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The Better Angels
of Our Nature
Steven Pinker
Dept. of Psychology
Harvard University
A History of Violence
•• Believe it or not:
–– Violence has been in decline for long stretches
of time
–– Today we are pro...
•• The decline of violence:
–– has not been steady
–– has not brought violence down to zero
–– is not guaranteed to contin...
•• A persistent historical development
•• Visible on scales
–– from millennia to years
–– from wars and genocides to the s...
•• Six major declines of violence
•• Their immediate causes (particular
historical events of the era)
•• Their ultimate ca...
1. The Pacification Process
1. The Pacification Process
•• Until 5,000 years ago, humans lived in
anarchy, without central government.
•• What was lif...
Life in a State of Nature?
•• Thomas Hobbes (1651):
““The life of man: solitary, poor,
nasty, brutish, and short.””
•• Jea...
Life Before States
•• Two methods to measure death rates in
nonstate societies:
–– 1. Forensic archaeology (CSI: Paleolith...
Violent
Deaths
in Pre-
historic
Societies
Sources:
Bowles, 2009;
Keeley, 1996;
White, 2011;
Human
Security Report
Project,...
•• 2. Ethnographic vital statistics
–– What is the rate of death by violence in people
who have recently lived outside of ...
Violent Deaths in Nonstate Societies
Sources: Gat, 2006; Keeley, 1996; White, 2011; Human Security Report Project, 2008
Immediate cause:
•• Rise and expansion of states
•• ““Paxes””:
–– Romana, Islamica, Hispanica, Sinica,
Brittanica, Austral...
2. The Civilizing Process
Homicide in England, 1200-2000
Source: Eisner, 2003
Homicide in Europe, 1300-2000
Source: Eisner, 2003
Homicide in Europe, 1300-2000
Source: Eisner, 2003
Immediate Causes
•• Norbert Elias, The Civilizing Process
•• Middle ages Modernity:
1. Consolidation of central states, ki...
3. The Humanitarian Revolution
Abolition of Judicial Torture
Sources: Hunt, 2007; Mannix, 1964
Abolition of Death Penalty for
Nonlethal Crimes
•• England, 18th century:
–– 222 capital offenses, e.g., poaching, counter...
American Executions for
Crimes other than Murder, 1650-2002
Sources: Espy & Smykla, 2002; Death Penalty Information Center...
Abolition of the Death Penalty in Europe
American Executions, 1640-2010
Sources: Espy & Smykla, 2002; Death Penalty Information Center, 2010b
Other Abolitions during the
Humanitarian Revolution
•• witchhunts
•• religious persecution
•• dueling
•• blood sports
•• d...
Abolition of Slavery
What were the immediate causes of
the Humanitarian Revolution?
•• Affluence?
–– One’’s own life becomes more pleasant
High...
Per capita income, England, 1220-2000
Source: Clark, 2007
What were the immediate causes of
the Humanitarian Revolution?
•• Printing and literacy?
Efficiency in Book Production, 1470-1870
Source: Clark, 2007
English Books Published per Decade,
1475-1800
Source: Simons, 2001
Literacy in England, 1625-1925
Source: Clark, 2007
Why should literacy matter?
•• ““The Enlightenment””
•• Knowledge replaced superstition &
ignorance
–– Jews poison wells, ...
Why should literacy matter?
•• Cosmopolitanism:
–– Reading fiction, history, journalism
–– Inhabit other people’’s minds
–...
4. The Long Peace
““The 20th Century was the most violent in
history.””
Was the 20th century
really the most violent?
•• No one cites #s from any other century!
•• The ““peaceful 19th century””:...
Was the 20th century
really the most violent?
•• World War II: Deadliest in absolute
numbers
•• Not in relative numbers (%...
The 100 Worst Wars & Atrocities,
500 BCE –– 2000 CE
Source: White, 2011
Trends in Great Power War,
1500-2000
(Jack Levy)
Proportion of Years Great Powers
Fought Each Other, 1500-2000
Source: Levy & Thompson, 2011
Duration of Wars Involving a Great
Power, 1500-2000
Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
Frequency of Wars Involving a Great
Power, 1500-2000
Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
Deadliness of Wars Involving a Great
Power, 1500-2000
Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
Deaths in Wars Involving a Great
Power, 1500-2000
Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
Deaths in War, 1900-2005
Source: Lacina, Gleditsch, & Russett, 2006
The Long Peace
•• Since 1946:
–– Historically unprecedented decline in interstate war
•• Some zeroes:
–– 0 wars between US...
5. The New Peace
•• What about the rest of the world?
World Since 1946:
•• Fewer inter-state wars
•• More civil wars
–– newly independent states with inept
governments vs. insu...
Number of Wars, 1946-2008
Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
But which wars kill more
people?
Deadliness of Interstate & Civil Wars,
1950-2005
Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
Battle Deaths in Wars, 1946-2008
Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
But what about genocide?
•• Wasn’’t the 20th century ““the age of
genocide?
•• Chalk & Jonassohn, The History of Genocide:
–– ““Genocide has been practiced in all regions of the
world and during all...
A Few Pre-20th Genocides
•• Bible (Amalekites, Amorites, Canaanites,
Hivites, Hittites, Jebusites, Midianites,
Perizzites,...
•• What is the trajectory of genocide in the
20th century?
•• Do the genocides in Bosnia & Rwanda
mean that ““nothing has ...
Genocide in the 20th Century
Sources: Rummel, 1997; Political Instability Task Force, Marshall, Gurr, & Harff, 2009
Immediate causes of
the Long Peace & the New Peace
•• Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace, 1795
–– Democracy
–– Trade
–– Intern...
Democracies & Autocracies, 1946-2008
Source: Marshall & Cole, 2009
International Trade, 1885-2000
Source: Russett, 2008; Gleditsch, 2002
Membership in Intergovernmental
Organizations, 1885-2000
Source: Russett, 2008
International Peacekeeping, 1948-2008
Source: Gleditsch, 2008
6. The Rights Revolutions
Civil Rights
Lynchings, 1880-1960
Source: Payne, 2004
Hate Crime Murders of Blacks, 1996-2008
Source: FBI
Nonlethal Hate Crimes Against Blacks, 1996-
2008
Source: FBI
Whites’’ hostility to blacks, 1942-1997
Source: Gallup & NORC; Schuman, Steeh, & Bobo, 1997
Discrimination Against Minorities,
1950-2003
Source: Asal & Pate, 2005
Women’’s Rights
Rape, 1973-2008
Source: FBI National Crime Victimization Survey
Domestic violence, 1993-2005
Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics
Uxoricide & Mariticide, 1976-2005
Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics
Children’’s rights
US States with Corporal Punishment, 1954-2010
Source: Leiter, 2007
Approval of Spanking, 1954-2008
Sources: Gallup, 1999; ABC News, 2002; Straus, 2001, 2009; Carswell, 2001
Child Abuse, 1990-2006
Sources: Jones & Finkelhor, 2007; Finkelhor & Jones, 2006
School Violence, 1992-2003
Source: DeVoe et al., 2004
Gay Rights
States that have Decriminalized
Homosexuality, 1791-2009
Source: Ottosson, 2006, 2009
Anti-Gay Attitudes, US, 1973-2010
Sources: General Social Survey; Gallup, 2001, 2008, 2010
Anti-Gay Hate Crime Intimidation, US, 1996-2008
Source: FBI Hate Crime Statistics
Animal Rights
Hunting, 1977-2006
Source: General Social Survey
Vegetarianism, 1984-2009
Sources: UK Vegetarian Society; US Vegetarian Resource Group
Motion Pictures in which
Animals were Harmed, 1972-2010
Source: American Humane Association, 2010
Why Has Violence Declined?
Why Has Violence Declined?
•• One possibility: Human nature has
changed:
–– People have lost their inclinations toward
vio...
Males
% CONSIDERED KILLING ANOTHER
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Females Frequently Occasionally
Source: Kenrick & Shee...
A more likely possibility……
•• Human nature is extraordinarily complex
A More Likely Possibility:
•• Human nature comprises inclinations
toward violence……
•• AND inclinations that counteract th...
Motives for Violence:
1. Exploitation
–– rape, plunder, conquest, elimination of rivals, ..
2. Dominance
–– individual: al...
•• 4. Ideology
–– Militant religions; Nationalism; Nazism;
Communism
–– Utopian cost-benefit analysis:
–– If the ends are ...
Our Better Angels
1. Self-control
–– anticipate consequences of behavior and
inhibit violent impulses
2. Empathy
–– feel o...
Which
Historical
Developments
Bring out our
““Better
Angels””?
1. The Leviathan
(Hobbes)
1. The Leviathan
•• A state & justice system with a monopoly
on violence can:
–– eliminate the incentives for exploitative...
1. The Leviathan
•• Some historical evidence:
–– Pacifying and civilizing effects of states
–– Eruptions of violence in zo...
•• Plunder is zero-sum
•• Trade is positive sum: ““Everybody wins””
•• Improving technology allows trade of
goods & ideas
...
Gentle commerce, cont.
•• Some historical evidence:
–– Countries with open economies, greater
international trade:
•• fewe...
3. The Expanding Circle
(Charles Darwin, Peter Singer)
•• Evolution bequeathed us with a sense of
empathy
–– By default, w...
•• Increased cosmopolitanism:
–– history
–– literature
–– journalism
•• Adopt a real or fictitious person’’s perspective
M...
•• Historical evidence:
–– 17th-18th century:
•• Humanitarian Revolution preceded by the
““Republic of Letters””
–– 20th c...
•• Literacy, education, public discourse
•• Think more abstractly and universally
–– Rise above parochial vantage point
––...
•• Some historical evidence
–– Abstract reasoning abilities (IQ) increased in
the 20th century””
Source: Flynn, 2007
–– People & societies with higher
education, measured intelligence
•• commit fewer violent crimes
•• cooperate more in exp...
Why Do So Many Forces Push in
the Same Direction?
•• Violence is a social dilemma:
–– Tempting to an aggressor, but ruinou...
•• Over history, human experience & human
ingenuity gradually solve this problem
(just like other scourges of nature like
...
Implications of the
Decline of Violence
•• A reorientation of efforts toward violence
reduction from moralistic to empiric...
Implications of the
Decline of Violence
•• Reassessment of modernity:
–– Erosion of family, tribe, tradition, and religion...
•• But despite impressions, the long-term
trend (though halting and incomplete) is
that violence of all kinds is decreasin...
Miscellaneous extra slides:
Two Direct Comparisons:
% Battered Skeletons from Pre-Columbian
Hunter-Gatherer vs. State Societies
Source: Steckel & Wallis, 2009
!Kung Homicide Rate
before & after state control
Source: Lee, 1979
•• The ““age of genocide”” is the age in which
people started to care about genocide
•• Word genocide itself: coined in 19...
The better angels of our nature
The better angels of our nature
The better angels of our nature
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The better angels of our nature

  1. 1. The Better Angels of Our Nature Steven Pinker Dept. of Psychology Harvard University
  2. 2. A History of Violence •• Believe it or not: –– Violence has been in decline for long stretches of time –– Today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species’’ existence
  3. 3. •• The decline of violence: –– has not been steady –– has not brought violence down to zero –– is not guaranteed to continue
  4. 4. •• A persistent historical development •• Visible on scales –– from millennia to years –– from wars and genocides to the spanking of children and the treatment of animals
  5. 5. •• Six major declines of violence •• Their immediate causes (particular historical events of the era) •• Their ultimate causes (general historical forces interacting with human nature)
  6. 6. 1. The Pacification Process
  7. 7. 1. The Pacification Process •• Until 5,000 years ago, humans lived in anarchy, without central government. •• What was life like in this ““state of nature””?
  8. 8. Life in a State of Nature? •• Thomas Hobbes (1651): ““The life of man: solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”” •• Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1755): ““Nothing can be more gentle than man in his primitive state.””
  9. 9. Life Before States •• Two methods to measure death rates in nonstate societies: –– 1. Forensic archaeology (CSI: Paleolithic) •• What proportion of prehistoric skeletons have signs of violent trauma?
  10. 10. Violent Deaths in Pre- historic Societies Sources: Bowles, 2009; Keeley, 1996; White, 2011; Human Security Report Project, 2008
  11. 11. •• 2. Ethnographic vital statistics –– What is the rate of death by violence in people who have recently lived outside of state control (hunter-gatherers and hunter-horticulturalists)?
  12. 12. Violent Deaths in Nonstate Societies Sources: Gat, 2006; Keeley, 1996; White, 2011; Human Security Report Project, 2008
  13. 13. Immediate cause: •• Rise and expansion of states •• ““Paxes””: –– Romana, Islamica, Hispanica, Sinica, Brittanica, Australiana, Canadiana •• Tribal raiding and feuding is a nuisance to overlords
  14. 14. 2. The Civilizing Process
  15. 15. Homicide in England, 1200-2000 Source: Eisner, 2003
  16. 16. Homicide in Europe, 1300-2000 Source: Eisner, 2003
  17. 17. Homicide in Europe, 1300-2000 Source: Eisner, 2003
  18. 18. Immediate Causes •• Norbert Elias, The Civilizing Process •• Middle ages Modernity: 1. Consolidation of central states, kingdoms: •• Criminal justice was nationalized •• Feuding warlords (knights) ““King’’s justice”” 2. Growing infrastructure of commerce: •• Money, finance •• Transportation, timekeeping •• Zero-sum plunder Positive-sum trade
  19. 19. 3. The Humanitarian Revolution
  20. 20. Abolition of Judicial Torture Sources: Hunt, 2007; Mannix, 1964
  21. 21. Abolition of Death Penalty for Nonlethal Crimes •• England, 18th century: –– 222 capital offenses, e.g., poaching, counterfeiting, robbing a rabbit warren, being in the company of Gypsies, "strong evidence of malice in a child aged 7–– 14 years of age" –– by 1861: down to 4 •• US, 17th & 18th centuries: –– theft, sodomy, bestiality, adultery, witchcraft, concealing birth, slave revolt, counterfeiting
  22. 22. American Executions for Crimes other than Murder, 1650-2002 Sources: Espy & Smykla, 2002; Death Penalty Information Center, 2010
  23. 23. Abolition of the Death Penalty in Europe
  24. 24. American Executions, 1640-2010 Sources: Espy & Smykla, 2002; Death Penalty Information Center, 2010b
  25. 25. Other Abolitions during the Humanitarian Revolution •• witchhunts •• religious persecution •• dueling •• blood sports •• debtors’’ prisons •• slavery
  26. 26. Abolition of Slavery
  27. 27. What were the immediate causes of the Humanitarian Revolution? •• Affluence? –– One’’s own life becomes more pleasant Higher value on life in general
  28. 28. Per capita income, England, 1220-2000 Source: Clark, 2007
  29. 29. What were the immediate causes of the Humanitarian Revolution? •• Printing and literacy?
  30. 30. Efficiency in Book Production, 1470-1870 Source: Clark, 2007
  31. 31. English Books Published per Decade, 1475-1800 Source: Simons, 2001
  32. 32. Literacy in England, 1625-1925 Source: Clark, 2007
  33. 33. Why should literacy matter? •• ““The Enlightenment”” •• Knowledge replaced superstition & ignorance –– Jews poison wells, heretics go to hell, witches cause crop failures, children are possessed, Africans are brutish.. –– Voltaire: ““Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.””
  34. 34. Why should literacy matter? •• Cosmopolitanism: –– Reading fiction, history, journalism –– Inhabit other people’’s minds –– More empathy, less cruelty
  35. 35. 4. The Long Peace ““The 20th Century was the most violent in history.””
  36. 36. Was the 20th century really the most violent? •• No one cites #s from any other century! •• The ““peaceful 19th century””: –– Napoleonic wars (4 million deaths) –– Taiping Rebellion (20 million deaths) –– American Civil War (650,000 deaths) –– Shaka Zulu (1-2 million deaths) –– War of the Triple Alliance (60% of Paraguay) –– African slave-raiding wars (??) –– Imperial wars in Africa, Asia, south Pacific (??)
  37. 37. Was the 20th century really the most violent? •• World War II: Deadliest in absolute numbers •• Not in relative numbers (% of world population)
  38. 38. The 100 Worst Wars & Atrocities, 500 BCE –– 2000 CE Source: White, 2011
  39. 39. Trends in Great Power War, 1500-2000 (Jack Levy)
  40. 40. Proportion of Years Great Powers Fought Each Other, 1500-2000 Source: Levy & Thompson, 2011
  41. 41. Duration of Wars Involving a Great Power, 1500-2000 Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
  42. 42. Frequency of Wars Involving a Great Power, 1500-2000 Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
  43. 43. Deadliness of Wars Involving a Great Power, 1500-2000 Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
  44. 44. Deaths in Wars Involving a Great Power, 1500-2000 Sources: Levy, 1983; Correlates of War Project; PRIO
  45. 45. Deaths in War, 1900-2005 Source: Lacina, Gleditsch, & Russett, 2006
  46. 46. The Long Peace •• Since 1946: –– Historically unprecedented decline in interstate war •• Some zeroes: –– 0 wars between US & USSR –– 0 nuclear weapons used –– 0 wars between Great powers (since 1953) –– 0 wars between Western European countries •• (cf. before 1945: 2/year for 600 years!) –– 0 wars between developed countries
  47. 47. 5. The New Peace •• What about the rest of the world?
  48. 48. World Since 1946: •• Fewer inter-state wars •• More civil wars –– newly independent states with inept governments vs. insurgent movements –– both sides stoked by Cold War powers
  49. 49. Number of Wars, 1946-2008 Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
  50. 50. But which wars kill more people?
  51. 51. Deadliness of Interstate & Civil Wars, 1950-2005 Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
  52. 52. Battle Deaths in Wars, 1946-2008 Source: UCDP/PRIO; Human Security Report Project
  53. 53. But what about genocide? •• Wasn’’t the 20th century ““the age of genocide?
  54. 54. •• Chalk & Jonassohn, The History of Genocide: –– ““Genocide has been practiced in all regions of the world and during all periods in history…… We know that [in ancient times] empires have disappeared and that cities were destroyed……but we do not know what happened to the bulk of the populations involved in these events. Their fate was simply too unimportant. When they were mentioned at all, they were usually lumped together with the herds of oxen, sheep, and other livestock…… ……Looking at the available evidence from antiquity, one might develop a hypothesis that most wars at that time were genocidal in character.””
  55. 55. A Few Pre-20th Genocides •• Bible (Amalekites, Amorites, Canaanites, Hivites, Hittites, Jebusites, Midianites, Perizzites, etc.) •• Athens vs. Melos •• Rome vs. Carthage •• Mongol invasions •• Crusades •• European wars of religion •• Colonization of Americas, Africa, Australia
  56. 56. •• What is the trajectory of genocide in the 20th century? •• Do the genocides in Bosnia & Rwanda mean that ““nothing has changed””?
  57. 57. Genocide in the 20th Century Sources: Rummel, 1997; Political Instability Task Force, Marshall, Gurr, & Harff, 2009
  58. 58. Immediate causes of the Long Peace & the New Peace •• Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace, 1795 –– Democracy –– Trade –– International community •• Bruce Russett & John O’’Neal: –– All have increased in the 2nd half of the 20th –– All are statistical predictors of peace
  59. 59. Democracies & Autocracies, 1946-2008 Source: Marshall & Cole, 2009
  60. 60. International Trade, 1885-2000 Source: Russett, 2008; Gleditsch, 2002
  61. 61. Membership in Intergovernmental Organizations, 1885-2000 Source: Russett, 2008
  62. 62. International Peacekeeping, 1948-2008 Source: Gleditsch, 2008
  63. 63. 6. The Rights Revolutions
  64. 64. Civil Rights
  65. 65. Lynchings, 1880-1960 Source: Payne, 2004
  66. 66. Hate Crime Murders of Blacks, 1996-2008 Source: FBI
  67. 67. Nonlethal Hate Crimes Against Blacks, 1996- 2008 Source: FBI
  68. 68. Whites’’ hostility to blacks, 1942-1997 Source: Gallup & NORC; Schuman, Steeh, & Bobo, 1997
  69. 69. Discrimination Against Minorities, 1950-2003 Source: Asal & Pate, 2005
  70. 70. Women’’s Rights
  71. 71. Rape, 1973-2008 Source: FBI National Crime Victimization Survey
  72. 72. Domestic violence, 1993-2005 Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics
  73. 73. Uxoricide & Mariticide, 1976-2005 Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics
  74. 74. Children’’s rights
  75. 75. US States with Corporal Punishment, 1954-2010 Source: Leiter, 2007
  76. 76. Approval of Spanking, 1954-2008 Sources: Gallup, 1999; ABC News, 2002; Straus, 2001, 2009; Carswell, 2001
  77. 77. Child Abuse, 1990-2006 Sources: Jones & Finkelhor, 2007; Finkelhor & Jones, 2006
  78. 78. School Violence, 1992-2003 Source: DeVoe et al., 2004
  79. 79. Gay Rights
  80. 80. States that have Decriminalized Homosexuality, 1791-2009 Source: Ottosson, 2006, 2009
  81. 81. Anti-Gay Attitudes, US, 1973-2010 Sources: General Social Survey; Gallup, 2001, 2008, 2010
  82. 82. Anti-Gay Hate Crime Intimidation, US, 1996-2008 Source: FBI Hate Crime Statistics
  83. 83. Animal Rights
  84. 84. Hunting, 1977-2006 Source: General Social Survey
  85. 85. Vegetarianism, 1984-2009 Sources: UK Vegetarian Society; US Vegetarian Resource Group
  86. 86. Motion Pictures in which Animals were Harmed, 1972-2010 Source: American Humane Association, 2010
  87. 87. Why Has Violence Declined?
  88. 88. Why Has Violence Declined? •• One possibility: Human nature has changed: –– People have lost their inclinations toward violence •• Unlikely: –– Violence in children –– Enjoyment of vicarious violence: •• murder mysteries, Greek tragedies, Shakespearean dramas, video games, hockey, …… –– Homicidal fantasies:
  89. 89. Males % CONSIDERED KILLING ANOTHER 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Females Frequently Occasionally Source: Kenrick & Sheets, 1994
  90. 90. A more likely possibility…… •• Human nature is extraordinarily complex
  91. 91. A More Likely Possibility: •• Human nature comprises inclinations toward violence…… •• AND inclinations that counteract them –– ““The Better Angels of our Nature”” •• Historical circumstances increasingly favor our peaceable inclinations
  92. 92. Motives for Violence: 1. Exploitation –– rape, plunder, conquest, elimination of rivals, .. 2. Dominance –– individual: alpha male –– group: ethnic, racial, national, religious supremacy 3. Revenge (moralistic violence) –– vendetta, rough justice, cruel punishments
  93. 93. •• 4. Ideology –– Militant religions; Nationalism; Nazism; Communism –– Utopian cost-benefit analysis: –– If the ends are infinitely good, then •• The means can be arbitrarily violent •• Opponents are arbitrarily evil (and deserve arbitrarily severe punishment)
  94. 94. Our Better Angels 1. Self-control –– anticipate consequences of behavior and inhibit violent impulses 2. Empathy –– feel others’’ pain 3. Moral sense –– tribalism, authority, puritanism vs. fairness 4. Reason –– objective, detached analysis
  95. 95. Which Historical Developments Bring out our ““Better Angels””?
  96. 96. 1. The Leviathan (Hobbes)
  97. 97. 1. The Leviathan •• A state & justice system with a monopoly on violence can: –– eliminate the incentives for exploitative attack –– reduce the need for pre-emption, deterrence, and vengeance –– circumvent self-serving biases: •• both sides believe their opponent’’s attacks are unprovoked aggression •• both sides believe their own attacks are justified retaliation •• stokes cycles of revenge
  98. 98. 1. The Leviathan •• Some historical evidence: –– Pacifying and civilizing effects of states –– Eruptions of violence in zones of anarchy (Wild West, failed states, collapsed empires, mafias, street gangs) Sources: Keeley, 1996; Gat, 2006; Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Courtwright, 1996; Fortna, 2008; Goldstein, 2011
  99. 99. •• Plunder is zero-sum •• Trade is positive sum: ““Everybody wins”” •• Improving technology allows trade of goods & ideas –– over longer distances –– among larger groups of people –– at lower cost •• Other people become more valuable alive than dead 2. ““Gentle Commerce”” (Montesquieu, Smith, Kant)
  100. 100. Gentle commerce, cont. •• Some historical evidence: –– Countries with open economies, greater international trade: •• fewer wars •• fewer civil wars •• fewer genocides Sources: Russett & Oneal, 2001; Gartzke, 2007; Bussman & Schneider, 2007; Schneider & Gleditsch, 2010; Gleditsch, 2008; Harff, 2003, 2005
  101. 101. 3. The Expanding Circle (Charles Darwin, Peter Singer) •• Evolution bequeathed us with a sense of empathy –– By default, we apply it only to friends & family –– Over history, the circle has expanded: •• village clan tribe nation other races both sexes children other species
  102. 102. •• Increased cosmopolitanism: –– history –– literature –– journalism •• Adopt a real or fictitious person’’s perspective More sympathy toward person & kind But what expanded the circle? Sources: Batson et al., 2002, 2005, 2008; Hakemulder, 2000
  103. 103. •• Historical evidence: –– 17th-18th century: •• Humanitarian Revolution preceded by the ““Republic of Letters”” –– 20th century, second half: •• Long Peace, Rights Revolutions occurred in ““The Global Village”” –– 21st century: •• Color revolutions & Arab spring fostered by Internet, social media?
  104. 104. •• Literacy, education, public discourse •• Think more abstractly and universally –– Rise above parochial vantage point –– Harder to privilege own interests over others’’ –– Replace •• morality of Tribalism, Authority, & Puritanism with •• morality of Fairness & Universal rules –– Recognize futility of cycles of violence –– See violence as a problem to be solved rather than a contest to be won 4. The Escalator of Reason
  105. 105. •• Some historical evidence –– Abstract reasoning abilities (IQ) increased in the 20th century”” Source: Flynn, 2007
  106. 106. –– People & societies with higher education, measured intelligence •• commit fewer violent crimes •• cooperate more in experimental games •• more classically liberal attitudes •• more receptive to democracy Sources: Farrington, 2007; Burks et al., 2009; Jones, 2008; Deary et al., 2008; Rindermann, 2008
  107. 107. Why Do So Many Forces Push in the Same Direction? •• Violence is a social dilemma: –– Tempting to an aggressor, but ruinous to the victim –– In the long run, all parties are better off if violence is avoided •• The human dilemma: How to get the other guy to refrain from violence at the same time as you do
  108. 108. •• Over history, human experience & human ingenuity gradually solve this problem (just like other scourges of nature like pestilence & hunger)... •• Increasing the material, emotional, & cognitive incentives of all parties to avoid violence
  109. 109. Implications of the Decline of Violence •• A reorientation of efforts toward violence reduction from moralistic to empirical mindset: –– Not just ““Why is there war?”” but ““Why is there peace?”” –– Not just ““What are we doing wrong?”” but ““What have we doing right?””
  110. 110. Implications of the Decline of Violence •• Reassessment of modernity: –– Erosion of family, tribe, tradition, and religion –– individualism, cosmopolitanism, reason, science •• Everyone acknowledges: –– longer, healthier lives; less ignorance & superstition; richer experiences…… •• But some question the price: –– terrorism, genocide, world wars, nuclear weapons
  111. 111. •• But despite impressions, the long-term trend (though halting and incomplete) is that violence of all kinds is decreasing •• Rehabilitation of the concept of modernity and progress •• Cause for gratitude for the institutions of civilization and enlightenment
  112. 112. Miscellaneous extra slides:
  113. 113. Two Direct Comparisons:
  114. 114. % Battered Skeletons from Pre-Columbian Hunter-Gatherer vs. State Societies Source: Steckel & Wallis, 2009
  115. 115. !Kung Homicide Rate before & after state control Source: Lee, 1979
  116. 116. •• The ““age of genocide”” is the age in which people started to care about genocide •• Word genocide itself: coined in 1944

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