Cogswell college 20200120 v8 copy

IBM Introduction:
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
Jim Spohrer
Director, IBM Cognitive OpenTech
with Catherine Diep, and Peter Tan
Presentations on line at: http://slideshare.net/spohrer

Narrow AI
Emerging
Broad AI
Disruptive and
Pervasive
General AI
Revolutionary
▼ We are here 2050 and beyond 2IBM Research AI © 2018 IBM Corporation
The evolution of AI
Borrowed from David Cox, IBM-MIT Lead

Smartphones pass entrance exams? When?
1/20/2020 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 3
… when will
your smartphone
be able to take and
pass any online
course? And then
be your coach, so
you can pass too?

“Teddy Bear”
Meret Oppenheim, Le Déjeuner en fourrure

6September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
Petaflops = 1,000,000,000,000,000 or a
million billion = 10 ** 17
Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6
Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9
Larges Super Computer in the World,
= 13 MegaWatts of Power (HOT!)

7September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
Exascale = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 or a
billion billion = 10 ** 18
Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6
Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9
Human Brain
= 20 Watts (COOL!)

Timeline: Short History
1/20/2020
© IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG)
8
Dota 2
“Deep Learning” for
“AI Pattern Recognition”
depends on massive
amounts of “labeled data”
and computing power
available since ~2012;
Labeled data is simply
input and output pairs,
such as a sound and word,
or image and word, or
English sentence and French
sentence, or road scene
and car control settings –
labeled data means having
both input and output data
in massive quantities.
For example, 100K images
of skin, half with skin
cancer and half without to
learn to recognize presence
of skin cancer.

Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
91/20/2020 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

1/20/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 11

1/20/2020 12
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Better Building Blocks

10 million minutes of experience
1/20/2020 Understanding Cognitive Systems 13

2 million minutes of experience
1/20/2020 Understanding Cognitive Systems 14

1/20/2020
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
15
I have…
Have you noticed how the building blocks just
keep getting better?

Learning to program:
My first program
1/20/2020
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
16
Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972

1/20/2020
© IBM UPWard 2016
17
Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…

IBM Quantum
1/20/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 22

Artificial Leaf
• Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy
science at Harvard who pioneered the
use of artificial photosynthesis, says that
he and his colleague Pamela Silver have
devised a system that completes the
process of making liquid fuel from
sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And
they’ve done it at an efficiency of 10
percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in
other words, one-tenth of the energy in
sunlight is captured and turned into fuel.
That is much higher than natural
photosynthesis, which converts about 1
percent of solar energy into the
carbohydrates used by plants, and it
could be a milestone in the shift away
from fossil fuels. The new system is
described in a new paper in Science.
1/20/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 23

Food from Air
• Although the technology is in its infancy,
researchers hope the "protein reactor"
could become a household item.
• Juha-Pekka Pitkänen, a scientist at VTT,
said: "In practice, all the raw materials
are available from the air. In the future,
the technology can be transported to,
for instance, deserts and other areas
facing famine.
• "One possible alternative is a home
reactor, a type of domestic appliance
that the consumer can use to produce
the needed protein."
• According to the researchers, the
process of creating food from electricity
can be nearly 10 times as energy
efficient as photosynthesis, the process
used by plants.

Exoskeletons for Elderly
• A walker is a “very cost-effective”
solution for people with limited
mobility, but “it completely
disempowers, removes dignity,
removes freedom, and causes a
whole host of other psychological
problems,” SRI Ventures president
Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s
goal is to remove all of those areas
that cause psychological-type
encumbrances and, ultimately,
redignify the individual."

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