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Nature, Extent, Causes and Issues in
Agricultural Distress
Foundation Day Seminar
National Bank for Agriculture and Rural ...
Presentation Format
• Introduction/Motivation
• Twin Dimensions of Crisis/Distress
– Agricultural and Agrarian
• Farmers’ ...
Source: IMD
12 July 2015 3Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
Two Dimensions of Crisis
• Agrarian (Livelihood)
Crisis
Distribution
Farmer (also agr labourer)
Threatening livelihood of
...
Average Annual Growth Rate of Indices
Periods Foodgrains Non-foodgrains All crops
A P Y A P Y A P Y
1981-2 to 1993-4† -0.4...
Average Annual Growth Rate of Index
of Agricultural Production, Maj Crops
Periods Rice Wht C. Cer Puls G.nut S.sm R n M Co...
Growth Rate (2004-05 prices)
Period Total GDP Agr & Allied GDP
2007–08 9.3 5.8
2008–09 6.7 0.1
2009–10 8.6 0.8
2010–11 8.9...
8
Risk Mitigation: Different Scenarios
Scenario Year Input Output Net Retu Cons CumSav
Tradi-
tional
1 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7...
Research & Extension and Investment
Items TE 1981/2-
1992/3
TE 1993/4-
2004/5
TE 2005/6-
2009/10
Research and education 4....
Share of Institutional Flow of
Agricultural Credit By Source
Year Coop RRBs SCBs All
1975–76 74.5 0.1 25.4 100.0
1983–84 5...
Month-wise Credit Disbursement by
Formal Institutions
Month 2007–08 2008–09
April 3.17 2.79
May 4.98 2.85
June 11.13 5.61
...
Credit/Area and Accounts/Holdings
Year Share of credit disbursed to
share of area operated
Share of borrowal accounts (No)...
Share of Income and Employment
Period
Share of Agriculture & Allied
in GDP, 2004–05 prices,
(%age change)
Share of Agricul...
Per capita per day
Income and Consumption
12 July 2015 14
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
< 0.01 0.01...
Expense as proportion of Net Returns
Farm size 2002–03 2012–13
< 0.01 67.2 155.6
0.01–0.4 75.2 80.3
0.41–1 76.5 65.6
1.01–...
Food Insecurity, 2011-12
Region Calorie poor Protein poor Fat poor
Rural 62.04 33.62 29.13
Urban 58.90 40.03 10.58
Total 6...
Risk and Vulnerability
Issues Demand Supply
Output,
Price,
Income
Yield risk: weather, power,
pests, spurious inputs; Not
...
Suicide rates: how to normalise
• Farmer population or farm population (the
latter includes agricultural labourers)
– Cont...
Difference in suicide rates (farmers over non-farmers),
females and males, India, 1995-2012
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1995 1996 199...
20
SMR for AP & Maharashtra
Maharashtra 1995-2012Andhra Pradesh 1995-2012
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
...
21
SMR for Chhattisgarh & Karnataka
Karnataka 1995-2012Chhattisgarh 2001-2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005...
Suicides data: grey areas
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1995-97 1998-00 2001-03 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
Self-employed O...
Debate shifts for/against a technology
• Bt cotton was expected to control only bollworms and
it succeeded in doing just t...
24
Rainfed agriculture: inclusive, sustainable and food secure
Transfer of
Technology
Knowledge-centric
TINA
MAE
12 July 2...
MAE vs TINA
Multiple Alternatives Exist (MAE) There is No Alternative (TINA)
Bottom-up (provider of knowledge work
in tand...
Concluding Remarks
• Persistence of Distress
– Agricultural: low growth, increasing vulnerability,
delinked R&E, concerns ...
Comments and Questions
Email: srijit@igidr.ac.in
Link to Paper
12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar 27
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Nature, Extent, Causes and Issues in Agricultural Distress

These slides are from a presentation at the Foundation Day Seminar of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), Mumbai, on 12 July 2015. The paper with the same title is available at http://works.bepress.com/srijit_mishra/109/

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Nature, Extent, Causes and Issues in Agricultural Distress

  1. 1. Nature, Extent, Causes and Issues in Agricultural Distress Foundation Day Seminar National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) Mumbai, India 12 July 2015 Link to Paper Srijit Mishra
  2. 2. Presentation Format • Introduction/Motivation • Twin Dimensions of Crisis/Distress – Agricultural and Agrarian • Farmers’ Suicides: Interrelated factors – Demand and Supply side • Data, Debate, and Livelihood – Transfer of technology vs Knowledge-centric • Concluding Remarks 12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar 2
  3. 3. Source: IMD 12 July 2015 3Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  4. 4. Two Dimensions of Crisis • Agrarian (Livelihood) Crisis Distribution Farmer (also agr labourer) Threatening livelihood of all those dependent on agriculture [Displacement of people] • Agricultural (Developmental) Crisis Production Farm Inappropriate designing of programmes and inadequate allocation of resources [Displacement of ideology] 12 July 2015 4 Source: GoI (2007), Reddy and Mishra (2009), and Mishra and Reddy (2011) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  5. 5. Average Annual Growth Rate of Indices Periods Foodgrains Non-foodgrains All crops A P Y A P Y A P Y 1981-2 to 1993-4† -0.48 2.45 2.54 1.60 3.24 1.71 0.08 2.80 2.19 1993-4 to 2007-8‡ 0.02 1.11 1.28 0.90 2.24 1.20 0.33 2.16 1.89 1993-4 to 2004-5‡ -0.26 0.03 0.53 0.71 -0.03 -0.97 0.05 0.35 0.35 2007-8 to 2013-4§ 0.65 2.38 1.79 2.21 3.29 1.22 1.45 2.86 1.52 Source: RBI (2014b) Note: †, ‡, and § indicate triennium ending 1981-2, 1993-4 and 2007-8, respectively. A, P and Y denote area, production and yield, respectively. 12 July 2015 5Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  6. 6. Average Annual Growth Rate of Index of Agricultural Production, Maj Crops Periods Rice Wht C. Cer Puls G.nut S.sm R n M Co.tn Ru.br 1981–2 to 1993–4† 2.84 3.59 -1.44 -0.43 -1.70 -1.48 4.93 1.00 8.33 1993–4 to 2004–5‡ -0.33 0.94 -0.42 -1.20 -6.89 -1.57 0.11 2.02 4.41 2007–8 to 2013–4§ 1.34 3.15 -0.59 4.04 -7.37 -3.91 4.31 4.25 1.76 Source: RBI (2014b) Note: †, ‡, and § indicate triennium ending 1981-2, 1993-4 and 2007-8, respectively. 12 July 2015 6Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  7. 7. Growth Rate (2004-05 prices) Period Total GDP Agr & Allied GDP 2007–08 9.3 5.8 2008–09 6.7 0.1 2009–10 8.6 0.8 2010–11 8.9 8.6 2011–12 6.7 5.0 2012–13 4.5 1.4 2013–14 4.7 4.7 Source: GoI (2015b) 12 July 2015 7Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  8. 8. 8 Risk Mitigation: Different Scenarios Scenario Year Input Output Net Retu Cons CumSav Tradi- tional 1 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 2 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 1.4 3 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 2.1 4 1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.1 0.0 Input Intensive 1 3.0 6.0 3.0 1.8 1.2 2 3.0 6.0 3.0 1.8 2.4 3 3.0 6.0 3.0 1.8 3.6 4 3.0 0.0 -3.0 0.6 0.0 Sustain- able 1 1.5 4.5 3.0 1.5 1.5 2 1.5 4.5 3.0 1.5 3.0 3 1.5 4.5 3.0 1.5 4.5 4 1.5 0.0 -1.5 1.2 1.8 12 July 2015 Source: Mishra (2014c) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  9. 9. Research & Extension and Investment Items TE 1981/2- 1992/3 TE 1993/4- 2004/5 TE 2005/6- 2009/10 Research and education 4.25 6.28 9.00 Extension 6.15 0.93 5.14 12 July 2015 9 Items TE 1981/2- 1993/4 TE 1993/4- 2004/5 TE 2005/6- 2010/1 Investment, agriculture 2.23 6.43 8.52 Public Investment, agriculture -4.46 2.25 12.50 Source: Dev, Mishra and Pandey (2014) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  10. 10. Share of Institutional Flow of Agricultural Credit By Source Year Coop RRBs SCBs All 1975–76 74.5 0.1 25.4 100.0 1983–84 57.8 5.2 37.1 100.0 1993–94 61.3 5.9 32.7 100.0 2003–04 30.9 8.7 60.3 100.0 2013–14 16.9 11.6 71.5 100.0 12 July 2015 10 Source: GOI (2007) and NABARD (personal communication) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  11. 11. Month-wise Credit Disbursement by Formal Institutions Month 2007–08 2008–09 April 3.17 2.79 May 4.98 2.85 June 11.13 5.61 July 6.99 6.69 August 8.68 5.98 September 4.73 8.67 October 7.48 5.69 November 6.95 6.96 December 9.79 11.01 January 4.11 10.21 February 7.60 10.45 March 24.39 23.09 All 100.00 100.00 12 July 2015 11 Source: GOI (2009) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  12. 12. Credit/Area and Accounts/Holdings Year Share of credit disbursed to share of area operated Share of borrowal accounts (No) to share of operational holdings (No) Marginal Small Other Marginal Small Other 1981–82 2.41 1.24 0.72 0.90 1.28 1.01 1991–92 1.84 1.33 0.71 0.72 1.77 1.19 2002–03 0.96 1.25 0.93 0.49 2.79 3.25 2012–13† 1.11 1.30 0.78 0.54 3.28 3.09 12 July 2015 12 Source: NSSO (c.1993, 2014b) and RBI (2014b) † Credit data for 2011-12 (latest available) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  13. 13. Share of Income and Employment Period Share of Agriculture & Allied in GDP, 2004–05 prices, (%age change) Share of Agriculture & Allied in Employment, UPSS, (%age change) 1972–73 38.6 73.9 1993–94 28.2 (10.4) 63.9 (10.0) 1999–00 23.2 (5.0) 60.2 (3.7) 2004–05 19.0 (4.2) 56.5 (3.7) 2009–10 14.6 (4.4) 53.2 (3.3) 2011–12 14.4 (0.2) 48.9 (4.3) 12 July 2015 13 Sources:: RBI (2014b), GoI (2007), and NSSO (2011, 2014a) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  14. 14. Per capita per day Income and Consumption 12 July 2015 14 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 < 0.01 0.01-0.4 0.41-1 1.01-2 2.01-4 4.01-10 10 + All sizes Income/ConsumptioninRupees Farm sizes in hectares, ha Income Consumption Source: NSSO (2014c) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  15. 15. Expense as proportion of Net Returns Farm size 2002–03 2012–13 < 0.01 67.2 155.6 0.01–0.4 75.2 80.3 0.41–1 76.5 65.6 1.01–2 74.3 61.8 2.01–4 71.9 65.2 4.01–10 80.7 63.3 10 + 88.1 68.9 All sizes 76.3 65.4 12 July 2015 15 Source: Satyasai (2015) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  16. 16. Food Insecurity, 2011-12 Region Calorie poor Protein poor Fat poor Rural 62.04 33.62 29.13 Urban 58.90 40.03 10.58 Total 61.06 35.62 23.35 12 July 2015 16 Source: Preliminary estimate as part of an ongoing work with L Hari Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  17. 17. Risk and Vulnerability Issues Demand Supply Output, Price, Income Yield risk: weather, power, pests, spurious inputs; Not profitable; Poor returns Increased price volatility; subsidies in US/EU; low tariff; MSP not always functional; Futures-virtual Input Supplier-induce-demand; Deskilling; Increasing costs – tragedy of commons Poor link - research and extension; unregulated private suppliers; Inadequate pub investment Credit Formal – not timely; repayment difficult yield/price shocks; System draws farmers into credit; Consumerism Decline in branches; decline in agricultural/net bank credit (direct); Increasing reliance on informal sources at higher interest burden Other Dominance of lender/input dealer; higher family size; lack of social support Interlinked markets; Non-farm option is limited; Pub health response (farmers); Pesticide avalability 1712 July 2015 Source: Mishra (2008) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  18. 18. Suicide rates: how to normalise • Farmer population or farm population (the latter includes agricultural labourers) – Contextualising from Australia/Europe/North America - Peter Mayer (2010) Establet (2012) • Farmer population or operational holdings – Ignoring land partitioning - (Plewis 2014) • Non-farmer population (use workers only) – Inappropriate classifications 1812 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  19. 19. Difference in suicide rates (farmers over non-farmers), females and males, India, 1995-2012 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Differenceinsuiciderates (farmersovernon-farmers) Females Males 1912 July 2015 Source: Mishra (2014b) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  20. 20. 20 SMR for AP & Maharashtra Maharashtra 1995-2012Andhra Pradesh 1995-2012 10 20 30 40 50 60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SuicideMortalityRate Male Farmer Male Non-farmer 10 20 30 40 50 60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SuicideMortalityRate Male Farmer Male Non-farmer 12 July 2015 Source: Mishra (2014b) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  21. 21. 21 SMR for Chhattisgarh & Karnataka Karnataka 1995-2012Chhattisgarh 2001-2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SuicideMortalityRate Male Farmer Male Non-farmer 20 30 40 50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SuicideMortalityRate Male Farmer Male Non-farmer Source: Mishra (2014b) 12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  22. 22. Suicides data: grey areas 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1995-97 1998-00 2001-03 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 Self-employed Others Others 22 Source: Mishra (2014b) 12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  23. 23. Debate shifts for/against a technology • Bt cotton was expected to control only bollworms and it succeeded in doing just that” Kranthi, Bt Cotton Q&A (2012) • “…A success story for the environment and local welfare” Finnish Institute of Biotechnology (VIB, 2012) • “False hype and failed promises … crisis continues with crop failure and suicides” Coalition for a GM-Free India (2012) • Bt cotton and suicides: an assessment (suicides is long term - link with Bt is neither necessary nor sufficient, indirectly linked through Bt costs and indebtedness). Gruère and Sengupta (2011) 2312 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  24. 24. 24 Rainfed agriculture: inclusive, sustainable and food secure Transfer of Technology Knowledge-centric TINA MAE 12 July 2015 Source: Mishra, Ravindra and Hesse (2013) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  25. 25. MAE vs TINA Multiple Alternatives Exist (MAE) There is No Alternative (TINA) Bottom-up (provider of knowledge work in tandem with user) Top-down (provider of technology is superior to user) Context-specific – requires an understanding of system dynamics Crop-specific – involves inputs/technology application to enhance production Emphasis on risk reduction Emphasis on efficiency (output/unit input) Extensive involves marginal land spread over larger areas Input-intensive in areas with better soils and with access to water through irrigation Integration of mixed and multiple crops with livestock Specialization that espouses mono- cropping Production is dependent on commons Production in owner-operated lands 12 July 2015 25 Source: Mishra (2014a), Mishra, Ravindra and Hesse (2013) Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar
  26. 26. Concluding Remarks • Persistence of Distress – Agricultural: low growth, increasing vulnerability, delinked R&E, concerns of credit – Agrarian: declining share of pie, low farm inome, food insecurity • Farmers’ suicides: Interrelated factors – Output (income and yield), input, credit, others – Need for appropriate reporting and measurement – Livelihood issues are important – Multiple alternatives exist (MAE) 12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar 26
  27. 27. Comments and Questions Email: srijit@igidr.ac.in Link to Paper 12 July 2015 Srijit Mishra, NABARD Foundation Day Seminar 27

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