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The Future of AI
Jim from IBM (Jim Spohrer)
Director, Measuring AI Progress Cognitive Opentech Group (MAP COG)
See Center for Opensource Data and AI Technologies (CODAIT), http://codait.org
WeB2018, University of Santa Clara, CA, USA, December 12, 2018
https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/web-20181212-v2
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 1
Thank-you to
the organizers
12/12/2018
(c) IBM MAP COG .| 2
Michael Shaw
Conference Chair
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Today’s talk
• Introduction
• AI at IBM: Past, Present, Future (Summary)
• Types of Systems: Information Systems, Physical
Symbol Systems, Service Systems, Cognitive
Systems, etc.
• AI at the peak of the hype cycle
• What’s really going on?
• Your data is becoming your AI… IA transformation
• Part 1: Solving AI: Leaderboards
• Roadmap and implications
• Open technologies, innovation
• Part 2: Solving IA: Better Building Blocks
• Solving problems faster, creates new problems
• Identity, social contracts, trust, resilience
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AI at IBM: Past (Nathan Rochester)
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Center for Open Source
Data and AI Technologies
September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
Watson West Building
505 Howard St.
San Francisco, California
CODAIT aims to make AI solutions dramatically
easier to create, deploy, and manage in the
enterprise.
Relaunch of the IBM Spark Technology Center
(STC) to reflect expanded mission.
36 open source developers!
Improving Enterprise AI lifecycle in Open Source
Gather
Data
Analyze
Data
Machine
Learning
Deep
Learning
Deploy
Model
Maintain
Model
Python
Data Science
Stack
Fabric for
Deep Learning
(FfDL)
Mleap +
PFA
Scikit-LearnPandas
Apache
Spark
Apache
Spark
Jupyter
Model
Asset
eXchange
Keras +
Tensorflow
CODAIT
codait.org
7
The following slides from
Fred’s ApacheCon keynote
IBMers using
OSS
IBMers
contributing to
OSS
CODAIT
Active IBM Users of Open Source
(Certified to consume and/or contribute open source in 2018)
8September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
>62,000
>1,000
9September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
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accelerating regional development
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Complex Systems…
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What is a biological cognitive system (entity)?
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What is a Service System Entity?
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© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
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“A service science perspective considers
the evolving ecology of service system
entities, their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation interactions, and
their capabilities, constraints, rights, and
responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
Computer Science as Empirical Inquiry:
Symbols and Search
• "Computer science is the study of the phenomena surrounding computers. ... We
build computers and programs for many reasons. We build them to serve society
.... One of the fundamental contributions to knowledge of computer science has
been to explain, at a rather basic level, what symbols are. ... Symbols lie at the
root of intelligent action, which is, of course, the primary topic of artificial
intelligence. For that matter, it is a primary question for all of computer science.
For all information is processed by computers in the service of ends, and we
measure the intelligence of a system by its ability to achieve stated ends in the
face of variations, difficulties and complexities posed by the task environment…
A physical symbol system is a machine that produces through time an evolving
collection of symbol structures. Such a system exists in a world of objects wider
than just these symbolic expressions themselves. ”
• Tenth Turing Awards Lecture: Allen Newell and Herbert A. Simon, “Computer
Science as Empirical Inquiry: Symbols and Search,”Communications of the ACM.
vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 113-126, March,1976. Available online at:
• https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~kuipers/readings/Newell+Simon-cacm-76.pdf
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Service-Dominant logic worldview and mindset
Year Publication Service Resource Integrators
2004 Vargo SL, Lusch RF (2004)
Evolving to a new dominant
logic for marketing. Journal of
marketing. 68(1):1-7.
The application of specialized skills
and knowledge is the fundamental
unit of exchange.
Operant resources are resources that
produce effects
2011 Vargo SL, Lusch RF (2011) It's
all B2B… and beyond: Toward
a systems perspective of the
market. Industrial marketing
management. 40(2):181-7.
The central concept in S-D logic is
that service — the application of
resources for the benefit of another
party — is exchanged for service
That is, all parties (e.g. businesses,
individual customers, households, etc.)
engaged in economic exchange are
similarly, resource-integrating, service-
providing enterprises that have the
common purpose of value (co)creation —
what we mean by “it is all B2B.”
2016 Vargo SL, Lusch RF.
Institutions and axioms: an
extension and update of
service-dominant logic.
Journal of the Academy of
Marketing Science. 2016 Jan
1;44(1):5-23.
value creation can only be fully
understood in terms of integrated
resources applied for another
actor’s benefit (service) within a
context, including the institutions
and institutional arrangements that
enable and constrain value creation.
To alleviate this limitation and facilitate a
better understanding of cooperation (and
coordination), an eleventh foundational
premise (fifth axiom) is introduced, focusing
on the role of institutions and institutional
arrangements in systems of value
cocreation: service ecosystems.12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 15
Service Science the study of service systems entities
Year Publication Service Science Service System
2007 Spohrer J, Maglio, PP, Bailey J,
Gruhl, D (2007) Steps toward
a science of service
systems, IEEE Computer,
(40)1:71-77.
Services science is an emerging field
that seeks to tap into these and
other relevant bodies of knowledge,
integrate them, and advance three
goals—aiming ultimately to
understand service systems, how
they improve, and how they scale.
The components of a service system are
people, technology, internal and external
service systems connected by value
propositions, and shared information (such
as language, laws, and measures.
2008 Spohrer, J, Vargo S, Caswell N,
Maglio PP (2008) The service
system is the basic abstraction
of service science, HICSS-41,
NY: IEEE Press, Pp. 1-10.
Service science is the study of the
application of the resources of one
or more systems for the benefit of
another system in economic
exchange.
Informally, service systems are
collections of resources that can
create value with other service systems
through shared information.
2008 Maglio PP, Spohrer J (2008)
Fundamentals of service
science. Journal of the
academy of marketing
science. 36(1):18-20.
Service science is the study of
service systems, aiming to create a
basis for systematic service
innovation.
Service systems are value-co-creation
configurations of people, technology, value
propositions connecting internal and
external service systems, and shared
information (e.g., language, laws, measures,
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Service Science the study of service system entities
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Year Publication Service Science Service System
2009 Spohrer J, Maglio PP (2009)
Service science: Toward a
smarter planet. In
Introduction to service
engineering, Eds. Karwowski
and Salvendy. Pp. 3-10
Service science is a specialization of
systems science. So service science
seeks to create a body of knowledge
that accounts for value-cocreation
between entities as they interact…
Service system entities are dynamic
configurations of resources. As described
below, resources include people,
organizations, shared information, and
technology.
2012 Spohrer J, Piciocchi P, Bassano
C (2012) Three frameworks
for service research: exploring
multilevel governance in
nested, networked systems.
Service Science. 4(2):147-160.
SSME+D is built on top of the
Service-Dominant logic (SD Logic)
worldview
A service system entity is a dynamic
configuration of resources (at least one of
which, the focal resource, is a person with
rights).
2013 Spohrer J, Giuiusa A,
Demirkan H, Ing D (2013)
Service science: reframing
progress with universities.
Systems Research and
Behavioral Science. 30(5):561-
569
Service science is an emerging
branch of systems sciences with a
focus on service systems (entities)
and value cocreation (complex non-
zero-sum interactions).
… complex adaptive entities - service
systems - within an ecology of nested,
networked entities… From a service science
perspective, progress can be thought of in
terms of the rights and responsibilities of
entities
Service Science the study of service system entities
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Year Publication Service Science Service System
2014 Spohrer J, Kwan SK, Fisk RP
(2014)Marketing: a service sci
ence and arts perspective,
Handbook of Service Market
ing Research, Eds. Rust RT,
Huang MH, NY:Edward Elgar,
pp. 489-526.
Service science (short for Service
Science, Management, Engineering,
Design, Arts, and Public Policy) is an
emerging transdiscipline for the (1)
study of evolving service system
entities and value co-creation
phenomena, as well as (2) pedagogy
for the education of 21st century T-
shaped service innovators from all
disciplines, sectors, and cultures.
So like all early stage scientific
communities, the language for talking
about service systems and value co-creation
phenomena continues to evolve. … Service
system entities are economic and social
actors, which configure (or integrate)
resources. … A formal service system entity
(SS-FSC3) is a legal, economic entity with
rights and responsibilities codified in
written laws.
2015 Spohrer J, Demirkan H,
Lyons (2015) Social Value: A
Service Science Perspective.
In: Kijima K. (eds) Service
Systems Science. Translational
Systems Sciences, vol 2.
Tokyo: Springer. Pp. 3-35.
Service science is an emerging
transdiscipline for the (1) study of
evolving service system entities and
value co-creation phenomena and
(2) pedagogy for the education of
twenty-first-century T-shaped
service innovators from all
disciplines, sectors, and cultures
Formal service system entities (as opposed
to informal service system entities) can be
ranked by the degree to which they are
governed by written (symbolic) laws and
evolve to increase the percentage of their
processes that are explicit and symbolic.
Service Science the study of service system entities
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Year Publication Service Science Service System
2016 Spohrer J (2016) Services
Science and Societal
Convergence. In W.S.
Bainbridge, M.C. Roco
(eds.),Handbook of Science
and Technology Convergence,
pp. 323-335
Service science is an emerging
transdiscipline for the (1) study of
evolving ecology of nested,
networked service system entities
and value co-creation phenomena,
as well as (2) pedagogy for the
education of the twenty-first-
century T-shaped (depth and
breadth) service innovators from all
disciplines, sectors, and cultures.
As service science emerges, we can begin
by “seeing” and counting service system
entities in an evolving ecology, working to
“understand” and make explicit their
implicit processes of valuing …
2016 Spohrer J (2016) Innovation
for jobs with cognitive
assistants: A service science
perspective, In Disrupting
Unemployment ,
Eds. Nordfors, Cerf,
Seng, Missouri: Ewing Marion
Kauffman Foundation, Pp.
157-174.
Service science is the emerging
transdiscipline that studies the
evolving ecology of nested,
networked service system entities,
their capabilities, constraints, rights,
and responsibilities.
There are perhaps twenty billion formal
service system entities in the world today,
each governed in part by formal written
laws. Every person, household, university,
business, and government is a formal
service system entity, but my dog, my
smartphone, and my ideas are not.
Service Science the study of service system entities
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Year Publication Service Science Service System
2017 Spohrer J, Siddike MAK,
Kohda Y (2017) Rebuilding
evolution: a service science
perspective. HICSS 50.
Service science is the study of the
evolving ecology of service system
entities, complex socio-technical
systems with rights and
responsibilities – such as people,
businesses, and nations.
Service systems are dynamic configurations
of people, technology, organization and
information that interact through value
proposition and co- create mutual value.
2019 Pakalla D, Spohrer J (2019,
forthcoming) Digital Service:
Technological Agency in
Service Systems. HICSS 52.
For the purposes of this paper,
service science can be summarized
as the study of the evolving ecology
of service system entities, their
capabilities, constraints, rights, and
responsibilities, including their
value co-creation and capability co-
elevation mechanisms .
Service systems are a type of socio-
technical system, such as people,
businesses, and nations, all with unique
identities, histories, and reputations based
on the outcomes of their interactions with
other entities.
Service Science: Conceptual Framework
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Brian Arthur - Economist
• The term “technological unemployment” is from John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 lecture,
“Economic possibilities for our grandchildren,” where he predicted that in the future, around
2030, the production problem would be solved and there would be enough for everyone, but
machines (robots, he thought) would cause “technological unemployment.” There would be
plenty to go around, but the means of getting a share in it, jobs, might be scarce. We are not quite
at 2030, but I believe we have reached the “Keynes point,” where indeed enough is produced by
the economy, both physical and virtual, for all of us. (If total US household income of $8.495
trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn $73,000, enough for
a decent middle-class life.) And we have reached a point where technological unemployment is
becoming a reality. The problem in this new phase we’ve entered is not quite jobs, it is access to
what’s produced. Jobs have been the main means of access for only 200 or 300 years. Before
that, farm labor, small craft workshops, voluntary piecework, or inherited wealth provided access.
Now access needs to change again. However this happens, we have entered a different phase for
the economy, a new era where production matters less and what matters more is access to that
production: distribution, in other words—who gets what and how they get it. We have entered
the distributive era.
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Disciplines and some of the key entities they study
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Computer Science: Physical Symbol System Entities
AI: Digital Cognitive System Entities
Chemistry: Auto-Catalytic Molecular System Entities
Biology: Biological Cognitive System Entities
Service science: Service system entities
Service science studies the evolving ecology
of service system entities,
their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation interactions, as well as
their outcome identities and reputations.
Service Research
• Artificial Intelligence in Service
• "The theory specifies four intelligences required for service tasks—mechanical,
analytical, intuitive, and empathetic—and lays out the way firms should decide
between humans and machines for accomplishing those tasks.”
• Huang MH and Rust RT (2018) Artificial Intelligence in Service. Journal of
Service Research. 21(2):155–172.
• Customer Acceptance of AI in Service Encounters: Understanding
Antecedents and Consequences
• "expand the relevant set of antecedents beyond the established constructs and
theories to include variables that are particularly relevant for AI applications
such as privacy concerns, trust, and perceptions of “creepiness.”
• Ostrom AL, Foheringham D, Bitner MJ (2018, forthcoming) Customer
Acceptance of AI in Service Encounters: Understanding Antecedents and
Consequences. In Handbook of Service Science, Volume 2, Eds, Maglio,
Kieliszewski,Spohrer,Lyons,Patricio,Sawatani. New York: Springer. Pp. x-y.
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AI (Artificial Intelligence) is popular again… you see it mentioned on billboards in SF
However, pattern recognition does not equal AI
Deep learning works if you have lots of data and compute power
We finally have lots of data and compute power – hurray!!!
So finally, deep learning for pattern recognition is working pretty well
However, AI is more than deep learning for pattern recognition…
AI requires commonsense reasoning – that will take another 5-10 years of research
How do we know this? Look at the AI leaderboards – we will get to that…
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Smartphones pass entrance exams? When?
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… when will
your smartphone
be able to take and
pass any online
course? And then
be your coach, so
you can pass too?
IBM-MIT $240M
over 10 year AI mission
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Icons of AI Progress
• 1956: Dartmouth Conference
organized by:
• John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later
Stanford)
• Marvin Minsky (MIT)
• and two senior scientists:
• Claude Shannon (Bell Labs)
• Nathan Rochester (IBM)
• 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess
• 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM)
• 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds)
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Questions
• What is the timeline for solving AI and IA?
• Who are the leaders driving AI progress?
• What will the biggest benefits from AI be?
• What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real?
• What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI?
• What are the implications for stakeholders?
• How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks?
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Timeline: Short History
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Dota 2
“Deep Learning” for
“AI Pattern Recognition”
depends on massive
amounts of “labeled data”
and computing power
available since ~2012;
Labeled data is simply
input and output pairs,
such as a sound and word,
or image and word, or
English sentence and French
sentence, or road scene
and car control settings –
labeled data means having
both input and output data
in massive quantities.
For example, 100K images
of skin, half with skin
cancer and half without to
learn to recognize presence
of skin cancer.
Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
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2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
Timeline: GDP/Employee
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(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
Timeline: Leaderboards FrameworkAI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
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Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
Who is winning
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https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608112/who-is-winning-the-ai-race/
Robots by Country
• Industrial robots per 10,000 people by country
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34
Sweden
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Economic Growth Rates 2035: AI Projected Impact
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AI Benefits
• Access to expertise
• “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers
• Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc.
• Better choices
• ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most
• AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions
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AI Risks
• Job Loss
• Shorter term bigger risk
= de-skilling
• Super-intelligence
• Shorter term bigger risk
= bad actors
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Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes.
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Game worlds
grow-up
• Blockchain/
Security Systems
• Trust and security
immutable
• Advanced Materials/
Energy Systems
• Manufacturing as cheap,
local recycling service
(utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.)
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Stakeholders = service system entities
• Individuals
• Families
• Businesses and
other Organizations
• Industry Groups and
Professional Associations
• Regional
Governments:
• Cities
• States
• Nations
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“there is nothing as practical as a good abstraction” -> service science studies service system entities
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
Artificial Leaf
• Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy
science at Harvard who pioneered the
use of artificial photosynthesis, says that
he and his colleague Pamela Silver have
devised a system that completes the
process of making liquid fuel from
sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And
they’ve done it at an efficiency of 10
percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in
other words, one-tenth of the energy in
sunlight is captured and turned into fuel.
That is much higher than natural
photosynthesis, which converts about 1
percent of solar energy into the
carbohydrates used by plants, and it
could be a milestone in the shift away
from fossil fuels. The new system is
described in a new paper in Science.
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Food from Air
• Although the technology is in its infancy,
researchers hope the "protein reactor"
could become a household item.
• Juha-Pekka Pitkänen, a scientist at VTT,
said: "In practice, all the raw materials
are available from the air. In the future,
the technology can be transported to,
for instance, deserts and other areas
facing famine.
• "One possible alternative is a home
reactor, a type of domestic appliance
that the consumer can use to produce
the needed protein."
• According to the researchers, the
process of creating food from electricity
can be nearly 10 times as energy
efficient as photosynthesis, the process
used by plants.
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Exoskeletons for Elderly
• A walker is a “very cost-effective”
solution for people with limited
mobility, but “it completely
disempowers, removes dignity,
removes freedom, and causes a
whole host of other psychological
problems,” SRI Ventures president
Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s
goal is to remove all of those areas
that cause psychological-type
encumbrances and, ultimately,
redignify the individual."
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Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055
Be Prepared
• Understand open AI code + data +
models + stacks + communities
• Leaderboards
• Ethical conduct
• Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive
Opentech Group (COG)
• Read arXiv
• Redo with Github
• Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX
and/or leaderboards
• Improve your team’s skills of rapidly
rebuilding from scratch
• Build your open code eminence
• Understand open innovation
• Communities + Leaderboards
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1972 used
Punch cards
2016 used
IBM Watson
Open APIs to win…
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Better Building Blocks
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Cupertino Teens
• IBM Watson on Bluemix
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AI for NLP
entity identification
10 million minutes of experience
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2 million minutes of experience
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Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation
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Value migrates to transformation – becoming our future selves; people, businesses, nations = service system entities
Pine & Gilmore (1999)
Transformation
Roy et al (2006)
Data
Osati (2014)
Experience
Life Log
Courses
• 2015
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025
• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better
professional X.”
• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1
week
• 2035
• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a
startup.”
• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they
know themselves
• 2055
• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
• Most people have 100 digital workers.
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Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building blocks just
keep getting better?
Learning to program:
My first program
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Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972
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Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…
Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
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IBM Image Tagging
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Today: November 10, 2017
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IBM
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Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles
Occupations = Many Tasks
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Watson Discovery Advisor
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accelerating regional development
65
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 66
Microsoft acquiring GitHub $7.5B
2018 John Marks on Open Source
Models will run the world
Why SW is eating the world
Types: Progression of models
Models = instruction set of future
12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 67
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
Cognitive
Tool
Cognitive
Assistant
Cognitive
Collaborator
Cognitive
Coach
Cognitive
Mediator
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 68
AI Fairness 360
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 69
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 70
Step Comment
GitHub Get an account and read the guide
Learn 3 R's - Read, Redo, Report Read (Medium/arXiv), Redo (GitHub), Report (Jupyter Notebook)
Kaggle Compete in a Kaggle competition
Leaderboards Compete to advance AI progress
Figure Eight Generate a set of labeled data (also Mechanical Turk)
Design New Challenges build an AI system that can take and pass any online course, then
switch to tutor-mode and help you pass
Open Source Guide Establish open source culture in your organization
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 71
Prepare for AI Future
• Do you have a GitHub account? Get it.
• Yes: proceed
• No: sign up
• Do you program? Either OK, partnering is best.
• Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report)
• Github master: Code, Content (Data), Community (IBM Code can help)
• No: Learn to read and execute code with partner (T2T)
• Do you have favorite AI leaderboards?
• Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report advances)
• Kaggle master: Combine top decorrelated solution, new solution
• No: Find a mentor with favorites, do together
• Are you AI prepared? Do you know/do data, models, solutions?
• Yes: Find favorite leaderboards you can do 3 R’s for today
• Figure-Eight master: Labeled data that matters most
• No: Wait until one model: one model that can do them all
• Then rapidly rebuild in least time, energy (“zorch”), data, code
12/12/2018
© IBM Cognitive Opentech Group 2018
72
1. Where do we get labeled data?
We create it: Figure Eight,
Mechanical Turk, etc.
2. External/internal challenge?
10M minutes from birth to adult
2M minutes from novice to expert
Not just external states, but
internal states are data as well…
The challenge of data for AI models
3. AI models as ”data” instruction set
Computer’s have instruction sets
Arithmetic, Logic, etc.
Models are becoming instructions
Models are data/experience
Trust: Two Communities
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 73
Service
Science
OpenTech
AI
Trust:
Value Co-Creation,
Transdisciplinary
Trust:
Ethical, Safe, Explainable,
Open Communities
Special Issue
AI Magazine?
Handbook of
OpenTech AI?
Resilience:
Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch
• Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to
Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a
Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin
Books.
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 74
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 75
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 76
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 77
Join the for free and get monthly newsletter from the
International Society of Service Innovation
Professionals.
Membership based non-profit professional association
promoting people-centered smart service systems
Fostering professional thought leadership of members
through joint conferences, workshops, publications,
members mentorship, and awards globally
Catalyzing and elevating industry-academia-
government collaboration in cutting edge research,
best industry practices, innovative educational
models, and policy influencing
Join us: www.issip.org
Members: 1200
+
 ~200
universities
 50
+
companies
 42
+
countries
Founders:
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 78
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 79
Our data is AI
• What do companies that profit from AI owe us?
• What do nations that profit from AI owe us?
• What do service systems entities owe service system entities?
• What value propositions and governance mechanisms connect us?
• Henry Ford: “My employees are my future customers, I should
therefore pay employees well today, so my customers pay me well
tomorrow.”
• Irene Ng: ”Your data is your future AI, we should therefore create a
market for your data today (with the help of HATDEX/AI), so your AI
will pay you well tomorrow.”
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 80
Ruskin, Unto this last… five great service professions
Gandhi’s transformation into Gandhi
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 81
so that on him falls, in great part, the responsibility for the kind of life they lead;
The lawyer, rather than countenance Injustice…
By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
12/12/2018 82
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts
Future-Ready T-Shapes
12/12/2018
© IBM UPWard 2016
83
12/12/2018
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
84
Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
What is a digital cognitive system (entity)?
12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 85
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 86
Norway
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 87
Jim from IBM – 20 years today!
12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 88
12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 89

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We b 20181212 v2

  • 1. The Future of AI Jim from IBM (Jim Spohrer) Director, Measuring AI Progress Cognitive Opentech Group (MAP COG) See Center for Opensource Data and AI Technologies (CODAIT), http://codait.org WeB2018, University of Santa Clara, CA, USA, December 12, 2018 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/web-20181212-v2 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 1
  • 2. Thank-you to the organizers 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 2 Michael Shaw Conference Chair
  • 3. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 3
  • 4. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 4
  • 5. Today’s talk • Introduction • AI at IBM: Past, Present, Future (Summary) • Types of Systems: Information Systems, Physical Symbol Systems, Service Systems, Cognitive Systems, etc. • AI at the peak of the hype cycle • What’s really going on? • Your data is becoming your AI… IA transformation • Part 1: Solving AI: Leaderboards • Roadmap and implications • Open technologies, innovation • Part 2: Solving IA: Better Building Blocks • Solving problems faster, creates new problems • Identity, social contracts, trust, resilience 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 5
  • 6. AI at IBM: Past (Nathan Rochester) 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 6
  • 7. Center for Open Source Data and AI Technologies September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation Watson West Building 505 Howard St. San Francisco, California CODAIT aims to make AI solutions dramatically easier to create, deploy, and manage in the enterprise. Relaunch of the IBM Spark Technology Center (STC) to reflect expanded mission. 36 open source developers! Improving Enterprise AI lifecycle in Open Source Gather Data Analyze Data Machine Learning Deep Learning Deploy Model Maintain Model Python Data Science Stack Fabric for Deep Learning (FfDL) Mleap + PFA Scikit-LearnPandas Apache Spark Apache Spark Jupyter Model Asset eXchange Keras + Tensorflow CODAIT codait.org 7 The following slides from Fred’s ApacheCon keynote
  • 8. IBMers using OSS IBMers contributing to OSS CODAIT Active IBM Users of Open Source (Certified to consume and/or contribute open source in 2018) 8September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation >62,000 >1,000
  • 9. 9September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
  • 10. 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
  • 12. What is a biological cognitive system (entity)? 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 12
  • 13. What is a Service System Entity? 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 14. Computer Science as Empirical Inquiry: Symbols and Search • "Computer science is the study of the phenomena surrounding computers. ... We build computers and programs for many reasons. We build them to serve society .... One of the fundamental contributions to knowledge of computer science has been to explain, at a rather basic level, what symbols are. ... Symbols lie at the root of intelligent action, which is, of course, the primary topic of artificial intelligence. For that matter, it is a primary question for all of computer science. For all information is processed by computers in the service of ends, and we measure the intelligence of a system by its ability to achieve stated ends in the face of variations, difficulties and complexities posed by the task environment… A physical symbol system is a machine that produces through time an evolving collection of symbol structures. Such a system exists in a world of objects wider than just these symbolic expressions themselves. ” • Tenth Turing Awards Lecture: Allen Newell and Herbert A. Simon, “Computer Science as Empirical Inquiry: Symbols and Search,”Communications of the ACM. vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 113-126, March,1976. Available online at: • https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~kuipers/readings/Newell+Simon-cacm-76.pdf 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 14
  • 15. Service-Dominant logic worldview and mindset Year Publication Service Resource Integrators 2004 Vargo SL, Lusch RF (2004) Evolving to a new dominant logic for marketing. Journal of marketing. 68(1):1-7. The application of specialized skills and knowledge is the fundamental unit of exchange. Operant resources are resources that produce effects 2011 Vargo SL, Lusch RF (2011) It's all B2B… and beyond: Toward a systems perspective of the market. Industrial marketing management. 40(2):181-7. The central concept in S-D logic is that service — the application of resources for the benefit of another party — is exchanged for service That is, all parties (e.g. businesses, individual customers, households, etc.) engaged in economic exchange are similarly, resource-integrating, service- providing enterprises that have the common purpose of value (co)creation — what we mean by “it is all B2B.” 2016 Vargo SL, Lusch RF. Institutions and axioms: an extension and update of service-dominant logic. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 2016 Jan 1;44(1):5-23. value creation can only be fully understood in terms of integrated resources applied for another actor’s benefit (service) within a context, including the institutions and institutional arrangements that enable and constrain value creation. To alleviate this limitation and facilitate a better understanding of cooperation (and coordination), an eleventh foundational premise (fifth axiom) is introduced, focusing on the role of institutions and institutional arrangements in systems of value cocreation: service ecosystems.12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 15
  • 16. Service Science the study of service systems entities Year Publication Service Science Service System 2007 Spohrer J, Maglio, PP, Bailey J, Gruhl, D (2007) Steps toward a science of service systems, IEEE Computer, (40)1:71-77. Services science is an emerging field that seeks to tap into these and other relevant bodies of knowledge, integrate them, and advance three goals—aiming ultimately to understand service systems, how they improve, and how they scale. The components of a service system are people, technology, internal and external service systems connected by value propositions, and shared information (such as language, laws, and measures. 2008 Spohrer, J, Vargo S, Caswell N, Maglio PP (2008) The service system is the basic abstraction of service science, HICSS-41, NY: IEEE Press, Pp. 1-10. Service science is the study of the application of the resources of one or more systems for the benefit of another system in economic exchange. Informally, service systems are collections of resources that can create value with other service systems through shared information. 2008 Maglio PP, Spohrer J (2008) Fundamentals of service science. Journal of the academy of marketing science. 36(1):18-20. Service science is the study of service systems, aiming to create a basis for systematic service innovation. Service systems are value-co-creation configurations of people, technology, value propositions connecting internal and external service systems, and shared information (e.g., language, laws, measures, and methods).12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 16
  • 17. Service Science the study of service system entities 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 17 Year Publication Service Science Service System 2009 Spohrer J, Maglio PP (2009) Service science: Toward a smarter planet. In Introduction to service engineering, Eds. Karwowski and Salvendy. Pp. 3-10 Service science is a specialization of systems science. So service science seeks to create a body of knowledge that accounts for value-cocreation between entities as they interact… Service system entities are dynamic configurations of resources. As described below, resources include people, organizations, shared information, and technology. 2012 Spohrer J, Piciocchi P, Bassano C (2012) Three frameworks for service research: exploring multilevel governance in nested, networked systems. Service Science. 4(2):147-160. SSME+D is built on top of the Service-Dominant logic (SD Logic) worldview A service system entity is a dynamic configuration of resources (at least one of which, the focal resource, is a person with rights). 2013 Spohrer J, Giuiusa A, Demirkan H, Ing D (2013) Service science: reframing progress with universities. Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 30(5):561- 569 Service science is an emerging branch of systems sciences with a focus on service systems (entities) and value cocreation (complex non- zero-sum interactions). … complex adaptive entities - service systems - within an ecology of nested, networked entities… From a service science perspective, progress can be thought of in terms of the rights and responsibilities of entities
  • 18. Service Science the study of service system entities 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 18 Year Publication Service Science Service System 2014 Spohrer J, Kwan SK, Fisk RP (2014)Marketing: a service sci ence and arts perspective, Handbook of Service Market ing Research, Eds. Rust RT, Huang MH, NY:Edward Elgar, pp. 489-526. Service science (short for Service Science, Management, Engineering, Design, Arts, and Public Policy) is an emerging transdiscipline for the (1) study of evolving service system entities and value co-creation phenomena, as well as (2) pedagogy for the education of 21st century T- shaped service innovators from all disciplines, sectors, and cultures. So like all early stage scientific communities, the language for talking about service systems and value co-creation phenomena continues to evolve. … Service system entities are economic and social actors, which configure (or integrate) resources. … A formal service system entity (SS-FSC3) is a legal, economic entity with rights and responsibilities codified in written laws. 2015 Spohrer J, Demirkan H, Lyons (2015) Social Value: A Service Science Perspective. In: Kijima K. (eds) Service Systems Science. Translational Systems Sciences, vol 2. Tokyo: Springer. Pp. 3-35. Service science is an emerging transdiscipline for the (1) study of evolving service system entities and value co-creation phenomena and (2) pedagogy for the education of twenty-first-century T-shaped service innovators from all disciplines, sectors, and cultures Formal service system entities (as opposed to informal service system entities) can be ranked by the degree to which they are governed by written (symbolic) laws and evolve to increase the percentage of their processes that are explicit and symbolic.
  • 19. Service Science the study of service system entities 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 19 Year Publication Service Science Service System 2016 Spohrer J (2016) Services Science and Societal Convergence. In W.S. Bainbridge, M.C. Roco (eds.),Handbook of Science and Technology Convergence, pp. 323-335 Service science is an emerging transdiscipline for the (1) study of evolving ecology of nested, networked service system entities and value co-creation phenomena, as well as (2) pedagogy for the education of the twenty-first- century T-shaped (depth and breadth) service innovators from all disciplines, sectors, and cultures. As service science emerges, we can begin by “seeing” and counting service system entities in an evolving ecology, working to “understand” and make explicit their implicit processes of valuing … 2016 Spohrer J (2016) Innovation for jobs with cognitive assistants: A service science perspective, In Disrupting Unemployment , Eds. Nordfors, Cerf, Seng, Missouri: Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Pp. 157-174. Service science is the emerging transdiscipline that studies the evolving ecology of nested, networked service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities. There are perhaps twenty billion formal service system entities in the world today, each governed in part by formal written laws. Every person, household, university, business, and government is a formal service system entity, but my dog, my smartphone, and my ideas are not.
  • 20. Service Science the study of service system entities 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 20 Year Publication Service Science Service System 2017 Spohrer J, Siddike MAK, Kohda Y (2017) Rebuilding evolution: a service science perspective. HICSS 50. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service system entities, complex socio-technical systems with rights and responsibilities – such as people, businesses, and nations. Service systems are dynamic configurations of people, technology, organization and information that interact through value proposition and co- create mutual value. 2019 Pakalla D, Spohrer J (2019, forthcoming) Digital Service: Technological Agency in Service Systems. HICSS 52. For the purposes of this paper, service science can be summarized as the study of the evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities, including their value co-creation and capability co- elevation mechanisms . Service systems are a type of socio- technical system, such as people, businesses, and nations, all with unique identities, histories, and reputations based on the outcomes of their interactions with other entities.
  • 21. Service Science: Conceptual Framework 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 21
  • 22. Brian Arthur - Economist • The term “technological unemployment” is from John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 lecture, “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren,” where he predicted that in the future, around 2030, the production problem would be solved and there would be enough for everyone, but machines (robots, he thought) would cause “technological unemployment.” There would be plenty to go around, but the means of getting a share in it, jobs, might be scarce. We are not quite at 2030, but I believe we have reached the “Keynes point,” where indeed enough is produced by the economy, both physical and virtual, for all of us. (If total US household income of $8.495 trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn $73,000, enough for a decent middle-class life.) And we have reached a point where technological unemployment is becoming a reality. The problem in this new phase we’ve entered is not quite jobs, it is access to what’s produced. Jobs have been the main means of access for only 200 or 300 years. Before that, farm labor, small craft workshops, voluntary piecework, or inherited wealth provided access. Now access needs to change again. However this happens, we have entered a different phase for the economy, a new era where production matters less and what matters more is access to that production: distribution, in other words—who gets what and how they get it. We have entered the distributive era. 12/12/2018 IBM #OpenTechAI 22
  • 23. Disciplines and some of the key entities they study 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 23 Computer Science: Physical Symbol System Entities AI: Digital Cognitive System Entities Chemistry: Auto-Catalytic Molecular System Entities Biology: Biological Cognitive System Entities Service science: Service system entities Service science studies the evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, as well as their outcome identities and reputations.
  • 24. Service Research • Artificial Intelligence in Service • "The theory specifies four intelligences required for service tasks—mechanical, analytical, intuitive, and empathetic—and lays out the way firms should decide between humans and machines for accomplishing those tasks.” • Huang MH and Rust RT (2018) Artificial Intelligence in Service. Journal of Service Research. 21(2):155–172. • Customer Acceptance of AI in Service Encounters: Understanding Antecedents and Consequences • "expand the relevant set of antecedents beyond the established constructs and theories to include variables that are particularly relevant for AI applications such as privacy concerns, trust, and perceptions of “creepiness.” • Ostrom AL, Foheringham D, Bitner MJ (2018, forthcoming) Customer Acceptance of AI in Service Encounters: Understanding Antecedents and Consequences. In Handbook of Service Science, Volume 2, Eds, Maglio, Kieliszewski,Spohrer,Lyons,Patricio,Sawatani. New York: Springer. Pp. x-y. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 24
  • 25. 12/12/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 25 AI (Artificial Intelligence) is popular again… you see it mentioned on billboards in SF However, pattern recognition does not equal AI Deep learning works if you have lots of data and compute power We finally have lots of data and compute power – hurray!!! So finally, deep learning for pattern recognition is working pretty well However, AI is more than deep learning for pattern recognition… AI requires commonsense reasoning – that will take another 5-10 years of research How do we know this? Look at the AI leaderboards – we will get to that…
  • 26. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 26
  • 27. Smartphones pass entrance exams? When? 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 27 … when will your smartphone be able to take and pass any online course? And then be your coach, so you can pass too?
  • 28. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 28
  • 29. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: • John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) • Marvin Minsky (MIT) • and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 29
  • 30. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 30
  • 31. Timeline: Short History 12/12/2018 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 31 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  • 32. Timeline: Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) • Terascale (2017) = $3K • Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) • Recognition (Fast) • Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) • Reasoning (Slow) • Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 3212/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  • 33. Timeline: GDP/Employee 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 33 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  • 34. Timeline: Leaderboards FrameworkAI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 34 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  • 35. Who is winning 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 35 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608112/who-is-winning-the-ai-race/
  • 36. Robots by Country • Industrial robots per 10,000 people by country 12/12/2018 IBM #OpenTechAI 36 34
  • 37. Sweden 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 37
  • 38. Economic Growth Rates 2035: AI Projected Impact 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 38
  • 39. AI Benefits • Access to expertise • “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers • Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices • ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most • AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 39
  • 40. AI Risks • Job Loss • Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence • Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 40
  • 41. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) • Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems • Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems • Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 41
  • 42. Stakeholders = service system entities • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups and Professional Associations • Regional Governments: • Cities • States • Nations 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 42 “there is nothing as practical as a good abstraction” -> service science studies service system entities
  • 43. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  • 44. Artificial Leaf • Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy science at Harvard who pioneered the use of artificial photosynthesis, says that he and his colleague Pamela Silver have devised a system that completes the process of making liquid fuel from sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And they’ve done it at an efficiency of 10 percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in other words, one-tenth of the energy in sunlight is captured and turned into fuel. That is much higher than natural photosynthesis, which converts about 1 percent of solar energy into the carbohydrates used by plants, and it could be a milestone in the shift away from fossil fuels. The new system is described in a new paper in Science. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 44
  • 45. Food from Air • Although the technology is in its infancy, researchers hope the "protein reactor" could become a household item. • Juha-Pekka Pitkänen, a scientist at VTT, said: "In practice, all the raw materials are available from the air. In the future, the technology can be transported to, for instance, deserts and other areas facing famine. • "One possible alternative is a home reactor, a type of domestic appliance that the consumer can use to produce the needed protein." • According to the researchers, the process of creating food from electricity can be nearly 10 times as energy efficient as photosynthesis, the process used by plants. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 45
  • 46. Exoskeletons for Elderly • A walker is a “very cost-effective” solution for people with limited mobility, but “it completely disempowers, removes dignity, removes freedom, and causes a whole host of other psychological problems,” SRI Ventures president Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s goal is to remove all of those areas that cause psychological-type encumbrances and, ultimately, redignify the individual." 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 46
  • 47. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 12/12/2018 47 2035 2055
  • 48. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities • Leaderboards • Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) • Read arXiv • Redo with Github • Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch • Build your open code eminence • Understand open innovation • Communities + Leaderboards 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 48 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  • 49. 12/12/2018 49 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Better Building Blocks
  • 51. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 12/12/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 51 AI for NLP entity identification
  • 52. 10 million minutes of experience 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 52
  • 53. 2 million minutes of experience 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 53
  • 54. Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 54 Value migrates to transformation – becoming our future selves; people, businesses, nations = service system entities Pine & Gilmore (1999) Transformation Roy et al (2006) Data Osati (2014) Experience Life Log
  • 55. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 12/12/2018 55 Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
  • 56. 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 56 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  • 57. Learning to program: My first program 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 57 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  • 58. 12/12/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 58 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
  • 59. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 12/12/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 59
  • 60. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 12/12/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 60
  • 61. IBM Image Tagging 12/12/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 61
  • 62. Today: November 10, 2017 12/12/2018 © IBM DBG COG 2017 62 IBM
  • 63. 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 63 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  • 64. Occupations = Many Tasks 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 64
  • 65. Watson Discovery Advisor 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 65 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  • 66. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 66 Microsoft acquiring GitHub $7.5B 2018 John Marks on Open Source Models will run the world Why SW is eating the world
  • 67. Types: Progression of models Models = instruction set of future 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 67 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ Cognitive Tool Cognitive Assistant Cognitive Collaborator Cognitive Coach Cognitive Mediator
  • 68. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 68
  • 69. AI Fairness 360 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 69
  • 70. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 70
  • 71. Step Comment GitHub Get an account and read the guide Learn 3 R's - Read, Redo, Report Read (Medium/arXiv), Redo (GitHub), Report (Jupyter Notebook) Kaggle Compete in a Kaggle competition Leaderboards Compete to advance AI progress Figure Eight Generate a set of labeled data (also Mechanical Turk) Design New Challenges build an AI system that can take and pass any online course, then switch to tutor-mode and help you pass Open Source Guide Establish open source culture in your organization 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 71
  • 72. Prepare for AI Future • Do you have a GitHub account? Get it. • Yes: proceed • No: sign up • Do you program? Either OK, partnering is best. • Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report) • Github master: Code, Content (Data), Community (IBM Code can help) • No: Learn to read and execute code with partner (T2T) • Do you have favorite AI leaderboards? • Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report advances) • Kaggle master: Combine top decorrelated solution, new solution • No: Find a mentor with favorites, do together • Are you AI prepared? Do you know/do data, models, solutions? • Yes: Find favorite leaderboards you can do 3 R’s for today • Figure-Eight master: Labeled data that matters most • No: Wait until one model: one model that can do them all • Then rapidly rebuild in least time, energy (“zorch”), data, code 12/12/2018 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group 2018 72 1. Where do we get labeled data? We create it: Figure Eight, Mechanical Turk, etc. 2. External/internal challenge? 10M minutes from birth to adult 2M minutes from novice to expert Not just external states, but internal states are data as well… The challenge of data for AI models 3. AI models as ”data” instruction set Computer’s have instruction sets Arithmetic, Logic, etc. Models are becoming instructions Models are data/experience
  • 73. Trust: Two Communities 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 73 Service Science OpenTech AI Trust: Value Co-Creation, Transdisciplinary Trust: Ethical, Safe, Explainable, Open Communities Special Issue AI Magazine? Handbook of OpenTech AI?
  • 74. Resilience: Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch • Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 74
  • 75. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 75
  • 76. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 76
  • 77. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 77 Join the for free and get monthly newsletter from the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals. Membership based non-profit professional association promoting people-centered smart service systems Fostering professional thought leadership of members through joint conferences, workshops, publications, members mentorship, and awards globally Catalyzing and elevating industry-academia- government collaboration in cutting edge research, best industry practices, innovative educational models, and policy influencing Join us: www.issip.org Members: 1200 +  ~200 universities  50 + companies  42 + countries Founders:
  • 78. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 78
  • 79. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 79
  • 80. Our data is AI • What do companies that profit from AI owe us? • What do nations that profit from AI owe us? • What do service systems entities owe service system entities? • What value propositions and governance mechanisms connect us? • Henry Ford: “My employees are my future customers, I should therefore pay employees well today, so my customers pay me well tomorrow.” • Irene Ng: ”Your data is your future AI, we should therefore create a market for your data today (with the help of HATDEX/AI), so your AI will pay you well tomorrow.” 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 80
  • 81. Ruskin, Unto this last… five great service professions Gandhi’s transformation into Gandhi 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 81 so that on him falls, in great part, the responsibility for the kind of life they lead; The lawyer, rather than countenance Injustice…
  • 82. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 12/12/2018 82 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
  • 84. 12/12/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 84 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  • 85. What is a digital cognitive system (entity)? 12/12/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 85
  • 86. 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 86
  • 87. Norway 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 87
  • 88. Jim from IBM – 20 years today! 12/12/2018 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 88
  • 89. 12/12/2018 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 89