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Petroleum resources reserves

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Resources and Reserves are the foundation assets to all E&P companies. Valuation of E&P companies is based on these numbers in their book! It is the most important asset of any E&P company. In Fortune 500 (http://fortune.com/global500/ ) 2,3,4,5,6 11 & 12 are E&P.
This presentation gives an overview to what goes into this MOST IMPORTANT number. You may need to check some basic terms and backup to get a fuller understandign

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Petroleum resources reserves

  1. 1. PETROLEUM RESOURCES AND RESERVES FOUNDATION AND PRINCIPLES Monday 08 April 2016 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 1
  2. 2. Petroleum Resources - Outline 1. Petroleum Resources – Types i. Conventional ii. Unconventional 2. Volumes of Petroleum i. In Reservoir ii. At Point-of-Sale (Production) 3. Principles of Estimation 4. Standards and Terminology 5. Uncertainty and Assessment 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 2
  3. 3. Petroleum Resources & Reserves • Estimated volumes of oil & gas in an area of investigation. • Determined indirectly from may different methods of investigation • Inherent uncertainty in the relationship between the measurement – volumes of oil & gas exists • The determined volumes and their value are of strategic importance in company – national and global economics • Are treated as “Assets” in the company books • Determines the valuation of the company and assets of nations. 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 3
  4. 4. Petroleum resource - types • Petroleum resources are volumes of oil & gas that occur as deposits in the layers of earth • In principle these are similar to the other mineral deposits • Rocks in the crust of earth have pore-space that is filled with – i) Water ii) Gases and iii) Petroleum – Petroleum occurs in 2 primary phases : i) Oil and ii) Gas • Significant quantities (that can be discovered and produced) occur in 2 types of deposits : i) Conventional : discrete accumulations – with map boundaries & distinct hydrodynamic realms ii) Unconventional : continuous accumulations in a wide area & not affected by or separated by distinct hydrodynamic realm (from the pervasive water) 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 4
  5. 5. Types of Petroleum Resources Conventional Confined to clear areas of Petroleum Unconventional Large unconfined areas have variable volumes 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 5 The difference in nature of these 2 types determines the methods of assessment and recovery
  6. 6. Types of Petroleum Resources 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 6 Conventional : discrete accumulations – with map boundaries & distinct hydrodynamic realms Unconventional : continuous accumulations in a wide area & not affected by or separated by distinct hydrodynamic realm
  7. 7. Volumes of Petroleum Reservoir • The amount of Oil & Gas that occurs in the subsurface – Yet to be discovered = Prospective (opportunity) – Discovered (Known) • Undeveloped – Value yet to be realized • Developed – Value is realized and mechanism to produce and sell are in-place. – Produced - Volumes produced and sold (monetized) • Volumes are in the conditions of the deposit (Reservoir) – Reservoir = Petroleum Deposit in the subsurface. Reserves (Saleable) • The Amount of Oil & Gas that is or can be produced and sold at given time. – Discovered + Developed – Engineering and processing facilities are built – Operational aspects of the reservoir and its facilities are known (in-place) • Volumes are in the surface conditions of extraction, processing, transportation and sale. (Reserves) – Field = Petroleum reservoir that is developed and producing (ready). – Reserves = Volumes a field is capable of production and sale. 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 7
  8. 8. Resources : Reserves Classification System Stages of Discovery and Development 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 8 ↑ Producing ↑ Developing ↑ Design ↑ Appraisal ↑ Discovery ↑ Prospect ↑ Play ↑ Basin 1. Resource = Not established for commercial recovery a. Prospective = Not yet discovered – estimated from Geological Chance b. Contingent = Discovered, yet not established as commercial project 2. Reserve = Established for commercial recovery
  9. 9. Industry Classification of Resources – Reserves Basin •Large area with Petroleum System Play •Identified components of effective Petroleum System Prospect •Discrete Accumulations •Predicted volumes Field •Drilled and discovered HC 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 9
  10. 10. E&P Organization & Reserves 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 10 Production & Operations Field Development Appraisal & Commerciality Exploration (Basin, Play and Prospect analysis) Business Development (Acquire Blocks)
  11. 11. Resources in-place 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 11 http://www.epgeology.com/general-discussion-f29/hciip-formula-t5776.html
  12. 12. Equation for Resources in-place 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 12 http://www.epgeology.com/general-discussion-f29/hciip-formula-t5776.html
  13. 13. Reservoir Volumes - HCIIP In-Place Hydrocarbons • HCIIP = Volume of Petroleum in-place within the reservoir – Volume of Reservoir Rock (Gross-Rock Volume GRV) – Part of GRV that is made of Pore-Space (Pore-Rock Volume PRV) – Part of PRV that is filled with Petroleum (Hydrocarbon Pore Volume HCPV) • Reservoir are made of 3D of space – GRV = Volume of Space – PRV = GRV * Average Porosity – HCPV= PRV * Average Saturation Shc • All these parameters are estimated from samples taken from 1 or more wells drilled in the reservoir – Geophysical methods like seismic support the estimates – Techniques like Well-Logs, Well-Tests, PVT analysis etc. support Computing methods 1. GRV - Area of the Closure - Average Thickness - 3D Volume above FWL 2. PRV - Porosity samples (Core/ well log) 3. HCPV - Saturation measurements (well log) - Saturation Height function (Reservoir Rock types) 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 13
  14. 14. Uncertainty in Volumes and Potential : Resources & Reserves Parameters All these are : a. Spatial variables b. Sampled mostly by wells c. Estimated indirectly from physical measurements d. Change in different directions -- Anisotropy e. Influenced by trends and other causes -- Non- Stationary f. Difficult to determine {Measure & bind} Nature of Uncertainty 1. Sample distribution of the parameters (GRV, NTG,Ø, Sg, FVF) ? Minimum ? Maximum ?Most-Likely 1. Reservoir Average of the Parameters (Population) 2. Other dependencies 3. Methods of assessment of Ranges 4. Assessment of Quantification of Uncertainty 5. Impact on Resource in-place 6. Impact on Reserves 08-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 14
  15. 15. Resource Estimation Volumetric Equation Average & Ranges Distribution & Estimation Monte Carlo Map Based X,Y,p data Map Framework Interpolation Method Geostatistics 3D Model Based X,Y,Z,p data Model Framework Parameter Interpolation Simulation 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 15
  16. 16. Towards Reserves Development Scheme Production Operations Geology: Faults & Facies, Stratigraphy Rock-Fluid interactions Formation Volume Factor (FVF) HCIIP Connectivity Wells (V|H) & Spacing Rate of Flow Ease of Flow (Permeability) Fluid Phases 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 16
  17. 17. Standards & Methods PRMS (Petroleum Resource Management System) • Standard classification methods – SPE & AAPG • Categories of “Uncertainty” – Technical • HCIIP • Recovery Efficiency – Commercial • Market | Prices | Contracts • Classification of “Commerciality” Methods for estimation 1. Analytical – Analog 2. Volumetric – Equation – Maps – 3D Models 3. Material Balance 4. Production Performance Analysis 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 17
  18. 18. Methods of Estimation Parameters & Results are Determined as most-likelyDeterministic •A single value for each sample in the parameter •Single value of HCIIP or Reserves estimated •Classified as “Proved – Probable – Possible” or “1P – 2P – 3P” Realizations Method. 3 or more deterministic estimatesScenario •Using Deterministic Method as foundation •Ranges of Parameters and Results are created as Scenarios •Assigned Low-Medium-High case of likelihood Statistical uncertainty of Samples, Parameters and ResultsProbabilistic •Sample data for each Parameter is assessed for their Probability and Distributions •Results are derived by random sampling of the parameters (Monte Carlo) or by Other statistical simulation •Large number of realizations are created and ranked (P10-P50-P90) 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 18 http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf Chapter-5
  19. 19. At the End • Reserve reporting is very sensitive aspect regulatory reports in all E&P companies • Reserves define “THE GOAL” and “THE RESULT” of the E&P company • It is nearly impossible to exactly estimate the HCIIP or the Reserves • Different methods carry sets of advantages and disadvantages – there is no clear winner • Integrity and Process plays important role in fair and consistent assessment 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 19
  20. 20. An Example of Resource and Reserve Estimation A-For Apple Field MMRA Reserve Analysis Zone Name: Sandstone Country: Ireland Business Unit: Domestic 2 Basin: Play: Stratigraphic Analysis Run Date: 24-10-2012 18:03:47 by: K-Katy Status: Prospect Pre-Drill http://www.roseassoc.com/software-oil-gas-prospect-play-portfolio/multi-method-risk-analysis/
  21. 21. Net Rock Volume A-For Apple Field, Sandstone, Domestic 2 Gross Rock Volume Percent Trap Fill Net to Gross Ratio Net Rock Volume Area (for Net Pay Cross Check) Average Net Pay (Implied) (Million cubic metres) (%) (%) (Million cubic metres) (sq km) (metres) P99 191.705 100.0 15.3 53.776 NA NA P90 300.000 100.0 24.7 98.549 NA NA Mode 432.408 100.0 35.5 139.601 NA NA P50 519.615 100.0 37.3 189.110 NA NA Mean (P99- >P01) 563.644 100.0 37.4 209.313 NA NA P10 900.000 100.0 50.0 363.425 NA NA P01 1,408.417 100.0 59.8 624.866 NA NA Shape LOGNORMAL NORMAL NORMAL OUTPUT NA NA Input Values P90=300.00 P10=900.00 P90=100.00 P10=100.00 P90=25.00 P10=50.00 NA NA NA Clipping LClip=None HClip=None LClip=None HClip=None LClip=None HClip=None NA NA NA Correlation NA NA 0% to GRV NA NA NA Results above after Input Truncations are applied (0%->100%). Max % Fill Allowed is 100% NRV P10/P90 = 3.7 NA NA CROSSCHECK 24-Oct-12 P99 P98 P95 P90 P80 P70 P60 P50 P40 P30 P20 P10 P05 P02 P01 10 100 1,000 CumulativeProbability>>> Net Rock Volume 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 200 400 600 800 NRV P99 to P01 Gross Rock Volume Net to Gross Ratio Area Average Net Pay Percent Trap Fill NRV Mean NotesSet Net Rock Volume MMRA Analysis: A-For Apple Field, Sandstone (Domestic 2) 08-04-2016 21
  22. 22. HC Recovery Yield A-For Apple Field, Sandstone, Domestic 2 Calculated Yield Oil Raw Gas Average Porosity(%) AverageHydrocarbon Saturation(%) PrimaryRecovery Efficiency(%) OilFormationVolume Factor(reservoir/stock tankunits) SolutionGasYield (SCF/Stdbbl) SolutionGasRecovery Efficiency(%) PrimaryRecovery Efficiency(%) GasExpansionFactor (standard/reservoir units) CondensateYield(bbls CondperMMCF) CondensateRecovery Efficiency(%) OilRecoverableYield (bblsperacre-foot) GasRecoverable Yield (MCFperacre-foot) Shrinkage&Surface Loss(Adjustmentof TotalRawGastoSales OilProportion (%ofreservoirvolume) P99 12.4 47.3 NA NA NA NA 41.8 255.7 NA NA NA 546.2 0.0 0.0 P90 16.2 54.9 NA NA NA NA 50.1 280.0 NA NA NA 751.9 0.0 0.0 Mode 20.6 63.3 NA NA NA NA 59.9 311.4 NA NA NA 1,134.1 0.0 0.0 P50 20.6 64.5 NA NA NA NA 60.0 311.7 NA NA NA 1,062.9 0.0 0.0 Mean (P99- >P01) 20.6 64.6 NA NA NA NA 60.0 311.8 NA NA NA 1,079.5 0.0 0.0 P10 25.0 74.3 NA NA NA NA 70.1 343.8 NA NA NA 1,437.3 0.0 0.0 P01 28.7 82.2 NA NA NA NA 78.3 371.6 NA NA NA 1,833.8 0.0 0.0 Shape NORMAL NORMAL NA NA NA NA NORMAL NORMAL NA NA NA OUTPUT NORMAL BETA Input Values P90=16.00 P10=25.00 P90=55.00 P10=74.00 NA NA NA NA P90=50.00 P10=70.00 P90=280.00 P10=344.00 NA NA NA NA P90=0.00 P10=0.00 P90=0.00 P10=0.00 Clipping LClip=None HClip=None LClip=None HClip=None NA NA NA NA LClip=None HClip=None LClip=None HClip=None NA NA NA NA LClip=None HClip=None LClip=None HClip=None Correlation NA 0% to Porosity NA NA NA NA 0% to Porosity NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Selected Products: Secondary Products: O&G Recoverable Yield P10/P90 = NA 1.9 Reservoir Parameters 24-Oct-12 Surf Loss (%) Oil Prop (%) HC Rec Yield Estimating Mode: COMPONENTS Primary Oil Components Primary Gas Components Primary Gas P99 P98 P95 P90 P80 P70 P60 P50 P40 P30 P20 P10 P05 P02 P01 100 1,000 10,000 CumulativeProbability>>> HC Rec Yield 0 0 0 1 1 1 Oil Recoverable Yield Oil Yield P99 to P01 Oil Rec. Eff. Porosity HCSaturation Oil FVF Oil Yield M ean 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Gas Recoverable Yield Gas Yield P99 to P01 Porosity Gas Rec. Eff. HCSaturation Gas GEF Gas Yield M ean NotesSet HC Rec Yield MMRA Analysis: A-For Apple Field, Sandstone (Domestic 2) 08-04-2016 22
  23. 23. A-For Apple Field, Sandstone, Domestic 2 Oil Raw Gas Oil Total Cond Non- Assoc Soln MMB O BCF MMB O MMB O BCF BCF MMBOE MMBOE MMBOE P99 0.00 79.75 0.00 0.00 47.57 0.00 7.93 NA NA P90 0.00 151.35 0.00 0.00 91.58 0.00 15.26 NA NA Mode 0.00 236.88 0.00 0.00 149.77 0.00 24.96 NA NA P50 0.00 319.40 0.00 0.00 198.28 0.00 33.05 NA NA Mean (P99- >P01) 0.00 368.79 0.00 0.00 231.41 0.00 38.57 NA NA P10 0.00 673.67 0.00 0.00 428.32 0.00 71.39 NA NA P01 0.00 1183.24 0.00 0.00 769.65 0.00 128.27 NA NA Pg- Chance of Geologic Success (>=Ab Min resource) Pc- Chance of Commercial Success (>=MCFS) (Option is OFF) Pe- Chance of Economic Success (>=MEFS) (Option is OFF) 31.1% NA NA 24-Oct-12 Simulation P10/P90 Ratio=4.7 versus Predicted: Ampl with Downdip Conformance: 2 - 4 Liquids Sales Gas Above Commercial Threshold (Option is OFF) Current settings... Estimating method: VOLUMETRIC (Net Rock Volume X HC Yield) Intermediate Simulation: 5000 Iterations Resources Simulation: 15000 Iterations Truncations: Input= 0.00/1.00 Output= 0.00/1.00 Raw Gas Surface Loss: NONE Percentile Sorting: Each product sorted individually. (Warning...resource components will not sum across to HC Equiv.) Chance of Success >> Above Economic Threshold (Option is OFF) Simulation Not Current Resources Prospective Undiscovered Recoverable Resources Original In Place Total Geologic Pre-Drill Mode: EXPLORATION PROSPECT P99 P98 P95 P90 P80 P70 P60 P50 P40 P30 P20 P10 P05 P02 P01 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00 CumulativeProbability>>> Resources Economic reso urces M MBOE Comm ercial resources MM BOE Geolo gic re source s MMBOE Th reshold resource component MMBOE In-place resources MM BOE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Geologic EUR (Equivalent) EUR P99 to P01 Net Rock Volume Gas Yield Oil Yield Productive Area Productive Area EUR Mean Simulation Settings Notes MMRA Analysis: A-For Apple Field, Sandstone (Domestic 2) 08-04-2016 23
  24. 24. Chance Checklist A-For Apple Field, Sandstone, Domestic 2 24-Oct-12 EXPLORATION PROSPECT Chance Success Ratings ( 0.00-1.00 ) Confidence of P99 Resources: 7.93 MMBO 0.80 0.80 MINIMUM FACTOR 0.80 High Good Lots Confidence of P99 Resources: 7.93 MMBO 0.90 0.90 0.90 MINIMUM FACTOR 0.90 Confidence of P99 Resources: 7.93 MMBO 0.70 0.60 0.60 Low Bad Good Poor Limited Reservoir MINIMUM FACTOR 0.60 News News Confidence of P99 Resources: 7.93 MMBO 0.90 "Coin Toss" 0.90 0.90 MINIMUM FACTOR 0.90 Fwd $ Ready to Drill ($MM): Confidence of P99 Resources: 7.93 MMBO Value of Information EMV ($MM): 0.85 Date: 0.80 G&G/Eng Estimator(s): 24-Oct-12 0.90 Peer Review: 0.90 RCT Review: MINIMUM FACTOR 0.80 Manager Review: 31.1% 31.1% Directions: The default value for each chance factor is 1.0. Use the Chance Adequacy Matrix shown below to guide the assessment of each factor or sub-factor (not the overall chance of geologic, appraisal or development success. This program uses the “weak link” (i.e. – the smallest sub-factor is used whenever values for more than one are entered) approach in assigning values for each factor. Enter comments by clicking the Comments icon. SOURCE COMPONENTS Quantity/Volume (include Monetizable Product) Quality/Richness CHANCE ADEQUACY MATRIXMaturation Timing of Expulsion 0.0 - 0.2 TIMING/ MIGRATION COMPONENTS Timing of Closure / Trap 0.8 - 1.0 0.4 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.8 Effective Migration Pathway 0.2 - 0.4 If additional technical work is required to move this prospect to Ready-To-Drill status, capture details in the Risk Mitigation section of the Comments icon.Data Quality Reservoir Performance RESERVOIR COMPONENTS 0.3 - 0.45 0.45 - 0.55Presence Quality 0.55 - 0.7 CLOSURE COMPONENTS Map Reliability & Control Presence CONTAINMENT COMPONENTS Top / Base Seal Effectiveness EXPLORATION PROSPECT Chance of Success (calculated) Preservation from Spillage or Depletion Preservation from Degradation Uncertainty Index: 0.50 EXPLORATION PROSPECT Chance of Success OVERRIDE FINAL Chance of Success Participants: K-KatyLateral Seal Effectiveness Reservoir Critical Chance Factor(s): Confidencelevel Quality Quantity Control NotesClear Chance SubComponents MMRA Analysis: A-For Apple Field, Sandstone (Domestic 2) 08-04-2016 24
  25. 25. References 1. http://petroleumsys.blogspot.in/2010/06/petroleum-system-analysis.html 2. http://www.powershow.com/view/34434- MzVlO/SPEWPCAAPGSPEE_Petroleum_Resources_Management_System_powerpoint_ppt_presentation 3. http://www.epgeology.com/general-discussion-f29/hciip-formula-t5776.html 4. SPE Reserves : http://www.spe.org/industry/reserves.php 5. PRMS quick overview: http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_guide_non_tech.pdf 6. PRMS guide: http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Petroleum_Resources_Management_System_2007.pdf 7. PRMS Guidelines 2011: http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf 8. MMRA: http://www.roseassoc.com/software-oil-gas-prospect-play-portfolio/multi-method-risk- analysis/ 09-04-2016 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. Department of Earth Sciences. 25

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Resources and Reserves are the foundation assets to all E&P companies. Valuation of E&P companies is based on these numbers in their book! It is the most important asset of any E&P company. In Fortune 500 (http://fortune.com/global500/ ) 2,3,4,5,6 11 & 12 are E&P. This presentation gives an overview to what goes into this MOST IMPORTANT number. You may need to check some basic terms and backup to get a fuller understandign

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