in ind stries ike and Auto getting strong feedback from Tier II/III cities and re- focusing on the same, though such shifts are generally cate or and c ient-specific or instance e-commerce players have so far concentrated on big cities as the space is strongly driven by distribution. In terms of media consumption, the lion’ s share of the market still belongs to TV and print, although digital will grow. Partly as a result of its high levels of competition, TV is often the cheaper medium, and is used as the lowest common denominator to reach mass. In contrast, print is primarily localized. As media options in non- metros are often more limited, there are fewer avenues by which audiences are segmented. Advertisers must t s caref e a ate t e efficac and time spent on localized mediums in such cities. Shashi Sinha IPG Mediabrands India’ s growth paradigm | 13 The top 5 0 markets 9 . EY Analysis
  • 14. India’ s eight traditional metros have long been the primary focus for India Inc., and these are the only cities that hold at least INR 800bn in household income today. But this is set to change, as J aipur and Surat join this group. n t e ack of ro st pop ation ro t in estment acti it and various government initiatives, J aipur and Surat are projected to record real GDP growth of 8.7% and 10.3% respectively from 2015 -20, relative to metros’ 8.3% 10 . As a result, J aipur and Surat will cross this INR 800bn threshold within one to two years, and total consumption levels will reach 75 % -80% of metros like Pune and Ahmedabad10 . e risin si e and af ence of t ese markets is si nificant for businesses and marketers alike, who should move from a top-8 city strategy to one centered around the country’ s ten major consumption hubs. Favourable demographics11 A key characteristic of J aipur and Surat is their favourable demographics. While Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore dwarf India’ s other markets with over 10mn people each, J aipur and Surat have now grown to population levels exceeding smaller metros like Pune. op ation ro t as een dri en mi rant in o s and i birth rates, resulting in the two cities collectively adding over 1.7mn to their population base between 2010-15 . J aipur and Surat also have a distinct advantage in terms of their young working-age cohort, with 22% of their population between 15 -24 years, relative to other metros’ 20% . This is set to pay dividends on growth, as young, educated workers enter the labour force and become new consumers that marketers can target. Rising investment activity J aipur and Surat are becoming major investment hubs, and ere ranked o a in estors as t e first and fift most attractive investment destinations after the metros, in EY’ s 2015 Attractiveness Survey12 . Several developments across both public and private spheres are driving investment. 14 | India’ s growth paradigm 10. EY Analysis arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis 12. “ Ready, Set, Grow” , EY Attractiveness Survey, 2015 J aipur and Surat have transformed into India’ s 9 th and 10th metros 6. 2 5. 1 Total household income ( 2015 constant prices, in INR trn) Mumbai Bangalore
  • 15. India’ s growth paradigm | 15 • J aipur and Surat have both been selected to be developed nder t e entra o ernment s mart ities ission Developmental projects of ~ INR 25 bn are planned for each cit nder t is pro ram inc din si nificant initiati es re ated to water management, solar power and IT automation13 . • Various infrastructure projects are underway, and are boosting connectivity. Work on Surat’ s airport extension is due to be completed in 2017, while J aipur’ s airport has grown to re ister mont passen er traffic of ro a f of Pune’ s14 ,15 ) . Meanwhile, J aipur opened India’ s sixth metro- rail system in 2015 , and further route extensions are already under construction16 . • Private investment has picked up, with Surat registering 21% y-o-y nominal bank credit growth from 2012-16- higher than any other metro or new wave city17 . • e m ti- i ion do ar e i- m ai nd stria orridor pro ect is a so in pro ress and ot cities i enefit from being part of this manufacturing and investment backbone. Increased consumption H igh levels of individual consumption are also responsible for these two cities’ status as the country’ s 9 th and 10th metros. J aipur’ s 2015 annual per capita income of INR 0.20mn was amongst the highest in the country and approaching that of Kolkata; while Surat’ s INR 0.13mn per capita income was lower, but still comparable to Ahmedabad18 . Meanwhile, high levels of media consumption are providing si nificant opport nities for marketers • T V : J aipur and Surat have a cumulative 1.5 mn TV homes- as many as Pune and Kolkata combined11 . • P rint: J aipur and Surat-based publications have continued to grow both circulation and ad volume since 2012- a feat not achieved by any metro print market19 . This suggests the scope for advertisers to re-calibrate media plans towards these two markets. W idth: 1mn population H eight: INR 5 0,000 per capita income ( 2015 constant prices) India' s 2020 metro sky line10 4 . 4 3. 1 1. 9 1. 4 1. 4 1. 3 1. 2 1. 0 Surat J aipur Kolkata Ahmedabad PuneDelhi H yderabad Chennai it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of Ur an e e opment orta 14 . “ Airport runway extension to be completed” , Times of India, Apr.2016 raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta ro ect tat s aip r etro ai orporation orta arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s eser e ank of ndia - na sis 18. “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis d o me of eported ications de - irc ation of eported ications dit rea of irc ation - na sis
  • 16. 20. “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs EY Analysis it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of Urban Development Portal, 2016 raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta 2016 arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s Reserve Bank of India, 2012-16; EY Analysis 24 . “ Ready, Set, Grow” , EY Attractiveness Survey, 2015 25 . “ Ad Volume of Reported Publications” , TAM Adex, FY13-16 irc ation of eported ications dit rea of irc ation - 27. EY Analysis 16 | India’ s growth paradigm The 11th -20th high-potential cities have become major consumption hubs in their own right- cumulatively equivalent to four metros today e af ence and si e of ndia s top- cities make t em markets t at simp cannot e i nored firms ookin to ro top- ines But tapping the next ten high-potential new wave markets can de i er an incrementa reac e i a ent to ennai o kata ne and Ahmedabad combined. Sizable economies20 When population and per capita incomes are considered together, the purchasing power of these ten cities is nearly INR 4 trn which is on par with four metros. • ities ike ckno anp r a p r ndore and opa a e crossed 2mn in population, and present sizable opportunities to grow volumes. • t t e ot er end of t e spectr m cons mers in andi ar i a and adodara are amon st t e most af ent in t e country, with per capita incomes over INR 0.2mn. G rowth clusters There are a few common factors driving GDP growth in these cities- projected to be a robust 8.9 % annually from 2015 -20. • All cities ( except Patna) have already won funding from the mart ities ission t n- n eac t e p anned pro ects of andi ar ndore and a a p r are partic ar notable and are set to boost development21 . • Leaps in connectivity are taking place, and air passenger traffic in t ese cities as mped from - re ati e to metros’ 35 % 22 . • Investment activity is strong and Patna, Vizag, J abalpur and Bhopal each registered over 15 % y-o-y growth of nominal bank credit during 2012-16- higher than every metro except Ahmedabad23 . • These cities have also become attractive destinations for FDI. adodara andi ar i a and a p r ere a ranked amongst the top eight non-metro investment destinations by global investors in EY’ s 2015 Attractiveness Survey24 . Media depth The media markets of these ten new wave cities are different to that of metros, in that they skew more towards print and radio re ati e to is means marketers cannot take a one-si e-fits- all approach and must select appropriate media vehicles to target audiences. or instance andi ar despite a in a pop ation of st over 1mn, serves as a major print hub in the North and has the country’ s seventh largest print ad volume25 . Meanwhile, markets like Lucknow and Patna have seen rising print penetration, recording over 8% annual circulation growth in recent years26 . Not coincidentally, these three literate, print-centric markets are also amongst the top-ranked non-metros in terms of digital consumption.27
  • 17. 28. Ministry of Information & Broadcasting; EY Analysis India’ s growth paradigm | 17 B h op al , C h andig arh , I ndore, J ab al p ur, K anp ur, L uck now , N ag p ur, P atna, V adodara, V iz ag 2015 population + 2015 -20 addition 20 Ah medab ad, C h ennai, K ol k ata, P une 2015 household income + 2015 -20 addition 20 Planned Smart City investment ( value) 20 2016 TV homes 20 2015 -16 Print ad volume 25 2016 Radio frequencies 28 2015 FMCG spend 20 2016 car households 20 20.4 mn + 1.9 mn 18.9 mn + 1.2mn INR 4 .0trn + INR 2.0trn INR 3.8trn + INR 2.0trn INR 267bn INR 76bn 0.60mn 0.71mn INR 189 bn INR 224 bn 3.3mn 3.6mn 185 mn sq. cm. 14 2mn sq. cm. 33 26
  • 18. While the next thirty new wave cities by market value are typically smaller in size, they tend to also have the highest growth potential. To evaluate this potential, two elements have been assessed for each city- its GDP growth in the medium- term, and its untapped potential today ( i.e. gap between demand-side consumption and supply-side penetration) . ities i i ted in t e top-ri t adrant of t e c art represent markets with the highest growth potential. Nearly all highlighted cities ( Allahabad, Dehradun, Gwalior, J odhpur, Kota, Raipur, Rajkot, Ranchi, Vijayawada and Warangal) belong to this group of thirty additional new wave markets. E conomic growth The economic outlook in these ten cities is bright. • Five cities have already secured funding from the Smart ities ission it t e a e of p anned pro ects in aip r and aran a partic ar si nificant at n and n respectively29 . • onnecti it pro ects are a so nder a and are oostin economic linkages, with new airports in Allahabad and Dehradun becoming operationalized in recent years30 . • ese markets a so a e fa o ra e demo rap ics er a fift of eac cit is made p of - ear o ds it Allahabad, Gwalior and Kota leading the way at ~ 23% 31 . The entry of this large youth demographic into the workforce promises a growing consumer base and further opportunities for businesses and marketers. U ntapped potential These ten markets are also under-saturated, and there appear to be large gaps between local demand and supply across a range of sectors. For instance, the high growth and potential of state capitals like Raipur, Ranchi and Dehradun have been singled out by industry experts in the BFSI and Education sectors. In addition, when compared to t e o era ni erse of fift cities in t ese ten markets e d • of e pendit re on t on of retai outlets31,32 • 7.8% of expenditure on fashion & durables, but 6.1% of malls31,32 • 6.4 % of total expenditure, but only 5 .6% of telecom centres31,32 ese aps s est si nificant scope for ndia nc to reac consumers that have been heretofore untapped. 18 | India’ s growth paradigm The greatest opportunities for marginal revenue growth lie in the 30 additional new wave cities
  • 19. it ise ro ects Under mart ities ission inistr of Ur an e e opment orta raffic e s tatistics irport t orit of ndia orta arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia 33. EY Analysis DEL BNG MUM H YD CH EN KOLK J PRPUNE SURT AH M VIZ LUCK CH ND VAD KANP INDR NAGP PATN BH OP TRV J BLP VIJ Y KOTA RAIP AMRT LUDH RAJ K RNCH J ODH NASH KOCH ALLH GWAL DH RD MYS J MSH J ALN AGRA BH UB GUW AURA COIMB VARAN TRCHMRUT DH NB KOZ H MADU H UBL WRNG 6 .5 % 7 .5 % 8 .5 % 9 .5 % 1 0 .5 % 1 1 .5 % 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 ProjectedrealannualGDPgrowth(percentage,2015-2020) U ntapped market potential (index , 2016) Marginal growth opportunities33 Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population H igher-growth markets, that are under-tapped Median Median India’ s growth paradigm | 19
  • 20. We have evaluated each market across four dimensions-size, future growth prospects, level of untapped potential and media depth. The market values are presented here. Overall ranking34 Market potential value of 5 0 Indian cities P arameter W eight Addressable market size ( 5 0% ) Growth prospects ( 20% ) Untapped potential ( 20% ) Media depth ( 10% ) 11th -20th high potentialmarkets30additionalnewwavemarketsTop-10markets 5 3 2 8 8 7 8 6 6 9 8 10 7 5 13 8 8 5 8 7 12 11 8 9 8 11 12 10 9 13 15 11 17 19 18 20 16 14 21 21 27 24 25 30 28 33 39 4 4 4 6 5 0 11 14 12 12 12 11 11 13 11 12 12 14 11 17 10 19 13 16 15 16 13 13 15 14 15 14 12 16 18 14 15 18 14 12 17 12 12 20 12 14 15 14 18 10 14 11 15 14 14 11 12 14 17 13 13 17 15 15 17 14 14 15 20 17 15 11 17 17 14 17 16 17 17 18 19 18 19 20 18 19 16 19 16 18 13 15 17 18 17 18 12 16 15 17 15 15 16 12 15 14 5 4 6 5 7 4 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 10 6 7 5 5 8 4 6 8 7 7 8 8 9 33 35 38 39 39 39 4 0 4 0 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 8 4 8 4 8 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 2 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 7 5 7 5 8 60 62 62 62 65 65 76 78 83 83 MADU H UBL KOZ H GUW COIMB DH NB MRUT VARAN TRCH AURA J ALN AGRA J MSH WRNG LUDH BH UB MYS DH RD KOCH GWAL NASH AMRT ALLH J ODH RNCH RAJ K TRV KOTA RAIP VIJ Y BH OP J BLP VAD KANP INDR NAGP CH ND PATN LUCK VIZ AH M J PR SURT KOLK PUNE CH EN H YD DEL BNG MUM 20 | India’ s growth paradigm 34 . EY Analysis Note: Values are on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being the highest
  • 21. Rankings by growth prospects34 Rankings by untapped potential34 India’ s growth paradigm | 21 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 BH UB DEL MADU AH M COIMB INDR GUW AURA MUM KOCH H UBL J ALN BNG AGRA CH EN VARAN MRUT LUDH PUNE SURT NAGP NASH BH OP H YD J PR VAD KOLK CH ND AMRT WRNG LUCK DH NB MYS DH RD GWAL KOZ H TRCH ALLH PATN RAIP KANP RAJ K VIZ J ODH VIJ Y J BLP RNCH TRV KOTA J MSH 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19 20 KOLK LUDH MUM DH NB MADU CH EN J MSH MRUT TRCH TRV COIMB AURA J ALN CH ND KANP GUW LUCK KOZ H NAGP VARAN AMRT NASH MYS DEL H UBL AGRA VAD J PR J ODH RAJ K BNG PUNE VIJ Y VIZ RNCH H YD BH OP KOCH AH M ALLH KOTA DH RD GWAL INDR WRNG SURT J BLP RAIP BH UB PATN Note: Values are on a 1-20 scale, with 20 being the highest Note: Values are on a 1-20 scale, with 20 being the highest
  • 23. As India Inc. deepens its reach into a new set of urban markets, it becomes crucial to understand which under- saturated hotspots can drive future growth. To identify these untapped markets, we have evaluated whether each city’ s supply-side market penetration e per capita penetration of retail outlets, malls, banks, telecom centres etc.) is proportional to its level of demand-side consumption e per capita spend on c ot in ed cation etc Major advertiser segments have been assessed in this way. e find t at t e reatest aps between consumption and supply-side penetration lie in smaller new wave cities, and these disparities highlight the opportunities for businesses to expand beyond the major centres and plug this gap. India’ s growth paradigm | 23 Retail, fashion and durables andi ar Kota Dehradun Kozhikode J abalpur Trivandrum J amshedpur Vijayawada Kolkata Vizag Allahabad J amshedpur andi ar J odhpur Dehradun Lucknow Guwahati Patna J aipur Ranchi J aipur Raipur J amshedpur Trivandrum Kota Vadodara Mysore Vijayawada Nagpur Vizag Bhopal Lucknow Bhubaneswar Patna Indore Trivandrum J alandhar Vijayawada Kanpur Vizag Indore Pune J odhpur Raipur Kanpur Vijayawada Kota Vizag Mysore Warangal Agra J odhpur Bhopal Kota Dhanbad Lucknow Indore Raipur J aipur Ranchi Agra Rajkot Ahmedabad Ranchi Allahabad Surat Kozhikode Vijayawada Nashik Warangal B FSI and Real E state T elecom and D T H E -commerce E ducation T op-10 untapped markets36 2016e A d spend (INR bn)35 FMC G 14 6 4 9 4 0 56 4 4 24 24 + 22 A uto 35 . EY industry discussions and analysis on media spends 36. EY analysis
  • 24. MUM DEL BNG H YD AH MSURT CH EN J PR PUNE KOLK VIZ VIJ Y KOTA J BLP CH ND TRV J MSH DH RD KOZ H Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 AnnualexpenditurepercapitaonFMCG(INR000s,2015) P enetration of retail outlets (index , 2016) Market trends: FMC G 39 Under-tapped markets 2016e A d spend: FMC G 74 % 19 % 1% 6% INR 14 6bn TV Print Radio Other Untapped potential The steady rise of modern trade channels and disposable incomes pro ide a stron p atform for ndia s ind str pro ected to grow 6% -8% annually till 202037 . While consumption has been sluggish in recent years, particularly in rural areas, a normal monsoon in 2016 is expected to increase demand37 . Meanwhile, the continuing strength of urban clusters has seen brands focus on new products/variants in urban-centric categories, and as these consumers move up the economic ladder, there is a burgeoning demand for premium products38 . Given these consumption trends, and amid a fierce competiti e marketp ace it ecomes imperati e for companies to tap under-saturated markets. T op-10 untapped markets: andi ar e rad n a a p r J amshedpur, Kolkata, Kota, Kozhikode, Trivandrum, Vijayawada, Vizag 37. EY Analysis ector er ie ndia rand it o ndation an s ro t stor taperin siness tandard an nticipate it na tics e t re of ie sen o ind str disc ssions arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia na sis enetration defined as per capita per s km densit of retai o t ets 24 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 25. a es of ater oft rinks on- ar onated rinks ie sen ata ase “ The growing consumption power of urban India has led to two key trends in the industry-eating out and healthy foods. These have driven growth for us in categories like branded Basmati rice. Similarly, brown rice was unheard of 10 years ago, but as consumers became more health conscious, sales for this premium product rose ten-fold in just a few years. As consumers keep moving up the value chain and experimenting, alternative and higher-end categories will continue to drive growth. While consumption patterns are similar across metros and Tier II/III markets, there is a stark gap on the supply-side. Given the strong footprint of modern retail in metros, and with new entrants typically focused on these cities, Tier II/ III markets are under-saturated. With scope to expand, the share of shops covered by LT Foods’ distribution network in ier cities rose - times o er t e past fi e ears Given these trends, 4 2 Tier II/III markets’ share of our sales rose from to o er a fi e- ear period- it markets registering 3% higher annual growth relative to metros.” ario s companies findin metros and mini-metros saturated, have targeted rural areas at the bottom of the pyramid. In the process, many Tier II/III markets have been under-tapped. In fact, a recent study conducted by us showed continuing Tier II/III outlets had 10% higher growth y-o-y relative to metros. These cities are brimming with aspirational consumers, and the marketing of products centres aro nd rand a areness and cons mer-p re ati e to t e prod ct-p s approac in metros simi ar market ap as emer ed in distri tion r ani ed retail, which only contributes ~ 10% of the market, has faced issues with throughput, costly real estate and distribution for thousands of SKUs. This reality is not likely to change in the short to medium-term. H owever, there are opportunities to expand in smaller stores with monthly sales of INR 5 -10 lakh. But this requires a shift in mindset-to move from the traditional focus on distribution costs to a focus on t ro p t and o era profit and oss V ivek C h andra o a rands siness Ab h inav J ain Founder and Director L T F oods L td. B eacon Anal ytics C oca- C ol a L td. P rash ant P aramesw aran Director, Marketing Strategy and Insights India “ With millions of consumers yet to be tapped in Tier II/ III markets, brands are expanding distribution networks and micro-targeting consumption pockets. As a result, while the industry experienced a slowdown in major metros in the past few years, less saturated untapped Tier II/III cities have shown faster growth. Today, the share of our business from urban cities beyond the top- 8 metros has grown to ~ 30% , relative to ~ 25 % from the top-8 markets. While organized retail has faced challenges beyond the top 15 -20 cities, these are often related to mindsets, more than any logistical hurdle. As a result, amid growing competition from regional players, expansion into Tier II/III cities is set to continue. These markets will continue evolving, with trends like premiumisation driving growth in categories like juices and milk-based products.” 8 metros 5 8 tier II/III cities Industry sales value of non-alcoholic beverages (select cities, INR bn)4 0 60.6% 60.4 % 5 9 .9 % 39 .4 % 39 .6% 4 0.1% FY14 FY15 FY16 5 0.7bn 5 4 .0bn5 1.2bn
  • 26. Untapped potential India’ s retail sector is set to continue its double-digit growth on the back of rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization and the growth of organized and internet retailing. Fashion ( apparel and footwear) is the largest segment in Indian organized retail and t is market is pro ected to ro at a ea t of during 2015 -2020 from ~ INR 4 trn in 2015 4 1 . While organized retail’ s share of the national market is projected to rise from ~ 10% today to ~ 16% by 2020, many new wave cities remain nder-penetrated and rid of ine on ine distri tion mode s are becoming increasingly popular4 1,4 2 . Given the millions of aspirational consumers in these markets and their appetite for rands t e ntapped opport nit is si nificant T op-10 untapped markets: J aipur, J amshedpur, Kota, Mysore, Nagpur, Raipur, Trivandrum, Vadodara, Vijayawada, Vizag Under-tapped markets MUM DEL BNG H YD AH M SURT CH EN KOLK PUNE J PR NAGP VIZ VAD VIJ YRAIP KOTA MYS TRV J MSH - 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population Annualexpenditurepercapitaonclothing,footwearand appliances(INR000s,2015) P enetration of malls (index , 2016) Market trends: Retail, fashion and durables4 3 4 1. EY Analysis etai etrospect ein ent e rite etai ers ssociation of ndia e ear at ndia s e ai nno nced ts rri a ec nopak arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia na sis enetration defined as per capita per s km densit of ma s 2016e Ad spend: Retail, fashion and durables 31% 5 0% 4 % 15 % INR 56bn TV Print Radio Other Retail, fashion and durables 26 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 27. “ The Indian smartphone segment has grown nearly ten- fold over the last 5 years, with 103.6mn shipments in 2015 . While metros have provided the initial growth, the next wave of growth will come from Tier II/III consumers migrating from feature phones. Affordability is set to drive growth, with the average selling price of a smartphone nearly halving in the last fi e ears to U in ea in estment of telecom operators into new infrastructure will also boost demand, with 4 G models already comprising over 60% of smartphone shipments in Q 2’ 16. Lastly, given that smartphone penetration in India remains below 30% - t ere is a si nificant market et to e tapped “ While we have a strong presence in metropolitan cities, we are increasingly extending our signature bridge-to- luxury experience to Tier II/III cities as well. This strategy is emblematic of the aspirations and concomitant buying power which exists in such markets. f co rse ier markets come it a certain set of challenges too. For instance, such markets are often heavily reliant on their local high-streets and are not very accustomed to the department store experience and/ or o r rand e it n s c cases e make si nificant investments in building the brand and establishing a local connect with the community. To further connect with our customers, we aim to have staff conversant in both English and vernacular, as older Tier II/III customers in particular have a preference for local languages.” G ovind S h rik h ande Managing Director N avk endar S ing h H ead Mobile Devices Research India and South Asia H y brid distribution strategies in T ier II/ III cities n ine c anne s compe in a e proposition in terms of price, convenience and product range has led to 29 % of smartphones being shipped online today. H owever, with vendors looking to make deeper inroads into smaller towns, online exclusive models are being made a ai a e of ine too I nternational D ata C orp orationS h op p ers S top L td. Tier II/III cities metros and surrounding cities Number of Shoppers Stop stores4 4 28 4 6 11 35 Mar 2011 J un 2016 20 tier II/III cities 8 metros Smartphone shipment breakup (select cities, mn)4 5 73% 71% 70% 27% 29 % 30% 11.8mn 9 .8mn 10.8mn Q 4 ' 15 Q 1 ' 16 Q 2 ' 16 4 4 . “ Q uarterly Performance Update” , Shoppers Stop, 2011-16 ont it - e e martp one racker -
  • 28. Untapped potential The Indian auto industry has immense growth potential owing to its unique demographic dividend and low penetration levels ( India’ s car penetration of ~ 32 per 1000 people is just 4 % -6% of most European markets as well as the US) . As a result, domestic passenger vehicle sales in India are expected to grow robustly at 9 % -11% annually from 2015 -20 to reach 4 .0-4 .5 mn units by 2020. Growth will be nearly as strong in the two-wheeler segment, which will grow at 8% – 10% annually from 2015 -2020 to reach ~ 25 mn units by 2020. With auto makers looking to tap into these growth opportunities, several new wave cities are particularly under penetrated. T op-10 untapped markets: Indore, J odhpur, Kanpur, Kota, Mysore, Pune, Raipur, Vijayawada, Vizag, Warangal MUM BNG DEL H YD CH EN AH M SURT KOLK J PR PUNE VIZ KANP INDR VIJ Y RAIP KOTA J ODH MYS WRNG Size of bubble denotes total households with an annual income > INR 0.5 mn Autodemandpotential(index,2013-16composite) % of households with a car (percentage, 2015) Market trends: Au to (4 -wheelers)4 7 Under-tapped markets for first-time car buyers. Given current income levels, road density and ( un) availibility of metro-rails, these markets' car ownership rates have not yet reached expected industry levels. 25 35 4 5 5 5 65 75 85 9 5 4 % 8% 12% 16% 20% 24 % 4 6. “ Domestic Sales Trends” , Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, 2016; “ Road Transport Yearbook” , Ministry of Road Transport & H ighways, 2014 ; EY Analysis arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia Government metro rail portals, 2016; EY Analysis. ( Demand potential combines % of population with an annual income > INR 0.5 mn, motorable roads per sq. km., availability of metro rails) . 2016e A d spend: A uto 34 % 5 1% 3% 13% INR 4 9bn TV Print Radio Other Auto4 6 28 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 29. 4 8. “ Luxury car sales to double by 2020- IH S Automotive” , Business Standard, Feb.2016; “ Audi targets Tier II/III cities to spur growth” , ET, J un.2016; “ Luxury carmakers drive down new retail ways” , Business Standard, Aug.2016; EY industry discussions 4 9 . “ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis L eading 2 - w h eel er manuf acturer ons mer e pectations of prod cts as e as t e price points do not vary by the tier of city. H owever, the nature of demand for 2-wheelers in metros tends towards rep acement ereas t ere are more first-time ers in Tier II/III cities. This lower saturation in Tier II/III cities relative to metros results in 3-4 % higher sales growth. Another difference is that with lower real estate costs in Tier II/III markets, showrooms are often larger, and can be put in more prime locations as attractions.” N ational S trateg y H ead Indian 2-wheeler manufacturer “ Tier II/III cities are showing great potential, with mobility often the primary use case of smartphones in such markets. Rising smartphone penetration and 4 G connectivity are driving this growth, and cities like J aipur, andi ar and atna are emer in as t e metros of tomorrow. As Tier II/III cities typically have less ready supply chain elements relative to metros, supply creation becomes more crucial than supply aggregation. To ensure s staina i it as t erefore ooked to de e op a oca ecosystem in these cities by hosting driver meets, helping drivers procure commercial licenses, as well as having a oca office in eac market O L A K ey initiatives to reach T ier II/ III consumers • panded o -cost a ternati e icro to cities in 2016-achieved the same number of rides in a month as took ears to do • Expanded the app to 9 vernacular languages • Launched lite-version of the app, which functions using fewer data points Anand S ub ramanian enior irector arketin omm nications Market trends: L ux ury cars4 8,4 9 India’ s luxury car segment grew to an estimated 35 ,300 units in 2015 -more than double of 2010 volumes. Much of the growth has come from new wave cities, whose share of t e market as no reac ed - n t e ack of more product introductions at the entry-level and a ramp-up of dealer networks across Tier II/III cities, sales are expected to double again by 2020. Mobile showrooms have been initiated by Audi and BMW, with tours across cities including Patna, Kota and Agra New wave markets’ share of total sales in India’ s luxury cars segment ~ 33% New wave cities annual sales growth of luxury cars ( roughly triple that of metros) ~ 25 % Split between new wave cities and metros for ~ 1.5 mn households with annual incomes over INR 5 mn 38%
  • 30. Untapped potential India has grown to the world’ s second largest telecom market, with 624 mn urban subscribers alone. As the cost of smartphones and data fall rapidly and given that voice services have already achieved deep penetration, the next wave of growth is expected to come from data services. By 2020, wireless data is expected to comprise nearly 4 6% of the sector’ s gross revenue, while video’ s s are of mo i e traffic i rise to s operators ro -o t infrastructure in an aggressive pursuit for subscribers and a piece of t is ro t reac in af ent nderpenetrated markets becomes key. T op-10 untapped markets: a a ad andi ar e rad n Guwahati, J aipur, J amshedpur, J odhpur, Lucknow, Patna, Ranchi MUM DEL BNG H YD AH M SURT CH EN KOLK PUNE J PR LUCK PATN ALLHRNCH J ODH GUW CH ND J MSH DH RD - Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population Annualexpenditurepercapitaandinternetusage (index,composite2011-16) P enetration of telecom service centres and 4 G availibility (index , 2016) Market trends: T elecom5 1 Under-tapped markets 10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 9 0 10 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 9 0 5 0. “ Q uarterly Indicators” , Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Sep.2016; EY Analysis arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs it - ise oints of nterest ap ndia r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e ace ook d atform te ecom operator p ic porta s na sis enetration defined as per capita per s km densit of te ecom centres a ai a i it of top- operators considered as of ct 2016e Ad spend: T elecom and D T H 5 5 % 14 % 2% 29 % INR 4 4 bn TV Print Radio Other Telecom and DTH 5 0 30 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 31. “ Within the same circle, Tier II/III subscriber bases are growing roughly 1.6x as fast as in metros.“ T ier II/ III telecom user traits vs metro users • Similar voice usage • Lower data consumption overall, but higher on mo i e as fi ed ser ices not readi a ai a e • More time spent on utility/messaging apps and less on entertainment/videos • ompara e mont rec ar e a e t o er average ticket size • Spend in smaller sachets not lump-sums, and favor pre-paid connections • Prefer physical stores for recharges/inquiries L eading Tel ecom O p erator N ational P roduct H ead ndian e ecom perator “ We see revenues growing faster in Tier II/III cities as penetration rises, and there are interesting variations in consumer behaviour across metros and Tier II/III markets. While voice usage is rising in both sets of cities, it is data growth which will require us to understand consumers even more intimately. For instance, we have seen that data usage leans towards utility in Tier II/III markets, whereas metro users consume more videos/ entertainment. Given the rise of vernacular content and improving smartphone penetration, the next frontier of growth will come from players who can demonstrate compelling use cases for Internet.” V odaf one L td. S iddh arth B anerj ee SVP-Marketing and H ead of Brand, Insights, Activation and Digital India “ The growth of H D penetration and consumption is the big story in today’ s broadcasting industry. While H D penetration it respect to t e nationa ase is at it is within the paid DTH base. As technology and hardware costs fall, we can expect a greater number of H D channel launches and a higher contribution to viewership. n terms of ier markets t ese cities era e e en e Per User has grown 7% y-o-y, 1-2% higher than in metros. The other key difference is the preference towards DTH , with penetration among TV households at 4 4 % relative to 35 % in metros. The attractive seasonal offers by DTH players, strategic consumer lock-in periods and intelligent channel packaging have further driven DTH growth in Tier II/III cities. With the lowering of base pack prices across all pro iders is fi tin ead on it di ita ca e in terms of price points too. “ C h rome D M P ank aj K rish na Founder Market T rends: D T H 5 2 DTH penetration in new wave cities has risen from 29 % in 2014 to 4 5 % in 2016, and markets like Varanasi, Allahabad and J amshedpur remain under-tapped. 9 4 % 69 % 63% 62% 61% 60% 5 9 % 5 6% 5 2% 5 2% 4 9 % 4 6% 4 6% 4 5 % 4 5 % 37% 26% 10% DH RD DH NB GUW RAIP VIJ Y MADU TRV WRNG AVG KOZ H TRCH J ALN KOTA H UBL GWAL BH UB KOCH J MSH % T V homes with D T H : D A S ph-III cities 76% 70% 66% 64 % 61% 5 9 % 5 4 % 5 3% 5 2% 4 7% 4 7% 4 7% 4 7% 4 5 % 4 2% 34 % 32% 30% 28% 28% 26% 21% 18% 16% 14 % 5 % AURA J BLP NASH J PR INDR NAGP BH OP RNCH AMRT J ODH RAJ K SURT VAD LUDH AVG MRUT PATN CH ND AGRA LUCK COIMB MYS KANP VIZ ALLH VARAN % T V homes with D T H : D A S ph-II cities ome racker rome na sis
  • 32. Untapped potential India’ s e-commerce industry, estimated to have reached INR 2100bn by end-2016, is projected to continue its rapid growth and quadruple in size by 20205 3 . Roughly 65 % of e-commerce sales today are being transacted through mobile devices, and this share is expected to increase to over 70% by 20205 4 . While rising middle-class incomes, smartphone adoption and developing 3G/4 G infrastructure will drive growth in this industry, some challenges with last-mile delivery remain. As the industry expands supply-chain networks beyond metros, identifying large viable markets with high purchasing power and internet usage becomes a priority. T op-10 untapped markets: Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Indore, J alandhar, Kanpur, Lucknow, Patna, Trivandrum, Vijayawada, Vizag AH M BNG CH EN DEL H YD J PR KOLK MUM PUNE SURT AMRT CH ND DH RD LUDH MYS NAGP VAD COIMB KOZ H BH OP BH UB INDR J ALN J MSH KOCH LUCK PATN TRV VIJ Y VIZ 80 100 120 14 0 160 180 200 220 24 0 20 30 4 0 5 0 60 70 80 9 0 Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population 20-39 y Annualexpenditurepercapita(INR000s,2015) Internet usage (index , 2011-16 composite) Market trends: E -commerce5 5 H ighlighted markets have the highest e-demand potential after the top-10 cities, but e-commerce supply-chains can be limited in these areas i ita ommerce eport n o a - ommerce itepaper - orrester a na sis t re of nternet in ndia - kamai arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e Facebook Ad Platform, 2016; EY Analysis 2016e Ad spend: E -commerce 24 % 3% 39 % INR 4 0bn TV Print Radio Other 34 % E-commerce 32 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 33. “ E-commerce solves the big problem of access and a ai a i it for peop e in non-metro areas er of order volumes on Snapdeal, come from Tier II/III cities. This indicates an evolution in consumer behaviour and expectations, leading to the growing adoption of e-commerce as a habit in these regions.” Initiatives taken to target T ier II/ III consumers • napdea as e panded to f fi ment centres across 25 cities-its fast delivery service SD+ now makes up 80% of orders, up from 7% in early-2015 . This has allowed it to shorten delivery times in Tier II/III cities to ~ 6 days • nap ite a mo i e-centric ersion t at is i ter in terms of bandwidth, providing a faster web experience in areas with slower network connectivity • Snapdeal launched a multilingual platform in 11 regional languages in December 2015 T ier II/ III E -commerce consumer traits • Very aspirational but have limited access to brands and products • re-dominant mo i e traffic app t sers can experience limited data connectivity • Prefer platforms in native languages • refer o as an pa ment option t rapid adoption of digital wallets • North-East ( including Guwahati) makes up for 6% of sales, and 12% in fashion ons mption patterns of o r ier c stomers differ to those in metros. They tend to favour the mobile channel, and due to a leisure-skew ( vs. corporate) , have longer stays, more passengers per booking and more advance bookings. This results in Tier II/III users having higher transaction values vs metros.” S nap deal C l eartrip J ayant S ood ief stomer perience fficer Aditya Ag arw al ead orporate trate “ The ( INR 780bn5 7 ) used-goods segment is driven by used mobiles, electronics, furniture, cars and 2-wheelers, and other household items. The share of listings from Tier II/III cities for many of these categories has increased from 35 % three years ago to almost 5 0% today. While consumption patterns and popular categories are more or less similar for Tier II/III and metro users, the growth of mobile as a category has been exceptional in Tier II/III markets as a result of growing consumer aspirations, and the availability of reasonably priced and good quality mobile phones on ome of t e ot er pcomin cate ories from ier cities on are tractors catt e and a ric t ra equipment.” O L X Amarj it S ing h B atra ndia H igh potential T ier II/ III used-good marketplaces • J aipur • Surat • Lucknow • Kochi • Aurangabad • oim atore • Trivandrum • Vadodara eartrip - r st r e ndians stock s cr ort unused goods” , Business Standard, Aug.2016 Metros Tier II/III cities % of C leartrip volumes56 5 3% 4 5 % 4 7% 5 5 % 65 % 71% Air H otel 35 % 29 % FY11 FY16 FY11 FY16
  • 34. Untapped potential India’ s education sector comprises more than 1.4 mn schools ( enrolling more than 227mn students) , 36,000 higher education institutes and 18,000 vocational training centres5 8 . Demand in this sector will be robust, with India set to have the world’ s largest tertiary-age population and second-largest graduate talent pipeline by 20205 9 . Foreign investment is also expected to pick up in this space, given the lack of FDI caps and a recent draft education policy that looks to encourage collaborations with the world’ s top 200 universities. While educational bodies are largely local in nature, identifying large growth hotspots can help education service providers tap into higher-potential opportunities. T op-10 untapped markets: Agra, Bhopal, Dhanbad, Indore, J aipur, J odhpur, Kota, Lucknow, Raipur, Ranchi DEL MUM BNG H YD AH M SURT CH EN J PR KOLK PUNE LUCK INDR AGRA BH OP AURA DH NB RNCH RAIP ALLH KOTA J ODH Size of bubble denotes total 2015 population < 20y %ofexistingschoolsestablishedsince 2001(percentage,2001-15) % of population < 20y (percentage, 2015) Market trends: E ducation60 The fastest growing education ecosystems have naturally occurred in the youngest cities- and these markets will continue to present opportunities for growth 5 % 10% 15 % 20% 25 % 30% 35 % 4 0% 4 5 % 5 0% 25 % 30% 35 % 4 0% 4 5 % 5 8. “ Industry and sectors – Education,” Ministry of External Affairs website, Government of India 5 9 . EY Analysis arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs c oo s esta is ed since istrict nformation System for Education, 2015 ; EY Analysis 2016e A d spend: E ducation 11% 78% 3% 9 % INR 24 bn TV Print Radio Other Education 34 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 35. “ Much of our traditional business continues to come from Tier II/III markets, and we are seeing more distributors setting up in these cities. There is greater saturation of schools in metros, with the unavailability of land becoming a particular challenge on the cost-side. As a result, the industry is seeing 5 -8% higher growth in many Tier II/III markets relative to metros.” S .C h and G roup Saurabh Mittal Chief Finance Officer D ifferences in T ier II/ III markets vs metros • ons mption does not ar m c cit -tier as curriculum, subjects, prescribed books etc. are similar, but higher growth markets include J aipur, Ranchi, Agra • Trend of Tier II/III schools/students moving from state exams in vernacular to central examinations in English • Tier II/III distribution is often more dependent on dealer networks, whereas metros require more direct tie-ups • Due to higher fees per student, metros face greater government regulation of price hikes, while Tier II/III areas have greater capacity to absorb such increases “ The aspiration of parents and students are the major driver for education services, more so than paying capacity. The focus of parents, whether in cosmopolitan metros or in Tier II/III cities, is on the quality of the best available schooling right from an early age. The awareness and exposure to major prestigious examinations has been on the rise across Tier II/III markets. As a result, enrolments in Tier II/III markets are substantial, and comprise 60-65 % of our total enrolments.” F I I TJ EE L td. R. L . T rikha D irector H igh growth markets include: Market T rends: E ducation Spends61 Unlike expenditures on most other goods, a household’ s spend on education is not closely tied to overall paying capacity. While households in the top-8 metros typically a ocate of tota e pendit re to ed cation t e fi re is 3-4 % for the new wave cities below. Apart from being younger, higher-growth markets in the future, such cities already present sizable opportunities for education service providers today. T op-20 cities: An nual ex penditure on education per household (INR 000s' s, 2015) 30.8 27.5 25 .6 25 .3 22.2 19 .9 19 .6 19 .3 18.9 18.5 18.1 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.4 16.7 16.7 16.1 15 .9 15 .6 CH ND VIZ LUCK INDR J PR MRUT H YD DH RD TRV BNG KOTA CH EN J ODH BH OP DEL MUM KANP PATN KOLK RAIP Metros New wave cities • J aipur • Lucknow • Vijayawada • Ranchi • Kota • Bhopal • Bihar • dis a • H aryana 61.“ Market Skyline” , Nielsen Micro Marketing & Economics, 2015 ; EY Analysis
  • 36. Untapped potential The value of deposits and credits in India’ s Scheduled ommercia ank ranc es s as tre ed since 62 . i en demoneti ation t e ro t of forma financia c anne s particularly digital services and mobile wallets, is set to continue. While the quantum of activity is driven by the top metros, various other high-growth hotspots have emerged. T op-10 untapped markets: Agra, Ahmedabad, Allahabad, Kozhikode, Nashik, Rajkot, Ranchi, Surat, Vijayawada, Warangal MUM DEL BNG H YD CH EN PUNE KOLK J PR AH M SURT RNCH RAJ K AGRA VIJ Y NASH ALLH KOZ H WRNG Size of bubble denotes total Q 4 2016 SCB deposits and credits 5yCAGR%ofnominalvalueofSCBdeposits+credits (percentage,FY12-16) 5y C A G R % of total SC B branches (percentage, FY 12-16) Market trends: B FSI62 Under-tapped markets 6% 8% 10% 12% 14 % 16% 18% 2% 3% 4 % 5 % 6% 7% 8% 9 % 10% “ Kotak’ s share of branches in the top-8 metros has reduced to toda from fi e ears a o it t e ne t Tier II/III cities making up 16% -18% . H igh potential cities include state capitals Ranchi and Raipur, as well as cities like Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot. While Kotak’ s services remain similar across markets, we have seen differences in consumer patterns. Tier II/III customers still prefer physical branches with ~ 35 % of customers using online services vs ~ 5 5 % in metros. But Tier II/III is showing faster digital adoption, especially on mobiles. As Tier II/III cities move from savings to investment, we are also seeing sales of mutual funds and insurance products catch up with traditiona prod cts ike fi ed deposits V irat D iw anj i Executive Vice President and H ead Branch Banking K otak M ah indra B ankBFSI 36 | India’ s growth paradigm arter tatistics on eposits and redits of s eser e ank of ndia - na sis 2016e A d spend: B FSI 31% 6% 36% INR 24 bn TV Print Radio Other 27%
  • 37. Untapped potential 31% 33% 34 % 34 % 34 % 37% 39 % 4 0% 4 0% 4 1% 4 1% 4 1% 4 2% 4 6% 5 0% 5 1% 5 2% 5 4 % 5 5 % 5 8% T op-20 new wave cities: Share of households without home ownership (percentage, 2011-13)65 C hange in residential housing prices (index 2007 = 100, 2007-15)67 88 9 7 102 115 14 5 160 163 163 168 168 169 173 179 187 188 19 0 19 0 19 5 200 212 215 238 239 25 1 364 Metros New wave cities Market T rends: Real E state The real estate markets in new wave cities are maturing, as consumers move up the value chain from rentals to ownership. ota t e fi e markets it t e o est rates of o ners ip are in ami ad and nd ra rades -and ma present ntapped opport nities for ome finance Apart from demand, prices are also driven by a lack of supply/execution delays, as reported in high-growth Bhopal and Lucknow66 - markets where there is scope for local developers to further expand footprints. Indian real estate markets are on a healthy long-run growth path, and will grow at 6-7% annually till 202063 . Government initiatives ike mart ities and U are e pected to oost p ic f ndin for housing, reforms to REITs will accelerate private investment and the home-buyer protection bill RERA is expected to raise cons mer confidence e stron ro t of credit faci ities i also continue to drive demand. In the short-term however, de- monetization is expected to have an impact and some markets may fall up to 30% in 201764 . Amid this volatility, some macro trends and longer-run movements are outlined for various cities. 63. “ India Real Estate Report 2016,” BMI Research, 2016; EY Analysis 64 . “ H ousing Prices to Drop” , ET, Nov.2016 ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs r e es ts ndian eaders ip r e na sis op ndian ities to n est n ct an e in re ate esidentia o sin rices ationa o sin ank eside - e ke dri ers for rea estate and o sin finance is the creation of jobs, while infrastructure like transport networks and power also play a major role. Supply-side follows demand-the shift from renting to ownership primarily occurs with rising disposable incomes created by better job opportunities. Today, the top-8 metros account for roughly 70% of home loans, but there is increasing traction coming from Tier II/ III cities. H igh potential markets include state capitals Raipur and Dehradun, along with cities in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil ad ike i a a ada and oim atore C onrad D ’ S ouz a Member of Executive Management H D F C L td.- H ousing F inanceReal estate India’ s growth paradigm | 37 2016e A d spend: Real estate 27% 4 7% 8% 18% INR 22bn TV Print Radio Other
  • 39. India’ s media industry is thriving. TV digitization, rising vernacular print circulation, smartphone adoption, FM radio auctions and expansion of multiplexes are all boosting media consumption, and have made India the world’ s fastest growing large advertising market68, 69 , 70 . Buoyed by these drivers, the domestic ad industry is expected to have reached INR 5 33bn in 2016, entering t e or d s top- ad markets for t e first time68, 69 . While demonetization is expected to have a short-term impact-roughly INR ~ 15 bn of ad spends were deferred in 2016 following the demonetization, the industry is expected to bounce back by Q 2 201771 . Backed by a robust economy and ongoing advertiser efforts to reach untapped cities beyond metros, growth will continue apace, and India is set to become the 6th largest global ad market by 202070 . Indian advertising market (INR bn)69 131 218 24 2 187 200 137 21 19 12 2.6 75 28 21 5 .0 9 6 30 23 5 .8 322 533 597 2012 2016e 2017p 2017p G rowth 10.7% TV 7.3% Print 13.3% Radio 16.0% Cinema 28.6% Digital 8.2% OOH 13.4 % CAGR% 12.0% CAGR% “ The Indian ad market is evolving, and we are seeing growth of smaller cities, as well as new clients in regional markets. Small town ad spend across all key mediums has grown at a of more t an in t e ast ears re ati e to t e nationa a era e is i et f rt er acce erated with more small screens in the country than big screens and digital leading the way, offering marketers more avenues to reach audiences at scale.” G roup M T ushar V y as ief trate fficer South Asia “ The media markets in Tier II/III cities are showing faster growth relative to those in metros. The expansion of meas rement into sma er to ns as e ped s ift TV spends, while rapidly improving online connectivity is broadening the digital marketplace in these cities.” M /S I X Raj it D esai Principal Partner arat or d d pend orecast ents - e is et ork n d pendit re orecast enit ptimedia ec 69 . EY industry discussions and analysis on media spends 70. “ World Media Spend Forecast” , IPG MagnaGlobal, J un.2016 i demonetisation impact on ad ertisin e s ort-term i emint ec itc adison d ertisin eport itc adison e India’ s growth paradigm | 39
  • 40. 4 0 | India’ s growth paradigm “ While TV has traditionally been a mass medium, various trends are increasin makin it a oca one • Market selection: atforms ike o rs are for t e first time i in ad ertisers t e option to tar et specific locales. These geo-targeting solutions have seen si nificant ptake not on from nationa rands it diverse customer bases, but regional SMEs/brands looking to foray into TV ads. • Niche content: Digitization is reducing analog constraints, and broadcasters are leveraging this by launching more niche channels and creating pro rammin for specific se ments • L anguage: metros and Tier II/III markets are largely homogenous in terms of content preferences, but differences are more pronounced at a regional level. Vernacular content is strongest in the South, with over 9 0% of viewership on regional channels. Marathi and Bengali also have sizable audiences, garnering 30-5 0% of local viewership. After this there is a drop- off, and other vernacular content has less than 10% share of local markets. When advertisers segment audiences like this-selecting the right markets, right programming and right languages for their messaging-they are often able to realize a 2-3% rise in market share.” Amag i M edia L ab s B askar Subramanian o- o nder ome racker rome enre- ise ie ers ip roadcast dience esearc o nci eek - eek As digitization continues to roll out across India’ s 175 mn TV households, the process has been largely completed in metros and new wave cities ( barring a few markets in Tamil Nadu like oim atore ric and ad rai 72 . This has bolstered both the quantum of content ( as more channels and packages become available) as well as its quality, with the rising proliferation of H D channels. This digital conversion is also allowing marketers the opportunity to break up a national TV audience into smaller target a diences for t e first time s eo-tar etin p atforms emer e it is no ecomin possi e to de i er messa es tai ored to specific audiences at a regional, state and even city-level. TV “ In terms of audience segmentation, India’ s 6 mega-cities and large urban clusters show similar viewership habits with respect to genre preferences and time spent. Instead, disparities are observed at the regional level. South Indian markets are heavier on TV consumption, with viewers in such states spending more time watching TV than the H SM market. The other key difference is in preference for genres, ere o t ndia s stron fi m c t re is re ected in i er ie ers ip of fi ms o er seria s B roadcast Audience R esearch C ouncil P artho D asgupta G enre-wise T V viewership73 FilmSerials News Other 4 7% 61% 5 6% 5 2% 21% 14 % 16% 17% 11% 8% 9 % 12% 21% 17% 19 % 19 % 5 south Indian states H indi-speaking markets ' Big cities' ( 1mn-7.5 mn population) 6 Metros
  • 41. While TV consumption varies little across city-tiers, print skews towards new wave cities. These markets in recent years recorded higher rates of readership, circulation and circulation growth relative to metros. o e er t is ske as not et een re ected in media p ans and -o- growth of ad volumes has been ~ 2% for both sets of cities. This trend of new wave markets achieving stronger circulation growth relative to their ad volume is shown below at a city-level. For instance, i e pro imate cities an a ore- sore e i- eer t and ennai- oim atore re istered compara e o me ro t to one anot er t e ne a e markets recorded si nificant i er ro t in readers A similar growth differential can be seen when comparing large markets such as J aipur, Lucknow and Patna to metros like Pune and Kolkata. Given new wave markets’ higher circulation growth, as well as economic growth prospects and untapped potential, there is scope for media plans to be re-calibrated towards such cities. Print DEL KOLK BNG H YD CH EN PUNE MUM CH ND VIZ J BLP NAGP MADU AH M TRCH VIJ Y LUDH J ALN AMRT H UBL DH NB J PR KANP LUCK VARAN COIMB KOCH MRUT TRV RAIP PATN ALLH KOTA RNCH J ODH AGRA GUW J MSH BH UB GWAL INDR MYS SURT Size of bubble denotes total 2015 circulation of sample publications AdvolumeCAGR%ofcontinuingpublications (percentage,FY13-16) C irculation C AG R% of continuing publications (percentage, 2012-15) Market-wise print trends76, 77, 78 -5 % -3% -1% 1% 3% 5 % 7% 9 % 11% -8% -6% -4 % -2% 0% 2% 4 % 6% 8% 10% 12% Positive circulation growth 61mn 62mn 8 Metros 4 2 new wave cities 2015 city population74 37% 4 1% 2013 readership of any publication75 7.5 mn 8.0mn 2015 circulation76 -2.5 % 2.9 % 2.0% 2.1% 2012-15 circulation CAGR% ( of continuing publications) 76, 78 2013-16 ad volume CAGR% ( of continuing publications) 77, 78 arket k ine ie sen icro arketin conomics ens s of ndia inistr of ome ffairs na sis 75 . “ Survey Results” , Indian Readership Survey, 2013; EY Analysis irc ation of eported ications dit rea of irc ation - 77. “ Ad Volume of Reported Publications” , TAM Adex, FY13-16 78. Editions were only considered if both adex and circulation data was available-sample had a total circulation of 15 .3mn in 2015 India’ s growth paradigm | 4 1
  • 42. Manish V ij o nder and SVG Media The easy availability of sub-US$ 15 0 smartphones and rapidly improving 3G/4 G infrastructure has allowed India’ s internet user base to balloon to nearly 5 00mn today79 ,80 . The key trends in this space include a heavy skew towards mobile, a surge in video content and under-tapped content ecosystems for women and vernacular languages. Digital “ The rapid rise of low-cost smartphones is allowing Tier II/ III and regional consumers to skip the traditional digital evolution, and close the loop on mobile itself. It has resulted in all digital mediums and cities to grow, particularly J aipur, rat andi ar adodara ri andr m oc i ckno satellite cities as well as state capitals, which tend to have better digital infrastructure.” S V G M edia Initiatives taken to target T ier II/ III consumers • Multi-lingual ads work especially well • Emphasized messaging clarity, especially in non-H D formats • ser ed con ersion rates of - on media partners that offer alternative mobile ecosystems ( browsers, app stores, launchers) These native ecosystems play a prominent role in user trust to download apps and various forms of content • Tier II/III users are keen to cut steps, and typically close transactions faster on mobile ( i.e. more tap-to-touch buyers) Share of Indian internet users on mobile in 2016, up from ~ 60% in 20138080% ideos s are of cons mer nternet traffic in 2020, up from 5 3% in 2015 8176% Global share of online content that is in Indian languages82< 0. 1% Share of women internet users in 2020, up from 25 % in 2013834 5% 70% Share of users consuming vernacular content in 2020, up from 4 5 % in 201383 23% Share of Indian Facebook users that are women, amongst the lowest rates in the world83,84 nternet rends n 80. “ Mobile Internet in India” , Internet and Mobile Association of India, Feb.2016; EY Analysis nn a is a et orkin nde isco 82. “ Proliferation of Indian Languages on Internet” , Internet and Mobile Association of India, Feb.2016 83. EY Analysis 84 . Facebook Ad Platform 2016 4 2 | India’ s growth paradigm Manish V ij o nder and
  • 43. 0 20 4 0 60 80 100 120 14 0 160 180 200 11th - 20th high potential cities 50newwavecities 3 3 1 1 Jaipur and Surat 9 2 Other cities 7 9 4 9 5 7 30 additional markets 7 1 1 9 8 2050 700 1650 2950 11150 8 metros 5 2 1 0 1 Number of FM radio frequencies85 Operational at end 2015 Sold in Ph- III auctions ( 1st batch, Aug. 2015 ) Sold in Ph-III auctions ( 2nd batch, Dec. 2016) 2015 radio market size (INR mn)83 85 . “ Auction Results” , Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, 2015 /16; EY Analysis FM radio continues to hold a unique niche in the Indian media landscape. It is an effective reminder medium that can be customized at a city-level, provides free experiences for less af ent cons mers and a so reac es ro ps it o er iterac levels. Recognizing the medium’ s ability to reinforce messaging and reach additional audiences, print conglomerates have expanded their radio presence and looked to form bouquets with their p ications is as occ rred at ot t e nationa e e e Radio Mirchi-The Times Group, Red FM-Sun Group, Big FM-RBNL/ ee edia orp - orp adio it - a ran rakas an e er - edia and re iona e e e e o - a ar ications adio an o- a a a a anorama o - e Mathrubhumi Group) . Such synergies, coupled with higher entry barriers relative to mediums like print and digital, resulted in ~ 80% of frequencies and ~ 9 0% of industry revenues to be held by the top-10 networks in FY 201683 . H aving served as the key players in radio’ s Phase-III auctions, these major networks are set to continue leading the industry’ s growth. Radio phase-III auctions India’ s radio market today is top-heavy, with the ten largest cities making up nearly two-thirds of total industry revenues. But the andscape is attenin it t e recent conc ded ase- frequency auctions, in which more than 14 0 frequencies were sold beyond the top-10 cities85 . As radio networks continue to operationalize these channels, the medium’ s reach in new wave cities and ot er sma er to ns is set to deepen si nificant Radio India’ s growth paradigm | 4 3 Indian FM radio landscape
  • 44. R ail w ays Mr Ranj an T hakur Executive Director, Non-Fare Revenue, Ministry of Railways, Government of India. n t e ack of a ar e increase in orkin -a e pop ation infrastr ct re de e opment and di ita si na e ndia s industry has recorded double-digit growth in recent years. While demonetization impacted this sector in 2016-17, new wave markets will help growth return to longer-term norms. Various o tdoor infrastr ct re initiati es are dri in and transit media opport nities in t ese cities inc din • perationa i ation of ne airports from - t e Airport Authority of India86 • Development of new metro rail systems in markets like J aipur, Kochi, Lucknow, Ludhiana and Nagpur87 • Road and highway construction through national industrial corridors e e i- m ai m ai- an a ore an a ore- ennai ennai- i a and mritsar- e i- o kata corridors) 88 While the industry is currently concentrated in the top metros ( over a third of revenues accrue to Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore89 ) - such infrastructure initiatives will cause this mix to c an e as more opport nities arise in ne a e cities ser es as a ea t and effecti e reminder medi m to and print ad ertisements and t is efficac is impro in f rt er it t e rise of di ita arketers are ein dra n to t is medium as it allows them to interact with consumers in real-time, target users at a granular area-level and also receive superior meas rement feed ack s a res t a t o di ita on comprises ~ 10% of the industry today, the segment is expected to grow ~ 25 % annually from 2016-19 9 0 . t of ome t of ome ad ertisin pro ides ast mi e connecti it with the consumer, creating a strong chance of top-of-mind reca t adds si nificant a e to t e media p an as it acts as a reminder medium that has low cost per contact and high visibility. As India’ s metros and major urban cities near saturation levels, especially in terms of economic growth, companies across a range of sectors are moving towards Tier II/ III cities. Indeed, this next tier of cities has already been delivering successful economic growth for the past decade. In terms of transit media, this medium focuses on marketing to consumers when they are “ on-the-go” in p ic p aces in transit in specific commercia ocations or waiting ( such as in a railway waiting room) . As brands better understand transit media’ s reach in smaller towns and the innovation techniques possible in this medium, they will be able to more effectively target consumers in Tier II/III cities.” M inistry of R ail w ays, G overnment of I ndia Ranj an T hakur Executive Director, Non-fare Revenue 4 4 | India’ s growth paradigm4 4 | India’ s growth paradigm 86. “ Airports Authority of India to revive 5 0 airports” , ET, Nov.2015 87. Government Metro Rail Portals, 2016 ake n ndia o ernment orta ndi id a nd stria orridor orta s 89 . “ Pitch Madison Advertising Report” , Pitch Madison, Feb.2017 i ita i take t e ind str storm esearc o t tdoor n
  • 45.
  • 47. India’ s growth paradigm | 4 7 T erm Definition Bn Billion ompo nd nn a ro t ate it e consider cities to on comprise t eir distinct r an areas per t e ens s of ndia- this does not include adjoining outgrowths/suburbs that make up the wider urban agglomeration De-monetization The Government of India' s initiatives around reforming money supply since November 2016, including the removal of existing INR 5 00 and INR 1000 banknotes from circulation DTH Direct-to-H ome FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product H ousehold income Value of combined gross income of a household INR Indian rupee etros ndian cities c assified as s c t e entra a ommission- c m ati e household income, these are the top-ranked cities in India Mn Million New wave cities 4 2 Indian cities with the greatest cumulative household income, after the 8 metros ea ross omestic rod ct ad sted for in ation Tier II/III cities A generic term used by featured industry professionals in referring to the next set of 30-5 0 cities after the metros Trn Trillion di iti ation con ersion on ersion of ana o ca e ser ices into i ita ddressa e stems Untapped potential A calculated index measuring the gap between consumer demand and business supply USD US Dollar Y-o-Y Year-on-Year
  • 48. otes 4 8 | India’ s growth paradigm
  • 49. otes India’ s growth paradigm | 4 9
  • 50. 5 0 | India’ s growth paradigm EY India has a dedicated marketing and advertising practice of more than 35 0 professionals across 15 key segments of the industry. We provide services to the top global brands including the largest advertisers, aggregating over 4 0% of total Indian advertising spends. We identify potential areas of savings by analyzing and recommending strategic, process driven and compliance related gaps/ practices which can e p c ient ac ie e o era efficienc and effecti eness in t eir marketin initiati es e are a so t e eadin pro ider of e ent risk management solutions in India since 19 9 9 . EY has been the process advisor to more than 300 awards. r arketin and d ertisin ractice Farokh T . B alsara Media & Entertainment Leader, EY India Through his 30 year career, Farokh has served clients in the media and entertainment industries and has assisted them in identifying process related risks and in developing controls to mitigate risks and in improving the efficienc and effecti eness of ke business processes. E : farokh.balsara@in.ey.com N rip endra S ing h , Director R adh ik a P radh an, Senior Manager Aditya L ah iri, Senior Consultant H arl een C h aw l a, Consultant N andini R ag h avendra A cknowledgements: For further information, please contact K arandeep Singh Manager, EY India Karandeep has over 9 years of experience in the media and marketing industry. H e has led multiple engagements in India and other SEA countries. E : karandeep.singh@in.ey.com B harat Raj amani Solution Leader, Marketing and Advertising Risk Services (MARS), EY India Bharat has over 20 years of work experience in EY specialising in MARS reviews for over 16 years. H e has conducted media plan optimization reviews, marketing spend reviews/agency compensation and performance reviews, below the line spend reviews, and digital media assessments for leading advertisers in India and Pan Asia cutting across ario s ind stries oi and as te ecom consumer durables, services, etc. E : bharat.rajamani@in.ey.com A miy a Swarup Director, Event Risk Management Amiya has been involved in conceptualisation, design and implementation of over 300 awards, contests, game shows and events across India E : amiya.swarup@in.ey.com For any comments or queries, please contact: R adh ik a P radh an T : 0 2 2 6 1 9 2 3 3 8 6 ; E : radh ik a.p radh an@ in.ey.com C reative T eam: Yash asw ita G aw ade, K ush al L el e, V inith a N air
  • 51. r offices A hmedabad 2 nd floor, Shivalik Ishaan N ear C .N . V idh yal aya Amb aw adi Ah medab ad- 3 8 0 0 1 5 Tel : + 9 1 7 9 6 6 0 8 3 8 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 7 9 6 6 0 8 3 9 0 0 B engaluru 6 th , 1 2 th & 1 3 th floor “ U B C ity” , C anb erra B l ock N o.2 4 V ittal M al l ya R oad B eng al uru- 5 6 0 0 0 1 Tel : + 9 1 8 0 4 0 2 7 5 0 0 0 + 9 1 8 0 6 7 2 7 5 0 0 0 + 9 1 8 0 2 2 2 4 0 6 9 6 F ax: + 9 1 8 0 2 2 1 0 6 0 0 0 G round F l oor, ‘A’ w ing D ivyasree C h amb ers # 1 1 , O ’ S h aug h nessy R oad L ang f ord G ardens B eng al uru- 5 6 0 0 2 5 Tel : + 9 1 8 0 6 7 2 7 5 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 8 0 2 2 2 2 9 9 1 4 C handigarh 1 st F l oor, S C O : 1 6 6 - 1 6 7 S ector 9 - C , M adh ya M arg C h andig arh - 1 6 0 0 0 9 Tel . + 9 1 1 7 2 3 3 1 7 8 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 1 7 2 3 3 1 7 8 8 8 C hennai Tidel P ark , 6 th & 7 th F l oor A B l ock ( M odul e 6 0 1 , 7 0 1 - 7 0 2 ) N o.4 , R aj iv G andh i S al ai Taramani, C h ennai- 6 0 0 1 1 3 Tel : + 9 1 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 1 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 4 4 2 2 5 4 0 1 2 0 D elhi NC R G ol f V iew C orp orate Tow er B S ector 4 2 , S ector R oad G urg aon- 1 2 2 0 0 2 Tel : + 9 1 1 2 4 4 6 4 4 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 1 2 4 4 6 4 4 0 5 0 3 rd & 6 th F l oor, W orl dmark - 1 I G I Airp ort H osp ital ity D istrict Aerocity, N ew D el h i- 1 1 0 0 3 7 Tel : + 9 1 1 1 6 6 7 1 8 0 0 0 F ax + 9 1 1 1 6 6 7 1 9 9 9 9 4 th & 5 th F l oor, P l ot N o 2 B Tow er 2 , S ector 1 2 6 N O I D A- 2 0 1 3 0 4 G autam B udh N ag ar, U .P . Tel : + 9 1 1 2 0 6 7 1 7 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 1 2 0 6 7 1 7 1 7 1 H y derabad Oval Office, 18, iLabs Centre H itech C ity, M adh ap ur H yderab ad- 5 0 0 0 8 1 Tel : + 9 1 4 0 6 7 3 6 2 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 4 0 6 7 3 6 2 2 0 0 Jamshedpur 1 st F l oor, S h antinik etan B uil ding H ol ding N o. 1 , S B S h op Area B istup ur, J amsh edp ur – 8 3 1 0 0 1 Tel : + 9 1 6 5 7 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 B S N L : + 9 1 6 5 7 2 2 3 0 4 4 1 K ochi 9 th F l oor, AB AD N ucl eus N H - 4 9 , M aradu P O K och i- 6 8 2 3 0 4 Tel : + 9 1 4 8 4 3 0 4 4 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 4 8 4 2 7 0 5 3 9 3 K olkata 2 2 C amac S treet 3 rd F l oor, B l ock ‘ C ’ K ol k ata- 7 0 0 0 1 6 Tel : + 9 1 3 3 6 6 1 5 3 4 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 3 3 2 2 8 1 7 7 5 0 Mumbai 1 4 th F l oor, Th e R ub y 2 9 S enap ati B ap at M arg D adar ( W ) , M umb ai- 4 0 0 0 2 8 Tel : + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 1 0 0 0 5 th F l oor, B l ock B - 2 N irl on K now l edg e P ark O f f . W estern Exp ress H ig h w ay G oreg aon ( E) M umb ai- 4 0 0 0 6 3 Tel : + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 2 2 6 1 9 2 3 0 0 0 P une C - 4 0 1 , 4 th floor P anch sh il Tech P ark Yerw ada ( N ear D on B osco S ch ool ) P une- 4 1 1 0 0 6 Tel : + 9 1 2 0 6 6 0 3 6 0 0 0 F ax: + 9 1 2 0 6 6 0 1 5 9 0 0
  • 52. About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. Ernst & Young LLP is one of the Indian client serving member firms of EYGM Limited. For more information about our organization, please visit www.ey.com/in. Ernst & Young LLP is a Limited Liability Partnership, registered under the Limited Liability Partnership Act, 2008 in India, having its registered office at 22 Camac Street, 3rd Floor, Block C, Kolkata - 700016 © 2017 Ernst & Young LLP. Published in India. All Rights Reserved. EYIN1703-020 ED None This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment. Neither Ernst & Young LLP nor any other member of the global Ernst & Young organization can accept any responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. On any specific matter, reference should be made to the appropriate advisor. VN Ernst & Young LLP EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory ey.com/in @EY_India EY|LinkedIn EY India EY India careers EY refers to the global organization, and/or one or more of the independent member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited