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Jaist 20180228 v4

Preparing for out future with open Artificial Intelligence: A service science perspective

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Jaist 20180228 v4

  1. 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) JAIST World Conference Wednesday February 28, 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/jaist-20180228-v4 2/28/2018 1 Preparing for Our Future with Open Artificial Intelligence (AI): A Service Science Perspective
  2. 2. Thank-you for invitation 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 2 Thank-you Prof. Youji Kodha Md. Abul Kalam Siddike … and green beetle car driver
  3. 3. Quantum Computer 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 3
  4. 4. Four Books 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 4
  5. 5. Past and Future • Scientific progress increases our understanding of the past, but what does it tell us about preparing for the future? • What is our responsibility to future generations? – Kline: “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” • References: – Kline (1995) Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking. – Wright (2001) Non-Zero: The Logic of Human Destiny. – Deacon (2011) Incomplete Nature: How Mind Emerged from Matter. – Domingos (2015) The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine will Remake Our World. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 5
  6. 6. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 6 Explain external phenomena
  7. 7. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 7 Explain internal phenomena
  8. 8. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 8 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  9. 9. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 9 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  10. 10. SYSK Evolution 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 10 AEIOU = Abstract Entity Interaction Outcome Universals
  11. 11. IBM’s Service Journey 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 11
  12. 12. 12 Henry Chesbrough at Berkeley sent some of us a paper… Henry suggested IBM “help to do it again; you need it, others do too” academics and government to establish Service Science The biggest costs were in changing the organization. One way to think about these changes is to treat the Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset. Firms make investments over time in developing anew process, rebuilding their staff or designing a new organizational structure, and the benefits from these Investments are realized over a long period of time.” Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”
  13. 13. 13 What disciplines to hire to be the best in service innovation? The center balances three key factors Technology & Information Business & Value People & Organizations 5 1 9 2527 14 28 10 26 24 8 4 1. Service Engineering 2. Service Operations 3. Service Management 4. Service Marketing 5. Social Complexity 6. Agent-based comput- ational economics 7. Computational Organization Theory 14. Computer & Information Sciences 15. Management of Innovation 16. Organization Theory 17. Operations Research 18. Systems Engineering 19. Management Science 20. Game Theory 21. Industrial Engineering 22. Marketing 23. Managerial Psychology 236 7 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1990-2004 1960-1990 1900-1960 Before 1900 8. Management of Technology 9. Experimental Economics 10. AI & Games 11. Management of Information Systems 12. Computer Supported Collab. Work (CSCW) 13. Human Capital Management 24. Business Administration (MBA) 25. Economics 26. Law 27. Sociology 28. Education
  14. 14. Service Science is just…. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 14
  15. 15. Service Science 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 15
  16. 16. Service Science • IBM helped to establish Computer Science from 1945-1975 • IBM SSME (2002-present); Twelve concepts/ISPAR model • References – Spohrer, J., & Maglio, P. P. (2008). The emergence of service science: Toward systematic service innovations to accelerate co‐creation of value. Production and operations management, 17(3), 238-246. – Spohrer, J. C. (2011). On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or “It's all B2B… and beyond!”. Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199-201. – Spohrer, J., Kwan, S. K., & Fisk, R. P. (2014). Marketing: a service science and arts perspective. Handbook of service marketing research, 489-526. – Spohrer, J. (2017). IBM's service journey: A summary sketch. Industrial Marketing Management, 60, 167-172. 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 16
  17. 17. Service-Dominant Logic 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 17
  18. 18. SYSK DIKUW 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG 2018 18 (K)Nowing 1 (K)Nowing 2 (K)Nowing 3 (K)Nowing 4 (K)Nowing 5
  19. 19. 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 19 AI (Artificial Intelligence) is popular again… you see it mentioned on billboards in SF However, pattern recognition does not equal AI Deep learning works if you have lots of data and compute power We finally have lots of data and compute power – hurray!!! So finally, deep learning for pattern recognition is working pretty well However, AI is more than deep learning for pattern recognition… AI requires commonsense reasoning – that will take another 5-10 years of research How do we know this? Look at the AI leaderboards – we will get to that…
  20. 20. TED Arai Todai Robot 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 20 … when will your smartphone be smart enough to pass a university entrance exam?
  21. 21. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21
  22. 22. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 222/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  23. 23. GDP/Employee 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 23 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  24. 24. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 24 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  25. 25. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: – John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) – Marvin Minsky (MIT) – and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 26
  26. 26. AI Trends 2/28/2018 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 27 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  27. 27. AI Leaders • Who is winning? – Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW – Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards – SQuAD – Question Answering – EFF Measuring AI Progress 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 28
  28. 28. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data – Speech, image, translation, driverless, games – Chatbots as digital assistants • 2018 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2024 Commonsense Reasoning • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2028 Learning from Doing • 2030 Fluent Conversation • 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 29
  29. 29. AI Benefits • Access to expertise – “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers – Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices – ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most – AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 30
  30. 30. AI Risks • Job Loss – Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence – Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 31
  31. 31. 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 32
  32. 32. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) – Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems – Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems – Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 33
  33. 33. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  34. 34. Stakeholders • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups • Regional Governments: – Cities – States – Nations 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 35
  35. 35. 2/28/2018 36 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
  36. 36. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities – Leaderboards – Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) – Read arXiv – Redo with Github – Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch – Build your open code eminence – Understand open innovation – Communities + Leaderboards 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 37 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  37. 37. GitHub and Kaggle 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 38
  38. 38. Kaggle 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 39
  39. 39. Kaggle 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 40
  40. 40. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 41 AI for NLP entity identification
  41. 41. Courses • 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 2/28/2018 42 Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
  42. 42. Headlines • 2017 Popular – “AI vs People” – “X-Y team up to invest big in AI” • 2025 Commonplace – “People using AI to become better at their professions, serving others.” – “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges, and improve their communities.” • 2085 Resilience – “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild socio-economic-technical systems (wise service systems) from scratch” – “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery about nature of universe. U.F.P. established.” 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 43 IEEE 2017
  43. 43. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 44
  44. 44. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 45 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  45. 45. Learning to program: My first program 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 46 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  46. 46. 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 47 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
  47. 47. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 48
  48. 48. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 49
  49. 49. IBM Image Tagging 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 50
  50. 50. Today: November 10, 2017 2/28/2018 © IBM DBG COG 2017 51 IBM
  51. 51. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 52 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  52. 52. Occupations = Many Tasks 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 53
  53. 53. Watson Discovery Advisor 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 54 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  54. 54. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborator • Coach • Mediator 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 55
  55. 55. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 56 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ Cognitive Tool Cognitive Assistant Cognitive Collaborator Cognitive Coach Cognitive Mediator
  56. 56. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 57
  57. 57. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 58
  58. 58. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 59
  59. 59. Measuring AI Progress 2/28/2018 © IBM COG 2017 60
  60. 60. Future-Ready T-Shapes 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 61
  61. 61. In Summary 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 62 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  62. 62. In Sum • Service science studies the evolving ecology of service system entities • Future: Miniaturization and Lower Costs – Smartphones + AI = Low-Cost Digital Workers = Miniaturization of Expertise Economy – Material + Energy Sciences = Low-Cost Local Factories and Farms = Miniaturization of Things Economy – Blockchain = Local-Cost Trust = Miniaturization of Justice Economy (Government global cost of 25T ready for disruption) – AR/VR = Getting used to the the responsibilities of super-powers = Putting the world in a box = Miniaturization of Super-Powers Economy • Prepare: Opentech AI and Leaderboard Challenges – Best way to prepare is master GitHub and Kaggle - open challenge leaderboards; and focus on resilience and better building blocks (rapidly rebuilding from scratch) 2/28/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 63
  63. 63. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 64
  64. 64. AI Trends 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 65
  65. 65. Courses 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 2/28/2018 66
  66. 66. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 2/28/2018 67 2035 2055
  67. 67. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 68
  68. 68. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 69
  69. 69. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 70
  70. 70. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 71
  71. 71. What exists in 2016? 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 72 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  72. 72. User Models 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 73
  73. 73. $5M Prize 2/28/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 74
  74. 74. “AI will change the world? Who will change AI?” 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 75
  75. 75. “These amazing technologies must be able to help people like myself…” 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 76
  76. 76. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 77 Future of Skills
  77. 77. Recent press…
  78. 78. Real reading and Q&A is hard
  79. 79. Good science = Reproducibility
  80. 80. In Conclusion • Hundreds of AI Challenge Leaderboards exist and the number is growing • Can one system be built to do them all? See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
  81. 81. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) – Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives – Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes – Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 2/28/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 82
  82. 82. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 83
  83. 83. Prepare for AI Future • Do you have a GitHub account? – Yes: proceed – No: sign up • Do you program? – Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report) – No: Learn to read and execute code (cheat T2T) • Do you have favorite AI leaderboards? – Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s – No: Find a mentor with favorites, do together • AI prepared = Favorites you can 3 R together • … until you find the one favorite that can do them all 2/28/2018 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group 2018 84
  84. 84. You say you want a revolution? October 8, 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/revolution-20171008-v23 2/28/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 85
  85. 85. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 2/28/2018 86 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
  86. 86. In Summary 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 87 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  87. 87. 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 88
  88. 88. The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 89
  89. 89. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  90. 90. Dedication: Doug Engelbart Father of the mouse and augmentation theory 2/28/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 91

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